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ncforecaster89

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About ncforecaster89

  • Birthday 05/03/1970

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    FIGURE-4: Blizzard’s in Boston (1945-2017): 1) 3/16-17/1956 (Near-blizzard) a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 2 (430-630 pm/16th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 48 mph sustained c) Total snowfall = 6.7” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.32 in./993 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 24 hour snow duration. Visibility at 1/2 sm or less for 13 hours (1230 pm/16 to 130 am/17) 2) 3/19-20/1956 (BLIZZARD): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 4 (130-530 pm/19th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 50 mph sustained c) Total snowfall = 13.3” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.90 in./1012 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 23 hour snow duration. 3) 3/24/1956 (BLIZZARD) a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 5.5 (730 am-1 pm/24th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 38 mph sustained c) Total snowfall = 5.7” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.78 in./1008 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = Snow duration of 15 hours. Visibility at 1/2 sm or less for 9 hours. 4) 3/20-21/1958 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 1 (12-1 am/21st) b Highest observed wind gusts = 39 mph sustained c) Total snowfall = 6.7” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.17 in./988 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 24 hour duration of snow over course of three days (20-22). Rain turned to snow late on the 20th, then back to rain on the 21st, followed by light snow showers on the 22nd. 5) 3/12-13/1959 (BLIZZARD): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 7 (530 am-230 pm/12th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 38 mph sustained c) Total snowfall = 6.4” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 28.91 in./979 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = snow duration of 12 hours over course of two days. Snow turned to sleet on the 12th...before culminating with light snow showers early on the 13th. Visibility got down to 1/16 sm at peak of blizzard conditions! 6) 3/3-5/1960 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 1 (5-6 pm/3rd) b Highest observed wind gusts = 46 mph sustained c) Total snowfall = 19.8” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.15 in./987 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 46 hour duration of snow over course of 3 days. Visibility of 1/2 sm or less for combined total of 20 hours on the 3rd and 4th. 7) 3/18-19/1977 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 0.5 (350-420 pm/18th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 35 mph gusts c) Total snowfall = 9.6” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.18 in./988 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 14.0 hour snow duration. Snow mixed with sleet at various times during this event. 8) 3/29-30/1984 (BLIZZARD): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 7 (1230-730 pm/29th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 40 mph sustained/58 mph gusts c) Total snowfall = 9.4” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 29.11/985 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 29 hour snow duration. Snow began early on the 29th, switched to rain, then heavy snow, back to rain, then light snow, before ending as rain on the 30th. Visibility down to 1/16 sm at peak of blizzard conditions. Visibility at 1/2 sm or less for 9 hours. 9) 3/4-6/1993 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 10) 3/13-14/1993 (BLIZZARD): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 6 (130-730 pm/13th) b Highest observed wind gusts = 54 sustained. Gusts to 71 mph. c) Total snowfall = 12.8” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 28.49 in./965 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = Visibility recorded at a remarkable 0 sm, accompanied by TSSN and hail, during height of incredible blizzard conditions! 11) 3/3-4/1994 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 12) 3/5-7/2001 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 13) 3/16-18/2004 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 14) 3/1-2/2005 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 15) 3/16/2007 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 16) 3/7-8/2013 (Near-blizzard): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = b Highest observed wind gusts = c) Total snowfall = d) Lowest barometric pressure = e) Additional noteworthy obs = 17) 3/14/2017 (BLIZZARD): a) Hours of blizzard conditions = 3.75 (11 am-245 pm) b Highest observed wind gusts = 46 sustained/gusts to 57 mph c) Total snowfall = 6.6” d) Lowest barometric pressure = 28.91 in./979 mb e) Additional noteworthy obs = 9.5 hour duration of snowfall. Light snow began early on the 14th, before becoming very heavy in the early afternoon. Snow transitioned back to rain, before concluding as light freezing rain very late on the 14th. NOTE: Will finish adding the associated data for those I’ve yet to complete, as soon as possible. At least wanted to go ahead and list the 17 major March winter storms that brought a period of near-blizzard conditions to Boston. Please check back soon to see the rest.
  2. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    Still need to add the other twenty-seven 6” events to figure-1...as well as the contents corresponding to figure-4. I’ll do my best to get it done over the weekend. Furthermore, I intend to provide some of the most relevant information and stats regarding the seventeen blizzard and near-blizzard events referenced above. In the meantime, I hope the impending winter storm delivers a fairly widespread warning-level event to as many of this sub-forum, as possible, and each of you have a great weekend, regardless!
  3. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    FIGURE-3: Daily snowfall record for the month of March (1891-2017): 3/01 = 6.1” (2005) 3/02 = 7.0” (1916) 3/03 = 8.3” (1960) 3/04 = 11.4” (1960) 3/05 = 8.7” (1993) 3/06 = 6.2” (2001) 3/07 = 9.9” (1967) 3/08 = 10.5” (2013) 3/09 = 4.5” (1939) 3/10 = 4.2” (1918) 3/11 = 5.0” (1934) 3/12 = 6.4” (1959) 3/13 = 12.3” (1993) 3/14 = 6.6” (2017) 3/15 = 7.1” (1967) 3/16 = 7.9” (2007) 3/17 = 3.1” (1993) 3/18 = 9.4” (1977) 3/19 = 13.2” (1956) 3/20 = 10.2” (1944) 3/21 = 4.2” (1958) 3/22 = 3.9” (1915) 3/23 = 2.9” (1992) 3/24 = 8.5” (1993) 3/25 = 0.7” (1912) 3/26 = 3.0” (1899) 3/27 = 2.6” (1959) 3/28 = 1.2” (1932) 3/29 = 9.1” (1984) 3/30 = 2.4” (1922) 3/31 = 5.8” (1970)
  4. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    FIGURE-2: List of all March seasonal totals for last 127 years (1891-2017): 3/1891 = 16.0" 3/1892 = 20.3" 3/1893 = 4.5" 3/1894 = T 3/1895 = 3.8" 3/1896 = 14.5" 3/1897 = 3.3" 3/1898 = 6.0" 3/1899 = 9.3" 3/1900 = 7.6"6 Decadal total = 85.3" 3/1901 = T 3/1902 = 7.5" 3/1903 = T 3/1904 = 8.9" 3/1905 = 3.6" 3/1906 = 21.9" 3/1907 = 6.6" 3/1908 = 4.8" 3/1909 = 3.1" 3/1910 = 0.2" Decadal total = 56.6" 3/1911 = 3.1" 3/1912 = 9.1" 3/1913 = 0.5" 3/1914 = 5.2" 3/1915 = T 3/1916 = 33.0" 3/1917 = 12.9" 3/1918 = 12.8" 3/1919 = 2.4" 3/1920 = 11.0" Decadal total = 90.0" 3/1921 = T 3/1922 = 5.9" 3/1923 = 10.6" 3/1924 = 7.4" 3/1925 = T 3/1926 = 2.8" 3/1927 = 0.6" 3/1928 = 6.5" 3/1929 = 3.6" 3/1930 = 0.6" Decadal total = 38.0" 3/1931= 7.3" 3/1932 = 5.8" 3/1933 = 5.1" 3/1934 = 10.5" 3/1935 = 2.1" 3/1936 = 3.3" 3/1937 = 1.9" 3/1938 = 0.4" 3/1939 = 18.3" 3/1940 = 0.3"" Decadal total = 55.0" 3/1941= 12.5" 3/1942 = 7.8" 3/1943 = 8.0" 3/1944 = 12.7" 3/1945 = 0.5" 3/1946 = 0.2" 3/1947 = 0.9" 3/1948 = 11.8" 3/1949 = 9.9" 3/1950 = 5.1" Decadal total = 69.4" 3/1951 = 3.9" 3/1952 = 1.4" 3/1953 = 0.2" 3/1954 = 0.4" 3/1955 = 7.0" 3/1956 = 31.2" 3/1957 = 11.5" 3/1958 = 12.0" 3/1959 = 14.6" 3/1960 = 22.3" Decadal total = 104.5" 3/1961 = 9.0" 3/1962 = 1.1" 3/1963 = 13.6" 3/1964 = 7.7" 3/1965 = 9.7" 3/1966 = 3.3" 3/1967 = 22.9" 3/1968 = 6.8" 3/1969 = 6.1" 3/1970 = 18.2" Decadal total = 98.4" 3/1971 = 7.4" 3/1972 = 12.1" 3/1973 = 0.3" 3/1974 = 0.1" 3/1975 = 1.8" 3/1976 = 10.8" 3/1977 = 10.7" 3/1978 = 16.1" 3/1979 = T 3/1980 = 3.6" Decadal total = 62.9" 3/1981 = 0.5" 3/1982 = 5.3" 3/1983 = 0.2" 3/1984 = 19.0" 3/1985 = 3.7" 3/1986 = 2.6" 3/1987 = 3.5" 3/1988 = 5.0" 3/1989 = 3.2" 3/1990 = 4.1" Decadal total = 47.1" 3/1991 = 3.4" 3/1992 = 10.8" 3/1993 = 38.9" 3/1994 = 14.8" 3/1995 = 0.4" 3/1996 = 16.8" 3/1997 = 8.2" 3/1998 = 3.6" 3/1999 = 11.4" 3/2000 = 2.0" Decadal total = 110.7" 3/2001 = 19.2" 3/2002 = 1.4" 3/2003 = 8.1" 3/2004 = 10.6" 3/2005 = 14.5" 3/2006 = T 3/2007 = 10.2" 3/2008 = 1.0" 3/2009 = 10.7" 3/2010 = 0.2" Decadal total = 75.9" 3/2011 = 1.3" 3/2012 = 0.6" 3/2013 = 20.6" 3/2014 = 2.2" 3/2015 = 8.6" 3/2016 = 4.1" 3/2017 = 10.1" Decadal total = 47.5"
  5. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    FIGURE-1: Complete list of all snowfall events >/= 6” (1891-2017): Note: Will provide a list of the 1891-1957 events, shortly. 1988-2017: 3/07-08/2013 = 13.1" (10.5" on the 8th) 3/13-14/1993 = 12.8" (12.3" on the 13th) 3/05-08/1996 = 12.4" (6.5" on the 7th) 3/05-07/2001 = 9.8" (6.2" on the 6th) 3/16-18/2004 = 9.6" (6.5" on the 16th) 3/04-06/1993 = 9.2" (8.7" on the 5th) 3/23-24/1993 = 8.6" (8.5" on the 24th) 3/01-02/2009 = 8.5" (6.9" on the 2nd) 3/16-17/2007 = 8.1" (7.9" on the 17th) 3/03-04/1994 = 8.0" (6.7" on the 3rd) 3/18-19/2013 = 7.2" (6.3" on the 19th) 3/14/2017..... = 6.6" 3/01/2005..... = 6.1" 3/06/2003..... = 5.8" (rounded to nearest full numeral) B 1958-1987: 3/03-05/1960 = 19.8" (11.4" on the 4th) 3/05-07/1967 = 10.9" (9.9" on the 7th) 3/15-16/1967 = 10.0" (7.1" on the 16th) 3/18-19/1977 = 9.6" (9.4" on the 18th) 3/29-30/1984 = 9.4" (9.1" on the 29th) 3/03-04/1978 = 9.2" (8.2" on the 3rd) 3/01-02/1963 = 8.7" 3/03-05/1972 = 7.4" (6.0" on the 5th) 3/29/1970..... = 7.3" 3/13/1984..... = 6.7" 3/20-22/1958 = 6.7” 3/12/1959..... = 6.4" 3/31/1970..... = 5.8" (rounded to nearest full numeral).
