yoda

ENH pushed almost into the western CHI suburbs on 1630 OTLK hatched wind now reaches Chicago metro

12z NAM sounding for DC area at 00z SUN (8pm SAT)

12z NAM NEST looks pretty good for N VA into S PA late Saturday afternoon into Sat night looking at sup composite... radar looks intriguing too up north... after a supercell blows up just south of DC around 21z SAT

Don't sleep on today in C/N IA Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight for parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, from northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind gusts near or exceeding 75 mph, hail up to the size of baseballs, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains/southern Prairie Provinces has crested the ridge, and heights will be suppressed east-southeastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper Great lakes by tonight. An associated, weak surface cold front/trough will likewise move slowly southeastward across NE/IA/MN/WI through tonight. The front and any lingering outflow boundaries from overnight convection will likely focus afternoon and evening thunderstorm development across southeast MN and along the IA/MN border, in phase with an embedded speed max moving eastward from SD (as evidence by the weak midlevel convection over SD this morning). The thermodynamic environment will feature steep midlevel lapse rates with a warm elevated mixed layer extending eastward from the Rockies, atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range. Strong surface heating in the wake of morning elevated convection will drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) and weakening convective inhibition as surface temperatures warm into the 90s. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and the large CAPE will support a threat for supercells initially, with very large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds. Any semi-discrete storms in the zone of stronger low-level shear/warm advection closer to the MS River will also pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Otherwise, storms are expected to coalesce and grow upscale into one or more bowing clusters with the potential to produce significant damaging winds (greater than 75 mph) prior to the convection spreading east of the larger buoyancy late tonight.

Just a tad chilly to go along with the excellent morning

Quite a tasty morning AFD from LWX re severe chances

18z NAM soundings looks nice -- ofc at range -- in the 21z/00z time period on Saturday evening

Really Wizards? https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/06/scott-brooks-wont-return-as-wizards-head-coach.html

I wasn't trying to say that it was a guarantee lol... but was intrigued that there was already mention of it in the AFD already

Surprised no talk this morning of the LWX AFD for our severe prospects starting late Friday on @high risk @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx

06z NAMNEST runs a UD Helicity swath right through/just north of DC 04z to 06z time period. Sim radar backs that up with a very intense line blowing through DC metro up the i95 corridor at same time

06z NAM soundings again suggest fun at 00z and 03z tonight across the region

Well... morning AFD was short and sweet about today's threat lol... also mentioned Saturday as the next day to watch for severe

Double hmmm... evening AFD update from LWX

SLGT risk for today on new Day 1... 0/5/15... disco sounds intriguing