C.A.P.E.

Radar is really pathetic considering the watch. I mean, I was expecting a complete zero today of all the days this week. <Shrugs shoulders>.

I was thinking exactly this on my drive home. Nothing like the last several days when there were towers all over the place.

I am a tad more optimistic on a -NAO because it has been persistent throughout the summer, the QBO as we head into fall looks more favorable, and we are at/near solar min. Also I believe we have had exactly 1(maybe 2) out of the last 24 winter months with an official -NAO. So we have Showme's WDI going for us.

It was posted here I believe. Pretty nice looking PAC, and EPO ridge, but meh NA.

Details! At this point it's at least nice to see the suggestion of a decent NA. CFS has been back and forth, and the Euro seasonal looks legit +NAO. We shall see. As I said, my only tracking interest over the next 1-2 months are ENSO and PDO. The rest we wont know much about until later in fall.

Looking at the latest guidance, tomorrow night , and then again Friday evening, look like the best potential for my area. And the latter depends on how fast the front moves through. That action could easily end up south of here.

Shocked me. Ofc I expect to see little to nothing here. Hope I am proven wrong, but I doubt it.

@showmethesnow Just saw this- its from Monday. Looks like he revised his initial tweet about the CanSIPS "fix". I thought the hindcast thing was mentioned in our discussion here, or maybe I saw it somewhere else. I didn't see this map posted anywhere in this thread, but maybe I missed it. Anyway it's interesting, and still a decent look.

Co-worker lives in Fed Hill. Nice area, and some great views of the Inner harbor.

This could happen with this front, if it is slow to move through and several perturbations can move along it with the front still in the area. Euro leans in that direction, while the GFS wants to basically plow the front through. Ensembles generally have it moving through more slowly. Even so, my yard would still manage to somehow miss the best precip lol.

That is a nice write up and cool vids on the SSW. I am with you on the CanSIPS. Just going to wait and see what the Sept edition looks like in about 10 days. I also expect it will look quite different.

I just want some damn moisture in the hard, desert-like soil so I can loosen it up and begin the annual task of reseeding.

Chances of decent rain over the next few days here look meh. NAM has less than a quarter inch through Sat in my yard lol. The front even looks like weak sauce on latest guidance. Certainly does not look like its going to deliver a widespread soaker. Same old haves/have nots stuff.

If you are not getting a storm now you probably won't see anything for the rest of the evening. The ongoing cells will likely weaken and die in place as we lose the daytime heating. Tired of these storms that fire on localized boundaries in a weakly forced environment. No trigger here away from the bays, and not close enough to the weak, diffuse boundary to the south and SW. That cold front better deliver something.

We get all kinds of cool cloud shots from the nearby storms that always miss. Its awesome!