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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    INKAPABL OF EROR
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Burnaby, BC, Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. Well, it's a trend among most of the forecasters, I've been running that extreme forecast for three years now and we've always had half or more of the forecasts qualifying (meaning that the most extreme forecast is quite often high score). I think 4 to 6 deg F anomaly sounds big but in climatological terms it is fairly modest, the standard deviation for most of these stations (outside of maybe summer) is close to 4 or 5 F deg. Record high values are usually around 11-13 F deg (maybe 6-8 in July and August). PHX and SEA tend to have smaller ranges. I have yet to earn a point for ORD which is really not my usual nemesis but I keep imagining a cold spell over the horizon and it never happens.
  2. Four Seasons scoring update -- winter 2016-17 As part of our contest we keep track of seasonal scoring and there's a separate award for the Four Seasons winner(s) in each contest category (original six, western and all nine). Points are awarded as follows ... 10 for first place, 7 for second place and then so on down to 1 point for each of 8th, 9th and 10th. This winter 2016-17 summary will be adjusted as February scores are confirmed (see post 23 for those). Consensus and Normal are not in these tables but their scores are listed at the end with the rank and points they would have had. Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts 1 _ _ RJay _______ 872 ___ 10 ______1 _ _ RJay ______ 680 ___ 10 _____ 1 _ _ RJay _______ 1552 _ 10 2 _ _ Blazess556 __ 816 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ dmillz25 ___ 634 ____ 7 ______2 _ _ Blazess556 ___1439 __ 7 3 _ _ Maxim ______ 811 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _DonSutherland_628___ 6 _____ 3 _ _ DonSutherland 1433 __ 6 4 _ _DonSutherland_805 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Blazess556 _ 623___ 5 _____ 4 _ _ Maxim ______ 1361 __ 5 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 752 ___ 4 ______ t5 _ _ Stebo _____ 616 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 1333 __ 4 6 _ _Stebo _______ 659 ___ 3 ______ t5 _ _ Tom _______616 ___ 4 ______ 6 _ _ dmillz25 _____1281 __ 3 7 _ _ Damage in T_ 656 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ BKViking ____581 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ Stebo _______1275 __ 2 8 _ _ dmillz25 ____ 647 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 580 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 1236 __ 1 9 _ _ wxallannj ____646 ___ 1 ______ 9 _ _ wxdude64 __ 566 ____ 1 _____ 9 _ _ hudsonvalley _1182 __ 1 10 _ _ hudsonvalley_ 621 ___ 1 _____t10 _ _hudsonvalley_561 ____ 1 _____10_ _ wxdude64 ___ 1178 __ 1 11 _ _ wxdude64___ 612 ___ - _____t10 _ _H2OTown_wx_561 ____1 _____11_ _ wxallannj ____ 1147 __ - 12 _ _ H2OTown_wx_562 ___ - ______12 _ _Maxim _____ 550 ____ - _____12_ _ H2OTown_wx_1123 __ - 13 _ _ so_whats_hap_549 ___ - _____ 13 _ _so_whats_hap 510____- _____ 13_ _ Tom ________1090 __ - 14 _ _ RodneyS ____ 527 ___ - ______14 _ _RodneyS ____504 ____ - _____14_ _ so_whats_hap_1059 __ - 15 _ _ SD ________ 502 ___ - ______15 _ _wxallannj ____ 501____ - _____15_ _ RodneyS ____ 1031 __ - 16 _ _ Tom _______ 474 ___ - ______16 _ _Roger Smith_ 495 _____ - _____16_ _ SD __________ 976 __ - 17 _ _ Prestige WW_ 471*___ - ______17 _ _Tom _______482 ____ - _____17_ _ Roger Smith ___877 __ - 18 _ _ Roger Smith _ 382 ___ - ______18 _ _Prestige WW_361*____ - _____18_ _ Prestige WW__ 832* _ - 7 _ _ Consensus __ 658 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _Consensus __ 589 ____ 2 _____ 8_ _ Consensus ___ 1247 __ 1 19 _ _ Normal_____ 362 ___ - ______18 _ _Normal _____452 ____ - _____19_ _ Normal ______ 814 __ - * Prestige Worldwide missed Dec 2016, ranked 2nd, 13th and 3rd for Jan-Feb.
