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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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    Rossland BC Canada
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    global climate research, golf

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  1. With regard to that listing of 80 degree seasons at NYC, here's a breakdown of the 30-year averages. This shows both 1871-1900 and 1869-1900 which have the same averages within 0.1 (A), then 1901-30 (B), 1931-60 (C), 1961-90 (D) and 1991-2020 (E). The overall average of 152 seasons is also shown in bold type (F). The calendar dates shown are for non leap years, go one day earlier to apply to leap years. I derived an actual average duration (of 80 and + seasons) for all leap years and found that it was almost five days shorter (duration) than the overall data, so one would expect the actual leap year data set to have narrower extremes. However the sample size may account for that kind of internal variation in the data. 80 and + seasons ________________________________________ >80 seasons ____________________ _____________ A ______ B ____ C ____ D ____ E ____ F ________ A _____ B _____ C _____ D _____ E _____ F start date _ May 3 _ Apr 30 _ Apr 30 _ Apr 21 _ Apr 20 _ Apr 27 <<>>May 6 _ May 4 __ Apr 30 _ Apr 22 _ Apr 23 _ Apr 29 end date __ Sep 24 _Sep 30 _Oct 10 _ Oct 5 _ Sep 30 _ Oct 2 <<..>>Sep 19 _ Sep 28 _ Oct 7 __ Oct 3 __ Sep 26 _ Sep 28 duration ___ 143 __ 153 ___ 162 ___ 166 __ 162 __ 157 <<....>> _135 __ 146 ___ 159 ___ 163 __ 154 __ 151 __________________ Some interesting trends emerge from this. The season was getting longer until around the 1960s, but while the onset continued to advance or at least remain static, the end of these seasons began to pull back towards the earlier termination dates seen around the second interval 1901-30. My guess is that it won't continue to do that for 2021-50, but the phenomenon of record warmth in late autumn seems to have peaked around the 1960s while that of early spring warmth has shown a tendency to be more evenly distributed since about 1930. The differential between 80 and + and the >80 seasons was smaller when they lasted longer, and I noticed while compiling the table a tendency for quite a few years to end with a much higher reading than 80, a few actually ended their 80+ or >80 seasons with a 90 degree reading. By the way, the longest 90 deg season was way back in 1927 (first date Apr 20, 90F and last Oct 2, 90F). That was a season of 164 days. The second longest was 1939 (first May 7, 92F and last Oct 10, 91F). That season was 155 days. 2010 went from Apr 7 to Sep 9 but had an 89 deg reading on Sep 26.
  2. Is there any research on connections between the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the El Nino or more broadly the SOI ? Reason I ask is that a lot of the more recent warmings (since 1980) seem to be driven by strong El Nino events, so is there any reason to think that greenhouse gases can influence that cycle? Not trying to say that the recent warming is just a natural product of strong El Nino events because I can see the broader warming signal but it would be interesting to know if anyone has looked into this aspect. Also, related question, what are peoples' thoughts on air mass modification? Is the warming entirely due to a shift in air mass frequency or is it a combination of that and air mass modification? My subjective opinion on that is that air masses are being modified at a lower rate than the overall warming, which relies more on the shift in frequency. As we saw in Feb 2015, if cold arctic air can dominate a month, then it turns out almost as cold as record months of the past. But that frequency of arctic air that we "enjoyed" (perhaps the wrong word) up to around the early 1980s has definitely dropped off in recent decades.
  3. 1882 is probably the winner, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 31 and the last one was Sep 20. That is 111 days using the counting method in the tables already posted by others (it works out to the number of days between the end dates so not including either of them, if you included both of the end dates, then 113 days). 1875 is probably second, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 20 and the last one was September 10. That is 112 days (or 114 counting both end dates). That latter (Sept 10) is not an extreme earliest date for termination of the 80 or + season, 1902 (Sept 2), 1876 (Sept 4) and 1871 (Sept 6) finished earlier, but 1871 had a much earlier onset with 85F on April 8 and therefore longer seasons. The extreme for latest onset appears to be June 7 (1924) followed by May 31 (1882); also later than 1875 was May 25 (in 1873) but that season terminated on Sep 29 (lasting 15 days longer than 1882), also 1898 started its season on May 20 but went into early October to reach 137 days. 1988 began its season May 23, 1904 began its season on May 24, 1916 and 1946 on May 25, 1920 and 1999 on May 28. In 1869 with some missing data but likely much cooler than 80F from maps available, the first 80 deg day is also May 13 and the first to exceed 80 was May 26. 1883 joins the group for the >80F short duration because the season ended in late August but after some very cool weather for most of the autumn an outlier 80F occurred on Oct 14 so this year did not make the first table, as I show in the following tables (80 or higher seasons shorter than 135 days in table 1, >80 seasons shorter than 125 days in table 2): (I have used the same convention for counting dates between the first and last 80 or + and (>80) as shown in other tables above, which I worked out to be the number of days between the start and end date, not counting either of them. The actual duration of the season adds two days (the end points) to my values and those in the other tables above.) Table 1: SHORTEST DURATIONS OF (80 or +)F MAX at NYC 1882 ________ 80 May 31 ___ 84 Sep 20 __________ 111d (152-262) 1875 ________ 80 May 20 ___ 80 Sep 10 ___________112d (141-252) 1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ____________ 118 d (132-249) 1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 80 Sep 4 ____________119d (129-247)* 1924 ________80 June 7 ____ 81 Oct 6 ____________ 120d (160-279) 1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 ___________ 123d (136-258) 1904 ________ 86 May 24 ___ 80 Sep 25 __________ 123d (146-268)* 1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 ___________ 124d (145-268)* 1873 ________ 80 May 25 ___ 80 Sep 29 __________ 126d (146-271) 1966 ________ 83 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 11 ___________ 127d (127-253) 1971 ________ 84 May 11 ____ 86 Sep 16 __________ 127d (132-258) (78 on Oct 29) 1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 80 Sep 28 __________ 127d (145-271)* 1899 ________ 84 May 1 ____ 82 Sep 8 ____________ 129d (122-250) (79 on Oct 18) 1911 _________ 83 May 18 ___ 86 Sep 25 __________ 129d (139-267) 1932 ________ 83 May 16 ___ 86 Sep 23 __________ 129d (138-266)* 2020 ________ 80 May 3 ___ 82 Sep 10 ___________ 129d (125-253)* 1869 ________ 80 May 12 ___ 86 Sep 20 __________ 130d (133-262) 1893 ________ 80 May 11 ___ 82 Sep 19 ___________ 130d (132-261) 1902 ________ 84 Apr 22 ___ 82 Sep 2 ____________ 132d (113-244) 1906 ________ 84 May 13 ___ 80 Sep 23 __________ 132d (134-265) 1907 ________ 85 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 24 __________ 132d (134-265) 1889 ________ 81 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259) 1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 80 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259) 1890 ________ 80 May 1 ____ 83 Sep 13 ___________ 134d (122-255) 1933 ________ 80 May 15 ___90 Sep 27 ___________ 134d (136-269) 1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 80 Sep 12 ___________ 135d (121-255)* * leap year, date count one higher for calendar dates Table 2: SHORTEST DURATIONS OF >80F MAX at NYC __ duration (dates between end points) 1873 ________ 87 May 28 ___ 87 Sep 5 ___________ 99d (149-247) 1882 ________ 83 June 7 ___ 84 Sep 20 _________ 104d (159-262) 1883 ________ 81 May 8 ____ 88 Aug 23 _________ 106d (129-234) 1999 ________ 81 May 28 ___ 81 Sep 12 _________ 106d (149-254) 1875 ________ 86 May 21 ___ 84 Sep 9 __________ 110d (142-251) 1924 _______ 81 June 15 ___ 81 Oct 6 ___________ 112d (168-279) 1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 87 Sep 1 ___________ 116d (129-244)* 1869 ________ 86 May 26 ___ 86 Sep 20 ________ 116d (147-262) 2020 ________84 May 15 ___ 82 Sep 10 _________ 117d (137-253)* 1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ___________118d (132-249) 1893 ________ 85 May 21 ___ 82 Sep 19 _________120d (142-261) 1900 ________ 84 May 14 ___ 86 Sep 12 ________ 120d (135-254) 1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 81 Sep 4 __________ 120d (127-246) 1890 ________ 81 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 13 _________ 121d (135-255) 1908 ________ 81 May 12 ___ 81 Sep 11 __________ 121d (134-254)* 1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 83 Aug 30 _________ 122d (121-242)* 1901 ________ 85 May 24 ___ 81 Sep 24 _________ 122d (145-266) 1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 82 Sep 23 _________122d (145-266)* 1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 __________123d (136-258) 1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 _________ 124d (145-268)* * leap year, date count is one higher than other years for same calendar dates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Earliest and Latest 80 deg max in graphical format (advance of the extremes) _________ 1871 Apr 8 ________ 1879 Oct 16 _______ 1892 Apr 4 __________1897 Oct 16 _____ 1917 Apr 1** __________ 1908 Oct 16 _____ ** 1910 Mar 30 (78) close __1921 Mar 21 ___________________ 1919 Oct 28 _ 1945 Mar 20 ___________________ 1946 Oct 31** ___ **1938 Nov 7 (78) close _ (1990 Mar 13) ___________________1950 Nov 2 (1974 Nov 1) _ 1990 Mar 13 ______________________ 1993 Nov 15 close out of season attempts to stretch the limits ... _ 79 Mar 10, 2016 ___________________ 77 Nov 20, 1985 _ 78 Feb 21, 2018 ____________________ 75 Dec 7, 1998 ============================================== List of the longest seasons for 80 or higher, in successive increases over past seasons 166d _ 1881 _ Apr 24 to Oct 8 168d _ 1891 _ Apr 19 to Oct 5 173d _ 1892 _ Apr 4 to Sep 25 174d _ 1914 _ Apr 19 to Oct 11 176d _ 1919 _ May 4 to Oct 28 192d _ 1921 _ Mar 21 to Sep 30 195d _ 1928 _ Apr 5 to Oct 18 212d _ 1945 _ Mar 20 to Oct 19 (207d)_1963 _ Apr 2 to Oct 27 214d _ 1990 _ Mar 13 to Oct 14 ________________________________________ Other seasons 180d or longer: 1985 (199); 1993 (197); 1961 (187); 1968, 1974 (186); 1967 (185); 1938, 1942 (184); 1955, 1959, 1998, 2016 (183); 1960 (182); 1979, 2011, 2017 (181); 1922 (180) To tie the record set in 1990, 2021 will need to record 80 F or higher on October 27 (first reading was 82F Mar 26). To match fourth place 1985, 2021 will need to record 80F or higher on October 12. _________________________________________ Most of the short seasons were before 1905, but a few have happened in more recent years. Oddly, some rather hot summers join this list (1901, 1966 and 1988 can all be found). Hoping this graph will copy from my excel file where I did this analysis. 1869 - 2020 Duration (days) of 80 deg seasons (blue is 80 or +, orange is >80) ... Many years have the same durations for these (if end points are >80)
  4. CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN OCTOBER Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Sep 25 - Oct 1 __________ (max) 85.43 _ 1881 ____ (max) 59.57 _ 1928 Sep 25 - Oct 1 ___________ (min) 70.00 _ 1881*______ (min) 43.57 _ 1947 _ * 67.14 _ 1959 Sep 25 - Oct 1 __________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 52.79 _ 1947 (52.86 1928) _ the wettest week ending Oct 1 was 2010 (5.22") Sep 26 - Oct 2 __________ (max) 83.43 _ 1881 ____ (max) 60.14 _ 1928 Sep 26 - Oct 2 ___________ (min) 68.86 _ 1881 ______ (min) 43.29 _ 1947 Sep 26 - Oct 2 __________ (mean) 76.14 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 53.00 _ 1947 (53.50 1928) _ the wettest week ending Oct 2 was 1913 (5.28") Sep 27 - Oct 3 __________ (max) 82.14 _ 1881 ____ (max) 57.71 _ 1888 Sep 27 - Oct 3 ___________ (min) 67.43 _ 1881 ______ (min) 43.86 _ 1947 Sep 27 - Oct 3 __________ (mean) 74.79 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 51.14 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Oct 3 was 1913 (5.28") Sep 28 - Oct 4 __________ (max) 82.57 _ 1954 ____ (max) 55.57 _ 1888 Sep 28 - Oct 4 ___________ (min) 66.86 _ 1954 ______ (min) 41.71 _ 1888 Sep 28 - Oct 4 __________ (mean) 74.71 _ 1954*____ (mean) 48.64 _ 1888 _ * 72.50 _ 1959 _ the wettest week ending Oct 4 was 1913 (5.28") Sep 29 - Oct 5 __________ (max) 82.71 _ 1922*____ (max) 56.57 _ 1888 _ * 81.43 _ 1927 Sep 29 - Oct 5 ___________ (min) 67.57 _ 1954*______ (min) 42.00 _ 1947 (45.00 1899) _ * 66.29_1898 Sep 29 - Oct 5 __________ (mean) 74.71 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 49.29 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Oct 5 was 1913 (5.28") Sep 30 - Oct 6 __________ (max) 82.14 _ 1922 ____ (max) 57.57 _ 1899 (57.86 1888) _ * 81.29 _ 1927 Sep 30 - Oct 6 ___________ (min) 66.00 _ 1898 ______ (min) 43.86 _ 1888 (45.00 1899) _ * 65.43 _ 1954 Sep 30 - Oct 6 __________ (mean) 72.64 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 50.86 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Oct 6 was 1913 (5.28") Oct 1 - Oct 7 __________ (max) 82.29 _ 1941 ____ (max) 58.00 _ 1899 (59.29 1888) Oct 1 - Oct 7 ___________ (min) 64.71 _ 1898*______ (min) 43.43 _ 1892 _ * 64.29 _ 1941 Oct 1 - Oct 7 __________ (mean) 73.29 _ 1941 ____ (mean) 51.21 _ 1883 (52.07 1888) _ the wettest week ending Oct 7 was 1913 (5.28") Oct 2 - Oct 8 __________ (max) 81.71 _ 1941, 2007 __ (max) 58.29 _ 1889 (58.71 1888) Oct 2 - Oct 8 ___________ (min) 65.57 _ 2007*______ (min) 43.14 _ 1889 _ * 64.29 _ 1898 Oct 2 - Oct 8 __________ (mean) 73.64 _ 2007* ____ (mean) 50.71 _ 1889 (51.36 1883) _ * 72.36 _ 1941 _ the wettest week ending Oct 8 was 1903 (4.78") Oct 3 - Oct 9 __________ (max) 82.29 _ 2007*____ (max) 55.86 _ 1888 _ * 80.86 _ 1941 Oct 3 - Oct 9 ___________ (min) 65.86 _ 2007 ______ (min) 42.29 _ 1889 Oct 3 - Oct 9 __________ (mean) 74.07 _ 2007*____ (mean) 49.57 _ 1888 (50.21 1889) _ * 72.50 _ 1959 _ the wettest week ending Oct 9 was 1903 (11.64") Oct 4 - Oct 10 _________ (max) 81.00 _ 1959, 2007 __ (max) 56.57 _ 1888 Oct 4 - Oct 10 __________ (min) 66.29 _ 2007 ______ (min) 42.71 _ 1889 Oct 4 - Oct 10 _________ (mean) 73.14 _ 1959, 2007*____ (mean) 49.71 _ 1888 (50.21 1889) _ * 72.86 _ 2017 _ the wettest week ending Oct 10 was 1903 (11.81") Oct 5 - Oct 11 _________ (max) 80.43 _ 1990 _____ (max) 55.71 _ 1888 Oct 5 - Oct 11 __________ (min) 66.86 _ 2007 _____ (min) 40.43 _ 1964 Oct 5 - Oct 11 _________ (mean) 73.29 _ 2017*____ (mean) 49.21 _ 1888 (49.29 1964) _ * 72.14 _ 1959 _ the wettest week ending Oct 11 was 1903 (11.94") Oct 6 - Oct 12 _________ (max) 80.86 _ 1990 ______ (max) 54.14 _ 1888 Oct 6 - Oct 12 __________ (min) 65.57 _ 1990*______ (min) 39.57 _ 1964 _ * 65.43 _ 2017 Oct 6 - Oct 12 _________ (mean) 73.21 _ 1990 ____ (mean) 48.43 _ 1888 (49.21 1964) _ the wettest week ending Oct 12 was 1903 (11.96") Oct 7 - Oct 13 _________ (max) 80.29 _ 1949* _____ (max) 53.43 _ 1888 _ * 78.86 _ 1961 Oct 7 - Oct 13 __________ (min) 66.71*_ 1990 ______ (min) 40.71 _ 1876 _ * 64.43 _ 1949 Oct 7 - Oct 13 _________ (mean) 73.07 _ 1990*____ (mean) 47.43 _ 1888 (49.43 1988) _ * 72.36 _ 1949 _ the wettest week ending Oct 13 was 1903 (11.96") _ 11.71" in 2005 Oct 8 - Oct 14 _________ (max) 80.43 _ 1949 _____ (max) 51.57 _ 1888 Oct 8 - Oct 14 __________ (min) 67.57 _ 1990 ______ (min) 40.43 _ 1875 (40.86 1876, 41.57 1925) Oct 8 - Oct 14 _________ (mean) 73.36 _ 1990 ____ (mean) 46.29 _ 1888 (48.86 1925, 49.29 1988) _ the wettest week ending Oct 14 was 2005 (13.02") _ 11.95" in 1903 _ _ The 2005 amount was the highest weekly total in October and also in the entire calendar year. Oct 9 - Oct 15 _________ (max) 80.29 _ 1954 ______ (max) 51.29 _ 1888 Oct 9 - Oct 15 __________ (min) 66.29 _ 1990 ______ (min) 39.57 _ 1876 Oct 9 - Oct 15 _________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1990*____ (mean) 46.00 _ 1888 _ * 71.29 _ 1954 _ the wettest week ending Oct 15 was 2005 (8.76") _ 7.65" in 1903 Oct 10 - Oct 16 ________ (max) 80.14 _ 1954 ______ (max) 53.57 _ 1888 Oct 10 - Oct 16 _________ (min) 64.00 _ 1900 ______ (min) 39.00 _ 1876 Oct 10 - Oct 16 ________ (mean) 71.36 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 47.50 _ 1876 _ the wettest week ending Oct 16 was 2005 (8.75") _ 5.83" in 2002
  5. Current GFS shows it moving gradually west along 12N to 50W as a weak TD at most, then slowly intensifying as it curves NNW past all of the Caribbean islands heading towards Bermuda where it might be a cat-1 hurricane in about ten or eleven days, then a landfall over western Newfoundland near day 12-13. It might be the 16th named storm because the invest east of Florida seems to acquire TD to weak TS intensity off the Carolinas towards Nova Scotia within 3-5 days, no landfall predicted at this point with that one (which might get the 15th name, Omar possibly? ). This GFS scenario could easily change to something more impactful further west though.
  6. Nicholas did reach hurricane status around landfall last night, so the new count is 14/6/3. Here's a copy of the table edited above for the number of storms each forecaster now requires to meet their predictions. That table will be locked and this new one will see the next round of edits. Odette, Peter and Rose have changed the count to 17/6/3 with just slight chances of any of them becoming hurricanes (Odette is not necessarily done because part of its circulation may redevelop tropical status, but even so that looks only tropical storm at most which would change nothing). ... Required future tropical counts for seasonal predictions to verify _ This table will be updated as new data change the seasonal count _ _ Sep 14 count is 14/6/3 (see previous version for earlier counts) _ Sep 18 count is 15/6/3 (Odette came and went although there's some chance of a part two). _ Sep 20 count is 17/6/3 (Peter and Rose both tropical storms, little chance of hurricane status apparently). FORECASTER _________________ named __ 'canes __ Major _____ additional named, H and M required Macintosh ______________________ 25 __ 14 __ 10 ___________ 8 ___ 8 __ 7 Tezeta __________________________ 23 __ 14 ___ 7 ___________ 6 ___ 8 __ 4 (best outcome 8 8 4) Roger Smith _____________________23 __ 13 ___ 7 ___________ 6 ___ 9 __ 4 (best outcome 9 9 4) Southmdwatcher ________________22 __ 11 ___ 6 ___________ 5 ___ 5 __ 3 IntenseWind002 ________________ 22 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 5 ___ 3 __ 1 hudsonvalley21 __________________21 __ 11 ___ 6 ____________4 ___ 5 __ 3 (best outcome 5 5 3) Newman ________________________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 4 ___ 4 __ 2 J_Keith_Lee _____________________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 4 ___ 3 __ 1 Brian5671 _______________________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 ___________ 3 ___ 6 __(-1) (6 6 0 best outcome) RJay ____________________________ 20 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 3 ___ 4 __ 0 (4 4 0 best outcome) WxWatcher007 __________________20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 3 ___ 3 __ 1 BKViking ________________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 3 ___ 3 __ 1 ___ consensus __________________19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 __________ 2.2_3.8 _1.7 (4 4 2 best outcome) DonSutherland1 _________________ 19 __ 12 ___ 6 ____________ 2 ___ 6 __ 3 (6 6 3 best outcome) Ldub _____________________________ 19 __ 11 ___ 5 _____________2 ___ 5 __ 2 (5 5 2 best outcome) magpiemaniac ___________________ 19 __ 10 ___ 4 ____________ 2 ___ 4 __ 1 (4 4 1 best outcome) NCforecaster89 _________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________2 ___ 3 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) Tom _____________________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 3 _____________ 2 ___ 3 __ 0 (3 3 0 best outcome) Looking to the skies _____________ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 _____________ 2 ___ 2 __ 4 (3 3 3 best outcome) wxdude64 _______________________ 19 ___ 7 ___ 4 _____________ 2 ___ 1 __ 1 TexMexWx _______________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 1 ___ 3 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) Cat Lady _________________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 _____________ 1 ___ 3 __ 0 (3 3 0 best outcome) snowlover2 ______________________ 18 ___ 8 ___ 4 _____________ 1 ___ 2 __ 1 (2 2 1 best outcome) Iceresistance ____________________ 18 ___ 7 ___ 3 ______________ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 Rhino16 __________________________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 _____________ 0 ___ 4 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) cptcatz ___________________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 0 ___ 3 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) NorthHillsWx ____________________ 17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ______________ 0 ___ 3 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) ____ "Expert consensus" _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 4 _____________ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 (2 2 1 best outcome) TARCweather ____________________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 _____________ 0 ___ 2 __ 0 (2 2 0 best outcome) ____ NOAA median _____________ 16.5 ___ 8 ___ 4 ____________-0.5 __ 2 __ 1 (2 2 1 best outcome) Yoda _____________________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 _____________-1 ___ 3 __ 2 (best outcome 2 2 2) LoboLeader1 _____________________ 15 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________-2 ___ 3 __ 1 (2 2 1 best outcome) Prospero _________________________ 14 __ 11 ___ 7 ______________-3 ___ 5 __ 4 (best outcome 3 3 3) ____________________________________________________________________ As of Kate (Aug 30) three forecasts were impossible to verify but those three could still win the contest by hitting their best possibles. With Larry a major hurricane in early September, a fourth forecast fell into this category. And with Mindy's arrival three more drifted into the Cannot Fully Verify Narrows. Most can still win the contest though if they hit their best possible outcomes as shown. Nicholas did not add any new members to the "cannot fully verify" category but drew even with our lowest prediction of number of storms. We are still one short of the lowest number of hurricanes predicted (7 by wxdude64 and Iceresistance), and had already seen one forecast passed by the number of majors (Brian5671, 2) with five others now level at 3. Various projections were made in the previous version of the table. Assuming the season is now 60% complete and that the second portion will match that for relative intensity, the projected end point would be (rounded off) 24 10 5 which implies a further count of 10 4 2. An assumption of higher intensity by one third would yield 24 12 6, a further count of 10 6 3. My subjective estimate is that the season may end around 24 13 5. (10 7 2 yet to come) ... the bottom three forecasts are just about eliminated from any chance to win at this point by the progression of possible outcomes that match their seasonal count, or beyond. By 16 the highest possible count is 16 8 5 so Yoda could win if that happened and then nothing else happened later. That would require storms 15 and 16 to be major hurricanes. By the time we reach 17 with any combination of possible H and M, the three forecasts at 14-16 are eliminated as each outcome would have a lower total error count with a higher-storm-number forecast. (by 17 the possible outcomes are these: 17 6 3 current count (17 7 3, 17 7 4, 17 8 3, 17 8 4, 17 8 5, 17 9 3, 17 9 4, 17 9 5, 17 9 6) all now eliminated assuming that none of the Odette Peter Rose triad surprise with a hurricane appearance. At 18 the possible outcomes are 18 6 3, 18 7 3, 18 7 4 (18 8 3, 18 8 4, 18 8 5, 18 9 3, 18 9 4, 18 9 5, 18 9 6, 18 10 3, 18 10 4, 18 10 5, 18 10 6, 18 10 7). those in brackets now eliminated, as long as none of the Odette Peter Rose triad surprise with a hurricane appearance. _________________ With the brief existence of TS Odette, three more forecasters have drifted into the shallows where their numbers cannot verify, but probably none of them are yet eliminated from any chance of winning the contest. After Peter and Rose, many more (most of the contest field) found themselves in the same shallows, so it's beginning to look like a few who still have possible verifying numbers are moving into the lead now.
  7. First report on anomalies and projections ... ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th (anom 10d) ___--1.9 _--1.6 _ +2.3 __ +0.2 _--1.5 _ +1.0 __ +4.6 _+0.1 _ +1.3 21st (anom 20d) ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _+3.3 __+4.1 _--1.6 _--0.4 __ +4.6 _+1.3 _ --0.8 11th (p anom 20d)_ +2.0_ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 11th (p anom 27d)_ +2.0_ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +2.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 21st (p anom 30d) _+1.0_ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __ 0.0 (21st) _ Warmth has been more focused on the Midwest than further east, although Boston has remained well above normal. Recent rather cool weather in SEA is giving way to a somewhat warmer end of the month and DEN and PHX look set to finish the month above normal. The next 7-10 days in the east appear rather close to average if perhaps slightly cool at first.
  8. I have updated the "storms now required" post a few posts back in the thread, for Mindy's brief appearance. A growing number of forecasts are now somewhat adrift as their numbers cannot fully verify, but I don't think very many forecasts are eliminated despite that, and it's going to be a very competitive end to the contest. I mentioned in that post that with a rather lackluster tropical outlook in the current models at this peak time of the season, perhaps 21 11 5 is the most likely finish we might expect (but it's just speculation). Count is now 13/5/3. (edit Sept 12) With the appearance of Nicholas, the count is 14/5/3 -- will wait to see if Nicholas happens to become a hurricane before updating the table of "storms required to verify."
