JakkelWx

Tonight I'm having water on the rocks

sustained -PNA with -NAO.. Big trough in the west is forcing a strong ridge in the central and eastern US. -NAO in summer actually means heat, instead of cold like it does in the winter. Any cold shots are going to be brief before HHH returns. Seven day SST change in the North Atlantic is showing minor warming of the waters, just off the east coast, due to the previous warm up last week. Another, stronger warm-up starting today will likely cause a return of warmer than normal anomalies replacing the cold blob. Most of the coldest anomalies are farther north in Newfoundland and south of Greenland.

Looking like this summer could be another summer where New England gets spared from the HHH, while NYC south roasts. This month especially. Ridge moves east but it doesn't quite reach New England because of persistent troughing over Newfoundland.

today is nearly a carbon copy of yesterday

84/74. We drink the air today.

Mid - upper 80s in the forecast here today with very high dews. Doesn't look as cloudy as I once thought based on satellite for today

ANOTHER AOI and it's only May 28th. Third one. 30/30. Chances are pretty low for development, and if development occurs, it will likely be subtropical in nature. Can you imagine if Cristobal formed right before June 1st, making it the third named pre-season storm? Either way, possibly a grim sign of what's to come during peak hurricane season. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic. 1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Some magical force is causing our precious rains to disappear on the models as we get closer. UV index tonight is forecast to be a 0/10. We truly live in dark times nowadays. Edit: just like that, summer shows its true presence after a very brief cooldown.

AMATT All March All The Time, except when it isn't AMATT, its AHATT from late May - early October.

82/75. First really muggy day of the year.

DCA: +1.5 NYC: +1.2 BOS: +0.3 ORD: +2.4 ATL: +1.5 IAH: +1.1 PHX: +2.0 DEN: +2.3 SEA: +0.3

Funny excerpt from NWS Houston: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Beyond 240 hours? Why are you asking beyond 240 hours? If beyond 240 hours you go, only pain will you find. Yes, I see what the GFS is doing way out there, and I bring it up for the SOLE. PURPOSE. of being a buzzkill. We are now approaching the time of year when the GFS loves to generate tropical cyclones in the western Gulf out of the Central American Gyre in its extended range. The GFS does this...a lot. Every once in a great while, it happens in real life, too! So, if someone starts buzzing about the hurricane in the Gulf in two weeks, let us all take a deep breath and remember that far more likely than not, this is just the GFS reminding us that it is almost June, and nothing more. Regardless of what one model says about a couple weeks out, it is almost hurricane season, and we should be working on being prepared for anything that may come in the next several months as a matter of course. 25

Cranky says this is a random low.