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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of the hurricane has expanded. Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact, some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter. Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids (TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 36.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...LARGE EPSILON CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 62.1W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic about 200 miles east of Bermuda. 1. A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island. Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher latitudes. Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one, and is very close to the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm Warning for that island has been discontinued. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 32.6N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Still only 85mph at 11 even with the better appearance BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 ...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 61.6W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

2am adv identical to the 11pm one in pressure and wind BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 57.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 1. A trough of low pressure, extending from the Yucatan Channel southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable during the next several days and therefore development of this system is not anticipated as it drifts westward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Roberts

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane of the season. Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4 days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus. Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very low which should limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be extratropical by that time. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.5N 56.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane at 11 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 56.8W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Interesting read from LWX AFD this morning about next week... talks about high temps from upper 40s to 70s depending upon boundary position... and then has an eyebrow raising last sentence

Looks like parts of Iowa (DVN CWA) got a surprise snowfall yesterday https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_101920 https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=41.65&lon=-93.34&hr=48

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite imagery this morning. While an area of convection is near and over the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded extratropical low. In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is unchanged at 40 kt. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle. The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3. A northward to northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central Atlantic. Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the northeast at an increasing forward speed. The guidance is in good agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. On the forecast track, Epsilon should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast. First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h. Second, while the overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact with another trough around the 72 h point. These troughs should provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative factor. The intensity guidance continues to show gradual strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period. Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Extratropical transition will likely be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the end of the forecast period. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 25.6N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

Interesting... did not know this was coming https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer