Stormlover74

Yeah there was a decent stretch of cold the final 10 days that month

This weather blows

Down to 54

Just getting some heavy rain at the moment. No thunder

Looks like another batch of showers and downpours approaching

I don't remember the last overnight tornado watch we had

Should be getting a watch soon

Updated Upton discussion Strengthening low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley this evening to Upstate New York by late. LLJ helps push a warm front farther north, with the entire forecast area in the warm sector. A trailing cold front then reaches west of the Hudson towards daybreak. There`s enough moisture and lift for chances of showers at any given point tonight, but high res models continue to key on the main focus for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. The main line of showers and thunderstorms will enter western zones 06z to 09z, and then quickly move across the NYC/NJ metro 09z to 12z, and then across eastern zones shortly thereafter. The line will be forced by convergence of a +3 to +4 standard deviation PWAT subtropical moisture plume ahead of the front as well as deep layered lift enhanced by upper jet dynamics. Forecast rainfall amounts are generally 1/2 to 1 inch across the region with locally higher amounts possible. Much of this rain may come within the line of showers and thunderstorms. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main threat. The relatively fast movement of the showers and thunderstorms should limit any flash flooding threat, but WPC does have marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall from around NYC and points west. SPC has placed portions of NE NJ, NYC, and the Lower Hudson Valley in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. This is where there is some surface based CAPE progged by some models. The main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts. The environment is highly sheared with low CAPE, so there is potential for rotation, but the potential is very low. A stronger low-level inversion should limit the severe threat east of the Hudson River where instability is elevated.

Feels like the marine airmass has progressed west. Down to mid 60s, upper 50s nearby

Tornado watch for much of PA

Yeah they're up to 68 now

Very foggy out here too

Finally getting some sun. Up to 50

I don't. Last year was awful particularly August and September

yeah temps are going in the wrong direction. Was 54 earlier now 47