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About thunderman

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  1. Solution does seem to be shifting more towards a NC event. That being said, this aspect of the storm is something that the models have been fighting amongst themselves with. It would take not so big changes for this to become a major, if not at least locally castrophic, event.
  2. VA threat is certainly highly dependent on how long a northern component in motion is maintained. If gets to NC/VA border, bad news all the way up to CHO.
  3. I thought the same thing. Perhaps I am missing something?
  4. 12z ECMWF brings remnant circulation over central NC and through southwest Virginia. This would be a large scale disaster for NC and central\western VA.
  5. Could be some catastrophic flooding across parts of NC and VA if that verifies.
  6. Current consensus solution looks very similar to Fran in 1996. Inland rainfall, as modeled, could be catastrophic across southern and western Virginia (especially with recent rainfall).
  7. I would be really surprised to see the actual track be as far right as the GFS. Pattern does not support it IMO, unfortunstely.
  8. Looks like it could be a solid thump of zr/pl for some well west of the cities.
  9. For far western areas along I-81 between I-64 and OKV An area of low pressure will move out of the northern Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast tomorrow and Wednesday. As it does, light precipitation will begin to overspread the area early tomorrow morning and will increase in intensity throughout the day … before beginning to taper during the overnight and possibly end as a period of snow Wednesday. Initially, there will be just enough cold air in place for some spotty flurries during the predawn hours Tuesday morning. Precipitation type will quickly shift towards freezing rain and sleet by 7:30am. As warmer air continues to move in with heavier precipitation through the day, freezing rain will transition to a plain cold rain. As typical, deeper and sheltered valleys will hold to freezing rain the longest … possibly into the late morning hours. Steady rain will decrease in intensity after midnight Tuesday night as colder air begins to filter in on the back side of the storm. Any leftover precipitation will begin to mix with sleet and snow again early Wednesday morning and eventually end as light snow/snow showers, as precipitation fully shuts off Wednesday afternoon. Wintry accumulations Tuesday will likely not amount to much at all … up to a coating of snow/sleet and up to 0.1” of ice accretion in the very coldest valleys (where freezing rain will hold on the longest). I do not expect roads to be that much of a problem tomorrow … icy spots should be limited to bridges and overpasses I think. This is not a great setup for a high impact freezing rain event … but that does not mean that slick spots cannot develop. Snow/sleet accumulations that occur Wednesday will likely total an inch or less for most. This part of the storm remains the most uncertain in terms of sensible weather. If colder air filters in more quickly than expected, then we will see a change over to snow earlier. There is also a question as to how much moisture will still be available and how efficient snowflake production will be aloft … both factors will have a big impact on the end result.
  10. I have been really slacking as of late on the blogging ... hoping to fix that! Mediocre line of storms developed over the central Shenandoah Valley this afternoon and prompted a local blue box from Sterling around Charlottesville. There was a single report of wind damage in the city limits as well ... so congrats Sterling on the verification. Another line of storms lies further west from west-central Illinois through IND and down into LEX/central Kentucky ... high level blow off from this activity will likely stay clear of the area in at least the near term and allow for good rapid west to east clearing this evening. The clear skies early, excess moisture, and generally light winds will set the stage for some patchy overnight and early morning fog in areas that saw rain this afternoon (mainly the KSHD/KCHO area). This is not really anything new as this general area has seen patchy fog the last several mornings.
  11. An area of low pressure is expected to come out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast, while another disturbance approaches us from the West in the Thursday - Saturday time frame. These two systems will attempt to pump in a rich plume of moisture from the south and east, setting the stage for heavy downpours with any showers and thunderstorms that develop. No widespread severe weather is expected, but I would not rule out an isolated tornado with this system(s) ... with a somewhat favorable wind field, despite the lack of instability. Remember, you don't need a crap load of instability for rotating updrafts/supercells Still a lot of certainty, but the potential for the above is certainly there. 12z GFS from this morning valid 00z Friday.
  12. I generally stay away from opinion posts in this blog, but the events that transpired yesterday deserve attention. First, I think that it needs to be pointed out that chasers and spotters provide invaluable information to the National Weather Service in the form of ground truth. This is a concept that most of the general public (and even some meteorologists) on the East Coast do not fully understand. Without these folks burning their personal gas, warning lead times could be substantially different in some cases. With that said, there are quite a few amateurs out there that know just enough to find a storm and get themselves (and potentially others) killed. These people do not have a handle on basic storm structure and thus do not know how to attack a storm a properly. There are also the experienced guys that know better, but still conduct storm intercepts in an unsafe manner to get their video on CNN. Both of these groups are ruining what used to be a prestigious hobby. Now the million dollar question is what do we do about this problem on the chaser side of the things? It is a tricky question, but I believe that it is going to come down to law enforcement cracking down on obvious storm chasers breaking minor laws (slightly speeding, etc). Is it right? No, but I really do think that this is what is going to end up happening. Then you have the other side of spectrum that contributed to the traffic mess … broadcast meteorologists. Some of these broadcast meteorologists are completely incompetent and they simply have no business on television … much less in a high risk area such as Oklahoma. We are asking for a disaster when we have people, such as Mike Morgan at KFOR, that are telling people to attempt to drive away from a tornado after warnings are out. Keep in mind that this goes against pretty much every tornado/severe weather safety checklist. If you are going to leave, do so well before the storms fire (we are talking 10am). How these people are allowed to stay on the air with a NWA seal is beyond me. Put bluntly, they are an embarrassment to the profession. Broadcast meteorologists need to be held accountable for spewing such garbage, before a large number of people get killed because of inaccurate safety information. If an air traffic controller goes against protocol and puts the public’s safety in jeopardy then they are reprimanded. This should be no different for broadcast meteorologists during severe weather. I would love to see the operational meteorological community as a whole step up and do what needs to be done … hold these incompetent meteorologists accountable.
  13. Going to make this one short and sweet ... Longer range guidance showing signs of another round of 75-85 degree temps possible early next week for some?
  14. There is a great competition called Virtual Storm Chase that has been given new life (for bragging rights only). This is the same competition that was started over on the old wxchat forums several years ago (mid 2000s). For those that do not know what it is, I have a attached a PDF copy of the rules below. It is a great learning experience for those interested in severe weather forecasting and a great way for even meteorologists to keep sharp. The site "appears" to be broke ... but once you register (free) and login it works. Rules: Rules _ VirtualStormChase.pdf
  15. Not much has changed. It is starting to look as if the warm sector will continue East in active form. Could see a multi day severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Ohio Valley/dixie alley. People in KS, OK, MO, and AR really need to be paying attention to this. Original blog post on this: