C.A.P.E.
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About C.A.P.E.
- Currently Viewing Forum: Mid Atlantic
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Smash. Mouth. Football. Ravens might be the best at it now. Maybe 2 or 3 teams in the NFL that can actually do it.
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1.75" here, and pouring right now.
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CoastalWx posted this in the NE subforum. Nice read and "cutely" done. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2018-enso-update-relationship-advice
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Didn't you get some snow from 'Bomb Cyclone I', the storm that produced a blizzard at the beaches in early Jan? I had 6" imy and it stayed around for a week.
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Yeah the strat stuff is a definite wildcard with the guidance going forward, and it looks like the MJO will continue through the bad phases and head towards the COD as it does over the next week or so.
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Outside of a fluke, Dec is dead. There are some positive signs in the LR that indicate we may not have to punt the first couple weeks of Jan. I have been keeping any eye on the Pac wave train, particularly the persistent ridge to the N of Hawaii. Seeing some retrograding of that feature back towards the IDL in recent runs, esp on the EPS, allowing some ridging to develop in the W US.
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0z EPS is also hinting at development of NA blocking, and continues incremental improvement out west in the PNA/EPO domains over the past few runs. The AO looks more impressively negative, and there is a piece of the PV showing up on our side.
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Luckily that is something that will never be an issue for you as long as you live in this area.
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LR guidance is far from perfect, as we all well know. It seems the strength of the MJO and (lack of) progression into the better phases may be the biggest culprit for screwing up the pattern currently. But we also have a lot going on way upstairs with the SPV that may not be picked up by the guidance for another week or so. Hopefully that Pac wave-train will shift phase some to allow more ridging in the western US and up into AK. I am hoping that's where the 0z EPS is heading at the end of its run.
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Just over an inch of rain overnight. Yay rain! eta- I read the display wrong lol. Total so far is 0.85"
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Perhaps a baby step at the end of the 0z EPS run. Some improvement in the NPAC/AK and normal h5 heights in the western US.
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If the EPS has the right idea we may be looking at mid January realistically before the pattern gets decent again. Some help in the NA sure would help offset the badness in the NPAC if it indeed goes to crap. I guess the optimistic take is we muddle through the bad MJO phases, the SPV keeps taking a beating, and we see the ensembles respond with better looks sooner. Otherwise it may be shades down for 3 weeks or so.
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This sub-forum is big. The immediate coast got crushed in early Jan each of the past 2 winters. Both were low end warning events, 5-6" in my yard. There have been advisory events mixed in too during actual winter the last 2 years in many places. It has been pretty lean overall, but nothing unusual.
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Yeah we appear to have that moving in our favor for now. Hopefully the SSW talk is not just all hype, and the SPV continues taking a beating going forward.
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So on the 'model war', it sure looks like the GEFS has moved to the EPS idea of major retrograding of the NPAC features. That big a$$ blocking ridge and downstream EPAC trough doesn't look very Nino-ish. Hopefully that look is transient. Some blocking in the NA sure wouldn't hurt.
