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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. 6/15/20 (edit): 20/10/5 Decided to add an additional named storm, to my initial forecast to differentiate it from the forecast of "thunderman." Still think 19/10/5 is most probable. 19/10/5 This forecast is derived from accounting for the two preseason TS' and adding them to the average of all "cool" Neutral to La Nina ENSO season figures of 17/9/4 (1995-2019). Added one additional MH due to my expectation of a more favorable MDR.
  2. UKMET continuing the wrong kind of trend, with the 00z guidance.
  3. Not to derail the thread, but I'd be remiss if I didn't commend you on that incredible accomplishment of making it six years of sobriety. I've seen many friends and family members struggle to overcome their addiction to alcohol. As a result, I have the greatest respect and appreciation for those, like yourself, who fight that good fight! Like you, I'm struggling to see how this will deliver significant impacts to SNE...outside, possibly the Cape - which is why I mentioned that storm.
  4. First and foremost, I'm so terribly sorry to hear about you having to endure the loss of your dad, Ray! Even on the Cape, it verified with far less snow totals than guidance was suggesting, right up to go time. It may be false hope, but at least the models are giving us a legitimate reason to hold onto that "hope"...just a little bit longer. I desperately miss being back up in this area, and find it hard to conceptualize that it may very well be three full years, at least, before there's another chase-worthy SNE winter storm. Will continue clinging to " hope" as long as it's still a reasonable and viable proposition!
  5. That GGEM/CMC run reminds me of the March 26, 2014 blizzard. Very similar track if I recall, correctly? Wasn't much impact outside the Cape in the 2014 storm...but there's more substantial effects for SE Massachusetts, on that particular run, verbatim. Edit: There's still time for a favorable outcome, but the 00z trends on the GFS certainly weren't an encouraging sign!
  6. I'm in total agreement, Josh! The data can legitimately be analyzed to suggest an intensity as high as 170 kt to as low as 145 kt...although it's highly likely the actual MSW was between those two extremes. It really comes down to the NHC's consensus on their interpretation of the SFMR measurements. If it were my call, I'd set the estimated MSW at 155 kt. The 700 mb FLWs (161 kt vs 164 kt) and minimum central pressures (910 mb vs 914 mb) were almost identical. Dorian's SFMR readings exceeded that of Irma's, while the satellite estimates were much higher with Irma. In the end, I anticipate the NHC will either retain the operational 160 kt estimate or reduce it slightly to 155 kt.
  7. Don't typically disagree with their reanalysis, but I felt the available data justified a 100 kt Cat 3 designation for Dora landfall in NEFL. Edit: Thought I'd share a few links of historic footage taken during and/or after some of the hurricanes from the latest reanalysis period.
  8. With the upcoming one year anniversary of landfall tomorrow, I was reviewing all the data related to its landfall strength. As a result, l think it suggests a 145 kt intensity is more applicable (not that it's a significant difference, in the scheme of things). Yes, I'm aware I may be a little OCD about such estimates. That said, here's my reasoning: Already noted the causes as to why it's highly likely that the BP had dropped at least another 2-3 mb from the current 919 mb estimate in HURDAT2. This would bump the wind-pressure relationships up to 145 kt. The radar analysis argues for 145 kt, by itself, as detailed in the NHC TCR. As stated in the TCR, it appears RECON missed sampling the peak winds, and had it done so, they'd been higher than the 152 kt at FL. Lastly, a blend of the FLWs and the SFMR (152 kt) would equate to a 145 kt intensity, as well. This is the current standard used the past 3 seasons with all the high-end Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes due to the probable high-bias of SFMR measurements at such extreme wind speeds.
  9. Thanks so much for sharing the link and summarization of the paper. If it occurs during my lifetime, I will most certainly be there to document it, as well!
  10. Agree on all accounts. Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years. Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!
  11. Lol. I know I can be too long-winded. Need to work on being more concise.
  12. If you're referring to me, as it appears you couldn't be farther from the truth. Then again, that seems to be a regular thing with you. One thing I'm certainly not is self-centered or an attention seeker...unlike many other chasers. If anything, I'm probably too empathic and truly care about others. But, what would you know about that? I'm not the one consistently posting such immature and rude comments.
  13. As far as wind damage is concerned, the small Island of Guanaja (offshore to the N of Honduras) were subjected to major hurricane-force winds for 72 hours and max winds near Cat 5 intensity. The center of Mitch stalled and meandered near the Island for three days while it was at its max intensity of 155 kt/180 mph MSW. As a result, virtually the entire mangrove forest and pine trees were destroyed on the island. Even a decade later, evidence of Mitch's wrath was still evident with countless trees debarked.
  14. Thanks for the objectivity. Greatly respect that. Although some may not realize or appreciate it, my own personal opinion isn't rooted in the fact I was the one who shot the footage at that location in MB. It's all about Michael's intensity and effects...not anything to do with me. It's not like I've been suggesting Dorian didn't produce Cat 5 conditions in Marsh Harbour. Josh's footage, MH's position in the eyewall, and the engineering evaluation by Steer all support Cat 5 conditions occurred at MH. Thanks again for taking the time to objectively review the video, and I hope you have a great rest of the day!