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ncforecaster89

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  1. That’s amazing that you have experienced, firsthand, the vast majority of the greatest seasons of snowfall in the Philadelphia region. Thank you for the kind words as well.
  2. Only if it ultimately leads to a “happy ending!”
  3. Hi Everyone, I’m in the exhaustive and tedious process of compiling and tabulating historical/climatological “snowfall” data for numerous U.S. eastern cities. This is the first one I’ve completed thus far, and thought you might find it as interesting as I do, myself. Here’s to hoping you can add to the following listing of the “top ten greatest individual snowstorms” before this particular season comes to a conclusion. 1) Philadelphia, PA: A) Latest 30 year seasonal snowfall average: 1994-2023: 23.0” (689.1”) Average seasonal snowfall for full period of record: 1885-2023: 22.8” (3163.4”) C) Top ten snowiest seasons: 2009-2010: 78.7” 2013-2014: 68.0” 1995-1996: 65.5” 1898-1899: 55.4” 1977-1978: 54.9” 1960-1961: 49.1” 2002-2003: 46.3” 1917-1918: 44.9” 1966-1967: 44.3” 1981-1982: 43.9” D) Top five least snowiest seasons: 1972-1973: Trace 2022-2023: 0.3” 2019-2020: 0.3” 1997-1998: 0.8” 1949-1950: 2.0” E) Top ten greatest individual snowstorms: 1. 31.0” (Jan. 6-8, 1996) 2. 28.5” (Feb. 5-6, 2010) 3. 23.2” (Dec. 19-20, 2009) 4. 22.4” (Jan. 23-24, 2016) 5. 21.2” (Feb. 11-12, 1983) 6. 21.0” (Dec. 25-26, 1909) 7. 19.4” (April 3-4, 1915) 8. 18.9” (Feb. 12-14, 1899) 9. 18.7” (Feb. 16-17, 2003) 10. 16.7” (Jan. 22-24, 1935)
  4. No doubt I’m going to have to go back through each individual year to verify the accuracy of the data I compiled. Thank you so much for catching those inaccuracies. I shouldn’t have relied on second-hand sources. Simply trusted the data…as they had already compiled the yearly totals for virtually every observing site in the nation. Thereby, saving myself a tremendous amount of time. I verified their totals for my home city (Wilmington, NC) and they matched perfectly. With that, I wrongly assumed the rest of the data for the other respective cities were entirely accurate as well.
  5. Whoa! That’s a HUGE difference in totals. I relied entirely on the validity of the stats compiled at this particular website: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/philadelphia/most-yearly-snow Not sure where they got their numbers as they appear to be vastly inaccurate.
  6. Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”)
  7. Hi everyone! Thought I’d simply share some of the statistical research I’ve been conducting most recently…examining the correlation between El Niño and seasonal snowfall in the Eastern U.S. Here’s the link to the post showing how each of the 5 selected Mid-Atlantic cities all saw a VERY significant decrease in seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño episodes. https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1751700478864265580?s=20 On the flip side, a few of the largest snowstorms occurred during a strong El Niño season such as 2016 and 1983. In essence, strong El Niño seasons are generally boom or bust and highly reliant on a KU event to achieve the climatological average.
  8. Hi everyone! I pop in here occasionally whenever I’m visiting my wife’s parents and her family in Lancaster…usually around Christmas. That aside, I simply wanted to convey my great appreciation for your posts and respective first-hand updates (ground truth), so I can keep abreast on what they are experiencing there, as well. I had told them to expect 3-5”…with the potential for 6”…two days ago, and definitely hoping that verifies. If I’m not mistaken, it requires about those amounts to do good sledding. If that projection falls short, they’re going to be extremely disappointed. Feeling pretty good about it, right now, though. Hope it’s an over-performer for each of you. Thanks again, Tony
  9. Sharing some of the extensive research I’ve conducted recently regarding hurricane strikes on the U.S. mainland…for the past 150 years. Didn’t go any further back due to the likelihood of missed hurricane landfalls prior to 1877.
