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Everything posted by Neblizzard

  1. It’s a west based -NAO which is helping the strong confluent flow over the northeast. In this instance a -PNA can help us by building a stronger SE ridge. This will become a squeeze play , the EPS and its members keep coming north but only so far north. I like where we are 5 1/2 days out.
  2. You said the same thing about the December storm. How the GFS couldn’t be wrong with the strength of the confluence up north. We know how that turned out. This has room to come north some especially if the SE ridge can expand a bit.
  3. Exactly. You don’t need a strong storm with the amount of moisture this storm will tap into. Having a massive high to the north will generate strong winds even without a very deep surface low
  4. Yes it’s much better than 6z. The high is stronger to the north and trends at H5 were a step in the right direction. I would take that run as a positive for the metro.
  5. The period from Christmas to New Years looks really good on the EPS. Robust PNA ridging coupled with an -AO/-NAO. Hardly La Niña like...
  6. My brother and I met storm field several times when we used to visit Larry Cosgrove at UPN 9. Two class acts
  7. 50/50 low and -NAO are your friend so far. Hopefully that look holds. I’ve been saying getting the SV to weaken enough is our best shot at fending off this La Niña. We’ll see...
  8. Models can’t be trusted 24 hours out let alone 15 days out. It’s amazing you always post when they show an unfavorable solution for snow. The models are finally predicting warming closing in on the polar stratosphere . If the PV stretches then cold air can plunge south mid-late December into January for the east.
  9. I see you’re back in full force hoping for another blowtorch . Glad to see you posting again.
  10. Actually now that I’m looking storms are firing in western NY state. That could be our shot later on tonight
  11. Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing . Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done.
  12. If Laura makes landfall at 150 mph it’s really redundant at that point. She’s a true buzzsaw,, that storm surge is going to be incredible
  13. How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?
  14. Yup sun is coming out now , that was one of the concerns . Instability is rising .
  15. The 6z NAM has the low going right over NYC. Perfect track for 3-4 inch rain totals.
  16. Doesn’t matter , it’s now casting time .
  17. Since when is the NAM been God like this winter?