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BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...OPHELIA PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE... ...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

Looks like the rain will be here a bit earlier than expected tonight?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the center on the north side of an attached warm front. The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it became better defined. Based on previous fixes, the current motion is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt. The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning. This forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Except for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. This new forecast is a bit east of the previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land. Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions, bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the center reaches the North Carolina coast. In addition, simulated satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core regime. Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24 hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence due to frontal boundaries still in the area. Weakening is forecast after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to become extratropical again by 60 hours. An official forecast is only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.5N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

40mph at 11 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. The low is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward or north-northwestward motion is expected to begin early Friday and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina through Friday night, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

18z GFS 1-3" region wide... heaviest in S MD

So looks like S MD will be put into TSWs ETA - Calvert and St. Mary's under Tropical Storm Warning

TSWs extended northward into LWX territory BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina, to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb Island. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Duck NC * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Albemarle and the remainder of Pamlico Sound

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 High-resolution visible satellite imagery and surface synoptic observations indicate that the disturbance has not yet acquired a well-defined center of circulation. There is a distinct comma-shaped curved band of convection over the eastern portion of the system, with moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over the area. The current intensity is set at 30 kt based on surface observations. Since there is still no distinct center the initial motion, 360/7 kt, is an educated guess. The dynamical model guidance suggests that there may be some center re-formations during the next day or two. However, the system should move generally northward to north-northwestward over the next couple of days while embedded on the eastern side of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast is close to the previous one and is also close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. Strong vertical wind shear is likely to persist over the system, but the global models show strengthening before landfall. This intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics through landfall. Nonetheless, the system is likely to cause tropical-storm-force winds, locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous storm surges over the warned areas in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States. Interests should be aware that hazardous conditions will extend well away from the forecast center locations. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen off the southeastern U.S. coast and bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday. 4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 29.2N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/0600Z 30.8N 75.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 22/1800Z 32.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 23/0600Z 33.8N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 35.6N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 37.3N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 38.7N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1800Z 40.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

18z NAM is also advertising a long time period of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts for a lot of the region... 50+ at times out towards the Bay and over the mountains

Tiebreaker of highest wind gust?

Rain starts in DC just 00z SAT on 18z NAM Already over an inch of rain down by CHO by 09z Saturday

H/t @MattPetrulli

Updated afternoon discussion from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to the north across New England through early Friday. An area of low pressure will approach from the southeastern U.S. coast Friday into the upcoming weekend. The low pressure system will exit by late Sunday with high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over New England will drift to just offshore of Nova Scotia while low pressure deepens offshore of the Southeast and heads for the Carolinas (possibly acquiring tropical/sub- tropical characteristics - refer to hurricanes.gov for details). This will result in an uptick in high and mid-level clouds, seasonable temperatures, and gradually increasing easterly breezes especially by late Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A rather blocky upper-level jet pattern will be evident through the weekend over North America, with a blocking area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. This should result in deepening low pressure heading into the Carolinas Friday night. To the north of this low and between the high pressure to the north, easterly winds will increase substantially Friday night into Saturday. The strongest winds are expected closer to and over the Chesapeake Bay; in these areas, gusts could reach or exceed 50 mph. Further west to and including the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, 30 to 40 mph wind gusts will likely be more commonplace. Breezy conditions at slightly lower speeds are anticipated further west. The wind should persist for 12-18 hours late Friday night through Saturday night as the low creeps in from the south. Given the persistent winds and anticipated waves of rain, this may result in isolated wind damage (i.e. tree/branch/power line damage). These winds will also bring in tropical moisture and a threat for heavy rainfall (see the Hydrology section below). Rain is most likely in two waves: (1) with an initial moisture advection band late Friday night into Saturday morning, and (2) with the low itself Saturday afternoon and night. Lingering rain and precipitation from an area of low pressure will continue to impact the area as it dissipates overhead on Sunday. Uncertainty continues with the specific location and timing of the heaviest rainfall, but global model ensembles are in relatively good agreement regarding the dissipation of the low. However, deterministic model guidance continues to show variability from model to model and run to run. A more eastern track of the low would result in heaviest precipitation to be located mostly east of I-95 while a more western track would expand the area for heavy rainfall along and west of I-95. Either way, unsettled conditions continue throughout the day Sunday with breezy conditions expected. Wind gusts will be highest Sunday morning before gradually dissipating throughout the day.

Windy wording has entered the zones... wind gusts to 40 mph in DC Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 DCZ001-212100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 134 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Lows around 60. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY...Rain, windy with highs in the mid 60s. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Windy with lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.