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Found 19 results

  1. This one looks deserving of its own thread. FFC seems pretty bullish about large hail and some isolated nados.
  2. High CAPE moderate shear severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, including our own Mid-South. While the southern Plains may get rocked, my focus will be in/near our subforum region and the Mid-South. Friday IL/IN may go in Illinois and Indiana as the Thursday night Plains MCS ejects up that way and leaves an outflow boundary warm front hybrid. Friday heights will be rising slightly, and the next short-wave may be back in Missouri, but IL/IN will have high CAPE on a boundary. Still I would at least watch Friday. Atmosphere sometimes give hints of over/under the day before. Saturday could be a severe weather outbreak all the way from Oklahoma to Ohio, including all points in between and slightly south. Sunday morning the Saturday reports chart may look like something from an April outbreak. This time we trade in strong wind shear for high CAPE. Speed shear will be plenty for supercells though. Low level shear will be quite impressive on the synoptic warm front and any outflow boundaries from Friday night rain in Hosier Alley. Mid-South: On Saturday morning I expect a warm front and/or outflow boundaries to be draped near the Ohio River. Low pressure should track out of Missouri into the region. Smaller meso-lows are possible along the Ohio River Valley boundary as it lifts north. Locally higher storm-relative-helicity will be found east of any lows and really all along the boundary. Low level jet, which has frustrated Plains chasers, will be pumping right into the Mid-South. Mid-upper level winds will be WSW, none of this VBV prone SSW stuff. Though speed shear is not exceptionally high, turning with height and CAPE will both be robust. Stout upper level wave will come out by 00Z 5/28 and spark severe thunderstorms ahead of itself Saturday afternoon. SPC has Enhanced Risk Day 3. Pretty easy to read between the lines that a Moderate Risk is coming, perhaps as early as Day 2. MDT would probably centered from eastern OK into the Ozarks, but may extend into our Mid-South. At any rate Saturday severe storms are likely and may include tornadoes.
  3. Well unfortunately 2015's status as the least deadly year in the modern record has come undone in the final two weeks with two events claiming more than 10 lives (active December in strong Nino striking with a vengeance). It is that time to begin speculating about this upcoming season, since meteorological spring is ~2 months away once again. Given that we will be moving out of a super Nino towards neutral ENSO and possibly into a La Nina by summer/fall (likely still with +PDO conditions although clearly not as robust as previous years), there are a number of factors that can be looked at. One is the strong sub tropical jet continuing and possibly offering severe threats to the Gulf coast and Florida (supported by other cases within El Nino events like 1983 and 1998). Won't be surprised if the S Plains end up active once again, although they tend to do better in weak/moderate Nino events. A late start to the season is possible given the fact that several strong Nino winters featured snowstorms in the SE well into March. Overall, I'd expect a season somewhere near average this year, as most springs coming out of strong Ninos tended to hover around that (although there are some quite active ones like 1973 and 1998). 1958, 1983, 1966, etc. all fall into the average/perhaps slightly below average category. Number of tornadoes: 1205 First high risk: April 22nd
  4. Well it's that time of year again as the new year rapidly approaches. We are breaking out of the multi-year neutral ENSO phase into a Nino which may offer some promise to the High Plains/W TX for the first time in several years. After we thought things couldn't get much quieter overall after 2013...they did, with this year likely being the quietest on record in the modern detection era, despite a couple of more impressive events in late April and mid June. It seems a +PDO is likely to hold through at least a part of Spring, and Nino climo suggests that May and June may be the months to watch. Analog wise, at least for the winter in terms of what they did in the following springs, it is a bit of a mixed bag with years such as 2003 and 1977 being pretty active and some of the 1980s analogs (1980, 1987 and 1988) being ones best left forgotten. I'll post a poll for this year in terms of numbers of tornadoes, but it would be good to hear everyone's thoughts as always on what could be in store for 2015. I do think this should be a more active year for chasers in the Plains. Years with strong +PDOs, however, tended to be on the quieter side. For number of tornadoes, I'll go with 1065. For the first high risk, I will go with April 29th.
