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Found 42 results

  1. Since the pattern isn't offering much hope and it is likely the 2nd consecutive failed winter for the Champlain and Hudson Valleys and Southern New England has been skunked, it is time to regretfully pull the trigger on this thread.
  2. Since meteorological winter is just over three months away, it's probably about time to start a thread for winter predictions. It looks like we will be in a weak la nina. I've heard the PDO is returning closer to normal. I'm originally from the SE, do the AO and NAO have much effect on the climate of the lower Midwest?
  3. Last year's winter discussion thread was started July 28, so it's past time for this winter's thread to start. Here's what Accuweather said from a month ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249 Here are the NWS CPC forecast maps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Currently there is a 55-60% chance of la nina this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've heard the PDO might return to a more neutral or cool phase and don't know much about the potential for Atlantic blocking this winter. Any ideas?
  4. Let's start a new Pittsburgh thread for Winter 2016-2017. If anyone posted recently about the early winter why don't we put them in here going forward.
  5. All the others have their threads, so we're late to the game. Will this be a Nina winter as advertised, and if so, what intensity? If we can achieve weak Nina, it can mean good times ahead for the Valley region. Some of our most epic winters have came during that pattern, including the legendary 1984-85 winter that crushed the entire Mid-South/Tennessee Valley with heavy snows and record shattering cold. As always, many factors go into making a winter though, as we saw in 2011-2012 when the weak Nina mattered not at all and the winter was hardly a winter at all. Looking at some of the analog years, even including the bad winters, almost all areas West of the Apps are below normal in the temps department during weak Nina years. Strong Ninas flip the script however and we are often very warm during intense Nina years. I will take a further look at some of the analogs and at real data across the Valley during these years later on.
  6. 12z NAM rolling into the station, not much use at this stage however, but fun to look at

  7. The BOS office was the one putting out the forecasts but the other 3 had a lot of tasks like upper air, radar, and full time observations. Eventually they all consolidated to Taunton except for the balloon launches still in CHH. A random fact about the Boston office was that they issued hurricane and tropical storm headlines for the region in the 1950s and 1960s before NHC took over.
  8. Since it is pretty much going to be among the most horrendous winters ever in VT, WNE through the Hudson Valley of NY (with all of the big tickets missing), we might as well start looking forward to next winter. It will be a long wait for redemption but it has to be better than this go around and is something to look forward to. Only 296 days until the start of the next meteorological winter as of this post.
  9. Gains today. yesterday vs today. In any case-we're close enough.
  10. ...I'm just throwing this out there to see if anyone wants to get the winter of our discontent out of their system, throw back a few drinks and look ahead to record breaking drought conditions on the horizon. How about April 16, or May 14 in Worcester? (trying to dodge school vacations and mother's day)
  11. All continues to be quiet on the western front.....as expected so far...Good luck to everyone this winter!
  12. We cant have a Spring thread with out Phil's official prediction: The Prognosticator of Prognosticators, Punxsutawney Phil, will once again appear at sunrise on February 2 at Gobbler's Knob in the Pennsylvania Wilds to make his annual prediction on the 130th anniversary of Groundhog Day - So my question to you... WILL he or won't he?
  13. What would your ideal climate look like? Imagine you could have it right where you are. This is the place to construct a get away from the disappointments of model failure, Great Lakes Cutters, and all that other stuff. Attached is fantasy suite year 20XX for ORH. What's yours Expect we may be distracted by the imminent/possible/hoped for 1/22-24 snowstorm 00FantasyYearInitialConstruct-1 (Autosaved).pdf
  14. I have written a piece on what I currently see occurring with the weather patterns and how they will transition into winter. The forecast needs some slight tweaks here and there, but overall I tried to keep it as simple as I could so that people could understand it. http://weather.st/blog/winter-of-2015-2016-whats-the-verdict/ Now I realize there are quite a few people out there who will scream and throw eggs in my general direction for even putting this up, but be rest assured it is not a panic cry, or a hype job. And for those who are going to ask, "Where did you get this data from?" I took the time to mention in the article where the sources were coming from, and that analogs plus climatology had quite a bit to do with formation of the projection, not to mention trends over the past few years in storm tracks. Thanks! Please post your own forecasts as well here, I would love to see them!
