Tallis Rockwell

NAM is really showing something here...Could this be the first high risk of the year? The NAM model are starting to show more discrete cells ahead of the cold front, not a whole lot but a decent bit.

Low level winds for Friday is looking impressive!

My body is ready.

This sucks.

E EDIT: The new outlook has a better picture ...DISCUSSION... The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF appear to be in reasonable agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features through Day 4 and into the first half of the Day 5 period. After this, differences in the evolution of the large trough progged to crossing the Plains states Day 4 and then the Mississippi Day 5 begin to become fairly substantial. As such, confidence in the predictability of the pattern beyond day 5 is quite limited. In the mean time, some potential for the evolution of scattered to isolated severe storms remains apparent over the eastern Oklahoma and Arklatex region and surrounding areas Day 4 (Sunday 10-20), as a deepening surface low shifts out of the central and northern High Plains and eventually reaches the Minnesota vicinity. Correspondingly, a trailing cold front is shown crossing eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/western Texas during the afternoon, as warm-sector destabilization becomes diurnally maximized. As favorably strong flow aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the advancing surface front, at least isolated cells -- developing as residual capping is locally breached -- will evolve within a sheared environment likely supportive of rotating updrafts. Storms may diminish somewhat in intensity overnight, but it appears that reintensification of convection -- and regeneration of accompanying severe risk -- should occur across portions of the central Gulf Coast region, as the front continues its eastward advance through an amply moist/destabilizing low-level airmass. Again, potential for supercells, and all severe hazards, appears possible. By Day 6, model differences -- including with location of the surface frontal position -- have become substantial enough to preclude continuation of severe risk into the eastern Gulf Coast/southern Atlantic Coast states.

The short range models are starting to agree with 20+ inch totals

GFS NAM RAP hasn't reached to this time yet...either way this looks to be interesting

Hurricane Irma has a rival

That's just insane...crazy thing is that the rest of this past season was so quiet compared to now. I wish I could be down there filming.

That would be insane...It's not even a day from landfall. This is system is going to be hard to model

Thinking the low in the gulf is going to affect where the Dorian is headed

I think the models underestimated this hurricane...

I don't know why but something tells me that this unlikely...

Enhanced with sig tor probs for day 2 Well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast is forecast to eject across the lower CO River basin into the southern Rockies by early evening Tuesday. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to spread into the High Plains of NM/west TX shortly after peak heating. At the same time, a much weaker, but notable disturbance will eject across Mexico into deep south TX. This low-latitude feature should induce a coastal boundary and low-level warm advection will increase in response. It appears a substantial amount of convection will evolve across south TX into the middle/upper TX coastal region. This should temporarily slow northward advance of low-level moisture across east TX into eastern OK. Even so, adequate boundary-layer moisture should remain undisturbed across the southern High Plains where lower 60s surface dew points should hold east of a well-defined dry line, south of a synoptic front. While the synoptic front should contribute to convective development from the northern TX Panhandle to southeast KS, primary concern for organized severe will focus along the dryline near the TX/NM border. Strong surface heating is forecast by 18z across eastern NM where temperatures should easily soar into the 80s by early-mid afternoon. As a result, CINH should weaken by 21z and scattered supercells should easily develop within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings for this region exhibit profiles that strongly favor supercells. Very large hail, in excess of 2", and tornadoes can be expected with this activity. Thunderstorm clusters should translate along/north of the synoptic front across the northern TX Panhandle into northwest OK/south-central KS during the overnight hours.

Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the day4-6 time frame. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5 across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat . Seems like a repeat of 2015