  3. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-Feb) ---=--- >>> ... (provisional totals through Feb) ... (see post 23 for Feb scoring) Best scores for Feb may change in some cases. The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. Example, RJay had best scores for DCA, NYC, and ORD (in Feb) and also for the central total (in Feb), and was high score for Feb. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores are highlighted in red for locations, and in bold italic for groups and all six. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores 1 RJay ________________99 _106 _ 60 __265___ 60 _ 90 _ 75 __225 ___490 __ 110.100..0..1 _ Feb 2 Prestige Worldwide____112 _108_ 80__300 ___ 18 _122 _ 31 __171 ___ 471 __ 110.010 3 Maxim _______________74 _ 76 _ 95 __245 ___ 30 _ 95 _ 87 __212 ___ 457 __ 100.001 4 DonSutherland.1 ______ 62 _ 72 _ 83 __217 ___ 55 _ 71 _102__228 ___ 445 __ 001.111..1..1 _ Jan 5 blazess556 ___________82 _106 _ 88 __276 ___ 41 _ 45 _ 58 __144 ___ 420 __ 001.000..1..0 6 BKViking _____________45 _ 74 _ 109__228 ___ 11 _ 43 _ 32 __086 ___ 314 __ 001.000 7 Stebo _______________ 42 _ 50 _ 69 __161 ___ 11 _ 52 _ 43 __106 ___ 267 8 dmillz25 _____________ 35 _ 46 _ 70 __151 ___ 30 _ 43 _ 35 __108 ___ 259 __ 000.100 9 hudsonvalley21 _______ 32 _ 42 _ 83 __157 ___ 27 _ 35 _ 38 __100 ___ 257 10 Consensus __________ 38 _ 46 _ 75 __159 ___ 10 _ 45 _ 42 __097 ___ 256 10 wxallannj ___________ 29 _ 54 _ 80 __163 ___ 07 _ 51 _ 31 __089 ___ 252 11 Damage in Tolland ____25 _ 40 _ 70 __135 ___ 14 _ 36 _ 45 __095 ___ 230 12 so_whats_happening __35 _ 24 _ 60 __119 ___ 18 _ 38 _ 38 __094 ___ 213 t 13 H2Otown_WX ______ 33 _ 34 _ 72 __139 ___ 00 _ 47 _ 00 __047 ___ 186 t 13 wxdude64 _________ 20 _ 20 _ 56 __096 ___ 03 _ 45 _ 42 __090 ___ 186 t 15 SD________________29 _ 26 _ 60 __115 ___ 05 _ 25 _ 25 __055 ___ 170 t 15 Neckbeard93*______ 05 _ 20 _ 70 __095 ___ 00 _ 25 _ 50 __075 ___ 170 17 Tom _______________15 _ 18 _ 58 __091 ___ 10 _ 23 _ 26 __059 ___ 150 18 RodneyS ___________ 04 _ 00 _ 34 __038 ___ 04 _ 27 _ 52 __083 ___ 121 19 Roger Smith ________ 00 _ 00 _ 20 __020 ___ 00 _ 27 _ 65 __092 ___ 112 20 Normal ____________ 00 _ 00 _ 40 __040 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 _____ 040 __________________________________________________________________________________ Provisional annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-Feb 2017 FORECASTER _______DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _____________104 _186 _178___468 __ 0 0 0 _ Jan ______ 958 ( = 1) ___ FEB 2 DonSutherland.1 ___150 _164 _124 ___ 438 __ 2 1 0 ___________883 ( = 2) ___ JAN 3 Roger