  10. Hi GaWx, Greatly appreciate the time and effort involved in such research. Although correct on your synopsis and the increased historical probability for a June TC/H strike on the mainland U.S. during EL Nino seasons, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that many of the seasons you listed weren’t an El Nino at the ASO tri-monthly. Those years being 1865, 1880, 1887, 1913, 1929, 1939, 1958, and 1968. That’s a very important distinction as the ASO value has shown the best correlation with effects on NATL basin TC activity and is generally used in such analysis, as a result. The main reason being attributed to the way that the atmosphere behaves as it transitions to a stronger +ENSO event through the Fall and early winter. Here is a list of all El Nino seasons (1851-2022) defined as above (with corresponding ASO value): 1852: 0.5 1855: 0.5 1864: 0.6 1877: 2.2 1884: 0.6 1885: 0.8 1888: 1.3 1896: 1.2 1899: 0.8 1900: 0.5 1902: 1.6 1904: 0.6 1905: 1.4 1914: 0.8 1918: 0.8 1923: 0.7 1925: 0.7 1930: 1.1 1940: 0.8 1941: 0.9 1951: 1.0 1953: 0.8 1957: 1.3 1963: 1.2 1965: 1.9 1969: 0.8 1972: 1.6 1976: 0.6 1977: 0.6 1982: 1.6 1986: 0.7 1987: 1.6 1991: 0.6 1994: 0.6 1997: 2.1 2002: 1.0 2004: 0.7 2006: 0.5 2009: 0.7 2015: 2.2 2018: 0.5
  11. 13/5/2. Edit: Just noticed two others posted those numbers before me. Consequently, I’m modifying it to: 13/6/2
  12. Given the option to amend my earlier forecast, I’m simply going to add one additional hurricane…as I’ve been wavering between 8 and 9, since my original post). 19/9/4
  13. Although the general perception of many are that we are trending towards warmer and less snowy winters, I’m confident you will see a change to cooler and more wintry precipitation (similar to the 1980s) once the AMO switches to the cool phase.
  14. Interestingly, that was also the case for the March 1-2, 1980 winter storm that delivered blizzard conditions to the coastlines of NC and southern VA. In it, Durham recorded 15”, while Raleigh received a total accumulation of 11.1”. Ironically, it is the winter storm event that I’ve been currently researching. Once completed, I will provide greater details regarding this historic event for the eastern parts of NC and southern VA.
  15. The next system I want to discuss was an historical winter storm (and blizzard for many areas) that delivered record snowfall accumulations, and was followed by one of the most severe cold waves the Deep South has ever endured! January 22-25, 1940 Blizzard: During the late evening hours of 1/22/1940, an area of low pressure began bringing heavy snowfall to eastern portions of Texas. Over the subsequent 60 hours, it continued its trek eastward across the Southeast U.S., before ultimately moving NE offshore of the SE coastline. In doing so, it delivered record snowfall totals to 38 separate counties, from E TX to VA…that still stand to this very day! The northern and central parts of Alabama were battered by a terrific blizzard, which set the state record for snowfall accumulation of 22” in the small town of Reform. Likewise, this historic winter storm/blizzard remains the storm of record for the cities of Atlanta, GA (8.3”), Athens, GA (9.8”), Natchez, MS (9.5”), and Richmond, VA (21.6”). Some localities in the Atlanta suburbs actually saw amounts in excess of 10”. Although it was a generational weather event for the majority of the Southeastern states, the absolute brunt of its effects were felt in the southern and central portions of Virginia. There, the exceptionally heavy snowfall rates, strong winds, and very low temperatures combined to produce blinding white-out conditions and a tremendous blizzard! Peak wind gusts were recorded at 62 mph and sustained gale-force winds were widespread across this entire region…leading to wind chill values of well below zero in many locations. The hardest hit area was centered on Farmville, VA…where two feet of snow and drifts upwards of 6 feet were observed! Bitter Artic air was already in place preceding this epic winter storm and had set the stage for the extraordinary blizzard conditions that followed. In its aftermath, a reinforcing blast of cold, Artic air spilled down into these same localities…which even brought sub-freezing temperatures all the way down to Miami, FL! The following low temperatures were recorded as a result: Miami, FL: 28° * Tallahassee, FL: 15° Alexandria, LA: 8° Houston, TX: 5° * (Hobby AP) Natchez, MS: 4° Atlanta, GA: 4° Birmingham, AL: 1° Anderson, SC: 0° Dallas, TX: 0° * Calhoun Falls, SC: -2° * Hartwell, GA: -5° * Port Gibson, MS: -5° * Forest, MS: -5° * Henderson, NC: -8° * St. Joseph, LA: -8° * Salisbury, NC: -11° * Richmond, VA: -12° * Brevard, NC: -15° Farmville, VA: -16° * Blairsville, GA: -16° * *Current ‘all-time’ record lows Many rivers and streams were frozen solid throughout the Deep South, as the historic cold wave lasted for virtually the entire month of January 1940. Consequently, the period of 1/18 through 1/31, 1940 remains the lowest two-week mean average temperature ever observed in Birmingham, AL (22.5°). In all, the combination of record-setting snowfall totals, severe blizzard conditions, and extreme cold temperatures make the late January blizzard of 1940 one of the greatest (if not the greatest) winter storms to ever lay siege to the Southeast region of the United States! Snowfall Totals: Virginia: Randolph 5 NNE: 25.0” (County record) Kenbridge: 25.0” (County record) Farmville 2 N: 24.0” (County record) Bremo Bluff: 23.0” (County record) Columbia 2 SSE: 23.0” (County record) Walkerton 2 NW: 22.3” (County record) Richmond: 21.6” (County record) Danville: 20.0” Chatham: 20.0” Powhatan: 19.5” (County record) Tappahannock: 18.0” (County record) Crozier: 18.0” Appomattox: 16.0” Dalhgrens Weapons Lab: 15.3” (County record) Williamsburg 2 NW: 15.0” (County record) Hopewell: 14.3” Emporia 1 WNW: 14.2” (County record) Burkes Garden: 13.0” Lynchburg: 11.0” Pennington Gap: 10.5” Lexington: 10.1” Hot Springs: 9.0” Roanoke: 9.0” Whytheville 1 S: 9.0” Martinsville Flt: 7.5” Rocky Mount: 7.5” Pedlar Dam: 7.0” Blacksburg: 6.6” Bueno Vista: 6.0” Norfolk: 5.8” Alabama: Reform: 22.0” (State record) Gorgas: 18.0” (County record) Cullman (St. Bernard): 14.2” (County record) Boaz: 14.0” (County record) Valley Head: 14.0” Fayette: 14.0” Ethelsville: 14.0” Fort Payne: 13.0” Oneonta :12.5” Vernon: 12.5” (County record) Carbon Hill: 12.0” Anniston: 11.0” Winfield 2 SW: 10.1” Decatur: 10.0” Birmingham: 9.5” (snow depth of 10”) Guntersville: 9.2” Scottsboro: 9.0” Haleyville: 9.0” Gadsden: 9.0” or 12.0” ??? Leeds: 8.0” Talladega: 8.0” Clanton: 8.0” Calera: 7.1” Bridgeport 5 NW: 8.0” Huntsville: 5.5” Tuscaloosa Olive: 5.0” North Carolina: Graham 2 ENE: 18.0” Greensboro: 14.0” Asheboro 2 W: 14.0” Siler City 2 N: 12.5” Tapoco: 12.2” Henderson 2 NNW: 12.0” Chapel Hill 2 W: 12.0” Durham: 12.0” Rodman: 11.0” Albemarle: 10.0” Louisburg: 10.0” Randleman: 10.0” Hendersonville: 9.0” Shelby 2 NNE: 9.0” Tryon: 9.0” Brevard: 8.5” Mocksville 5 SE: 8.5” Murphy: 8.2” Waynesville 1 E: 7.8” Statesville 2 N: 7.0” Highlands: 7.0” Morganton: 7.0” Pisgah Forest 1 N: 7.0” Charlotte: 6.8” Arcola: 6.5” Salisbury: 6.5” North Wilkesboro: 6.5” Mt Mitchell: 6.3” Lenoir: 6.2” Jefferson 2 E: 6.0” Marion 2 NW: 6.0” Cullowhee: 6.0” Asheville: 5.8” Raleigh: 5.5” Enfield: 5.5” Mt Airy: 5.5” Gastonia: 5.5” Mississippi: Louisville: 15.0” (County record) Columbus : 14.0” (23/24) Macon 2 NE: 12.5” (County record) Forest: 11.5” (County record) Jackson: 10.5” (22nd/23rd) Crystal Sprg Exp: 10.5” Kosciusko: 10.0” State University: 10.0” Walnut Grove 2 S: 10.0” Natchez: 9.5” (County record) Port Gibson 1 NE: 9.0” Canton 4 N: 8.7” Tupelo: 