  6. February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Hi uncle W. Great post regarding the NYC climatological snowfall record for March! I have been working on similar research for the city of Boston. It has been a very ardeous task, given that I've had to look through and tally up the data from each monthly record going back 127 years. Was wondering if there's any easier way to ascertain and compile the data, that I may be unaware of?
  7. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    Thanks Ginx! Actually, just finished compiling the data back to 1891. Will update this thread as soon as I can post it. Possibly as early as this evening or prior to tomorrow morning. Noticed 1956 had three separate events exceeding 6"...the largest one being 13.3" on 3/19-20/56. Total for the month came to 31.2". It snowed on 17 different days, as well. Snow-depth was recorded at 18" following that largest event. A repeat of '56 would be awesome!
  8. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    Thanks! Even if SNE doesn't get another truly significant event to justify a chase, for myself...I'm still rooting for you guys to get another warning-level event or two, before this season comes to a close.
  9. SNE "March" Snowfall Data (1891-2017):

    Thought I'd share the research I've been conducting into the official climatological data for major reporting sites throughout SNE. This thread is being created with the intention of sharing additional information, as I have time to compile the corresponding data, for all other official observational locations, as well. For this particular endeavor, the period consisting of the past 60 years was selected; whereby the two most recent 30 year climatological periods can be used for comparative purposes. The first installment of data will focus on snowfall observations collected at KBOS (Boston, MA) during the month of March. UPDATE (2/16/2018): Have since decided to extend this research back to 1891...coinciding with the beginning of official snowfall records for Boston. MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOWFALL DATA FOR BOSTON, MA (1891-2017): 1) How many "warning" criteria snowfall events (>/= 6") have occurred? A) Entire period of record (1891-2017): There were 53 distinct events that occurred during the past 127 seasons (See figure-1 for a list of each specific event). B Most recent 30 year period (1988-2017): 14 separate events transpired during 11 individual years. C) Previous 30 year period (1958-1987): 13 separate events during 10 individual years. 2) How much total snowfall accumulated during the aforementioned periods, and what were the average seasonal amounts? A) Entire period of record (1891-2017): 951.6” total. 7.49” avg. B Most recent 30 year period (1988-2017): 246.0" total. 8.2" seasonal avg. C) Previous 30 year period (1958-1987): 255.7" total. 8.5" seasonal avg. 3) What is the mean statistical return period for a 6", 9", and 12" snowfall event, respectively? A) Entire period of record (1891-2017): 6" = once every 2.39 years 9" = once every 6.1 years 12" = once every 17.1 years B Most recent period (1988-2017): 6" = once every 2.1 years 9" = once every 5 years 12" = once every 10 years C) Previous period (1958-1987): 6" = once every 2.3 years 9" = once every 5 years 12" = once every 30 years. 4) What were the top 3 events for each designated climatological era? A) Entire period of record (1891-2017): 3/03-05/1960 = 19.8" (11.4" on the 4th) 3/03-05/1891 = 15.5" (12.0" on the 4th) 3/19-20/1956 = 13.3" (13.2” on the 19th) B 1988-2017: 3/07-08/2013 = 13.1" (10.5" on the 8th) 3/13-14/1993 = 12.8" (12.3" on the 13th) 3/05-08/1996 = 12.4" (6.5" on the 7th) C) 1958-1987: 3/03-05/1960 = 19.8" (11.4" on the 4th) 3/05-07/1967 = 10.9" (9.9" on the 7th) 3/15-16/1967 = 10.0" (7.1" on the 16th) 5) What were the greatest and least snow-producing seasons (See figure-2 for list of individual seasonal totals) for "March?" A) Most prolific: 1891-2017 = 38.9” (1993) 1988-2017 = 38.9" (1993) 1958-1987 = 22.9" (1967) B Least abundant: 1891-2017 = T (8 different seasons) 1988-2017 = T (2006) 1958-1987 = T (1979) 6) What are the current "daily" snowfall records for the month of March?: See Figure-3, contained in a separate post in this thread, for a list of the "new" snowfall records for each day of the month. 