Smith _______111 _104 _184 ___ 399 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____ 511 ( = 16) t3 Consensus ________ 95 _166 _138 ____ 399 _________________ 655 ( = 8) 4 blazess556 ________ 98^_177^_122___ 397 _________________ 817 ( = 4) 5 dmillz25 __________ 94 _132 _168 ____ 394 _________________ 653 (= 8) 6 Stebo _____________70 _156 _166 ____ 392 __ 0 0 0 __________659 ( = 7) 7 BKViking __________ 66 _152 _170 ____ 388 _________________ 702 ( = 6) 8 Tom _____________ 58 _174 _154 ____ 386 _________________ 536 ( = 14) 9 wxallannj _________ 73 _192 _120 ____ 385 __ 0 1 1 __________ 637 ( = 9) 10 Damage in Tolland _ 84 _180 _118 ____ 382 __ 0 1 0 __________ 612 ( = 11) 11 wxdude64 ________ 84 _164 _130 ____ 378 _________________ 564 ( =13) 12 so_whats_happening_86_140 _140 ____ 366 _________________ 579 ( = 12) t13 Prestige Worldwide_ 83 _174 _104 ____ 361 _________________ 832 ( = 3) t13 hudsonvalley21 ___105 _150 _106 ____ 361 _________________ 618 ( = 10) 15 H20TownWx _______91 _132 _122 ____345 _________________ 531 ( = 15) 16 RodneyS __________92 _138 _110 ____340 _________________ 461 ( = 18) 17 Maxim ___________114 _114 _108 ____ 336 _________________ 793 ( = 5) 18 SD ______________ 96 _134 _ 78 ____ 308 _________________ 478 ( = 17) 19 Normal ___________ 86 _134 _ 78 ____ 298 _________________ 338 ( = 19) 19 Neckbeard93* ______35 _ 80 _ 20 ____ 135 _________________ 305 (= 19) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan) ^ one point deducted on scores (late Jan) ... will continue to track these time penalties through the year, hoping we can avoid the larger ones. ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.
  4. I will post updated annual (provisional for Feb) totals soon, at this point the five highest scores in each category are: (All nine forecasts) -- con 655 Rjay 958, DonSutherland.1 883, Prestige Worldwide 832, blazess556 817, Maxim 793. (Eastern + Central) -- con 256 Rjay 490, Prestige Worldwide 471, Maxim 457, DonSutherland.1 445, blazess556 420. (Western) -- con 399 Rjay 468, DonSutherland.1 438, Roger Smith 399, blazess556 397, dmillz25 394. Rather telling that consensus is higher for half the number of forecasts in the western portion as compared to the six "original" stations where so far the consensus score per site is 21.3 (65 in the west).
  5. Yes, I have updated the provisionals and scores have generally taken a tumble, looking at ORD I had them to +11 after 24th then they fall off a bit, still may make +10 but definitely close. ATL and IAH also looking closer to finishing at +10. DEN will take a hit starting on the 24th (according to current models anyway).
