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AMZ8990 posted a topic in Tennessee ValleyIt’s early August and Football season is right around the corner, and with that so is cooler temps and the season of Fall in Tennessee. We can use this thread to keep the summer thread free of fall/winter talk. I hope everyone has had a good summer so far. I’m looking forward to the upcoming months and what they possibly could bring weather wise for all of us!
Saw some folks asking for a single thread for Florence. Figured I’d go ahead and make it since I had time on my lunch break. Thanks to all who have been posting in the winter thread, it’s been a great disco the last few days.
Here I'm going to show you the 00z NAM solution and why I think it is very close to becoming a snowstorm for the 2/3rds of eastern New England. 00z NAM shows a primary (Pacific Jet) shortwave over OK and the secondary (Arctic Jet) shortwave over ND. This is at hour 48. Image one is the 48 hour mark at H5. See how the shortwaves are diving southeastward into the long wave trough with H5 low centered over Northern Ontario, Canada province. The second image is the 72 hour H5 depiction on the 00z NAM tonight. Primary shortwave over NYS and the second shortwave is over KY. If these two phase or are able to merge then the arctic shortwave will be able to bring cold air over the Gulf Stream and allow an explosive cyclogenesis to occur. However I give this a mere .5% chance at happening. However I give a merge or phase about 30% chance at happening. Simply put these two images show the evolution of the long wave trough and a few stout shortwaves within the flow. If the second shortwave which is the cold air source can catch up to the primary Pacific jet shortwave then we get a snowstorm as the cold air phases with the moisture source. So I give a snowstorm about a 25% chance at happening if the cold air can catch up with the second low, but this is very small chance. A one in four chance is pretty low. However a few flakes in western SNE could happen while ME and New Brunswick, Canada sees another full fledged snowstorm while Nova Scotia is in another rainstorm. We should see what the next 48 hours bring, I will continue to update everyone with this system according to the latest model runs in this thread. So please stay tuned, there could be a few surprises.