Neblizzard

Doesn’t matter , it’s now casting time .

Since when is the NAM been God like this winter?

We need that vortex south of Alaska to slow down or retrograde. If that can happen we’ll build some ridging out west. The negative NAO looks great but the pacific can do it’s damage with this set up.

Yes it is the only model showing this scenario. Pay no attention to snowman19s posts. He’s like a parrot every winter.

Not sure what you’re looking at. The ensembles have a robust -NAO building by day 8. Whether that happens or not is another story

Here’s the 6z NAM

Correct. Nice front end thump that goes to rain. The ULL takes it time on this run but eventually we get into the CCB

It’s heavy snow from hours 81-84 . Should be about the same precip as 12z

Always ? That’s not true. We all missed your posts the last year . Glad to have you back.

Less confluence Over southeastern Canada, so the primary is able to move further north. Flips to snow as the coastal takes over. 1-2 inches for the city.

See you immediately think we all assume it’s a KU pattern when it clearly is not. You can snow to the coast with a perfectly timed high to the north. All the models have shown this trend today. Once the MJO reaches phase 8 , there will be a 7-14 day lag in the pattern which will set up a potential major snowfall for the end of the month. Hopefully the mods see your constant trolling posts and ban you again.

You don’t need a -NAO for a modest size snowfall genius. If you have perfect timing with a high in Canada , that technically acts as your block. I learned that a long time ago in college.

I remember when you were banned for 4 months last year. Too bad it wasn’t permanent. Again your analysis is horrible, the models have trended east with the ridge over Alaska ( it’s more -EPO). The confluence over Canada acts as your block. So if that is right on the models this will not be a warm solution. The MJO heading into a favorable phase 8-1 is going to take about another week before the models fully grasp onto the pattern. I think this winter will end much like last years.

I really wonder if you’re snowman19 , but just under a different username.

He does that every winter. Hugs every single model run.