  6. Provisional scores for February 2017 These scores will be adjusted each time the provisionals change. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS____east____ORD_ATL_IAH____cent____ TOTAL Rjay ______________________ 80 _ 90 _ 50 ____ 220 ____ 50 _ 70 _ 60 ____180 _____400 Prestige Worldwide __________ 73 _ 70 _ 76 ____ 219 ____ 18 _ 88 _ 31 ____ 137 _____ 356 Maxim ____________________ 35 _ 60 _ 90 ____ 185 ____ 30 _ 65 _ 65 ____ 160 _____ 345 Blazess556 _________________65 _ 86 _ 78 ____229 ____ 39 _ 27 _ 34 ____ 100 _____ 329 DonSutherland.1 ___________ 27 _ 40 _ 66 ____ 133 ____ 35 _ 34 _ 40 ____ 109 _____ 242 BKViking __________________ 24 _ 48 _ 94 ____ 166 ____ 11 _ 23 _ 22 ____ 056 _____ 222 Damage in Tolland __________ 23 _ 40 _ 70 ____ 133 ____ 14 _ 31 _ 30 ____ 075 _____ 208 hudsonvalley21 _____________21 _ 38 _ 68 ____ 127 ____ 27 _ 27 _ 25 ____ 079 _____ 206 wxallannj __________________22 _ 40 _ 72 ____ 134 ____ 07 _ 33 _ 24 ____ 064 _____ 198 Consensus _________________21 _ 30 _ 68 ____ 119 ____ 10 _ 27 _ 30 ____ 067 _____ 186 Neckbeard93 _______________05 _ 20 _ 70 ____ 095 ____ 00 _ 25 _ 50 ____ 075 _____ 170 so_whats_happening ________ 18 _ 24 _ 60 ____ 102 ____ 18 _ 21 _ 26 ____ 065 _____ 167 Stebo _____________________17 _ 24 _ 56 ____ 097 ____ 11 _ 30 _ 25 ____ 066 _____ 163 dmillz25 ___________________20 _ 30 _ 60 ____ 110 ____ 10 _ 23 _ 20 ____ 053 _____ 163 wxdude64 _________________ 17 _ 20 _ 56 ____ 093 ____ 03 _ 33 _ 30 ____ 066 _____ 159 H2OTown_Wx ______________22 _ 30 _ 72 ____ 124 ____ 00 _ 33 _ 00 ____ 033 _____ 157 Tom ______________________11 _ 18 _ 58 ____ 087 ____ 10 _ 21 _ 21 ____ 052 _____ 139 RodneyS __________________ 04 _ 00 _ 34 ____ 038 ____ 04 _ 27 _ 44 ____ 075 _____ 113 SD _______________________ 10 _ 10 _ 50 ____ 070 ____ 05 _ 15 _ 15 ____ 035 _____ 105 Roger Smith ________________00 _ 00 _ 20 ____ 020 ____ 00 _ 25 _ 50 ____ 075 _____ 095 Normal ____________________00 _ 00 _ 40 ____ 040 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 _____ 040 Provisional scoring for western and all nine contests FORECASTER ______________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL _______ all nine (=rank) Roger Smith ________________35 _ 70 _ 96 _______201 _________ 296 (=16) blazess556 _________________13 _ 82 _ 88 _______ 183 _________ 512 (= 2) DonSutherland.1 ____________ 50 _100_ 32 _______ 182 _________ 424 (= 5) Rjay ______________________ 10 _ 90 _ 80 _______ 180 _________580 (= 1) H20Town_wx _______________03 _ 88 _ 86 _______ 177 _________ 334 (=10) Damage in Tolland __________ 20 _100 _ 56 _______ 176 _________ 384 (= 6) so_whats_happening ________ 10 _ 82 _ 76 _______ 168 _________ 335 (= 9) hudsonvalley21 _____________ 13 _ 88 _ 64 _______ 165 _________ 371 (= 8) Consensus _________________ 11 _ 88 _ 64 _______ 163 _________ 349 (= 9) Tom ______________________02 _ 82 _ 74 _______ 158 _________ 297 (=15) BKViking __________________ 00 _ 64 _ 90 _______ 154 _________ 376 (= 7) Stebo _____________________00 _ 60 _ 90 _______ 150 _________ 313 (=12) Prestige Worldwide __________11 _ 96 _ 38 _______ 145 _________ 501 (= 3) wxdude64 _________________ 00 _ 84 _ 56 _______ 140 _________ 299 (=14) Neckbeard93 _______________35 _ 80 _ 20 _______ 135 _________ 305 (=13) dmillz25 ___________________10 _ 40 _ 80 _______ 130 _________ 293 (=17) SD _______________________ 00 _ 80 _ 50 _______ 130 _________ 235 (=18) wxallannj __________________11 _ 92 _ 20 _______ 123 _________ 321 (=11) Normal ____________________00 _ 60 _ 60 _______ 120 _________ 160 (=20) RodneyS __________________ 18 _ 42 _ 54 _______ 114 _________ 227 (=19) Maxim ____________________ 30 _ 60 _ 20 _______ 110 _________ 455 (= 4) EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (most extreme or second ranked must be high score to qualify, it's a loss for extreme forecast when second ranked wins -- only a win is counted when extreme forecast wins). DCA (est +7.5) will finish as a win for Rjay (+5.5) NYC (est +5.0) would also finish as a win for Rjay (+5.5), would be a win for blazess556 and a loss for Rjay at any value between +3.9 and +4.8 and a tie at +4.9. BOS not currently in play. ORD (est +10.0) certain win for Rjay (+5.0). ATL (est +8.5) high chance of a win for Prestige Worldwide (+7.3) IAH (est +9.0) certain win for Maxim (+5.5) DEN (est +9.0) certain win for DonS (+4.5) PHX not currently in play. SEA (est -2.0) would be a win for Roger Smith (-2.2) and a loss for Stebo (-2.5) at any value -2.3 to -1.9. At -1.8 or warmer it would not qualify (third lowest forecast is -1.5). This summary will be transferred to a separate post when confirmed, and the standings including January updated.