8.0” (24th) Aberdeen: 8.0” Water Valley: 8.0” Leakesville: 7.9” Eupora 2 E: 7.5” Pontotoc: 7.5” Boonesville: 7.0” Grenada 5 NNE: 7.0” Corinth 7 SW: 7.0” University: 6.0” Greenville: 6.0” Belzoni: 6.0” Stoneville Exp S: 5.8” Moorhead: 5.4” Tennessee: Rogersville: 15.0” Loudon 1 E: 14.0” (County record) Copperhill: 12.0” (County record) Charleston: 10.2” (County record) Kingsport: 9.5” Knoxville: 9.4” Tiptonville: 9.0” (County record) Chattanooga: 8.2” Gatlinburg: 8.0” Monteagle: 7.1” Savannah 6 SW: 7.0” Selmar: 7.0” Bristol: 6.0” Greenville: 6.0” Crossville: 6.0” Monterey: 6.0” Sewanee: 6.0” Murfreesboro 5 N: 5.9” Covington 3 SW: 5.5” Lewisburg: 5.5” Mc Minnville: 5.0” Kingston: 5.0” Bolivar water works: 5.0” Dickson: 5.0” (snow depth on 23rd) Jackson Exp station: 5.0” Cookeville: 5.0” Nashville: 4.9” Georgia: Dalton: 14.5” (County record) Chickamauga: 13.5” (23rd) Summerville: 13.0” (County record) Dahlonega 4 WSW: 12.5” Cornelia: 11.2” (County record) Gainesville: 11.0” Cumming 2 N: 10.8” (County record) Taylorsville: 10.5” Rome: 10.5” Atlanta Kirkwood: 10.0” (County record) Norcross: 10.0” (County record) Carlton Brg: 10.0” (County record) Athens: 9.8” (County record) Cedartown: 9.5” Clayton: 9.5” Newnan 5 N: 9.0” (County record) Cartersville: 8.5” Atlanta: 8.3” (County record) Toccoa: 8.2” Hartwell: 7.5” Carrollton: 6.8” Ellijay: 6.5” Blairsville Exp: 6.0” Talbotton: 4.0” Sparta: 4.0” (County record) Louisiana: St Joseph 3 N: 10.8” (County record) Tallulah: 9.1” Alexandria: 8.2” De Ridder: 8.0” Calhoun Res station: 7.0” Leesville: 6.5” Natchitoches: 6.5” Lake Providence: 6.0” Bastrop: 5.3” Logansport: 3.8” Baton Rouge: 3.5” Lake Charles: 3.4” South Carolina: Anderson: 9.5” Walhalla: 9.0” Clemson: 8.5” Caesars Head: 8.0” Santuck: 7.2” Ware Shoals: 7.1” Greenville: 6.9” Calhoun Falls: 6.4” Catawba: 6.0” Fort Mill 4 NW: 6.0” Laurens: 6.0” Chester 1 NW: 6.0” Woodruff: 5.8” Chesnee 7 WNW: 5.0” Texas: Bon Weir: 8.0” (County record) Lufkin Angelina AP: 5.0” Dallas: 4.0” Longview: 4.0” Center: 4.0” Dialville 2 W: 4.0” Tyler: 3.5” Houston: 3.0” Henderson: 3.0” Gilmer 4 WSW: 3.0” Marshall: 3.0” Mt Pleasant: 3.0” References: NCDC Winter Weather Extremes: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/FL/1 NWS Local Climate Data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=akq PlantMaps (.com) Record Temp Data: https://www.plantmaps.com/virginia-record-high-and-low-temperature-map.php WKRN (Nashville, TN) article on frozen River: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/special-reports/why-doesnt-the-cumberland-river-freeze-over-anymore/amp/ AlabamaWx Weather Blog Article: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=784 Additional Reading: Atlanta Journal Constitution Article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/news/local/atlanta-worst-snowstorm-wasn-snowmageddon-snowjam-the-blizzard/S15Wm9pP966z5sCr5Ri6XL/%3foutputType=amp Farmville Herald Article: https://www.farmvilleherald.com/2020/12/the-great-blizzard-of-1940-stranded-by-snow-and-saved-by-a-mule/
  16. I’m currently completely extensive research into one of the most extreme blizzards to ever impact the Southeastern states of the U.S. An event that still holds the snowfall of record in numerous counties from E TX to VA. Consequently, I look forward to sharing the details of this truly historic storm system in the coming days. In the meantime, I want to wish each member of our sub forum a wonderful rest of the weekend! Tony