  9. The meteorological season of summer is in the books, for Toronto it ranked tied tenth warmest with 2011, and it reminds me that I have not generated tables for seasonal ranks at NYC but it was probably closer to 30th there as all three months ranked lower than Toronto. Have already mentioned June in a previous post, so July 2021 was a rather average temperature month at both locations, then August went back to being very warm, in fact it was third warmest on record at Toronto, closer to 15th at New York City. Both locations set some new high minimum readings mostly in the last third of the month. While August 2021 was very dry at Toronto, both July and August were very wet in New York City which received several tropical remnants and after one rather weak daily rainfall record on May 29th, added five more by September 1st. I usually don't put any early new season data in the files, but as NYC had a daily rainfall record on Sept 1 (7.13") I have the first few days of the month in the updated file. So you'll find the links to the updated excel files in this post, if you would like to get the new information this past season, plus some new features that I have worked on in the NYC file, for average temperatures on a weekly time scale, together with extremes identified. There are also expansions of previous record temperature summaries. (updated excel files of data are attached to this post on net-weather, follow the link in the original post to find them)
  10. June 2021 was fourth warmest in 182 tries at Toronto, and ninth warmest in 153 at NYC. For Toronto, only 2005, 1919 and 1949 were warmer. Even when the urban heat island was factored in, Toronto remained in fourth place, as most of the years ranked 5-20 are quite recent so they didn't gain much advantage over 2021. Generally speaking 1919 and 1949 had warmer daytime readings than 2005 or 2021, and June 1949 was also the driest month on record. Meanwhile, I have worked out the longest dry spells for NYC in similar fashion to the Toronto dry spells that are listed near the end of page one of this thread and summarized in the first post of page two. This is the list of all dry spells of 15 days (absolute, zero precip) or 20 days (small amounts allowed up to .01" per two days) Longest Dry Spells at NYC These lists rank the longest absolute dry spells (no precip over a trace amount), and extended dry spells (low precip totals that do not exceed .01" for every two consecutive days in the EDS). ____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ________________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______ Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS) _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12) _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36) t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.) t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t04___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11) t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t04___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14) t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9) t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t06 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12) t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t06 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27) t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15) t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____t10 ___ 1882 ___ 34 (.08") __ July 20 to Aug 22 (13) t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t10 ___ 1899 ___ 34 (.17") __ May 12 to Jun 14 (15) t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________t12 ___ 1881 ___ 33 (.10") __ Aug 8 to Sep 9 (11) t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________t12 ___ 1943 ___ 33 (.13") __ Nov 23 to Dec 25 (13,19) t 14 ___ 1877 ___ 23 ___ Dec 7 to 29 _________t12 ___ 1999 ___ 33 (.16") __ July 3 to Aug 4 (9) t 14 ___ 1991 ___ 23 ___ Oct 18 to Nov 9 _____t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.13") __ Aug 8 to Sep 8 (14) t_14 ___ 2015 ___ 23 ___ Apr 23 to May 15 ___t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.06") __ Sep 24 to Oct 25 (20) _ 17 ___ 1988 ___ 22 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 20 ___t15 ___ 1947 ___ 32 (.11") __ Sep 27 to Oct 28 (12, 9) t 18 ___ 1870 ___ 21 ___ Aug 27 to Sep 16 ____t15 ___ 1963 ___ 32 (.14") __ Sep 30 to Oct 31 (24) t 18 ___ 1895 ___ 21 ___ Feb 9 to Mar 1 ______ t19 ___ 1903 ___ 31 (.11") __ May 7 to June 6 (12,15) t 18 ___ 1904 ___ 21 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 12 ____t19 ___ 1955 ___ 31 (.12") __ Nov 21 to Dec 21 (14) t 18 ___ 1908 ___ 21 ___ Sep 7 to Sep 27 _____t19 ___ 1966 ___ 31 (.09") __ June 18 to July 18 (11) t 18 ___ 1917 ____21 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 20 ____t19 ___ 1989 ___ 31 (.16") __ Nov 29 to Dec 29 (14, 14) t 18 ___ 1962 ___ 21 ___ June 27 to July 17 ___ 23 ___ 1909 ___ 30 (.14") __ Oct 24 to Nov 22 (12) t 24 ___ 1886 ___ 20 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 13 ___ t24 ___ 1877-78_29 (.04") __ Dec 6 to Jan 3 (23) t 24 ___ 1944 ___ 20 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 11 ___ t24 ___ 1880 ___ 29 (.11") __ May 1 to 29 (17) t 24 ___ 1999 ___ 20 ___ May 25 to June 13 __ t24 ___ 1884 ___ 29 (.08") __ Aug 31 to Sep 28 (27) t 27 ___ 1914 ___ 19 ___ Sep 26 to Oct 14 ____t24 ___ 1973 ___ 29 (.03") Sep 30 to Oct 28 (26) t 27 ___ 1917 ___ 19 ___ Sep 9 to 27 _________ t24 ___ 1985 ___ 29 (.14") __ Oct 6 to Nov 3 (10) t 27 ___ 1938 ___ 19 ___ Aug 12 to 30 ________t24 ___ 2001 ___ 29 (.07") Apr 22 to May 20 (26) t 27 ___ 1943 ___ 19 ___ Dec 7 to 25 _________ t30 ___ 1910 ___ 28 (.11") __ June 19 to July 16 (9) t 27 ___ 1949 ___ 19 ___ May 30 to Jun 17 ____t30 ___ 1941 ___ 28 (.00") __ Sep 5 to Oct 2 (28) t 27 ___ 1976 ___ 19 ___ Apr 3 to 21 __________t30 ___ 1964 ___ 28 (.11") __ Oct 22 to Nov 18 (14,10) t 27 ___ 1978 ___ 19 ___ Oct 28 to Nov 15 ____t30 ___ 1976 ___ 28 (.02") __ Nov 1 to 28 (9, 18) t 27 ___ 2007 ___ 19 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 ____ t30 ___ 2003 ___28 (.14") __ Jan 7 to Feb 3 (8) t 35 ___ 1894 ___ 18 ___ Aug 21 to Sep 7 ____ t35 ___ 1908 ___ 27 (.09") __ June 17 to July 13 (9,9) t 35 ___ 1903 ___ 18 ___ Apr 16 to May 3 ____ t35 ___ 1955 ___ 27 (.05") __ July 11 to Aug 6 (13, 10) t 35 ___ 1976 ___ 18 ___ Nov 11 to 28 ________t35 ___ 1980 ___ 27 (.08") __ Jan 20 to Feb 15 (24) t 35 ___ 1977 ___ 18 ___ Apr 6 to 23 _________ t35 ___ 2005 ___ 27 (.09") __ July 18 to Aug 13 (11) t 35 ___ 1980 ___ 18 ___ June 11 to 28 _______ t39 ___ 1902 ___ 26 (.09") __ Oct 29 to Nov 22 (14, 9) t 35 ___ 2017 ___ 18 ___ Sep 20 to Oct 7 _____ t39 ___ 1915 ___ 26 (.02") __ Mar 8 to Apr 2 (15, 10) t 41 ___ 1875 ___ 17 ___ Aug 24 to Sep 9 _____ t39 ___ 1916 ___ 26 (.12") __ Aug 12 to Sep 6 (10) t 41 ___ 1880 ___ 17 ___ May 1 to 17 __________t39 ___ 1931 ___ 26 (.08") __ Nov 1 to 26 (13) t 41 ___ 1887 ___ 17 ___ May 8 to 24 _________ t39 ___ 1939 ___ 26 (.00") __ Nov 6 to Dec 1 (26) t 41 ___ 1908 ___ 17 ___ Nov 19 to Dec 5 _____t39 ___ 1950 ___ 26 (.09") __ Sep 14 to Oct 9 (16) t 41 ___ 1939 ___ 17 ___ Oct 4 to 20 __________t45 ___ 1900 ___ 25 (.06") __ Dec 5 to 29 (16) t 41 ___ 1945 ___ 17 ___ Aug 7 to 23 _________ t45 ___ 1914 ___ 25 (.03") __ Aug 30 to Sep 23 (15) t 41 ___ 1946 ___ 17 ___ Sep 4 to 20 _________ t45 ___ 1942 ___ 25 (.00") __ Apr 11 to May 5 (25) t 41 ___ 1948 ___ 17 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 8 _____ t45 ___ 1981 ___ 25 (.09") __ Jan 8 to Feb 1 (15) t 41 ___ 1945 ___ 17 ___ Aug 7 to 23 __________t45 ___ 2004 ___ 25 (.11") __ Feb 8 to Mar 3 (13) t 41 ___ 1961 ___ 17 ___ Aug 28 to Sep 13 ____ t45 ___ 2005 ___ 25 (.08") __ Aug 20 to Sep 13 (13) t 41 ___ 1986 ___ 17 ___ Feb 22 to Mar 10 ____ t51 ___ 1869 ___ 24 (.06") __ Oct 24 to Nov 16 (11) t 41 ___ 1999 ___ 17 ___ Nov 3 to 19 __________t51 ___ 1874 ___ 24 (.02") __ Aug 23 to Sep 15 (12,11) t 41 ___ 2001 ___ 17 ___ Oct 17 to Nov 2 ______t51 ___ 1904 ___ 24 (.06") __ Aug 21 to Sep 13 (21) t 41 ___ 2010 ___ 17 ___ Aug 26 to Sep 11 ____ t51 ___1909 ___ 24 (.06") __ June 29 to July 22 (8) t 55 ___ 1877 ___ 16 ___ Sep 18 to Oct 3 ______t51 ___ 1922 ___ 24 (.00") __ Sep 13 to Oct 6 (24) t 55 ___ 1881 ___ 16 ___ July 14 to 29 _________t51 ___ 1959 ___ 24 (.04") __ Sep 4 to 27 (16) t 55 ___ 1895 ___ 16 ___ June 7 to 22 _________ t51 ___ 1968 ___ 24 (.07") __ Sep 12 to Oct 5 (12) t 55 ___ 1900 ___ 16 ___ Dec 12 to 27 _________t51 ___ 1972 ___ 24 (.12") __ July 22 to Aug 14 (11) t 55 ___ 1901 ___ 16 ___ Oct 20 to Nov 4 ______t51 ___ 2013 ___ 24 (.11") __ Oct 8 to 31 (11) t 55 ___ 1902 ___ 16 ___ Apr 10 to 25 _________ t51___ 2015 ___ 24 (.05") __ Apr 22 to May 15 (23) t 55 ___ 1923 ___ 16 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 9 ______ t61 ___ 1872 ___ 23 (.10") __ Feb 15 to Mar 8 (10) t 55 ___ 1950 ___ 16 ___ Sep 23 to Oct 8 ______ t61 ___ 1885 ___ 23 (.07") __ Sep 10 to Oct 2 (12) t 55 ___ 1959 ___ 16 ___ Sep 12 to 27 _________ t61 ___ 1894 ___ 23 (.08") __ Aug 16 to Sep 7 (18) t 55 ___ 1964 ___ 16 ___ May 16 to 31 ________ t61 ___ 1896 ___ 23 (.11") __ Jan 1 to 23 (9) t 55 ___ 1967 ___ 16 ___ May 30 to June 14 ___ t61 ___ 1964 ___ 23 (.09") __ Aug 19 to Sep 10 (12) t 55 ___ 1970 ___ 16 ___ Feb 16 to Mar 3 ______t61 ___ 1991 ___ 23 (.00") __ Oct 18 to Nov 9 (23) t 55 ___ 1987 ___ 16 ___ Aug 11 to 26 _________t61 ___ 1999 ___ 23 (.08") May 25 to June 16 (20) t 55 ___ 1988 ___ 16 ___ Aug 1 to 16 __________t68 ___ 1870 ___ 22 (.03") __ Aug 26 to Sep 16 (21) t 55 ___ 2020 ___ 16 ___ Sep 11 to 26 ________ t68 ___ 1899 ___ 22 (.10") __ Nov 20 to Dec 11 (11) t 70 ___ 1876 ___ 15 ___ June 25 to July 9 _____ t68 ___ 1917 ___ 22 (.01") __ Oct 31 to Nov 21 (21) t 70 ___ 1876 ___ 15 ___ Aug 18 to Sep 1 ______t68 ___ 1968 __ 22 (.08") Apr 2 to 23 (13) t 70 ___ 1886 ___ 15 ___ June 25 to July 9 _____ t68 ___ 1973 ___ 22 (.11") __ Nov 2 to 23 (14) t 70 ___ 1895 ___ 15 ___ Oct 16 to 30 _________ t68 ___ 1981 ___ 22 (.11") Aug 17 to Sep 7 (14) t 70 ___ 1899 ___ 15 ___ Apr 18 to May 1 ______t68 ___ 1988 ___ 22 (.00") __ Nov 29 to Dec 20 (22) t 70 ___ 1899 ___ 15 ___ May 30 to June 13 ___ t68 ___ 1999 ___ 22 (.10") __ Nov 3 to 24 (17) t 70 ___ 1903 ___ 15 ___ May 23 to June 6 _____t76 ___ 1877 ___ 21 (.06") __ Feb 3 to 23 (15) t 70 ___ 1908 ___ 15 ___ May 31 to June 14 ____t76 ___ 1895 ___ 21 (.00") __ Feb 9 to Mar 1 (21) t 70 ___ 1908 ___ 15 ___ Oct 11 to 25 __________t76 ___ 1904 ___ 21 (.05") __ Nov 14 to Dec 4 (12) t 70 ___ 1909 ___ 15 ___ Aug 21 to Sep 4 ______t76 ___ 1908 ___ 21 (.00") __ Sept 7 to 27 (21) t 70 ___ 1912 ___ 15 ___ June 26 to July 10 ____ t76 ___ 1908 ___ 21 (.10") __ Nov 16 to Dec 6 (17) t 70 ___ 1913 ___ 15 ___ May 1 to 15 ___________t76 ___ 1923 ___ 21 (.04") __ Sep 24 to Oct 14 (16) t 70 ___ 1914 ___ 15 ___ Sep 9 to 23 ___________t76 ___ 1935 ___ 21 (.05") __ May 8 to 28 (14) t 70 ___ 1915 ___ 15 ___ Mar 8 to 22 ___________t76 ___ 1940 ___ 21 (.09") __ Oct 9 to 29 (13) t 70 ___ 1925 ___ 15 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 5 ______ t76 ___ 1962 ___ 21 (.00") __ June 27 to July 17 (21) t 70 ___ 1930 ___ 15 ___ July 30 to Aug 13 _____ t76 ___ 2000 ___ 21 (.01") __ Oct 19 to Nov 8 (10, 10) t 70 ___ 1932 ___ 15 ___ July 5 to 19 ___________ t76 ___ 2006 ___ 21 (.05") __ Mar 13 to Apr 2 (11) t 70 ___ 1953 ___ 15 ___ Aug 18 to Sep 1 _______t76 ___ 2010 ___ 21 (.11") __ May 19 to June 8 (9) t 70 ___ 1964 ___ 15 ___ June 22 to July 7 ______ t76 ___ 2012 ___ 21 (.10") __ Mar 4 to 24 (7) t 70 ___ 1968 ___ 15 ___ July 4 to 18 ___________ t89 ___ 1879 ___ 20 (.02") __ Sep 29 to Oct 18 (13) t 70 ___ 1974 ___ 15 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 14 ______ t89 ___ 1886 ___ 20 (.07") __ Feb 27 to Mar 18 (13) t 70 ___ 1978 ___ 15 ___ Aug 13 to 27 __________ t89 ___ 1887 ___ 20 (.01") __ May 8 to 27 (17) t 70 ___ 1979 ___ 15 ___ Oct 13 to 27 ___________t89 ___ 1892 ___ 20 (.05") __ Sep 15 to Oct 4 (12) t 70 ___ 1980 ___ 15 ___ Aug 16 to 30 __________ t89 ___ 1897 ___ 20 (.02") __ Sep 3 to 22 (10) t 70 ___ 1981 ___ 15 ___ Jan 17 to 31 ___________ t89 ___ 1901 ___ 20 (.10") __ Feb 10 to Mar 1 (8) t 70 ___ 2001 ___ 15 ___ Nov 5 to 19 ____________t89 ___ 1910 ___ 20 (.09") __ Nov 5 to 24 (7) t 70 ___ 2015 ___ 15 ___ Sep 14 to 28 ___________t89 ___ 1914 ___ 20 (.06") __ Sep 26 to Oct 15 (19) t 70 ___ 2020 ___ 15 ___ June 12 to 26 __________ t89 ___ 1944 ___ 20 (.00") __ Aug 23 to Sep 11 (20) t 98 ___ all at 14 days __________________________ t89 ___ 1963 ___ 20 (.10") __ Mar 27 to Apr 15 (7) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 1968 ___ 20 (.04") __ June 29 to July 18 (15) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 1971 ___ 20 (.09") __ Apr 8 to 27 (13) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 1976 ___ 20 (.03") __ Apr 2 to 21 (19) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 1978 ___ 20 (.05") __ Oct 28 to Nov 16 (19) ________________________________________________ t89 ___1985-86_ 20 (.07") __ Dec 14 to Jan 2 (6) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 1986 ___ 20 (.08") __ Mar 16 to Apr 4 (7, 7) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 2010 ___ 20 (.03") __ June 23 to July 12 (10) ________________________________________________ t89 ___ 2020 ___ 20 (.05") __ June 7 to 26 (15) __________________________________________________________________ Most of the EDS entries, if not extensions of the first list of absolute dry spells, contain 9-15 day ADS intervals, and a few entries such as the last one add no days at either end of a long ADS, so the EDS is the original ADS. A few EDS have two ADS in their duration, for example 24d EDS in 1874 had 12d and 11d ADS separated by .02" 21 days from Oct 19 to Nov 8 2000 had only .01" (on Oct 29, dividing this into two ten-day dry spells). Two long dry spells in Sep-Oct 1914 were separated by only .28" in two days, and narrowly missed combining for an eligible 49-day EDS. The average year has 6.4 EDS which include 3.6 ADS. The average EDS is 15 days long. Those associated with an ADS are on average about 14 days long. As the amount of precipitation varies from nil to .10" per 20 days, the total precipitation in all these dry spells is probably around 50" (two fairly dry years, but the total length of these dry spells is about 40 years). The average year has 88.7 days within the various dry spells, the range is 18 (2014) to 159 (1909). 1945 and 2014 had the fewest days in qualifying dry years, however, they were not overly wet years, their cycle of wet and dry seemed to be closer to 7-8 days. Considering how much rain fell in 1983, the year managed an almost average output of dry spells, mainly in February and the late autumn. This is a frequency distribution of the months involved in the 97 longest absolute dry spells (15 or more days), frequency assigned by nearest 0.1 portions when the dry spell overlaps two months. JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC 1.3 ___ 3.8 __ 1.9 ___ 6.3 __ 7.0 __ 9.3 __ 6.5 __15.9 __19.2 _ 13.9 __7.8 __ 4.1 This frequency distribution shows that late summer into autumn is favored for long dry spells, winter and early spring least favored, with a slight secondary peak around late May through June. About half of the dry spell frequency is in the period August to October. The following is a graph of the number of days each year (1869-2020) within qualifying dry spells. There are peaks around the 1880s, 1900s, 1960s and (early) 1980s. Peak years from graph: ___ 1885 _ 1909 _____ 1965_1980 _ (2010)
  11. (posted June 7, 2021) All updates have been completed now for May 2021 and spring 2021 data, in the tables through this thread, and also in the excel files that support them. May 2021 was running very warm at both locations but cooled down significantly near the end of the month, ending up just above long term averages as a result. The depth of cold at the end was considerable and some daily records were set, notably two low maxima for NYC with one being a "benchmark" low maximum (latest so cold in the season). Toronto managed to break some rather weak high max and min records before the cold arrived and the most notable record there was a trace of snow on May 28th, fourth latest on record. The nearby airport weather station (CYYZ) had a measurable amount of 0.2 cm which represents their latest measurable snowfall in any spring season (but their records go back only about 80 years). The updated excel files have all the data since the last posting of them, and some new features that weren't available in the previous editions. There are now logs of NYC record highs and lows giving an overview of historical trends, and making it possible to calculate easily what the records looked like at various points in the past. The data files are attached. (once again, American Weather Forum readers should follow the link in the original post to net-weather to download, but go to the last post rather than this one. That has not been posted yet on Net-weather, but I plan to post it within the next few hours. It will contain the updated files through August (and it has the Sept 1 2021 rainfall record for NYC in the tables).
  12. The decade of 1961-70 slowed the pace of record setting (for high maxima) with a total count of 51.67 which resulted in 26.66 eventual records (counting ties). This was still a bit ahead of random expectation (38 and 24.2), indicating that the climate had not cooled back to the levels of the early decades. A total of 60 records were set on 57 days of the year but 16 were only ties of previous records for a count of 49.33 (the extra 2.33 is because of two cases where two years from the decade took turns setting a record on the same date in addition to one three-way tie being replaced by an exclusive record within the decade). We are at the point of approaching a hundred years of records (1968) where years at random would be setting 3.7 new records (and retaining 2.4 to the end of the data). In this decade, August was noticeably cooler than in previous decades and set very few top ten calibre temperatures, with only one record. July 1966 had prolific heat but the other nine years of this decade didn't contribute much to that month's record totals either, it was probably autumn that kept this decade productive relative to previous decades. This decade produced about twice as many sustained record low minima as the previous decade (22 vs 11 in rounded terms). Winters turning colder was one of the main reasons for this. 1961 __ This year started out quite cold but February warmed to above normal temperatures which lasted into early March. The rest of the spring and most of the summer were cool to near average, then the autumn was quite warm with several records set. The year set nine records, two being ties so that the count is 8.00. Of those, four have survived with a count of 3.50, so the survival rate is 43.3%. These 1961 records broke previous values by an average of 1.7 F deg. The average year breaking five of them is 1987, which becomes 2002 if the four surviving records fall later this year. The average surplus of eventual record highs is 4.75 F deg which reduces to 2.4 F deg counting the surviving records. On the low maximum side of the ledger, no records were set in a cold spell in late January and early February but the temperature stayed below freezing from Jan 19th to Feb 3rd with most days not far from 20F. A record was set on May 27th (47F) which was a late season benchmark. The winter cold spell came within one degree (Feb 2nd -2F) of setting a daily minimum record (1881 had -3F). That was one of five occasions when 1961 recorded the coldest value after an earlier record. The low on May 27th was a benchmark record (41F) and the next day added a tie (43F) with 1907 (count 1.50). This was most of the year's production, another tied record (September 16th tied 1913 at 49F) brought the year's count to 2.0 but that tie was soon broken first in 1964 and later by 1966. (survival rate 75%). There were also two record high minima in 1961, both tied for a count of 1.00. Aug 25th (76F) tied with 1998 and Oct 31 (62F) with 1881. Several other days were within 1 or 2 deg of record high minima in the autumn months including 61F on Nov 4th and 62F on Nov 5th. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _63F ___ Feb 19 ___ 1948,49,54 (59F) ___ 1997 (66F) __ 1997 (66F) __ (2017 2nd (65F), 1961 3rd (63F), 1994 4th (61F), 1948,49,54.81 t5th (59F)). _65F ___ Feb 24 ____________ 1930 (65F) _1985 (75F) __ 1985 (75F) __ (2017 2nd (70F), 1930,61 t-3rd (65F), 2000 5th (64F), 1984 6th (63F)). _64F ___ Mar 3 ___ 1871,1923 (63F) ____ 1991 (65F) __ 1991 (65F) __ (1961,67 t-2nd (64F), 1871,1923,72 t-4th (63F), 2002 7th (61F), 2004,07,20 t-8th (59F)). _96F ___ June 13 __ eventual record .. (1892 2nd (95F), 1984,2017 t-3rd (94F), 1940,83,88 t-5th (93F), 1956 8th (91F)). _93F ___ Sep 5 ___ 1884,98,1944,59 (90F) _ 1985 (94F) __ 1985 (94F) __ (1961 2nd (93F), 1983 3rd (91F), 1884,98,1944,59,70,71 t-3rd (90F)). _94F ___ Sep 12 ___ eventual record .. (1895 2nd (93F), 1952,2005 t-3rd (90F), 1936,1981 t-5th (89F), 1920,32,47,82 t-7th (88F)). _82F ___ Oct 30 ___ eventual record tied by 1946 .. (1950 3rd (79F), 2016 4th (76F), 1918,94 t5th (75F), 1971 7th (74F)). _77F ___ Nov 4 ___ 1914 (76F) __________1975 (78F) __ 1975 (78F) __ (1961,87 t-2nd (77F), 1914,74,94 t-4th (76F), 1990 7th (73F)). _78F ___ Nov 5 ___ eventual record .. (1938 2nd (74F), 1935,75,94 t-3rd (73F), 1959, 2005 t-6th (72F), 2015 8th (71F), __ __ __ __ __ __ 1984 9th (69F), 1948 10th (68F), 1900,34,2020 t-11th (67F)). ________________________________________ 1962 __ This year had a very warm spring after quite a cold winter, and set several records including the all-time May record (19th) of 99F, but one potential record was lost to an earlier high reading: 91F Apr 27th was not a record (92F 1915). The summer became rather cool and autumn was near normal with a few warmer days. December turned quite cold again. The year set five records, with two ties reducing the count to 4.00. The monthly maximum for May (99F on 19th) was the most notable. Of these, two have survived but one has been tied twice since, giving a count of 1.33 and a survival rate of 33.3%. These 1962 records increased former values by an average of 2.0 F deg. The average year breaking three of them was 1996 which would become 2006 if the two surviving records fell at the next opportunity. The three broken 1962 records were eventually surpassed by an average of 2.0 F deg which reduces to 1.2 F if the two surviving marks are included. Two low maxima occurred between the Apr 28 and May 19 record highs, 45F on May 2nd and 49F on May 8th. July 18th had a record low maximum of 66F, August 10th only 60F (a benchmark as July's minimum was 61F), and the 11th at 68F tied 1931 and 1933. Oct 26th was another benchmark low maximum (39F). The final day of the year had a high of 13F but that had been beaten in 1917 (6F). The total for the year was five and the count 4.33. There was just a one-sixth share in the March 3rd minimum record (11F) and a record of 56F on Aug 11th, for a count of 1.17 ... this was the year's actual production of record low minima but the tie was fifth of an eventual six, so within the year the count was 1.2, which makes the survival rate 97.3%. In addition, there were five occasions when 1962 at least tied for coldest after an earlier record (count 3.7), most of those in July which often ran within 2-3 degrees of earlier record lows. There were no surviving high minima; the May heat wave came with relatively moderate overnight lows that were not close to records (Toronto seemed to have a longer heat wave and did set some high minimum values near 70F, as well as matching the monthly maximum, in their case 94F later tied by May 29, 1969 which was 97F at NYC). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _79F ___ Mar 30 __ 1910 (78F) _________ 1998 (82F) __ 1998 (82F) __ (1962,77 t-2nd (79F), 1910,86 t-4th (78F), 1979 6th (76F), 1945 7th (74F)). _86F ___ Apr 22 __ eventual record later tied by 1973, 2001 .. (1977,85 t-4th (85F), 1902 6th (84F), 1926,2004 t-7th (82F)). _89F ___ Apr 28 ___________ 1938 (89F) _ 1990 (90F)__1990,2009 (90F) __ (1938,62 t3rd (89F), 1969 5th (86F), 1983,2017 t6 (85F)). _99F ___ May 19 __ eventual record .. (2017 2nd (91F), 1964,96 t-3rd (89F), 1903 (88F), 1885,1906,98 t-6th (87F)) [May monthly max] _68F ___ Dec 1 ____________ 1927 (68F) _ 2001 (69F) ___2006 (70F) ___ (1927,62 t-3rd (68F), 1991 6th (66F), 2014 7th (65F)). __________________________________________________________________ 1963 __ The winter was cold as in Britain and Ireland, then the spring warmed rapidly with quite a variable regime, followed by a rather hot summer although August turned cool, as was September. October became very warm and rivalled 1947 for top spot even by the end of the data series. Both months produced average maximum values of 72F. There were numerous days in the low 80s some of which did not reach record status (these include 83F 7th, 16th and 17th). This warmth persisted into most of November but December turned very cold. There were ten record highs set, one being an ordinary tie and two with two previous ties, for a count of 8.17. Of those, five have survived, two becoming or already tied for a count of 4.00, and a survival rate of 49.0%. These 1963 records broke previous marks by an average of 1.9 F deg. The average year breaking five records from 1963 was 1983, which changes to 2002 if the five surviving records fall in the next ten months. The average surplus of eventual records to the five broken from 1963 was 2.6 F deg which drops to 1.3 F if the five surviving records are included. There were also four record low maxima, 21F on Feb 22nd, a one-quarter share of 73F on July 14th (count 1.25), a benchmark 56F on Sep 6th and then 57F on Sep 23rd -- like 1947, this autumn started very cool before turning record warm. The count was 3.25. There were seven record low minima, 8F on Feb 22nd (tied 1918). Earlier, -2F on Feb 8th had lost out to 1934. May 23-24 had 43F and a benchmark low 39F. July 9th had 54F. September 5th had 51F and the 13th 46F with 40F on the 24th. The count was 6.50 making 1963 one of the most variable years in terms of exceeding random expectation on both sides of normal. Within the year, the count was 7.5, which is higher than all later years as was the count of surviving records (1976 had 6 in both categories). With a ratio of 1.95 actual to expected record low minima, the surplus was greater than any later year and most previous years except for 1940 (2.07), 1888 (3.26) and 1875 (2.35). Even 1914 with its 15.0 count had a slightly lower ratio to expected (1.89). 1963 also had seven days with minima that were lowest since records set, in years as far back as 1880. With one ties for any of those, the count was 6.5, in the top ten of all years (1967 had 9.7, 1976 had 8.6, 1940 had 7.75, 2018 had 7.17 and several others had similar counts to 1963). There were no record high minima set, however; the warm spell in October had clear skies and low humidities and it seems that in later autumn, cloud cover is necessary for record high minima to be set. Overall, there is also some question about whether Central Park is a more effective cooling location in warm weather than wherever the temperatures were recorded before the move into the park around 1920. The year 1908 in particular had a lot of record high minima, something perhaps worth checking, as it had few record high maxima. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _79F ___ Mar 25 __ eventual record .. (1913 2nd (77F), 1910,64 t-3rd (75F), 2016 5th (72F), 1921 6th (71F), 1920,87,88 t-7th (70F)). _80F ___ Apr 2 ____ 1918 (78F) __________ 1967 (81F) __ 1967 (81F) __ (1963 2nd (80F), 1918 3rd (78F), 1934 4th (77F), 1946 5th (75F)). 