Tallis Rockwell

Idalia, Too many I-storms this decade!

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda. Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

You mean the sub 895 mb hyperstorm?

I don't like the strengthening trend with these models... in less than a day, the models went from a low end hurricane landfall to a cat 3-4 landfall

I just can't see that happening with all the shear we've been seeing, El nino is only going to get stronger in the next few months. I am actually worried about the opposite. Just one window of weak shear could produce a monster storm with these crazy high SSTs

Spring-like conditions are shaping over Central and NE Texas, this friday: conditional but substantial tornado risk. 19z Update... Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX. The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing. However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

NAM is showing some insane SRH over Houston Fri...

I am wholly unimpressed with this setup, Some dust is going to move into the Caribbean over the next several days, and with shear remaining persistent, I don't see this turning into another major storm unless something changes, with little to no enthusiasm from the models, I don't understand the hype behind this system.

The parameters for Oct doesn't look favorable with more cold fronts and dry air, while another big storm is possible but unless we see an October like 2020 or 2005, we're not going to break average numbers

Everyone was predicting an ABOVE AVERAGE season of 17-8-4, are we seeing this? No. 9-4-2 is this seasons totals so far and the setup for Oct isn't impressive, it's safe say to that in terms of storm numbers and ACE, this season will be average. The only 2 major hurricanes made significant impacts and that's the only reason anyone will remember this season. I'll say it again an impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

Everyone was predicting another hyperactive system which we are still not seeing, 1 or 2 major landfalls doesn't mean the season is active. Let's say that there are only 4 hurricanes for a season but that all make landfalls, does it sudden;y make the season active? Of course not. An impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

Everybody is focusing on storms 11 days out because there isn't actually anything solid 1 week out which is still pretty distant for forecasting TCs, unless something seriously changes I can't imagine things getting much busier

You beat me by 4 hours...

Confirmed tornado to the southwest of college station.

Looking at the HRRR and the environment, I am thinking that the SPC is going to expand the moderate risk to the east.