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ncforecaster89

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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. Thanks ORH_wxman for this extremely thoughtful post! As shared in the previous post, there are many "silver linings" that I can take from this experience, and enjoyed it, nonetheless. Another example being that I just found confirmation of the TSPL I thought I had witnessed between Newark, NJ and NYC (METAR lists it for both EWR & LGA), during the torrents of pounding sleet I described and you referenced. Since I didn't see a flash and the rumble wasn't as distinguishable as all the occurrences of TSSN I observed during the February blizzard, I wasn't quite sure it had actually taken place. I will attach a screen shot of the general time of its occurence. Congrats on verifying blizzard conditions and experiencing one of ORH's largest March snowstorms! I'm rooting hard for you and all others in this subforum (my personal favorite) to get an overachieving snowfall before this BN cold period comes to an end.
  2. Thanks for the very kind words, Tamarack! Even though it wasn't the truly epic event I had hoped to document (for the areas I was able to get to) and didn't capture much video or take any pics, it was still worth it to enjoy one last significant storm event before the season concludes. It's one thing to be disappointed that one's initial hopes and expectations weren't necessarily realized, and quite another to fail to appreciate the positives derived from the experience. In this case, I can take further solace in that both BDL (#1) and ALB (#6) each recorded one of their top 6 largest 24 hour March snowstorms; with it even registering as a tie for 8th largest one day snowstorm in ALB records. Looking back through the obs at the various stations in the areas I traversed at those particular time periods, they confirm my impression of the blizzard conditions I saw in parts of W CT and E NY...despite each station falling just short of the full 3 hours straight required to verify a blizzard. Both OXC and BDL are prime examples, which by definition, constitute "near blizzard conditions." Not to mention, all of these areas tallied more than 1' of snow; with some just S of Albany reporting 2'. These are the things I need to focus on rather than the disappointment derived by my greater expectations for this particular event. And, it's not all about me, as I'm genuinely excited for ALL of those in this subforum who did have their own expectations realized, and even greatly surpassed, in many cases! For most others, they still saw snow totals exceeding a foot and/or very impressive winds! Thanks again, Tamarack, for the very thoughtful post!
  3. CHASE RECOUNT: Hi everyone! Let me begin by congratulating EACH one of you who got to experience a very memorable storm; especially those in the areas that have suffered through a relative significant big storm drought. For me, this will be remembered as a "what could've been" event. Unlike the previous chase I undertook (back on February 8-9), on a moments notice, I had prepared well in advance for a prospective HECS event. I had cleared my work schedule for a full week, reserved a rental SUV, planned to arrive in the Stamford, CT area by Monday morning (24 hours ahead of the storm), etc. Unfortunately, I got a text late on Thursday night informing me that my mother's mother had passed away, and the funeral would take place late on Monday afternoon (of which my mom requested I be a pallbearer). As a result of these unexpected circumstances, I wasn't able to depart Wilmington, NC until after 830 pm Monday night. With the exceptionally late departure, my wife felt strongly I should skip this particular chase (even moreso after the fact; fun times!). Being that the models still suggested a HECS was still a legitimate possibility, I most certainly didn't want to take a chance to miss out on the most extreme probabilities! Albeit, there were also definite signs pointing to what actually occurred. Thus, I left Wilmington in torrential downpours that followed me up the coast to the Richmond, VA vicinity, where my trip was further plagued by heavy sleet up into the NYC area. Instead of a typical 10 hour drive, I didn't arrive in this general locality until around 10 am on Tuesday morning (13.5 hour trip). At this time, I was experiencing an incredible sleet storm! I faced a difficult choice, do I attempt a long drive to the SNE coastal areas for 60-80 mph winds and dramatic flooding somewhere between Hyannis, MA to Portland, ME, drive further N into the Binghamton, N.Y. area where the CCB appeared to be setting up, or maybe somewhere in between that could still verify blizzard conditions (like near Lawerence or Worcester, MA)? Before I made this critical decision, I became very sick with a bad stomach virus. So bad that I couldn't keep my head up...much less drive in that condition. A couple hours thereafter, I determinedly headed NE towards Lawerence when I was stopped abruptly by an @#%hole of a cop, who pulled me for driving 38 mph (as they had implemented a 35 mph speed limit on the Interstate). Holding me up an additional thirty costly minutes, literally, with a ticket of $95 and a summons to appear in court for "careless driving"...this, combined with the poor road conditions, ensured I wouldn't make it even to Worcester before the peak conditions had passed. Still miserably sick, extremely frustrated, and discouraged, I still wanted to salvage as much of the event as possible. Ultimately, I made it up to Albany N.Y. before heading back a little S to Coxsackie, N.Y. where I concluded the documentation of this major storm. Due to all the aforementioned, I didn't film much or took any pics until I got towards Albany, as I was battling the illness that was so debilitating. Nor did I post at all in the forum until now. The highlights of the event consisted of blizzard conditions observed in the general Waterbury, CT/Windsor Locks, CT area and points NW towards Albany, NY. Although I observed impressive snowfall rates, the heaviest sleet I've ever seen, and strong winds, the conditions I personally experienced fell short of the February 9th and 13th blizzard events, respectively. In summary, all of the aforestated circumstances combined to produce a blizzard of disappointment, rather than the HECS event I had hoped to document. That aside, I'm most thankful so many in this community got to experience a truly epic storm, themselves! There will be other MECS' in the future, and I look forward to witnessing and documenting each one when they materialize! Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't once again convey my deep appreciation to ALL of you who have offered advice, encouragement, and the like, as I undertook 5 different significant storm chase events (3 blizzards), from December 29, 2016 through March 16, 2017, in your region of the country! P.S. It's exceedingly likely I won't attempt another extreme storm chase until this upcoming hurricane season. If you like, live first-hand accounts and pics of past events I've covered, as well as all upcoming events...can be found on my Twitter account at tbrite89. Between now and hurricane season, I will be working on editing all of the big winter storm events I've documented dating back to March 26, 2014 in Chatham, MA. Time permitting, I hope to do the same for the 20+ hurricanes I've documented on film, as well, dating back to August 3, 2004.
