yoda

Saw this posted in the SNE thread... you should watch it -- lightning strike to a tree and parts of the tree are thrown outward

Weakening has begun BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

06z GFS gets rain into our region by middle of next week after hour 162... then proceeds to finishs the run by giving us a total of around 4 inches of rain throughout the last 7 days

Wiz would be dancing naked if he saw that today

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer water. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were 90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt. Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt. The initial motion remains 050/9. Chris is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United states. The combination of these features should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster than the previous forecast. The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely slow the intensification rate. Otherwise, conditions appear favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream. Extratropical transition should begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland. After that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses the North Atlantic. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends, and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h based on the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 34.2N 71.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 35.8N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 38.8N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 42.8N 59.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 46.6N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 53.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z 61.5N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

105mph CAT 2 at 11pm... NHC intensity forecast caps at 110mph Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 71.4W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

Where's Wiz?

He said he wouldn't do that... but just wait for that first Miller B when it screws us and he's enjoying a foot of snow in blizzard conditions

NHC seems to be arguing that upwelling is the reason Chris hasn't intensified at a faster pace per today's 11am disco

034 WTNT43 KNHC 101452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 During the past 6 hours, Chris has developed a well-defined eye in both satellite and radar imagery at times, with a diameter that has varied in size from 30 nmi to the present 20 nmi. The overall convective pattern has also become more symmetrical with well-established outflow present in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT, and Chris certainly has the satellite appearance of being a hurricane. However, the intensity is being maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48 hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate. Recent satellite and radar fixes indicate that Chris is finally moving northeastward at a faster forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/08 kt. The narrow subtropical ridge to the southeast of the cyclone is getting pushed northward by the remnants of Beryl, which has helped to finally nudge Chris toward the northeast. A further increase in forward speed is expected as a strong deep-layer trough digs southeastward along the U.S. east coast, accelerating the cyclone at forward speeds of 25-30 kt by 48 hours and beyond. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 60 hours. The NHC track guidance remains in good agreement on the evolving steering flow regime, but there continues to be some pronounced speed differences. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN. My best estimate, based on the data from Buoy 41002, is that significant upwelling likely occurred within the 30-kt wind radii while Chris was nearly stationary. Assuming that that is the case, then Chris will be moving over warmer waters shortly, which should allow for an increase in convection to occur and also for winds aloft to better mix downward to the surface. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain modest at 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours, so gradual intensification is expected during that time. By 48 hours, Chris will have crossed over the north wall of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder than 20 deg C, which will combine with strong southwesterly wind shear, and cause Chris to rapidly transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast follows the FSSE intensity model through 36 hours, and then shows more significant weakening after that, similar to the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 33.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.6N 69.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 38.4N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 42.0N 60.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 48.1N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 52.0N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 54.0N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

Still TS Chris at 11am BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 73.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today when it moves over warmer waters, and some additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Has to get rid of the dry air entrainment first on the NE and E side of the convection... probably will be hurricane tomorrow sometime

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Chris this morning has found little change in the overall structure of the cyclone. The peak 8000-ft wind measured was 60 kt to the south of the center along with a 51-kt SFMR surface wind. The minimum pressure has also remained steady at 999 mb during the entire mission which is still ongoing. Although an eye-like feature has briefly appeared in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Morehead City and in satellite imagery as well, the convection surrounding that feature has been mostly shallow and ragged. Based on these data, the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance fixes the past several hours and satellite fixes indicate that Chris has moved little. Steering currents are forecast to remain weak for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in continued slow movement. By 36 hours, however, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward out of Canada and into the northeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states, which should help to eject the cyclone northeastward. By 48 hours and beyond, the shortwave trough will help to amplify a deep-layer trough near the U.S. east coast, causing Chris to accelerate northeastward toward the Atlantic Canada region. The NHC model guidance continues to show little cross-track differences, but fairly significant along-track or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close to the consensus track models. A narrow band of dry mid-level air has wrapped all the way around and into the inner-core region, which has caused some erosion of the associated convection, along with some upwelling. However, the reconnaissance wind data indicated that Chris has a relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 15 nmi to the south and about 25 nmi to the north. This well-defined inner-core wind field, coupled with warm water and low vertical shear conditions, should enable the cyclone to mix out the dry air later today and tonight, which will allow for strengthening to begin. The intensification process should be steady at a near-normal rate for the next 36 hours or so, followed by gradual weakening in a few days as the waters beneath Chris begin to cool and the wind shear increases from the southwest. By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over much colder water (SSTs less than 20 deg C) and within a high shear environment of 30 kt or more, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone as the system approaches Newfoundland. The extratropical low is forecast to interact or merge with a strong cold front by 96 hours when the cyclone is near Newfoundland, which will enhance the extratropical transition process. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows Chris reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday. Chris could reach a peak intensity of 80 kt between the 36 and 48 hour time periods before weakening begins shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 32.2N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 33.3N 73.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 34.8N 70.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 40.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 47.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 51.1N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

Lol Cat 3 hurricane

I don't see any reports... so I don't think so?