Stormchaserchuck1

To be honest, money dominates and things like weather can be manipulated to fit peoples wallet. I've been heavily relying on Natural Gas futures.. which are currently at a record low near 1.6.. dim prospects for cold and snow next Winter.

80dbz on that cell SW of York, PA.

81F in Fallston. Hearing loud rumbles, was thinking it was some military testing or something, but it turns out there are strong thunderstorms to my north.

Signs of a +EPO pattern around Apr 23-24. Above average temperature pattern if that verifies. It could occur +days

ENSO subusurface had backed away from the deep cold for a few days, now it's going back. -6c pool on the most recent TAO/Triton maps. Here is the progression over time. SSTs will likely catch up with the subsurface cold in the coming months.

I don't know that they are the ones that developed the NAO originally, but it wasn't the CPC. NAO was defined in the 1950s/60s, I think, as sea-level pressure differences between ~the Azores islands and Iceland regions.

Another thing to note is, since October, the Hadley Cell has been expanded north, all around the globe. In the Summer, those mid-latitude cells lift north. The past doesn't necessarily predict the future, but lack of deep troughs digging, coupled with normal La Nina pattern could potentially create a more favorable pattern for US hits. All this while SLP has been below normal: https://ibb.co/KhfXCNz Earth's precipitable water has been record highest, a whole 120% #2 analog 2015-16, for the Sept-Apr period (records go back to 1948). https://ibb.co/cbLGHQV

That is interesting. We had a 4-contour Greenland block, but nothing rivaling the strength of even what we have seen the past few Winters. There seems be a major disconnect between CPC's NAO numbers and what is occurring in the NAO area, measured by sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azore islands. This Winter came up with something like a +0.7 NAO for DJFM, but if you look at sea-level pressure and 500mb, it should have been measured negative. Either way, hopefully this is some sign that we will see more persistent -NAO's in coming cold seasons, as we had seen 41/46 +NAO Winter months, going back to 2013. and 16/16 of the NAO's >1.11 in the monthly's during that time were all positive. 16-0 since 2013. I think the larger reasoning is issues with CPC's measurements, but maybe the overall signal is turning around..

This storm/rain for the last 3 days is actually from a Stratosphere warming that occurred in March. It "downwelled" to a -NAO, and as that -NAO block lifted out, we got this storm underneath of it.

It's actually not very far away from snow, 48F here.

A tree fell here. https://ibb.co/j5wb1Cs

Wow what a wind storm!

-PNA pattern starting to set in. https://ibb.co/DVGmNdf https://ibb.co/c1ws74X I've researched this, the PNA is more sensitive to ENSO central-subsurface than any other ENSO measurement, including surface SSTs and the MEI, at 0-time.

Really cold in the subsurface now. For comparison, this may rival the strongest subsurface anomalies we saw in this past El Nino.

All time Hurricane tracks East coast, US has been lowest relative to long term average, and vs Atlantic activity lately (since 2000).