Neblizzard

See you immediately think we all assume it’s a KU pattern when it clearly is not. You can snow to the coast with a perfectly timed high to the north. All the models have shown this trend today. Once the MJO reaches phase 8 , there will be a 7-14 day lag in the pattern which will set up a potential major snowfall for the end of the month. Hopefully the mods see your constant trolling posts and ban you again.

You don’t need a -NAO for a modest size snowfall genius. If you have perfect timing with a high in Canada , that technically acts as your block. I learned that a long time ago in college.

I remember when you were banned for 4 months last year. Too bad it wasn’t permanent. Again your analysis is horrible, the models have trended east with the ridge over Alaska ( it’s more -EPO). The confluence over Canada acts as your block. So if that is right on the models this will not be a warm solution. The MJO heading into a favorable phase 8-1 is going to take about another week before the models fully grasp onto the pattern. I think this winter will end much like last years.

I really wonder if you’re snowman19 , but just under a different username.

He does that every winter. Hugs every single model run.

You trust the models 15 days out ? We’ll see how that pans out going forward. I always liked after New Years and beyond for this upcoming winter

They do . Overall a -EPO/-AO/-NAO thru Christmas with a small break in between

45”-55” inches of snow for NYC/EWR December A/N temps - 3 inches of snow January N temps- 13 inches of snow February B/N temps- 30 inches of snow with a KU storm mid-month March N temps -5 inches of snow

It’s still too early to know where Florence will track , but the odds are increasing for an east coast hit. The massive WAR will give her plenty of fuel and runway. 06z GFS verbatim shows 10-12 inches of rain for the area. The next few days will be telling on the models

GFS is a nightmare scenario for the mid Atlantic up thru our area. It’s trended more towards EURO.

Notice the convection near Baltimore/DC is moving due east , this will all fill in and hit the metro after 8pm

For south NJ . Still time for this to come north

Snowing very heavy in Port Elizabeth NJ. Based on radar trends this should be over between 9-10 am . I like my 2-4 inch call...just amazing for April

Ever since he got banned we’ve cashed in on snow . That dude was like a black cloud over our heads Anyway I’m liking 2-4 inches for the city with this upcoming wave. It’s coming at a good time, 12z nam shows 1 inch per hour rates for a time. Then we shift our focus to next week.

Almost 5 inches in Kenilworth with the worst to come this evening . We will hit double digits . Not an under performer in my book