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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    FREE SAMPLE ONLY $29.95
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Burnaby, BC, Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. A table for updated annual scoring will be posted here in a few days, but with the relatively low scoring of the leaders, the race has tightened up (provisionally) -- for each category, these are the current scores of the long-term active participants. "ORIGINAL SIX" (east-central) ___ WESTERN _______________ ALL NINE 1. RJay ________ 3648 ________ 1. RJay ________ 2245 ____ 1. RJay ___________5893 2. DonSutherland_3586 ________ 2. RodneyS _____ 2235 ____ 2. DonSutherland __ 5704 3. BKViking _____ 3524 ________3. wxallannj _____ 2211 ____ 3. wxallannj _______5701 4. Consensus ___ 3520 ________ 3. Consensus ____ 2230 ____ 2. Consensus ______5740 4. wxallannj ____ 3490 ________4. DonSutherland__2118 ____ 4. RodneyS ________5621 5. Tom ________ 3393 ________5. Roger Smith ___ 2100 ____ 5. BKViking ________5567 6. Dmillz25 _____ 3390 ________t6. BKViking ______2043 ____ 6. Tom __________ 5377 7. RodneyS _____3386 ________t6. wxdude64 ____ 2043 ____ 7. SD ____________ 5372 8. SD __________3383 _______ 8. SD ___________ 1989 ____ 8. dmillz25 ________ 5369 9. hudsonvalley21_3340 ______ 9. Tom __________1984 ____ 9. wxdude64 ______ 5329 10 wxdude64____ 3286 ______10 Dmillz25 _______1979 ____10 hudsonvalley21 ___5317 11 Normal ____ 3276 _____13 Normal _____ 1880 ___ 12 Normal _______ 5156 11 Roger Smith __ 3063 ______11 hudsonvalley21_ 1977 ___11 Roger Smith______5163 12 Neckbeard93__ 2965 ______12 so_whats_hap _ 1968 ___12 so_whats_hap ___ 4888 13 so_whats_hap_ 2920 ______13 Damage in T ___ 1836 ___13 Neckbeard93 ____4711 14 Stebo _______ 2802 ______ 14 Neckbeard93 ___ 1746 __ 14 Damage in T ____ 4475 15 Damage in T__2639 _______15 H2OTown_wx __ 1663 ___15 Stebo __________4406 16 H20Town_wx _2367 ______ 16 Stebo ________ 1604 ___ 16 H2OTown_wx ___ 4030
  2. Provisional scoring for November 2017 This table will be updated each time provisionals (shown in the post above) are adjusted. FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTALS_ wxude64 ____________________ 54 _ 42 _ 76 ___ 172 ___ 86 _ 86 _ 26 ___ 198 ____370 RodneyS ____________________ 66 _ 38 _ 32 ___ 136 ___ 44 _ 94 _ 92 ___230 ____ 366 Tom ________________________68 _ 64_ 86___ 218 ___ 44 _ 84 _ 16 ___ 144 ____ 362 SD _________________________ 70 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 210 ___ 40 _ 80 _ 20 ___ 140 _ 350 __________ (-7%) ____________ 65 _ 56 _ 74 ___ 195 ___ 37 _ 74 _ 19 ___ 130 ____ 325 H2OTown__wx _______________ 48 _ 50 _ 60 ___ 158 ___ 14 _ 92 _ 34 ___ 140 ____ 298 dmillz25 _____________________40 _ 34 _ 36 ___ 110 ___ 70 _ 90 _ 20 ___ 180 ____ 290 so_whats_happening __________ 32 _ 38 _ 54 ___ 124 ___ 14 _ 86 _ 42 ___ 142 ____ 266 Roger Smith _________________ 60 _ 60 _ 66 ___ 186 ___ 06 _ 64 _ 08 ___ 078 ____ 264 ___ Consensus _______________ 40 _ 36 _ 38 ___ 114 ___ 14 _ 92 _ 42 ___ 148 ____ 262 Neckbeard93 ________________ 42 _ 18 _ 34 ___ 094 ___ 30 _ 82 _ 64 ___ 176 _ 270 _______________ (-9%) ______ 38 _ 16 _ 31 ___ 085 ___ 27 _ 75 _ 58 ___ 160 ____ 245 wxallannj ___________________ 34 _ 22 _ 42 ___ 098 ___ 00 _ 68 _ 54 ___ 122 ____ 220 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 28 _ 14 _ 28 ___ 070 ___ 12 _ 72 _ 64 ___ 148 ____ 218 BKViking ____________________30 _ 18 _ 28 ___ 076 ___ 02 _ 90 _ 42 ___ 134 ____ 210 DonSutherland.1 ______________10 _ 08 _ 22 ___ 040 ___ 06 _ 32 _ 86 ___ 124 ____ 164 RJay _______________________ 10 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 020 ___ 00 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 140 ____ 160 SnoSki14 ____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 ___ 10 _ 60 _ 40 ___ 110 ____ 110 ___ Normal __________________ 90 _ 80 _90____ 260 ___40 _60_ 80___ 180 ____ 440 Provisional scoring for Nov 2017 western and all nine contests FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank ) wxallannj _________________90 _ 40 _ 52 _____ 182 _________ 402 (= 5) SD ______________________ 60 _ 30 _ 90 _ 180 ____________ (-7%) _______ 56 _ 28 _ 84 _____ 168 _________ 493 (= 3) RodneyS _________________ 70 _ 56 _ 30 _____ 156 _________522 (= 1) wxdude64 ________________ 00 _ 40 _ 98 _____ 138 _________ 508 (= 2) ___ Normal ___________ 40 _ 00 _ 80 ____ 120 _______ 480 (= 4) Roger Smith ______________ 10 _ 40 _ 64 _____ 114 _________ 378 (= 7) Tom _____________________36 _ 04 _ 74 _____ 114 _________ 476 (= 4) BKViking _________________ 48 _ 00 _ 58 _____ 106 _________ 316 (=11t) Consensus ________________48 _ 06 _ 52 _____ 106 _________ 368 ( =8) RJay ____________________ 50 _ 00 _ 50 _____ 100 _________ 260 (=13) hudsonvalley21 ____________48 _ 06 _ 46 _____ 100 _________ 318 (=10) H2OTown_wx _____________28 _ 06 _ 66 _____ 100 _________ 398 (= 6) Neckbeard93 ______________60 _ 00 _ 46 _ 106 _____________ (-9%) ______55 _ 00 _ 42 _____ 097 _________ 342 (= 9) so_whats_happening _______ 28 _ 08 _ 50 _____ 086 _________ 352 (= 8) DonSutherland.1 ___________62 _ 00 _ 18 _____ 080 _________ 244 (=14) SnoSki14 ________________ 20 _ 00 _ 20 _____ 040 _________ 150 (=15) dmillz25 __________________00 _ 20 _ 06 _____ 026 _________ 316 (=11t) Extreme Forecasts (provisional) DCA __ win for Tom (+1.1) and Normal, "no decision" for SD (+1.0) due to 7% score reduction NYC __ win for Tom (+0.8) and Normal BOS __ win for Tom (+0.2) and Normal. ORD __ win for wxdude64 (-2.3) IAH __ win for RodneyS (+5.4), loss for DonSutherland.1 (+5.7) (changes to win for DonS if outcome higher than +5.6) DEN __ win for wxallannj (+2.5) PHX __ win for RodneyS (+2.8) SEA __ win for wxdude64 (+1.1)
  3. Continuing on with tracking of the anomalies and projections ... ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ______ (10d) _____+2.0 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___--5.6 _+6.7 _+7.4 ____ --1.8 _+4.5 _--4.1 ______ (15d) _____--1.6 _--2.6 _--1.8 ___--5.1 _+2.8 _+6.6 ____ +1.2 _+5.6 _--1.6 ______ (20d) _____--0.9 _--2.3 _--1.8 ___--4.0 _+1.8 _+6.4 ____ +3.1 _+5.8 _--1.1 ______ (p27d) ____--1.0 _--1.7 _--1.2 ___--3.5 _+1.0 _+4.8 ____ +4.5 _+6.0 _+0.8 ______ (p30d) ____--0.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 ___--3.0 _+2.0 _+5.0 ____ +3.0 _+5.0 _+1.0 (21st) _ Basing the 28th to 30th extension on very mild 28th-29th east then turning colder, and various other signals further west from GFS. DEN will turn out considerably warmer than most of us expected, if the NWS 7-day is correct to the 27th. It may fall off as shown by 30th. Provisionals have generally fallen further outside our forecast zone which will simply shift the tables below without much change in order, so I may be placing those in order when I update them. (note: snowfall contest is closed for further entries now and a table of forecasts appears in previous post)
  4. Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0 dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 H2OTown__wx ________14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0 Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0 BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0 RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _ 105.0 SD __________________10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0_ 75.0 ____________________________________________________________________________ 15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked). Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold. Least snowfall is shown in italics.