  15. Meteorological winter is two days away, and thus a new winter thread for Indiana. Everyone is welcome to post anything regarding winter in Indiana. I of course will fill this thread with an annoying amount of stats. I'm also going to throw out a winter guess for Indiana, hopefully by tomorrow at the latest. As for what I'm currently thinking...it may or may not be pretty. But, I have no real skill at long range forecasting. Anyways, we begin by taking a look back at last winter. DJF temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stats for EVV, FWA, IND, and SBN below. Departures based off averages of the prior 30 years (1983-84 to 2012-13).
  16. Hi everybody I’m new here. I live in The Netherlands, nearby Amsterdam. I’m a biologist, but I’ve always been interested in the weather and in climate change. I’ve made nice overviews (at least, I hope so) of the temperatures in the US, based on data of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. Please click here for a PDF of one of the stations. There is a Fahrenheit version and a Celsius version. Therefore, all the data are double available. At the bottom of the PDF page you can see the highest and the lowest minimum and maximum temperature for each month, and the day and the year on witch this temperature was reached. It shows the history of the temperatures in 80 places in the US since 1976. The background colors show the daily mean temperature (Tmax + Tmin)/2; good enough for this purpose. Also the presence of a snow cover and the snow depth are shown. The monthly averages are also taken from the National Climatic Data Center. Based on that, I calculated the average annual temperature, and the 30-year average temperature. The data from the Data Center are given in Celsius. I converted it to Fahrenheit but maybe this can give small differences with official published values. Why this? Well, I started to do this with de Dutch data, then I took the German data and then the European data. And the data from the U.S. are easy to access, so… O.K., you can say I spend too much time doing this, but it’s kind of interesting. From a European point of view, the American data are interesting because we hear a lot of stories of very cold winters in the US, while here in this part of Europe we didn’t have a winter at all; nor did we have last year. With the 30-year average I want to show climate change (in fact not necessarily that; when there is no change, I want to show that as well) but I do realize that there can be all kind of bias in the data. In some stations in the US you can see a significant increase of the 30-year average, while on some other places there is not much of a change. I’ve been looking for official published normals of the main stations in the US. I only found these data of the period 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. More about that later.
  17. Total 2014-15 snowfall amounts with normals and departures for NWS eastern region Decided to start my first topic rather than put this in banter. I believe that this will make a good conversation thread by itself!
  18. Models are getting to be pretty insistent on an Apps runner happening the first week of March, the 00z GFS just levels the western 2/3rd of Tennessee with heavy snow and really buries Nashville. This has been showing up quite a few runs in a row now on both the GFS and GEM. The GEM looks like it has an icy solution on it's current run. GFS snowfall on top. GEM precip/radar on bottom.
