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About ncforecaster89

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. Thanks! I feel the same about the alarms, but that seems to be a more prevalent issue in these beach communities. To be completely forthright, I never know where I’m going to end up documenting the inner-core...given my desire to get into the eastern-most edge of the eye in hopes of getting stronger winds and some surge opposed to being in the absolute center of the eye (which I’ll drive into if surge isn’t an issue). As a result, it could be in a parking garage, filming outside against a sturdy building, or from within my car shooting through the drivers side window (which is the predominate way most of us chased in the 80’s and 90’s). At night, I’m even more likely to try to find a parking garage...out of concern with storm surge and decreased visibility.
  2. Finally found time to edit the footage I captured from the most intense portion of hurricane Sally’s NE eyewall, in Orange Beach, AL on 9/16/2020. Based on the extreme winds I observed right on the beachfront, it’s certainly probable that Sally may very well have attained a 100 kt Cat 3 intensity, as it was coming ashore.
  3. Have no idea, honestly. Since I don’t personally consider “chasing” any sort of sport or wouldn’t matter to me, either way. That’s not why I do it During each respective chase, I’m only focused on trying to do the best job I can do to simply gather data, document the event, and help those less fortunate for a few hours in the immediate aftermath. As far as Josh (Icylone) is concerned, I consider him a friend and always wish him the very best in all his chases. There’s way too much to do in these chases that there’s simply no time available to follow what any other chaser is doing...and I’m pretty sure it’s the same for him as well. That said, I’ll look forward to seeing his footage and read his superbly written chase reports in the very near future.
  4. My kestrel measured a lowest pressure of 966.4 mb in Orange Beach. Winds were certainly gusting to, and above, 100 knots in many areas in between Fort Morgan and Perdido Key. There were more than 8 palm trees snapped within 50 yards of my hotel.
  5. I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those.
  6. My personal opinion is we (any and all of us chasers) should absolutely be billed for any services required for our rescue if such a need were to arise. While residents are being ordered to evacuate these areas, we are intentionally doing the opposite. Simply put, we are each choosing willingly to put ourselves in harms way and are 100% responsible for our own actions. How anyone could rationalize we deserve any such preferential treatment is beyond me.
  7. Based on location, that 154 mph gust is impressive as the sensor was measuring offshore sustained winds. I am highly suspicious the actual gust was part of a strong meso vortex as numerous similar high gusts have occurred unofficially around the landfalling eyewall. One of the best observations is still the ship anemometer nearing 10-second wind averages in the 130s. At any rate, all these instruments will be inspected. Too bad we didn't have a sensor east of Cameron. At 33 feet/10 meters I’d find it believable, but I’m highly skeptical that there were gusts that high at an elevation of only 15 feet/4.5 meters. I do know there were indeed numerous meso-vortices within the inner that may be a factor, as you pointed out.
  8. Congrats on a very successful chase! Very well done!! I especially appreciate your mention of how the damage we document are the losses suffered by those who actually live there. While we go back to normalcy, they are left to struggle simply to get by from one day to the next. I came to this realization while documenting the horrific devastation left in the wake of Katrina. Since that time, I’ve personally made it a commitment to volunteer at least half the time (no less than 4 working hours) I spend documenting the damage to helping survivors with the cleanup. Btw, here’s a pic I took as I was driving through “Iowa” on my way home.
  9. Jim Leonard was an extremely thoughtful individual who truly wasn’t in it for the notoriety, but simply wanted to be in the storm. His footage from the eyewall of hurricane Allen way back in 1980 was the first time any chaser captured MH winds on film.
  10. There’s an audience it seems for each type of chaser personality that streams. I plan to begin live streaming in the near future. If and when I do, those who want to be entertained by “end of the world” narration aren’t going to be too interested, as I’m of the mindset that it’s all about the storm and not about me! Likely will just set up a cam and let it stream the action as I’m filming with another close by. I’m also not one who’s a big fan of countless selfie’s for the same reason. To each their own, as long as they aren’t hurting anyone, I guess!
  11. 6/15/20 (edit): 20/10/5 Decided to add an additional named storm, to my initial forecast to differentiate it from the forecast of "thunderman." Still think 19/10/5 is most probable. 19/10/5 This forecast is derived from accounting for the two preseason TS' and adding them to the average of all "cool" Neutral to La Nina ENSO season figures of 17/9/4 (1995-2019). Added one additional MH due to my expectation of a more favorable MDR.
  12. UKMET continuing the wrong kind of trend, with the 00z guidance.
  13. Not to derail the thread, but I'd be remiss if I didn't commend you on that incredible accomplishment of making it six years of sobriety. I've seen many friends and family members struggle to overcome their addiction to alcohol. As a result, I have the greatest respect and appreciation for those, like yourself, who fight that good fight! Like you, I'm struggling to see how this will deliver significant impacts to SNE...outside, possibly the Cape - which is why I mentioned that storm.
  14. First and foremost, I'm so terribly sorry to hear about you having to endure the loss of your dad, Ray! Even on the Cape, it verified with far less snow totals than guidance was suggesting, right up to go time. It may be false hope, but at least the models are giving us a legitimate reason to hold onto that "hope"...just a little bit longer. I desperately miss being back up in this area, and find it hard to conceptualize that it may very well be three full years, at least, before there's another chase-worthy SNE winter storm. Will continue clinging to " hope" as long as it's still a reasonable and viable proposition!
  15. That GGEM/CMC run reminds me of the March 26, 2014 blizzard. Very similar track if I recall, correctly? Wasn't much impact outside the Cape in the 2014 storm...but there's more substantial effects for SE Massachusetts, on that particular run, verbatim. Edit: There's still time for a favorable outcome, but the 00z trends on the GFS certainly weren't an encouraging sign!