  5. Not late, the deadline is tonight. Anyone can edit their entries for the rest of the day, I will be collecting the forecasts into a table of entries around 06z to 07z which is still before midnight where I live, but most of you might want to have a look in the morning to see the spread of snowfall predictions.
  6. I've been reading various long-range forecasts posted on this forum and while I see certain points of agreement with my outlook, I think it's fair to say that I am expecting a rather different outcome towards the end especially. My methodology is to find analogues in the data set I have compiled for Toronto and then extend out the analogues from whatever data existed for other parts of North America (as Toronto goes back to 1840, this leaves some gaps in the far west especially). There is a theory behind my technique which basically has a foundation in proposed interactions between variations in the Solar System Magnetic Field (modulations of solar wind, basically) and earth's atmosphere. I have attempted to focus on the usual climate signals that most forecasters use in their work but I continue to assume that these signals will be partially if not totally predicted through the technique (in other words, they are built into the analogue sets that the method employs). The one exception to that would be solar variability but I feel that solar activity levels are not that good an indicator year to year, they have more utility in decade-to-decade forecasting. We are clearly in a period of reduced solar activity compared to the 20th century but with long lag times of response as shown with the Dalton minimum, and year-to-year variability also shown in that era, I am not basing any of my forecast on low solar activity. The first point that I considered as a cross-check against the index values was that the autumn saw a rather rare pattern of cool September, warm October and cold November(or so it appears). The best analogues for that include (in order of correlation) 1932-33, 1879-80, 1854-55, 1894-95, 1858-59, 2007-08, 1995-96 (yeah baby), 1951-52, 1920-21, 1882-83, 1971-72, 1903-04, 1900-01, 1950-51, 1947-48, 1910-11, 1914-15, and 1871-72. This is not meant to imply that these specific signal analogues are the best analogues overall, but from the overall forecast derived it would appear that 1995-96 and 1971-72 may be leading analogues, cannot be as sure about 1854-55 with no western data. Forecast overview It is expected that anomalous ridging will develop near the Pacific coast with a cut-off low at the base of a sharp trough expected to lie north-south around 95W. The east coast will be in a mild southwest flow much of December and part of January with potential for a rapid collapse of that in favor of an extended central to eastern trough with a depressed jet stream. This will allow the current November cold pattern to fade out over the east in December, perhaps not so extensively that occasional coastal storms bring moderate snowfalls, but eventually a mid-December to early January regime of strong southwest flow from Texas to the Great Lakes will develop and it could be very mild at times east of the storm track with frequent snowstorms of blizzard intensity for the Midwest and plains states. During all of this phase, very cold air will dominate western Canada and the interior U.S. west, sometimes pushing as far south as northwest Mexico. Some time around Jan 5-10 this pattern will shift slightly east but will also see a lengthening out of the trough so that it still drops well south into Texas but then has a secondary low height anomaly near Maine and New Brunswick. This will force the storm track to run mostly offshore but with periodic lake cutters in the mix. The very cold air in western Canada will make more and more progress in detached arctic highs that track into the northeast U.S. The intensity of the western Canada cold will create numerous opportunities for snow and freezing rain storms through December and January in cities from Portland to Seattle and Vancouver. California can expect a winter of frequent low elevation rainstorms, mountain snows and periodic freezes between the storms. Even Arizona may not entirely escape the unseasonable western cold and Phoenix may see a bit of snow for the first time in several years, heavy snow is likely in Flagstaff and parts of northern New Mexico. This expanding trough will bring a stormy January and a very cold February to many parts of the eastern U.S. and Ontario-Quebec, and a milder than average trend in eastern NS and NL. There will be persistent blocking over Greenland and a mild southeast flow into the eastern Canadian arctic at times, remnants of these milder frontal systems will drop south as weak arctic reinforcements across Hudson Bay and northwest Ontario. There is potential in all of this for one or two large snowstorms to hit the northeast U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states. One energy peak around Jan 2 to 4 may be more of a transitional period and could see the last of the late December regime's mild southwesterly events, but with any luck the transition could be underway enough to make this an east coast snowstorm event. Perhaps more likely is that it would be a Midwest snowstorm followed by the full blast of wintry weather across the Great Lakes into the northeast. Then the best opportunities