C.A.P.E.
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Some showers moving through here now. Doesn't look awfully impressive on radar. I think the second round will be more robust further SW and west, and then possibly right along the coast. Might be a bit in between here. Hoping for a half inch of rain to keep the soil moist. Never expected this to be anything like the Sunday night event. Got 1.2" from that with lots of T&L and gusty winds, with some isolated heavy tree damage/power outages here and there.
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Good Friday happy hour. Was thinking red wine. I'm going with a DFH WWS instead. Basically a barley wine.
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Rtd208 is a bit giggly tonight.
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You might consider reading their discussion. Then compare it to LWX. Then, go back and read Yoda's post and mine again, except this time, read for context. Maybe you will have better comprehension the second time. Hope you get your epic flood though!
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We shall see. Mount Holly seems less impressed. I see no indication of widespread 2" amounts on any model, but PWATs are impressive so certainly could be some localized flash flooding. I don't see what you see with the SPC maps at all. A bit of a tick north with the Slight area, yeah. My area is still right on the line between marginal and slight. Literally no change. Enhanced risk area is still well south.
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This looks pretty meh for our area in general. Less impressive overall on recent model runs. Flooding threat looks extremely localized at best, and the same can be said for any severe potential. Mostly garden variety stuff, with some very isolated low-end severe. Different story for south-central VA and especially down into the Carolinas. Potential high impact for more in the way of excessive rains with some localized moderate wind damage.
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AFD from Mount Holly on the potential threats- Clearly the best chance of legit severe is south of the greater DC-BWI-PHI regions, into eastern VA and NE NC. Some isolated severe is possible locally, but the biggest threat would seem to be excessive rains in some areas with the potential training of cells.
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Most recent take from Mount Holly- For Friday and Saturday...A rather active time continues to look more likely as an upper-level trough closes off as it arrives into the East. The amplification of this system results in deep southerly flow increasing substantially ahead of the cold front Friday and Friday night, and this will result in ample warm air advection and ascent. Southerly surface winds could gust 30-40 mph Friday ahead of any showers/thunder as boundary layer warming will increase the vertical mixing. In addition, large scale ascent ahead of the closed low and strong short wave will team up with frontal forcing and potentially drive an embedded squall line eastward. The severe weather potential will depend on the amount of instability, however convection looks to arrive after peak heating on Friday. There looks to be plenty of shear in place given the robust wind fields, therefore if the parameters come together there is the potential for some severe thunderstorms with locally damaging winds especially across the southern areas. The guidance indicating a narrow but intense plume of moisture from the subtropics ahead of this closed low and with the flow increasingly more meridional, heavy rain and local flooding is possible.
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This could be said for pretty much all weather types in the MA, except for heat. Being bullish on heat is a near 100% hit.
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Mount Holly is a tad bullish on the severe threat- mostly for damaging straight line winds... The main concern for severe weather looks to be for the very late evening and especially overnight as forecast models continue to indicate a strong squall line forming to our west ahead of a cold front and moving west to east across the CWA roughly in the 6-10z time frame. Overall, severe weather parameters are some of the most favorable seen for the mid Atlantic this time of year. 0-1/0-3/0-6 km shear values look to be 30/45/65 knots respectively. This, coupled with ML CAPE values looking to be 500+ j/kg as convection enters our eastern PA zones. Not terribly impressive on its own but plenty given the very strong shear and dynamics along with L57 lapse rates that look to be in the 6.0 to 6.5+ C/km range. Of additional concerns is 0-1 km SRH values progged to be 300+ m2s2. What this all means is that damaging winds look to be a big concern as this squall line moves through with the SPC having placed an enhanced risk for severe weather for a large portion of the CWA except the coast and far northern NJ. In technical terms, a QLCS type event. Damaging straight line winds are typically the biggest threat with these types of events but given the parameter is place, isolated tornadoes are possible. In addition, the very heavy rain accompanying the showers/storms will bring a good potential for at least urban, small stream, and poor drainage type flooding with isolated flash flooding also possible.
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yeah, it says "a" tornado. Possibly the only thing more fruitless than tracking snow in this region, is tracking severe. lol.
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Sultry. First of many. Picked up 0.55" of rain here yesterday through early AM.
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High temp forecast busted big time today, but it is juicy out there. Predicted high was 77. Made it to 69. Currently 66/65.
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Heavy rain threat is pretty decent tonight along I-95. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive. From Mount Holly AFD for this evening into the overnight: We have concerns for heavy rainfall with this second round of showers and embedded storms. PWATs should rise to 1.5 inches in the warm sector as moisture is drawn northward with a few hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE being shown by models. Also, the south/east progression of the front should slow down with the mean flow running nearly parallel to it. So for these reasons not only will heavy rainfall be a concern but also the potential for training of heavier shower/storms in a SW to NE orientation. So this all said, urban and and small stream type flooding looks to still be a threat overnight as localized rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible within just a few hours.
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Snake oil. That dude needs to go away. Or at least find another "thing".
