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About thunderman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Elkton, Virginia
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  1. thunderman

    December obs/disco/short range

    Looks like it could be a solid thump of zr/pl for some well west of the cities.
  2. thunderman

    The Social Media Problem

    I actually kind of like the special account types for professionals (kind of like red tags here).
  3. It is no secret that the number and average quality of "forecasting" personalities on social media has gone through some changes over the last year or so. Recently, this has become even more evident with rogue personalities posting worst case scenario model output without fully understanding what it is. As a result the weather hype machine has been accelerated to a forward speed that we have rarely seen in the past. I do not think this problem is likely remedy it's self. Why? Because people like hype and will continue to return to it. From a forecasting standpoint, this makes no logical sense. This does however seem to be human nature. The evidence is in the insane number of followers that some of these personalities have. "Weatherboy Weather" alone on Facebook has over 150,000 likes. These large followings makes it difficult for other forecasting operations, such as other legit social media personalities and even the National Weather Service, to carry out their mission ... keep the public informed of impending dangerous weather, while keeping them calm. The one thing that I think has yet to be seen is how these pages are going to behave in severe weather situations. It is one thing to track a snowstorm from days out, but severe weather forecasting is an entirely different animal. You can’t go to the ECMWF and get a tornado track plot or a chart of model produced hail reports, like you can a total accumulated snowfall chart. Ideally these pages will realize they are in over their heads and grow more quite during the warm season ... essentially meaning that their hype would just be something to be dealt with from November - March. In my opinion, if this hype machine continues chugging ahead during severe season then we could face a much bigger problem. What if once SPC starts honking on an event in the 4-6 day time frame and these rogue pages start highlighting half the region of interest for a "major tornado outbreak" or a derecho. Worse yet, what if they start using radar data as evidence that an EF-4/5 tornado is headed for xyz town and advising people to flee in their vehicles? Wait, didn't we see that last severe season in Oklahoma? In a way, I think the professional community is somewhat responsible for starting the problem that we are now facing. We have some big names in the business playing right into the hype and non-science aspect of things. The Weather Channel is naming winter storms, Accuweather is claiming they can forecast exact numbers out to 45 days, etc. We stared encouraging the birth of these new "forecasters" a while ago. So now for the million dollar question. What do we, as the meteorological community, do to fix this problem that we kind of helped to create in the first place? Do we band together and start calling out these absurd forecasts publicly? Do we just let them carry on and hope they just go away?
  4. thunderman

    February 14-15 Event Obs

    Hi-res NAM sim ref looks like it's doing a pretty good job overall, including timing.
  5. thunderman

    February 14-15 Event Obs

    WHSV met just posted this. Fail ... I almost want to correct him, but I don't want to be "that guy".
  6. thunderman

    February 14-15 Event Obs

    KDCA sounding for 00z Saturday before things get started. Not real favorable verbatim. 3z sounding even looks like some freezing drizzle potential verbatim, with very light precip knocking on the western burbs. By 6z, however little or much is falling it's all snow verbatim.
  7. thunderman

    February 14-15 Event Obs

    That's a good map guys. 48 hour total is much more lit up over eastern PA/NJ
  8. thunderman

    February 14-15 Event Obs

    On a Miller A/southern stream involvement. Proceed with caution, but this could easily be a different ballgame.
  9. thunderman

    February 14-15 Event Obs

    h5 on the GFS looks good as other have commented and it closes off quick at h85 near ORF. If that holds then I would expect to see a response at the surface. Wouldn't be surprised to see some advisory level snows with that somewhere in VA/MD, assuming temps do not interfere with things. NAM MOS has held the high tomorrow in the mid 30s at Dulles last two runs, while the GFS has gradually trended downward to 33 now at 18z. Obviously the GFS probably has the best shot in general at being correct with fresh snowpack, prob 33-35 ends up being reality IMO. FWIW, IAD plumes have slowly trended up as well in support, with most members showing some accumulation now on the 15z runs. The atmosphere is generally forced from the top down. not the other way around. Look there for clues/trends as to what the model may be trying to do at the surface in future runs.
  10. Very possible I think. Holding it at 5-10 locally here for now. Would like to see another run or two of how the hi-res guidance handles the coma head/meso features this afternoon and evening before jumping on the double digit train.
  11. thunderman

    February 12-13 Storm, Part II

    Just a note on the SREF, it is still an ensemble mean folks. Have to still take spread, etc into account like you would with any ensemble.
  12. thunderman

    February 12-13 Storm, Part II

    ahh, thanks!
  13. thunderman

    February 12-13 Storm, Part II

  14. thunderman

    February 12-13 Storm, Part II

    Anyone in the know want to elaborate on what the EC ENS cluster looked like on the 12z run? Are the really as tight around the OP as the mean makes it seem?