2006,10 (68F). _86F ___ May 4 ___ 1944 (85F) ___________1965 (90F) __ 2001 (92F) __ (1965 2nd (90F), 1963 3rd (86F), 1944, 2015 t-4th (85F), 2018 6th (84F), 1942,49 t-5th (83F)) _94F ___ June 28 __________ 1870,80 (94F)_1969 (96F) __ 1969,91 (96F) _ (1870,80,1963 t-3rd (94F), 1901,66,2010 t-6th (93F)). _98F ___ July 27 ___ eventual record tied by 1940 .. (1955,2005 t-3rd (97F), 1999 5th (96F), 1899 6th (95F), 1941,51 t-7th (94F)). _83F ___ Oct 19 ___ 1945 (80F) ___________ 2016 (85F) _ 2016 (85F) __ (1963 2nd (83F), 1965 3rd (81F), 1945 4th (80F), 1928 5th (79F). _77F ___ Oct 24 __________1900, 46 (77F) __ 2001 (79F) _ 2001 (79F) __ (1900,46,63 t-2nd (77F), 1973 5th (76F), 1940,72, 2017 t6th (74F)) _79F ___ Oct 25 ___ eventual record .. (2001 2nd (75F), 1875,1993,2010 t-3rd (74F), 1908,89 t-6th (73F), 1920,24,31,98,2000 t-8th (72F)). _78F ___ Oct 26 ___ eventual record later tied by 1964 .. (1989 3rd (77F), 1947 4th (76F), 1971,73 t5 (75F), 1924 7th (73F)) _82F ___ Oct 27 ___ eventual record .. (1947 2nd (78F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1899.1991,2010 t-4th (75F), 1920,29,64 t-7th (74F)) ______________________________________________ 1964 __ The cold regime from December ended after a snowstorm hit NYC just before mid-January, and the rest of the winter was fairly bland, then the spring of 1964 produced some warmer than average conditions at times. The summer was rather warm until late July and then August was unusually cool. The autumn was near average overall with variable temperatures. There were just four records set or tied (count 3.00), albeit three of them have survived (count 2.50) and this makes 1964 the best year so far at preserving records set (survival rate 83.3%). These four records broke previous marks by an average of 1.25 F deg (two were ties though). The only record broken from 1964 (June 10th) fell in 1974; if the other three fell later this year, the average extinction date of 1964 records would become 2009. The average amount surpassed statistic is that lone case, eventually 4 F deg, for an average of 1.0 F counting the three surviving records. There were a few other days in 1964 that were close to records, notably 99F on July 1st, and 71F on Nov 13th. It was 60F on each of Dec 25th, 26th and 27th. After the two very hot days (June 30, July 1 both 99F) the weather turned quite cool and two low maximum records were set with 63F on the 9th and 67F on the 13th. July 9th also set a daily rainfall record although it was probably the weakest of the summer season at just 1.09" after 1.05" the previous day -- not a very summery day in any case. August had several very cool spells but missed out on setting records (more success at Toronto). Early October also had some near misses. The count remained 2.00. Four record minima were set in 1964. three in August -- 59F on 1st tied 1895, and 54F on 14th and 15th. Oct 11th hit 34F which was also a benchmark value. This made the count 3.50. Within the year the count was 4.83, a record set on September 16th (48F) was soon broken in 1966 (47F), and a third of another record (39F Oct 8 tied 1885, 1935) was replaced by 1988 (37F). Continuing a trend from earlier years in the decade, there were six occasions when 1964 had a share in lowest minimum after an earlier record, but the count was reduced to 3.58 by several ties. There were two record high minima, one was a share of May 24 (70F) with 1884 and 1902, and the other was 50F on Dec 26th. A minimum of 77F on July 1st was one degree short at the time and has since fallen two degrees behind the 2018 record of 79F. The count here was 1.33. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _94F ___ May 23 __ eventual record .. (1992 2nd (92F), 1925,30,94 t-3rd (91F), 1941,80 5th (90F)). _92F ___ June 10 __________ 1959 (92F) _ 1974 (95F) _ 2008 (96F) _ (1974,84 t-2nd (95F), 1959,64,2000 t-4th (92F), 1906,67,73 t-7th (91F)). _99F ___ June 30 __ eventual record .. (1945 2nd (97F), 1901,31 t3rd (95F), 1906,66,68 t5th (94F), 1872,1959,1961,2018 t8th (93F)). _78F ___ Oct 26 ___ eventual record tied by 1963 .. (1989 3rd (77F), 1947 4th (76F), 1971,73 t5 (75F), 1924 7th (73F)) __________________________________________________ 1965 __ This was a somewhat colder than average year but occasionally produced brief spells of warmth too. May and December were the only months to register much above average temperatures. July was unusually cool or at least temperate, with a mean maximum of 83F (normal is 86F). Only two days exceeded 90F in July, 1965. May 26 (94F) was only one degree short of breaking the 1880 record. The year ended with the warmest New Years Eve - New Years Day combination (your correspondent was actually there at the time, visiting relatives from home base in Ontario, Canada; I recall there being thunder and lightning and warm rain falling on both Christmas eve and New Years eve during that holiday). The year set four records, with one tie for a count of 3.50. It was about to become a rare case of a year after 1900 with no surviving records but the evening temperature (63F) on New Years Eve just edged out the previous value by one degree, and that record has survived (as has Jan 1st at 62F). This is a survival rate of 29.4%. These four records edged out previous ones by an average of just 1.5 F deg. The average year breaking three records from 1965 was 1999 and that would change to 2004 if the NYE record fell this year. The average by which three records have been surpassed by eventual records is 1.67F which reduces to 1.25F if the surviving record is included. There were two record low maxima, 62F on June 16th and 59F on Sep 13th (count 2.00). There were two record low minima, 50F on Aug 29th and 30th, losing 51F (tied 1912) on 31st to 1976 (also 50F). As the first of the pair was later tied in 1982 and 1986, the count is 1.33. Within the year it had been 2.5. There were another seven days that were coldest after earlier records with a count of 5.75 for that. This brought to 25 the total count of this statistic for 1961-65, with reduction for ties, it could be said then that about a month's worth of such values existed in this short interval. What this suggests is that the urban heat island was just enough to mask the actual parity of the early 1960s to previous cold spells (and with a total of about 13 eventual record lows, sometimes these broke through). The two readings of 50F are two of six tied monthly minima for August (besides the dates mentioned, 1885 has two also). Records were also missed by one or two degrees on June 16th and June 17th (both 53F with records from the 1920s of 51 and 52) and on Oct 29th when 32F was one above the 1925 record. The year matched two of its record highs with record high minima -- 48F on Feb 8th, and 52F on Dec 31st (count 2.00). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _61F ___ Feb 8 ____ 1933 (60F) _________ 2017 (62F) __ 2017 (62F) ___ (1965 2nd (61F), 1933 3rd (60F), 1932,1990,2009 t-4th (58F)). _90F ___ May 4 ___ 1963 (86F) __________ 2001 (92F) __ 2001 (92F) __ (1965 2nd (90F), 1963 3rd (86F), 1944, 2015 t-4th (85F), 2018 6th (84F), 1942,49 t-5th (83F)) _92F ___ May 10 ____________1896 (92F) _1979 (94F) __ 1979 (94F) __ (1970 2nd (93F), 1896,1965 t-3rd (92F), 1889 5th (91F), 1874,1987 t-6th (90F)). _63F ___ Dec 31 ___ eventual record .. (1932 2nd (62F), 1992 3rd (61F), 1895, 1936, 1990 t4th (60F), 1884, 1906 t-7th (59F)). ______________________________________________________________ 1966 __ After a mild start, the winter became rather variable but some warmth returned at times. Parts of March and April were quite cold, then May remained cold throughout. A hot summer followed with many records set. The autumn turned more average although November saw a return to above normal temperatures that lasted to about mid-December. With ten records, and two of them ties, the count was 9.00. Of those ten, eight remain and two were ties during 1966, one has become a three-way tie as of 2002. That makes the count of surviving records 6.83, and the survival rate is therefore 75.9%. 1966 had the most records of any year after 1955 until 1990 and 1991 did slightly better (1988 came close also at 8.58). Also the number of surviving records is tied for tenth with 1895 with only these years ahead of it for final count -- 2001 (9.33), 1991 (8.5), 1953, 1990 (8.0), 1949 (7.58), 1931 (7.25), 1988 (7.08), 1998 (7.0). These ten records broke previous marks by an average of 2.3 F deg, and two were broken in 1973 and 1999 (average 1986) so that if all eight of the others were broken in the next seven months, that average would become 2014. The two records to fall were eventually surpassed by an average of 6.5 F deg which would be reduced to 1.3 F deg if the eight surviving records were included in the average. In addition, July 26 (97F) was only one degree below the already set 1940 record high. The average high in July was 90.3 deg F. There were no record low maximum values surviving from 1966. Also there were two record low minima set during the year, 36F on May 10th (tied 1947) and 47F on Sep 16th for a count of 1.50. As there were no other record lows set and later broken, that was also the count within the year, the lowest in the interval 1960 to 1969. The production of "coldest since records set" values was also down with the count being zero for that, Dec 4 (15F) was colder than the eventual value after the 1976 record and at the time was four degrees above the 1940 record (which became 6 deg after 1976 set the record at 9F). The year retains five record high minima, 52F on Jan 1st, 50F on Feb 11th and 45F on Feb 12th, and 54F on Dec 9th and 10th (the latter is shared with 1946). A tie with 1977 for Nov 10th (58F) was lost to 2020 (60F). That makes the present count 4.50, Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _62F ___ Jan 1 ___ eventual record .. (1919 2nd (61F), 1973,79,2005 t-3rd (60F), 1885 6th (59F), 1876,2019 t-7th (58F), 1985 9th (57F)). _58F ___ Feb 12 ___ 1932 (56F) _________ 1999 (62F) __ 1999,2018 (62F) __ (1966 3rd (58F), 1984,2009 t-4th (57F), 1932 6th (56F), 1877,80,1940.98 t-7th (54F)). _101F __ June 27 __ eventual record .. (1943 2nd (98F), 1963,83 t3rd (95F), 1941 5th (94F)) [June monthly max tied by 29th 1934] _100F __ July 2 ____ eventual record tied by 1901 .. (1941 3rd (98F), 1872 4th (96F), 1961,2002,18 t-5th (95F), 1911,13,63 t-8th (94F)). _103F __ July 3 ____ eventual record .. (1898,1911 t-2nd (100F), 1949 4th (99F), 1919 5th (97F), 1955,2002 t-6th (95F), 1872,1901,34,83 t-8th (94F)). _ 99F __ July 12 __ eventual record .. (1908 2nd (96F), 1935 3rd (95F), 1981,83,93,2010 t-4th (94F), 1944,2011 t-8th (93F), 1876,1905,16,52,79 t-10th (92F)). _101F __ July 13 __ eventual record .. (1952,54,94 t-2nd (96F), 1979,93 5th (95F), 1916 6th (94F), 1876,94,1981,82,83 t7th (93F)). _ 94F ___Aug 19 __ eventual record tied by 1914 and later by 2002 .. (1872, 1978 t-4th (92F), 1947, 2010 t-6th (91F)). _64F ___ Nov 25 ___1946 (63F) ____________1973 (65F) __ 1979 (73F) __ (2014 2nd (68F), 2001 3rd (66F), 1973,90 t-4th (65F), 1966 6th (64F)). _66F ___ Dec 9 ____ eventual record .. (1991 2nd (64F), 1980 3rd (63F), 1946,53 t-4th (61F), 1889,1924,1987 t-6th (60F)). __________________________________________________________________ 1967 __ There was a brief surge of very mild weather in late January as the "Chicago blizzard" low tracked north of the region. Most of February was quite cold, and March-April had variable temperatures with some brief warm spells. May was an unusually cold month. The summer started warm but most of July and August were cooler than average. September was quite dry at times and the autumn unremarkable in general, November turning rather cold. December 1967 then turned quite mild with 62F just below a record value. June 16 (96F) was one degree short of the 1891 record high. There were seven record highs set or tied for a count of 6.50, and of those three have survived to the present time, a survival rate of 46.1%. These seven broke existing records by an average of 3.4 F deg. The average year breaking four 1967 records was 1984, but if the three surviving records fell in 2022, then that would change to 2001. Four records were broken ultimately by an average of 2.0 F deg, which reduces to 1.1 F counting the survivors. There were four record low maximum readings, 20F on March 18th, 44F on May 7th and a benchmark 46F on May 24th. The average high in May 1967 was 63F compared to 71F for the thirty year interval ending in 1970. June 30th (after a generally warm month) had a low maximum of 65F. There were also three record low minimum temperatures that have survived to the present. 8F on March 19th was also a benchmark low, then 42F on May 26th with the previous day at the same value one above 1925's record, and 20F on Nov 15th (count 3.00). This was also the situation for record low minima during the year, but 1967 had the most "near misses" (coldest after records established) with a total of twelve days and a count of 9.67. (1976 ranks second with 8.58 from ten occasions with some tied). No longer worth drawing attention to 100% survival rates as these were becoming normal with so few established records later broken. There were three high minima that have survived, 54F on Jan 24th, 50F on March 11th (tied in 1977), 61F on April 2nd (count 2.50) with Dec 19th (44F) one degree below that day's record. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _68F ___ Jan 24 ___ eventual record .. (1989 2nd (61F), 1999 3rd (60F), 2019 4th (59F), 1894 5th (57F), 1887,1947,90 t6th (56F)). _60F ___ Jan 25 ___ eventual record .. (2010 2nd (57F), 1938,47,90 t3rd (56F), 1916,34 t6th (55F)). _58F ___ Feb 2 ___ 1933 (55F) _________ 1988 (59F) __1988 (59F) ___ (1967,73 t2nd (58F), 1989 4th (57F), 1970,99,2014 t-5th (56F), 1933,83 t-8th (55F).) _64F ___ Mar 3 ___________ 1961 (64F) _ 1991 (65F) __1991 (65F) __ (1961,67 t-2nd (64F), 1871,1923,72 t-4th (63F), 2002 7th (61F), 2004,07,20 t-8th (59F)). _72F ___ Mar 11 __1955 (67F) _________ 1977 (73F) _ 1977 (73F) _ (1967 2nd (72F), 2021 3rd (71F), 2016 4th (68F), 1955.86,90 t-5th (67F)). _81F ___ Apr 2 ___ eventual record .. (1963 2nd (80F), 1918 3rd (78F), 1934 4th (77F), 1946 5th (75F)). 2006,10 (68F). _76F ___ Apr 3 ___ 1892,1945 (75F) ____ 1981 (81F) _ 1981 (81F) _ (2002 2nd (77F), 1967 3rd (76F), 1892, 1945 t4th (75F)). ___________________________ 1968 __ There was bitter cold in early January but the winter trended towards more average conditions, and the spring turned quite warm until early May when cooler weather arrived. The summer of 1968 had occasional cool spells but averaged close to normal, then the autumn turned quite warm. The first three days of October were in the mid-80s but records are closer to 90F then. Three days near 80F mid-October also fell short. There were only two record highs set in 1968, and neither survived past 1990. They increased the previous records by an average of only 1.5 F deg and were surpassed by an average of 4.0 F deg. They were broken on average by 1984. 1968 is the first year in the study since 1926 to have no surviving records (1958 had no records to maintain). With a random expectation of 3.66, it had the fifth lowest ratio of actual to expected in the period 1901 to 1970 (55%, compared to 0% for 1958, 38% for 1960, 39% for 1909, and 49% for 1957; since 1968, only three years with no records and 1978, 1994 and 2003 have had a lower comparison with random expectation. The extinction date for 1968 records was Nov 29th, 1990. 1968 had three record low maxima, Jan 8th (13F), Jan 9th (14F) tied with 1970, and June 27th (61F) (count 2.50). The early January cold spell broke four minimum records, 2F on 8th, -1F on 9th, 3F on 11th and 2F on 12th (which tied 1886 and was later joined by 1981). The count was therefore 3.33 eventually from 3.5 at the time, and there were no further records of either low or high minima in 1968. There were three occasions with coldest since a record low minimum for a count of 2.5. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _82F ___ Apr 13 ___ 1945 (81F) _________1977 (88F) __ 1977 (88F) ___ (1968, 2018 t-2nd (82F), 1945 4th (81F), 1890 5th (79F), 2006 6th (78F)) _67F ___ Nov 29 ___ 1870 (65F) ________ 1990 (69F) __ 1990 (69F) ___ (1968 2nd (67F), 1991,2011 t-3rd (66F), 1870 5th (65F), 1905,27 t-6th (64F)). ________________________________________________________ 1969 __ The most dramatic weather event of 1969 had little effect on NYC (Hurricane Camille). There were no really persistent spells of any sort in this rather variable year, with just a few isolated warm spells and cold spells, and a lot of rather bland weather, possibly the result of widespread blocking in the hemispheric circulation. This promoted an active winter storm pattern especially in February and March. 1969 is the first year of which it can be said that all its records have never been broken, although one was later tied and another tied an existing record. That means the count for the year is 2.50 but the count of surviving records is 2.00, a survival rate of 80% (since one was reduced to a tie and another entered the list as a half-share). 1964 had achieved 83.3% (2.5 of 3 have survived but a tied record has been broken). These three 1969 values broke records by an average of 2.0 F deg. This is the first year (other than 1958 with no data to average) for which there is no average year breaking the records, the extinction dates would be May 29th, June 28th and Oct 20th of this coming year. Also the average amount by which these records have ultimately been surpassed is obviously zero. There is a very small count for record low maxima, 0.20 (a share of 70F on July 23rd). There were two record low minima in 1969, Oct 23rd (32F) and 24th (31F) for a count of 2.00. The previous day (Oct 22, 35F) provided the one occasion when 1969 was coldest after an established record (1940, 30F). The May 29 maximum record came with a record high minimum of 74F for one of May's overall hottest days. Another half-share came on Oct 3rd (68F tied 1954). (count 1.50) Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _97F ___ May 29 ___ eventual record .. (1987 2nd (96F), 1931 3rd (93F), 1919 4th (92F), 1935,91,2012,18 t-5th (89F)). _96F ___ June 28 ___ eventual record later tied by 1991 .. (1870,80,1963 t-3rd (94F), 1901,66,2010 t-6th (93F), 1943,76,93 t-9th (92F)). _80F ___ Oct 20 ___ eventual record tied by 1947 .. (1965 3rd (79F), 1938,53 t-4th (78F), 1916,36,39 t-5th (77F), 1979,84 t-8th (76F)). __________________________________________________ 1970 __ The weather was often rather cold from January to mid-April and then quite warm from then to October. A more average trend developed in the last two months of the year. Before two records set in late September (25th-26th), two other days were in range, 22nd (94F) and 23rd (93F) but these fell to 95F (1895, 1914) and 97F (1895). The next day at only 87F was also just two degrees short of the then existing record (89F 1959). The following two days did secure records (90F and 91F). The count for six days with records was 5.00, and of those, 2.50 have survived for a rate of 50%. These 1970 records broke existing marks by an average of 1.8 F deg, and three were broken on average by 1987. If the other three fall later this year, that would change the 1970 "extinction" average to a final value of 2004. The average by which three 1970 records have been surpassed eventually is 4.7 F deg, which reduces to 2.3 F if the three surviving records are included. The low maximum count is 1.50 from one tie (Jan 9th with 1968) and 47F on Oct 17th. 1970 has no surviving low minimum records and in fact set no records during the year either, the closest reading to an existing record then (which is still the case now) was within 1 degree (May 7th, 38F vs record of 37F from 1891), then a 2 deg difference (9F vs 7F in 1928, later tied in 1990, on Feb 27th) followed by three degrees for Jan 8th (5F vs 2F in 1968), also 57F June 28th and 36F Oct 17th (record 33F in 1886) as well as 37F on Oct 18th. The first, third and fifth of these occasions were three of seven times 1970 had the coldest value since a record was set (ties reduced that to a count of 4.75). (the other two occasions do not count since a record was tied later than 1970 and the statistic is only measured after all ties have happened). 1970 became the fourth year with no record lows during the year (1908, 1948, 1958 preceded it). The count of 2.50 high minimum records comes from the late September warm spell, those being 77F (Sep 23rd), 74F (Sep 24th) and 71F (Sep 25th tied with 1881). Values of 72F at either end of that spell both fell to 1895. Lows of 49F on Dec 2nd and 3rd did not survive as records with warmer spells that came in 1982 and 1998. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _56F ____ Feb 3 __ 1875 (52F) _________ 1983 (59F) __ 1991 (64F) __ (2006 2nd (62F), 1983, 2018 t-3rd (59F), 2020 5th (57F), 1970 6th (56F)). _93F ____ May 10 _1896,1965 (92F) ___ 1979 (94F) __ 1979 (94F) __ (1970 2nd (93F), 1896,1965 t-3rd (92F), 1889 5th (91F), 1874,1987 t-6th (90F)). _90F ___ Sep 25 ___ eventual record .. (1881, 1926, 2010 t-2nd (89F), 2017 5th (88F), 1930,1968 t-6th (87F), 1911,20,33,84 t-8th (86F)). _91F ___ Sep 26 ___ eventual record tied by 1881 .. (1895 3rd (90F), 1958 4th (89F), 1891,2007 t-5th (87F), 1930,1972 t-7th (86F)). _66F ___ Dec 2 ____ eventual record .. (1998 2nd (64F), 1912 3rd (61F), 1878,1932,68,80 t-4th (60F), 1895 8th (59F), 1914,42,51 t-9th (58F)). _64F ___ Dec 3 ___________ 1914 (64F) _ 1998 (69F) __ 1998 (69F) __ (2009 2nd (66F), 1914,70 t-3rd (64F), 1994 5th (63F), 1932,93 t-6th (62F)). _______________________________________________ decade of 1971-80 __________________________________ This decade saw a gradual decline in winter temperatures towards the years 1976 to 1979 although 1980 had a milder average. There were some notably warm springs, especially parts of 1975 to 1977 (although in each case confined to one or two of the three months), and summers compared near the long-term average. Unlike the previous three decades, autumn temperatures were often closer to average with just 1971 and November 1975 being notably warm, and a few Octobers in this decade were colder than most in the previous seven decades. Overall, the record production was similar to the previous decade with a total of 1970s. There was a total of 49.0 new records compared to 34 as the random expectation. Of those, 30.5 have survived so the overall survival rate increased a bit from earlier decades to reach 62%. Records were set or tied by this decade on 52 dates, with twelve being only ties of previous records, so the count was 45.50 (the shortfall of 3.5 is caused by cases where a record either fell twice (three) or was tied and then surpassed (one) the decade). That raises the survival rate defined as any record in the decade surviving on a given date to about 68%. Every year produced at least one record but 1978 waited until December to establish its one (temporary) record. With about 20 of the eventual record low minima, this decade kept up a similar pace to the 1960s ahead of the 1950s in this regard. 1971 __ Again, like the previous year, rather cold from January to April, then fairly warm especially into the autumn with October joining 1947 and 1963 near the top of the temperature rankings. This trend continued into December which was quite mild. Dec 11th (63F) was one degree short of tying the 1879 record. Otherwise, with just three records set and one a three-way tie, the count for 1971 is 2.33 (random expectation of 3.54) and becomes the first year to see a survival rate of 85.8% with two late records surviving. These three 1971 records broke previous marks by an average of 2.7 F deg. The one record broken fell in 1983, the average would become 2008 if the two surviving records fell later this year. The one record broken has been surpassed by 14 degrees which falls to 4.7 F counting the two surviving records. There are two surviving low maximum records, 12F on Feb 1st, and 60F on June 15th (tied 1916). The count is 1.50. After a record low of 28F on Nov 9th fell in 1976 (24F), there were no surviving low minimum records. This makes 1971 the last year of a total of twelve to see a count higher than zero reduced to zero. (four others had zero counts within the year) ... A reading of 7F on Jan 20th was two degrees above the 1946 record at that time (and tied the pre-existing 1940 record low for the date), but fell further behind with new low records of 4F in 1985 and eventually 0F in 1994. The record set in 1976 means that Aug 24th (55F) and Nov 8th (29F) where 1971 had a value three degrees above the record low are now tied as the closest that the year comes to any eventual record low. There were no occasions where 1971 had the coldest reading after an eventual record was established. Three high minimum records were set at similar times to the high maxima, 64F on Oct 28th, 67F on Nov 2nd (a monthly maximum and benchmark), and 48F on Dec 16th. Readings of 47F and 48F on Dec 10th-11th were a few degrees short of earlier set records but there was a very mild interval from Dec 7th to 17th where the lowest reading was 33F. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _63F ___ Mar 15 ________ 1913,45 (63F) _ 1983 (68F) _ 1990 (77F) _78F ___ Oct 29 ___ eventual record .. (1946 2nd (77F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1984 4th (74F), 2015 5th (73F), 1947,61,2014 t6 (72F)). _67F ___ Dec 16 ___ eventual record .. (1891 2nd (60F), 1893,2011 t-3rd (59F), 1877,1982,2008 t-5th (58F), 1959 8th (56F)). _________________________________________________________________________ 1972 _ In the region, the most notable weather event was Hurricane Agnes which brought flooding rainfalls to parts of PA, NJ and NY states (NYC had about seven inches of rain between the 16th and 25th of June). There were few periods of sustained warmth in 1972 and late March into April, June and October-November were quite cold (despite one warm day in April as noted). The year set five record highs and three have survived for a survival rate of 60.0%. The amount by which 1972 records broke earlier marks averaged 4.8 F deg. Two records were eventually surpassed by an average of 3.5 F deg which falls off to 1.4 F if the three surviving records are counted. Those two were broken in 1976 and 1991 (average 1984) which shifts to 2006 if the three surviving records fall at the next opportunity. There was also one record low maximum, 43F on Oct 19th. There were two record low minima, 49F on June 10th (tied 1881) and 46F on June 11th. A record low of 26F on Apr 8th was broken in 1982 (25F). A reading of 56F on July 6th was later surpassed by 54F in 1979 and 32F on Oct 20th fell to 31F in 1974. (count 4.50 within the year was thus reduced to 1.50). This was the last year in the data set to lose two or more record low minima to later records and was the first to lose three since 1950. The survival rate of 33.3% was the lowest for any year with any records to preserve since 1959 and from 1972 to the end of the data set (so therefore the lowest of non-zero-record years 1960 to present). ... The year managed two tied record high minima, 50F March 2nd (tied by 1991) and 72F on Sep 18th (tied 1905). (count 1.00). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _73F ___ Mar 1 ___ eventual record .. (2017 2nd (70F), 1902, 2004 t-3rd (63F), 1944,45,89,2018 t-5th (60F), 1871,1976 t-9th (59F)). _72F ___ Mar 2 ___ eventual record .. (1991 2nd (71F), 2004 3rd (67F), 1882,1973,2017 t-4th (64F) 1985,97 t-7th (61F), 1883 8th (60F)). _86F __ Apr 19 ___ 1914 (82F) _________ 1976 (92F) _ 1976 (92F) _ (2002 2nd (89F), 1985 3rd (88F), 1972 4th (86F), 2004 5th (85F), 1994 6th (84F), 1914 7th (82F)). _94F ___ Aug 24 ___ eventual record .. (1898,1947 t-2nd (93F), 1969 4th (92F), 1895,1905,19,53,64,74,80,95 t-5th (91F)). _92F ___ Sep 17 ___ 1915,41 (91F) _____ 1991 (93F) _ 1991 (93F) __ (1972 2nd (92F), 1915,41 t3rd (91F), 1942 5th (90F)). ________________________________________________________________________________ 1973 __ This was a warmer year with a notable late summer heat wave similar to 1953 although unable to break most of its daily records. There were eleven record highs, but six were ties of earlier values, for a count of 8.00. Of those, five have survived -- three were ties when joined by 1973, two of those have since gathered in a third tied year and another has only been tied more recently. That makes the count of surviving records 2.67 giving a survival rate of 33.3%. The average 1973 record's increase over previous marks was 1.7 F. The six that have fallen were overtaken on average by 1987, which would move to 2004 if the five surviving records fell later this year or early next year. The average surplus of eventual record highs to 1973 values was 4.0 F, which falls to 2.2 F if the surviving records are averaged in. There were no record low maximum readings. One record low minimum has survived (41F on May 18th). This was also the count (1.0) during the year. A reading of 58F on July 12th was one degree above the 1926 record. 30F on Nov 11th was two degrees above the existing record but is now six degrees warmer (24F in 2017). Two record high minima survive, 78F on Aug 30th (tied 2018) and 56F on Dec 5 (tied 1982). That gives a count of 1.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _60F ___ Jan 17 ____________ 1913 (60F) _ 1990 (63F) _ 1990 (63F) __ (1913,73 t-2nd (60F), 1889 4th (57F), 1870,1933 t-5th (56F), 1885,1924 t-7th (55F)). _66F ___ Jan 18 ___ eventual record later tied by 1990 .. (1986 3rd (63F), 1913, 2006 t-4th (58F), 1876,1932 t-6th (56F), 1915,37,51,99 t-8 (55F)). _58F ___ Feb 2 ____________ 1967 (58F) __ 1988 (59F) __1988 (59F) ___ (1967,73 t2nd (58F), 1989 4th (57F), 1970,99,2014 t-5th (56F), 1933,83 t-8th (55F).) _86F ___ Apr 22 __ eventual record tied by 1962, later by 2001 .. (1977,85 t-4th (85F), 1902 6th (84F), 1926,2004 t-7th (82F)). _95F ___ June 11 __ eventual record .. (1920,84 t-2nd (94F), 2000 4th (92F), 1970 5th (91F), 1893,1894,1967,76,91,2017 t-6th (90F)). _93F ___ June 12 __ eventual record tied 1933 and later by 2017 .. (1967 4th (92F), 1914,83 t-5th (91F), 1938,47,49,88 7th (90F)). _98F ___ Aug 30 ___ eventual record tied by 1953 .. (1921 3rd (95F), 1991 4th (94F), 1945 5th (93F), 1928, 1966, 2010 t-6th (92F)). _71F ___ Nov 14 ___ 1955 (68F) __________ 1993 (72F) __1993 (72F) __(1973,80 t2nd (71F), 1989 4th (70F), 2011 5th (69F), 1955 6th (68F), 1951,59,78 (67F)) _77F ___ Nov 15 ___ 1879 (73F) __________ 1993 (80F) __ 1993 (80F) __ (1973 2nd (77F), 1879 3rd (73F), 1956 4th (70F), 1902,89,94 t-5th (69F), 1951 8th (68F)) _65F ___ Nov 25 ___ 1946 (63F) ___________1979 (73F) __ 1979 (73F) __ (2014 2nd (68F), 2001 3rd (66F), 1973,90 t-4th (65F), 1966 6th (64F)). _66F ___ Dec 4 _______________ 1873 (66F) _1978 (67F) __ 1998 (74F) _ (1982 2nd (72F), 1978 3rd (67F), 1873,1973 t-4th (66F), 1994 6th (65F), 2001 7th (64F), 1941,2012 t-8th (62F)) __________________________________________________________________________________ 1974 __ The most recalled weather event of 1974 was the destructive tornado outbreak in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee into Alabama (latter less severe stages spreading closer to NYC but no damaging effects, and it was very warm at 75F but the record had been set in 1892 at 80F). The year had a subdued warm tendency interrupted by a cold October, and was able to set four records (just above the random expectation of 3.3) of which three have survived (75% survival rate). Jan 27th hit 66F but 1916 had already reached 69F on that date, and November 1st was quite warm (81F) but fell three degrees short of the 1950 record. The 1974 records increased previous values by an average of 3.5 F deg. The one 1974 record broken fell in 2008 (after being tied in 1984), so the average if the other three fall in the next year would be 2018. There was one low maximum record of 63F (June 25th) during a very cool four day interval June 25-28 (63F, 65F, 64F, 62F) where the next three days all missed record values by 2-3 deg. Oct 20th (44F) added another for a count of 2.00. April 10th had a one-third share of the minimum record (28F) as did June 26th (56F), then Oct 3rd (38F) and Oct 18th (35F) added two more one-third shares, followed by a full share of Oct 20th (31F) for five records with a count of 2.33. There were no other record lows but as some of the ties involved were later in the data set, the count at the time was 3.17, for a survival rate of 74%. There were also six occasions where 1974 had the coldest reading after a record, for a count of 4.50. There were no surviving high minimum records set in 1974. The closest values were 49F on March 5th (broken by 50F in 1979) and 44F on Jan 28th, the record until 46F (2002 tied 2018). The minimum of 60F on Oct 31st also remains two degrees below the already set value (62F in 1881, 1961). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _70F ___ Mar 4 ___ eventual record .. (1880,1946 t-2nd (69F), 1874 4th (64F), 2008 5th (63F), 1918,37,65 t-6th (61F)). _89F ___ Apr 29 __ eventual record .. (2017 2nd (85F), 1951 3rd (84F), 1888 4th (83F), 1903 5th (82F), 1938 6th (81F)). _92F ___ May 17 __ eventual record .. (1977,2017 t-2nd (90F), 1896 4th (87F), 1880 5th (86F), 1877,1943.69,86 t-6th (84F), 1906,65,91,2015 t-10th (83F)). _95F ___ June 10 __ 1959,64 (92F) ____________ 2008 (96F) _ 2008 (96F) __ (1974,84 t-2nd (95F), 1959,64,2000 t-4th (92F), 1906,67,73 t-7th (91F)). ___________________________________________________________________________________ 1975 _ After a mild winter the spring began quite cold, turning hot in May, and the summer was relatively warm although not far from average. The autumn also started cool and turned very warm in November with a string of records set. There were seven daily records set for a count of 6.33, and four have survived, one (Nov 9) being tied in 2020 for a count of 3.50 and a survival rate of 55.3%. These 1975 records broke previous marks by an average of 2.0 F deg. The average year to break three records was 2009, which would make the extinction date 2016 if the remaining four fell later this year. The three records from 1975 since broken have been surpassed by an average of 7.0 F deg, which reduces to 3.0 F if the four surviving records are counted. There was one low maximum record that survived from 1975, 64F on Aug 7th. (count 1.00). 1975 has a half share of the low minimum record on Sep 14th (46F) with 1911 (count 0.50) and otherwise came within 2 deg of existing records on March 9th (16F) and Aug 7th (60F). These have both since been further separated by later records (1996, and 1994) to 5 and 3 degrees. The last two days of October, before a record warm November, had two readings that were 2 deg above record low values (and this is still the case) -- 33F on Oct 30th and 31F on Oct 31st. ... ... Sept 15th (47F) was, and remains, separated by 3 F from the existing record of 44F in 1873 and the same is true for Oct 3rd (41F, record last tied in 1974 38F). There were also some quite cold days in late March and early April as arctic air poured in from snow-covered Ontario and upstate New York. There were two surviving high minima, a tied 78F on Aug 3rd (with 2006), and 63F on Nov 8th (count 1.50). A value of 61F on Nov 4th (then tied with 1961) was broken by one degree in 1982. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _63F __ Jan 11 ___ 1933 (59F) __________ 2020 (69F) __ 2020 (69F) __ (1975 2nd (63F), 1933,80 t-3rd (59F), 1983,2014 t-5th (58F), 1924 7th (57F)). _55F __ Jan 29 ____ 1887, 1950 (53F) ___ 2002 (69F) __ 2002 (69F) __ (1975 2nd (55F), 1887,1950,2006 t3rd (53F), 1876,1924,89 t6 (52F)). _93F ___ May 24 __ eventual record .. (1936 2nd (92F), 1964 3rd (91F), 1955,1995 t-4th (87F), 1880,84,1904,12,72,80,81 t-6th (86F)). _96F ___ Aug 3 _______ 1926,1936 (96F)__2005 (97F) _ 2005 (97F) __ 1926,36,75,2006 t2nd (96F)), 1957 6th (95F)). _78F ___ Nov 4 ___ eventual record .. (1961,87 t-2nd (77F), 1914,74,94 t-4th (76F), 1990 7th (73F)). _76F ___ Nov 8 ___ eventual record .. (2020 2nd (75F), 1945 3rd (72F), 1938 4th (71F), 1949,94 5th (70F), 1890 6th (69F)). _75F ___ Nov 9 ___ eventual record later tied by 2020 .. (1986 3rd (73F), 1895,1945,1950 t4th (72F), 1916 7th (71F)) ______________________________________________________________________________________ 1976 __ Temperatures went on quite a wild ride in 1976. January was cold and February very mild. April resumed the very warm trend, but May turned cool and the summer was generally rather cool to average. October and November were quite cold, with little change in that trend for December (or Jan 1977). The Feb and Apr warm spells set five records of which four survive, for a survival rate of 80%, and the five records broke previous values by an average of 5.6 F deg. The one record broken fell in 2002, if the other four were to be broken in 2022, then the average would change to 2018. The one lost record was surpassed by five degrees, making the average 1.0 F deg for all five. Among these records was the first of two April readings of 96F (the other one happened in 2002 when the 1976 record for same date fell). There was one low maximum record, 23F on Dec 3rd after November saw several close calls. May 19th (38F) established a benchmark record low minimum, and 50F on Aug 31st tied several other nights for coldest August minimum (not a benchmark as those other occasions were in the four previous days, in 1885, 1982, and 1986). Oct 29 had 29F and Nov 9th 24F (while not a benchmark, given the size of the urban heat island quite a significant temperature, 23F on Nov 5th 1879 was within a much smaller heat island at that point in time). Dec 3rd (9F) and 14th (12F) also set records for a total of 6 (count 6.00). This was also the count at the time, no records having been tied or broken since 1976. In addition, 1976 ranks second for coldest readings since records were set, with ten and a count of 8.583 (second to 1967, count 9.67). One of these is the -1F reading on Jan 23rd (coldest since -3F 1936). There were four record high minima, 49F on Feb 26th and 27th, and 68F, 67F on April 18th and 19th. The two previous days (66F and 70F) were records until broken later by 2002 (74F, 76F). The count is now 4.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _67F ___ Feb 17 ___ eventual record .. (2011 2nd (63F), 1981 3rd (62F), 1891 4th (59F), 1990,2006 t-5th (58F), 1921 7th (57F), 1946,48 t-8th (55F)). _67F ___ Feb 28 ___ eventual record .. (1903,97 t-2nd (62F), 1955,2018 t-4th (61F), 1996,2011,16 t-6th (60F), 1913,54 t-9 (59F)). _91F ___ Apr 17 ___ 1896 (88F) ________ 2002 (96F) _ 2002 (96F) _ (1976 2nd (91F), 1896 3rd (88F), 1959 4th (80F), 2004 5th (78F), 2005 6th (77F)). _96F ___ Apr 18 ___ eventual record .. (2002 2nd (91F), 1896 3rd (90F), 1964 4th (86F), 2008 5th (84F), 2016 6th (82F)). [Apr monthly max later tied by 2002] _92F ___ Apr 19 ___ eventual record .. (2002 2nd (89F), 1985 3rd (88F), 1972 4th (86F), 2004 5th (85F), 1994 6th (84F), 1914 7th (82F), 1886,1915 t-8th (81F)). ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1977 __ January was a very cold month but February warmed quickly leading to a generally very warm spring and summer with a spell of extreme heat in mid-July. The autumn was somewhat cooler than average. There were nine record highs set, three being ties of previous values for a count of 7.50. Of those, five have survived (count 5.00) for a survival rate of 66.7%. The 1977 records broke previous values by an average of 2.9 F deg, and the average year to break four records from 1977 is 1991. If the other five fell in the next year, that would change to 2008. The four broken records have been surpassed by an average of 5.0 deg F, which reduces to 2.2 deg F if the surviving records are counted. January set three low maximum records, 12F 17th, and 13F 18th and 29th. May 9th had a record low maximum of 44F (benchmark also) with snow observed in nearby areas including a trace at NYC. That cold outbreak was a brief affair between two long spells of very warm weather. That made four low maximum records (count 4.00). January set one low minimum record (-2F Jan 17th) and missed two others by one or two degrees (Jan 29th was 1F, record 0F in 1873). Another record came on April 9th with 25F (count 2.00). No other records were set and later broken, so the count was 2.0 during the year as well. The Jan 29th reading was one of two "coldest since records" and the other was 50F on June 8th (47F 1932 was the record value). Values of 39F and 36F on May 8th-9th would have qualified also as they were 2 and then 1 deg above 1947 record lows, but 2020 then set lower values of 36F, 34F. Also 2F on Jan 18th was a degree warmer than the existing record (1F from 1875), but 1982 went another degree lower than that to 0F. There were also one surviving high minimum reading, 50F Mar 11th (tied 1967) for a count of 0.50; the July heat wave had lows of 78F on several nights but records were in the low 80s. Another 1977 high minimum (tied 1966) was taken away by 2020 on November 10th. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _66F ___ Mar 9 ______________ 1921 (66F) _ 2000 (71F) __ 2016 (76F) _ (2020 2nd (72F), 2000 3rd (71F), 1921,77 t-4th (66F), 1913,73,2002 t-6th (65F)). _73F ___ Mar 11 __ eventual record .. (1967 2nd (72F), 2021 3rd (71F), 2016 4th (68F), 1955.86,90 t-5th (67F), 1879,2014 t-8th (66F)). _79F ___ Mar 30 ____________ 1962 (79F) __ 1998 (82F) __ 1998 (82F) __ (1962,77 t-2nd (79F), 1910,86 t-4th (78F), 1979 6th (76F), 1945 7th (74F)). _90F ___ Apr 12 __ eventual record .. (1996 2nd (80F), 1947 3rd (78F), 2008,17 t-4th (76F), 1965 6th (74F), 1945, 2014 t7th (73F)) _88F ___ Apr 13 __ eventual record .. (1968, 2018 t-2nd (82F), 1945 4th (81F), 1890 5th (79F), 2006 6th (78F), 1896, 2006,19 t7th (77F)). _96F ___ July 15 __ 1879 (95F) ___________ 1983 (98F) _ 1995 (102F) __ (1983 2nd (98F), 1997 3rd (97F), 1977 4th (96F), 1879 5th (95F), 1952,2013 t-6th (94F)). _98F ___ July 16 _____________ 1879 (98F)_ 1980 (99F) _ 1980 (99F) __ (1879,1977 t-2nd (98F), 1953,68,99 t-4th (97F), 1887,1900,83,88 t-7th (96F)). _102F __ July 19 __ eventual record .. (1930 2nd (98F), 1942,63,99 t3rd (97F), 1982,91,2008,13 t6 (96F), 1905,40 t10 (95F)). _104F _ July 21 __ eventual record .. (1930,80,91 t2nd (102F), 1926,57 t5th (100F), 1885 7th (99F), 1923,34,55 t8 (98F), 2011 11th (97F)). _____________________________________________________________________ 1978 __ This year is most widely recalled for the winter storm that hit the Great Lakes region with very strong winds, heavy snow and a record low barometric pressure around Jan 25-26. Although the temperature reached 58F during that event, New York City had a rather cold winter with a few significant snowfalls. Most of the year was either cool or near average and there was only one record high maximum, 67F on Dec 4th, which lasted only until 1982 had 72 degrees on the same date. This one record broke the previous mark by only 1.0 F deg. It was eventually surpassed by 6 F deg. The average year to break 1978 records was therefore 1982 and the extinction date is Dec 4, 1982 -- this replaces 1909 for fastest extinction (4 years vs 21). Beside the four years not to set any high maximum records (1958, 1992, 2004, 2014), 1978 has the lowest count tied with 2003, 2019 and (to date) 2021, no other years were held to one record. Since those other more recent years have retained their lone records, 1978 is the only "one and done" year. With the former record now 6 deg short, the 1978 temperature now closest to a record maximum is 82F on April 1st which was one short of the already set 1917 daily record. 70F on Nov 6th is within four of that day's record. The year also set one surviving low maximum, 62F on July 4th. A reading of 45F on May 5th was two degrees above the 1891 record. (count 1.00) There were no record low minima in 1978, during the year the closest approach was within 1 deg (58F July 4th) but this has since fallen back to 3 deg with 1986 at 55F. This now makes the closest approach 2 deg (51F June 14th, 49F in 1875). Oct 9th also has a 2 deg separation, 39F vs 37F (1888, and later tied in 1988). And Oct 18th joins the group with 37F, after three years shared a record of 35F. There was just a share of one high minimum, 78F on Aug 17th (tied in 2015). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _67F ___ Dec 4 ___ 1873,1973 (66F) ____ 1982 (72F) __ 1998 (74F) _ (1982 2nd (72F), 1978 3rd (67F), 1873,1973 t-4th (66F), 1994 6th (65F), 2001 7th (64F), 1941,2012 t-8th (62F)) _____________________________________________________________ 1979 __ There was quite a cold February and a more variable regime for most of the year with occasional brief warm spells. The year produced six record highs, of which five have survived, for a survival rate of 83.3%. The average by which 1979 records broke previous marks set was 4.2 F deg. The one record broken fell in 1998 when it was improved by 11 degrees. The average would change to 2017 if all five surviving records fell this year (or next as May 9-10 will be maintained). The average for records eventually surpassing 1979 falls to 1.8 F deg counting the five survivors. There was one record low maximum (64F) on Aug 12th. The year produced six record low minima (count 4.83): 0 deg F on Feb 18th, 46F on June 12th and a share of June 26th (56F), July 5th (53F) and July 6th (54F), Aug 17th (56F tied 1881). A reading of 3F on Feb 14th was one above the existing record from 1916 which would later be broken in 2016. The count during 1979 was 5.08 as there was also the fourth component of a four-way tie for Sept 20th (45F) broken in 1993 (44F). There were also nine record high minima (count 8.00) -- 50F Mar 5th, 58F Apr 15th (tied 1982), 72F May 10th, 79F July 26th, 64F Oct 21 (tied 1947), and 67F Oct 22nd, 23rd, then 61F and 62F on Nov 24th and 25th (the latter a benchmark until replaced by 63F on Dec 24th, 2015). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _75F ___ Mar 31 ___ 1920 (71F) ___________ 1998 (86F) _ 1998 (86F) _ (1979,86 t-2nd (75F), 1999 4th (74F), 2016 6th (73F), 1981 5th (72F), 1920 6th (71F)) _94F ___ May 9 __ eventual record .. (1936 2nd (92F), 1896, 2000 t3rd (91F), 1970 5th (90F)). _94F ___ May 10 __ eventual record .. (1970 2nd (93F), 1896,1965 t-3rd (92F), 1889 5th (91F), 1874,1987 t-6th (90F)) _88F ___ Oct 22 __ eventual record .. (1920 2nd (83F), 1975 3rd (78F), 1949,84 t-4th (77F), 1884,1936,2007,17 t-6th (76F)). _73F ___ Nov 24 ___ eventual record .. (2014 2nd (69F), 1931 3rd (68F), 1999 4th (66F), 1966 5th (65F), 1886 5th (64F)). _73F ___ Nov 25 ___ eventual record .. (2014 2nd (68F), 2001 3rd (66F), 1973,90,2004 t-4th (65F), 1966 7th (64F)). ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 1980 __ The spring and summer of 1980 were very warm across the southern half of the U.S., NYC occasionally got into warmer spells but was not always in the warmer air masses, at least not for prolonged periods, with frequent intrusions of cooler air. There were five record highs for a count of 3.83 (one ordinary tie and one three-way tie), and of those, three have survived with a count of 2.33, for a survival rate of 60.9%. These five records broke previous values by an average of 0.8 F deg. The two that have fallen were both broken by eventual record holders in 1993 and 2001 (average 1997), if the three surviving records are broken at next opportunity, then that changes to 2012. The two broken records were surpassed by an average of 2.0 F deg which reduces to 0.8 F counting the surviving records. 1980 had no record low maxima, 21F on leap year day was coldest since 12F in 1884 as was 26F on March 1st (since the record of 16F in 1886). There are two surviving record low minima, 47F on June 9th and --1F on Dec 25th (count 2.00). Feb 29th (12F) was the coldest leap year day minimum since the record of 4F set in 1884 and 10F on March 1st coldest since 5F in 1884. There were four surviving record high minima, 69F May 23rd (tied 1941), 82F July 21st, 80F Aug 8th, and 76F Sep 1st (part of a four-way tie) for a count of 2.75. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _90F ___ May 5 __ eventual record tied by 1949, 1955 .. 1930, 1934 t4th (89F), 1919 6th (88F), 1944 7th (87F), 2000 8th (86F). _99F ___ July 16 __ eventual record .. (1879,1977 t-2nd (98F), 1953,68,99 t-4th (97F), 1887,1900,83,88 t-7th (96F), 1952 11th (95F)). _101F __ July 20 __ eventual record .. (1991 2nd (100F), 1923 3rd (99F), 1957 4th (97F), 1942,52,2019 t-5th (95F), 1930,46,2008,17 t-8th (94F)). _96F ___ Aug 8 ___ 1896,1941 (95F) _______ 2001 (99F) _ 2001 (99F) __ (1980 2nd (96F), 1896,1941,1983 t3rd (95F), 1916,18,79 t6 (94F)). _71F ___ Nov 14 ______________ 1973 (71F)_ 1993 (72F) _ 1993 (72F) __(1973,80 t2nd (71F), 1989 4th (70F), 2011 5th (69F), 1955 6th (68F), 1951,59,78 (67F)) ___________________________________________________ decade of 1981-1990 _______________________________________ The pace of warming accelerated during this decade. December 1982 set a number of records (several of which have been replaced) but the more impressive surge of warmth came from 1987 to 1990 (and it continued into 1991) with 1988 and 1990 near the top of lists of records set and surviving. The decade's count was 52.91 records, out of which 31.41 have survived. These 64 in total (a count that includes two three- and one four-way ties which become more frequent near the end of the data) occurred on a total of 59 dates with 21 being ties for an actual date count of 47.91 (the 5.00 surplus comes from various duplicate efforts during the decade). 1981 __ This year was more often cold than warm, with only two records set in February and April, both have survived untied (count 2.00), and 1981 is therefore the first year in the data set that can lay claim to a 100% survival rate. The next two are 1994 and 1995. These two broke previous records by an average of 4.5 deg F. Their extinction will be determined entirely by future events, and that average would be March 11, 2022 if they fall next spring, and the average by which they have been surpassed is obviously 0.0 F deg (for the first time). The third closest reading to a record at the time was 3 deg lower on March 31st (72F) but now that has become 4 deg on several hot summer days since March 31st was lifted by 11 degrees in 1998. The random expectation of a number of record highs for 1981 was 3.23 so it was one of the few in the past half century to fall below that value. There was one record low maximum, 14F on January 4th (tied 1904) for a count of 0.50. The minimum of 2F on Jan 13th gives a count of 0.33 (tied with 1886, 1968). There were no other record lows set and later broken, so that the count within the year was also 0.33. A reading of 5F on Jan 4th was the coldest for that date since the record of -3F set in 1918. A closer approach to an older record was 58F on June 27th (55F 1940 the record) and also 59F Aug 17th (1881, 1979 tied at 56F). For record high minima, the count is 2.50, with two in late February and one in July (46F Feb 17th tied in 2011, 48F Feb 18th, and 80F July 9th). While breaking the 1936 heat wave low of 77F and the next year's 79F, the daytime high of 96F was 10 deg short of the 1936 all-time record on this date (and 4 short of 1937). This shows that in the modern urban environment, the summer heat is retained longer into the nights than was the case almost a century ago. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _68F ___ Feb 18 __ eventual record .. (2011 2nd (67F), 1890,2008 t-3rd (64F), 1880,2017 t-5th (63F), 1938 7th (60F), 1994 8th (59F), 1954 9th (58F)). _81F ___ Apr 3 ___ eventual record .. (2002 2nd (77F), 1967 3rd (76F), 1892, 1945 t4th (75F), 1921,32,64,74 t6 (71F)). ______________________________________________________________________ 1982 __ This year was generally cooler than average until mid-November, then the effects of a major El Nino event were felt with some very warm temperatures in December. It turned out that several more such Decembers would occur in subsequent years so that of the six records set, only two have survived, one had tied a 1936 record (Dec 26th) and another would be matched in 2008. The rest all fell to either 1998 or 2001 early in the month, or 1984 and 2015 near the end. Seven records were set (three were ties in 1982) for a count of 5.50. With two tied surviving records, that count is 1.00 for a survival rate of 18.2%. These 1982 records broke previous marks by an average of 3.0 F deg. The five since broken were surpassed on average by 2000, and that would change to 2006 if the two surviving tied records are broken this December. Before November, the closest 1982 had come to a daily record was 58F on Feb 1st which at the time was within 2 (1916 hit 60F) but is now 11 degrees short of the 1989 record. July 18th (98F), warmest day of 1982, remains three short of the 1953 record of 101F. Nov 3rd 1982 (74F) was one degree short of the 1936 record (and is now 5 degrees below 2003). The year also set four low maximum records, 30F April 7th is a benchmark low maximum, 39F April 9th part of a four-way tie, 55F set on May 24th, 55F on June 13th another benchmark low maximum (count 3.25). There were five record low minima, 0 deg F on Jan 18th, and 21F Apr 6th-7th (the latter also a benchmark), 25F Apr 8th, and a share of 50F (tying 1965,1986) on Aug 29th which is also a tied monthly minimum. The count is therefore 4.33. Within the year the count was 4.5 since 1986 tied later, and also 52F on June 13th came within 1F deg of the record set in 1953, one of six occasions in 1982 with a coldest since record set value (count 5.33). The year also managed to set four high minimum records that have survived, 58F Apr 25th tied with 1979, 62F Nov 4th, 52F Dec 2nd, 56F Dec 5th (tied 1973), and lost several others set in December to later years including 58F Dec 4th (to 59F 1998). The count here is 3.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _72F ___ Dec 4 ___ 1978 (67F) __________ 1998 (74F) _ 1998 (74F) _ (1982 2nd (72F), 1978 3rd (67F), 1873,1973 t-4th (66F), 1994 6th (65F), 2001 7th (64F), 1941,2012 t-8th (62F)) _63F ___ Dec 5 _____________ 1916 (63F) _ 2001 (70F) _ 2001 (70F) _ (1916,82,98,99 t-2nd (63F), 1960,94 t6rh (62F), 1973,2017 t-8th (61F)). _68F ___ Dec 6 ___ 1912,60 (64F) ________ 2001 (71F) _ 2001 (71F) __ (1982 2nd (68F), 1998 3rd (66F), 1912,60 t-4th (64F), 1951,53,94 t-6th (63F)) _64F ___ Dec 25 ____________ 1889 (64F) _ 2015 (66F) _ 2015 (66F) __ (1889, 1982 t-2nd (64F), 1940,2014 t-4th (62F), 1979,2020 t-6th (61F), 1964 8th (60F)). _63F ___ Dec 26 ___ eventual record tied by 1936 .. (1889 3rd (62F), 1895, 1964 t-4th (60F), 2015 6th (59F)) _65F ___ Dec 28 ___ eventual record later tied by 2008 .. (1954 3rd (61F), 2018 4th (60F), 1936,49,88 t-5th (59F), 1984 8th (56F)). _65F ___ Dec 29 ___ 1905,54 (57F) _____ 1984 (70F) _ 1984 (70F) __ (1982 2nd (65F), 1905,54,2018 t3rd (57F), 1948 6th (56F), 1901,40,96 t-7th (55F)). _______________________________________________________________________________________ 1983 __ This was the wettest year on record at NYC with almost double the normal average rainfall. It was generally a rather warm year but quite often the warmth was subdued, so that the count of record highs was only 5.50 from a total of seven. Four records have survived, all from September and three were tied with 1931 or 1895 when set so that the count of surviving records is 2.50 for a survival rate of 45.4%. The average by which 1983 broke existing records was 2.6 F deg. The three since broken were lost in 1989, 1991 and 1995 (average by actual dates late 1991) which would change to 2008 if the four September records were broken in 2021. The average eventual surplus of the three broken records from 1983 was 6.0 F deg which drops to 2.6 F counting the four survivors. There was one record low maximum of 13F on Dec 25th. (count 1.00) The minimum of 6F on Dec 24th was also a record low (count 1.00) although 4F on 25th did not break the 1980 record (-1F). The closest value to a record otherwise was 1, 2 and 2 deg (May 16-18, 43F, 41F, 43F). There were two record high minima in 1983 for a count of 1.33. 77F had a one-third share of Aug 20th with 1906 and 2015, and 78F on Sep 11th which was a benchmark (although 77F on 23rd 1970 probably more of an outlier). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _59F __ Feb 3 ___ 1970 (52F) __________ 1991 (64F) __ 1991 (64F) __ (2006 2nd (62F), 1983, 2018 t-3rd (59F), 2020 5th (57F), 1970 6th (56F)). _68F __ Mar 15 __ 1913,45,71 (63F) ___ 1989 (69F) __ 1990 (77F) __ (2019 2nd (75F), 1995 3rd (72F), 1989 4th (69F), 1983 5th (68F)). _98F ___ July 15 __ 1977 (96F) _________ 1995 (102F) _ 1995 (102F) __ (1983 2nd (98F), 1997 3rd (97F), 1977 4th (96F), 1879 5th (95F), 1952,2013 t-6th (94F)). _97F ___ Sep 10 ___ eventual record tied by 1931 .. (1989 3rd (94F), 1894, 1897 t-4th (93F) 1961, 1965 t6th (92F) 1884 8th (91F)). _99F ___ Sep 11 ___ eventual record tied by 1931 .. (2013 3rd (96F), 1895,1897,1961,1964 t4th (92F), 1912,89 t-8th (91F)). _94F ___ Sep 19 ___ eventual record .. (1906,46 t2nd (90F), 1947 4th (88F), 1882,1963,67 t-5th (87F)) _93F ___ Sep 20 ___ eventual record tied by 1895 .. (1985 3rd (88F), 1870,1946 t-4th (86F), 1968 6th (85F), 1878,82,1914,17,26,51 t-7th (84F)). ________________________________________________________________________ 1984 __ February was quite mild but did not break any daily records, while both Jan and Mar were rather cold. The spring was fairly average, and the summer had some early heat but was generally rather cool. Autumn warmed up gradually relative to normal and December turned very mild. There were five daily records set, one just a tie in June, then four in December (count 4.00), of which three have survived (one tied a previous record from 1937) (count 2.50) (survival rate of 62.5%). These five broke existing values by an average of 2.2 F deg. The two broken records were replaced in 2000 and 2008 (average Sep 2004) and if the three December records were broken this year, that average would change to 2014. The two replaced values were edged out by 1 deg each, and the overall average counting the three surviving records is therefore 0.4 F deg. There were two low maxima that have survived (count 2.00), both in September (4th, 66F, 28th 53F). The year produced no low minimum records, and came within 1F of record lows for March 10th (13F vs 12F in 1929) and Sept 16th (48F vs 47F in 1966). There were seven surviving high minima (49F Feb 15th, and 77F, 77F, 79F, 78F June 8th-11th, then 65F Oct 20th (tied 1916), and 55F Dec 29th). (count 6.50) Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _95F ___ June 10 __________ 1974 (95F) __ 2008 (96F) _ 2008 (96F) __ (1974,84 t-2nd (95F), 1959,64,2000 t-4th (92F), 1906,67,73 t-7th (91F)). _61F ___ Dec 17 ___ 1928 (60F) _________ 2000 (62F) __ 2000 (62F) ___ (1984 2nd (61F), 1928 3rd (60F), 2015 4th (59F)). _63F ___ Dec 18 ___ eventual record tied by 1937 .. (1928, 2006 t3rd (59F), 1990,2001,16 t-5th (58F)). _70F ___ Dec 29 ___ eventual record .. (1982 2nd (65F), 1905,54,2018 t3rd (57F), 1948 6th (56F), 1901,40,96 t-7th (55F)) _65F ___ Dec 29 ___ eventual record .. (1895,1990 t-2nd (60F), 1898,1948 t-4th (57F), 1910 6th (54F), 1884,91,1912,42,96 t-7th (53F)). ____________________________________________________________________ 1985 __ Although parts of January were cold, the winter overall was rather mild and the spring occasionally quite warm, then the summer was cool/average and parts of the autumn were also rather warm. This gave a few limited opportunities for records and the count was 4.50 for five daily records, three of which have survived (survival rate 66.7%). The 1985 records broke previous values by an average of 3.0 F deg. The two that have been surpassed fell in 2001 (May 1) and 2020 (Nov 10) for an average of 2011 (Feb). If the three surviving records are broken within the next year, that will change to mid 2015. The two broken 1985 records were surpassed by an average of 2.0 F deg which drops to 0.8 F deg counting the three surviving marks. There was one low maximum record set, 9F on Jan 21st (which broke 16F from 1888, the second lowest value is now 14F from 2019). Jan 21st (-2F) also broke the low minimum record also from 1888 (1F) with 2019 at 4F. There was a one-third share of April 10th (28F) for a count of 1.33. The tie included 1997 so that accounts for part of the different year count within 1985 (2.50), also there was a temporary record low minimum of 4F on the 20th, broken later by 0F in 1994. This was the second last record low minimum to fall, a later one occurred in 1986. This gives 1985 a survival rate of (1.33/2.50) 53.3%. High minimum record values included 55F Feb 23rd (although 54F 24th broken 58F 2017), a one-quarter share of Sep 5th (77F) and full ownership of Sep 6th (78F) and Nov 20th (62F) for a total of four and a count of 3.25. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _75F ___ Feb 24 ___ eventual record .. (2017 2nd (70F), 1930,61 t-3rd (65F), 2000 5th (64F), 1984 6th (63F), 1943, 2020 t-7th (62F)). _84F ___ May 1 _________ 1899 (84F) _ 2001 (87F) _ 2001 (87F) __ (2010 2nd (85F), 1899,1985 t-3rd (84F), 1944,90 t-5th (83F), 1894,1957,1993 t-7 (82F)). _94F ___ Sep 5 ___ eventual record .. (1961 2nd (93F), 1983 3rd (91F), 1884,98,1944,59,70,71 t-4th (90F), 1964,2018 t-10 (89F)). _73F ___ Nov 10 ___ 1931 (72F) _______ 2020 (74F) _ 2020 (74F) __ (1985 2nd (73F), 1931,2009 t-3rd (72F), 1966 5th (70F), 1949 6th (69F), 1895,1948,64 t-7th (68F)). _77F ___ Nov 20 ___ eventual record .. (1934,42,48,91 t2nd 74F), 1913,41 t-6th (72F), 1953 8th (71F), 1900,99 t9 (69F)). ______________________________________________________________ 1986 __ Although often near long-term average temperatures, there were occasional brief warm spells in the spring, summer and autumn months, leading to a count of six records (three ties) and a count of 4.50. Of these, two have survived, one was tied by 1986 so the count is 1.50 and the survival rate 33.3%. By this point, the expected count of records is down to 3.09 (the surviving count random expectation is always 2.4). These six broke (or tied) previous values by an average of only 0.7 F deg. The four that were later surpassed went in 1987, 1998, 1999 and 2010 (average 1998) but that would become 2007 if the two surviving records fell in the next year (May 6 did not recently). The four broken records have been surpassed eventually by an average of 5.25 F deg which would be reduced to 3.5 F counting the two surviving values. 63F on Jan 18th came within 3 deg of the existing record (1973 since tied 1990), 59F on Jan 22nd within two of the 1916,1959 tied record, and 75F Mar 26th within one of the 1922 record (later broken in 2021, so now 7 deg lower than that). 63F on Nov 26th was within four of the 1946 record. There were no record low maximum values in 1986. The year had three low minimum records, 55F on July 4th and another share of the 50F on Aug 29th (tied 1965,82) then 45F on Sep 17th for a count of 2.33. The year's count originally was 3.33, as a record was also set on Nov. 13th (24F), later broken in 2019 (23F). This gives a survival rate for 1986 of 70% -- this will be the last year where survival rate is mentioned, since all later years have either (a) no records or (b) all surviving low minimum records. After 1986, about 24 daily low minimum records were set and none have later been broken. In that 35-year interval there would be about 84 records set at random, so the warming trend has eaten into the production rate by a noticeable factor of about 3.5 : 1. This warming trend in addition to the short time available also makes it less likely that any given new record would be broken. However, since this last broken record low minimum, a total of 26 record highs have been broken (from 1987 to 2017). High minimum records included 45F Jan 19th, 52F Mar 26th (tied by 2021), May 19th (68F), for a total of three and a count of 2.50. Also on May 30th 73F set a record but that was broken the next year (like the max) by 74F 1987. The minimum of 69F to go with the record high set Sep 30th was one degree short of the 1959 high minimum record (70F). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _75F ___ Mar 31 __________ 1979 (75F) _ 1998 (86F) _ 1998 (86F) _ (1979,86 t-2nd (75F), 1999 4th (74F), 2016 6th (73F), 1981 5th (72F), 1920 6th (71F)) _92F ___ May 6 __ eventual record tied by 1949 .. (1930 3rd (91F), 1918 4th (90F) 1934,39,2000 t5 (89F)). _94F ___ May 30 ___ 1871,1942 (92F) __ 1987 (97F) __ 1987 (97F) __ (1986 2nd (94F), 1871,1942 t3rd (92F), 1931 5th (91F), 1895,1969,1991,2013 t6th (90F)). _98F __ July 6 _____________ 1911 (98F) __ 1999 (101F) _ 2010 (103F) __ (1999 2nd (101F), 1911,86 t-3rd (98F), 2020 5th (96F), 1908 6th (95F)). _98F ___ July 7 ____ 1934 (97F) __________2010 (100F) _ 2010 (100F) __ (1986,1993 t2nd (98F), 1934,1994,2012 4th (97F)). _89F ___ Sep 30 ___ eventual record .. (1905 2nd (88F), 1921 3rd (87F), 1927 4th (85F), 1952,54 t5th (83F) 1881,1959 t7th(82F) __ __ __ __ __ __ 1922 9th(81F), 1939,1960 t10th (80F), 1901,2015 t12th (79F)). (unusual late appearance for post-1990 on this date). _________________________________________________ 1987 __ Temperature trends began to rise during 1987 leading into one of warmest five year intervals (1987 to 1991) for both averages and record temperature production. However, 1987 did no better basically than the previous three years had done in setting records at NYC, with five set (two tied earlier values) for a count of 3.83, and three of these have survived (one was tied in 1987 and tied again in 2002 to become a one-third share) so the count of surviving records is 2.33. That yields a survival rate of 60.8%. These five records surpassed earlier values by an average of 3.0 F deg. The two since broken were both overtaken in July 1999 and if the three others fell within the next year, that average would change to 2012. The two were broken by an average of 2.5 F deg which reduces to 1.0 F counting the surviving records. In addition to the records, Nov 4th (77F) came within one degree of the already set 78F from 1975. 1987 had four low maximum records, the first came just two days after the high maximum noted for Mar 8th; Mar 10th saw 28F. This was the fastest reversal in either direction for record maximum values. Previously it had been five days for high to low May 12-16 1881 and Aug 6-11, 1931 and three for low to high (June 22-25, 1952). (note only eventual records were checked for this, there may have been faster transitions for temporary records later broken, and these values were not challenged since 1987). Then May 4th (48F) tied 1871 and July 7th (71F) added a one-third share, with 33F on Nov 11th the final record. The count was thus 2.83. There were no record low minimum values for 1987, and the closest to an existing and surviving record low is within 2 deg (March 11th, 16F; Oct 4th, 39F; and Nov 21st, 18F). Two others were within two degrees (40F on Oct 14th, and 30F on Nov 11th) but the margin has widened with lower values becoming new records after the fact (37F 1988, 24F 2017). Three high minimum records survive; 54F on Mar 8th (the minimum was three degrees higher than the record value on March 10th), then 74F and 76F on May 30th-31st (count 3.00). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _76F ___ Mar 8 ___ eventual record .. (2012 2nd (71F), 2016 3rd (67F), 1878 4th (65F), 2009 5th (64F)) _97F ___ May 30 __ eventual record .. (1986 2nd (94F), 1871,1942 t3rd (92F), 1931 5th (91F), 1895,1969,1991,2013 t6th (90F)) _94F ___ July 24 ________ 1910,33 (94F) _ 1999 (97F) _ 1999,2010 (97F) _ (1910,33,87,2016 t-3rd (94F), 1929,44 t-7th (93F)). _95F ___ July 25 ___ 1873,85,1944 (94F) __ 1999 (99F) __ 1999 (97F) __ (1987 2nd (95F), 1873,85,1944,2001 t3rd (94F) 1870,92,1930,39,2010,16 t7th (93F)) _94F ___ Aug 18 ___ eventual record tied by 1913 and later by 2002 .. (1956,1995 t-4th (92F), 1872,1922,1937,1966 t-6th (91F)). ___________________________________________________________________________ 1988 __ This was a very warm year and discussion of "global warming" began to emerge into the mainstream of society around this time (Dec 1982 was probably where it first began to get noticed). The year set 11 records for a count of 8.58 (two tied, one a three-way tie and another a four-way tie). Compared to the expected count of 3.05, this was 281% of expected, ranking tenth, and exceeded since then by 2001 (468%), 1990 (384%), 1991 (337%) and 1998 (303%). Previous years that exceeded 1988 in this regard were 1913 (325%), 1949 (318%), 1945 (299%), 1938 (297%), and 1931 (285%). The eventual record count of 7.08 from nine surviving records ranks seventh, behind 2001 (9.33), 1991 (8.5), 1953 and 1990 (8.0), 1949 (7.58) and 1931 (7.25). The summer of 1988 was very hot and accounted for most of the year's records. They broke previous values on average by only 1.3 F deg, for the two records that did not survive, one was broken the following year 1989 and one lasted until 2002 (which was again broken by 2005). That would be an average of late 1995 but that changes to 2016 if the nine surviving records were all broken in the next year. The two were surpassed eventually by an average of 4.0 F deg which reduces to 0.7 F counting the nine survivors. There were three low maximum records, a tie for Jan 14th (17F) with 1893, and a benchmark of 45F on Oct 8th, then 20F on Dec 12th. (count 2.50). Four record low minima were set, three at 37F, on Oct 8th, 9th (tied 1888) and 14th, then 5F on Dec 12th. The count was 3.50. There were also six occasions with a coldest reading since a record low. Record high minima include 50F (Feb 1st), 79F (July 11th), 80F (Aug 12th), and 81F (Aug 15th) -- count was 4.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _62F ___ Feb 1 ___ 1916 (60F) ________ 1989 (67F) _ 1989 (67F) __ (1988,2012 t-2nd (62F), 1916 4th (60F), 2016 5th (59F), 1982 6th (58F)). _59F ___ Feb 2 ___ eventual record .. (1967,73 t2nd (58F), 1989 4th (57F), 1970,99,2014 t-5th (56F), 1933,83 t-8th (55F).) _76F ___ Mar 24 __ eventual record .. (1913,39 t2nd (72F), 1987 4th (71F). 2000 5th (69F), 1994 6th (68F)). _96F ___ June 15 __ eventual record tied by 1891 and later by 1994 .. (1956,87 t-4th (94F), 1945,52,57 t-6th (93F), 1899, 1983,1991 t-9th (92F)). _97F ___ June 21 __ eventual record tied by 1953 .. (1923 2nd warmest (96F), 1949 3rd (95F), 1941, 2012 t-3rd (94F), 1966 5th (93F)). _98F ___ June 22 __ eventual record .. (1941 2nd (96F), 1921 3rd (95F), 1943 4th (94F), 1888 5th (93F), 1949,65,81,97 t-6th (91F)) _98F ___ July 11 __ eventual record .. (1911,93 t-2nd (97F), 1936,66,81,2010 t4th (94F), 1876,1944,87 t-8th (93F)). _98F ___ July 30 __ eventual record tied by 1917,1933,1940 .. (1954 5th (96F), 1913,1929,1949,2002 t-6th (95F), 1886,1947,1950 t-10 (94F)). _96F ___ Aug 13 ________ 1881,1944 (96F) _ 2002 (98F) __ 2005 (99F) __ (1881,1944,1988,2016 t-3rd (96F), 1947 7th (95F)). _99F ___ Aug 14 __ eventual record .. (1918,2005 t-2nd (96F), 1944,2002 t-4th (95F), 1985,2016 t-6th (94F), 1872,1908,43,47 t-8 (93F)). _97F ___ Aug 15 __ eventual record .. (1938 2nd (96F), 1944,47,85 t-3rd (95F), 1959,70 t6th (94F), 1993 8th (93F)). _____________________________________________________________ 1989 __ While warmth was frequent again, this year had little luck at setting records, managing a total of just three (count 3.00). Two have survived, although one was later tied in 2011, reducing the count to 1.50, and the survival rate to 50%. This is the lowest survival rate of any year to the end of the data set except that three of those had no records (1992, 2004, 2014). These three records improved on previous values by an average of 4.0 F deg. The most distant record set among these was in 1934 (the others were 1983 and 1988). The one record to fall went the next year (1990). If the other two are broken in 2022, then the average will become 2011. That one record was surpassed by 8.0 F deg, which reduces to 2.7 F if we count the two survivors. December 1989 was quite cold and this is when one low maximum record was set (18F on Dec 22nd). There was one record low minimum, 57F on Aug 9th (tied 1919, count 0.50). Dec 23 (9F) was within three degrees of the record (6F from 1983). There were seven occasions with a coldest reading since a record (count 6.50). In addition, 1989 produced two record high minima, 44F (Jan 30th), and 61F (Nov 15th) (count 2.00). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _67F __ Feb 2 ___ eventual record .. (1988,2012 t-2nd (62F), 1916 4th (60F), 2016 5th (59F), 1982 6th (58F)). _69F __ Mar 15 __ 1983 (68F) _______ 1990 (77F) __ 1990 (77F) __ (2019 2nd (75F), 1995 3rd (72F), 1989 4th (69F), 1983 5th (68F)). _77F ___ Mar 18 __ eventual record later tied by 2011 .. 1934 3rd (71F), 1969,99 t4 (70F), 1927,2010 t-6th (69F), 1905,45,66 t-8th (67F). ______________________________________________________________________________________ 1990 __ Another very warm year, with very early summer-like warmth in mid-March setting three records, out of the annual total of 13 (three ties made the count 11.50). Ten of the records have survived, four being ties so that the count is 8.00. Compared to the expected count of 2.99, this was 384% of expected, ranking second behind only 2001 (468%). The eventual record count of 8.00 is tied third with 1953, behind only 1991 (8.5) and 2001 (9.33). These 1990 records improved on previous values by an average of 3.3 F deg, but March 13th (85F) was 15 deg higher than previous (1929, 70F), perhaps the largest single increase in daily records, although the supremacy factor now is 11 deg as 2012 hit 74F on same date. Of the three that have been broken, these were in 2003, 2011 and 2015, for an average of 2010. If the other ten were to fall in the next year, the average would shift to 2019. The three records broken have been surpassed by an average of 3.7 F deg, which reduces to 0.8 F if the ten surviving records are included. There were two record low maximum readings on July 12th (67F) and Aug 20th (68F). One record low minimum temperature in 1990 was a tie (with 1928, Feb 26th, 7F) and another was untied, 44F on Sep 18th for a count of 1.50. There were seven record high minima, one tied for a count of 6.50. These were: 46F on Jan 17th, 55F on March 16th, 53F on March 17th, 69F on Apr 28th (tied with 2009), 69F on Oct 13th, 68F on Oct 14th, and 57F on Dec 23rd. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _63F ___ Jan 17 __ eventual record .. (1913,73 t-2nd (60F), 1889 4th (57F), 1870,1933 t-5th (56F), 1885,1924 t-7th (55F), 1873,1949,95 t-9th (54F)). _66F ___ Jan 18 ___eventual record tied by 1973 .. (1986 3rd (63F), 1913, 2006 t-4th (58F), 1876,1932 t-6th (56F), 1915,37,51,99 t-8 (55F)). _63F ___ Feb 9 ____eventual record .. (1949 2nd (60F), 2001 3rd (58F), 1960 4th (57F), 1991 5th (55F), 2005 6th (54F)). _61F ___ Feb 10 __ eventual record later tied by 2001 .. (1949 2nd (60F), 1898, 2001 t-3rd (58F), 1955 5th (57F), 1909 6th (56F), 2002 7th (55F)). _85F ___ Mar 13 __ eventual record .. 2012 2nd (74F), 1995 3rd (71F), 1929,2020 t4th (70F), 1946 6th (68F), 1902,57 t7th (67F). _77F ___ Mar 15 __ eventual record .. (2019 2nd (75F), 1995 3rd (72F), 1989 4th (69F), 1983 5th (68F), 2007 6th (67F)). _82F ___ Mar 16 __ eventual record .. 1935 2nd (77F), 1945 3rd (76F), 1971 4th (69F), 2003 4th (68F). _90F ___ Apr 28 __ eventual record later tied by 2009 .. (1938,62 t3rd (89F), 1969 5th (86F), 1983,2017 t6 (85F)) _78F ___ Nov 3 ____ 1936 (75F) ________ 2003 (79F) __ 2003 (79F) __ (1990 2nd (78F), 1936 3rd (75F), 1974,1982,2017 t4 (74F), 1953 6th (73F)). _69F ___ Nov 28 ___________ 1896 (69F) _ 2011 (70F) _ 2011 (70F) __ (1896,1990 t2nd (69F), 1973 4th (68F), 1979,93,94 t5th (66F), 2001 8th (65F), 1984,2015 t-9th (64F)). _69F ___ Nov 29 ___ eventual record .. (1968 2nd (67F), 1991,2011 t-3rd (66F), 1870 5th (65F), 1905,27 t-6th (64F)) _66F ___ Dec 23 ___ eventual record tied by 1891 .. (1875,2013,2015 t-3rd (64F), 1931 6th (63F), 1949 7th (62F), 2007 8th (61F)). _63F ___ Dec 24 ___ 1941 (61F) ________ 2015 (72F) __ 2015 (72F) __ (1990,96 t-2nd (63F), 1941 4th (61F), 1891 5th (60F)). _________________________________________________________ decade of 1991-2000 _____________________________________________ In the warming climate of the 1990s, a total count of 45.66 was similar to previous decades but by now, the random expectation had fallen to around 28 total records. Of the 45.66, 35.91 have survived. The 54 records set including ties were set on 51 dates, with fifteen being ties (including two three-way and two four-way ties created in the decade, one changing a three-way to a four-way tie), for a count of 43.33. The additional 2.33 were from three cases where one year in the decade broke or tied another year's record set earlier in the decade. Although the decade is well represented, the 1940s and early 1950s were slightly more productive. 1992 had no new records, the most productive years were 1991 and 1998. The production of record low minima fell off sharply to a total of only seven during this decade. Four of the ten years did not produce any new ones. 1991 __ The two-year interval 1990-91 had more surviving records than any other pair of years, and 1991 ranked second to 2001 which had 9.33 -- from a total of twelve daily records (count 10.00), nine have survived, the count being 8.50. This is a survival rate of 85% which is the highest so far other than 1981 at 100% and 1971 at 85.8%. As noted for 1988, 1991 is ranked third in terms of outperforming random expectation (337% behind 1990 at 384% and 2001 at 468%). The average 1991 record broke previous values by 2.1 F deg. The three that have fallen were surpassed in 1997, 2008 and 2011 (average 2005). If the other nine were broken in the next year, that would change to 2017. The three surpassed were increased by an average of 5.3 F deg, which would fall to just 1.3 F deg if the survivors were included. Another record was narrowly missed on March 2nd (71F one degree short of the 72F of 1972). 100F on July 20th and 102F on July 21st were unable to break slightly higher previously set records (101F 1980, 104F 1977). Also 92F on Sep 16th was one short of the 1915 record. 74F missed by 3 deg on Nov 20th and 64F by 2 deg on Dec 9th. There were no record low maxima or minima in 1991. The closest values to records were 72F (max, July 29th) within 3 of the record of 69F in 1884, and 53F (min, Sept 2nd) within 2 of the record (51F 1886). A total of nine days (count 8.00) set high minimum records: 46F on Feb 4th, 51F on Feb 5th, 50F (tied 1972) Mar 2nd, 63F Apr 7th, 66F Apr 8th, 68F Apr 9th (also a benchmark), 64F May 16th (tied 1879), 77F Sep 17th, 62F Nov 21st. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _64F ___ Feb 3 __ eventual record .. (2006 2nd (62F), 1983, 2018 t-3rd (59F), 2020 5th (57F), 1970 6th (56F)). _68F ___ Feb 4 __ eventual record .. (2019,20 t-2nd (61F), 1883 4th (54F), 1914,28,2006 t-5th (53F)). _70F ___ Feb 5 __ eventual record .. (1890 2nd (68F), 2019 3rd (65F), 1962,93 t-4th (56F), 2006,20 t-6th (55F), 1943,2005 t-7th (53F) _58F ___ Feb 6 ____________ 1938 (57F) _ 2008 (68F) __ 2008 (68F) __ (1938,1991 t2nd (58F), 1896 4th (57F), 1960 5th (56F)). _66F ___ Feb 22 ___________1874 (66F) _ 1997 (69F) __ 1997 (69F) __ (1874,1991 t-2nd (66F), 1990 4th (63F), 1925,74,85 t-5th (62F), 1943 8th (61F)). _65F ___ Mar 3 ___ eventual record .. (1961,67 t-2nd (64F), 1871,1923,72 t-4th (63F), 2002 7th (61F), 2004,07,20 t-8th (59F)) _90F ___ Apr 8 ___ eventual record .. (1929 2nd (88F), 1871 3rd (85F), 1959 4th (83F), 1999,2010 t-5th (80F), 2019 7th (79F), 1954 8th (77F)). _86F ___ Apr 9 ___ eventual record .. (1871 2nd (83F), 2013 3rd (82F), 2001 4th (78F), 1970,2002 t-5th (76F), 1981 6th (75F), 1968 7th (74F)). _96F ___ June 28__ eventual record tied by 1969 .. (1870,80,1963 t-3rd (94F), 1901,66,2010 t-6th (93F), 1943,76,93 t-9th (92F)). _99F ___ July 23 ___________ 1955 (99F) _ 2011 (100F) _ 2011 (100F) __ (1955,91 t-2nd (99F), 2016 4th (96F), 1918,52,78 t5th (95F)) _93F ___ Sep 17 ___ eventual record .. (1972 2nd (92F), 1915,41 t3rd (91F), 1942 5th (90F), 2015 6th (89F)). _70F ___ Nov 30 ___ eventual record .. (1933, 2006 2nd (69F), 1927 4th (67F), 1919 5th (64F), 2005 6th (63F)). _________________________________________________________ 1992 __ 1992 had a very cool summer, rather cool weather much of the time after a mild winter, and cooling was blamed on a moderate dust veil event from Pinatubo the previous year. A notable event was the snowstorm across the northeastern U.S. around Dec 9-10 with strong coastal winds. 1992 became the second year not to set any daily high maximum readings, joining with 1958. Later, 2004 and 2014 would join the no-hitters club. The closest calls to record highs in 1992 were as follows: 86F (May 2nd) __ within 3 (89F 1913) until 2001t2018 (90F) now within 4 F. 93F, 92F (May 22-23) _ within 3 (96F 1941), 2F (1964 94F). 71F (Nov 23) __ within 1 of 1931 record 72F 61F (Dec 31) __ within 2 of 1965 record 63F Just for interest I checked the starter records and if 1992 had been in the starter era, it would have set those five records (May 2nd a tie with 1899) plus five others: 62F (Jan 14th), 64F (Mar 9th), 89F (May 21st), 93F (July 14th), 58F (Dec 17th) for a count of 9.5, which was below 16 starter years and ahead of 16 (although below the average of 11.4). So it could be said that the weather in 1992 was fairly typical of the late 19th century. If 1992 had been a starter year, its extinction date would have been May 23, 1964. Despite the generally cool trends, the year set only three low maximum values, 72F on July 17th and 70F on July 23rd, part of an eventual five-way tie, and 66F on Aug 15th. (count 2.20) There were no record low minima in 1992, although the summer had frequent cool nights that were within a few degrees of records, the closest calls being 53F on June 22nd (record 52F 1897, 1940), and 59F on July 23rd (record 58F 1871, 1880), then also 30F on Nov 8th (record 29F 1886, later tied in 2019). In addition 1992 produced seven readings that were coldest since record values (count 6.50). There was also a tie for one record high minimum (58F on Nov 22nd, tied 1931) (count 0.50). ____________________________________________ 1993 __ This year is best remembered for the "Blizzard of 1993" which was a powerful east coast storm moving slightly inland to the west of NYC around March 13-14, 1993. This brought snowfalls of 10.6" to NYC with record daily precipitation indicating some sleet and rain during the event too. Further west 20 to 30 inch snowfalls were widespread in the higher ground of the mid-Atlantic and inland northeastern states. Like the blizzard of 1888, this snowstorm was followed by some record low daily temperatures. Meanwhile, the winter had started out mild, then turned quite cold in February and the first half of March. The summer was hot at times and set a few records, and the autumn near average with a burst of warmth in mid-November. The winter of 1993-94 would turn cold just near the end of December, until then temperatures were fairly average. The year had eight record highs, three of them ties, for a count of 6.50. Of those, six have survived, two as ties (which they became in 1993), for a count of 5.00. That is a survival rate of 76.9%. These 1993 records broke previous values by an average of 1.1 F deg. Two records broken fell in 1994 and 2010, an average of 2002. If the other six were to be defeated this coming year, that average would become 2017. The two were surpassed by an average of 2.5 F deg which reduces to 0.6 F deg if the six survivors are included. Between two record highs set or tied in 1993, came July 9th also 101F but that was against the all-time record of 106F from 1936. Also 64F on Jan 4th was two degrees short of the 1950 record on that date. There were no record low maxima in 1993. A reading of 14F on March 15th set a daily record, replacing 15F from 1916. A second low minimum record was 44F on Sep 20th (count 2.00). 38F on Oct 14th was one degree above the record recently set in 1988 (37F). There were three record high minima, 76F on June 19th, and 80F on July 8th and 10th. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _64F ___Jan 5 ___ eventual record tied by 1950 .. (2007 3rd (62F), 1874 4th (59F), 1916 5th (58F), 1997 6th (57F)) _92F ___May 11 ___ eventual record .. (1896 2nd (91F), 1881,1953 t-3rd (90F), 1965,1970 t-5th (88F), 1985,2001,04 t-7th (86F)). _95F __ June 19 ___ 1929 (93F) _________ 1994 (98F) _ 1994 (98F) __ 1993 2nd (95F), 1929 3rd (94F), 1962.1995 4th (93F), 1873,1943.57 t6th (92F)). _98F ___ July 7 _____________ 1986 (98F) _ 2010 (100F) _ 2010 (100F) __ (1986,1993 t2nd (98F), 1934,1994,2012 t-4th (97F)). _100F __ July 8 ___ eventual record .. (1890,1937 t2nd (98F), 1936,88 t-4th (97F), 1962,71 t-6th (96F)) _102F __ July 10 __ eventual record tied by 1936 .. 1937 3rd (100F), 1911,1988 t-4th (99F), 1926 6th (97F)). _72F ___ Nov 14 ___ eventual record .. (1973,80 t2nd (71F), 1989 4th (70F), 2011 5th (69F), 1955 6th (68F), 1951,59,78 (67F)) _80F ___ Nov 15 ___ eventual record .. (1973 2nd (77F), 1879 3rd (73F), 1956 4th (70F), 1902,89,94 t-5th (69F), 1951 8th (68F)). ________________________________________________________________ 1994 __ The year started with a very cold month and February stayed rather cold, but most of the other months of 1994 were either near average or slightly above normal. This only resulted in two record highs, in mid-June, both of which have survived. June 15th was already tied with two other years at the time (1891, 1988) so the count for records set and maintained is equal (1.33) and the survival rate is 100% (the second such occurrence after 1981). With a production of only 46% of random expectation (2.90), 1994 produced at a lower rate than all other years except the four with no records (1958, 1992, 2004, 2014) and these others: 2019 (41%), 1909 (39%), 1960 (38%), 1873 (37%), 1875 (33%), and 1882 (31%). The two records set improved in one case by 3 deg (the other was a tie) for an average of 1.5 F, and as there is no average year breaking them, or higher values, the other statistics are 0 F deg and June 17, 2021 if the two records both fall in June. December had several mild days that were within a few degrees of records already set in 1982 and in some cases about to be broken again in 1998. There were two record low maxima in January: 10F on 19th and 15F on 20th. 15F on the 16th had missed by one degree (14F 1920). No further records were set (count 2.00). The same two dates produced record low minima of -2F (Jan 19th) and 0 deg F (Jan 20th). Another 0 F reading on Jan 27th was one degree above the record set in 1927, and 3F on the 16th was two higher than the record (1F 1893 later tied in 2004). Another record low occurred on Aug 7th (57F). (count 3.00) This was one of two years after 1988 that exceeded the random expectation barely, the other being 2019. There were no record high minima; 75F on June 19th had been edged out the previous year by 76F. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _96F ___ June 15 __ eventual record tied by 1891 and 1988 .. (1956,87 t-4th (94F), 1945,52,57 t-6th (93F), 1899, 1983,1991 t-9th (92F)). _98F ___ June 19 __ eventual record .. (1993 2nd (95F), 1929 3rd (94F), 1962.1995 4th (93F), 1873,1943.57 t6th (92F)) ______________________________________________________________________________ 1995 __ This year had a mild January and a hot summer; some other months were slightly below average, and the record production was once again rather sparse, at 2 (count 2.00). That made 1995 the third year to achieve a 100% survival rate for its records (by 2021). These two records had an average increase of 2.5 F deg over previous values. If they both fall in the next eight months, the average extinction date would be Oct 15, 2021. That is technically later than 1994 but not 1981 (which has spring record dates that can only next be broken in 2022). The January record came on a somewhat cooler day than the three previous (61F, 64F, 59F) but none of them exceeded previous record highs all set in 1932 (68F, 70F, 67F). There were no record low maxima in 1995. There was a one-quarter share of the June 28th record low minimum of 54F. (count 0.25) This is the second lowest count for any year (behind 2003 with 0.17), other than the 33 years which had no final shares in the record table. The closest reading to a record low otherwise was 23F on April 5th (record 20F 1874). Record high minima included two from January, 54F (Jan 15th), 53F (Jan 16th), and this record breaker: 84F (July 15th, tied as July max with 7th, 1908, and 22nd, 2011, and also as annual maximum value with July 7th, 1908, July 22nd, 2011, and Aug 14th, 1908, then also 78F (July 27th) and 79F (July 29th, tied 2002), with 77F on Aug 17th one degree below 1978 later tied by 2015. (count 4.50) Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _ 58F ___ Jan 16 ___ eventual record .. (1924,53 t-2nd (57F), 1943 4th (56F), 1890,1933,90,91,2007 t-5th (55F), 1949 10th (54F)). _102F __ July 15 ___ eventual record .. (1983 2nd (98F), 1997 3rd (97F), 1977 4th (96F), 1879 5th (95F), 1952,2013 t-6th (94F)) __________________________________________________________________________________ 1996 __ The most noteworthy weather event of the year was the heavy snowfall on Jan 7th-8th which totalled 20.2" at NYC. Some parts of the year were quite cool and warmth confined to the spring months mainly; four records were set or tied, for a count of 3.50. Two have survived, a survival rate of 57.1%. This is lower than any following year would have except for the two (2004,2014) that set no records. These four records improved on previous marks by an average of 2.5 F deg. Two records fell in 2007 and 2015 (average Aug 2011) and if the other two fall in a few days' time (which seems unlikely from current guidance) then the average will then be July 2016. That would become Jan 2017 if they fall in 2022. Two broken records have been improved by an average of 5.0 F deg, which reduces to 2.5 F counting the surviving records. There was one low maximum record set, 24F on Mar 9th, and a share in a five-way tie (70F) on July 23rd for a count of 1.20. There was a record low minimum also on Mar 9th (11F). (count 1.00) The closest value to a record otherwise was within three degrees: 43F on May 14th (record 40 F 1878) matched by 40F Oct 4th (record 37F 1888). Three record high minima included 46F (Feb 22nd), 74F (May 20th) and 44F (Dec 18th). (count 3.00) Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _85F ___ Apr 23 ___ 1886,1925 (83F) ___ 2007 (86F) _ 2007 (86F) __ (1996 2nd (85F), 1886,1925 t-3rd (84F), 1902, 1973 t-5th (83F), 1979,90 t-7th (81F)). _96F ___ May 20 ___ eventual record .. (1959 2nd (91F), 1939,62,78 t3rd (90F), 1903 6th (89F), 1975 7th (88F) 1877,87,1914,33,41 t-8th (87F)). _93F ___ May 21 ___ eventual record .. (1934 2nd (90F), 1912,59,92 t-3rd (89F), 1975 6th (88F), 1887,1962 t-7th (87F), 1875,1921,2009,13 t-9th (86F)). _63F ___ Dec 24 ____________ 1990 (63F) _ 2015 (72F) __ 2015 (72F) __ (1990,96 t-2nd (63F), 1941 4th (61F), 1891 5th (60F)). _____________________________________________________________________ 1997 __ The winter had mild spells, especially in late February and four records were set, three of which survived (75% survival rate). These broke existing records by an average of 2.5 F deg. The one record broken fell in 2000, if the other three are broken in 2022 then that average will be 2016. The record was surpassed by 2 F deg, which makes the average 0.5 F deg counting the survivors. After the winter records, the closest temperature to a record value in the rest of 1997 was not the annual maximum of 97F (July 15th, 1995 102F) or 96F two days later (100F 1953) within 4 F. Aug 17th came within two degrees (93F vs 95F 1944 tied later 2015). The previous day had been within 3 (93F vs 96F 1944). 85F on Oct 6th was five short of the 1941 record. There were no record low maxima in 1997. The closest to a record was July 24th with 68F (record 67F 1904). Aug 20th was within two (70F vs 68F in 1990). Apr 10th had a one-third share of the low minimum record (28F). (count 0.33) ... July 24th and 25th were both within two degrees of record low minima (58F, 59F). There were no surviving record high minima in 1997 but 49F on Feb 20th tied the existing record from 1981, later broken by 53F in 2017. A similar outcome repeated on June 12th (tied record of 72F falling to 76F again in 2017). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _62F __ Jan 3 ____ 1950 (60F) __________ 2000 (64F) __ 2000 (64F) ___ (1950 3rd (60F), 1913,51 t-4th (59F), 1876, 2004,05 t-6th (58F)). _66F ___ Feb 19 ___ eventual record .. (2017 2nd (65F), 1961 3rd (63F), 1994 4th (61F), 1948,49,54.81 t5th (59F)). _69F ___ Feb 22 ___ eventual record .. (1874,1991 t-2nd (66F), 1990 4th (63F), 1925,74,85 t-5th (62F), 1943 8th (61F)). _72F ___ Feb 27 ___ eventual record .. (1880 2nd (68F), 1976 3rd (67F), 1971 4th (66F), 1951,2009 t-5th (61F), 1957 6th (60F)). _______________________________________________________________________________ 1998 __ This was probably the warmest year of the "modern warming" era in terms of average, but it ranks 8th for the number of surviving records (seven), with nine records set (count 7.83 since the two that have since been broken were both ties of earlier values). That is a survival rate of 89.4%. The main intervals of warmth were early January, late March, and early December. A reading of 86F on March 31st tied the earlier value from March 29th, 1945. A high of 75F on Dec 7th is the highest temperature for December. Nine records set in 1998 increased previous values by an average of 3.9 F deg. The two records since broken fell in 2001 and 2013 for an average of Dec 2007. If the other seven fell in the coming year, that would change to 2019. There were no record low maxima or minima in 1998. July 8th (69F) was within two of the existing low maximum record but this changed to three when 2005 recorded 66F. That now equals the deficit of Aug 19th (73F vs 70F). The closest value to a record low minimum was 58F on Aug 20th (record 55F in 1949). The March warm spell had four consecutive high minimum records for March 28th-31st, 63F, 62F, 59F and 66F; the last one is a monthly maximum. Aug 26th (76F) added a tie (1961), and Dec 3rd-4th added two more records (53F and 59F). That was a total of seven records and a count of 6.50. The Dec 4th record was highest minimum for December at the time but was later broken in both 2013 and 2015 by readings of 61F (22nd 2013) and 63F (24th 2015). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _65F ___ Jan 8 ___ eventual record .. (1930, 2008 t-2nd (64F), 1907,49 t-4th (60F), 2007 6th (56F), 1937,46 t-7th (54F)). _83F ___ Mar 27 __ eventual record .. (2007 2nd (78F), 1949 3rd (75F), 1945, 1985 t-4th (74F), 1914,39 t-6th (73F)). _82F ___ Mar 30 __ eventual record .. (1963,77 t-2nd (79F), 1910,86 t-4th (78F), 1979 6th (76F), 1945 7th (74F)). _86F ___ Mar 31 __ eventual record .. (1979,86 t-2nd (75F), 1999 4th (74F), 2016 6th (73F), 1981 5th (72F), 1920 6th (71F)). [Mar monthly max t1945] _69F ___ Dec 3 ___ eventual record .. (2009 2nd (66F), 1914,70 t-3rd (64F), 1994 5th (63F), 1932,93 t-6th (62F)) _74F ___ Dec 4 ___ eventual record .. (1982 2nd (72F), 1978 3rd (67F), 1873,1973 t-4th (66F), 1994 6th (65F), 2001 7th (64F), 1941,2012 t-8th (62F)). _63F ___ Dec 5 ___________ 1916,82 (63F) _ 2001 (70F) __ 2001 (70F) _ (1916,82,98,99 t-2nd (63F), 1960,94 t6rh (62F), 1973,2017 t-8th (61F)). _75F ___ Dec 7 ___ eventual record .. (1956 2nd (67F), 1951 3rd (64F), 1932 4th (63F), 2011 5th (62F)). [Dec monthly max] _63F ___ Dec 22 _________ 1949 (59F) _2013 (71F) __ 2013 (71F) __ (1946,1998 t2nd (63F), 1967, 2015 t-4th (62F), 1990 6th (61F)). ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1999 __ The main weather event of 1999 was its hot summer which set several records. The year set eight records, two were four-way ties when 1999 joined, two were ordinary ties then, and of the six surviving records, one was a four-way tie, two were later tied (in 2010 and 2018), another was already a tie with 1895 and was later joined by 2002. That reduced the count of these six survivors to 3.58 (it was 4.75 in its contribution to the 1999 count). That makes the current survival rate 59.7%. Only 2004 and 2014 with no records to survive have a lower percentage after 1999. The eight 1999 records broke existing values by an average of 2.25 F deg and the two broken were surpassed in Dec 2001 and July 2010 for an average of March 2006; this becomes 2017 if the six surviving records fall between now and next February. The two broken already have been surpassed by an average of 4.5 F deg, which reduces to 1.1 F deg for all eight counting the survivors. In addition to its records, June 7th (94F) and June 8th (93F) were each two degrees short of tying 1925 and 1933 records. July 16th to 19th had highs in the 97-98F range but none were records, also between two records in late July were two more mid-90F days, and August 1st at 98F missed by two degrees. The average maximum for the period June 26th to August 7th was 89.9 deg F. 72F on Nov 10th was one degree short of the 1985 record (now two lower than 2020). There were no surviving record low maxima although 64F on Aug 21st was the lowest for that date until 59F in 2007 and would be a record for Aug 19th-20th or 22nd. There is one surviving record low minimum for 1999, 39F on Oct 7th (tied 1954, count 0.50). There were four end-of-data record high minima, including 46F Feb 3rd (tied 2006), 43F Feb 10th, 82F July 5th, 83F July 6th, for a count of 3.50. 79F on July 4th was a record but fell to 81F in 2002. Another 79F on July 24th fell in 2012 (80F). 79F on July 18th had been outdone in 1900 (81F) and 79F on Aug 1st had already been beaten by 82F in 1917. The average minimum for the same interval mentioned above (June 26th to Aug 7th) was 72.4 making the mean temperature for that six-week interval 81.2F. The July mean of 81.4F is the highest monthly mean for NYC. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _62F ___ Feb 12 __ eventual record later tied by 2018 .. (1966 3rd (58F), 1984,2009 t-4th (57F), 1932 6th (56F), 1877,80,1940.98 t-7th (54F)). _101F __ July 5 __ eventual record .. (2010 2nd (99F), 1919,55 t-3rd (98F), 1911 5th (97F), 1949,90,2012 t-6th (95F)) _101F ___ July 6 __ 1911,86 (98F) _______ 2010 (103F) _ 2010 (103F) __ (1999 2nd (101F), 1911,86 t-3rd (98F), 2020 5th (96F), 1908 6th (95F)). _ 97F ___ July 24 ___ eventual record later tied by 2010 .. (1910,33,87,2016 t-3rd (94F), 1929,44 t-7th (93F)). _ 99F ___ July 25 ___ eventual record .. (1987 2nd (95F), 1873,85,1944,2001 t3rd (94F), 1870,92,1930,39,2010,16 t7th (93F)). _ 98F ___ July 28 __ eventual record tied by 1892, 1931, 1949 .. (5th warmest 1983 (96F), t6th 1929, 1963, 2015,16 (95F)) _63F ___ Dec 5 _______ 1916,82,98 (63F) _ 2001 (70F) _ 2001 (70F) _ (1916,82,98,99 t-2nd (63F), 1960,94 t6rh (62F), 1973,2017 t-8th (61F)). _60F ___ Dec 20 ___ eventual record tied by 1895 and later by 2002 .. (1877, 1957 t-4th (59F), 1988 6th (56F), 1936 7th (55F)). ______________________________________________________ 2000 __ The year 2000 had a mild winter to start, occasional warmth in the spring, a rather cool summer and autumn, with one further mild spell in December producing a total of five records (count 4.50) of which four (count 3.50) have survived (survival rate 77.8%). These five records broke existing values by an average of 2.2 F deg. The one which has been surpassed was beaten in 2016 by 6 F and that would reduce to 1.2 F counting the four surviving records. The average date (Mar 9th, 2016) changes to about Nov 2020 if the four surviving records are broken in the next year. There were five surviving low maximum records, three of them ties, 51F (May 20th) tied 1957, 69F (July 19th), 69F (July 26th) tied 1901 and 68F (July 27th) tied 1897 and 54F (Sep 26th). The count was 3.50. There were no record low minima, but numerous close calls, with five readings within 1 deg of a record value -- 37F April 27th (36F in 1932); 52F Sept 5th (51F 1963); 43F Sept 29th (three tied at 42F); 38F and 36F Oct 9th-10th (records 37F 1888 t1988 and 35F 1888), and these played a role (with some ties) in the count of 6.33 for eight occasions with lowest minimum since a previous record. There were four record high minima 51F (Jan 3rd), 48F (Mar 9th), 70F (May 8th) 74F (May 9th), count 4.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _64F __ Jan 3 ___ eventual record .. 1950 3rd (60F), 1913,51 t-4th (59F), 1876, 2004,05 t-6th (58F). _71F __ Mar 9 ___ 1921,77 (66F) ______ 2016 (77F) _ 2016 (77F) _ (2020 2nd (72F), 2000 3rd (71F), 1921,77 t-4th (66F), 1913,73,2002 t-6th (65F)). _93F ___ May 7 ___ eventual record .. (1939 2nd (92F), 1930 3rd (91F), 1943 4th (88F), 1876 5th (87F)). _91F ___ May 8 ___ eventual record tied by 1936 .. (1943 3rd (89F), 1964 4th (87F), 1872,1930,1963 t5th (85F)). _62F ___ Dec 17 ___ eventual record .. (1984 2nd (61F), 1928 3rd (60F), 2015 4th (59F), 1992,96 t-5th (58F).). _______________________________________________________ decade of 2001 to 2010 ____________________________________________ Although 2001 was the most productive year for total surviving records (9.33) and total records vs random expectation (468%) the rest of this decade settled into a more pedestrian pace and the total count for the ten years was 37.83 records (about 28 could have been expected at random) with 31.33 of them surviving (or only 6.5 fell to later years, actually three fell within the decade and three others in the next decade with one also being tied then). These 44 records (including ties) were set on 42 different dates, with 11 of them being ties of previous records (four became three-way ties) for a decade count of 35.83 (duplications where one year breaks another year's record within the decade account for the 2.00 surplus in the total count). 2004 became the third year not to set any new records. The decade was even less productive than the 1991-2000 decade in setting only a total of 1.67 daily minimum records, with six years setting no new low minimum values. 2001 __ This year had warm weather quite frequently and set 14 new records, of which 11 survived. During 2001, one record was a three-way tie (with 1962,73) and one other was an ordinary tie (with 1990), for a count of 12.83, highest since 1949. One of the surviving records added a tie in 2018 so that the 11 survivors now have a count of 9.33 (they counted 9.83 for 2001). The record count was 468% of random expectation (2.74) which is highest of the data set. So was the surviving count of 9.33 for a survival rate of 72.7%. These 14 record highs increased previous values by an average of 2.3 F deg. The three eventually broken fell in 2006, 2008 and 2018 for an average of 2011, but if the other eleven were surpassed in the next year, that would become mid-2019. The three that have fallen were surpassed by an average of 2.7 F deg, counting the survivors that falls off to 0.6 F deg. 99F on Aug 7th did not add a record to the list because it went up against monthly maximum 104F from 1918. There were no record low maxima in 2001. The closest call was 37F on March 26th (three tied at 35F). 55F on Sept 30th was three higher than the 1888 record. There was one tied record low minimum value of 56F on July 2nd (tied 1888). (count 0.50) ... A high minimum of 82F tied 1896 (Aug 9th), and was joined by three more records set in December, 52F on Dec 1st, 58F on Dec 6th and 53F on 14th (tied 1901, later tied by 2015) for a total count of 2.83. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _61F ___ Feb 10 __ eventual record tied by 1990 .. (1949 2nd (60F), 1898, 2001 t-3rd (58F), 1955 5th (57F), 1909 6th (56F), 2002 7th (55F)). _86F ___ Apr 22 __ eventual record tied by 1962, 1973 .. (1977,85 t-4th (85F), 1902 6th (84F), 1926,2004 t-7th (82F)). _87F ___ Apr 24 __ eventual record .. (1886 2nd (83F), 1881,1957,1992 t-3rd (81F), 1942,1994,2001 t-6th (80F)). _87F ___ May 1 ___ eventual record .. (2010 2nd (85F), 1899,1985 t-3rd (84F), 1944,90 t-5th (83F), 1894,1957,1993 t-7 (82F)). _90F ___ May 2 ___ eventual record later tied by 2018 .. (1913 2nd (89F), 2010 3rd (88F), 1899,1930,1992 t-4th (86F), 1894 7th (85F), 1884 8th (84F)). _90F ___ May 3 ___ 1913 (89F) _________ 2018 (92F) _ 2018 (92F) __ (2001 2nd (90F), 1913 3rd (89F), 1878,1969 t-4th (84F), 1880,1942 t-6th (82F)). _92F ___ May 4 ___ eventual record .. (1965 2nd (90F), 1963 3rd (86F), 1944, 2015 t-4th (85F), 2018 6th (84F), 1942,49 t-5th (83F)) _ 99F ___ Aug 8 ___ eventual record .. (1980 2nd (96F), 1896,1941,1983 t3rd (95F), 1916,18,79 t6 (94F)) _103F __ Aug 9 ___ eventual record .. (1949 2nd (100F), 1896 3rd (98F), 1941 4th (97F), 1924 5th (96F), 1980 6th (95F)). _79F __ Oct 24 ___ eventual record .. (1900,46,63 t-2nd (77F), 1973 5th (76F), 1940,72, 2017 t6th (74F)). _69F ___ Dec 1 ____ 1927,62 (68F) _______ 2006 (70F) _ 2006 (70F) __ (2001 2nd (69F), 1927,62 t-3rd (68F), 1991 5th (66F), 2014 6th (65F), 1908,34 t-7th (64F)). _70F ___ Dec 5 ___ eventual record .. (1916,82,98,99 t-2nd (63F), 1960,94 t6rh (62F), 1973,2017 t-8th (61F), 1941,51,2013 t-10 (60F)). _71F ___ Dec 6 ___ eventual record .. (1982 2nd (68F), 1998 3rd (66F), 1912,60 t-4th (64F), 1951,53,94 t-6th (63F)) _63F ___ Dec 15 __ 1918 (61F) __________ 2008 (67F) _ 2015 (68F) _ (2008 2nd (67F), 2001 3rd (63F), 1918 4th (61F), 1901,75 t-5th (60F), 2011 7th (59F)). __________________________________________________________________ 2002 __ April 2002 duplicated the remarkable heat of mid-April 1976 and the two years have had to share some records or lose to the other when there were no other years even close at that time. August had a fairly warm spell but otherwise the year was rather average most of the time and the total number of records was seven for a count of 5.00 as three were three-way ties with earlier years. Of these seven, six have survived and their count is 4.00 for a survival rate of 80.0%. The seven records averaged 3.7 F deg higher than previous marks (Jan 29th was 14 degrees higher than its previous record value). Only one 2002 record has since fallen, that being Aug 13th which was edged out by one degree (99F) by 2005. If the other six records were broken in the next year, that would become an average of (late) 2019. In August, before and after one of three records were set, two other days (12th, 14th) at 96F and 95F failed to break those daily records from earlier years (97F, 99F). The middle of these three days lost its 98F record to 99F in 2005. Meanwhile, 2002 set no daily low maximum records. May 18th (55F) was within two degrees of the 1881 record, and 71F on July 26th was also two higher than the date record (69F tied 1901, 2000) also 65F on Aug 29th within two of the record (63F 1903). There was one record low minimum, a tied 43F on May 20th with 1907. 41F the previous night and 43F before that had been edged out already by 1973 (41F 18th) and 1976 (38F 19th). Then May 21st at 42F was beaten by 1907 at 40F. It is quite unusual for four consecutive nights to be this close to record values in recent times. The count was 0.50. 2002 had eleven record high minima, including two ties for a count of 10.00 ... these include 46F Jan 28th (tied by 2018) and 50F Jan 29th, 44F Feb 16th, 69F Apr 16th, 74F Apr 17th and 76F Apr 18th (an April monthly record), 82F July 3rd, 81F July 4th, 79F July 29th (tied 1895) and 80F July 30th, and 78F Aug 28th. (Also 80F Aug 13th, 78F Aug 14th lost out to warmer values from 1908 and 60F on Nov 11th was broken by 64F in 2020). It should be noted that 2002 had an annual minimum of only 19F, the highest in the 153 years. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _69F ___ Jan 29 ___ eventual record .. (1975 2nd (55F), 1887,1950,2006 t3rd (53F), 1876,1924,1989 t-6th (52F)). _92F ___ Apr 16 ___ eventual record .. (2003,12 t-2nd (88F), 1896, 2017 t-4th (87F), 1976 6th (82F), 1941 7th (80F) 1912,59 t-8th (77F)). _96F ___ Apr 17 ___ eventual record .. (1976 2nd (91F), 1896 3rd (88F), 1959 4th (80F), 2004 5th (78F), 2005 6th (77F)), [Apr monthly max tied by 1976] _98F ___ Aug 13 ___ 1881,1944,1988 (95F) ___2005 (99F) __ 2005 (99F) __ (1881,1944,1988,2016 t-3rd (96F), 1947 7th (95F)). _94F ___ Aug 18 ___ eventual record tied by 1913 and 1987 .. (1956,1995 t-4th (92F), 1872,1922,1937,1966 t-6th (91F)). _94F ___ Aug 19 ___ eventual record tied by 1914 and 1966 .. (1872, 1978 t-4th (92F), 1947, 2010 t-6th (91F)). _60F ___ Dec 20 ___ eventual record tied by 1895 and 1999 .. (1877, 1957 t-4th (59F), 1988 6th (56F), 1936 7th (55F)) _____________________________________________________________ 2003 __ Although the summer of 2003 turned very hot in Europe, little of that was seen in eastern North America, in fact the entire year was rather cold at times, with just one record set at NYC, on November 3rd. This was 1 F deg higher than the previous mark set in 1990, so by quite a large margin 2003 has the shallowest roots in the record soil so to speak, other than the four years with no records at all. This record has survived so 2003 becomes the fourth year in the study to have a 100% survival rate after 1981, 1994, and 1995. If this record falls in 2021, the year will become the fifth year with no surviving records. Besides Nov 3rd, the closest temperature in 2003 to record values was 93F on June 24th (96F 1888), followed by 88F on Apr 16th (just established as a record of 92F in 2002, otherwise this would have broken the previous record which was 87F from 1896). 37F on Apr 8th and 39F on Apr 9th both became three-way ties for record low maxima and 63F on June 21st tied 1958 (count 1.17). There were almost no record low minima in 2003, with the final part of the six-way tie for March 3rd (11F), for a count of 0.17, the lowest of any year (there were 33 of them) not entirely shut out of any share in eventual records. The closest value to add to that meagre outcome was 50F on both June 2nd and 4th (records 48F both dates) and also 53F June 17th (record 51F 1926). No record high minimum was set either, with a minimum of 60F on Nov 3rd being four short of the 1936 record. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _79F ___ Nov 3 ___ eventual record .. (1990 2nd (78F), 1936 3rd (75F), 1974,1982,2017 t4 (74F), 1953 6th (73F)). __________________________________________________________________________________ 2004 __ This becomes the third year that failed to set any new record highs. The closest calls were 86F on May 13th and 87F on May 15th which were both 3 F below the existing records of 89F (1956) and 90F (1900). 67F on Mar 2nd was five degrees below the 1972 record, and 63F on Mar 6th missed the 1935 record by 5 F also. Three of these four would have been starter era records (not May 15th as 1900 is in the starter era), as well as the following: Jan 3rd-4th (both 58F, tied 1876, 1874), 57F (Feb 28th), 63F Mar 1st, 63F Mar 6th, 58F Mar 15th, 70F Mar 27th, 67F Apr 7th, 85F Apr 19th, 82F Apr 22nd, 84F May 22nd (tied 1886), 87F May 23rd, 91F June 9th (tied 1889), 90F Aug 28th (tied 1886), 84F Sep 13th, 65F Nov 25th, and 59F Dec 8th, for a total count of 17.50; that would have ranked 2004 fourth in the starter era behind 1895 and 1896, and 1900, just ahead of 1879. If 2004 had been a starter year, its extinction date would have been Nov 25th, 1979 (2004 would have tied 1973). (If non-record producer 2014 had also been a starter year, 2004 would not have held the Nov 25th record and would have been extinct on Mar 2nd, 1972.) There were also one tied record low maximum temperature in 2004, 17F on Jan 14th (tied 1893, 1988). The count was 0.33. A reading of 1 F on Jan 16th tied 1893 for the low minimum and no other records occurred so the count is 0.50. There were also no high minimum records, so that 2004 overall is the least record-productive year. 47F on Mar 3rd was within one of the 1991 record but is now two short of the 2020 mark (49F). ______________________________________________________________________________ 2005 __ Record highs resumed after quite a long delay between Nov 2003 and Aug 2005, in fact going back to the end of 2002, an interval of 31 months only had the one record high (Nov 3, 2003). A hot spell in August 2005 set two records, which have both survived, for a count of 2.00 and a survival rate of 100%. These two broke previous values by an average of 2.0F. Aug 12th at 96F was only one degree lower than the 1944 record. 92F on Sep 13th was two degrees below the 1952 record. 68F on Nov 16th fell four short of the 1928 record. There was also one record low maximum in 2005, 66F on July 8th. There were no record low minima, and the closest call was 22F on Nov 25th (within three of the 1938 record 19F). The year managed seven high minimum records, 46F on Feb 9th, 78F on June 14th, and 78F on Aug 4th (tied 1908), 75F Sep 15th (tied 1931), 73F Sep 16th (tied 1903), 70F Oct 7th, and 58F Nov 29th, for a count of 5.50. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _97F ___ Aug 3 ____ eventual record .. 1926,36,75,2006 t2nd (96F)), 1957 6th (95F), 1930,93 t7th (94F)). _99F ___ Aug 13 ___ eventual record .. (1881,1944,1988,2016 t-3rd (96F), 1947 7th (95F), 1908,70 t-8th (94F)). _________________________________________________________________ 2006 __ While January was quite mild, most of this year came in rather close to average and the record count was 4.5, of which 3.5 have survived, a rate of 72.7%. The average by which 2006 records increased from previous values was 1.6 F deg. The one that has fallen was broken Mar 10th, 2016. If the other four were broken this coming winter, that would change to around Nov 2020. The record was broken by 5 deg, the average including surviving records is therefore 1.0 F deg. Summer heat was brief with 97F on Aug 2nd not quite able to set a record, 96F on 3rd was one degree short of the previous year's new record. There were no record low maxima in 2006. The closest call was four degrees (66F on Sept 2nd vs 62F the 1869 record). The year also set no record low minima. The closest was 45F on May 23rd (within 2 of the record 43F 1963). There were five record high minima including Feb 3rd (46F, tied 1999), Aug 2nd (83F), Aug 3rd (78F tied 1975), Nov 16th (59F) and Nov 30th (58F). (count 4.00). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _61F ___ Jan 20 ___ eventual record tied by 1951 .. (1947 3rd (60F), 1913, 1933 t4th (56F), 1890 6th (55F)) _63F ___ Jan 21 ___ eventual record .. (1913 2nd (60F), 1906 3rd (59F), 1916 4th (57F), 1921 5th (55F), 1951,54,59,74,79 t-6 (54F)). _64F ___ Jan 30 ___ eventual record .. (1947 2nd (63F), 2002 3rd (61F), 1932 4th (60F), 2013 5th (59F), 1914 6th (58F)). _74F __ Mar 10 ___ 1955 (71F) _________ 2016 (79F) __2016 (79F) __ (2006 2nd (74F), 1955 3rd (71F), 1879,1977 t-4th (69F), 1878 6th (68F)). _70F ___Dec 1 ___ eventual record .. (2001 2nd (69F), 1927,62 t-3rd (68F), 1991 5th (66F), 2014 6th (65F), 1908,34 t-7th (64F)) ______________________________________________________________ 2007 __ A brief burst of warmth in early January saw the 1950 monthly record of 72F tied (Jan 6th). Otherwise warm spells during the year were quite brief, three records were set in total and all have survived (counts 3.00, survival rate 100%). These three broke records by 9, 1 and 1 deg for an average of 3.7 F deg. The summer was generally cool, with two record low maxima on Aug 21st (59F) also a benchmark and tied with 31st 1911 for August low maximum, and then 65 F on Aug 22nd. Mar 6th-7th had quite cold daytime highs of 21F and 23F, records for those dates were 17F and 20F. There were no record low minima, 13F on Mar 9th was two higher than the 1996 record, and 57F on July 2nd missed by one degree. 2007 managed seven occasions with the coldest reading after a record, with ties the count was 5.5. There were just two record high minima on Jan 5th (53F) and Jan 6th (54F). The cold August days had very limited diurnal ranges and missed those minimum records (56F being the lows both days, records 53F and 52F). 1.27" of rain fell on the 21st followed by a two-week dry spell. