yoda

Welp, guess we're going to be freezing next week Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 DCZ001-192200- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 80. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with a 35 kt initial intensity. Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker members slower and further west and stronger members being captured by the trough. Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down. After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for those locations. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 70.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Watch for Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

This is true... or we get a random week to 10 days like last winter and then that's it. I really hope we get some decent stuff this winter, but I'm prepared for a disappointment.

Saw this up in the SNE thread. Hope it's okay to post in here

I'm sorry... come again? SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... While the parent upper low pulls away from the lower Great Lakes toward New England, a secondary shortwave is primed to swing across the Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Strong ascent with this system should allow for further upslope precipitation along with scattered showers downstream. With the most robust wind fields likely near the cloud tops, such winds may struggle to mechanically mix down to the surface. Thus, expect such showers to be of lower impact to areas east of the Allegheny Front. Recent high-resolution model suites show the best coverage south of I-66 during the late afternoon to evening hours. Meanwhile, upslope showers continue along the Alleghenies, which will mix in with snow at times during the evening to overnight hours. Light snowfall accumulations are possible depending on how much can stick to the ground.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 VAZ025>027-029-150330- /O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.241016T0600Z-241016T1300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page- Including the cities of Luray, Staunton, Mount Jackson, New Market, Stanley, Shenandoah, Waynesboro, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Stuarts Draft, and Woodstock 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. * WHERE...Page, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 MDZ003>006-505-507-WVZ051-052-150330- /O.EXA.KLWX.FR.Y.0009.241015T0600Z-241015T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Morgan-Berkeley- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Westminster, Frederick, Eldersburg, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Jarrettsville, and Ballenger Creek 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 36 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Northwest Howard, Carroll, Frederick MD, Washington, Northern Baltimore, and Northwest Harford Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Who is this Commanders team?

2am is 50/80 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. 1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Oh look, it's raining again as I am leaving work

I think I missed meeting @H2O I believe at the last Penguins/Capitals game... but i just got tickets for the January 18th game... anybody else going to go? Of course the Penguins will win

Commanders are 3-1 and are in 1st place in the NFC East

Feels close to 90 out in the direct sunlight... yuck