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About thunderman

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  1. New initiation SW of Manassas looks to have become established. Could get interesting as it moves north and begins to interact with the outflow boundary.
  2. Very concerning circulation SW of Annapolis.
  3. That 10% is still very much warranted IMO. If one of these discreet cells gets interacting with a local boundary, lookout. Red box by 4PM I think.
  4. I believe June 2008 may be the next one before that? That event was a bust.
  5. You don't see them often in these parts, but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see hatched tornado probs added by SPC tomorrow. 00z NAM soundings are wicked across northern VA and MD. Baltimore area: Northern VA:
  6. Depending on how long things stay discreet tomorrow, could be some pretty impressive supercells by Mid Atlantic standards.
  7. Does that even count as damage? I mean that's obviously Chinese steel. TS at best.
  8. Dude, you seriously need to take a step back. Go grab a beer and chill for a bit.
  9. Severe threat should increase gradually a little each day through the weekend I think. That being said, I think flooding will be the biggest issue. Some impressive PWATS modeled in the coming days.
  10. Could have a good downburst or two tomorrow. Instability and shear should support a few organized updrafts. Heavy column with PWATS of 1.5+ should make make damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threat. Notable flash flood threat, for places that get storms … which may end up being in distinct swaths, with storm motion and low level SRW roughly converging. 3 hour FFG is also under 2 inches most everywhere from Isaias.
  11. I'd say that's a legit warning:
  12. Wouldn't be surprised to see another rash of TORs in this next round rotating ashore between Topsail and Atlantic Beach.