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About RIC_WX

  • Birthday September 2

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  • Location:
    Loudoun County, VA
  1. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Roads around Leesburg crazy slippery, frozen slush is no joke. Got rear ended at traffic light, came home and slid back down inclined driveway 2x with brake on and trans parked. That is a slick road.
  2. Jan 8th Ice/Mix/Rain Event

    JYO been running warm this whole cold period if you ask me. Usually we run close but lately I have consistently been 3*-5*F colder on my PWS - which is typically quite accurate with any wind at all (it will run warm in full sun and calm air). 27.5* / 8 maybe 2 miles north of JYO. Up from 16 / 4 at 4AM
  3. November Discobs Thread

    If it wasn't for all the exuberance surrounding our fancy LR NWP schemes, these sunny blue skies...mild afternoons and seasonably chilly mornings would be reminding me much more of January 2002 then December 1989 or 2005.
  4. November Long Range Disco

    January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.
  5. November Discobs Thread

    .92" today (still raining, but tapering off) 1.82" in November 4.18" in October 41" and counting YTD Yes it was bone dry for 2 five week periods roughly overlapping June and September, but otherwise on pace for an average to slightly wetter than usual year. The summer was, by far, the wettest I have seen in 8 examples since moving here in 2010.
  6. Winter 2017-18 Disco

    2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January. Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same. Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.
  7. Winter 2017-18 Disco

    1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.
  8. September Disco/Obs Thread

    IAD +0 for the month heading into today, the last day of the solid heatwave. September really turned out to be the inverse of what one might ordinarily expect, more like June. I suspect the month finishes essentially normal in the means, which this month was anything but. Also interesting how June and September were acutely dry for most of the region, in such contrast to July and August. Strange days indeed.
  9. Winter 2017-18 Disco

    I definitely see some recent similarities to the 1994-95 winter patter locally and the active, long track tropical season of 1995. That said, I also feel like stating that places an emphasis on what I might prefer to see and ignores almost every potentially dissimilar data point, and surely they all matter. I think 95/96 is remembered fondly not just for the frequent and intense bouts of cold and snow, but the fact that when it wasn't cold/snow it was usually sunny and 65*F. That winter truly had something for everyone. And it was basically non stop from November 1 right into April.
  10. September Disco/Obs Thread

    Dulles was a staggering -8 or so departure for the first 12 days of September, and increasingly looks like a lock to finish the month in the + departure category. LR progs for early October are all over the place run to run.
  11. September Disco/Obs Thread

    ...fast forward 8 days and still looks like endless summer into early October. Good thing this pattern held off until mid September, if it had set up in August would be sweat city.
  12. September Disco/Obs Thread

    12Z GFS indicates summer could make triumphant rerturn the second half of September, and could stick around awhile
  13. Grading Winters

    Moved to my present location in May of 2010, and the 16/17 winter is the only one I would grade as "F". 13/14 was clearly the best. 15/16 gets low marks for having to run the AC on Christmas Day (never had to do that in 30+ christmases in Richmond) but offset entirely by the single largest snowfall of my life a month later. At least these events are memorable. I believe 16/17 deserves a special designation as it basically was devoid of any resemblance to winter. It wasn't cold, it didn't snow, there was virtually no ice or winter storm of any kind outside of one mid December event; we had numerous stretches of weeks at a time where it was hard to tell if simply delayed onset of indian summer or early spring. It's been at least 25 years since I have seen anything even close to this, in any location. Relative to normals for where I live today, I suspect this is probably amongst the mildest winter of my lifetime, as I don't think the early 1990's winters were as mild here as they were for points south.
  14. February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

    So many ex...planations in this thread. The reality is the long range forecasts almost universally predicted this winter would be front loaded. And it was. The problem was the front loaded period sucked, but it was still closest to average. January and February were far worse. Now we are merely waiting for the cold finish. Fast forward 60 days and the resultant wx is probably very similar in absolute terms this week, except more cold rain and less snow. Let's hope summer ends on time. No doubt it will be hot enough in the meantime.
  15. February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

    In a few weeks / months we will look back on this time period in amazement of how people were in such denial about how bad this season really was. People have been far more apoplectic during patterns far less hostile.