fountainguy97

You have to like our position only a few weeks out from serious winter weather across the country. CP Niño shaping up which traditionally is the best ENSO pattern for us with the highest chance of below normal temps in the east with positive precip anomalies. CP Nino is also best for storm track (see the bottom set of graphics in the image below. This pic is for January-March. This ENSO is on top of low solar which will increase the chance of blocking. I read through some research on Mid Atlantic board that found blocking chances are 4x higher in low solar than other years. The NAO is showing signs of dropping into negative territory by the end of November for the first time in months! The stars certainly are aligning about as good as you can hope for for winter in the east. Its almost time to start looking at actual pattern trends as we get into late October! 1. Niño is establishing Itself 2. Hint of -NAO soon? 3. Some increased blocking this October is leading Toward some very early east coast systems Get ready boys. Winter looks fun.

Interesting. Wonder if this style of wind leads to more damage? Maybe sudden surges close to 60? Seems very violent for trees.

So basically an extended severe storm?

Winds just above the surface (1,000-2,000ft) are picking Up extremely fast north of CLT.

Interesting wind map from CLT. You can see what appears to be our intense band starting. That's 45-50+mph winds over Statesville only 800-1200 ft up

Its your kids. Never too cautious there.

Except in this case they are. That's exactly what HRRR shows. 850mb winds mixing ALL the way to the surface at near 90-100% effectiveness. Hence why its required to watch the 850mb winds.

You can watch it on radar too. Seeing some 55mph on radar in that area. Slowly building just like HRRR. The rapid explosion of winds happens between 11-1pm for areas west of CLT. We will see if that verifies

the question is how high do the gusts go? I am highly suspicious of 80mph gusts somewhere. But I guess from a theoretical standpoint if we see 95-100% of the winds mix down its not out of the question...

Check out this one.

gusts yes

Seems likely. As the storm opens up and starts going extra tropical this filter dry air into the lower atmosphere. Allowing for what the HRRR shows. The question is how efficient will it be at pulling those upper winds to the surface?

here is the initial explosion of winds. This has to be over done right?? Here are the peak frames:

Guys this HRRR run is INSANE. winds 85+ WEST of Charlotte. and 5pm

It is the transition from tropical to extra-tropical that brings those 850's down. In certain cases it can be near 100% effective in bringing down those winds. 10m wind maps are the sustained speeds. This setup will not bring high sustained speeds. Rather it will bring very sudden and high gusts. So if HRRR is right some areas will be sustained 30-40mph winds but gusts 70-80mph. This is likely overdone.