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ncforecaster89

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About ncforecaster89

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wilmington, NC
  • Interests
    Hurricanes and blizzards are my primary interests relative to a specific atmospheric phenomenon. Tropical meteorology was, and has been, my focus since my first hurricane experience at the impressionable age of 14. It was this fateful encounter that led me to pursue a degree in atmospheric sciences. While in college, I was most fortunate to have interned at the NHC (by way of a student internship) with the late Bob Case as a mentor. Although I no longer work in the meterological field professionally, I still enjoy helping others by sharing the knowledge others have so generously given me. Thus, one is most likely to see the vast majority of my posts being centered on tropical meterology.

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  1. Excellent posts regarding chasing in the Tug, off Ontario! Here are a few pics from the big 1/16 LES event near Adams. Considering doing it again, as soon as next weekend. But, may wait for a significant blizzard event in SNE, instead. Always looking for an historic weather event to document. Whether I, too, choose to chase, I'm praying each of you get at least a 3 snowflake event out of this upcoming pattern change!
  2. A few max wind gust obs from SNE via Twitter (Boston NWS): Very impressive storm system! Congrats!!
  3. Hurricane-force gust recorded in Mashpee:
  4. Only question I have: Why are both managers still leaving (using) their batting practice pitchers on the mound?
  5. Obviously don't know how to embed a tweet here, but 70 kt. gust recorded at Narragansett Bay! Tweet from Boston NWS: "Conimicut Light on Narragansett Bay reported a wind gust to 81 mph at 11:18 pm!#
  6. Expect mid to eastern LI to see highest gusts mix down from the LLJ as the strongest convection moves up from the south in the next couple of hours. Could see gusts > 60 kt.
  7. Nice wind gusts so far. Look at those pressure falls! Fully expect to see >/= storm-force wind obs overnight, there.
  8. I wholeheartedly agree with this post. Very well put, Will! Only thing I'd add is that a handheld anemometer is going to record a lesser wind speed than that at 10m. Consequently, the aforementioned 56 mph ob corresponds to a gust exceeding 60 mph at the standard ASOS height. Regardless, it's a natural tendency for everyone to overestimate the wind, as you so well noted. Despite experiencing winds exceeding HF on at least 30 different occasions, it never ceases to amaze me how strong a 64 kt wind gust truly is. In fact, the same applies to a "storm force" wind of 50 kt; an appropriately named and categorization for winds of such strength, IMHO! Edit: Feel confident there will be numerous reports of gusts >/= 50 kt...with >/= 64 kt on the outer Cape. Hoping it mixes down that well for many of you, and all residents in the entire region don't experience personal damage to property; much less any bodily injury!
  9. Meant to post this earlier. I chose not to chase this system as I just got back from my 3 year wedding anniversary, and my wife was not cool with me immediately taking off again. That aside, wanted to share that earlier, even here in Wilmington, NC...there were jet engine gusts roaring well above the trees as this system was rapidly deepening and consolidating off the coast. A significant harbinger of what's to come up into your region. Safe to say, wish I was there, myelf! Good luck to you, all!! Edit: Should add, as most already know, it will be all about how much of the intense winds of the LLJ can mix down to ground level, as there's no doubt they are ripping at the 850-900 mb level.
  10. The old "EE" rule. Prefer 2 see that combo at 48 hours out. Still a ways out. Good news: Big potential still exists. Huge question: Will that still be the case 24 hours from now?
  11. I post in this subforum, predominantly, because I not only enjoy the discussion (And posters, herein), but this region is the most likely one to provide a prospective blizzard chase. That aside, I'm more of the mindset that it's still way too early to know how this season will ultimately evolve. Seen too many that appeared destined to disappoint, only to see a significant pattern-change that produced an over-performer ('14-'15, anyone?). Simply put, I won't be fretting unless, or until, the various teleconnections appear unfavorable...and it's mid-January.
  12. Unlike previous chases, I did take a short two minute cell phone video of Irma at its peak in Naples. If interested in checking it out, I uploaded it to YouTube. Peak wind gust occurs around the 1:09 mark and shortly thereafter. At some point in the future, hopefully during the off-season, will get around to editing and posting all the video footage of all the hurricanes I've documented from 2004 through Nate (20 total), as well as the 9 blizzards since 2014.
  13. That's not how the translational speed affects the maximum sustained winds (MSW) in the NE quadrant of the storm. In your theoretical scenario, the 90 mph MSW is the maximum 1 minute average wind anywhere in the hurricane. The translational speed is the main reason the MSW is typically found in the aforementioned right-front quadrant. That said, a fast-moving hurricane will generally have a reduced MSW in the NW quad, as a result of the translational speed working against the winds moving in an opposing direction.
  14. Four "major" hurricane landfalls in one season, occurred in 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. I believe there have been 2 or 3 other years with three "major" H landfalls in the USA.
  15. As I posted in the main "Maria" thread, hurricane Earl delivered HF wind gusts to the outer-most Outer Banks in September of 2010. It was very similar in size (HF winds reached 70 nm from the center) and the forecast intensity of Maria as it reaches its closest approach. To be specific, it got within 90 nm of Hatteras Island and Nags Head, while moving from 35.3 N 74.0 W to 35.8 N 73.7 W. It was a 100 mph category-two at 35.3 and a 85 mph category-one at 35.8 N. I mentioned this to provide a general barometer/guideline as to what coordinates Maria must reach in order to deliver possible HF wind gusts to the NC Outer Banks; all things being equal.