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ncforecaster89

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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. Given the option to amend my earlier forecast, I’m simply going to add one additional hurricane…as I’ve been wavering between 8 and 9, since my original post). 19/9/4
  2. Although the general perception of many are that we are trending towards warmer and less snowy winters, I’m confident you will see a change to cooler and more wintry precipitation (similar to the 1980s) once the AMO switches to the cool phase.
  3. Interestingly, that was also the case for the March 1-2, 1980 winter storm that delivered blizzard conditions to the coastlines of NC and southern VA. In it, Durham recorded 15”, while Raleigh received a total accumulation of 11.1”. Ironically, it is the winter storm event that I’ve been currently researching. Once completed, I will provide greater details regarding this historic event for the eastern parts of NC and southern VA.
  4. The next system I want to discuss was an historical winter storm (and blizzard for many areas) that delivered record snowfall accumulations, and was followed by one of the most severe cold waves the Deep South has ever endured! January 22-25, 1940 Blizzard: During the late evening hours of 1/22/1940, an area of low pressure began bringing heavy snowfall to eastern portions of Texas. Over the subsequent 60 hours, it continued its trek eastward across the Southeast U.S., before ultimately moving NE offshore of the SE coastline. In doing so, it delivered record snowfall totals to 38 separate counties, from E TX to VA…that still stand to this very day! The northern and central parts of Alabama were battered by a terrific blizzard, which set the state record for snowfall accumulation of 22” in the small town of Reform. Likewise, this historic winter storm/blizzard remains the storm of record for the cities of Atlanta, GA (8.3”), Athens, GA (9.8”), Natchez, MS (9.5”), and Richmond, VA (21.6”). Some localities in the Atlanta suburbs actually saw amounts in excess of 10”. Although it was a generational weather event for the majority of the Southeastern states, the absolute brunt of its effects were felt in the southern and central portions of Virginia. There, the exceptionally heavy snowfall rates, strong winds, and very low temperatures combined to produce blinding white-out conditions and a tremendous blizzard! Peak wind gusts were recorded at 62 mph and sustained gale-force winds were widespread across this entire region…leading to wind chill values of well below zero in many locations. The hardest hit area was centered on Farmville, VA…where two feet of snow and drifts upwards of 6 feet were observed! Bitter Artic air was already in place preceding this epic winter storm and had set the stage for the extraordinary blizzard conditions that followed. In its aftermath, a reinforcing blast of cold, Artic air spilled down into these same localities…which even brought sub-freezing temperatures all the way down to Miami, FL! The following low temperatures were recorded as a result: Miami, FL: 28° * Tallahassee, FL: 15° Alexandria, LA: 8° Houston, TX: 5° * (Hobby AP) Natchez, MS: 4° Atlanta, GA: 4° Birmingham, AL: 1° Anderson, SC: 0° Dallas, TX: 0° * Calhoun Falls, SC: -2° * Hartwell, GA: -5° * Port Gibson, MS: -5° * Forest, MS: -5° * Henderson, NC: -8° * St. Joseph, LA: -8° * Salisbury, NC: -11° * Richmond, VA: -12° * Brevard, NC: -15° Farmville, VA: -16° * Blairsville, GA: -16° * *Current ‘all-time’ record lows Many rivers and streams were