Tallis Rockwell

17/11/5

Let's hope you didn't just jinx it.

You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are...

The NAM is also showing a sub 870 beast so I don't know how seriously I'd take it.

The La nina year is less active than the El nino year.

Beryl has over-performed expectation at every given chance. I wouldn't be surprised if Beryl came into the gulf as a major hurricane, if it were to take a northern track

Hopefully we get 2020-esque where we get whole lot of more moderate cyclones than stronger ones. A busy June and July could keep these temperatures from rising to even more insane levels come August or September.

Idalia, Too many I-storms this decade!

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda. Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

You mean the sub 895 mb hyperstorm?

I don't like the strengthening trend with these models... in less than a day, the models went from a low end hurricane landfall to a cat 3-4 landfall

I just can't see that happening with all the shear we've been seeing, El nino is only going to get stronger in the next few months. I am actually worried about the opposite. Just one window of weak shear could produce a monster storm with these crazy high SSTs

Spring-like conditions are shaping over Central and NE Texas, this friday: conditional but substantial tornado risk. 19z Update... Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX. The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing. However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

NAM is showing some insane SRH over Houston Fri...

I am wholly unimpressed with this setup, Some dust is going to move into the Caribbean over the next several days, and with shear remaining persistent, I don't see this turning into another major storm unless something changes, with little to no enthusiasm from the models, I don't understand the hype behind this system.