  19. December is about to begin. Let's see how all of this verifies.... CFS2 for next six months...December has progressively been warmer on the CFS2 while the trend for January is cooler. In other words, as the model updates it seems December is getting warmer on the CFS2 and January is cooling off. Here is the NAO outlook. Not great. Here is the PNA outlook. Would seem to hint at a developing western ridge, eastern trough towards mid-December. That rarely works out for us in the TN Valley, but certainly did last January. Here is the AO outlook. Would appear some cold will be in North America for troughs to draw from when plunging southward. Here is the Nov 24 ENSO summary from CPC. Here is the probability of an El Nino from the aformentioned report. Looks like CPC is leaning towards a Nino. Could it be that our winter is weighted towards mid-late winter? That would correspond with the developing Nino. Is it possible the atmosphere will lag in response and respond during the mid-late winter time frame? Here is the multi-model(correct term?) prediction for the ENSO this winter. This index certainly points to a cold snowy, winter in the East. A weak Nino is perfect. Will this index be the "golden ticket" or the source of grumbling? Time will tell. Here is the CFS2 prediction for the ENSO this winter. This is where my concern is rooted, but it is an outlier. However, even as an outlier, the mid-range models do lend some support to it or I would throw it out. CPC felt the need to include it in their update. That said, it can be a very squirrelly model. In this image, the CFS2 seems to hint at why it is warmer. It has a stronger Nino in place. Summary: Well, this will give us a baseline to work from as the winter progress. It might also help to determine over time what drives sensible weather. I should also add that November has been incredibly cold. October and September were not. October was slightly above normal and September much above at KTRI. In general, Fall climo will be cooler than normal due to an anomalous November. A weak El Nino in the right place in the Pacific basin could mean the TN Valley is in business. We will see what that impact is. Is the CFS2 on to something or is it off on its own? Will the warmish Euro weeklies be correct as they almost always are? Many Nino winters have been spectacular here in the valley, some have not. As stated earlier, I think that the temps for Dec-Feb will be slightly above. Snow near normal for the season - which I count as first snow to the last snow regardless of the month.
  20. Time for obs/nowcast.
  21. Just going to dump a bunch of winter statistics about Indiana in this thread. First up, snowiest starts to a season for Indianapolis. 2013 ranks as the 14th best start on record for all years/seasons through December 16 (1884-present). All years that had at least 6.0" total snowfall, through December 16. 1977....16.3" 1989....14.0" 1932....12.5" 1899....11.4" 2005....11.2" 1966....10.7" 2010....10.7" 1996....10.6" 2007....10.5" 1917....9.5" 1898....9.3" 1942....9.1" 1950....9.0" 2013....8.9" 1884....8.1" 1914....7.5" 2000....7.1" 1886....6.8" 1951....6.7" 1967....6.7" 1974....6.5"
  22. Individual storm/month/season threads for the entertaining 2013-14 cold/winter season. Storm Threads October 20-26, 2013 Lake Effect and Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41455-early-season-lake-effect-and-clippers/ November 11-12, 2013 Cold Front/Lake Effect Snow-Rain http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41649-november-11-12-cold-frontlake-effect-rainsnow/ November 16-18, 2013 Storm General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41691-november-16th-18th-storm-general-discussionobs/ November 17, 2013 Major Severe Weather Outbreak - Main Forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41679-major-severe-weather-outbreak-november-17/ November 17, 2013 Tornadoes - A Fall Outbreak For The Ages http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41779-november-17-2013-tornadoes-a-fall-outbreak-for-the-ages/ November 26-27, 2013 Snow Event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41783-november-26-27-2013-snow-event/ December 2-5, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41854-december-2-5th-winter-storm/ December 5-6, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41835-december-5-6-2013-winter-storm/ December 8-9, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41870-december-8-9th-winter-storm/ December 10-12, 2013 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41922-december-10-12th-clippers/ December 13-14, 2013 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41926-december-13-14th-winter-storm/ December 13-14, 2013 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41999-december-13-14th-winter-storm-part-2/ December 16-17, 2013 GL Clipper http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42008-december-16th-17th-gl-clipper/ December 19-20, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42019-december-19-20th-winter-storm/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42001-pre-christmas-winter-storm-potential/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42040-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-2/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42059-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-3/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part IV http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42081-december-21-23rd-winter-storm-part-4/ December 21-22, 2013 Heavy Rain/Flooding/Severe http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42061-december-21-22-heavy-rainfloodingsevere-threat/ December 24-30, 2013 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42083-december-24-30th-clippers/ December 31-January 2, 2014 Hybrid Frisbee Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42169-hybrid-frisbee-storm-december-31-january-2/ December 31-January 2, 2014 Hybrid Frisbee Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42213-december-31-january-2-hybrid-frisbee-storm-part-2/ December 31-January 2, 2014 Hybrid Frisbee Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42243-december-31-january-2-hybrid-frisbee-storm-part-3/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42202-january-3-6th-winter-storm/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42264-january-3-6th-winter-storm-part-2/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42280-january-4-6th-winter-storm-part-3/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part IV http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42296-january-4th-6th-major-winter-storm-part-4/ Early January 2014 Major/Potential Cold http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42178-early-january-majorpotential-record-cold/ January 8-10, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42261-january-8-10-storm-potential/ January 10-12, 2014 Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42314-jan-10-12th-snowsleetfreezing-rainrain-event/ January 13-21, 2014 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42362-january-13-21st-clippershybrids/ January 20-?, 2014 Cold Snap http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42450-january-20-cold-snap/ January 22-27, 2014 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42486-january-22-27th-clippershybrids/ January 30-February 2, 2014 Wave Train - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42577-january-30-february-2nd-wave-train/ January 30-February 2, 2014 Wave Train - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42650-january-30-february-3rd-wave-train-part-2/ February 4-5, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42599-february-4-5th-winter-storm/ February 4-5, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42680-february-4-5th-winter-storm-part-2/ February 4-5, 2014 Winter Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42719-february-4-5th-winter-storm-part-3/ February 8-10, 2014 Snow Event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42657-february-8-10-snow-event/ February 11-19, 2014 Clippers/Hybrids http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42765-february-11-19th-clippershybrids/ February 20, 2014 Severe Weather http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42919-february-20-severe-weather-threat/ February 20-22, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42902-february-20-22-winter-weather-threat/ February 20-21, 2014 Heavy Rain/Flooding/Wind Event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42868-february-20-21-heavy-rainfloodinghigh-wind-threat/ February 22-27, 2014 Clippers/Hybrids http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42984-february-22-27th-clippershybrids/ February 28-March 3, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43013-february-28-march-3rd-winter-storm/ February 28-March 3, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43071-february-28-march-3rd-winter-storm-part-2/ March 4-10, 2014 Clippers/Hybrids http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43075-march-4-10th-clippershybrids/ March 11-12, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43126-march-11-12th-winter-storm/ March 11-12, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43176-march-11-12th-winter-storm-part-2/ March 15-17, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43175-march-15-17-winter-storm/ March 18-19, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43193-march-18-19-potential-winter-storm/ March 20-22, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43227-march-20-22-winter-storm/ March 24-25, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43278-this-clipper-ends-it-324-325/ March 28-29, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43309-march-28-29-snow-potential/ April 3-4, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43376-major-winter-storm-to-impact-mnwi-april-3rd-and-4th/ April 13-15, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43422-april-13-15-snow-threat/ Monthly/season threads Winter 2013-14 Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40808-winter-2013-14-discussion/[/url] Winter 2013-14 Medium/Long Range Discussion - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41492-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion/[/url] Winter 2013-14 Medium/Long Range Discussion - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42324-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion-part-2/[/url] Winter 2013-14 Medium/Long Range Discussion - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42943-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion-part-3/[/url] October 2013 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41259-october-2013-general-discussion/[/url] November 2013 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41522-november-2013-general-discussion/[/url] December 2013 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41807-december-2013-general-discussion/[/url] January 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42122-january-2014-general-discussion/ February 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42604-february-2014-general-discussion/ March 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43006-march-2014-general-discussion/ April 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43341-april-2014-general-discussion/
  23. Simple, vote... Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) which was developed by NOAA's NCDC as an evolution to K & U's NESIS. This pole is for the SE Region and I will quote the full text from the site below, as well as the pdf behind it. For brownie points, reply with a value, winner wins nothing, except for a major winter storm. I am going with 13.25 - Crippling, index does not take into account ZR which could be catastrophic from Augusta to Columbia to Florence (all major pops). Questions in how much does the 85 corridor from ATL - GSP - CLT - GSO - RIC get, please note the NCDC SE region includes VA. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/snow-and-ice/rsi/regional-snowfall-impact-scale-27th-iips-v3a.pdf
  24. Keep the discussion on topic and let the model madness continue here
  25. Will the models win out and the snow drought ends, or will DCA hold onto its record of disappointing snow lovers?