  5. Looks like a fairly active pattern over the latter part of this week and perhaps early next week particularly for the western side of our region.....Obviously severe is always a short fuse situation but it was most interesting to see SPC start actually using Day 6 severe outlooks (and potentially beyond).
  6. Quincy

    Severe Weather Threats: May 6-10

    As the pattern over North America shifts, an extended period of potential severe thunderstorms targets the central U.S. Although this update covers May 6-10, thunderstorms are ongoing today (May 5th) and were prevalent in prior days as well. The difference here is that we are gradually starting to see more and more potentially potent setups on the horizon. Wednesday, May 6th: This day has been on the radar for a while and things are coming into somewhat better focus. As shortwave energy pivots from the High Plains to central/northern Plains on Wednesday, an area of surface low pressure will develop. With more forcing in place than prior days, that alone signals an enhanced severe weather threat. — By Wednesday afternoon, a portion of the surface low should be crossing over from far eastern Colorado into western Kansas. The strongest forcing should reside from northwestern Oklahoma into central Kansas. However, the greatest instability will likely be displaced further south from central Oklahoma down into north Texas. Partial to considerable cloud-cover will tend to limit the amount of destabilization that takes place. That combined with modest flow at 500mb, progged to be on the order of about 35 to 45 knots, will tend to limit the extent of the severe weather potential. The surface low itself is also a bit elongated. If it were more concentrated and also deeper, that would signal a greater severe thunderstorm potential. Nonetheless, with a tongue of 1,000 to 2,000+ J/kg CAPE, favorable speed and directional shear, and some forcing aloft should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. — In terms of severe threats and the areas to watch… It comes down to northwestern Oklahoma into central Kansas for what should be the greatest severe threat. More isolated severe storms are still possible along a dryline down into western and central Texas. Large hail, perhaps very large in a couple of storms, appears to be the most significant risk. Damaging winds will be possible, especially into the overnight as storms may tend to merge into lines. There is a tornado threat, which should be maximized during the early evening hours, as the low level jet ramps up. As has been the case many times this year, while there is an evident tornado threat, the intensity and duration of any tornadic storms will be dampened somewhat by the limiting factors mentioned above. There is a fairly good likliehood that multiple tornadoes (but not a major outbreak) will be reported late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Thursday into Friday, May 7th and 8th, also provide some severe weather threat, but in a more isolated and sporadic nature. Upper level heights should remain fairly neutral through the period with no significant forcing noted in the models. Each day is likely to feature moderate instability and at least marginally supportive wind shear for supercell thunderstorms. The corridor for this period should be narrowed in on the Texas panhandle, portions of interior Texas and into Oklahoma. While some severe threat may nudge into portions of Kansas, the greatest (still somewhat limited) threat should hang back further south. Each day, storms may produce large hail with some damaging winds and a few tornadoes. — Each day, watch for a few things: First, where is the greatest instability? If cloud-cover and convective debris are limited during the morning, expect a somewhat enhanced severe weather threat during the afternoon. Also, look for any outflow or other mesoscale boundaries that can be the focal point(s) for storm development. Finally, notice any upper level perturbations, even if seemingly minor, as they could provide just enough forcing to locally increase the severe threat. Saturday, May 9th has the potential, but the keyword is potential, to be a significant severe weather outbreak with numerous tornadoes. The overall pattern is favorable, as a trough swinging from the Four Corners region to eastern Colorado/New Mexico by late-day will provide ample forcing from the High Plains into portions of the central to southern Plains. Caution must be applied when looking at the analogs, but there is a fairly strong signal from the analogs that favors widespread severe thunderstorms and at least isolated significant severe events, including strong and/or long-track tornadoes. — Now, even though some major events show up in the analogs, there are a few limiting factors that will not favor a high-end outbreak. While the flow and forcing increase aloft, 70-80 knots at 300mb and 50-60 knots at 500mb will fall well short of