yoda

Looks like it's going to end up being a major fish hurricane recurving way out in the Atlantic

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Triple phase LMAO

Recurve city upcoming

DO NOT WANT BOLDED BELOW... from this afternoon's AFD from LWX... I cut out the portion before the LONG TERM

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt. Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at 15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even more. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Still a cane at 11 am BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate. The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Bermuda looks to take a direct hit from Jerry on Day 5 per the current track... forecast to be a CAT 1 at that time

BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Interesting note I bolded in the 5pm disco... I did not know that about the GFS vs trop cyclone intensity guidance Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Humberto is almost a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite images show a well-defined cold and warm front, but they do not appear to be fully connected to the center of circulation yet. In addition, the cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection to the northwest of the exposed low-level center. ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the wind field of Humberto is very large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 330 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds extending out to 70 n mi from the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is anticipated to become fully extratropical soon, within the next 6 to 12 hours. Although weakening is forecast, Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the guidance of the GFS model, which typically handles extratropical lows better than the tropical cyclone intensity guidance. Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A slight turn to the left and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as the cyclone rotates around the east and north sides of a mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, a faster east-northeast or east motion is expected when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 38.5N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been disrupted due to a lightning strike. Humberto is taking on more of a hybrid-extratropical structure based on most of the rain shield having been displaced to the left or poleward side of the circulation now as seen in Bermuda weather radar data, and also in conventional and passive microwave satellite imagery. Sustained hurricane-force winds and gusts have been measured by amateur radio operators across the island, with a peak gust to 104 mph having been reported thus far at Ports Island, Bermuda. The initial intensity of 105 kt on the previous advisory has been maintained since little overall change in the structure has occurred since the last aircraft reconnaissance mission 6 hours ago. The initial motion estimate is 060/17 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto has basically remained on track during the past 24 hours. The hurricane is expected to continue accelerating toward the east-northeast tonight and Thursday morning, with the center expected to pass about 80 nmi northwest of Bermuda early this evening. A turn toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast to occur by early Thursday afternoon, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast by 48 hours, with the latter motion continuing through 96 hours. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE consensus track models. Humberto is now fully embedded within an anticyclonically curved right-rear jet entrance region. As a result, some fluctuations in strength could occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, along with cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, should combine to induce steady weakening. By 48 hours, the global models continue to forecast Humberto to merge with a frontal system, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition around that time. The official intensity forecast follows an average of the global models' intensity forecasts due to Humberto's hybrid nature, which is not being captured properly by the tropical-cyclone-based consensus intensity models. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected to continue on Bermuda through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force winds expected during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 33.0N 66.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 41.6N 58.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 43.9N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart