fountainguy97
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About fountainguy97
- Birthday 06/14/1997
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Think our chances of cashing in on the bomb are down toward zero at this point. We need a 250mile+ shift west with the timing of negative tilt to even be in the game. And even then not sure the precip shield gets into TN. So we can kiss that solution goodbye. E TN could still get some overrunning front side and NW flow on the backside from this but even then, looks to end up on the lighter 2-4inch side of things
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Honestly, I have not been impressed with the EURO at all this winter. It has rarely if ever really led the way or won a battle vs other models. Its GFS/GEFS/RGEM/HRRR for me until proven otherwise. I don't really favor the GFS 12z run of stringing it out as an extremely likely solution. 12GEFS members most of them but a few are consolidated storms. Just depends on track for where the snow ends up. I think we see that consolidated look. Just not sure where at yet.
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I see a lot of left leaning members here. And several extreme right. Won't be surprised to see this tuck in right along the NC coast.
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I'm seeing more consolidated members on 12 GEFS out to hr 102. Only a hand full of strung out solutions now. EDIT: Hr 108 the PNA continues to pump. Leading to a steeper trough. Should have more amped memebrs this time. EDIT 2: East TN is going to love this run of GEFS and its trend.
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06z gfs honestly looks great for the East Coast. Someone is going to get buried this weekend. Gfs is ticking for a quicker phase. A couple more ticks and it gets fun for a lot of the South. With little blocking any amping is going to pull this north. E TN is on storm watch for this weekend. notice a lot of GOM members now.
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Here it is.
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I am pretty sure the Bulls Gap returns were not convection but an animal. I've noticed the classic "ring" around this time in that exact area typical of insects/birds. (Another benefit of tier 2 RadarScope. Archive and my own custom color tables) The CC also indicates extreme differences in size of objects. Although this forum isn't letting me upload it.
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I won't be shocked to continue to see light precip over Eastern TN through the day. Especially with this look in the mid levels. As the storm progresses we may actually get an hour or two of semi-decent returns over the eastern counties bordering NC as the storm begins to crank. This was so close to a much larger event if that shortwave would tilt negative.
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Another dusting tonight. Brings my year up to 11.6". Exactly tying my snow through January of last winter so far. My Erwin TN winter archive is now up to 3 winters! data is sparse over here so I have to do it myself. Lol
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12z suite so far confirming my suspicion that this is an "east of mountains" event. I dont think these setups really push west of the mountains much at all unless we get some real phasing. Expect EURO to hop in line we the rest at 12z. Its 6z was already heading that way! Being from Central and Eastern NC I know they need a score!
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for sure. Here was our last event 84hrs out on GFS. the precip shield and low ended up abt 100 miles south from this run. 100miles NW certainly puts the valley in the game if it happens.
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Feel like this is a Carolina special. We may get enough ticks to get E TN in some light snow but I think we are locking in here. I do think it'll be easier to get more phasing than less. So NW ticks probably will be more likely to happen than suppression. IF any trends occur. This one just feels like a Carolina Crusher
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Still stacking up quickly here. Pleasantly surprised. Over 5" now
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24 and visibility below a quarter mile.
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Wow rates are very heavy right now. If only this would last all night haha