an event such as 4/14/12, which showed up as a GFS-based analog. As far as instability, even though moderate CAPE values are predicted, we’re not looking at strong to extreme instability. There seems to be a common theme, with this week especially, that the atmosphere is not quite taking full advantage, resulting in a less extreme “than possible” setup. — With all of this said, even if the timing is not exactly right, and the timing looks pretty favorable right now, severe thunderstorms are strongly favored on Saturday. What will be the difference between a low-end event and a more significant outbreak will come down to mesoscale details. What also favors severe weather on Saturday is how the models, overall, have been in very good agreement with the general setup on Saturday for quite some time. The focus on Saturday ranges from north Texas through much of Oklahoma and Kansas, to perhaps as far north as portions of Nebraska. All severe weather modes are anticipated, with an enhanced risk of tornadoes. Sunday, May 10th is a bit further out there, but yet another severe day is quite possible. Details are a bit more muddled, as the evolution of Saturday will have a sizeable impact on what transpires on Sunday. The threat zone inches somewhat east, ranging from portions of Texas up through central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and perhaps into portions of Missouri and Arkansas. In summary, expect severe weather threats for the rest of this week and likely through most of this weekend across the central U.S. At least a few severe thunderstorms are expected each day, with scattered severe storms on Wednesday and perhaps a mode widespread and significant event on Saturday. Tornadoes are possible each day, but the day with the likelihood for the most tornadoes is also Saturday. In terms of storm chasing, there should be many quality opportunities to get out in prime real estate, from the High Plains into the Plains west of I-35. With the threats covering a long period over some similar areas, it may be worth while to hunker down and start thinking of possible targets or even just places to stay (if you’re planning a multi-day trip). Without giving too much away, and since details may change, I tend to favor a corridor from the Texas panhandle into southwest and central Kansas. Climatology also favors this zone for the greatest severe weather threat and trends this year have kept the dryline a bit further west, mainly across these areas, during most events.
  7. Quincy

    Violent U.S. Tornadoes: 1962-2011

    Over a 50-year span from 1962 to 2011, the most violent (F/EF-4 and F/EF-5) tornadoes occurred over Oklahoma and Mississippi. The maximum grid-points reported 16 over that period, with two of those grid-points in central Oklahoma and one in central Mississippi. While a broad area from the Plains to the mid-South sees the most tornadoes overall across the United States, there are three sub-areas with the most violent tornadoes. Much of Oklahoma falls into that category, as it is widely considered to be in the heart of tornado alley. Further north into Iowa is another area that has seen the most violent tornadoes during the period. The third area falls across Mississippi, where the tornado season is relatively elongated from the heart of winter into mid-Spring. The tornado season in Oklahoma generally occurs in a narrower window in mid-Spring. The season in Iowa tends to fall from mid to late spring with a secondary peak in the fall. A smaller and less significant maximum for violent tornadoes can also be identified across the upper Ohio Valley. While the tornado season tends to peak there in mid-Spring, a few events have also occurred in the fall. An interesting tornado minimum occurs in a small portion of central Missouri. Among multiple factors is the unique geographical area Missouri falls into. The classic tornado setup in the Plains is driven largely by lee-side cyclogenesis and the dryline. As storm systems move across the Plains, the bulk of the violent tornadoes tend to occur west and northwest of Missouri. Also, the dryline tends to have trouble advancing enough east to penetrate far into Missouri. Likewise, typical tornado events in the mid-South tend to thrive off of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, producing tornadoes east of Missouri. With that said, higher instances of violent tornadoes have been noted across northwestern Missouri (tornado alley), far southeastern portions of the state (Dixie alley) and the devestating EF-5 tornado in Joplin, in far southwestern Missouri in 2011. East of the Appalachians, violent tornadoes are fairly uncommon. However, two particular regions have reported three or more violent tornadoes from 1962 to 2011. Portions of the Carolinas fall into that category. Further north, grid-points in the mid-Hudson Valley into southwestern New England have reported four violent tornadoes in that same span.