for east coast snowstorms would appear to be around Jan 16-18 and Jan 28 to 31. By February, I expect the storm track to be offshore so that places like s.e. VA and Delmarva to eastern New England may cash in with their biggest snowfalls of the winter. Some very cold outbreaks can be expected by February and with an active lake effect month in January snow pack should be heavy in upstate NY and northwest New England which will promote intense radiational cooling in these strong arctic highs. For Europe, I am expecting a somewhat bland start to the winter followed by an increasing tendency to cold and snow through January then a gradual return to the bland and mild scenario in February. The main point of uncertainty, I believe, is how long into January the very mild regime persists before the transition to very cold, some analogues have seen it persisting well into January (for example 1950), but the overall index values show that the trend is sharply downward by January 7th to 10th. The Jan 1996 snowstorm hit a somewhat later energy peak (from full moon and northern max) but despite the 3-4 day forward displacement of that peak this winter, it may produce, odds are that it will be more of an inland event with the Midwest and Great Lakes in a better location to cash in on the thermal gradient expected around then. I would expect the "big storm" of the eastern winter season to be one of the two later January peaks. Energy peak analysis for this winter favors intense storm development at times with some 5-7 day intervals of low energy indicating good potential for strong arctic high pressure formation west-central regions and several days maintaining over the eastern regions. So especially towards the end of winter, I am looking for a classic pattern of coastal storms separated by long cold spells.
  7. APN __ 72 ORD __ 30 CLE __ 55 CMH __ 20 DET __ 40 FWA __ 30 GRR __ 80 GRB __ 45 IND __ 11 LSE __ 34 YXU __ 80 SDF __ 10 MQT __176 MKE __ 35 MSP __ 38 MLI __ 22 PAH __ 11 PIA __ 12 STL __ 15 YYZ __ 35 Tiebreakers 1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) __ 6.5" 2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) __ 3.5" 3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) __ 17.2"
  8. Thanks Don, and just a reminder to all entrants or lurkers who would like to enter this snowfall contest, the deadline will be whenever I come into the thread on the 16th to create the table of entries, so let's say 16th 06z to be safe. Anyone can edit their current entries without making a note of it, before then, as I have not marked anything down yet. Good luck. I just added my entries to my original post. Expecting a fairly snowy winter in the Pac NW and closer to normal most other locations, thinking the winter will have some good periods but it may be a dry cold when it gets cold. There is also a snowfall contest in the Lakes/OV forum (deadline end of Nov) and off-site some of you already know about this one, the Northeast U.S. snowfall contest blog at the location indicated below, seasonal forecasts there are due Nov 30th and then they also have storm forecast contests through the season. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES
  9. If the season ends at 17 10 6 (the current count) the following scoring table would apply. This table shows a second line indicating scores if November-December produces another named tropical storm and pushes the seasonal count to 18 10 6. Only the seasonal and Nov-Dec scores would change in that second scenario. Since two forecasters have higher Nov-Dec forecasts (one that can still occur -- 2 1 0, and two that cannot -- 1 1 0 and 3 3 0), additional lines are shown for all forecasters who can score higher or above 80. The additional lines are not calculated for scores that will drop lower than 80. They will appear if these outcomes are reached, as the current scoring lines will then be revised. These additional lines show that the contest is not quite settled although Rockchalk83 will win even if there is one more two more tropical storms, unless (a) there is one or more extra storm(s) and at least one becomes a hurricane, or (b) there are three or more additional storms regardless of whether any become hurricanes. Various other forecasters can win the contest (the outcomes I have tested result in a win for your host, there could be scenarios where Windspeed or Kurzov could win) if these 2 1 0, 3 1 0 or higher scenarios occur, more because their seasonal scores will improve than any differences for Nov-Dec which only scores 2 of the 100 points in total. Basically anybody with a seasonal forecast of 17 or less cannot improve rankings with additional storms but it's likely that all would retain their rankings just with lower scores for each new storm (1887 had about five in Nov-Dec and so did 2005). 