  7. Currently snowing a lot heavier (on Franktown radar) in Ottawa-Kingston region of eastern ON than closer to low (which is northeast of Sudbury ON), I don't see that moisture on 12h RGEM now coming out, would suggest possible heavier snowfalls across VT-NH tomorrow during early stages of event. The southern energy phases with that around western NS but net effect will probably be mostly an orographic pattern with a general 1-3 inch foundation and local maxima of 6-10 inches on east slopes of ranges. A general 4-8 (10-20 cm) snowfall for Atlantic Canada to complicate matters there.
  8. I posted a disclaimer with the original post made about snowfall ratios at PWM, CON and BGR. As mentioned above, there was something faulty about yesterrday's climate reports (apparently) but rather than editing the copy posted, I added the correct info and left the original since it's later quoted and discussed. My apologies for the confusion, but it does appear that the information posted was in error (as provable by the incorrect monthly and seasonal snowfall totals given). There is no trace of the faulty reports now since the archives only list the corrected full-day climate reports. The erroneous info was probably restricted to PWM and CON, as BGR appears to have been correct as issued and later amended for the snow that fell after the first report at 4 p.m.
  9. This is not what I'm seeing. By "storm total" do you mean total snow on 12th-13th? That's what I mean by it. And there was 5.6" of snow before midnight at CON, 8.1" more since midnight. Check the CF6 and today's climate February snowfall totals. They increase by 8.1" to 26.2" after the 5.6" from Sunday 12th is reported as part of a total of 18.1". But maybe we're talking about two different concepts of when the storm began? In other words, the 8.1" does not include the 5.6" -- it is additional to the 5.6".
  10. Probably mostly valid points, I thought these were observer-staffed locations. However, the usual protocol is that the climate report at 4 p.m. is from midnight to 4 p.m. and precip of all types is all new since the last CF6 daily summary or the previous climate daily report, in fact if you compare final climate report for PWM and today's partial, this matches up in terms of seasonal snowfall reported as 54.3" to end of 12th and 69.4" now, will check it all out at the end of the day from the CF6 (and even then maybe you won't buy the ratios at that point, I have no way of knowing and I thought it looked a bit high, was expecting 20 or 30 to 1 more like Bangor has).
