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ncforecaster89

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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. ncforecaster89

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Speaking of EL Nino, here's a copy of a tweet I shared recently: Latest seasonal update from CSU; via @philklotzbach, is close to Avg of last three #Elnino #hurricane seasons: 2006 = 10/5/2 2009 = 9/3/2 2015 = 11/4/2 Avg. = 10/4/2 USA landfalls: 2006 = 3/0/0 2009 = 2/0/0 2015 = 2/0/0 5 of 7 TS strikes outside of Aug-Oct peak, 0 #hurricanes
  2. ncforecaster89

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Joaquin reached 135 kt at its peak, just short of a cat 5. Andrew actually occured during a very Neutral ENSO for ASO in 1992.
  3. ncforecaster89

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Matthew achieved cat 5 intensity during a neutral ENSO (ASO) in 2016.
  4. Revising "July" down to 2/1/0. Won't be surprised if we get less activity than that.
  5. Here's a tweet from my Twitter account (@tbrite89) on June 1, sharing numbers of all known TS/H/MH formations dating back to 1851: Hurricaneseason2018 just officially began. Thought I’d share updated statistical research into #June TS activity for the NATL basin (1851-2017): 1) 94 tropical storm formations (1 every 1.78 years) 2) 33 hurricanes (1 per 5.1 years) 3) 2 “major” hurricanes (1 per 83.5 years) Will add last occurrence of each: 1) TS = 2017 x 2 2) H = 2012 (Chris) 3) MH = 1966 (Alma)
  6. The trends so far aren't as favorable for as active a start to the season, as I originally anticipated; such as a June hurricane. Unless I see a moderation of the current atmospheric conditions, I will likely adjust my July projections. Going through, and updating, my past research into June & July climatology, thought it'd be interesting to share that a surprisingly high percentage of seasons (49.7%) didn't have a single TS develop during both of those two consecutive months. That said, I don't expect we get through both months without at least one TS formation.
  7. Let me preface my comments by stating that I appreciate your viewpoint, and also don't expect some of the higher predictions to materialize. That aside, it's important to remember that the ENSO cycle isn't the only factor influencing seasonal activity, as well as the fact that not all El Nino phases are created equal, so to speak. Moreover, it's still possible an El Nino could be delayed or even fail to transpire. The other significant factor that could lead to suppressed activity (anomalously cold MDR) could very well moderate as we get to the peak months of the season. The El Nino year of 1969 (you alluded to) was pretty hyper-active...so a similar active season wouldn't even be unprecedented. To reiterate, I too, don't anticipate an unusually active season. But, there's very little discernable skill in seasonal forecasts at this range. Considering that, and the recognition that weather forecasting in general is an inexact science...not too much surprises me anymore; relative to the atmospheric sciences. My own totals are slightly enhanced based on the additional May TS, and the tendency for the NHC to name a system that might otherwise not have been classified back when I interned there in the late 80's. Regardless, I'm looking forward to observing whatever this particular season has in store.
  8. 15/7/3 May 1/0/0 June 1/1/0 July 3/1/0 August 3/2/1 September 4/2/1 October 2/1/1 November 1/0/0 Note: May revise prior to deadline on the 4th. Can envision a slightly less active late-season, compliments of possible El Nino.
  9. ncforecaster89

    Mid-Atlantic "March" & "Spring" Snowfall Data (1884-2018):

    Here's a screenshot of a post provided by Donsutherland1 to my request for these lists, if he already had them. Excellent work, he did, putting it together!
  10. ncforecaster89

    NYC/NNJ/CNJ/LI "MARCH" & "SPRING" Snowfall Data (1869-2018)

    Thanks so much! Saw you posted the top 10 April snow storms for Baltimore in another thread from the 5th, onward. Can you please post the top 10 for that city for the entire month, in the mid-atlantic climatilogical thread, if not too much trouble?
  11. ncforecaster89

    NYC/NNJ/CNJ/LI "MARCH" & "SPRING" Snowfall Data (1869-2018)

    Awesome! Thanks, Don!! I can only find snowfall data back to 1931 for Newark. May I ask where you were able to get it further back?
  12. ncforecaster89

    Mid-Atlantic "March" & "Spring" Snowfall Data (1884-2018):

    TOP 10 "SPRING" SNOW STORMS FOR WASHINGTON, DC (1884-2018): 1) 3/27-28/1891 = 12.0" (6.0" on 27th & 28th) 2) 3/29-29/1942 = 11.5" 3) 3/21-22/1943 = 6.0" (4.0" on 21st) 4) 3/30-31/1964 = 5.8" 5) 4/01-01/1924 = 5.5" 6) 3/21-21/1924 = 5.3" 7) 3/21-21/2018 = 4.1" 8) 4/06-06/1889 = 4.0" 9) 3/22-22/1914 = 3.8" 10) 4/03-03/1915 = 3.5" Note: For events that lasted more than one day, but didn't produce measurable snowfall on a second day, only the day with accumulating snowfall is listed. Additionally, there were a total of 20 separate storms delivering >/= 1" of snow. 14 of which brought 2" or greater to the city. April: Only 8 individual storms produced accumulations of 1" or more, in the month of April. Total of 15 respective storms delivered 0.5" or more.
  13. Purpose of thread is to provide an easily obtained resource to historical snowfall data. In particular, this thread will focus on climatilogical data for various official observational sites throughout the Mid-atlantic region of the U.S. This will be an ongoing endeavor that I'll continuously update, as time permits. That aside, please feel free to share any relevant data or observations, here, as well.
  14. ncforecaster89

    NYC/NNJ/CNJ/LI "MARCH" & "SPRING" Snowfall Data (1869-2018)

    Don, Uncle, CP, or any others: Was/am planning on gathering a list of top 10 "Spring" events and "April" storms for both Newark and Islip. Before I do so, wanted to ask if anyone has already done this research? If so, please consider posting it here, in the thread. TIA
  15. ncforecaster89

    NYC/NNJ/CNJ/LI "MARCH" & "SPRING" Snowfall Data (1869-2018)

    Likewise, I can most certainly understand that legitimate perspective, as well. Upon further reflection, may revise list inclusive of the totals on 3/20/58. So happy for you, and the others in this subforum, who got to experience a top 10 April event, this morning. My wife was in NYC and took a couple pics and video for me; although she hated it (says it was very wet and slushy at Chealsea Market)!
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