2017 Tropical Season Contest -- scores points are in bold type, seasonal forecasts are orange, monthly forecasts are in this typeface (no color). April was not scored. Actual shows the seasonal and monthly counts, and how many points are available for correct forecasts. FORECASTER ____Season__ APR__JUN ___ JUL _____ AUG ___SEP ____ OCT ____NOV-DEC____TOTAL (rank) ___ actual ____17 10 6 _50 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _200 _6.0 _442_12_443_16_ 321_10 _100_2.0 _____100.0 rockchalk83 ___18 10 5_48 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _211_5.0 _431_10 _642_11 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 _____ 87.5 (1) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (49) _________ same as above _________________________ (1.5) ___88.0 (1) _ for 2 1 0 ___________ (48) _________ same as above _________________________ (1.0) __ 86.5 (2) _ for 3 0 0 ___________ (48) _________ same as above _________________________ (0.5) __ 86.0 (1) NJwx85 ______ 16 9 3 _42 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _542_14 _320_ 9 _100_2.0 ______ 83.0 (2) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (40) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 81.5 (3) _ for 2 1 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 78.0 Roger Smith __ 19 13 6_41 _ 100_ 110_3.0 _210_5.5 _431_10 _543_15 _432_7 _210_1.0 ______ 82.5 (3) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 85.0 (2) _ for 2 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (2.0) ___ 88.5 (1) _ for 3 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 85.5 (2) _ for 3 1 0 ___________ (47) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 89.0 (1) _ for 3 2 0 ___________ (49) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 90.5 (1) Stebo _______ 16 9 4 _45 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _321_3.5 _431_10 _421_10 _211_ 8 _110_1.5 ______ 82.0 (4) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 80.5 (4) Consensus* ____ 16 8 3 _40_ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _432_14 _321_10 _100_2.0 _____ 82.0 (t-4) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 79.5 (5) Ser Pounce ___ 15 9 3 _40 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 _____ 81.5 (5) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (37) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 77.5 (6) RJay ________ 15 8 3 _ 38 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _432_14 _210_ 7_100_2.0 _____ 80.0 (6) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (35) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 76.5 (t7) NCforecaster89 _16 8 3 _40 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _541_12 _211_ 8 _100_2.0 _____ 79.0 (7) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 76.5 (t7) Contest Normal _ 15 8 3 _38 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _531_11 _321_ 10 _000_1.5 ______ 77.5 (8) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (35) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 73.5 (9) Windspeed ___ 21 11 5_38 _ 100_ 210_3.5 _320_4.0 _420_ 6 _643_13 _422_ 8 _100_2.0 _____ 74.5 (8) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (42) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 78.0 (5) _ for 2 1 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 78.5 _ for 3 0 0 ___________ (45) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 80.0 _ for 3 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 80.5 _ for 3 2 0 ___________ (45) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 79.5 dmillz25 ______ 17 7 3 _38 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _310_5.0 _421_ 8 _ 642_11 _200_ 5 _000_1.5 ______ 72.5 (9) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (37) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 70.5 (9) NWLinnCountyIA 15 6 3 _31 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _421_10 _321_10 _100_2.0 ______ 70.0 (10) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (28) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 66.5 (11) .NHC (mid-range) 14 7 3 _32 _ 100_100_3.5_ 100_5.5 _321_ 7 _531_11 _321_10_000_1.5 _____ 70.5 (10) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (28) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 65.5 (12) Yoda _________ 13 8 3 _31 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _210_5.5 _320_ 5 _432_14 _321_10 _000_1.5 _____ 69.5 (11) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 63.5 (12) ldub23 ________13 8 3 _31 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _110_5.0 _321_ 7 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 _____ 69.0 (12) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 63.0 (13) Kalasea ______ 18 13 6_43 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _421_2.5 _221_ 5 _321_ 9 _ 443_ 3 _330_0.0 ______ 66.0 (13) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 67.0 (10) _ for 2 1 0 ___________ (47) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 70.0 _ for 3 0 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 67.0 _ for 3 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 70.0 _ for 3 2 0 ___________ (48) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 72.5 Matt Petrulli ___ 15 6 2 _27 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _521_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ______ 61.5 (14) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (24) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 57.5 (14) Kurzov _______ 22 8 2_ 22 _ 100_ 110_3.0 _220_4.5 _321_ 7 _300_ 0 _211_ 8 _ 100_2.0 _____ 46.5 (15) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (27) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 51.0 (15) _ for 2 1 0 ___________ (24) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 47.5 _ for 3 0 0 ___________ (31) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 54.5 _ for 3 1 0 ___________ (27) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 