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Found 6 results

  1. Here is the second updated map version for our storm on Monday (Christmas Day) has everyone done their Christmas shopping, I am doing mine last minute today.
  2. Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude. This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain. GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle. This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st. This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
  3. What would your ideal climate look like? Imagine you could have it right where you are. This is the place to construct a get away from the disappointments of model failure, Great Lakes Cutters, and all that other stuff. Attached is fantasy suite year 20XX for ORH. What's yours Expect we may be distracted by the imminent/possible/hoped for 1/22-24 snowstorm 00FantasyYearInitialConstruct-1 (Autosaved).pdf
  4. Here I'm going to show you the 00z NAM solution and why I think it is very close to becoming a snowstorm for the 2/3rds of eastern New England. 00z NAM shows a primary (Pacific Jet) shortwave over OK and the secondary (Arctic Jet) shortwave over ND. This is at hour 48. Image one is the 48 hour mark at H5. See how the shortwaves are diving southeastward into the long wave trough with H5 low centered over Northern Ontario, Canada province. The second image is the 72 hour H5 depiction on the 00z NAM tonight. Primary shortwave over NYS and the second shortwave is over KY. If these two phase or are able to merge then the arctic shortwave will be able to bring cold air over the Gulf Stream and allow an explosive cyclogenesis to occur. However I give this a mere .5% chance at happening. However I give a merge or phase about 30% chance at happening. Simply put these two images show the evolution of the long wave trough and a few stout shortwaves within the flow. If the second shortwave which is the cold air source can catch up to the primary Pacific jet shortwave then we get a snowstorm as the cold air phases with the moisture source. So I give a snowstorm about a 25% chance at happening if the cold air can catch up with the second low, but this is very small chance. A one in four chance is pretty low. However a few flakes in western SNE could happen while ME and New Brunswick, Canada sees another full fledged snowstorm while Nova Scotia is in another rainstorm. We should see what the next 48 hours bring, I will continue to update everyone with this system according to the latest model runs in this thread. So please stay tuned, there could be a few surprises.
  5. Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included. Light rain developed during the morning hours on November 26th and mixed with some sleet inland. Wet snow initially confined to the far northwestern corner of the state. As steadier precipitation moved in, a slight southeast shift of the snow/sleet line was observed with some modest evaporational cooling. However, much of coastal and southeastern Connecticut stayed predominantly rain. The main reason for the mixed precipitation and sleet was a warm layer in the atmosphere around 700mb. As precipitation became heavy, sleet fell across much of central Connecticut. Wet snow continued across northwestern Connecticut and rain moved as far northwest as Meriden and Hartford with some warming aloft nudging into the valleys. Even in those areas, the 2-meter temperature hovered around 34 degrees for much of the event, which did not allow for significant amounts of snow to accumulate. Precipitation tapered off to scattered snow showers by early evening. As cooler air gradually funneled in, a light additional accumulation of snow was reported in many areas. A few broken, but locally enhanced bands of snow continued into the early morning hours on the 27th. The greatest snowfall totals were in the range of 6 to 10 inches across northwestern Connecticut. Totals dropped off fairly quickly to the south and east. A narrow area of 3 to 6 inches was observed near and just northwest of I-84. Just southeast of there, 1 to 3 inches was reported and the southeastern third of the state generally saw less than one inch of snow. Where the snow did accumulate, it had a very high water content, especially those areas that battled between a mixture of snow, sleet and rain.
  6. Here is a snowfall map that I created using reports from various sources. Many of the reports came from this forum and the National Weather Service. Only social media reports that passed through quality control were considered. All reports gathered were carefully considered and compared before being included. Light rain, with light snow across the higher elevations, developed across Connecticut during the evening hours of November 13th. The steadiest and heaviest snow fell around midnight and tapered off during the pre-dawn hours on November 14th. Most locations eventually changed to snow, with the exception being the immediate shoreline and urban coastal corridor from New Haven down toward the New York border. On average, the hills saw anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow, with generally an inch or less across the valleys and shoreline. The highest amounts around and just over 3 inches were reported in Litchfield County.