C.A.P.E.

Well I hit 0.25". Probably not much more to come, but more than was forecast as recently as this morning. Biggest single rain event here in over a month. eta- total ended up at 0.4". Indeed, an over performer.

Good stuff headed south of me towards Denton. Was just outside and heard some rumbles of thunder down that way. eta- it wasn't my subwoofer/surround sound

Yeah hopefully I can get in on some of that action. I would love to end up with a quarter inch out of this.

0.12" of rain so far today. An over performer!!

Yes the parched soil has been dampened! 0.12" lol. At least I know it's actually possible for rain to fall again. We shall see about Wednesday. Looks good based on the 12z guidance, but the 0z runs looked pretty meh. Have to watch the "trends".

Just cleared up here after that sprinkle. Sun is out, temp dropped a degree, and a nice breeze from the NW. I guess the "cooler" air was lagging behind the actual front.

Looks like you are in a good spot for tonight and also midweek. Based on current guidance, it looks like your area should see 1 inch+ between now and Thursday.

Big temp gradient in the region. Temps rose overnight here. 54 and cloudy now. I was outside digging holes for some plants and was sweating lol. Maybe this is a sign my desert oasis is getting some rain tonight. eta- actually getting a light shower now.

Looks like the immediate coast of MD and DE may get a quick shot of decent rain tonight. Maybe I can score a shower? So here are Mount Holly's thoughts on the next potential event: Wednesday...Likely the most eventful day of the long term with one low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes and srn Canada while a second low forms off to the south and races off the Delmarva/NJ coasts and up into the New England waters. This second low is shown as eventually `bombing` by the EC/CMC models and just short of the criteria by the GFS. Either way, rains and gusty winds will develop Wed and last into the evening period before decreasing from W to E. Depending on synoptic/mesoscale factors a 1 to 2 inch rain may fall with the system. This has the "betwixt and between" look written all over it for a significant part of this region- and likely the areas that most need the rain. The NS energy and the and the low forming on the old front will congeal and perhaps result in a strong coastal low, but probably too far east/NE for most of us. This can be seen pretty clearly on the latest runs of the Euro and GFS. Precip maps are LOL, but not surprising. It bears watching, but given the dry run we are on, my expectations are very low.

Great pitching usually dominates in the postseason. Nats got it going on.

44 this morning. Looks like a darn near perfect early fall day on tap.

0z Euro Ens mean gets a half inch+ to the I-95 corridor for the midweek "threat". Good trends for now. Lets see if this slowly crumbles as we get closer, like all the rest lol.

Minot area getting crushed this morning with heavy snow under the deform band.

WRT the longer range models, we all know the drill in recent winters. Never expect an advertised -NAO to materialize until it does in real time. My hunch is we see much of the same since the last legit, persistent NA blocking period in winter- brief/bootleg ridging in the NAO domain. Not worth worrying over it since it is difficult to predict at range. The more important index to track imo is the AO, as a weakened PV is clearly a key factor for persistent cold air delivery into the midlatitudes, and correlates strongly with above average snowfall for this region. A -AO also increases chances for development of NA blocking.

I would think given the super duper impressive start to the Eurasian snow cover advance, the widespread anomalous warmth the Ukie is advertising must be pretty close to a meteorological impossibility. I can't imagine why Cohen would have even bothered to make that tweet.