50.0 _ for 3 2 0 ___________ (23) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 45.5 _ for 4 0 0 ___________ (34) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 56.5 _ for 5 0 0 ___________ (36) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 58.5 radarman _____ 12 5 2 _10 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _211_5.0 _310_ 2 _321_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ______ 38.0 (16) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (04) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 31.0 (16) pcbjr _________ 11 5 2 _ 4_ 100_ 000_2.5 _000_4.5 _210_ 0 _ 321_ 9 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 ______ 31.0 (17) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (00) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 26.5 (17) ..... CSU ________11 4 2 _ 0 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _100_5.5 _311_ 4 _421_10 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ______ 30.5 (17) _ for 2 0 0 ___________ ( 0) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 29.5 (17) _______________________________________________________________________ * Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, and the means are listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) Scores for mean _______ 42.3 __ --- ____ 2.9 ____ 5.4 ____ 7.7 ____ 12.7 ___9.3 ___ 1.8 _______ 82.1 _ for 2 0 0 ___________ (40.3) _______ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 79.3 Mean _______ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0 _______________________________________________________
  10. The contest follows the same format as the past two winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past two seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____ 2015-16 ____ 2016-17 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 ________66.4 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 ________26.1 Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 ________ 37.3 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 ________ 9.3 Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 _______ 37.9 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 _______ 18.5 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 _______ 60.1 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 _______ 53.2 Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 ________9.7 La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 _______ 42.2 London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 _______ 66.1 Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 ________ 2.7 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 ______ 154.0 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 _______ 37.6 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 _______32.0 Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 _______22.4 Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 ________1.2 Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 _______13.9 St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 ________3.2 Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 _______32.6 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM APN __ ORD __ CLE __ CMH __ DET __ FWA __ GRR __ GRB __ IND __ LSE __ YXU __ SDF __ MQT __ MKE __ MSP __ MLI __ PAH __ PIA __ STL __ YYZ __ Tiebreakers 1. December 2017 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2018 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2018 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. Entries will be accepted until end of the day Thursday, Nov 30th (2359 CST). You can edit entries before that time as the table of entries will be done in early December (using an excel table format). Good luck !! Late entries (Dec 1 to 7) will be scored but cannot place higher than 6th, enter for the fun of it if you want though. Entries that appear in the thread after Dec 8 will not be scored.
  11. Interesting, all four hit the first frost on a previous evening to a record or near-record low after quite a mild autumn. My big mistake was to forget about the contest until after the deadline, otherwise I might have had a top 50 finish.
  12. Here's our first look at the anomalies and projections ... expect the eastern values to drop sharply after today with record low readings reported (Central Park broke a record for Nov 11th from 1933 which came before some notable record lows in late Dec 1933 and through Feb of 1934). ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ____ ORD _ATL _IAH _____ DEN _PHX _SEA ______ (10d) _____+2.0 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___--5.6 _+6.7 _+7.4 ____--1.8 _+4.5 _--4.1 ______ (p17d) ____--1.7 _--2.7 _--1.8 ___--4.3 _+3.0 _+8.0 ____+3.0 _+4.5 _--2.0 ______ (p27d) ____--1.5 _--2.0 _--1.2 ___--2.5 _+3.5 _+6.0 ____+3.5 _+4.0 _--0.5
  13. So, I've been on the road (moving house) and I will look into getting a contest thread going this weekend, we'll see if there's enough interest to sustain it or not. I am a bit out of the loop on recent weather events, has anybody had any snow yet? I just saw enough to satisfy my cravings on the road yesterday, nothing close to sea level around this region yet, but plenty in the mountains. It has started a bit early so perhaps a sign of a west coast trough, not the best news for snow lovers east of about Omaha.
