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ncforecaster89

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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. Indeed! The following frame made it even more interesting. Right now, that's an outlier at 10 days. Something to watch, but I don't trust any modeled solution past 120 hours. Long way to go, obviously.
  2. Been following 99L's progress for the past 7+ days. Interestingly, the CMC has been by far the most consistent with regards to both track and intensity during that time. It has been unwavering in its insistence on development and trajectory along the general forecast track. GFS has been pretty bad during that time. Edit: Ironically, the CMC (with its 00z run) suddenly will be way off on intensity, if the NHC forecast vetifies; as I suspect it Will.
  3. Seasonal: 16/8/3 Preseason 1/0/0 June 1/0/0 July 2/1/0 August 4/2/1 September 5/4/1 October 2/1/1 Nov-Dec 1/0/0
  4. Hi OceanStWx! Was just looking through the PNS' attempting to determine the calendar snowfall for April 1 at the Portland Jetport. It appears it was somewhere close to 9.1" or thereabouts. If so, and if the data found near the bottom of this link is accurate...that total would qualify as a top 3 April snow for Portland. Congrats, again! https://snowfall.weatherdb.com/l/20888/Portland-Maine
  5. Hi wxsniss! I meant to send you the attached link last night, but my phone crashed, and I subsequently did the same. As you noted, this event had the potential to be a top five April snowstorm (as the link clearly shows). 6" would have been a T5 for an April calendar day snowfall...for Boston. 11" top three! Although I wanted one last significant snow storm chase before this season concludes, my concerns over the thermals in the mid-levels discouraged me from pulling the trigger. Congrats on those (such as Eyewall 'great pics btw', Dentrite, OceanStWx, SJones, PF, and all the others) who experienced a memorable April snowstorm! I may not have been there in person, but I was most certainly in spirit, rooting for everyone in this subforum to do well. And, that will always be the case! http://snowfall.weatherdb.com/l/2690/Boston-Massachusetts
  6. Hi everyone! As someone that has been chasing hurricanes since as early as 1996 (much more regularly from 2004 onward) and blizzards since 2014, I'm somewhat reluctant to offer my opinion on this tragic incident...as some will no doubt misconstrue my motives. That said, so much has changed since the mid-90's for better and worse. The expanse of the internet, along with the inception of social media, has opened the door to many looking for a relative amount of fame and profit, as much as simply for the joy and exhilaration derived from capturing/witnessing Earth's most spectacular atmospheric phenomena. As a result, the competition involved in getting the best footage available, and out to the networks as quickly as possible, is only increasing the other inherent dangers/risks associated with this profession/hobby! Like many others chasers, I too have been guilty of making some very poor choices in the heat of the chase, but only by endangering myself, in the process; although, even those actions potentially put the lives of first responders in jeopardy. It's so terribly sad three lives were taken so needlessly, and nothing is worth such a heavy price to pay (especially the innocent one/ones involved). One can only hope all of us chasers can learn to be more responsible and thoughtful of how our respective actions affect others. More importantly, my thoughts and most heartfelt prayers go out to all the friends and family of these three souls!
  7. Lol...Hi, 40/70! Just dropping by to catch up on you guys. I genuinely enjoy reading the discussions that take place in this subforum, as well as the comrodary shared amongst all of you. That aside, I'd be somewhat disingenuous if I didn't admit to being intrigued by the latest model runs...albiet, tempered by the mixing concerns associated with this setup. I don't typically chase winter storms without signigicant blizzard potential (due to the logistics and expense required), but I might be tempted to chase a large snowfall event, given the time of year. Regardless, I simply enjoy keeping up with you guys! And, I'm always rooting for you guys to do well, whether I'm there to witness it first-hand, or not.
  8. Thanks ORH_wxman for this extremely thoughtful post! As shared in the previous post, there are many "silver linings" that I can take from this experience, and enjoyed it, nonetheless. Another example being that I just found confirmation of the TSPL I thought I had witnessed between Newark, NJ and NYC (METAR lists it for both EWR & LGA), during the torrents of pounding sleet I described and you referenced. Since I didn't see a flash and the rumble wasn't as distinguishable as all the occurrences of TSSN I observed during the February blizzard, I wasn't quite sure it had actually taken place. I will attach a screen shot of the general time of its occurence. Congrats on verifying blizzard conditions and experiencing one of ORH's largest March snowstorms! I'm rooting hard for you and all others in this subforum (my personal favorite) to get an overachieving snowfall before this BN cold period comes to an end.
  9. Thanks for the very kind words, Tamarack! Even though it wasn't the truly epic event I had hoped to document (for the areas I was able to get to) and didn't capture much video or take any pics, it was still worth it to enjoy one last significant storm event before the season concludes. It's one thing to be disappointed that one's initial hopes and expectations weren't necessarily realized, and quite another to fail to appreciate the positives derived from the experience. In this case, I can take further solace in that both BDL (#1) and ALB (#6) each recorded one of their top 6 largest 24 hour March snowstorms; with it even registering as a tie for 8th largest one day snowstorm in ALB records. Looking back through the obs at the various stations in the areas I traversed at those particular time periods, they confirm my impression of the blizzard conditions I saw in parts of W CT and E NY...despite each station falling just short of the full 3 hours straight required to verify a blizzard. Both OXC and BDL are prime examples, which by definition, constitute "near blizzard conditions." Not to mention, all of these areas tallied more than 1' of snow; with some just S of Albany reporting 2'. These are the things I need to focus on rather than the disappointment derived by my greater expectations for this particular event. And, it's not all about me, as I'm genuinely excited for ALL of those in this subforum who did have their own expectations realized, and even greatly surpassed, in many cases! For most others, they still saw snow totals exceeding a foot and/or very impressive winds! Thanks again, Tamarack, for the very thoughtful post!