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _72F ___ Jan 6 ___ eventual record .. (1950 2nd (63F), 1946 3rd (62F), 1929 4th (61F), 1998 5th (59F)) [monthly max tied 1950 25th] _86F ___Apr 23 __ eventual record .. (1996 2nd (85F), 1886,1925 t-3rd (84F), 1902, 1973 t-5th (83F), 1979,90 t-7th (81F), 2001 9th (80F)). _87F ___Oct 8 ___ eventual record .. (1931 2nd (86F), 1916 3rd (84F), 1990 4th (81F), 1881,1900,1922,1944,1982 t-5th (80F)). _________________________________________________________________________ 2008 __ Further north this year is recalled for heavy late winter and spring snowfalls, NYC however saw only one six inch snowfall event in late February. The storm track evidently was running just to the north for that interval (which included March-April). The year set five records, two of which tied previous values, for a count of 4.00. Those two tied records plus two others have survived for a count of 3.00 and a survival rate of 75%. The five 2008 records broke previous values by an average of 2.2 F deg. The one record broken fell to Dec 15, 2015. If the other four were broken in the next year, that average would change to about Dec 2020. That record was broken by just one degree so the average counting surviving records is 0.2 F. The 96F record on June 10th was matched the previous day but failed to break the 1933 record of 97F for June 9th. There were no record low maxima or minima in 2008. The closest to a record low maximum was 46F on Oct 29th (three tied at 43F), while the closest to a record low minimum was 59F on Aug 11th (record 56F 1962). There were three record high minima, 53F on Jan 8th, 63F on Apr 24th and 47F on Dec 28th. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _64F ___ Jan 9 ___ eventual record tied by 1937 .. (1998 3rd (63F), 1930 4th (62F), 2006 5th (60F), 1933,78 t6th (58F)). _64F ___ Feb 6 ___ eventual record .. (1938,1991 t2nd (58F), 1896 4th (57F), 1960 5th (56F), 1909,15 t-6th (55F)). _96F ___ June 10 __ eventual record .. (1974,84 t-2nd (95F), 1959,64,2000 t-4th (92F), 1906,67,73 t-7th (91F)). _67F ___ Dec 15 __ 2001 (63F) ____________ 2015 (68F) _ 2015 (68F) _ (2008 2nd (67F), 2001 3rd (63F), 1918 4th (61F), 1901,75 t-5th (60F), 2011 7th (59F)). _65F ___ Dec 28 __ eventual record tied by 1982 .. (1954 3rd (61F), 2018 4th (60F), 1936,49,88 t-5th (59F), 1984 8th (56F)). ___________________________________________________________________________________ 2009 __ This year had a notably cool summer by recent standards. The only significant warmth came in late April, and the total record count was 2.0 for three records, two of which were ties of previous records set in 1960 and 1990. This was a survival rate of 100%. The count of 2.0 was below random expectation (2.59), the fourth year in the decade (joining 2003, 2004 and 2005) to go below that mark. These three records broke previous marks by an average of 2.7 F (one being 8 F, the other two ties). There were three record low maximum, 26F (Mar 3rd tied 1943,50), then 46F (Oct 16th) and 45F (Oct 18th) for a count of 2.33. Readings of 47F on 15th and 48F on 17th were both one degree above previous records, so this was quite a significant cold spell. There were no record low minima, with 12F on March 3rd missing the six-way tie (11F) by one degree. Also, 37F on Oct 15th and 16th were higher than 1876 records of 32F and 34F on those dates but this is probably due to the urban heat island difference. There were three record high minima: 51F (Mar 7th, which came just four days after 12F on Mar 3rd failed by one degree to join the often mentioned six-way tie on that date), 67F on 26th and 69F on 28th (tied 1990) which mirrored the outcome of the record highs shown below. That was a count of 2.50. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _65F ___ Feb 11 ___ eventual record tied by 1960 .. (1887 3rd (63F), 2018 4th (62F), 1966,81 t-5th (57F), 1925,55,2002 t7th (55F)), _92F ___ Apr 26 __ eventual record .. (1942 2nd (84F), 1872, 2011 t-3rd (83F), 1970 5th (82F), 1925,69,85 t6th (80F)). _90F ___ Apr 28 __ eventual record tied by 1990 .. (1938,62 t3rd (89F), 1969 5th (86F), 1983,2017 t6 (85F)) ________________________________________________________________________________________ 2010 __ The winter of 2009-10 produced some heavy snowfalls in the region although it was not particularly cold. Strong blocking in Greenland also produced a very cold January in western Europe. Then again in Dec 2010, wintry conditions returned to NYC at the same time that Britain and Ireland were having a near-record cold month. The spring and summer months were warmer than average at times in NYC. Four records were set, one tying a previous mark from 1999, for counts of 3.50 (records set and surviving) and another 100% survival rate so far. These four records broke previous marks by an average of 1.75 F deg. There were no record low maxima, 20F on Jan 30th was four degrees above the 1934 record. That is when the parade of snowstorms was about to begin. 23F on Dec 14th was within two degrees of the 1902 record but the closest call was 48F on May 12th (within one of 47F 1882). There were also no record low minima for the sixth consecutive year. The closest call was only four degrees from record lows (May 12-13, 44F and 43F) which made 2010 the most widely separated year from the record table so far. The year had five record high minima, Jan 25th (49F), Apr 6th (58F) (although 64F 8th not enough to break 66F 1991), May 1st (64F) (again 66F and 67F next two days fell short by 1 and 3 deg, and later 81F and 80F July 6-7 were slightly below record status (83F 1999 and 84F 1908)). July 24th (80F) was a record though, and 76F on Sep 1st part of a four-way tie (78F next day missing by one to 79F 1898). (count 4.25). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _ 92F ___ Apr 7 ___ eventual record .. (1929 2nd (89F), 1991 3rd (87F), 1942 4th (82F), 2005 5th (78F), 1908 5th (75F)) [earliest 90F+] _103F __ July 6 ___ eventual record .. (1999 2nd (101F), 1911,86 t-3rd (98F), 2020 5th (96F), 1908 6th (95F), 1900,44,94 t-7th (94F)). _100F __ July 7 ___ eventual record .. (1986,1993 t2nd (98F), 1934,1994,2012 4th (97F)). _ 97F ___ July 24 ___ eventual record tied by 1999 .. (1910,33,87,2016 t-3rd (94F), 1929,44 t-7th (93F)). ________________________________________ decade of 2011-20 ____________________________________ Records continue to fall at a somewhat higher pace than random expectation. The decade set a total of 30.33 records while the total for random expectation was 24.75. Of those 30.33 records, 28.83 have survived, since one new mark was broken within the decade and a second tied one was later broken. There were 36 records set, ten being ordinary ties of previous records, and one becoming a three-way tie. These occurred on 34 different dates with the date count 28.83 (which simply indicates that no records set were broken yet in 2021). The decade has only one year that produced more than twice the expected number of records (2015 had 6.5) and one that produced no new ones (2014). The last record set that has since fallen was 66F Jan 12th 2017 (fell to 68F 2020). The only other record set in this decade to fall later was the tied value of 62F (with 1923) on Dec 21st, 2011 that was broken by 65F in 2013. After a ten-year absence of record low minima (Jan 2004 to Jan 2014) the pace picked up slightly in the second half of this decade. 2011 __ This year had a very hot spell in July and produced five records in total, two being ties for a count of 4.0. Of those 3.5 have survived (survival rate of 87.5%). These five broke previous values by an average of 1.0 F deg. The one record broken fell by Dec 2013 which would make the average early 2020 if the other four were broken by next March. As that one fell by three degrees, the average for all five would be 0.6 F. There were no record low maxima set. 45F on Oct 29th during a freakish nor'easter mixed rain-snow event (2.00" precip and 2.9" of that snow on 29th) missed the three-way tie of 43F by two degrees. (the following year Hurricane Sandy would make its run at the coast on the same date). Also there were no record low minima in 2011. Lows of 33F on Oct 29th-30th were both two degrees above the 1925 records. Record high minima included Feb 17th (46F tied 1981), Mar 6th (50F), Mar 18th (51F), Apr 27th (61F tied 1949), July 21st (84F, tied July 15th 1995 and July 7th, Aug 14th 1908 values for record high July and all-time high minimum) and July 22nd (83F, warmest two-consecutive night breaking 82F, 84F in Aug 1908), then also Nov 28th (56F). This was a total of seven with two ties for a count of 6.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _77F ___ Mar 18 __ eventual record tied by 1989 .. 1934 3rd (71F), 1969,99 t4 (70F), 1927,2010 t-6th (69F), 1905,45,66 t-8th (67F). _104F __ July 22 __ eventual record .. (1957 2nd (101F), 1926,55 t-3rd (100F), 1918 5th (98F), 1952,61 t-6th (97F)). _100F __ July 23 __ eventual record .. (1955,91 t-2nd (99F), 2016 4th (96F), 1918,52,78 t5th (95F)) _70F ___ Nov 28 __ eventual record .. (1896,1990 t2nd (69F), 1973 4th (68F), 1979,93,94 t5th (66F), 2001 8th (65F), 1984,2015 t-9th (64F)) _62F ___ Dec 21 _____________ 1923 (62F) _ 2013 (65F) __ 2013 (65F) __ (1923 t 2011 t-2nd (62F), 2018 4th (61F), 1990 5th (59F)). _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 2012 __ The most notable weather event was Hurricane Sandy which hit the coast just south of NYC in late October, with a damaging storm surge the main impact on the region. Rainfall at NYC was only 0.84" (heaviest rainfalls some above 7 inches were south of the west to northwest track of the storm across VA, DE, MD, s NJ, PA). Temperatures were near 60F during the height of the storm (which was at cat-2 intensity off the NJ coast but was declared "Storm Sandy" just before hitting the NJ coast near Asbury Park late on Oct 29th. Earlier in the year, after winter 2011-12 essentially went missing (its mildness more sustained than extreme), March 2012 was very mild and set numerous records in the region. NYC may have seen one or two missed due to sea breeze slight cooling, but even so three were set, albeit two tied. This made the count 2.00 for both records set and surviving (100%). They broke one previous record by one degree for an average of 0.33 F deg. Other than the March warmth, the closest that 2012 came to breaking a daily record was 62F on Jan 7th (record 64F 1907). That margin was the same as March 19th (74F vs 1918 record 76F). 88F on Apr 16th was four below the 2002 record. 94F June 20th and 21st came within 4F and 3F of daily records. 97F on July 7th was three short of the recently set 2010 record. 96F and 100F on July 17th-18th came within 4 and 1 deg of 1953 records. A low maximum of 41F on Nov 7th created a four-way tie for a count of 0.25. There were no record low minima, with the closest call being 58F on June 26th (record 56F tied three times most recently 1979). Five high minimum records were set. Four were in the same March warm spell, 54F on Mar 13th, 55F on Mar 19th, 57F on Mar 21st and 58F on Mar 23rd. The 20th and 22nd fell two and one degrees short of records with similar values of 55F, 56F so overall it was a very warm five day interval. The lowest reading from Mar 12th to 25th was 43F. A fifth record was 79F on June 21st, for a count of 5.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _71F ___ Mar 12 __ eventual record tied by 1890 .. (2021 3rd (68F), 1929 3rd (67F), 1902 4th (66F), 1977 5th (64F) 1884,99 t-6th (63F)). _78F ___ Mar 22 __ eventual record .. (1929,38 t-2nd (77F), 1948 4th (74F), 1979 5th (73F), 1946 6th (70F), 1918 7th (69F)). _76F ___ Mar 23 __ eventual record tied by 1923 .. (1938 3rd (75F), 1907 5th (72F), 1994,2016 t-5th (71F), 1949,90 t-7th (69F)). ___________________________________________________________________________ 2013 __ This year faced a record shutout but rallied with warm records on Dec 21 and 22, in the warm sector of a damaging ice storm further north. These two records broke previous marks by 1 and 8 deg for an average of 4.5 F deg. While Britain had a notably cold spell from about March 10th to Apr 3rd, temperatures at NYC in that interval were generally close to average. The closest that 2013 had come to setting high maximum records before the two successful days were these -- 61F on Jan 31st was 2 short of the 1916,47 tied record of 63F; 82F on Apr 9th was four short of the 1991 record; 92F on June 24th was four lower than the 1888 record; 98F and 97F on July 17th-18th both fell three short of 1953 records; 96F on Sep 11th three short of tied 1931,83 99F; 86F Oct 4th was two lower than 88F in 1941; 62F on Dec 23rd came within 2 of extending the record spell to three days. So while there was no great shortage of near-record warmth in 2013, it came in rather similar to many previous years even back into the starter era. There were two record low maxima: 68F on July 25th. 30F tied 1880 on Nov 24th. (count 1.50) While there were no record low minima, May 14th (42F) was within two of the 1878 record. These readings were record high minima: 55F Apr 10th (tied 1871), 81F July 18th (tied 1900), 83F July 19th, then 81F July 20th was broken by 82F in both 2015 and 2019, and 77F on Sep 11th was one short of the 1983 record; readings of 51F and 61F Dec 21-22 included a new record high for December which only lasted to Dec 24th, 2015 (63F). That was a total of five records (and two near misses) for a count of 4.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _65F ___ Dec 21 ___ eventual record .. (1923, 2011 t-2nd (62F), 2018 4th (61F), 1990 5th (59F), 1957 6th (58F)). _71F ___ Dec 22 ___ eventual record .. (1949,1998 t2nd (63F), 1967, 2015 t-4th (62F), 1990 6th (61F)) _____________________________________________________________________________ 2014 __ 2014 became the fourth and final year of the data set to fail to set any high maximum records. The closest that the year came to matching any previous records were 56F on Feb 2nd (within 3 of 59F 1988), 84F on Sep 28th within 4 of 88F 1881 and 69F on Nov 24th within four of 73F 1979). Then 68F on Nov 25th was within five of another 1979 record 73F. As with 1992 and 2004, I compared these to starter era records and checked the rest of the year. These four would have been starter records except Sep 28th (1881 was in the starter era itself). So in addition to the three mentioned above, 2014 would have claimed these starter era records: 58F Jan 11th, 66F Mar 11th (tied 1879), 58F Mar 15th, 63F Mar 22nd (tied 1894), 62F Mar 28th, 73F Apr 12th, 72F Oct 27th, 72F Oct 28th, 68F Nov 4th, 65F Dec 1st, and 54F Dec 28th. That would have given 2014 a starter era count of 13.00, behind 2004 but ahead of 1992 and a bit higher than the average for 1869-1900. Similar years were 1872, 1886 and 1892. If 2014 had been a starter year its extinction date would have been Nov 25th, 1979 (two records would have fallen 24th-25th and oddly enough if both 2004 and 2014 had been starter years, 2014 would have changed 2004's extinction date to Mar 2nd, 1972 since 1992 went to Nov 25th 1979 with a lower value (65F vs 68F in 2014). There were no low maxima in 2014, 19F Jan 7th was 2 deg above the 1878 record. 17F Jan 22nd was 3 above the 1888 record. A record low of 4F was set on Jan 7th. (count 1.00). This was the first record low minimum since Jan 16th, 2004 tied 1893, an absence of ten years less nine days. The longest absence before this was 2.5 years (Sept 1990 to Mar 1993). Another notable minimum in 2014 was 22F on March 27th (record 20F 1894). 31F on Apr 16th was also two above the record (29F 1928). There were two record high minima in 2014: 76F on June 18th (tied 1957), and 69F on Oct 15th. (count 1.50) _______________________________________________________________________ 2015 __ 2014 and 2015 were considered to be years of the polar vortex, with their winters (2013-14, 2014-15) being either quite cold or extremely cold as with Feb 2015. Later in 2015 however the trend was gradually upwards and the year ended very warm as was also the case in Europe. I suspect that the trigger for the change was the unusual evolution of Pacific hurricane Patricia which crossed Mexico in late October and then the extratropical remnant low headed north towards the Great Lakes. This released a lot of subtropical heat which seemed to linger for about 2-3 months over a large area from eastern North America to Europe. But this warmth was already building gradually through the summer of 2015. The warmth in November and December followed a similar timing to that seen in Britain, and the month of December was similarly about 1.5 C deg above any previous average following a top ten November. The year ended up setting eight records, three of them ties, for a count of 6.50 and a 100% survival rate. These broke previous records by an average of 2.4 F deg. In terms of exceeding random expectation (262%), 2015 was surpassed by only 2001 (468%), 1990 (384%), 1991 (337%), 1988 (281%) and 1998 (279%) since 1949 had hit 318%. Some intervening years had a few more records than 2015 but they had higher random expectations. The number of surviving records is also higher than any years since those mentioned, except for 1953 with 8.00 and 1966 which has 6.83. 2015 has one record low maximum, 58F on June 1st (tied 1945). During the very cold February, the cold was more persistent than extreme, 19F on Feb 20th was within three of the 1885 record of 16F. (count 0.50) Feb 20th set a record low minimum of 2F, well below the previous value of 7F (1950). (count 1.00) .. Another notable low was 50F on June 2nd (2 deg above a record of 48F which has five shares). 2015 set numerous high minimum records: 59F Apr 3rd (tied 1892), 66F May 5th, 70F May 11th, 82F July 20th (tied 2019), 78F Aug 17th (tied 1978), 77F Aug 19th, 20th (tied 1906 twice and also 1983 on 20th), 76F Sep 1st (part of four-way tie), 76F Sep 8th, 72F Sep 29th (tied 1959), 66F Nov 6th (also a benchmark), 57F Nov 19th (tied 1906), 55F Dec 12th and 13th, 53F Dec 14th (tied 1949, 2001), 53F Dec 15th, 50F Dec 17th (tied 1888), 63F Dec 24th (December record high) and 57F Dec 25th. That was a total of 19 records, with ten tied, for a count of 13.42). This broke the record high number of high minima (10.5, 1906). 9 7 2 1 Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _95F ___ Aug 17 __ eventual record tied by 1944 .. (1922,1987,2002 t3rd (94F), 1913,59,97 t-6th (93F), 1937,56, 2009 t-9th (92F)) _97F ___ Sep 8 ___ eventual record .. (1872,1916,1919 t-2nd (93F), 1936,45 t-5th (91F), 2010 7th (90F), 1881,84,2016 t-8 (89F)). _74F ___ Nov 6 ___ eventual record tied by 1948 .. 1959 3rd (73F), 1938,78,94,2020 t4th (70F), 2005 8th (69F). _67F ___ Dec 13 ___ eventual record .. (1923 2nd (64F), 1946,84 t3rd (63F), 2020 5th (62F), 1919 6th (61F)). _67F ___ Dec 14 ___ eventual record tied by 1881 .. (1918,2001 t-3rd (63F), 1991 5th (61F), 1919 6th (60F), 1927 7th (59F)). _68F ___ Dec 15 ___ eventual record .. (2008 2nd (67F), 2001 3rd (63F), 1918 4th (61F), 1901,75 t-5th (60F), 2011 7th (59F)). _72F ___ Dec 24 ___ eventual record .. (1990,96 t-2nd (63F), 1941 4th (61F), 1891 5th (60F), 1900, 2020 t-6th (59F)). _66F ___ Dec 25 ___ eventual record .. (1889, 1982 t-2nd (64F), 1940,2014 t-4th (62F), 1979,2020 t-6th (61F), 1964 8th (60F)). ___________________________________________________________________ 2016 __ The very mild winter from Dec 2015 gradually cooled and there was a record snowstorm of 27.3" on Jan 23rd, 2016. Temperatures only stayed cold briefly after that, reaching 59F on Feb 3rd-4th, but there was a brief cold spell mid-February before it again warmed rapidly in March with two record highs, followed by a rather hot summer without quite reaching record territory, and a third record was set in October. The survival rate was once again 100%. These three records broke previous values by an average of 4.0 F deg. There were no low maximum records set in 2016. Feb 14th (15F) was within three of the 1916 record. One record low minimum was set, -1F on Feb 14th removed 2F (1916) after a century. (count 1.0). May 16th (43F) came within one degree of the 1878 record low. Record high minima included 47F Feb 29th (tied 1896), 63F Mar 10th (early season benchmark), 61F Apr 1st, and 62F Apr 22nd, for a total of four and a count of 3.50. 81F on Aug 13th was one degree short of the 1908 record, and 67F on Oct 18th was two degrees short of the 1928 record. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _76F ___ Mar 9 ____ eventual record .. (2020 2nd (72F), 2000 3rd (71F), 1921,77 t-4th (66F), 1913,73,2002 t-6th (65F)). _79F ___ Mar 10 ___ eventual record .. (2006 2nd (74F), 1955 3rd (71F), 1879,1977 t-4th (69F), 1878 6th (68F), 1967 7th (67F)). _85F ___ Oct 19 ___ eventual record .. (1963 2nd (83F), 1965 3rd (81F), 1945 4th (80F), 1928 5th (79F), 1961 6th (76F)). __________________________________________________________________________________________ 2017 __ This year holds the last record to fall (66F on Jan 12th was edged out by 68F in 2020). This was also the last starter era record (1890, 64F) to be denied survival, leaving the starter era with a count of 34.91 eventual records. As a result, the year has five record highs, a count of 4.33, and four (count 3.33) of those survived for a survival rate of 76.9%. These five records increased by an average of 1.4 F deg over past values. Since one record fell in Jan 2020, and was surpassed by 2 F, the average for all five records is 0.4 F deg. The average extinction date would change from Jan 12th 2020 to about the middle of 2021 if the four surviving records fall within the next year (May 18th looks like it will not this year, from guidance today (May 13th), so I calculated this from 2022 dates for the first two). 65F on Feb 19th was one short of the 1997 record. 65F and 70F (Feb 23rd-24th) were 7 and 5 deg short of earlier records. 70F on Mar 1st was 3 deg short of the 1972 record. 80F on Apr 11th was four short of a 1955 record although 2011 had hit 81F. 85F on Apr 29th was four below the 1974 record. 90F on May 17th also fell to 1974 (92F). 94F on June 13th was two short of the 1961 record. 88F on Sep 25th was two short of the 1970 record. 74F on Nov 3rd fell five short of 2003. 55F missed eliminating the weakest daily record of just 58F on Dec 19th (shared by 1899, 1931) -- this one should go soon because December seems to be warming faster than any other month and most records are well above 60F or into the low 70s now. There was one record low maximum value in 2017, a share in July 14th (73F) for a count of 0.25, although 38F on Nov 11th would have tied on either Nov 10th or 12th (but the record on 11th was 33F from 1987). This November cold spell set two new record low minima, 25F on Nov 10th and 24F on Nov 11th (probably both on the night of 10th-11th). These beat out former record lows of 27F (1914) and 28F (1873, 1926, 1933). (count 2.00) Sept 2nd also came within 3 deg of a record low (54F vs 51F in 1886). There were 15 daily high minimum records set, including ties for a count of 12.17, second highest behind 13.08 in 2015. These were: 47F (Jan 12th), 53F (Feb 19th), 58F (Feb 24th which set a monthly maximum record also), 47F (Feb 28th tied 1903, 1910), 54F (Mar 1st), 61F (Apr 11th), 58F (Apr 12th tied 1947), 64F (Apr 29th), 75F (May 18th), 76F (June 12th), 77F (June 13th), 72F (Oct 8th), 71F (Oct 9th), 67F (Oct 24th), and 45F Dec 19th (tied 1949,57). The late September warm spell had one reading within one of a record (70F on Sep 25th) and lows were in the 67-71 F range for about two weeks ending on the 27th. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max 2017 _66F ___ Jan 12 ___ 1890 (64F) __________ 2020 (68F) _ 2020 (68F) __ (2017 2nd (66F), 1890 3rd (64F), 1913 4th (63F), 2018 5th (61F), 1885, 1980 t-6th (60F)) 2017 _ _62F ___ Feb 8 ___ eventual record .. (1965 2nd (61F), 1933 3rd (60F), 1932,1990,2009 t-4th (58F), 1890,2019 t-7th (55F)). 2017 _92F ___ May 18 __ eventual record .. (1906,36 t-2nd (90F), 1962 4th (89F), 1877,1977 t-5th (88F), 1896 7th (87F), 1903,43,86,89 t-8th (86F)). 2017 _93F ___ June 12 __ eventual record tied by 1933 and 1973 .. (1967 4th (92F), 1914,83 t-5th (91F), 1938,47,49,88 7th (90F), 1872,98,1901,57 t11th (89F)) 2017 _91F ___ Sep 24 ___ eventual record .. (1959 2nd (89F), 1920 3rd (88F), 1961,70 t-4th (87F), 1922 6th (86F), 1870,81,1937,2010 t7 (85F)). __________________________________________________________________________________ 2018 __ This year featured a very mild February and summery warmth in early May, but other parts of the year were often fairly close to average. There were four records set, two being ties for a count of 3.00. The survival rate from 2018 to end of the data (as of May 2021) is now 100%. These four records improved in two cases by 10 and 2 deg (the others tied earlier records) for an average of 3.0 F for the four. The 78F on Feb 21st was a new monthly maximum for February (previously it had been 75F in 1930 and 1985). In addition to records set, 60F (Jan 23rd) was within 3 deg of 1874, 62F on Feb 11th within 3 deg of another tied record (1960, 2009), 67F on Feb 20th within two of a record 69F set 1930 and tied 1939, 88F May 15th within two of the 1900 record (90F), 96F July 1st was four short of the 1901 record with several other years 97 to 99 F, 93F on Sep 6th was within four of the 1881 record (97F), and 61F on Dec 21st was four short of 2013. Although no low maximum records were set, 13F on Jan 6th missed by one degree (12F 1896) and was the coldest January maximum since 1994. There were also no low minimum records, 5F on Jan 7th was edged out by 4F in 2014. There were 12 high minimum records including four ties (count 9.75). 46F (Jan 28th, tied 2002), 55F (Feb 24th), 70F (May 3rd), 72F (May 4th), 72F (May 26th, tied 1880), 79F (July 1st), 79F (Aug 28th), 81F (Aug 29th), 78F (Aug 30th, tied 1973), 77F (Sep 5th, tied with 1898, 1907, 1985), 71F (Oct 10th), 69F (Oct 11th). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _62F ___ Feb 12 __ eventual record tied by 1999 .. (1966 3rd (58F), 1984,2009 t-4th (57F), 1932 6th (56F), 1877,80,1940.98 t-7th (54F)) _78F ___ Feb 21 __ eventual record .. (1930 2nd (68F), 1953 3rd (67F), 2002 4th (63F), 1913, 1997 t-5th (62F), 1943,89 t-7th (60F)). [Feb monthly max] _90F ___ May 2 ___ eventual record tied by 2001 .. (1913 2nd (89F), 2010 3rd (88F), 1899,1930,1992 t-4th (86F), 1894 7th (85F), 1884 8th (84F)) _92F ___ May 3 ___ eventual record .. (2001 2nd (90F), 1913 3rd (89F), 1878,1969 t-4th (84F), 1880,1942 t-6th (82F)) ______________________________________________________________________________ 2019 __ This year had few opportunities to set record highs, with temperatures often close to average. One record was set (Oct 2nd) and it increased the previous value from 1927 by 3 F deg. The closest calls to record highs in the rest of 2019 included these: 58F (Jan 1st) within four of 1966, 65F on Feb 5th within 5 of 1991, 75F (Mar 15th) within 2 deg of 1990, and 90F Aug 18th-19th within 4 of two three-way ties for 94F. There were two record low maximum readings, 16F (Jan 31st, tied 1935) and 48F (May 13th). 34F on Nov 13th missed the 1911 record by one degree. (count 1.50) There was an unusually cold spell in mid-November, setting three record low minima. 29F on Nov 8th tied 1886, then 25F and 23F on Nov 12th-13th (likely both on the same night) were not quite benchmarks (23F had been hit on Nov 5th, 1879 but with a much weaker urban heat island in place then). The two new records were one lower than values from 1926 and 1986. The count of 2.50 exceeds the count for record highs for the first year since 2014 (0,1) with 1994 at (1.33, 3.0). Before that, there were a few years that had more surviving record lows than surviving record highs (1982, 1963, 1943 among them), but not a lower count of record highs set in the year, until 1940 (3.33, 5.5). There were three record high minima in 2019, 49F (Mar 15th tied 1913), 60F (Apr 14th), 82F (July 20th, tied 2015) for a count of 2.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _93F ___ Oct 2 ___ eventual record .. (1927 2nd (90F), 1922 3rd (88F), 1954 4th (86F), 1968,95 t-5th (85F), 2002 7th (84F) 2013 8th (83F)). ____________________________________________________________________________ 2020 __ January, early February, July and November were all quite warm in 2020, in fact November was warmest on record. The heat in July while sustained was never extreme (96F the annual maximum) so the records were set in the other two months with a total of five, and a count of 4.50. In this last full year of the records, the five years replaced were 1938, 1975 (and also tied), 1985 and 2017. The five records increased previous values by an average of 2.2 F deg. In the November warm spell, the 8th (75F) missed by only one degree (1975 was 76F), and the 11th by two (72F, record 74F 1949). 65F on Nov 26th was two below the 1946 record. 