  14. I went with my heart for three and with my brain for one ... BWI: 39.9 DCA: 19.5 IAD: 42.4 RIC: 17.8 Tiebreaker (SBY): 15.5
  15. Table of forecasts for November 2017 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SnoSki14 ____________________+7.0_+8.0_+5.0__ +1.5 _+4.0 _+2.0 ___ --1.0 _--2.0_--3.0 RJay _______________________ +4.0 _+4.0 _+4.0 __ +3.0 _+4.0 _+4.0 ___ +0.5 _--0.5 _--1.5 DonSutherland.1 ______________+4.0 _+3.6 _+3.4 __ +1.7 _+5.4 _+5.7 ___ +1.1 _--0.6 _--3.1 hudsonvalley21 _______________+3.1 _+3.3 _+3.1 __ +1.4 _+3.4 _+3.2 ___ +0.4 _+0.3 _--1.7 BKViking ____________________ +3.0 _+3.1 _+3.1 __ +1.9 _+2.5 _+2.1 ___ +0.4 _--0.2 _--1.1 so_whats_happening __________ +2.9 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +1.3 _+2.7 _+2.1 ___ --0.6 _+0.4 _--1.5 wxallannj ____________________+2.8 _+2.9 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+3.6 _+2.7 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _--1.4 dmillz25 ____________________ +2.5 _+2.3 _+2.7 __ --1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ --2.0 _+1.0 _--3.7 ___ Consensus _______________+2.5 _+2.2 _+2.6 __ +1.3 _+2.4 _+2.1 ___ +0.4 _+0.3 _--1.4 Neckbeard93 ____ (-9%) ______ +2.4 _+3.1 _+2.8 __ +0.5 _+2.9 _+3.2 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 _--1.7 H2OTown__wx _______________+2.1 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.3 _+2.4 _+1.7 ___ --0.6 _+0.3 _--0.7 wxude64 ____________________+1.8 _+1.9 _+0.7 __ --2.3 _+1.3 _+1.3 ___ --2.7 _+2.0 _+1.1 Roger Smith _________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.2 __ +1.7 _+0.2 _+0.4 ___ --1.5 _+2.0 _--0.8 RodneyS ____________________ +1.2 _+2.1 _+2.9 __ --0.2 _+2.3 _+5.4 ___ +1.5 _+2.8 _--2.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.2 __ --0.2 _+1.2 _+0.8 ___ --0.2 _+0.2 _--0.3 SD _______ (-7%) ___________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Color codes: +4.0 __ warmest forecasts (regular entrants) --2.0 __ coldest forecasts (regular entrants) __ where positive (ATL,IAH), Normal has coldest value. +8.0 __ more extreme forecasts from other entrant(s). ____________________________________________________________ Consensus is determined from the regular entrants (so that at end of year, it is comparable to total scores in the regular group) and in this case (to date) this is the median of 14 forecasts (2nd to 15th listed in the table of forecasts) and thus is the mean of 7th and 8th ranked values. This will be adjusted if Damage makes an appearance (Stebo has bowed out for the year, see his post above). This was not quite a precise operation over the year as I probably included occasional entrants Jan to Apr before having this brainstorm of making consensus fully comparable (in other words, giving us all a chance to outdo our own internal consensus). Last month, for example, it probably reduced the Consensus score from 400 to about 350. I think this is a better comparison for the regular entrants. SnoSki14 (and rainsucks if you enter later) may catch up to me or other stragglers in the annual contest at the rate achieved so far, and you will gradually enter into regular forecaster territory if you stay with us, the first occasion would be winter 2017-18 seasonal scoring where all who enter three months are eligible, and of course the 2018 contest year. (note: Nov 11th, temp forecasts verified and placed in excel file, edits only allowed for snowfall contest which closes end of Nov 15th).