Neblizzard

Yes but a very close call none the less , there's still plenty of time for the models to figure out the upper air pattern. The trend today is for a slowing moving Maria up the coast and a much weaker Jose...

Hour 174 200 miles east of Norfolk moving WNW, and she's a monster

12z Euro Hour 96-120 Maria slows down and starts to turn NE, there's a building ridge over the northeast but the incoming trof from the west is making a push east. This may be heading OTS

So JB thinks it curls northeast near Maryland ? Very few ensemble members show that. I do agree with his landfall though.

Euro and GFS seem to have this locked in now. Still some time to change but the consensus has grown for a major impact from Florida to the Carolinas

Now pulling NW, looks to make Landfall along the GA/SC coast

She encountered a bit of shear on the western side this morning. The 5pm advisory has shown the pressure drop ( now 914 mb) so I predict she will intensify overnight.

She's pulling north at 108 and is just north of Miamis latitude , that's def east of 12z

The European from last night trended towards the same idea. Still plenty of time to figure out the evolution of the 500mb pattern over North America and to see if we can get enough WAR. A fish storm is still very much on the table.

Looks like the 6z GFS will be well east of 0z, Irma starts the turn north east of the Bahamas

I think In the next 4-5 days we can say with good confidence whether she fishes or hits the US. We need to get inside a week out

Looks like she is going north of the Antilles

The 0Z Euro takes Irma directly over Cuba at 240 hours. The 6z GFS is way west of 0z approaching the Southeast coast at 240 hours. It then slams NC all the way up to NYC and New England.

The 0Z Euro takes Irma directly over Cuba at 240 hours. The 6z GFS is way west of 0z approaching the Southeast coast at 240 hours. It then slams NC all the way up to NYC and New England.

The 0Z Euro takes Irma directly over Cuba at 240 hours. The 6z GFS is way west of 0z approaching the Southeast coast at 240 hours. It then slams NC all the way up to NYC and New England.