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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    INKAPABL OF EROR
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Burnaby, BC, Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. Please note, there is a tropical discussion forum (in the menu at "home") and a 2017 contest in that forum. Link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/#comment-4558320
  2. I just edited the instructions so that instead of NAME it now says USERNAME which is what I meant there, you folks who revealed your actual names should edit them out (not a requirement just a suggestion). Sorry about the confusion on that. My forecast will be Roger Smith ___ 19 13 6 ___ 100 _ 000 _ 110 _ 210 _ 431 _ 543 _ 432 _ 210 _
  3. Provisional scoring for May 2017 Rather early but in case you're wondering how the current provisionals score (see previous post), these would be the scores ... expect some ongoing changes as this table is edited each time a provisional changes. Scores at this point are fairly close and Tom leads this portion of the contest. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___east____ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL Tom ___________________98 _ 96 _ 98 ____292 ____ 68 _ 98 _ 76 ____ 242 _____ 534 SD ____________________ 90_100_ 90 ____ 280 ____ 80 _100_ 70 ____ 250 _____ 530 Consensus ______________96 _ 96 _ 96 ____ 288 ____ 64 _ 98 _ 74 ____ 236 _____ 524 RodneyS _______________ 86 _ 92 _ 98 ____ 276 ____ 84 _ 50 _100____ 234 _____ 510 CCM ___________________96 _100 _ 86 ____ 282 ____ 60 _ 96 _ 70 ____ 226 _____ 508 dmillz25 ________________92 _ 94 _100____ 286 ____ 30 _100_90 ____ 220 _____ 506 Stebo __________________96 _ 90 _100____ 286 ____ 40 _ 96 _ 80 ____ 216 _____ 502 wxdude64 ______________ 96 _ 92 _ 88 ____ 276 ____ 76 _ 88 _ 54 ____ 218 _____ 494 blazess556 ______________84 _ 96 _ 92 ____ 272 ____ 96 _ 52 _ 68 ____ 216 _____ 488 BKViking _______________ 98 _ 96 _ 92 ____ 286 ____ 70 _ 94 _ 74 ____ 238 __ 524 ___________ (-6%) ______ 92 _ 90 _ 86 ____ 268 ____ 66 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 224 _____ 492 DonSutherland.1 _________ 80 _ 92 _ 90 ____ 262 ____ 92 _ 56 _ 70 ____ 218 _____ 480 Normal _________________70 _ 80 _ 80 ____ 230 ____ 90 _ 60 _ 90 ____ 240 _____ 470 wxallannj _______________96 _ 92 _ 56 ____ 244 ____ 48 _ 96 _ 78 ____ 222 _____ 466 hudsonvalley21 __________ 90 _ 78 _ 74 ____ 242 ____ 56 _ 88 _ 70 ____ 214 _____ 456 so_whats_happening _____ 74 _ 78 _ 94 ____ 246 ____ 48 _ 90 _ 72 ____ 210 _____ 456 neckbeard93 ____________ 78 _ 86 _ 98 ____ 262 ____ 72 _ 50 _ 64 ____ 186 _____ 448 Damage in Tolland _______ 80 _ 80 _ 58 ____ 218 ____ 74 _ 90 _ 60 ____ 224 _____ 442 RJay ___________________80 _ 70 _ 80 ____ 230 ____ 30 _ 88 _ 60 ____ 178 _____ 408 H2OTown__WX __________ 56 _ 60 _ 62 ____ 178 ____ 62 _ 94 _ 74 ____ 230 _____ 408 Roger Smith ____________ 60 _ 72 _ 80 ____ 212 ____ 54 _ 60 _ 70 ____ 184 _____ 396 Provisional scoring for May 2017, western and all nine contests FORECASTER _________ DEN_PHX_SEA ______ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank ) Normal ________________ 90 _100 _ 70 _______260_________ 690 (= 11) RodneyS _______________60 _ 96 _98 _______254 _________764 ( = 1 ) so_whats_happening ____ 58 _ 94 _ 98 _______ 250 _________ 696 (= 10) Roger Smith ___________ 54 _ 96 _ 94 _______ 244 _________ 640 (= 15) H2OTown__WX _________ 84 _ 78 _ 80 _______ 242 _________ 650 ( = t13) DonSutherland.1 ________ 92 _ 94 _ 50 _______ 236 _________ 716 (= 7 ) blazess556 _____________94 _ 90 _ 48 _______ 232 _________ 720 (= 6 ) Consensus _____________ 58 _ 80 _ 92 _______ 230 _________ 754 ( = 2) hudsonvalley21 _________52 _ 88 _ 88 _______ 228 _________ 684 ( = 11) SD ___________________ 80 _ 80 _ 60 _______ 220 _________ 750 ( = t2) dmillz25 _______________60 _ 80 _ 80 _______ 220 _________ 726 ( = 4 ) Stebo _________________90 _ 90 _ 40 _______ 220 _________ 722 ( = 5 ) Tom __________________ 48 _ 78 _ 90 _______ 216 _________750 ( = t2) BKViking ______________ 42 _ 80 _100 _ 222 ___________ (-6%) _____ 39 _ 75 _ 94 _______ 208 _________ 700 (= 9 ) CCM __________________ 66 _ 60 _ 68 _______ 194 _________ 702 (= 8 ) RJay __________________ 30 _ 70 _ 92 _______ 192 _________ 600 (= t17) wxallannj ______________ 36 _ 54 _ 94 _______ 184 _________ 650 (= t13) wxdude64 _____________ 50 _ 58 _ 72 _______ 180 _________ 674 ( = 12) Damage in Tolland _______30 _ 40 _ 92 _______ 162 _________ 604 (= 15) neckbeard93 ___________ 82 _ 32 _ 38 _______ 152 _________ 600 (= t17) ____________________________________________________ (ranks of consensus and normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters, or each other). Annual update will follow around 25th, so far it looks like the race might be tightening up as most of the higher scores this month come from the middle of the pack.