  17. I’ll begin with a reminder that “It’s not over until it’s over”… as those who bore witness to a major winter storm during the early Spring of 1983, can attest. March 24-25, 1983: Thus far, I’ve had difficulty finding details regarding this particular storms development and the specific track of the surface low as it moved briskly NE off the SE coastline. That aside, it was a major winter storm that delivered snow totals of 10-12” to a few locations in GA, SC, and NC. In addition, portions of East Central AL saw amounts up to 6”. Due to its precise track and rapid intensification, the coastal plain of NC received the brunt of the storm. Thundersnow accompanied the heaviest rates and wind gusts of 50-70 mph were fairly common along the shoreline. A peak wind gust of 87 mph was recorded in Carteret County. These strong winds combined with the heavy, wet snow to cause numerous downed trees, widespread power outages, and even some sporadic structural damage. Snowfall Totals: North Carolina: Tarboro, NC: 12.0” Charlotte, NC: 10.3” Edenton, NC: 10.3” Lumberton, NC: 10.0” Mt. Mitchell, NC: 9.0” Tryon, NC: 8.0” Clinton, NC: 8.0” Raleigh, NC: 7.3” Albemarle, NC: 7.2” Elizabeth City, NC: 7.0” Concord, NC: 7.0” Wilson 3 SW, NC: 7.0” Smithfield, NC: 7.0” Greenville, NC: 6.9” Longwood, NC: 6.0” Jackson Springs 5 WNW, NC: 6.0” Ft. Bragg, NC: 6.0” Asheboro, NC: 5.6” Kinston, NC: 5.5” Fayetteville, NC: 5.0” Laurinburg, NC: 5.0” Highlands, NC: 5.0” Washington, NC: 5.0” Wilmington, NC: 5.0” (4.2” at the airport) South Carolina: Catawba, SC: 10.0” Greenville, SC: 9.3” Gaffney 6 E, SC: 8.0” (snow depth on 25th) Santuck, SC: 8.0” Myrtle Beach, SC: 7.0” Antreville, SC: 7.0” Pickens, SC: 7.0” Chester, SC: 7.0” Calhoun Falls, SC: 7.0” Ware Shoals, SC: 7.0” Wallhalla, SC: 6.0” West Pelzer, SC: 5.0” Georgia: Elberton, GA: 10.0” (snow depth on 25th) Athens, GA: 8.7” Atlanta, GA: 7.9” Jonesboro, GA: 6.5” (25th, no data on 24th) Blairsville, GA: 5.5” Alabama: Ashland 3 ENE: 5.8” Heflin, AL: 5.5” Lafayette, AL: 5.0” (snow depth on 24th) References: NC State Climate Office https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=104 NWS Climate Database https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ilm
  18. Hi everyone, Thought I’d create a catch-all thread to post, and discuss, some of the most significant winter storms to affect the Southeast U.S. states. With that in mind, I intend to share details regarding many of the historic snow storms that have battered the SE…dating as far back as the 19th century. Moreover, I look forward to reading first-hand accounts of the most memorable events you’ve experienced, first-hand.
  19. It does suck, no doubt. But, I’m fully expecting subsequent seasons to produce a reversion to the mean. That’s the way I’m choosing to look at it…and will be eagerly looking forward to seeing its manifestation!
  20. Completely understand the frustration, but I’m a firm believer that any weather event that has occurred in the past will materialize again at some point in the future. Moreover, I suspect it’s also only a matter of time before we return to a more productive climate state (e.g, a cycle similar to the 1980’s). Even so, one still needs to keep things in their proper perspective, given that we do actually live in the “southeast.” For just me personally, I can appreciate that 6” plus events are so relatively rare, as it enhances the significance of them…when they do occur.
  21. This delivered some of the best blizzard conditions I’ve documented on the South coastal areas of Massachusetts. I’ll have to upload that footage at some point to share, here. Was at Plymouth Harbor for that one.
  22. This particular blizzard stands out to me as being one of the most dynamic (electric) systems I’ve experienced, personally. Not only did CT see widespread thundersnow, but I actually documented the occurrence multiple times in both Providence, RI and in Plymouth, MA. A very underrated storm!
  23. 29°f light snow 0.9” measured at car dealership in Providence, RI Still driving to Plymouth, MA during this overnight. Will decide after sunrise if or when I might relocate from there.
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