CAPE

Beautiful day. High of 42 here.

Well, you should be with 50+ inches of snow.

Don't forget the lotion.

"sweating a tad"

You valley folk.

That March sun is a bit like a heat lamp.

Dressed for the cold and physical activity. Homeostasis.

I can't wait for the next posting of the Control run.

It loves to grow here, like most other weeds lol. Seems to come alive in late winter, as it stays low to the ground. I yank it out and throw down a ton of preen, but it will still come back.

Yeah no wind to speak of today. Was out putting down some mulch, and was sweating a tad. Sun is legit. 36 here now. Beautiful day.

Nothing like 360 hour snow maps. Everyone take a gander and get your expectations calibrated.

Low of 25. Raging Bitch is a good one. Haven't had that for awhile.

Still looking pretty interesting on the means beginning around the 15th, with ridging in the EPO/WPO domains, displaced TPV lobes, and with a neutral/negative PNA it looks like some southern waves ejecting eastward. Late, but maybe.. Probably the NW crew should be turned on at the thought of padding their already impressive snow totals.

It is interesting to look back on the large magnitude busts that were possible not that long ago. The modeling wasn't quite good enough back then in setups with subtle/complex interactions and timing of phases. As I recall there was a strong NS vortex rotating down and phasing with a southern stream wave, and the guidance had it occurring earlier- pretty much perfectly timed for the MA. In the end the southern wave wasn't captured until later, so it all came together further NE. We had the surprise big snowstorm in Jan the winter before that where guidance all had it staying south until within 24 hours. Huge forecast busts like those are much less likely to happen today.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/john-bolaris-storm-forecast-bust-snow-march-2001-20210304.html