  8. Quincy

    May 2015 Tornado Forecast

    The April tornado forecast was a trial run and a lot has been learned since it was made. After some success with that forecast, I will be incorporating a lot more statistical analysis (analog data) into coming up with a forecast for the month of May. Quickly recapping April: Overall, April was a fairly steady month for tornado reports across the U.S., with 21 out of 30 days reporting tornadoes. April 1-9 was very active, including a notable, early season EF-4 tornado in northern Illinois. April 10-18 was relatively inactive, but had tornadoes reported in all but two of those days. April 19-27 was rather active, but no single day featured a major or significant outbreak. Most of the tornadoes in the month were EF-1 or weaker, although the April 9th EF-4 was an exception. Preliminary tornado counts indicate that the month was near to slightly below average in tornado activity. The prior forecast issued on March 31st predicted slightly above average tornado counts. Once the numbers become official, I will get into more detail with comparing the forecast vs. actual. Before we get into May, there are some things to consider with the current state of the U.S. Although a long-term drought continues for much of the Plains, heavy rainfall throughout April reduced drought conditions considerably across portions of Oklahoma and Texas. This is critical, because relative tornado inactivity during the first half of spring 2014 across the Plains was at least partially attributed to a lack of available moisture. When we think about creating environments that support tornadoes, moisture is key and that moisture source can originate in Texas. Yes, the Gulf of Mexico is another player, but that moisture must also be able to track hundreds of miles inland, across the big state of Texas. Additionally, the overall atmospheric pattern has shifted somewhat, as although there has been continued troughiness across eastern Canada and the Northeast, we are seeing a trend toward more ridging developing. This will have many implications on how the tornado season evolves into May. With less blocking across northeast Canada toward the North Pole, that should tend to favor positive height tendencies as well. (Not to mention seasonality helps with that as well) For this outlook, the focus will be split into two portions. May 1-10 and May 11-31. I will still include breaking the month down into thirds at the end of the outlook, but keep in mind that specifics beyond May 10th lack the confidence needed to get into extreme detail in that time period. May is also a potentially volatile month, as one outbreak or even one day for tornadoes can effectively skew the big picture. It would be difficult to nearly impossible to predict any such outbreak more than 10 days in advance. The point of this outlook is to look at May as a whole. May 1st through 10th: After a quiet finish to the tornado season in April, the first few days of May look to continue that theme. This should not last long, though, as both the operational and ensemble forecast models are in strong agreement with the expected pattern. On paper, it looks encouraging for severe weather prospects. An upper level trough and surface low should exit the New England area may May 3rd, leaving the Lower 48 with a relatively zonal pattern, at least for a short-time. Downstream ridging across the East should give way to a digging trough across the West Coast by May 4th to 5th. With some blocking across eastern Canada, we are looking at western U.S. trough that will persist for several days, with potentially multiple impulses rotating around from the Intermountain West into the Plains. This could ultimately evolve in many ways. At this point, the most probable scenario would appear to be two to three, perhaps four, days that are conducive for minor to moderate severe weather events, including tornadoes. I would not want to write off the potential for a big event just yet, but it seems more likely that we will have a series of smaller events, kind of how April panned out. What will be working in the favor of severe weather will be the bonus of a better moisture source across the southern Plains and moderate to strong instability ahead of approaching shortwaves. It is the details that get somewhat muddled out, with the amount of clearing/destablization, storm mode, locally backed winds, etc. Essentially, the pattern looks favorable for severe weather and tornadoes, particularly between May 5th and 8th. As mentioned before, maybe only two of those days wind up decent for severe, but if the pattern lines up just right, there could be multiple tornadoes each day. Verdict: Near average tornado activity between May 1st and 10th. The period should begin quiet, but then see multiple days with at least modest tornado activity. The period may close out with a couple of