  11. DISCLAIMER (added Feb 14 at 1615z ... The following post was based on faulty information (apparently) posted for PWM and CON. Please disregard the information in this post. I would edit it out except that there is a discussion following with quotes so probably the better course of action would be moderator deletion of all posts referring to this. From my review of the data, I believe that BGR's climate report at 4 p.m. 13th was correct and carried forward while the reports for PWM and CON were incorrect including faulty monthly totals. The corrected numbers now available show ratios on the 13th closer to 20:1. I think that subsequent discussion includes the corrected snowfall totals but for the record (at this point in time, assuming no further updates) PWM added 6.7" (.44 LE), a ratio of just over 15:1 and a two day aggregate of 16.1" from 1.58" LE (ratio 10:1 rounded). CON added only 2.5" from 0.18" LE (a ratio of about 14:1) for an aggregate of 8.1" from 0.71" (about 11.5 to 1 ratio). The final numbers for BGR on 13th were 21.5" added from 0.90" LE (a ratio of about 24:1) and that gives an aggregate for the two days of 24.2" from 1.04" (about 23:1). What follows is the original post based on retracted information. I will edit this again if the CF6 records change at some future time. Some crazy ratios today (since midnight) according to early climate reports. These figures assume all snow and no taint. In general it looks like the snow was very dry after midnight and quite moist before midnight (the exact transition was no doubt between the two phases of the event). PWM added 15.1" from 0.20 LE, ratio 75.5 : 1 ... (yesterday 9.4" from 1.14 LE, ratio 8.2 : 1) ... overall 24.5" from 1.34 LE, ratio 18:1 BGR added 16.4" from 0.55 LE, ratio 30:1 ... (yesterday 2.7" from 0.14 LE, ratio 19.3 : 1) ... overall 19.1" from 0.69 LE, ratio 28:1 CON added 8.1" from 0.18 LE, ratio 45:1 ... (yesterday 5.6" from 0.53 LE, ratio 10.6 : 1) ... overall 13.7 from 0.71 LE, ratio 19:1 Those added amounts are to 4 p.m. EST and will presumably increase with slight changes to ratios, I will perhaps review this from final data and post final figures. But those are very low water content values from today's phase.
  12. I would be mildly optimistic about the storm coming together at the last minute, when the coastal starts to pull in the low currently over n.e. NY state around 06z, heights will be falling very rapidly and there may be another tuck effect near the trough that would otherwise be linear from the coastal to the dying land center (at that point near Springfield MA). This might allow coastal convergence bands to push further south than BOS for a while. It would also reduce temps enough to guarantee no further mixing and all snow. I agree that the systems look a little anemic right now, but the development phase is 03z-09z and that's where all the coastal banding action should become intense. Okay, now go out on the field and have a good second half (that works, right?).
  13. Something unusual with the system dropping southeast from Yukon-NWT, the warmest reading anywhere in Canada recently was at Yohin Lake in the southwest part of the NWT near the Alberta border (52 F). This is only a slight chinook effect as nearby mountains are not all that high. Would be 45-48 F plus a bit of downsloping. Normal temperature there would be something like 10 F. I think this system (for the coast Wednesday into Thursday) still has some upside potential and the GEM had a promising look earlier.
  14. To be clear, the energy in the Yukon at this point would be associated with the mid-week low, not the one being discussed here. The energy for that storm is currently over northwestern Ontario, in association with the frontal wave near the IN-OH border. Seeing that temps in central OH are 58 F, it would appear rather unlikely that much snow will fall tomorrow in s CT, NYC or LI, and it's going to take some time to phase the systems enough for moderate snow to develop around ALB that will move into MA, n CT. Meanwhile the Yukon energy gets to northern MB about same time and begins to dive southeast, to form that potential mid-week top-up event. This near-term event looks good eventually and I'm sticking with amounts like 8" ALB, 13" ORH, 11" BOS, 18-20" CON, PWM and BGR.
  15. I have to enter a forecast in a contest for this storm and these are my working estimates. Your critiques may help me fine tune this to extraordinary precision. Or you may just screw me up. Sunday-Monday totals (incl early Tuesday if storm lingers) ... 2-4" for most of metro NYC, LI, s coast CT, offshore MA islands 4-7" central CT and most of RI, coastal se MA 7-10" northern CT, most of se MA, most of VT 8-12" ALB and most of w/c MA to BOS, most of NH except se, more than 100 miles inland ME 12-18" ne MA, se NH, coastal ME to 100 miles inland 18-24" in a few locations between Portland ME and Portsmouth NH large drifts likely in areas east of ORH, gusts to 70 mph on coast.