7) How many Blizzard events materialized and verified in the city of Boston (1945-2017)?: See Figure-4 for a list of all blizzard events. It's important to note that I was unable to locate wind data for any of the winter storms prior to 1945. As a result, I couldn't ascertain if they met official blizzard criteria. A) Entire period of record (1945-2017): Six discrete storm systems achieved blizzard status throughout this Era. An additional eleven were near-blizzards. B Most recent 30 year period (1988-2017): There have been only two verifiable blizzards that took place in the last 30 years. However, seven other winter storms brought near-blizzard conditions to the city. C) Previous 30 year period (1958-1987): This epoch delivered four major blizzard events, with four others distinguishing themselves by impacting Boston with near-blizzard effects. SOURCES: NWS BOSTON http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box Weather Underground https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBOS/1956/3/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Note: Will add additional data and other fascinating facts as time permits. Right now, simply wanted to provide an easy resource for anyone interested in some of the most pertinent data, from KBOS, during the past 127 years.
  10. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    As is the science, none of us can be certain how the last week of February and all of March will evolve...relative to sensible weather. Hence, one of the main reasons many of us are drawn to this dynamic and fluid field of wonderment and exploration. That said, if SNE is to see another widespread significant event (snowfall totals >/= 12"), I'm inclined to look towards the first two weeks of March, given the current state of the atmosphere and likely delayed effects of any subsequent changes, therein. Although outside of my designated subforum, I'm most interested in SNE weather for blizzard and/or major snowstorm potential. Even so, don't post much winter weather analysis, here, given that so many of you are so well-versed in the science and the various teleconnections that influence the large-scale pattern. Without parroting the same general rationale for the aforementioned prognostication, I'll add that many of SNE's most significant storms occurred after the conclusion of meteorological winter (i.e. February 28/29). The baroclinic zone is often enhanced by the clashing air masses coinciding with the forthcoming change in seasons. Thus, I still hold out hope for one last significant/major event through at least the first 2 weeks of March. In short, winter isn't over, yet, nor do I expect SNE to escape without one last widespread "warning" event (no less than 50% probability).
  11. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    Congrats to everyone who got to experience a winter wonderland of snow from this most recent event. I'm about ready to call it a night, myself. Good night, all!
  12. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    Finally made it to Nags Head via hwy 64 E. It was a rather harrowing drive through the convective banding that set up near Columbia and points to the E of there. It was blowing and blinding SN+ in that band, where I could barely see 25 feet in front of me, didn't help that the road was completely covered and pitch dark along that rather desolate hwy!
  13. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    Just stopped here, for gas, in Plymouth, NC. It's 32f, with SN accompanied by gusty winds. Ironically, about 20 minutes ago, between Washington and Plymouth, temp was 26f and BLSN. These areas have a coating, but are accumulating at a respectable rate. Onward to Hatteras island.
  14. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Thanks so much! So thankful so many had a great event, already!! Driving, but will provide updates as I stop along the way.
  15. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Currently in Wallace, NC...right at the 385 exit off I40. Heading to Hatteras island in hopes of an overperforming Coastall. 35f SN- Beginning to accumulate on sidewalks.
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