quiet days as the pattern trends more zonal, assuming the model projections are correct. May 11st through 31st: I have put a lot of time into assessing analog data for this period and not so heavily relying upon forecast model ensembles, as was the case with the April tornado outlook. What has been most alarming lately is that the longer-range models have really struggled beyond day 10 over the past several weeks and have often showed little to no skill in the period of days 15 to 30. This means that the models have flip-flopped back and forth, giving little meaningful insight to what might lie ahead. Now, I am not totally discounting the models here. Sometimes they can struggle during a large scale pattern change, much like what we may be seeing into May. I put a fair amount of stock into the European ensembles/weeklies, but I think taking a look at the past will help shed some light on what might happen in the future. To come up with analogs, I have looked at two things in particular. First, I assessed the short-term model analogs for May 1-2. Secondly, I looked at the day 6-10 ensemble predictions from the GEFS and those analogs. There was some overlap and plenty of similarities to note. In the broad scheme, the analogs began with the western troughing/eastern ridging that we are expecting to see into the first week of May. The analogs are then in strong agreement with positive height anomalies along and east of the Rockies from the 2nd week of May, pretty much through the entire month. After gaining visibility to the latest 00/30 Euro Weeklies, pretty much the same is the case here. That only increases confidence in this forecast. I pretty much disregarded the CFS entirely for this outlook, as its members are all over the place for May and as an ensemble system, has not had a good track record as of late. Going back to the ridge axis, that is the key thing to consider. The indications, in general, point toward a mean ridge axis setting up somewhere between the Missouri River and the Mississippi River. The latter, or a further east ridge axis, would be more supportive of tornadoes, allowing for troughs to dig a bit further south and west into the Plains. Even the former would be encouraging, as it would tend to favor High Plains activity. That region has not had a great chase season in a while. Based on the reports, it appears as if 2010 was the last solid year there and 2008 was decent too, particularly across western Kansas. Either way, since we are looking at a broad period here and kind of splitting hairs, there is nothing necessarily stopping from a rogue, deep trough to swing through, although it would appear that if that was going to happen, it would tend to favor late May over mid-May. As a result, I am leaning toward a somewhat more active end to May, even though I do expect a fair amount of activity in the middle of the month as well. (When I say fair amount of activity, I expect several days with scattered severe reports, again, in some ways similar to what April featured) Verdict: Near average tornado activity between May 11th and 31st. The middle of May holds some potential, but is forecast to feature slightly below average tornado reports. Into late May, there are some indications that tornado activity could rebound to near to slightly above average levels with more potential activity. When looking at some of the recent analogs (over the past 25 years), 3 out of 4 had slightly to moderately below average tornado counts in May. On the flip side, they tended to favor average to even very active months of June. Since May 2015 does not appear to be a particularly close match to any of those analogs, I would take that information with a grain of salt. If anything, it does give at least some additional confidence in the thinking that May could end more active and lead into another active June. I do not want to get ahead of myself here, so we will hold off on further discussion about June until the next monthly tornado forecast. May 1-10 forecast: Near average tornado counts in the U.S. May 11-20 forecast: Slightly below average tornado counts in the U.S. May 21-31 forecast: Near to slightly above average tornado counts in the U.S. May 2015 tornado estimate: 260 tornadoes in the U.S. (near to slightly below average) For those wondering, the top 5 analogs are as follows, beginning with the given date and extending out 20 days: 4/28/1994, 5/12/1991, 4/28/1957, 5/10/1993 and 5/18/1977, in that order. The “recent” analogs mentioned earlier in the post were 1990, 1991, 1993 and 1994.
  9. nrgjeff

    Severe Storms April 9

    Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.
  10. About that time of the year again. Following two quiet years number-wise (despite a number of significant events including 3/2/12, the May events this year and 11/17), I'll go with 1195 tornadoes. First high risk on March 26th.
