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RIC_WX

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About RIC_WX

  • Birthday September 2

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  • Location:
    Loudoun County, VA
  1. So many ex...planations in this thread. The reality is the long range forecasts almost universally predicted this winter would be front loaded. And it was. The problem was the front loaded period sucked, but it was still closest to average. January and February were far worse. Now we are merely waiting for the cold finish. Fast forward 60 days and the resultant wx is probably very similar in absolute terms this week, except more cold rain and less snow. Let's hope summer ends on time. No doubt it will be hot enough in the meantime.
  2. In a few weeks / months we will look back on this time period in amazement of how people were in such denial about how bad this season really was. People have been far more apoplectic during patterns far less hostile.
  3. 59 at JYO. Todays warm up over delivered.
  4. My perspective is the only difference between this year and 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 etc is that the NWP models have finally gotten good enough that we know well in advance the pattern has little if any chance to produce anything worthwhile. In those prior bad seasons, there were plenty of teases, the cold was always 10 days away, etc. This year really has been consistently bad, biased mild almost continuously since the 5th of July when Summer finally showed up and never looked back. Only change is it's been cloudy and damp for most of met winter. You would have actually seen a lot more traffic and a lot more whining those years, as people would track things for days only to have it fall apart after starting to take it seriously. At this point, the only thing that might surprise me is if we didn't see a prolonged period of cold and wet set in by at least the end of March. The sooner we can get that over with, the better. Would be the surest sign that Spring is actually on it's way.
  5. Sleet and rain in Leesburg, 39. Heavy precip. Whole event presents like a late season winter storm, more like a typical March or early April event.
  6. 1998 called, and they want their wx maps back. Please return before Seinfeld, and don't try and pick up the phone while you are uploading.
  7. Does not quite look to be advisory criteria event here in Leesburg, but you know, it's the thought that counts.
  8. After the March 1-2 2009 snow, my place west of RIC fell below zero on clear skies and 12" of fresh snowcover - pretty amazing given it was March. The CVA piedmont just radiates better than most of the area around DC, especially Leesburg - where seemingly any westerly wind component at all prevents temps from bottoming out. AKQ (at the NWS office) hit -2 on Sunday morning after the Saturday snow - and they are well east of the fall line. I don't think we made it to single digits up here. That said, the inverse is often true during torch periods when I am sitting in the upper 40's and everything east of RIC is 70+. I would guess this happens a few times seemingly every winter when rarely does CVA see consecutive nights of near or below zero temps - maybe once or twice a decade at best.
  9. The weather channel is doing a fabulous job reporting live on the cold rain falling in Atlanta and Charlotte, as the back edge of precipitation comes in to range on the Atlanta radar.
  10. 23.2 / 9 in Leesburg. JYO dew point down 6*F in last 90 minutes or so. Not too often we are the source region for someone else's blizzard LOL
  11. That thought occurred to me too after my last response :-). I agree, and posted about the SE VA snow in late December 2004 yesterday. That storm had a razor sharp cutoff too, with 12" over the HR peninsula and nothing at RIC. I do remember the clipper snows later on, and the biggest (-) departures showing up in early-mid March. I don't recall much second half snowfall south of DCA however, might have been more productive further north. Was my first season on these boards.
  12. 2005 was very cold from the 5th-23rd of December (a Dec. 5 snow event year, despite mild antecedent conditions); otherwise very warm, especially the final 7 days of the month. It was a sudden reversal, and IIRC all of the NWP schemes were showing endless cold into January until about the 21st and within 48 hours, it all suddenly broke down in a bad way. Despite that, it was still colder in the means than this year, because the middle 2 weeks of the month were almost unabated cold - most of the local stations would have been top 10 coldest December to that point, all the comparisons were to 1989. The NWP schemes were poor that winter too due to the fast flow (hence, my comment that some years just have more noise). No two analog years are the same and I agree there are similarities with the cold being concentrated to our NW, but in the means this 2016-17 is warmer so far. 2005-6 started cold and ended cold, and was more consistently warmer in the period centered around new years.
  13. So, you might want to ignore the obvious similarities to late December 2001 or 1973 to the storm this weekend. The only difference I can see to late 2001 is the big warmup is coming about 72 hours later as opposed to 24. But, in the late December 2001 case RIC solidly outsnowed DCA and that turned out to be the biggest event of the season for both stations. There are more examples in the record than you might think when RIC has outperformed DCA in absolute terms, but you have to go back to the 1960's to find a year where RIC outperformed DCA seasonally and both stations finished climo+. I agree model watching and speculation is fun but at some point, it's less signal and more noise. Pretty soon we'll be talking about "how warm winters end cold".
  14. I think there was a note that 2016 finished #2 all time warm at DCA. Most of the years on list, the following winters were some of our all time dogs. By next weekend, met winter is half over folks...might be time to let this one go. Actually, given how bad the pattern has been at times, I am only surprised it actually hasn't been warmer in the means to this point. Given that many pre-season predictions were for a "front loaded" winter, I have a feeling the cards are on the table and the...ugh...best may be yet to come in terms of +departures.
  15. Pity flakes in Leesburg. looks like better returns to the west.