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About RIC_WX

  • Birthday September 2

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    Loudoun County, VA

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  1. RIC_WX

    October Discobs Thread

    JYO and my PWS concur with a 90* reading...
  2. RIC_WX

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    Read through that article and roll forward the analogs - both for the cold summertime lows and warm May-July period. Ugh. Nothing in there inspires confidence here.
  3. RIC_WX

    July Discobs Thread

    Just passed 2". Death band overhead.
  4. RIC_WX

    April Discobs Thread

    Checking in. It's been raining nonstop since about 11A, picked up about .5" in that time with occasional moderate downpours. Closing in on 1.5" for the event, maybe a little more. Side note: This kind of over performance almost never, ever happens here. Except maybe this time of year.
  5. RIC_WX

    March 1-2 wind event

    I want to yak every time I fly on a CR2 in clear wx. That said, lots of buzz on the AV forums about IAD in ground stop until 1PM, landings on RWY 30, tower evacuated...all things that generally don't ever happen. DCA is also reportedly landing on RWY 33, which is extremely rare. AA and DL have all but ceased attempts to operate there.
  6. RIC_WX

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Roads around Leesburg crazy slippery, frozen slush is no joke. Got rear ended at traffic light, came home and slid back down inclined driveway 2x with brake on and trans parked. That is a slick road.
  7. RIC_WX

    Jan 8th Ice/Mix/Rain Event

    JYO been running warm this whole cold period if you ask me. Usually we run close but lately I have consistently been 3*-5*F colder on my PWS - which is typically quite accurate with any wind at all (it will run warm in full sun and calm air). 27.5* / 8 maybe 2 miles north of JYO. Up from 16 / 4 at 4AM
  8. RIC_WX

    November Discobs Thread

    If it wasn't for all the exuberance surrounding our fancy LR NWP schemes, these sunny blue skies...mild afternoons and seasonably chilly mornings would be reminding me much more of January 2002 then December 1989 or 2005.
  9. RIC_WX

    November Long Range Disco

    January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.
  10. RIC_WX

    November Discobs Thread

    .92" today (still raining, but tapering off) 1.82" in November 4.18" in October 41" and counting YTD Yes it was bone dry for 2 five week periods roughly overlapping June and September, but otherwise on pace for an average to slightly wetter than usual year. The summer was, by far, the wettest I have seen in 8 examples since moving here in 2010.
  11. RIC_WX

    Winter 2017-18 Disco

    2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January. Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same. Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.
  12. RIC_WX

    Winter 2017-18 Disco

    1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.
  13. RIC_WX

    September Disco/Obs Thread

    IAD +0 for the month heading into today, the last day of the solid heatwave. September really turned out to be the inverse of what one might ordinarily expect, more like June. I suspect the month finishes essentially normal in the means, which this month was anything but. Also interesting how June and September were acutely dry for most of the region, in such contrast to July and August. Strange days indeed.
  14. RIC_WX

    Winter 2017-18 Disco

    I definitely see some recent similarities to the 1994-95 winter patter locally and the active, long track tropical season of 1995. That said, I also feel like stating that places an emphasis on what I might prefer to see and ignores almost every potentially dissimilar data point, and surely they all matter. I think 95/96 is remembered fondly not just for the frequent and intense bouts of cold and snow, but the fact that when it wasn't cold/snow it was usually sunny and 65*F. That winter truly had something for everyone. And it was basically non stop from November 1 right into April.
  15. RIC_WX

    September Disco/Obs Thread

    Dulles was a staggering -8 or so departure for the first 12 days of September, and increasingly looks like a lock to finish the month in the + departure category. LR progs for early October are all over the place run to run.