Stormchaserchuck1

Why do you guys get so ahead of the game anyway?

The rate of warming right now is what people are going on. Matches: 1954- to weak opp event 1957- to moderate opp event 1964- to weak opp event 1965- to strong opp event 1972- to strong opp event 1973- to strong opp event 1976- to weak opp event 1978- to neutral 1988- to strong opp event 1997- to strong opp event 2003- to neutral 2007- to strong opp event https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php DJF-JFM-FMA, rapid changes, because this year will be. 6 strong opp events 1 moderate opp event 3 weak opp events 2 neutral events 0 same state events same # strong events than not (6/12). 10/12 opposite enso events. 0/12 same enso events [La Nina] and 0/6 4th year La Nina's.

I think Dec-Feb 2017-18 Boston getting only 2" of snow, then the headfakes of going into a snowier Winter (Fall 2018 and Fall 2022), not happening, were also accelerants in this direction.

I think Hadley Cell expansion could correlate to more activity (recent): PNA Feb-Apr (this year qualifies as extreme -(plus analogs)): minus2022.. 14NS- plus2021... 21NS plus2020.. 30NS plus2018.. 15NS* minus2017.. 17NS- minus2016.. 15NS minus2014.. 8NS plus2009.. 9NS* 4 -PNA.. 19NS/yr 4 +PNA.. 13NS/yr *2009 and 2018(plus) did go into an El Nino and only had 12NS/yr -2022 and 2017(minus) did go into La Nina and had 15.5NS/yr

We did it again

You would see something like -PNA index April 1-10 in developing El Nino's (Nino 1+2>0.5) comes out like.. 5 El Nino's, 1 Neutral, 3 La Nina's by the end of the year.

My threat window It didn't snow, but I think I got a favorable pattern correct. -PNA consistency killed the snow chance.

Just a monster -PNA on 12z GFS ensembles right now through Easter and beyond. Next Winter El Nino and -QBO likely gives us some Stratosphere warmings(high correlations), but I wonder if the -NAO will kryptonite again like this Winter. It may do good with a El Nino-connected+PNA temporarily, but I think in the bigger picture it is going to even out as a generally unfavorable pattern (I'm talking about Hadley Cell expansion).

Has that ever happened before? I see a correlation globally to how Greenland is completely "breached". Historical high correlation patterns have been opposite to a W->E elongated ridge or trough from Greenland to Florida, vs a normal cutoff or amplified pattern, since 2019, and more so 2021-2022-2023. Something physical that could connect if attention lessens is Artic ice melt in the Summer, melting more as we just have an easier flow from the Tropic of Cancer to the Poles.

There is a legitimate -PNA on models in April. This goes out to the extended, April 10th. We are also seeing -NAO correlating with warm pattern along the EC, US, which we have seen since 2019. This is the dominate pattern. If an El Nino does develop, it's not the main driver right now. So I'm interested to see if it gets stuck at where global SSTA-maxes are (falling under random) (obviously it's a pattern, but a Strong El Nino could be really hard to achieve).

Look at this, guys. More of the same pattern (warm underneath -NAO).

Hadley Cell expansion index (my estimation) is about equal to a +3-4c El Nino right now. This correlates with -PNA conditions, and a -NAO in 1-2 years time, (it lifts up to -nao/ao+time). This means that to match the highest frequency globally right now, we would have to have at least a +3c Nino 3.4 El Nino (+4c longer term). (a negative -nao/ao from this is not organic, so over the course of, say, a decade it would not dominate. an example of this is Winter 09-10, hadley cell expansions move up and out to release.)

We aren't letting go of -AAM on 15day LR models, and -PNA isn't shaking either. Usually in Moderate to Strong El Nino's, you start to see some atmospheric response by now. I did do a study that said March 20-April 3 was historically slightly opposite of developing ENSO's general state, so the trend is bucking so hard there, but I think we have been in a strong -PNA regime since November, and it might not break more than the El Nino's strength can get (in general). (I think a good test is to see how active the Atlantic Hurricane this year is, I would favor more activity like 2002 or 2004.)

Hey Jeb, how cold do you think it will have to be to have the spray on the hose turn to ice/snow before landing on the ground? Maybe -50F. I've done it from a balcony and rooftop before lol. Just freezing rain.

I know the gfs shows snow, but it's warm outside, and this looks like rain.