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ncforecaster89

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Everything posted by ncforecaster89

  1. ncforecaster89

    Major Hurricane Michael

    It’s conceivable that Michael attained 145 kt...as noted in the Report by Doppler radar velocity data, but I don’t see any data that argues for a higher intensity than that...unless that 152 kt SFMR reading is reliable. The rest of the data supports 140-145 kt, and I’m cool with the 140 kt intensity baring verification of the aforementioned SFMR. EDIT: Should add that I think the Report still needs to revise the central pressure at landfall. Likely was in the 916-918 mb range.
  2. ncforecaster89

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Guess everyone already knows how I feel about this important development! What I found most interesting are these passages from the TCR: "It should be noted that future revisions to the Florida landfall intensity are possible, as additional re-assessment is expected once the research on the reliability of the SFMR at these high wind speeds is complete." "The maximum real-time surface wind estimate from the SFMR was 138 kt in the south eyewall at 1706 UTC that day. However, there were missing SFMR data in the real-time transmission during that penetration of the eyewall. Re-construction of the instrument’s raw brightness temperatures during the dropout period by the NOAA AOC indicates that the maximum 10-second SFMR wind estimate was 152 kt near 1707 UTC. The SFMR winds support an intensity greater than 135 kt, especially if the 152-kt value is correct and uncontaminated by wave shoaling in water about 89 ft deep. However, there is a significant caveat regarding the SFMR data, as experience during Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria in 2017 suggests the possibility that the SFMR has a high bias at the wind speeds in question. Research to determine if this is the case is currently underway.
  3. ncforecaster89

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Not yet. The TCR for Florence hasn't been released, either. You can find all completed TCR's at the attached link...to include Michael's, once it's released to the public. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl
  4. ncforecaster89

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Based on your official source, are you 100% certain the NHC has made this decision and that it’s simply a matter of public release? As myself and a few others have been arguing, adamantly, there’s no doubt the data you noted clearly corresponds to a 140 kt intensity. That said, I will still be very pleasantly surprised if they make that adjustment...mainly because of their reluctance to make such revisions in these cases (as made clear by former NHC forecaster, Todd Kimberlain). Must admit, for a second there, I kinda wondered if your post was made on April 1st?! If this indeed comes to pass as you stated, you have gathered the scoop of the year, hands down, IMHO. Thanks for sharing! Edit: I’m guessing it will be awhile longer before we see the Report given there are still 4 other TCR’s to be released, as well. Won’t be surprised if it’s the latter part of April or even into the month of May before they release the Michael TCR.
  5. ncforecaster89

    Spring 2019 New England Banter and Disco

    Just a quick post to congratulate all the members who've had a fantastic and most deserved (after watching SNE benefit time and time again the past 5 years or so) snowfall/winter season! I enjoy big snowfall events, in general, but have to be more judicious with chases limited to historic blizzard-type events. This typically requires a chase in SNE...of which no such opportunity presented itself, this season, surprisingly. Then again, that regression to the mean was overdue considering the past 5 seasons I've been chasing in the NE. Once again, very happy for the NNE crew. Hoping next season provides another opportunity or two to visit this part of the country!
  6. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    The videos shown above are all the ones I was able to locate, online, currently. I suspect others (likely from residents in the affected areas) may ultimately be posted at a later date. As mentioned previously, I chose only to post videos that contained footage from the eyewall and/or eye of hurricane Michael...in order to condense the number of videos presented, herein. If others find this type of thread useful, I am willing to do the same for past hurricanes, as well as for those that occur in the future. For me, it just simply makes things much easier when searching for various hurricane footage that’s available on the web.
  7. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Thought it might be a good idea to create a single thread for the sole purpose of sharing video footage of hurricane Michael from 2018. With that in mind, I'm just simply going to post a link to all of the various storm chaser videos (that I'm currently aware of) and any others I find on YouTube. That said, please feel free to share any other relevant videos, here, as well...that I may have missed. Will continually update the first few subsequent posts in the thread if, and or when, I locate any additional footage, in the future. I'll begin by sharing the links to the footage of the AmericanWX forum members first, that I know of, and subsequently list most others more randomly by how I find them listed on YT, and by the general location where they were filmed (to add more variety in the initial posts). Please note that all the footage I'm posting here, will be those that were taken directly from the eyewall, and/or eye, of the historic hurricane!
  8. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Clausen videos from Panama City, Fl:
  9. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Clayton Foy Udd Go-pro cam footage, as he drives into the “eye” near Tyndall, AFB from Destin, Fl:
  10. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Team Green (YouTube channel) in eastern Panama City Bch:
  11. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Marrah Mclain footage of eyewall in Marianna, Fl:
  12. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Derek Kemp in Panama City, Fl:
  13. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Brandon Ivey in Panama City, Fl:
  14. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Larry Posey in Panama City,Fl:
  15. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Jim Robicheaux in Panama City, Fl:
  16. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    David Baxter III in Callaway, Fl:
  17. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Jason Foster in Callaway, Fl:
  18. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Mike Killian in Panama City:
  19. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Blake Brown from Panama City Beach:
  20. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Timothy Sampley from Panama City:
  21. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Evan Hatch from Tyndall AFB:
  22. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Jim Williams livesteam from Callaway:
  23. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Florida Storm Patrol from Panama City:
  24. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Smart451cab (YouTube channel) from home in Callaway, Fl:
  25. ncforecaster89

    Hurricane Michael 2018 Videos:

    Aaron Jayjack from eastern Panama City Beach:
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