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Looks like the first ten days or so will be warm, but that is not a lock. After three years of La Nina, we are probably closing-in on our last few months of this ENSO phase. La Nina's often yield warm Januarys, but something makes me think we buck the trend this month for at least part of the month. I have January as AN in my seasonal forecast, but a portion of the last 20 days of the month could be quite cold. I still expect some wild swings this winter w/ a base warm pattern and very cold interludes.
"Marginal" SVR/FF risk 3P Today-3P FRI July 30-31
wdrag posted a topic in New York City MetroUncertainty is considerable and confidence in any severe storm today is below average. Feel best chance 3P-10P and mainly southern CT. Much greater confidence for an event to monitor late tonight-Friday morning, especially midnight-Noon when the front stalls, surface convergence produces heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in NJ-LI in high PWAT airmass, especially I78 south where 6 hour "isolated 3-4" rains could occur in Ocean, Monmouth or Mercer County. It is s of I78 where a storm may become severe after midnight and a little concerned about a supercell there early Friday. A fair amount of low level shear in a somewhat high CAPE environment is modeled down toward the Jersey shore s of Sandy Hook Friday morning. So not guaranteeing the second paragraph above but a number of models are heading in this direction as of 6AM/30. Meanwhile, some beneficial rainfall is seeming headed for parts of nw NJ, maybe even all of the forum area where storms missed last week.