Neblizzard
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About Neblizzard
- Currently Viewing Forum: New York City Metro
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Add the CMC to the list. About a 24 hour event of heavy rain for the area. Wind not nearly as strong as on the GFS since it tracks right over the area. It's still good to see some model agreement..and hopefully the trend continues.
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Slow moving soaker once again
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That's the second solution in a row the GFS has shown a slow moving soaker for the Mid Atlantic up thru New England. Hopefully the Euro and UKMET continue to remain on board. The UKIE trended towards the EPS ensembles last night which is a great sign.
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The 06z GFS is a driving rainstorm for this Saturday, a slow moving intense coastal that rides up the coast. Looks to be a 24-30 hour event verbatim.
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Radar is starting to blossom off the NJ coast and is expanding in coverage. Looks to be a wet and windy nightX
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It's amazing how badly the models struggle even 12 hours before the event.
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The coastal will slow down once it forms offshore, prolonging the rain into the overnight hours. There may be a brief lull but we are in for a deluge the next 10-12 hours.
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Exactly because we know how great the EPS did with this last storm. It locked it in over the weekend and still failed. I'll focus on the NAM on this one.
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03z HRRR continues to show very impressive amounts for northern NJ. 18-19 inches of snow for the NYC suburbs with little mixing.
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Holy smokes on the UKMET. 850s get to +1 but at the very end of storm so nyc may mix at that point. This is widespread 2 feet across the area.
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If the low was still intensifying that 700 track would be atrocious. However due to occlusion ( even if we mixes on the GGEM for a time) that's an almost all snow event.
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Canadian is an absolute burial for the entire area.
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GFS is a crippling snowstorm, cold thruout the metro , no mixing issues.
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That's the 12z RGEM. It shows a lot more snow than I originally thought. Only about a 2-3 hour period where nyc mixes. My apologies for jumping the gun, I wasn't being specific in my post. Northern NJ gets buried on this run.
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Yeh it's east and much colder . 981 east of NJ heading for the twin forks. NYC crushed