Stormchaserchuck1

Strong +NAO this June.. will probably be +1.0-1.5 for the month. All but a few days in the beginning of the month have been positive. Here's how that rolls forward into July.. 2012's arctic ice melt record might be safe for another year

For fun.. I'm going to keep running forward with my Energy play re: a hotter than previously expected Summer taking hold in the eastern US and Europe (I think somewhat related to the Solar flares and +NAO). I've created a complex mathematical algorithm to predict Futures market moves for the next-day based on historical data.. and all the Energies continue to run an Up future projection as per this method (HO, RB, CL). This was as of Friday close (5pm, but I didn't run the numbers until now). It's for Monday and Tuesday, % shown is the average expected move (actually x2 since it's 2 days). Just for fun.. since not much is going on. I've hit on Heating Oil 2/3 days so far with a combined total of +0.8%. The signal carries into next week. It will be my 4th and 5th day with a "play", and watch long range models possibly trend toward a hotter pattern for July.

Flipping the WPO could be more difficult though.. this is a very high correlation and a uniform map.. notice how basically the whole N. Hemisphere is above average SSTA's before a +WPO Winter Indian Ocean signal is what I like because it's a West-Pacific index, so that makes sense, as the pattern goes from west to east. It is theorized that Indian Ocean SSTs are decadal also, but they do seem to be running a pretty linear trend up since the early 1900s, we are also now in a positive phase. Summer/Fall monsoon there is usually pretty telling about the following Winter WPO. Believe it or not, NE Russia has had negative Winter temp anomalies since 2018 (+WPO)

I agree, I also think there is an above average tendency for -EPO periods to happen with +NAO.. that is an above average precip pattern in the eastern 1/2. Clippers have become less common though, so the low pressure will likely need to tap into the Gulf. I'm getting a few warm things for Dec, although I know the small sample of -Neutral ENSO and -QBO favors a cold December.

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun.

The odds of having no hits through 8 innings is probably 1/450 by itself. Those other variables included, it's probably a 1/2000 type occurrence or something.

Seems to have a slight correlation with warming of Atlantic SSTs for peak season Pretty good Indian Ocean warming signal, too. Actually a very uniform map

Subsurface warmth from the Apr-May Kelvin wave seems to be making it to the surface. This is why I don't really trust subsurface data from the 1950s. Since 2000, it has been a solid predictor of surface SSTs +months time. It apparently didn't do that in the 40s-50s.

More widespread +AO on 384hr ensembles.. 2nd year in a row we get this strong pattern after a very active Sun

I continue to have a high predicted value for Heating Oil tomorrow.. about 57% chance. More about unfactored-in Summer heat

Cat 4. Really hitting on some higher potential energy in the tropics with a Cat 5 storm in the Atlantic last July 1 and this one in mid-June.

Keep in mind that October 2024 was the lowest monthly PDO on record, going back to the 1800s, so this recent dip is no lite event. June PNA has a pretty good correlation with a stronger Winter SE ridge in Dec-Jan-March. We'll be around -1 for June PNA (correlation of below maps is opposite for negative phase)

Heating Oil Up 2.4% today, making the prediction 2/2, with a combined total of +3.8%. It also outperformed Crude Oil for the 4th day in a row, saying that it is more about the heat. The point is, sometimes coming weather events are not fully baked into the market price, especially when models suddenly catch onto it inside 2 weeks. A friend of mine on another board did research, and found that this late-June period has the highest correlation with the rest of the Summer in the eastern US, outweighing things like ENSO. A ridge in the last week of June often precedes a hotter Summer.

Ravens are pretty stacked.. I don't think they have a weak part on this team. Maybe kicker. Defense looks great, maybe top 5. This also takes out the wild card of if Nate Wiggins is good or not.

Still an impressive -PDO.. and my N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO prediction method is now running positive