C.A.P.E.

It is in reference to Wentzadelphia, aka HiZ. Maybe panic is too strong a word, but he seemed "overly concerned" about the possibility of a developing +AO when he saw a discussion (actually a tweet I think) on the new weeklies this morning. Not a big deal, but he is sort of known for being a worry wart.

I was half joking. It is fun to look at everything. It is inevitable there will be a time when the advertised pattern actually does look a mess. Hopefully we can save legit panic mode until then lol.

I concur. It is a bit early, so probably good to hold off on the micro analysis of a LR tool 40 days out. Ji hasn't even shown up yet.

Thanks!

I agree on the washing out. Makes it a bit ambiguous. IMO it probably goes from a weak -AO to neutral, but it is hard to say just looking at h5 and with lower res. Its a bit more clear looking at the MSLP anomalies. I should have posted those lol.

You should go for it. And too late, I posted some panels

@showmethesnow

It's towards the end of the run, so its washed out some, but I would say it is more neutral than anything. Lots of blue in the AO domain looking at MSLP anomalies, and the h5 heights are lower, beginning at about day 30. Prior to that, it looks at least like a slightly -AO. Plenty of orange at h5, and + MSLP anomalies. Is posting Euro maps still frowned upon? I can post a couple but I don't want to get on anyone's bad side this early in the season.

HiZ went there with the +AO panic on the weeklies.

I enjoyed interacting with Mitch here. We would have had probably 10 posts on the CFSv2 by now lol. Too bad he decided to leave, for whatever his reasons were.

Agree, and its not bad even towards the end, but in the context of the concerns of a +AO look, it does lean that way the latter part of November. IIRC last week's edition had the higher h5 height and MSLP anomalies in the AO domain, and actually increased the blocky look over GL towards the end of the run. But again, its a tool with limited skill 30+ days out, esp. when considering only a single run. If 2 or 3 consecutive runs tend to show the same pattern evolution in the LR, then I pay more attention.

Not surprising, but this weeks edition looks quite different than last weeks as we progress into Nov. It does look progressively less favorable up top in the second half of November. As you know, the weeklies can be a "fun" tool to look at 45 days out, but in reality it's based off of one model cycle and best used to get an idea of where things are headed maybe a week beyond day 15.

lol okay.

Low end warning level event here...5" (ducks) We had a solid advisory level event last December IIRC. I think it was 3-3.5" in my yard. Not sure about DC but I think some folks in the northern burbs may have hit warning criteria. You are right though, Decembers have been pretty lean for snow in the DC area in recent years. Going forward it would be nice if Dec could become a winter month for awhile- the new March, and March can revert back to a Spring month.

IIRC he was participating regularly like always last fall and into early winter, then had an illness, and after that he completely stopped posting.