fountainguy97

Extreme SE Wake. Nam seems to be doing well here. had 1-2 hrs mixed bag. Rain ever since. currently abt 60/40 rain sleet. Gutters are running nicely. Deck melting. Be careful abt trusting hrrr. NAM verifying here atleast for now.

I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error.

Nice trend for increased CAD. Pretty large trend to be so close.

There I fixed your post. What a sad debate. You would certainly fail in a debate class. Keep up the wonderful and informative posts.

Here it is. Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

I’m closely watching the 12-14th timeframe. Fv3-gfs has a suppressed storm with coastal NC getting a fringe snow event. Good setup with good cold on the backside. Surprisingly cold for November. If this his threat is still here inside 180hrs this could be a legit threat.

Fv3 looking wintry in the long range. I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.

Posted this in the winter contest by mistake. Here is our winter forecast from Carolina Weather! Check it out! It is nothing groundbreaking. https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast

Here is our winter forecast from Carolina-weather! nothing new really. https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast

You have to like our position only a few weeks out from serious winter weather across the country. CP Niño shaping up which traditionally is the best ENSO pattern for us with the highest chance of below normal temps in the east with positive precip anomalies. CP Nino is also best for storm track (see the bottom set of graphics in the image below. This pic is for January-March. This ENSO is on top of low solar which will increase the chance of blocking. I read through some research on Mid Atlantic board that found blocking chances are 4x higher in low solar than other years. The NAO is showing signs of dropping into negative territory by the end of November for the first time in months! The stars certainly are aligning about as good as you can hope for for winter in the east. Its almost time to start looking at actual pattern trends as we get into late October! 1. Niño is establishing Itself 2. Hint of -NAO soon? 3. Some increased blocking this October is leading Toward some very early east coast systems Get ready boys. Winter looks fun.

Interesting. Wonder if this style of wind leads to more damage? Maybe sudden surges close to 60? Seems very violent for trees.

So basically an extended severe storm?

Winds just above the surface (1,000-2,000ft) are picking Up extremely fast north of CLT.

Interesting wind map from CLT. You can see what appears to be our intense band starting. That's 45-50+mph winds over Statesville only 800-1200 ft up

Its your kids. Never too cautious there.