  10. CHASE RECOUNT: Hi everyone! Let me begin by congratulating EACH one of you who got to experience a very memorable storm; especially those in the areas that have suffered through a relative significant big storm drought. For me, this will be remembered as a "what could've been" event. Unlike the previous chase I undertook (back on February 8-9), on a moments notice, I had prepared well in advance for a prospective HECS event. I had cleared my work schedule for a full week, reserved a rental SUV, planned to arrive in the Stamford, CT area by Monday morning (24 hours ahead of the storm), etc. Unfortunately, I got a text late on Thursday night informing me that my mother's mother had passed away, and the funeral would take place late on Monday afternoon (of which my mom requested I be a pallbearer). As a result of these unexpected circumstances, I wasn't able to depart Wilmington, NC until after 830 pm Monday night. With the exceptionally late departure, my wife felt strongly I should skip this particular chase (even moreso after the fact; fun times!). Being that the models still suggested a HECS was still a legitimate possibility, I most certainly didn't want to take a chance to miss out on the most extreme probabilities! Albeit, there were also definite signs pointing to what actually occurred. Thus, I left Wilmington in torrential downpours that followed me up the coast to the Richmond, VA vicinity, where my trip was further plagued by heavy sleet up into the NYC area. Instead of a typical 10 hour drive, I didn't arrive in this general locality until around 10 am on Tuesday morning (13.5 hour trip). At this time, I was experiencing an incredible sleet storm! I faced a difficult choice, do I attempt a long drive to the SNE coastal areas for 60-80 mph winds and dramatic flooding somewhere between Hyannis, MA to Portland, ME, drive further N into the Binghamton, N.Y. area where the CCB appeared to be setting up, or maybe somewhere in between that could still verify blizzard conditions (like near Lawerence or Worcester, MA)? Before I made this critical decision, I became very sick with a bad stomach virus. So bad that I couldn't keep my head up...much less drive in that condition. A couple hours thereafter, I determinedly headed NE towards Lawerence when I was stopped abruptly by an @#%hole of a cop, who pulled me for driving 38 mph (as they had implemented a 35 mph speed limit on the Interstate). Holding me up an additional thirty costly minutes, literally, with a ticket of $95 and a summons to appear in court for "careless driving"...this, combined with the poor road conditions, ensured I wouldn't make it even to Worcester before the peak conditions had passed. Still miserably sick, extremely frustrated, and discouraged, I still wanted to salvage as much of the event as possible. Ultimately, I made it up to Albany N.Y. before heading back a little S to Coxsackie, N.Y. where I concluded the documentation of this major storm. Due to all the aforementioned, I didn't film much or took any pics until I got towards Albany, as I was battling the illness that was so debilitating. Nor did I post at all in the forum until now. The highlights of the event consisted of blizzard conditions observed in the general Waterbury, CT/Windsor Locks, CT area and points NW towards Albany, NY. Although I observed impressive snowfall rates, the heaviest sleet I've ever seen, and strong winds, the conditions I personally experienced fell short of the February 9th and 13th blizzard events, respectively. In summary, all of the aforestated circumstances combined to produce a blizzard of disappointment, rather than the HECS event I had hoped to document. That aside, I'm most thankful so many in this community got to experience a truly epic storm, themselves! There will be other MECS' in the future, and I look forward to witnessing and documenting each one when they materialize! Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't once again convey my deep appreciation to ALL of you who have offered advice, encouragement, and the like, as I undertook 5 different significant storm chase events (3 blizzards), from December 29, 2016 through March 16, 2017, in your region of the country! P.S. It's exceedingly likely I won't attempt another extreme storm chase until this upcoming hurricane season. If you like, live first-hand accounts and pics of past events I've covered, as well as all upcoming events...can be found on my Twitter account at tbrite89. Between now and hurricane season, I will be working on editing all of the big winter storm events I've documented dating back to March 26, 2014 in Chatham, MA. Time permitting, I hope to do the same for the 20+ hurricanes I've documented on film, as well, dating back to August 3, 2004.
  11. Chasing a line of +SN embedded in these bands along 35S. 25f in Lavallette, NJ.
  12. Snow squall dropping accumulating SN in Spring Lake Heights, NJ. 23f
  13. Getting a little appetizer before the main course (up in SNE on Tuesday)...currently here in Wilmington, NC! A dusting here is an equivalent to 12-15" up there, in frequency. Ha ha
  14. We are close. I'm on Navaho trail, right in front of the entrance to Masonboro Forest.
  15. Temp down to 34 from 47 two hours ago.