  11. Quincy

    U.S. Tornado Days Per Year

    The United States has a greater frequency of tornadoes than most other counties. For many factors, the vast majority of tornadoes occur east of the Rocky Mountains across the continental U.S. Although the central and southern Plains region is widely considered to be "Tornado Alley," there are other areas that see just as many tornadoes, if not even more. The two graphics below are adaptations of NOAA/NWS SPC graphics found in their Tornado Environmental Browser. A broad area from the east slopes of the Rockies east to the west slopes of the Appalachians typically see the most days with tornadoes per year. Two local maximums can be identified in northeastern Colorado and central Florida. While these areas may see numerous tornadoes in any given year, they are generally low on the EF-scale. The central Appalachians feature a local minimum of tornadoes, but as one travels east, the frequency of tornadoes increases. While terrain by itself will generally not have much of an effect on a tornado, especially a significant (EF/F-2 or stronger) one, there are reasons why terrain affects tornado frequency. In the Plains, lee cyclogenesis combined with a surge of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and drier air from the Rockies tends to create a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms and tornado development. Across the East Coast, there is less real estate to work with when considering the proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Also, wind out of the south to southeast in the lower levels will often mitigate the risk of severe thunderstorms, especially in the spring and early summer months from the mid-Atlantic region into the Northeast. The placement of a "Bermuda" high and/or a "southeast ridge" of high pressure will tend to limit the formation of strong non-tropical low pressure systems along the East Coast during the warmer months, as the jet stream is often displaced further northwest. The frequency of days with significant tornadoes is in some ways similar to, but also has differences in comparison with the frequency of days with all tornadoes. While portions of Colorado and Florida may see the most tornadoes overall, there are two distinct areas that feature a much greater frequency of significant tornadoes. The southern Plains into Dixie Alley (lower to mid-Mississippi Valley) will on average experience the most significant tornado outbreaks. Here, there are three factors that are probably most responsible for this. First, their proximity to warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico fill favor higher dew-points and greater instability. Second, the tornado season is a bit elongated here. While April into May have featured the most significant tornadoes in Dixie Alley, the late fall into winter months have also included several major tornado outbreaks. Finally, there may be at least some influence from tropical systems. While tropical storms and hurricanes often do produce tornadoes, it should be noted that most of these tornadoes are generally not significant. Eastern Nebraska into the Midwest also averages an elevated number of days per year with significant tornadoes. Here, while the tornado season typically peaks in June, at least some fall tornado events have spawned significant tornadoes this far north. In 2013, October 3rd-4th recorded six significant tornadoes from eastern Nebraska into Iowa, with the major tornado outbreak of November 17th featuring 32 significant tornadoes in the Midwest. Other noteworthy observations: Missouri is an interesting case. The western portion of the state is often considered to be in tornado alley and some maps will place southeastern Missouri in Dixie Alley. The state has seen plenty of significant and even violent tornadoes, with the Joplin tornado of 2011 being one of the more recent examples. However, a small section of central Missouri features a local minimum in terms of both tornadoes and significant tornadoes. One possible explanation can be their location being in a "dryslot" of sorts for tornadoes. For storm systems developing just east of the Rockies, the eastward extent of associated severe weather will often fall short of central Missouri. Likewise, systems developing in the lower Mississippi Valley often form a bit too far east to target central Missouri with the most tornadoes. West Virginia has less tornadoes than most states east of the Rockies. One factor that immediately comes to mind would be the population density and terrain, which may limit some tornado reports. However, their location along the Appalachians certainly plays a role in the lower frequency of tornadoes. The higher elevations will typically have less instability. Likewise, moisture pooling will typically favor higher dew-points west and east of the Appalachians, leaving West Virginia in another tornado dryslot. According to the NWS, West Virginia has no recorded EF/F-4 or 5 tornadoes. With that said, a long-track F-5 tornado in southeastern Ohio narrowly missed passing into West Virginia before lifting. Also, an F-4 tornado that dropped southeast of Pennslvania into Maryland also lifted shortly before it would have passed into West Virginia.