  4. Anomaly tracker will be updated for 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 and 31 days. Earlier reports can be found two posts back. ^^ _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __________ (18d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.0_ +1.2_ --1.2 ____ +1.8_ --1.6_ --0.7 __________ (21d) _______ +0.1_ --0.2_ --0.1 ____ --1.9_ +1.9_ --0.3 ____ --0.4_ --1.8_ +0.2 __________ (p28d) ______ +0.7_ +0.5_ +0.4 ____ --1.5_ +1.5_ +0.5 ____ --0.8_ --0.7_ +0.9 __________ (p31d) ______ +1.5_ +1.0_ +1.0 ____ --0.5_ +2.0_ +0.5 ____ --0.5__ 0.0_ +1.5 Record highs of 92 and 95 in BOS on 17th-18th. 92 at NYC on 18th.
  5. It's sort of like when everybody could see the Patriots would lose the Super Bowl at half time. (it's half time, wait and see)
  6. Prediction -- line of supercells will form rather late in a bowed line DDC - SPS and peak around 03z when into s/c KS to western OKC. Activity may reach F3-5 intensity. Cells will remain severe well past 06z ICT-TUL-DFW.
  7. Ontario and se MI, later n OH likely to see scattered severe storms and F1 tornado potential from developing Lake Huron squall line linking to developing cold front across Lake Michigan. London to Hamilton ON north to Stratford to Orangeville suggested tornado watch box (19z-22z).
  8. Mesoscale complex seems likely across n IL, se WI, nw IN and sw MI tonight.
  9. Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Table of entries Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far. FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SD _____________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92 DonSutherland.1 __________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87 blazess556 _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88 RJay ____________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95 Tom ____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96 so_whats_happening _______102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94 Roger Smith ______________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120 _ 100 dmillz25 _________________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95 Neckbeard93 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89 Consensus (average) _______101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98 Stebo ___________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92 BKViking _________________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96 Damage in Tolland _________100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94 CCM ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93 RodneyS __________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92 H2O_Town__Wx ___________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87 wxallannj _________________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94 Max to date ___________ 93 __ 92 __ 95 ____ 87 __ 90 __ 91 ____ 86 _ 108 _ 81
  10. After reviewing how the last two contests went, I will use the same format as last year. Here's the simplified version of how to enter: 1. Enter your seasonal forecast (named storms / hurricanes / major hurricanes) in this thread before 06z June 1st, with 1% per day reductions in score for late entries. This portion of the contest is worth 50% of the total score but will also be tabulated in order of finish. Please note that in April, Tropical Storm Arlene made the count for 2017 1/0/0 before you even enter, so factor that into your prediction. Any storms that are named in May will also count towards the seasonal total but not the monthly portion of the contest. If you enter before a named storm is declared in May, either edit your post, or allow me to add the results of the named storm to your prediction (most people ensure that their seasonal forecast is the sum of their monthly forecasts). 2. If you want to enter a specific June forecast and other months later in the year, add those to your seasonal. Last year, I think all but one contestant entered all of their months in advance and one or two adjusted during the contest. One never entered any monthlies and was assigned a pro-rated version of the contest normal. NOV-DEC will count as one forecast, so you can enter monthlies for JUN, JUL, AUG, SEP, OCT and NOV-DEC. If you do not enter monthlies, you will be assigned provisional but fully-scoring estimates based on your seasonal weighted from this "contest normal" which is adjusted from last year which already had Alex and Bonnie, as Bonnie 2016 = Arlene 2017, the contest normal is set at last year's 16/8/3 minus 1/1/0 for Alex. The seasonal contest normal is set at 15/7/3. This is adjusted from the 1989-2016 average of 14/7/3. It will be adjusted again if necessary by whatever may happen later in May. _________________________ SEASON __ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2016____ 15_7_3 __ 100 _ 000__100__100__421__531__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) Your assigned monthlies will be adjusted from these as required, and you will see them in the table of forecasts -- if your June forecast does not match the provisional then the other months will not be adjusted, so your monthlies might not add up. Some of you will probably want to enter each month like last year, and you only need to do that if you don't want to use the already posted provisional. 3. Then if you want to update your monthly forecasts to fit your own estimate, the table will change to reflect your forecasts, but future provisionals will continue to appear unchanged and your ongoing total may continue to be different from your seasonal as a result. There is no requirement for monthly entrants to match their seasonals and monthlies. There will not be any scoring adjustments available for seasonal updates, you can make them, but the contest will not award any different scores for them. 4. Seasonal forecasts are scored from a maximum of 50 points, reduced by the average of one point per error in each category plus that number squared. Example, you predict 11/6/2 and reality is 14/7/4. You then lose (3+9)/2 or 6 points for your named storms, (1+1)/2 or one point for your hurricanes and (2+4)/2 or 3 points for your major hurricanes. Your score is then 50-6-1-3 or 40. 5. Monthly forecasts are scored the same way as above from totals available of 4 (June), 6 (July), 12 (August), 16 (September), 10 (October) and 2 (Nov-Dec) except that June, July and Nov-Dec error reductions are divided by two (e.g., if the normal method would give you 3.0 out of 6.0 for July, the adjusted method gives you 4.5. Monthly forecasts that you submit are subject to 1% reductions for every 3h late (the deadline is 03z of 1st each month except for June 06z). These late penalties will be doubled as soon as a named storm exists in the month in question. The June deadline, however, may be extended slightly to encourage more entries unless named storms are imminent. Expect an absolute cutoff by end of June 3rd with penalties after that. The best entry method is to copy this template and add in your numbers (and name) User Name ___ Seasonal (xx/xx/x) __ APR 1/0/0 _ MAY 0/0/0 _ JUN x/x/x _ JUL x/x/x _ AUG x/x/x _ SEP x/x/x _ OCT x/x/x _ NOV-DEC x/x/x FAQ _ Should I include any May named storm in my seasonal forecast? __ Yes, you are basically forecasting the normal season plus the count for May (which is currently 0/0/0) and you should also include Arlene (1/0/0) from April 2017. What if there's a named storm in May after I enter? __ If you don't edit in that change, I will edit it into your forecast by adding 1/0/0 to your seasonal forecast; if you want to stay at the original prediction despite the May storm and your monthly forecasts as submitted, edit in that request. Nothing gets tabulated until June 4th. What if I (or the NWS) forecast a range? __ The contest will take the median of your various ranges and score those only. If you want to give decimals, we'll score from those. What if I report on a forecast from elsewhere? __ Unless you are involved in making that forecast, then we'll score it but it won't count in the standings. If you are involved in it and want to enter it, make it clear that it's your personal entry. What month does each named storm belong to? __ In this contest, each named storm belongs to whatever month it was first named in (according to the NWS conventions as to time zones etc). Then whatever that storm goes on to do will belong to that same month. So for example, a tropical storm named on Aug 31 will count in the August forecast for all of its exploits as a hurricane or major hurricane in September. The timing of any given storm receiving a number but not a name is irrelevant to the contest. As with last year, where there was one storm that had its hurricane phase in a different month than its tropical storm phase, an alternate scoring table was posted and the same entry won either way. _______________________________________________________________ Good luck. Defending champ is Ohiowx. In 2015 it was Troy1234 with Stebo the winner in 2014. CSU forecast is 11/4/2. I will assign some monthly values to that one scaled down from contest normals. The NHC forecast will be entered as well, when I get the details.
  11. Early reports after five, ten, twelve and fifteen days ... ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ________ (5d) _______ +4.6_ +1.1_ --2.4 ___ --6.8_ --2.9_ --3.2 ___ --2.3e_+6.7_ +2.8 ________ (10d) ______ --0.7_ --2.3_ --2.8 ___ --6.6_ --2.4_ --3.3 ___ +2.8_ --0.2_ +2.1 ________ (12d) ______ --2.0_ --2.7_ --3.3 ___ --5.5_ --1.2_ --2.3 ___ +2.5_ --0.2_ +1.1 ________ (15d) ______ --2.3_ --3.5_ --4.0 ___ --3.4_ --0.3_ --2.2 ___ +3.6_ --0.2_ --0.1 ________ (p22d) _____ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.2_ +1.9__ 0.0 ___ +1.2_ --1.5_ +0.4 ________ (p31d) _____ +0.5__ 0.0__ 0.0 ___ --0.5_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +0.5_ --1.0_ +1.5 ... next update after 18 days in a new post. Phoenix 108 F on 5th, then only 74 F on 8th.
