CAPE

Enhanced risk over much of PA and NJ now.

There were 2 Pileated woodpeckers out back this morning, pecking on a fallen/rotting tree. Probably feeding on carpenter ants.

Slight risk for most of eastern MD and DE.

Decent thunderstorm just moved through with a super close lightning strike. Tripped a breaker. Wasn't expecting that this morning.

lol

From Mount Holly- While the sunshine Saturday afternoon may seem like a good sign of improving weather, it will actually only provide a false sense of security. We are expecting sufficient daytime heating in the afternoon to then result in convective development along and just ahead of the trailing cold front that is expected to sweep through late Saturday afternoon and early evening. Furthermore, severe weather parameters are looking favorable as convection develops. Abundant shear and sufficient instability along with favorable lapse rates will overlap across the region, leading to a risk for severe thunderstorms. At the moment, the greatest threat remains damaging winds within a thunderstorm as heavy rain within the line of storms will mix down the strong low-level winds, creating a line of strong winds as the front moves through. Forecast soundings also suggest a brief window of time when wind profiles will veer ahead of the frontal boundary, thus an isolated embedded supercell or a tornado or two is certainly possible across the area.

Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD- A robust cold front is expected to push southeastward through our region on Saturday evening. It should bring another round of showers with thunderstorms. Mixed layer CAPE values are expected to be marginally unstable, mainly in the 250 to 500 J/Kg range. However, it will be a fairly dynamic system and any thunderstorms have the potential to easily mix down some locally damaging wind gusts.

Os managed to hang on for a 10-9 opening day win over the saux.

It has been quite the winter in the high terrain of California.

Black Flag Barrel-Aged Cuvée for HH. Delicious.

Torch

At least we will be chilly and rainy.

Sipping on an LTO High Rye, a Barrel aged Imperial Stout from Ten Eyck. Outstanding.

Decent amount of rain fell overnight. Total since Thursday is 0.92". I'll take a short walk later and see how the wetland is looking.

Pretty steady rain falling once again the last hour or so. Up to 0.60" since yesterday morning.