CAPE

It's a 120 Friday HH.

Yeah, well proceed with caution lol. We have seen plenty of advertised good looks up top in the LR in recent winters and outside of something transient/bootleg, it never materializes. But given we are just about to October, and we are seeing some 'decent' signs, there is time for a bit of optimism before all hopes and dreams get crushed. And ofc there is the WDI. Oh and solar min. And smoke/ash!

And the latest CFS runs look like this for November. Matches his composite for November preceding those winters pretty well. Who knows if it has a clue- but it has been pretty persistent in hinting at HL +heights for Fall lately.

That was always the danger that winter with the big EPO ridge but no help on the Atlantic side. Anything that amped up was going to track west/inland. That one tracked right on the coast so it brought in a ton of warm air aloft for eastern areas.

Went over to pure rain here after about 5" of snow. It was definitely not a good storm for most of the coastal plain.

That's what I said- Transposed.. switched...inverted.. wrong phase.

CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.

You just may have to wait for your November paste bomb to dent that dry spell.

Once we get into winter with Nina atmospheric response, all those pretty colors will be transposed.

I get that. Just playing devil's advocate a bit. We always want HL blocking, regardless of ENSO state. It greatly increases the odds of significant snow events for this area. A favorable EPO is probably second after a -AO/NAO, as we get big cold air delivery and even without much help in the NA, we can snow.

If you live in the MA outside of the microclimate areas in the western highlands, lower the bar for "good" winter when we are in a Nina. Median snowfall should be the "goal". After last winter, a 10" total for DC/BWI would seem epic. Ofc there is always luck.

The h5 look leading up to the coastal blizzard of Jan 2018, aka bomb cyclone. Driven by a very favorable Pacific during that period. Defo a +NAO.

Gotta be careful with that "we" thing! Again, the 2 most recent Ninas both produced big snow events in early Jan(of '17 and '18) for eastern areas, with a pretty crappy look up top. Just saying, it can happen. In general, yes, we need a decent HL look(AO/NAO) for significant snow down here in a Nina, but the same can be said in most cases even in a Nino, and especially for the lowlands.

Too warm. Bring back Fall.

Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days.