frozen solid throughout the Deep South, as the historic cold wave lasted for virtually the entire month of January 1940. Consequently, the period of 1/18 through 1/31, 1940 remains the lowest two-week mean average temperature ever observed in Birmingham, AL (22.5°). In all, the combination of record-setting snowfall totals, severe blizzard conditions, and extreme cold temperatures make the late January blizzard of 1940 one of the greatest (if not the greatest) winter storms to ever lay siege to the Southeast region of the United States! Snowfall Totals: Virginia: Randolph 5 NNE: 25.0” (County record) Kenbridge: 25.0” (County record) Farmville 2 N: 24.0” (County record) Bremo Bluff: 23.0” (County record) Columbia 2 SSE: 23.0” (County record) Walkerton 2 NW: 22.3” (County record) Richmond: 21.6” (County record) Danville: 20.0” Chatham: 20.0” Powhatan: 19.5” (County record) Tappahannock: 18.0” (County record) Crozier: 18.0” Appomattox: 16.0” Dalhgrens Weapons Lab: 15.3” (County record) Williamsburg 2 NW: 15.0” (County record) Hopewell: 14.3” Emporia 1 WNW: 14.2” (County record) Burkes Garden: 13.0” Lynchburg: 11.0” Pennington Gap: 10.5” Lexington: 10.1” Hot Springs: 9.0” Roanoke: 9.0” Whytheville 1 S: 9.0” Martinsville Flt: 7.5” Rocky Mount: 7.5” Pedlar Dam: 7.0” Blacksburg: 6.6” Bueno Vista: 6.0” Norfolk: 5.8” Alabama: Reform: 22.0” (State record) Gorgas: 18.0” (County record) Cullman (St. Bernard): 14.2” (County record) Boaz: 14.0” (County record) Valley Head: 14.0” Fayette: 14.0” Ethelsville: 14.0” Fort Payne: 13.0” Oneonta :12.5” Vernon: 12.5” (County record) Carbon Hill: 12.0” Anniston: 11.0” Winfield 2 SW: 10.1” Decatur: 10.0” Birmingham: 9.5” (snow depth of 10”) Guntersville: 9.2” Scottsboro: 9.0” Haleyville: 9.0” Gadsden: 9.0” or 12.0” ??? Leeds: 8.0” Talladega: 8.0” Clanton: 8.0” Calera: 7.1” Bridgeport 5 NW: 8.0” Huntsville: 5.5” Tuscaloosa Olive: 5.0” North Carolina: Graham 2 ENE: 18.0” Greensboro: 14.0” Asheboro 2 W: 14.0” Siler City 2 N: 12.5” Tapoco: 12.2” Henderson 2 NNW: 12.0” Chapel Hill 2 W: 12.0” Durham: 12.0” Rodman: 11.0” Albemarle: 10.0” Louisburg: 10.0” Randleman: 10.0” Hendersonville: 9.0” Shelby 2 NNE: 9.0” Tryon: 9.0” Brevard: 8.5” Mocksville 5 SE: 8.5” Murphy: 8.2” Waynesville 1 E: 7.8” Statesville 2 N: 7.0” Highlands: 7.0” Morganton: 7.0” Pisgah Forest 1 N: 7.0” Charlotte: 6.8” Arcola: 6.5” Salisbury: 6.5” North Wilkesboro: 6.5” Mt Mitchell: 6.3” Lenoir: 6.2” Jefferson 2 E: 6.0” Marion 2 NW: 6.0” Cullowhee: 6.0” Asheville: 5.8” Raleigh: 5.5” Enfield: 5.5” Mt Airy: 5.5” Gastonia: 5.5” Mississippi: Louisville: 15.0” (County record) Columbus : 14.0” (23/24) Macon 2 NE: 12.5” (County record) Forest: 11.5” (County record) Jackson: 10.5” (22nd/23rd) Crystal Sprg Exp: 10.5” Kosciusko: 10.0” State University: 10.0” Walnut Grove 2 S: 10.0” Natchez: 9.5” (County record) Port Gibson 1 NE: 9.0” Canton 4 N: 8.7” Tupelo: 8.0” (24th) Aberdeen: 8.0” Water Valley: 8.0” Leakesville: 7.9” Eupora 2 E: 7.5” Pontotoc: 7.5” Boonesville: 7.0” Grenada 5 NNE: 7.0” Corinth 7 SW: 7.0” University: 6.0” Greenville: 6.0” Belzoni: 6.0” Stoneville Exp S: 5.8” Moorhead: 5.4” Tennessee: Rogersville: 15.0” Loudon 1 E: 14.0” (County record) Copperhill: 12.0” (County record) Charleston: 10.2” (County record) Kingsport: 9.5” Knoxville: 9.4” Tiptonville: 9.0” (County record) Chattanooga: 8.2” Gatlinburg: 8.0” Monteagle: 7.1” Savannah 6 SW: 7.0” Selmar: 7.0” Bristol: 6.0” Greenville: 6.0” Crossville: 6.0” Monterey: 6.0” Sewanee: 6.0” Murfreesboro 5 N: 5.9” Covington 3 SW: 5.5” Lewisburg: 5.5” Mc Minnville: 5.0” Kingston: 5.0” Bolivar water works: 5.0” Dickson: 5.0” (snow