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About RIC_WX

  • Birthday September 2

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    Loudoun County, VA
  1. If it wasn't for all the exuberance surrounding our fancy LR NWP schemes, these sunny blue skies...mild afternoons and seasonably chilly mornings would be reminding me much more of January 2002 then December 1989 or 2005.
  2. January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.
  3. .92" today (still raining, but tapering off) 1.82" in November 4.18" in October 41" and counting YTD Yes it was bone dry for 2 five week periods roughly overlapping June and September, but otherwise on pace for an average to slightly wetter than usual year. The summer was, by far, the wettest I have seen in 8 examples since moving here in 2010.
  4. 2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January. Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same. Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.
  5. 1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.
  6. IAD +0 for the month heading into today, the last day of the solid heatwave. September really turned out to be the inverse of what one might ordinarily expect, more like June. I suspect the month finishes essentially normal in the means, which this month was anything but. Also interesting how June and September were acutely dry for most of the region, in such contrast to July and August. Strange days indeed.
  7. I definitely see some recent similarities to the 1994-95 winter patter locally and the active, long track tropical season of 1995. That said, I also feel like stating that places an emphasis on what I might prefer to see and ignores almost every potentially dissimilar data point, and surely they all matter. I think 95/96 is remembered fondly not just for the frequent and intense bouts of cold and snow, but the fact that when it wasn't cold/snow it was usually sunny and 65*F. That winter truly had something for everyone. And it was basically non stop from November 1 right into April.
  8. Dulles was a staggering -8 or so departure for the first 12 days of September, and increasingly looks like a lock to finish the month in the + departure category. LR progs for early October are all over the place run to run.
  9. ...fast forward 8 days and still looks like endless summer into early October. Good thing this pattern held off until mid September, if it had set up in August would be sweat city.
  10. 12Z GFS indicates summer could make triumphant rerturn the second half of September, and could stick around awhile
  11. Moved to my present location in May of 2010, and the 16/17 winter is the only one I would grade as "F". 13/14 was clearly the best. 15/16 gets low marks for having to run the AC on Christmas Day (never had to do that in 30+ christmases in Richmond) but offset entirely by the single largest snowfall of my life a month later. At least these events are memorable. I believe 16/17 deserves a special designation as it basically was devoid of any resemblance to winter. It wasn't cold, it didn't snow, there was virtually no ice or winter storm of any kind outside of one mid December event; we had numerous stretches of weeks at a time where it was hard to tell if simply delayed onset of indian summer or early spring. It's been at least 25 years since I have seen anything even close to this, in any location. Relative to normals for where I live today, I suspect this is probably amongst the mildest winter of my lifetime, as I don't think the early 1990's winters were as mild here as they were for points south.
  12. So many ex...planations in this thread. The reality is the long range forecasts almost universally predicted this winter would be front loaded. And it was. The problem was the front loaded period sucked, but it was still closest to average. January and February were far worse. Now we are merely waiting for the cold finish. Fast forward 60 days and the resultant wx is probably very similar in absolute terms this week, except more cold rain and less snow. Let's hope summer ends on time. No doubt it will be hot enough in the meantime.
  13. In a few weeks / months we will look back on this time period in amazement of how people were in such denial about how bad this season really was. People have been far more apoplectic during patterns far less hostile.
  14. 59 at JYO. Todays warm up over delivered.
  15. My perspective is the only difference between this year and 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 etc is that the NWP models have finally gotten good enough that we know well in advance the pattern has little if any chance to produce anything worthwhile. In those prior bad seasons, there were plenty of teases, the cold was always 10 days away, etc. This year really has been consistently bad, biased mild almost continuously since the 5th of July when Summer finally showed up and never looked back. Only change is it's been cloudy and damp for most of met winter. You would have actually seen a lot more traffic and a lot more whining those years, as people would track things for days only to have it fall apart after starting to take it seriously. At this point, the only thing that might surprise me is if we didn't see a prolonged period of cold and wet set in by at least the end of March. The sooner we can get that over with, the better. Would be the surest sign that Spring is actually on it's way.