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About fountainguy97

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    Erwin, TN: 1950ft

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  1. Hope this look holds! Of course it’s the LONG range NAM and loves to over amp.
  2. Hey all. Interesting storm. Tons of small variables can really enhance or suppress our backside moisture. Hoping to squeeze out an inch or two here! Waiting to see what high res models show over the next day. Very fascinating storm evolution. 3km has a legit line of broken cells and then snow a few hrs later.. going to be a wild few days.
  3. Here are the analog Temps! Very similar to Carver's thoughts above! The Precip is dry BUT its a dry December, wet January, dry February. Here are the 3 months combined. Here is the wet January Anyway, I thought I'd just throw these out here I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Not so much because of a signal for massive cold but more of the chance we have to buck the recent winter patterns we have been stuck in. A weak nina or cool neutral can actually end up very favorable for alot of areas if we have the right setup elsewhere on the globe. PNA is also bucking its recent pattern of - in winter and + in summer (the last THREE winters have averaged a -PNA in DJF then prolonged + in summer). Currently we have seen a nice -PNA this summer. hopefully with some luck that can switch into the fall toward a +PNA through winter.
  4. Very interestingly I just pulled my first batch of analogs for the winter and low and behold they fall right in line with you thoughts outlined above. I just looking for similar ENSO progressions and pulled these years. I omitted a few that had strong ninos/ninas but left a few that actually hovered neutral but dipped back into Nino. Analogs: 92-93, 95-96, 03-04, 05-06, 10-11, 12-13 Purple zones are similar to 2020. Brown designates ENSO which mostly correspond to the way 2020 is evolving (some lag by a few months) Red is a zone that stands apart of the 2020 map. The older maps are more coarse so who knows how similar they truly are. Anyway, in general these years all share some very similar global SST patterns. I'm just throwing these in here. This is how those analogs evolved vs how we are evolving so far. PDO Analog Comparison QBO analog Comparison PNA Analog Comparison Hurricane Activity Comparison I found this extremely interesting. 5 of the 6 analogs were hyperactivte cane seasons. While things are not set in stone it is pretty likely that this year comes out very active as well. Analog US temps/precip in next post
  5. Got absolutely blasted earlier today. 40dbz on radar. by far the most intense snow squall I’ve ever seen. Was a mix of snow/graupel. Near white out for a few minutes! Definitely a top 1 snow event for me today. enjoy!
  6. Wow dumping here under pretty light returns. Was that common for you guys too?
  7. Finally. After hours of dry slot. good snow in Unicoi, TN! Let’s see what we can end up with
  8. Cold rain here in Unicoi county. COngrats on all seeing snow! Honestly NAM and HRRR have both done poorly with QPF and TEMPS. Watch this loop on HRRR. Temps and precip rates have trended colder and heavier up until hour 1. This has been the case every. single. run today and I fully expect it to continue into the evening and Eastern TN.
  9. 35. All snow. Normal sized flakes. Already sticking on deck.
  10. Just waiting on the surface temps here. Radar and soundings show just the shallow warm nose left here. temp dropping pretty quickly down to 41 now!
  11. No way! This is my dad's hometown so I have a lot of family here. Grew up coming here for Christmas. I was here for the December 2010 storm when well over a foot fell! I was sold on weather after that. Yeah Unicoi County is an amazing place for weather. I need to find the best mountain side somewhere around Unicoi/Erwin for snow and buy a house there hahaha Very excited about my first winter in the mountains! And learning an entirely new weather climate.
  12. I moved to Erwin, TN back in June! Chasing those first flurries across TN. Its the 3km NAM so probably not going to happen but there is some support from EURO and GFS at least for some mountain changeover. Leaf change in full force here in Eastern TN.
  13. Extreme SE Wake. Nam seems to be doing well here. had 1-2 hrs mixed bag. Rain ever since. currently abt 60/40 rain sleet. Gutters are running nicely. Deck melting. Be careful abt trusting hrrr. NAM verifying here atleast for now.
  14. I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error.