Rtd208

The heaviest rain shown on both models have been shifting around quite a bit, nothing to really worry about. This is going to be a very dynamic/convective system with strong winds, heavy rain and some severe weather possible including the chance of a tornado or two.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

The 18z GFS continues the wetter theme, looks like 1.5-2.0" of rain for the immediate metro area with more to the north and west.

FWIW the 18z NAM is quite wet for the area and both the 12z GFS/Euro had QPF increases.

Another increase. FWIW the 18z NAM is quite wet for the area Tues/Wed.

I am wondering if the WAR was what Larry Cosgrove meant when he said in his newsletter last night that more cold could be centered over the Great lakes versus the Eastern Seaboard and why cold and snow lovers could be somewhat disappointed again this winter but it will still be less "non-wintry" then the last couple of winters. Still a bit early to know for sure what impact the WAR could have on our winter, right now I am more concerned on it becoming more active storm wise which it looks like is in the process of happening.

Nice to see the Euro bump precipitation amounts back up, curious to see what the 12z runs do today. The GFS has also increased amounts as well especially for Tues/Wed.

Its sent via an email group. You have to subscribe to receive it.

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

Shocker, as the event draws closer precipitation amounts go down. This has been the trend for months.

Current temp is 78 here.

Current temp is 78 here.