  4. Chasing a line of +SN embedded in these bands along 35S. 25f in Lavallette, NJ.
  5. Snow squall dropping accumulating SN in Spring Lake Heights, NJ. 23f
  6. Getting a little appetizer before the main course (up in SNE on Tuesday)...currently here in Wilmington, NC! A dusting here is an equivalent to 12-15" up there, in frequency. Ha ha
  7. We are close. I'm on Navaho trail, right in front of the entrance to Masonboro Forest.
  8. Temp down to 34 from 47 two hours ago.
  9. Sure is! Accumulating on cars and starting to stick on the grass, as well.
  10. Good morning everyone! Large flakes mixing in with rain here in the Masonboro area of Wilmington NC. Change over has been taking place in the past 15 minutes.
  11. Ginxy and Hoth...you guys are too much! Lol My joke about being a "cheapskate" aside, I stay so busy with work (own and operate my own business), family, and the like (as most of us)...that I typically miss the benefits the paid sites provide. By the time I look over the data, myself, the freebies have everything I need for analysis. Not to mention, so many of you guys do an outstanding job of sharing the pertinent maps from the paid sites, which is a huge benefit to so many of us here. I will make an asserted effort to do my part, next season, by investing in the pay sites, and sharing the pertinent information and respective maps, as well. Tamarack, I had already made tentative arrangements to chase this prospective storm. These plans included departing Wilmington NC Sunday evening, with the anticipation of arriving by noon on Monday. Unfortunately, my grandmother (Mom's mother and her best friend) passed away last night. Today, my mother asked me to be one of the pallbearers for the funeral beginning late afternoon on Monday. Consequently, I'm going to try my best to leave right after the funeral and drive the 17-18 hours straight in hopes of still documenting the storm. Depending on travel conditions, it looks as though it won't be until noon on Tuesday before I can get to SE Massachusetts. Given that I will have been up since early that Monday, the long overnight drive, and arriving with the storm already underway, I'm looking at possibly having to stay awake a full 48 hours! On Topic, a compromise between the Euro and GFS would be a reasonable forecast at this point...as they represent the most likely most eastern and western extent of the probable track, at this point in time.
  12. Calling it a night, but wanted to see how the EURO evolved before I did so. Thanks guys for providing the pbp for us cheapskates who don't have access to the pay products! lol
  13. That's the main takeaway, as well as being another 24 hours closer (from 00z runs last night).
  14. Lol. I'm honestly trying to keep some semblance of priorities. Just waiting for my wife to arrange an intervention, and have me purchase a MUCH larger insurance policy - with her as the beneficiary, of course. Back on topic, it'll be interesting to see if the EURO trends towards the GFS in about 30 minutes or so.
  15. Lol, you caught me lurking! I've definitely been watching each successive model run. Genuinely optimistic by todays trends and hopeful that we can get another KU, or significant blizzard, before this season comes to an end. It was only three weeks ago where you and I were discussing the prospects for another "March" HECS. Like most here, I'm hopeful this pattern will produce something significant, but it's too soon to get too invested. If we get a good model consensus showing something very similar to the 00z GFS verbatim, by Saturday, I will certainly be making arrangements to chase (breaking the news to my wife, readjusting my work schedule, reserving an SUV rental, etc.). Despite the cautious optimism, it's difficult not to get a little excited, considering the evolution of the pattern showing up on the models. Like Ginx stated...could be a long 5 days of model watching, hopefully!