depth on 23rd) Jackson Exp station: 5.0” Cookeville: 5.0” Nashville: 4.9” Georgia: Dalton: 14.5” (County record) Chickamauga: 13.5” (23rd) Summerville: 13.0” (County record) Dahlonega 4 WSW: 12.5” Cornelia: 11.2” (County record) Gainesville: 11.0” Cumming 2 N: 10.8” (County record) Taylorsville: 10.5” Rome: 10.5” Atlanta Kirkwood: 10.0” (County record) Norcross: 10.0” (County record) Carlton Brg: 10.0” (County record) Athens: 9.8” (County record) Cedartown: 9.5” Clayton: 9.5” Newnan 5 N: 9.0” (County record) Cartersville: 8.5” Atlanta: 8.3” (County record) Toccoa: 8.2” Hartwell: 7.5” Carrollton: 6.8” Ellijay: 6.5” Blairsville Exp: 6.0” Talbotton: 4.0” Sparta: 4.0” (County record) Louisiana: St Joseph 3 N: 10.8” (County record) Tallulah: 9.1” Alexandria: 8.2” De Ridder: 8.0” Calhoun Res station: 7.0” Leesville: 6.5” Natchitoches: 6.5” Lake Providence: 6.0” Bastrop: 5.3” Logansport: 3.8” Baton Rouge: 3.5” Lake Charles: 3.4” South Carolina: Anderson: 9.5” Walhalla: 9.0” Clemson: 8.5” Caesars Head: 8.0” Santuck: 7.2” Ware Shoals: 7.1” Greenville: 6.9” Calhoun Falls: 6.4” Catawba: 6.0” Fort Mill 4 NW: 6.0” Laurens: 6.0” Chester 1 NW: 6.0” Woodruff: 5.8” Chesnee 7 WNW: 5.0” Texas: Bon Weir: 8.0” (County record) Lufkin Angelina AP: 5.0” Dallas: 4.0” Longview: 4.0” Center: 4.0” Dialville 2 W: 4.0” Tyler: 3.5” Houston: 3.0” Henderson: 3.0” Gilmer 4 WSW: 3.0” Marshall: 3.0” Mt Pleasant: 3.0” References: NCDC Winter Weather Extremes: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/FL/1 NWS Local Climate Data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=akq PlantMaps (.com) Record Temp Data: https://www.plantmaps.com/virginia-record-high-and-low-temperature-map.php WKRN (Nashville, TN) article on frozen River: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/special-reports/why-doesnt-the-cumberland-river-freeze-over-anymore/amp/ AlabamaWx Weather Blog Article: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=784 Additional Reading: Atlanta Journal Constitution Article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/news/local/atlanta-worst-snowstorm-wasn-snowmageddon-snowjam-the-blizzard/S15Wm9pP966z5sCr5Ri6XL/%3foutputType=amp Farmville Herald Article: https://www.farmvilleherald.com/2020/12/the-great-blizzard-of-1940-stranded-by-snow-and-saved-by-a-mule/
  5. I’m currently completely extensive research into one of the most extreme blizzards to ever impact the Southeastern states of the U.S. An event that still holds the snowfall of record in numerous counties from E TX to VA. Consequently, I look forward to sharing the details of this truly historic storm system in the coming days. In the meantime, I want to wish each member of our sub forum a wonderful rest of the weekend! Tony
  6. I’ll begin with a reminder that “It’s not over until it’s over”… as those who bore witness to a major winter storm during the early Spring of 1983, can attest. March 24-25, 1983: Thus far, I’ve had difficulty finding details regarding this particular storms development and the specific track of the surface low as it moved briskly NE off the SE coastline. That aside, it was a major winter storm that delivered snow totals of 10-12” to a few locations in GA, SC, and NC. In addition, portions of East Central AL saw amounts up to 6”. Due to its precise track and rapid intensification, the coastal plain of NC received the brunt of the storm. Thundersnow accompanied the heaviest rates and wind gusts of 50-70 mph were fairly common along the shoreline. A peak wind gust of 87 mph was recorded in Carteret County. These strong winds combined with the heavy, wet