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ncforecaster89

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Everything posted by ncforecaster89

  1. You’re absolutely correct. I’ll add that the strongest winds measured by Recon (located in the innermost portion of the E eyewall) actually moved in between the two aforementioned locations…with Grand Isle likely getting higher winds than Port Fourchon. See attached radar image, below. It’s important to remember that the most intense winds are generally located in the innermost portion of the NE eyewall…as the winds are not uniformly distributed throughout the eyewall, as some incorrectly assume.
  2. Mods: please feel free to move both the post from Normandy and my own (as I wouldn’t have made mine without theirs) to banter…if you feel appropriate, as I don’t think either belong here. Thanks, Tony
  3. First of all, I’m a meteorologist first and foremost…and a chaser/weather enthusiast, second. This means I’m far more concerned with the accuracy of scientific data than anything else. Your ignorant assumption that I give two cents about supposedly “angling to keep Michael greater than x” has zero merit! As for Dorian, I’ve already given my unbiased, wholly objective scientific opinion (has nothing whatsoever to do with me) as to why I still believe the winds in Michael (at the west end of MX Beach) were just a little stronger than what anyone experienced in Marsh Harbor. It’s not just simply the video evidence (as it’s virtually impossible to accurately compare wind speeds at such extreme velocities), but also the fact that the strongest winds of Dorian remained well N of that area, and offshore, thankfully. Despite your false presuppositions, I genuinely could care less if someone records stronger winds on video than myself. Why would I? I’m not that kind of narcissistic, immature, attention-seeking individual…but nice try to discredit my well-reasoned viewpoint. There will be many far more intense tropical cyclones in the WPAC, for example, that I’m sure one day someone will capture even stronger winds than I saw in Michael. It certainly won’t be me, because I have no interest whatsoever in chasing TCs outside the U.S. mainland. For me, I don’t chase hurricanes to bring attention to myself, but rather to share that experience with others. How many selfie’s have you ever seen of me? Furthermore, I stay behind at least 1-2 days following each intercept to help in the cleanup…not rushing to get out of the area to showcase the footage I captured. I bring these things up simply to highlight how misguided and ignorant your mischaracterization of me and my motives truly are…not to begrudge other chasers who may choose to do things differently. Back to Ida, “instantaneous” wind gusts are exactly that; they aren’t even of 1 second duration. As I stated in the post you found so objectionable, those wind gusts should be viewed in their proper context. Instead, I keep reading posts all over social media wrongly assuming these measurements correspond to a category-five MSW at 10 m. That aside, we can agree that it’s an impressive recorded value, regardless.
  4. As I’ve been discussing on Twitter, it’s important to recognize that the Port Fourchon measurement was an instantaneous gust and not representative of the standard three-second value. It’s just not simply the fact that it was also measured above 30 m height. Moreover, we have no idea as to the capability of said anemometer to accurately record wind speeds at such high velocities. Some might recall the 212 mph observation during hurricane Andrew that was subsequently revised to 177 mph after tunnel testing of that particular model. These important points aren’t to minimize the fact hurricane Ida was most certainly a high-end Cat 4 at landfall, but rather to view these elevated and instantaneous wind gust measurements in their proper context. All the collective data is supportive of the operational landfall intensity of 130 kt. At its peak (roughly 3.5 hours preceding landfall), I’d argue for 135 kt…based mainly on the 148 kt 700 mb FLWs measured by Recon.
  5. The most unfortunate part of Ida’s track is that it drove the highest storm surge into Grand Isle. It’s also important to note that the aborted ERC that made Ida a double-eyewall hurricane likely contributed to the devastation left in its wake.
  6. Those images look way too familiar to what I observed in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach. The bare slabs and the shredded upper-levels of some homes are eerily similar! It was every bit of a high-end category four wind producer combined with a catastrophic storm surge. Goes to show that it doesn’t technically have to be a category-five hurricane to produce catastrophic damage! I like the way 130 kt is characterized as a super Typhoon in the WPAC as a TC of such intensity is truly a “super” destructive storm.
