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ncforecaster89

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Everything posted by ncforecaster89

  1. It’s an acronym for the authors of a book on historical winter storms that have affected the NE U.S. In other words, It’s essentially an HECS (Historic East Coast Storm). The probability of this particular event reaching that esteemed category continues to increase, but not yet guaranteed. On a related note: we at least want to avoid an “FU” storm. Seen too many of those over the past 4 years in SNE.
  2. Getting this topic out of the storm thread. Just sharing my own personal preference for old-school football where defenses were allowed to play more physical. Same with the NBA. There’s too much of an advantage offensively in today’s game. Then again, it might be that I’m just getting older…making me “old school.”Lol. Turning 52 in May. Where has time gone? Crazy!
  3. Couldn’t agree more! I desperately want an opportunity to resume chasing an HECS or significant blizzard in SNE or even NNE. Haven’t had such an event since the four March Nor'easters of 2018.
  4. That’s why I prefer the college rules for OT, but having said that…I still think it’s MORE fair to go to the current rules after each team is guaranteed one possession, if the first team scores a TD, or go to sudden death after that process. Simply put, each team should have at least one offensive possession, no matter the procedure from there, in my own personal opinion.
  5. Of course, on the flip side, the Bucs may still be alive if they hadn’t been way too aggressive (all out blitz) on that last play to set up the game winning FG for the Rams.
  6. I agree, unfortunately. Definitely think KC is the huge favorite to win it all. Felt that way all along, but I can’t stand them, personally. Never been an Andy Reid or Tyreek Hill fan.
  7. Ironically, it’s been a horrible weekend for me, as well, watching each team I was rooting for lose on the final play of each respective game. Guess I’m going to pull for Cincy from here.
  8. The truth is, far more often than not, we go from those modeled events to literally a completely non-event…in relation to the latest GFS run posted above. Not saying it’s impossible or isn’t meteorologically plausible, but simply very low probability; albeit no less fun to look at. It’s the things “wet dreams” are made of for the weather weenie, and sometimes, dreams do come true!
  9. I completely understand why weather enthusiasts get so disappointed, and frustrated, when model trends move towards a less desirable solution. That said, I’d simply like to note that as good as computer modeling has become over the past few decades, they will never be able to 100% accurately account for all the complexities involved in the atmospheric processes that lead to such weather phenomena. With that in mind, It’s important to also remember that the significant strides we’ve made in weather forecasting over the past few decades has been the result of enhanced computer modeling…without which, forecasts would result in far greater errors.
  10. Raleigh, NC Snowstorms (1887-1947): *6.0” or greater* 02/21/1889: 10.0” 12/27-28/1892: 9.5” 01/18-19/1893: 12.0” 02/17-18/1896: 7.0” 12/02-03/1896: 7.5” 01/28/1899: 7.5” 02/11-13/1899: 17.7” 02/15-17/1902: 17.9” 02/10-11/1912: 6.5” 02/14/1913: 6.0” 02/26/1914: 7.0” 12/12-13/1917: 7.1” 01/26-27/1921: 8.3” 01/26-28/1922: 9.5” 01/09-11/1927: 7.3” 03/02/1927: 17.8” 12/17/1930: 7.0” 01/13/1933: 10.0” 03/10/1934: 8.0” 12/29/1935: 6.2” 02/06-07/1936: 8.0” 12/28/1937: 6.0” 03/24/1940: 7.0” Source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=RAH
  11. Here is a listing of all snowfalls (of at least 6”) measured at RDU…dating back to 1945: 12/09-10/2018: 8.9” 02/24-26/2015: 6.5” 12/25-26/2010: 7.1” 02/26-27/2004: 6.5” 01/02-03/2002: 10.8” 01/24-25/2000: 20.3” 02/17-18/1989: 6.2” 01/07-08/1988: 7.3” 02/06/1984: 6.9” 03/24/1983: 7.3” 01/13-14/1982: 6.0” 03/01-02/1980: 11.1” 02/18-19/1979: 10.4” 01/07-08/1973: 6.4” 03/01/1969: 9.3” 02/09/1967: 9.1” 01/25-27/1966: 9.7” 02/26/1963: 6.9” 03/02-03/1960: 7.1” 03/09/1960: 6.9” 12/11/1958: 9.1” 01/19/1955: 9.0” 01/31-02/01/1948: 9.0” 02/09-10/1948: 14.5” source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=RAH
  12. I was right in the middle of that mess from 1030 am into 630 am this morning. Took me 20 hours to travel less than 50 miles from around mile marker 106 to 156 on I-95 N (between Ladysmith and Woodbridge, VA). The predominant issue was countless tractor-trailers getting stuck and/or being unable to get traction to move on the icy roads. The secondary issue was the typical impatient and reckless drivers causing unnecessary accidents when they inevitably got stuck. This doesn’t include the few plows we saw that closed one lane by unconsciously plowing snow into said lane making it impossible for tractor-trailers to move. The other things you noted obviously contributed to this disaster, but I’m simply sharing firsthand observations that made it 10x worse.
  13. Merry Christmas to you and everyone else, here. As always, I’m spending Christmas at my wife’s family home in Lancaster.
