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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. Thought I’d share a blast from the past! Just found these old photos from the Christmas snowstorm of 1989:
  2. After getting stuck for an hour on a secondary road and off hwy 177 in Barnes Corners, we left the Tug and have made it to Adams Center. Measured 3.8” between 5:54 and 8:35pm (roughly 2.5 hours), there.
  3. Hi Dave and Buffalo! I’m up here with my wife and 20 month old baby girl building her first snowman (Olaf) and sledding on a hill. Was on our way back to my wife’s families house in Lancaster, Pa. when I saw the forecast and the radar. Decided to come into the Tug Hill to do the aforementioned.
  4. Just measured exactly 2” in the past hour (5:54 to 6:52 pm) here in Barnes Corners...along with gusty winds blowing it horizontally at times.
  5. Verify the same here on Shippen st in Lancaster, as well! Visiting my in-laws for Christmas, and is the first time our 20 month has ever seen snow. She loves it! As does her daddy. Lol
  6. It’s most definitely worse to be continually blasted by the inner eyewall of the quadrant with onshore winds (right side), than going directly through the center of the eye. The most powerful winds are in this sector of the eyewall and also comes “roaring” from the “opposite direction” (e.g. wind shift). The only difference being that there’s no break in between. For areas on the immediate coastline, not only do you have those extreme winds, but worse yet...the wind shift brings in a catastrophic storm surge! In short, given the choice of the two, it’s certainly most preferable to get into the eye!
  7. Hi Liberty! Unlike with hurricane Michael, whereby I experienced the absolute brunt of the Cat 5 conditions, I actually didn’t chase Iota. That said, a combination of all of the available data suggests Michael was slightly stronger than Iota at their respective peak intensities, but essentially the same. Fortunately, the absolute brunt of the Cat 5 winds, located within Iota’s inner eyewall, appear to have passed just to the N of the island of Providencia. Even so, the residents there were still battered by extreme high-end Cat 4 winds, as evidenced by the pictures taken in the aftermath. All that aside, I hope you’re doing well and have a great rest of the weekend!
  8. Thanks for pointing that out. I should’ve taken a few minutes to look at the video before sharing it, but I trusted it was real. Will never understand why people do such dishonest things. After viewing it, it’s obvious it’s a loop of the same footage being run repeatedly. That aside, James captured great video on that Typhoon you mentioned.
  9. Link just shared with me of "live" conditions in the eyewall from Nick Panico (he's not there, himself):
  10. Based on this data and the continued very deep pressure readings, I’d set the landfall intensity at 130 kt...if nothing else changes. Edit: I’d toss the SFMR data so close to shore due to shoaling in shallow waters.
  11. Three quick points: 1) There is a very tragic and deadly situation currently unfolding for our friends and fellow human beings down in NE Nicaragua & Honduras. 2) All the available data strongly suggests Iota has weakened to a Cat 4, but won’t make much difference in the overall effects in the area. The NHC will likely adjust the landfall intensity in postseason analysis. 3) There’s a reason I post on this forum and others without a need to claim my “red-tag” or any other formality to designate I am a degreed meteorologist and have worked in the field, professionally (to include a student-internship at the NHC during college). Specifically, I don’t consider myself, or any other, superior simply because of such credentials (even if likely more experienced). We should all just respect one another, regardless, and appreciate the simple fact tropical meteorology is a truly inexact science whereby we all can continue to learn as time goes forward!
  12. IMG_1279.mp4 The western eyewall of #HurricaneIota is moving into NE Nicaragua, currently, as a likely high-end Cat 4...bringing all the catastrophic effects mentioned previously. Worst of 15-20’ storm surge will come barreling onshore when the wind shifts to a direct onshore flow.
  13. The current structure and prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are suitable for a prospective 140 kt Cat 5 peak intensity...not necessarily when the eye itself actually crosses the coastline. I’ll be somewhat surprised if Iota doesn’t reach a peak of at least 130 kt (150 mph). With a possible EWRC and slightly cooler SSTs near the CA shoreline, I think the floor is 120 kt and the ceiling is 135 kt, for landfall.
  14. Although I’d be hesitant to forecast that peak intensity, I also wouldn’t be too surprised if Iota does actually rival the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the most intense November NATL basin hurricane on record (150 kt/915mb). The main impediment will be the prospect of an EWRC that prevents such an occurrence. The current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, its structure, and amount of time left over such high OHC...makes it a conceivable proposition. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Albeit, I’m hoping it comes ashore well below that strength when it barrels into the CA coastline! Edit: My best educated guess would be a peak at 135-140 kt. Additional edit (1:15 am (11/16): I just now noticed that the attached map above was for 850 mb winds and not the 10 m version I’m used to seeing (should’ve paid more attention, obviously). As such, I most definitely expect that intensity to be exceeded as noted in this post.