  12. Additional snowfalls in May MQT 0.9" on 2nd, total now 154.0 contest total now 726.4" ... contest summaries have been updated
  13. The contest is more or less finished, I believe, although further snowfall at MQT is likely this month. The table in the previous post shows the totals at all stations at the end of April. Previous posts show the contest standings and a few other factoids, and it can be seen that contest leader Slow Poke has a lead (in terms of total error amounts) of almost 80" over nearest pursuer Buffalo Weather. They both have small amounts left to "use up" at MQT after which third place Ontario snow lover would start gaining on both of them as that forecaster has a lot more left to use up. So the contest essentially hinges on how much further snow will fall at MQT, since I would imagine that all other locations have probably finished for their seasons (APN, GRB and one or two others could conceivably add small amounts). Any further snowfalls will be reported in a new post and the previous post is retired to capture the end of April status, but rather than an entire new table, I will just show MQT and contest totals as they change, adding any other stations that report new snowfalls. The season runs to June 30th at which point the contest will be final. I don't know if MQT has recorded any June snowfalls in recent years, they do happen in northern Ontario from time to time.
  14. Table of forecasts for May 2017 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ____________ +3.5_ +2.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +4.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +0.2_ +1.8 so_whats_happening _____ +2.8_ +2.1_ +1.3 ___ +2.1_ +2.5_ +1.9 ___ +1.6_ --0.3_ +1.4 neckbeard93 ____________ +2.6_ +1.7_ +1.1 ___ --1.9_ --0.5_ +2.3 ___ --1.4_ +3.4_ --1.6 RJay ___________________+2.5_ +2.5_ +2.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.6_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.9 hudsonvalley21 __________ +2.0_ +2.1_ +2.3 ___ +1.7_ +1.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.9_ +0.6_ +0.9 SD ____________________ +2.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.5_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ --0.5 dmillz25 ________________+1.9_ +1.3_ +1.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 Stebo __________________+1.7_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.8_ --0.5 ___ --1.0_ --0.5_ --1.5 wxdude64 ______________ +1.7_ +1.4_ +0.4 ___ +0.7_ +2.6_ +2.8 ___ +2.0_ +2.1_ +0.1 Consensus ______________+1.7_ +1.2_ +0.8 ___ +1.3_ +1.9_ +1.8 ___ +1.6_ +1.0_ +1.1 BKViking ___ (-6%) ______ +1.6_ +1.2_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.7_ +1.8 ___ +2.4_ +1.0_ +1.5 Tom ___________________+1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9 ___ +1.1_ +1.9_ +1.7 ___ +2.1_ +1.1_ +2.0 CCM ___________________+1.3_ +1.0_ +0.3 ___ +1.5_ +1.8_ +2.0 ___ +1.2_ +2.0_ +3.1 wxallannj _______________+1.3_ +0.6_ --1.2 ___ +2.1_ +2.2_ +1.6 ___ +2.7_ +2.3_ +1.2 RodneyS ________________+0.8_ +0.6_ +1.1 ___ --1.3_ --0.5_ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +0.2_ +1.4 blazess556 ______________ +0.7_ +0.8_ +0.6 ___ --0.7_ --0.4_ --1.1 ___ --0.2_ +0.5_ --1.1 DonSutherland.1 _________+0.5_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ --0.9_ --0.2_ --1.0 ___ --0.1_ +0.3_ --1.0 Damage in Tolland _______ +0.5__ 0.0_ --1.1 ___ --1.8_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +3.0_ +1.9 Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 H2OTown__WX ___________--0.7_ --1.0_ --0.9 ___ +1.4_ +1.7_ +2.8 ___ +0.3_ +1.1_ +0.5 With 18 forecasts (plus Normal) the median for Consensus is average of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts. Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, and when Normal is lowest, it changes color to purple from its usual green. This month we have a few below normal forecasts for each location. Also, welcome to CCM. ... The seasonal max forecasts will be tabulated on the 16th, feel free everyone to edit or add your forecasts by end of 15th, I won't be gathering these until the 16th so no particular need to mention an edit. As to the forecasts, those are already cross-checked now they are in a table.
  15. All scoring has been updated except for DCA as they are late reporting a final anomaly. My provisional of +7.0 is not likely to change much, and as that's outside our forecast range, the scores won't change except slightly for anyone above +1.8, so check back but don't expect more than a ripple of 1-2 point changes here and there. (edit May 2nd) _ The tables were upgraded to final as DCA just reported in with +7.0 (CLM document confirms this). Snowfall contest was recently updated in the March thread, and a final report will appear in the May thread.