  14. It’s not a perfect science, so it’s unlikely we’ll ever truly know the exact intensity of storms such as Irma, Michael, and Dorian. It appears that the SFMR isn’t the most reliable tool/method in determining the strength of these high-end systems. Although imperfect, flight-level Recon wind obs and dropwindsounde data (especially WL-150 winds) are far more trustworthy for assessing intensity…as a result of long-term application and research. Given the aforementioned, and the fact the SFMR measurements are the only data supportive of an intensity greater than 145 kt…it’s likely the peak surface winds were closer to 150 kt for Dorian. The same applies for Irma, albeit it actually had higher 700 mb FLWs in support of a 150 kt intensity. As well-detailed in the TCR, Michael’s peak intensity was highly likely somewhere in the 140-145 kt range…or about 5-9 kt (6-10mph) below that of Irma and Dorian, respectively. Edit: I suspect the NHC will ultimately revise the respective intensities…as a compromise between the adjusted SFMR recalibration results and the Recon data…to arrive at the following: Dorian: 155 kt Irma: 150 kt Michael: 140 kt
  15. Hi Roger! Thanks for all the work you put into this effort. Just wanted to note that all of us below the 20/9/4 numbers should be listed a position higher (e.g. after BKViking, since they have the same forecast as WxWatcher007). By counting both, as equal, we get unfairly knocked down a place…due to our efforts to provide a distinct forecast from everyone else. Edit: This post isn’t meant to disparage BKVing and it’s not a big deal, necessarily. I’m just big on fairness in general.
  16. “Ida” is a prime example of why I wish the NHC would add the descriptive term of “Super” for major hurricanes with a MSW of 130 kt or greater…similar to the WPAC. Reasoning being there is a significant difference in the ferocity of the wind and its destructive ability at these velocities in comparison with those at the lower-end of the Cat 4 range.
  17. To better understand (determine) how that 223 mph instantaneous wind gust corresponds to a one-minute sustained wind speed at standard height…one can use the power law to covert from that 30 meter height to 10 meters elevation. First, we need to convert the instantaneous gust to a 1-minute sustained wind speed. Extensive research https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/12031496/estimating-3-second-and-maximum-instantaneous-gusts-from-1-/3 has shown that an instantaneous wind gust can be converted to a 1-minute wind speed by a factor of 1.45. In this case, it would translate to 154 mph. Then, we’ll simply use the power law equation to extrapolate the aforementioned 154 mph wind at 30 m to a 10 m equivalent. To do so accurately, you need to utilize the appropriate surface roughness length. In this case, I’m using 0.10 for open ocean. This converts to a 139 mph (120 kt) one minute sustained wind value. That’s a very impressive in-situ measurement to be captured at landfall in Port Fourchon. Given its highly unlikely that any anemometer would be positioned perfectly to capture the highest wind speed in the eyewall, and taking into account that the strongest winds were likely found just to the E…this measurement provides excellent additional support for the operational intensity of 130 kt.
  18. You’re correct, as I totally missed that particular season and the 2015 season. That’s what I get for relying on memory lol Thus, its actually only been 6 years (feels like so much longer) since there’s been a season without an October formation. Thanks for catching my aforementioned error. Interestingly, they (2006, 2015) were both El Niño years, as well.
  19. Very true, Amped! Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30. 1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin TC. I’d be very surprised if the season concludes without at least one additional TS. In contrast, I’ll be very surprised if the U.S. mainland experiences another hurricane landfall, however.
  20. Although 5 of the 6 U.S. hurricane landfalls were intensifying or steady-state at landfall…only two actually had well-defined eyewall structure (Hanna & Laura)…as you alluded to. Laura the best of those six:
  21. Personally, I’d rate them in the following order (2002-2021): (U.S. mainland only) 2005: (6 H strikes/4 MHs/Katrina) 2004: (6 H strikes/3 MHs/Charley) 2017: (3 H strikes/2 MHs/Harvey, Irma) 2020: (6 H strikes/3 MHs/Laura) 2018: (2 H strikes/1 MH/Michael) 2021: (2 H strikes/1 MH/Ida) 2008: (3 H strikes/0 MHs/Ike) 2012: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Sandy) 2016: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Matthew) 2003: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Isabel) 2011: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Irene) 2014: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Arthur) 2002: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Lili) 2019: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Dorian) 2007: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Humberto) 2006: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Ernesto) 2010: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Earl) 2015: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Bill) 2009: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Ida) 2013: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Andrea) The list is naturally subjective. Speaking of subjective analysis, you’ll notice the inclusion of “Sally” as a MH (in the totals) for the 2020 season, as the data supports a 100 kt landfall intensity…in my personal opinion. It’s also important to note that “Ernesto” of 2006 may have actually achieved a 65 kt Cat 1 intensity, at landfall, as mentioned in its TCR. Also, H Earl of 2010 brought HF winds to the Outer Banks of NC even though it passed 90 nm offshore to the E. Gave 2015 the edge over the subsequent two seasons, shown on the aforementioned list, in deference to the historic flooding that occurred in SC…caused in part by MH Joaquin. Edit: Could possibly move 2002 above 2014 considering the significant impact of TS Isidore.
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