  7. As a veteran storm chaser and one who was stranded in Mexico Beach (because I lost my car to the surge by placing myself within 400 yards of the GOM and in the RFQ of the inner-eyewall of hurricane Michael), I have very little sympathy for chasers who intentionally get too close and THEN, except others to risk their own lives to help/save them! When I made the aforementioned similar/foolish decision, I accepted responsibility for my actions and dealt with the consequences (which weren’t fun). I could be wrong, but there seems to be too many chasers trying to one-up the others and their corresponding attention-seeking, selfie-centered attitude has been leading to more of these situations. Unfortunately, I expect we’ll continue to see this occur on a more regular basis, as the years go by. To avoid any misinterpretations, I want to clarify that my issue isn’t that they chose to get that close, but rather, the expectation that someone should help them…that would require someone else to endanger their own lives in the process. P.S. Mods, please move this post to banter if you feel it belongs there, instead.
  8. Me neither! Must be a new type of differential equation. After all, it was the least favorite course I took towards obtaining my meteorological degree...aside from Calc II. Then again, I’m not sure anyone could decipher it.
  9. It’s still a little early, relatively speaking, and we’re right on schedule for a typically active hurricane season. You’ll see...the ocean and atmosphere have steadily been building the right environment, and they’re going to come.
  10. I’m also in eastern NC (Wilmington) and share the same concerns. As a result of Florence in 2018, my house sustained more than $12,000 in damage from the wind providing entry through the roof for the torrential rains to damage the sheet rock. Don’t wish such hardship on anyone else. Interestingly, Wilmington has been struck directly by the eyewall of 10 separate hurricanes and an additional TC of borderline TS/H intensity during the past 25 years...far exceeding every other town/city in the U.S., during that time. Based on all the major oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections, there’s an increased risk that there will be multiple U.S hurricane landfalls for the 6th consecutive season. If, and more likely when, they occur, I fully intend to be in the eyewall to document the brunt of their fury.
  11. I intercepted the NE eyewall (so to speak, if not technically accurate given it wasn’t a hurricane) at Horseshoe Beach, Fl. The highest wind gust was recorded up to 71 mph, with the strongest winds surprisingly being in the SE quadrant of the storm...as the winds shifted to a direct onshore flow. I chose to avoid the storm surge since I was driving my wife’s car and weren’t looking for a divorce. Here’s a brief clip of what I observed during this particular event: https://youtu.be/_oejAgsjAhM
  12. Agnes in 1972 and hurricane Donna in 1960 are the most recent to the very best of my knowledge.
  13. I'll give it another go next season. Good luck! I vote to extend the deadline another hour for windspeed, without any penalty, if he were to wish to make an entry and his preferred numbers haven’t already been taken; which I presume may be the case. ? Edit: It appears there’s still almost two hours remaining for new entries without any penalty.
  14. The list I provided was produced by meticulously researching the data from both the Wilmington, NC daily climate report as well as reviewing the track maps for the period of 1940 to the present. Here are the respective links where the aforementioned data was obtained: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.html https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nc/wilmington/KILM/date/2020-5-17
  15. Hi! I’m so sorry to hear that he and his family endured such a horrible loss. I was born thirty years (1970) after your neighbor, in Wilmington, and have been a hurricane researcher from the time I experienced my very first hurricane eyewall in 1984 (Diana). Here’s a list of all known TS’ and H’s that have made a direct hit on Wilmington, NC (1940-2020): Storm 3 (1944) Cat 1 H (eye) Storm 1 (1945) TS winds (H-offshore) Storm 2 (1946) TS Storm 7 (1949) TS Storm 3 (1952) TS Barbara (1953) TS winds (H-offshore) Carol (1954) TS winds (H-offshore) Edna (1954) TS winds (H-offshore) Hazel (1954) Cat 4 (eyewall) Connie (1955) Cat 1 Diane (1955) Cat 1 (eye) Ione (1955) Cat 2 Storm 11 (1956) TS (offshore) Helene (1958) Cat 3 (eyewall) Gracie (1959) TS (SC landfall) Brenda (1960) TS Donna (1960) Cat 2 (eyewall) Storm 6 (1961) TS Ginny (1963) TS winds (H-offshore) Dora (1964) TS Alma (1966) TS (offshore) Gladys (1968) TS winds (H-offshore) Ginger (1971) TS winds (H-north) David (1979) TS winds (H-SC landfall) Dennis (1981) TS Storm 2 (1982) STS (offshore) Diana (1984) Cat 2 (eyewall) Bob (1985) TS winds (H-SC landfall) Gloria (1985) TS winds (H-offshore) Kate (1985) TS Hugo (1989) TS winds (H-SC landfall) Gordon (1994) TS winds (H-offshore) Opal (1995) TS winds (TS-west) Bertha (1996) Cat 2 (eye) Fran (1996) Cat 3 (eye) Bonnie (1998) Cat 2 (eye) Dennis (1999) TS winds (H-offshore) Floyd (19999) Cat 2 (eye) Irene (1999) TS winds (H-offshore) Kyle (2002) TS Isabel (2003) TS winds (H-north) Charley (2004) Cat 1 (eye) Gaston (2004) TS winds (H-SC landfall) Ophelia (2005) Cat 1 (eyewall) Ernesto (2006) TS/Cat 1 (eye) Hanna (2008) TS Irene (2011) TS winds (H-offshore) Beryl (2012) TS Sandy (2012) TS winds (H-offshore) Andrea (2013) TS Arthur (2014) TS winds (H-offshore) Ana (2015) TS Hermine. (2016) TS Matthew (2016) Cat 1 (eyewall) Florence (2018) Cat 1 (eye) Michael (2018) TS winds (TS-west) Dorian (2019) TS winds (H-offshore) Isaias (2020) Cat 1 (eye)
  16. As you noted, the various banter threads are available but the actual storm threads are missing for Laura, Sally, Dorian, Michael, and Harvey...just to name the most obvious.
  17. Noticed that the hurricane Laura thread can no longer be found in this particular sub forum. Anyone know why that may be?
  18. Don’t want to monopolize the thread, but do want to personally thank all of you for the thoughtful posts regarding the video. Since I’ve yet to do so, I wish to convey my genuine appreciation for the kind words offered by both Kamu and Birds, as well! I will continue to monitor this thread...while rooting for all of you to get some additional snow this season.
  19. Hi Wentz! My wife’s parents live in Lancaster, PA...so I drove there through the night of January 31, into the morning of February 1. Took a quick nap and left their house around 1230 pm, driving through Reading and on into Allentown. From there, I was just watching the radar to see where I felt the CCB was going to pivot...which led me to Easton. You definitely picked a great location! I recall the PNS listing a 35.1” total for Mt. Arlington, NJ (which would apparently be a record for the state)...which is less than 5 miles to the NW of Dover. If accurate, it’s likely you also saw totals upwards of 30”, if not possibly a little more?
  20. Thank you very much for the kind words! It took me about an hour. I had slide way off the interstate. I deserved it since I was driving too fast for those conditions, foolishly.
  21. Hi everyone in this excellent sub forum! I enjoyed the discussion here during my recent chase event in the area. Finally put together a relatively short video summarization of that historic event; link provided below. Based on all the information I could find, it appears that the 36.1” measurement obtained in Nazareth correlates to the largest single storm total ever recorded in the Lehigh Valley.
  22. I would highly recommend those interested attend those spotter training classes. They've been around a very long time and are a huge asset to the various NWS offices. Not to be confrontational, unintentionally with anyone, getting a spotter certification doesn't automatically correspond to accurate measurements being that I've often seen spurious totals being sent to the NWS...as I'm sure many of you, too, have noticed. My guess is the human tendency for a few to exaggerate those amounts.
  23. Thank you for taking the time to post that info. For the record, I'm very familiar with how the measurements are taken as well as what's involved in being designated a "trained spotter." I used to work at the NWS myself way back in the mid '90's. Let me clarify, my own personal opinion that it's highly likely ABE received more than the official 27.3" amount is based primarily on my own observation of the snowfall rates and accumulations that occurred in Easton...while seeing similar returns on radar at ABE throughout Tuesday (2/2/21). Consequently, I can't conceptualize how ABE could've legitimately only received a total of 0.4" from midnight on 2/2/21 through 9 am on 2/3/21...despite a total of 23 "light snow" hourly obs during that time period. All that aside, I want to convey my appreciation for the excellent job you and your office did during this particular event!
  24. Just measured the current snowpack again this evening. Ironically, there is only a 1.5" reduction (1/2 of what we lost during the preceding day) despite highs above 40 and sunny skies this afternoon! Sitting at an average of 21.7" in the vicinity of my hotel here at the Nazareth/Easton border.
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