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About thunderman

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    Elkton, Virginia
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  1. Wouldn't be surprised to see another rash of TORs in this next round rotating ashore between Topsail and Atlantic Beach.
  2. Several of these circulations are going to be rotating through the greater Wilmington area shortly.
  3. Buoy 41004 down to 993.6 near the circulation.
  4. Buoy 41004 reported 41 kts gusting to 51 kts
  5. Safford cell is looking interesting. If it can get a little more spin below 4k feet, it wouldn't be surprised to see a TOR for LWX.
  6. This. I have a feeling this may help lessen a wider spread flash flood threat across the Mid-Atlantic. Time will tell, but that is my gut feeling.
  7. Current 6 hour FFG across the area is running largely greater than or equal to 3 inches, with the exception being the metro areas and along\west of the Blue Ridge. Metro areas stand the BEST chance of seeing some serious flash flooding in my opinion, as 2"+ PWATS look largely stay along and east of I-95. If heavier 3"+ totals make it to the Blue Ridge, that would be really bad with the current 6 hour FFG there and the higher terrain … but in my experience, these tropical coastal runners have a really hard time tossing heavy precip totals into and west of CHO. Additionally, this isn't exactly a crawling system from a forward speed perspective. Of course this largely track dependent. 6 hour FFG: 1 hour FFG:
  8. Madison County cell showing some weak rotation.
  9. Mesoscale Discussion 1375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia...Northern Virginia...Southern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012305Z - 020100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening. Weather watch issuance could be needed across the region depending upon convective trends. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low in the Ohio Valley with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward from the low into southern Pennsylvania. South of the front, a moist airmass is in place with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. In response, the airmass has become moderately unstable and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the Ohio Valley extending eastward into western Maryland and northern Virginia. This activity will continue to move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours. In addition to the instability, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 to 35 kt will be supportive of at least an isolated wind damage threat. However, the threat could be more substantial if convective coverage increases. If that occurs, weather watch issuance would need to be considered. ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/01/2020
  10. Not really a whole lot yet across central and northern Virginia (as expected). Convection starting to fire in central Virginia along I64 and I'd expect this to continue north over the next few hours. Good instability and wind profile for storms in a moist environment across central and northern parts of the state. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a few SVR warned cells between now and 10PM and maybe a TOR warning or two.