  12. The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at another severe weather sequence from the southern Plains into the Southeast US. Just like last time the models seem to be trending from a Plains highlight to a Dixie Alley highlight. South severe is still 8-10 days away so uncertainty is high. Though one cannot pinpoint details or target areas, in May one can assume severe weather will verify at least 2-3 days out of the 6-10 day period.
  13. Well this one seems to have snuck up on us a bit, the strong trough moving across the Four Corners tomorrow will become increasing neutral/negatively tilted and spread strong shear profiles across a large section of the Gulf Coast region by tomorrow evening associated with a rapid developing surface low. In addition to that, strong moisture advection south of a retreating warm front (speed of the movement will be crucial with the expectation of a large amount of precip along it) should provide at least modest instability despite average mid level lapse rates. The trough orientation/low level wind fields appear highly favorable for supercells and potentially a few significant tornadoes across LA and S MS into S AL later into the evening (somewhat reminiscent of Christmas 2012 in terms of threat area and the concern about warm frontal movement). This thread can be moved at the mods' discretion since this will be a likely be a multi-region event, perhaps continuing further into the SE/EC on Monday. In any case, this D1 is a borderline moderate risk for tornadoes and is an excellent discussion from Peters and Dr. Marsh.
  14. Hello everyone! My name is April Vogt, and I am a 24 year old undergraduate at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. I have been working on an ongoing project revolving around tornado predicting. As of this year, I devised a hypothesis correlated around years of research that may be able to predict the touch down zone and path of a tornado. With this, I devised a project entitled "The `Lo`Lo Project" where I plan to conduct experiments to either support/disprove my hypothesis. After speaking with people who have experience in the field of meteorology, and a few in tornado research, I have been supported and given more sources to analyze that are yet to disprove my idea. I just started a website discussing the project. Some portions (such as the research and experiment portions) are not fully complete (they are informational for one learning about the project). I am continuing to expand this site and am hoping to have it completed in the next week. Please let me know what you think, I am excited to respond to questions/comments/concerns. Also if you have facebook please like us as well. Look forward to your response (: April V Website: http://loloproject.weebly.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theloloproject
  15. It's a bit early in the year, but with the winter being kind of puny in terms of snowfall I figured I'd at least make this thread and let it sit for when people have downtime. The folks interested in severe weather from this forum can discuss last years events before the season and then any upcoming threats before they become imminent. I guess the highlight of 2012 would be the June Derecho event that sparked off the horrid "Derechosauruswrecks" nickname. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120629 June 1 was also noteworthy - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 September 8 looks like it had a decent number of reports locally as well - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120908 And September 18 - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918 *********** I haven't looked at what our severe season could look like but I seem to recall Ian saying it could potentially suck. There was a good link posted over in the New England thread - really neat stuff http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/ I just hope we don't have too many 100 degree days...the summers can be brutal around DC. It's one of the few things we can actually do well with!!! (heat).
  16. The details are still far from being determined, but I think it's about time to start a dedicated thread for the midweek system. I don't want to dive into too many details just yet, but with the intensity of jet coming ashore early in the week and where it's coming ashore, a significant severe threat seems almost inevitable. Tuesday might be a little sketchy in the moisture department, but with well-established return flow in place, Wednesday and Thursday should have no problems in that department. In terms of location, it's a pick your poison right now on the models. The GFS has an extremely potent threat for nrn OK, KS, and srn NE, while the Euro, with its more meridional flow over the plains, would more favor OK and nrn TX, especially for tornadoes. From my experience, to see the Euro verify, I would probably want to see the jet streak come ashore with more of a NW-SE orientation to get a setup more like the Euro. Between that and the Euro's tendency to dig a trough too much in the SW US, I'm probably going to side more with the GFS leading up to this event unless we see evidence of more digging as it comes ashore. The bottom line is that a jet disturbance even stronger than the previous humdinger is coming and has the potential to lead to a series of several significant severe weather days.
  17. Anyone have any ideas on Spring 2013 for the region? Are we looking at an early Spring? Post your thoughts here. Personally, I'm rooting for a mild, dry Spring. But what does everyone else think?
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