snow to cause numerous downed trees, widespread power outages, and even some sporadic structural damage. Snowfall Totals: North Carolina: Tarboro, NC: 12.0” Charlotte, NC: 10.3” Edenton, NC: 10.3” Lumberton, NC: 10.0” Mt. Mitchell, NC: 9.0” Tryon, NC: 8.0” Clinton, NC: 8.0” Raleigh, NC: 7.3” Albemarle, NC: 7.2” Elizabeth City, NC: 7.0” Concord, NC: 7.0” Wilson 3 SW, NC: 7.0” Smithfield, NC: 7.0” Greenville, NC: 6.9” Longwood, NC: 6.0” Jackson Springs 5 WNW, NC: 6.0” Ft. Bragg, NC: 6.0” Asheboro, NC: 5.6” Kinston, NC: 5.5” Fayetteville, NC: 5.0” Laurinburg, NC: 5.0” Highlands, NC: 5.0” Washington, NC: 5.0” Wilmington, NC: 5.0” (4.2” at the airport) South Carolina: Catawba, SC: 10.0” Greenville, SC: 9.3” Gaffney 6 E, SC: 8.0” (snow depth on 25th) Santuck, SC: 8.0” Myrtle Beach, SC: 7.0” Antreville, SC: 7.0” Pickens, SC: 7.0” Chester, SC: 7.0” Calhoun Falls, SC: 7.0” Ware Shoals, SC: 7.0” Wallhalla, SC: 6.0” West Pelzer, SC: 5.0” Georgia: Elberton, GA: 10.0” (snow depth on 25th) Athens, GA: 8.7” Atlanta, GA: 7.9” Jonesboro, GA: 6.5” (25th, no data on 24th) Blairsville, GA: 5.5” Alabama: Ashland 3 ENE: 5.8” Heflin, AL: 5.5” Lafayette, AL: 5.0” (snow depth on 24th) References: NC State Climate Office https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=104 NWS Climate Database https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ilm
  7. Hi everyone, Thought I’d create a catch-all thread to post, and discuss, some of the most significant winter storms to affect the Southeast U.S. states. With that in mind, I intend to share details regarding many of the historic snow storms that have battered the SE…dating as far back as the 19th century. Moreover, I look forward to reading first-hand accounts of the most memorable events you’ve experienced, first-hand.
  8. It does suck, no doubt. But, I’m fully expecting subsequent seasons to produce a reversion to the mean. That’s the way I’m choosing to look at it…and will be eagerly looking forward to seeing its manifestation!
  9. Completely understand the frustration, but I’m a firm believer that any weather event that has occurred in the past will materialize again at some point in the future. Moreover, I suspect it’s also only a matter of time before we return to a more productive climate state (e.g, a cycle similar to the 1980’s). Even so, one still needs to keep things in their proper perspective, given that we do actually live in the “southeast.” For just me personally, I can appreciate that 6” plus events are so relatively rare, as it enhances the significance of them…when they do occur.
  10. This delivered some of the best blizzard conditions I’ve documented on the South coastal areas of Massachusetts. I’ll have to upload that footage at some point to share, here. Was at Plymouth Harbor for that one.
  11. This particular blizzard stands out to me as being one of the most dynamic (electric) systems I’ve experienced, personally. Not only did CT see widespread thundersnow, but I actually documented the occurrence multiple times in both Providence, RI and in Plymouth, MA. A very underrated storm!
  12. 29°f light snow 0.9” measured at car dealership in Providence, RI Still driving to Plymouth, MA during this overnight. Will decide after sunrise if or when I might relocate from there.
  13. Here’s the actual text message I received: “I’m hearing some guy on a weather forum, from Philadelphia, went a few blocks from where he lived and assaulted another member for claiming the storm is a bust!!!”
  14. That’s what I said and thought! Insane if true.
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