62F on Dec 13th and 61F on Dec 25th were both five degrees below 2015 record highs. There were no low maxima in 2020 but May 9th with a trace of snow was quite cold at 48F (record 44F 1977). Two record low minima were set in May, 36F May 8th and 34F May 9th (a rare modern benchmark low). The previous records for those two days were 37F and 35F (both 1947). Seven record high minima were set. Jan 11th had 51F, Mar 3rd 49F, July 28th 80F, Nov 10th 60F, Nov 11th 64F (also a benchmark high so late in the season although next benchmark 63F Dec 24th 2015 probably more anomalous), and 55F Nov 26th (tied 1946). (count 6.50). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _69F ___ Jan 11 __ eventual record .. (1975 2nd (63F), 1933,80 t-3rd (59F), 1983,2014 t-5th (58F), 1924 7th (57F), 1913,2008 t-8th (56F)). _68F ___ Jan 12 __ eventual record .. (2017 2nd (66F), 1890 3rd (64F), 1913 4th (63F), 2018 5th (61F), 1885, 1980 t-6th (60F)). _56F ___ Feb 7 ___ eventual record .. (1938 2nd (54F), 1904,25,33,90 t-3rd (53F), 1965,2005 t-7th (52F), 1884,1953,1955 t-8th (51F)). _75F ___ Nov 9 ___ eventual record tied by 1975 .. (1986 3rd (73F), 1895,1945,1950 t4th (72F), 1916 7th (71F)) _74F ___ Nov 10 __ eventual record .. (1985 2nd (73F), 1931,2009 t-3rd (72F), 1966 5th (70F), 1949 6th (69F), 1895,1948,64 t-7th (68F)) ______________________________________________________________ (decade of 2021-30 will have to wait a while for its overview) 2021 __ So far 2021 has set one record, in which it increased the previous value by 6.0 F. There have been no low maximum or minimum records yet, but two high minima were established already. 52F Mar 12th, 52F Mar 26th (tied 1986). 2021 _82F ___ Mar 26 __ eventual record .. (1922 2nd (76F), 1986 3rd (75F), 1913,43 t-4th (72F). 1925,1976 t-6th (69F), 1946 8th (68F)). =================================================================== =================================================================== I have now finished making a count of the eventual records in all categories, adding high minimum, low maximum and low minimum to the already completed high maximum counts for NYC. I have not gone into as much detail about temporary records that are broken, and only have these final values from the end of the data period. This table will be maintained going forward so if you read it in the future, it will have updates for the rest of 2021, future years as long as I am able to monitor the data, and changes to the past numbers as a result of any new records being set. For now, here's the full count for all four types of records, plus a feature of interest, "extinction date" which for those years that have lost all record highs set (or never set one in four cases), the extinction date reveals when they were eliminated from active participation in the current records. For years that never set a record (1958, 1992, 2004, 2014) the extinction date will be the date when their last relatively high temperature (defined as any reading that would have been a starter record in 1869-1900) became extinct in the data set. So their extinction dates will be before the start of their years. The graph at the bottom of this post shows the extinction dates of all 153 years, in graphical format, and if a year is shown at 2021, then it still has record highs intact and will have a future extinction date (possibly) depending on when those records fall. Some years just made it to that status, 1913 has a one-third share in a rather weak August record high that could easily be gone soon. If that happens this year, then that date would be 1913's extinction date. A reminder, these counts include reductions for ties, 0.50 for ordinary ties, 0.33 for three-way ties etc. There is one six-way tie involved in the low minimum category (11F on March 3rd has been tied six times). I have ensured that my counts are complete as they all add up to 366 (rounded, they actually add to totals like 365.94 because of the plurality of 0.33 to 0.67 or 0.17 type rounding entries for three-way ties). Doing all of the above work assisted in quality control in that a small number of mistakes were found in the record temperature tables that preceded the counts listed above (wrong years or values were identified). Note: random expectation for each year at the end of data is the same, 2.4 records per category. There is a very small statistical difference for leap years which have a slightly higher expectation with that one day of fewer competitors, the differential is something like 2.43 to 2.41. Since they are available, I have added the count of daily precipitation and snowfall records (cols E and F). Snowfall records refer to measurable amounts only. Precipitation is always rainfall from about mid-April to mid-October and is often rainfall with some snow or sleet mixed in during the winter but can on some occasions be all snowfall. U.S. weather records do not list rainfall and snowfall separately as is the practice in Canada so I cannot provide daily rainfall records as such. Only one daily precip record was a tie (1903,1910) so this is why almost all the numbers in column E end in .0, there were two ties with the snowfall data. Count of Records Set (by end of data Sep 4 2021) _________________________________________________________ (for "2021" entries below, the number of retained records can be seen in column A) _________________A __________B __________C _________D ________________________ Daily precip (E), snowfall (F) records _____ YEAR _______ High max __ High min __ Low max _ Low min ____High max extinction date ___ E ____ F ____ 1869 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 6.83 ______ 4.0 ________ 1955 Aug 21 ____________ 2.0 ___ 1.0 1870 __________ 0.0 _______ 2.0 ________ 1.5 _______ 0.0 ________ 1969 Jun 28 _____________ 0.0 ___ 2.0 1871 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.5 ________ 6.83 ______ 6.5 ________ 1986 May 30 ____________ 4.0 ___ 1.0 1872 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 6.33 ______ 6.5 ________ 2015 Sep 8 ______________ 0.0 ___ 1.0 1873 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________12.5 ______ 6.33 _______ 1987 Jul 25 _______________4.0 ___ 2.0 1874 __________ 2.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 6.0 _______10.0 __________ 2021 ___________________2.0 ___ 1.0 1875 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 _______ 13.33 _____ 14.5 ________ 1970 Feb 3 ______________ 0.0 ___3.5 1876 __________ 2.0 _______ 1.5 ________ 5.5 _______ 6.0 ___________ 2021 ___________________3.0 ___1.5 1877 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 2.5 ______ 0.33 _______ 1932 Feb 12 _______________1.0 ___1.0 1878 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 3.5 ______ 3.0 ________ 1946 Mar 7 ________________ 6.0 ___0.0 1879 __________ 2.0 _______ 0.5 ________ 9.0 ______ 8.5 __________ 2021 _____________________ 1.0 ___2.0 1880 __________ 5.0 _______ 3.5 ________ 6.5 ______ 6.7 __________ 2021 _____________________ 1.0 ___2.0 1881 __________ 5.0 _______ 3.5 ________ 7.5 ______6.33 __________ 2021 _____________________3.0 ___1.0 1882 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 5.5 ______ 3.0 _______ 1972 Mar 2 __________________2.0 ___3.0 1883 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.0 ________ 9.0 ______ 4.5 _______ 1991 Feb 4 ___________________1.0 ___2.0 1884 __________ 0.0 _______ 2.83 ______ 8.75 _____ 3.5 _______ 1961 Sep 5 ___________________3.0 ___2.0 1885 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.0 ________6.33 ______6.5 _______ 1987 Jul 25 ___________________2.0 ___0.0 1886 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________7.25 _____ 6.17 _______ 2001 Apr 24 _________________2.0 ___3.0 1887 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.0 ________3.33 _____ 4.5 ________ 1975 Jan 29 __________________4.0 ___3.0 1888 __________ 2.0 _______ 0.0 ________12.5 _____ 6.33 __________ 2021 ______________________2.0 ___2.0 1889 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 4.2 ______ 2.0 ________ 2015 Dec 25 _________________6.0 ___0.0 1890 __________ 1.5 _______ 1.5 ________ 0.0 ______ 6.0 ___________ 2021 ______________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1891 __________ 3.33 ______ 3.5 ________3.83 _____ 4.0 ___________ 2021 ______________________1.0 ___0.0 1892 __________ 1.25 ______ 3.5 ________ 1.25 _____ 1.0 ___________ 2021 ______________________2.0 ___5.0 1893 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 3.5 ______ 3.08 ________ 1943 Aug 25 ________________3.0 ___1.0 1894 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 ________ 7.7 ______ 2.50 ________ 1967 Jan 24 _________________1.0 ___0.0 1895 __________ 6.83 ______ 6.5 ________ 2.5 ______ 4.0 ____________ 2021 _____________________ 0.0 ___0.0 1896 __________ 1.0 _______ 3.5 _________3.0 ______ 3.0 ____________ 2021 _____________________ 3.0 ___5.0 1897 __________ 1.0 _______ 1.0 _________2.5 ______ 2.5 ____________ 2021 _____________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1898 __________ 0.0 _______ 5.5 _________1.5 ______ 0.5 ________ 1972 Aug 24 __________________1.0 ___2.0 1899 __________ 0.5 _______ 0.33 _______ 6.0 ______ 1.83 __________ 2021 ______________________ 2.0 ___1.5 1900 __________ 3.0 _______ 2.5 ________ 3.5 ______ 1.0 ____________2021 _______________________3.0 ___0.0 1901 __________ 1.5 _______ 1.33 _______ 3.0 ______ 0.0 ___________ 2021 _______________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1902 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.33 _______ 3.0 ______ 0.5 _______ 1972 Mar 1 ____________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1903 __________ 0.0 _______ 2.83 _______ 5.25 ____ 2.5 _______ 1976 Feb 28 ____________________ 3.5 ___1.0 1904 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.0 ________ 4.0 ______ 2.0 _______ 1938 Feb 7 _____________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1905 __________ 0.0 _______ 2.5 ________ 0.5 ______ 1.0 _______ 1986 Sep 30 ___________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1906 __________ 0.0 ______ 10.67 _______0.0 ______ 0.0 _______ 2017 May 18 ___________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1907 __________ 1.0 _______ 0.25 _______ 2.0 ______ 3.7 _________ 2021 _________________________ 1.0 ___2.0 1908 __________ 0.0 _______ 8.83 ________0.0 ______ 0.0 ________1966 Jul 12 ___________________ 5.0 ___0.5 1909 __________ 0.0 _______ 4.0 _________2.45 _____ 1.0 ________1930 Feb 19 __________________ 5.0 ___1.0 1910 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.33 ________0.0 ______ 1.0 ________ 1999 Jul 24 ___________________ 2.5 ___1.0 1911 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.5 _________5.0 ______ 1.83 _______ 1999 Jul 6 ____________________ 6.0 ___1.0 1912 __________ 0.33 ______ 0.5 _________1.0 ______ 1.83 ________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___2.0 1913 __________ 0.33 ______ 3.5 _________1.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 8.0 ___0.0 1914 __________ 0.83 ______ 0.0 _________2.67 _____ 8.83 ________2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___1.0 1915 __________ 4.0 _______ 1.0 _________1.5 ______ 1.25 ________ 2021 _________________________ 4.0 ___1.0 1916 __________ 6.0 _______ 2.5 _________3.83 _____ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___2.0 1917 __________ 1.25 ______ 2.0 _________7.0 ______ 6.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___3.0 1918 __________ 2.0 _______ 2.83 ________6.0 ______ 6.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___2.0 1919 __________ 2.0 _______ 0.0 _________3.0 ______ 7.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1920 __________ 2.0 _______ 0.0 _________4.0 ______ 5.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1921 __________ 2.83 ______ 0.0 _________1.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1922 __________ 1.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1923 __________ 2.5 _______ 1.0 _________3.0 ______ 5.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1924 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 _________3.67 _____3.83 ______ 1995 Jan 16 ___________________2.0 ___2.0 1925 __________ 4.0 _______ 2.0 _________4.33 _____5.67 _________ 2021 ________________________3.0 ___2.0 1926 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.0 _________3.0 ______ 6.33 ______ 2005 Aug 3 ____________________2.0 ___1.0 1927 __________ 4.0 _______ 1.0 _________1.25 _____ 2.5 _________ 2021 _________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1928 __________ 4.0 _______ 3.0 _________0.5 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 _________________________ 2.0 ___3.0 1929 __________ 3.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.33 _____3.53 ________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___2.0 1930 __________ 1.5 _______ 2.5 _________1.5 ______ 5.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1931 __________ 7.25 ______ 2.0 _________0.33 _____ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___0.0 1932 __________ 3.0 _______ 2.0 _________0.5 ______ 3.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1933 __________ 5.58 ______ 0.0 _________2.33 _____ 3.5 _________ 2021 ________________________3.0 ___1.0 1934 __________ 1.0 _______ 0.0 _________3.5 ______ 3.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___0.0 1935 __________ 1.0 _______ 1.5 _________3.5 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___0.0 1936 __________ 2.5 _______ 1.0 _________0.0 ______ 5.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___1.0 1937 __________ 1.0 _______ 1.0 _________0.83 _____ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___2.0 1938 __________ 2.0 _______ 3.5 _________2.0 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___2.0 1939 __________ 2.0 _______ 1.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1940 __________ 1.75 ______ 0.0 _________5.0 ______ 5.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 5.0 ___0.0 1941 __________ 6.0 _______ 2.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___1.0 1942 __________ 1.0 _______ 0.0 _________1.0 ______ 1.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1943 __________ 0.5 _______ 3.5 ________ 2.17 _____ 3.17 ________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1944 __________ 6.5 _______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___1.0 1945 __________ 5.0 _______ 1.83 ________5.0 ______ 4.2 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1946 __________ 6.5 _______ 3.5 _________2.0 ______ 0.7 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1947 __________ 2.33 ______ 2.0 _________1.33 _____4.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1948 __________ 4.5 _______ 5.0 _________0.5 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___2.0 1949 __________ 7.58 ______ 3.83 _______ 0.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1950 __________ 4.5 _______ 1.0 _________1.33 _____ 2.17 ________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1951 __________ 3.5 _______ 2.5 _________1.0 ______ 0.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___0.0 1952 __________ 2.5 _______ 4.0 _________0.83 _____ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1953 __________ 8.0 _______ 2.0 _________0.5 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1954 __________ 3.5 _______ 3.0 _________1.0 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1955 __________ 4.83 ______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1956 __________ 3.0 _______ 2.83 ________2.33 _____2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___3.0 1957 __________ 1.0 _______ 2.83 ________1.5 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 _________________________ 0.0 ___2.0 1958 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 _________3.5 ______ 0.0 _______ 1939 Oct 10 ___________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1959 __________ 1.5 _______ 6.0 _________1.33 _____ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1960 __________ 0.5 _______ 0.0 _________1.25 _____ 3.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___3.0 1961 __________ 3.5 _______ 1.0 _________ 1.0 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1962 __________ 1.33 ______ 0.0 _________4.33 _____1.17 ________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1963 __________ 4.0 _______ 0.0 _________3.25 _____ 6.5 _________ 2021 ________________________2.0 ___1.0 1964 __________ 2.5 _______ 1.33 ________2.0 ______ 3.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1965 __________ 1.0 _______ 2.0 _________2.0 ______ 1.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___1.0 1966 __________ 6.83 ______ 4.5 _________0.0 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1967 __________ 3.0 _______ 2.5 _________4.0 ______ 3.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1968 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 3.33 ______ 1990 Nov 29 __________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1969 __________ 2.0 _______ 1.5 _________0.2 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1970 __________ 2.5 _______ 2.5 _________1.5 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1971 __________ 2.0 _______ 3.0 _________1.5 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1972 __________ 3.0 _______ 1.0 _________1.0 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 _________________________ 6.0 ___1.0 1973 __________2.67 ______ 1.0 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___0.0 1974 __________ 3.0 _______ 0.0 _________2.0 ______2.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___0.0 1975 __________ 3.5 _______ 1.5 _________1.0 ______ 0.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___0.0 1976 __________ 4.0 _______ 4.0 _________1.0 ______ 6.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1977 __________ 5.0 _______ 0.5 _________4.0 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___0.0 1978 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.5 _________1.0 ______ 0.0 _______ 1982 Dec 4 ____________________4.0 ___1.0 1979 __________ 5.0 _______ 8.0 _________1.0 ______ 4.83 ________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___1.0 1980 __________ 2.33 ______2.75 ________0.0 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________4.0 ___0.0 1981 __________ 2.0 _______ 2.5 _________0.5 ______ 0.33 ________ 2021 ________________________3.0 ___1.0 1982 __________ 1.0 _______ 3.0 _________3.25 _____ 4.33________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1983 __________ 2.5 _______ 1.33 ________1.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 9.0 ___1.0 1984 __________ 2.5 _______ 6.5 _________2.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 6.0 ___1.0 1985 __________ 3.0 _______ 3.25 ________1.0 ______ 1.33 ________ 2021 ________________________3.0 ___0.0 1986 __________ 1.5 _______ 2.5 _________0.0 ______ 2.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1987 __________ 2.33 ______ 3.0 _________2.83 _____ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___1.0 1988 __________ 7.08 ______ 4.0 _________2.5 ______ 3.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1989 __________ 1.5 _______ 2.0 _________1.0 ______ 0.5 _________ 2021 _________________________ 6.0 ___3.0 1990 __________ 8.0 _______ 6.5 _________2.0 ______ 1.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___1.0 1991 __________ 8.5 _______ 8.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1992 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.5 _________2.2 ______ 0.0 _______ 1964 May 23 __________________ 2.0 ___0.0 1993 __________ 5.0 _______ 3.0 _________0.0 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 1994 __________ 1.33 ______ 0.0 _________2.0 ______ 3.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___1.0 1995 __________ 2.0 _______ 4.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.25 ________ 2021 ________________________ 6.0 ___0.0 1996 __________ 2.0 _______ 3.0 _________1.2 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___3.0 1997 __________ 3.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.33 ________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___0.0 1998 __________ 7.0 _______ 6.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___0.0 1999 __________ 3.58 ______3.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 2000 __________ 3.5 _______ 4.0 _________3.5 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 2001 __________ 9.33 ______2.83 ________0.0 ______ 0.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___0.0 2002 __________ 4.0 _______10.0 ________ 0.0 ______ 0.5 _________ 2021 ________________________3.0 ___0.0 2003 __________ 1.0 _______ 0.0 _________1.17 _____ 0.17 ________ 2021 ________________________5.0 ___5.0 2004 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.5 _______ 1979 Nov 25*__________________2.0 ___0.0 2005 __________ 2.0 _______ 5.5 _________1.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___2.0 2006 __________ 3.5 _______ 4.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___1.0 2007 __________ 3.0 _______ 2.0 _________2.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 5.0 ___0.0 2008 __________ 3.0 _______ 3.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 3.0 ___1.0 2009 __________ 2.0 _______ 2.5 _________2.33 _____ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___1.0 2010 __________ 3.5 _______ 4.25 ________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___3.0 2011 __________ 3.5 _______ 6.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___3.0 2012 __________ 2.0 _______ 5.0 _________0.25 _____ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___2.0 2013 __________ 2.0 _______ 4.0 _________1.5 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 4.0 ___0.0 2014 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.5 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 _______ 1979 Nov 25 __________________ 5.0 ___2.0 2015 __________ 6.5 _______13.42 _______0.5 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___2.0 2016 __________ 3.0 _______ 3.5 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 2017 __________ 3.33 ______12.17 ______ 1.0 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___1.0 2018 __________ 3.0 _______ 9.75 _______ 0.0 ______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 1.0 ___4.0 2019 __________ 1.0 _______ 2.0 ________ _1.5 ______ 2.5 _________ 2021 ________________________ 0.0 ___0.0 2020 __________ 4.5 _______ 6.5 _________0.0 ______ 2.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 2.0 ___0.0 2021 ___________ 1.0 _______ 1.5 _________1.5 _______ 0.0 _________ 2021 ________________________ 6.0 ___6.0 (all to Sept 4 2021) _____________________________________________ * becomes 1972 Mar 2 if 2014 and 2004 both entered as starter years to determine extinction since 2014 had higher Nov 25 temp than 2004. (years with no records, 1958, 1992, 2004, 2014 have their extinction dates calculated from last record to surpass their close readings as determined by treating them as starter years to establish near-records. =================================================================== COUNT TOTALS by DECADES Decade ______ High max _ High min ___ Low max _ Low min ____ Prec __ Snow 1869-70 _______ 0.0 ______ 1.0 _________ 8.33 ______ 4.0 _________ 2.0 ___ 3.0 1871-80 _______11.0 ______ 6.0 _________72.0 _______68.36 _______25.0___16.0 1881-90 _______ 8.5 ______11.33 ________64.5 _______53.42 ______ 26.0___16.0 1891-1900 ____16.91 ____ 26.33 _______ 35.28 ______23.41 _______17.0___15.5 1901-10 _______ 2.5 ______ 33.07 _______ 20.2 _______ 11.7 ________25.0___ 8.5 1911-20 _______18.74 ____ 12.83 _______ 35.0 _______ 41.57 _______36.0___13.0 1921-30 _______22.83 ____ 10.5 ________ 18.58 ______ 34.69 _______18.0___13.0 1931-40 _______27.08 ____ 12.0 ________ 18.0 _______ 23.33 _______ 23.0___ 7.0 1941-50 _______44.41 ____ 22.66 _______ 13.33 _____ 17.07 ________17.0___ 7.0 1951-60 _______28.33 ____ 23.16 _______ 13.24 _____ 11.33 ________10.0___12.0 1961-70 _______26.66 ____ 15.33 _______ 18.28 _____ 23.83 ________14.0___ 8.0 1971-80 _______30.50 ____ 22.25 _______ 12.50 _____ 20.16 ________37.0___ 3.0 1981-90 _______31.41 ____ 34.58 _______ 16.08 _____ 14.82 ________36.0___ 9.0 1991-2000 _____35.91 ____ 33.0 _________ 8.9 _______ 7.08 ________ 27.0___ 7.0 2001-10 _______31.33 ____ 34.08 ________ 6.5 _______ 1.67 ________ 26.0___13.0 2011-20 _______28.33 ____ 63.84 ________ 3.75 ______ 9.5 _________ 24.0___15.0 2021- ___________1.0 _______4.0 __________ 1.5 ________ 0.0 __________ 6.0 ___ 1.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ =========================================================================== May 28-29 2021 took 1.5 low max records from 1884, and 1 daily precip record from 1906. Those changes are reflected in the tables above. Three new record high minima set in summer 2021 (one a tie with 1948, two others replaced records from 1870 and 1883, changes reflected in the tables above). Below is a graph showing the extinction dates of the 153 years, many are at 2021 meaning they still have intact record highs. Note the shift around 1910 from a regime where most years eventually lose their records, to a regime where maintaining records is normal. After 1926, only two years (1968, 1978) failed to keep at least one record set (and four others failed to set one).
  13. The decade of 1941-50 set more surviving record highs than any other decade ending in a zero (44.41), and the years 1944-53 have the highest ten-year count (50.91), ahead of 1993-2002 (40.74), with a third more recent maximum 29 for 2006-15. By 1956-65 the ten-year count had declined to under twenty and it only recovered gradually through the 1970s and 1980s. The decade had a total record count of 99.50 from 117 total records including 23 ordinary ties and 9 three-way ties, and set records on 106 days of the year (a few were cases of more than one year participating), with twenty-nine of those being no more than ties of earlier records (eight untied records, two tied once and one tied three times were broken within the decade), so that the count for the decade was 90.17, about twice what one would expect at random for years 73 to 82 of the data set (that being around 45). The decade produced four shared or outright monthly maxima, October (94F in 1941), March (86F in March 1945 later tied in 1998) and two in 1950 (Jan 72F later tied in 2007, and November 84F). Other notable warm spells were in August of 1944, 1948; October 1947; both March 1945 and 1946 which were very similar and near the top of the March average rankings, June 1943, and frequent spells in both 1941 and 1949. There were some brief cold spells in the decade but it is largely remembered for setting warmth records. At the moment, this post is the collection of saved material from earlier work, and it includes a good portion of the 1940s records as well as later ones. Editing work continues to change this into a finished product similar to what is posted for earlier decades. 1941 _ The year 1941 had a very warm spring and rather warm summer and autumn, after a fairly average sort of winter (1940-41). The warmth continued into December before fading near the end of the month and year. The year produced 15 record highs with three ties for a count of 12.50 (expected 5.0, ratio 2.50). Of these six have survived for a survival rate of 48.0%. The average increase of 1941 records over previous marks was 2.5 F deg. The average year breaking nine records was 1962, but that would change to 1985 if all six surviving records fell within the next year. The average surplus of eventual records to nine broken from 1941 is 4.1 F deg but this falls to 2.5 F deg counting the six surviving records. No surviving record low maxima exist. There are likewise no surviving record low minima. One was set on Aug 14th (55F) and later broken on that date in 1964 (54F) which becomes the extinction date for 1941 record low minima. Three record high minima have survived (count 2.50), 67F on April 15 between two record highs, 69F (tied 1980) on May 23, 76F on June 22, Minima during the very warm spell in October failed to break records set in 1898 (first two) or 1910, although the minimum on the 5th (71F) was equal to the 1910 record for the 6th. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _85F ___ Apr 14 ___ eventual record .. (1945 2nd (83F), 1880 3rd (80F), 1949 4th (79F), 1938, 2018 t5th (77F), 1960 7th (76F)). _87F ___ Apr 15 ___ eventual record .. (1938 2nd (84F), 1960 3rd (83F), 2002 4th (82F), 2003 5th (81F), 2006 6th (80F), 1896 7th (79F)). _86F ___ Apr 30 ___ 1903 (82F) _________ 1942 (91F) __ 1942 (91F) __ (1941 2nd (86F), 1985 3rd (84F), 1903 4th (82F), 1901,10,44,65,2007 t5th (80F)). _96F ___ May 22 ___ eventual record .. (1992 2nd (93F), 1959 3rd (91F), 1991 4th (90F), 1914,21,34 t5th (89F), 1944,74 t8th (88F)). _96F ___ June 22 __ 1921 (95F) _________ 1988 (98F) __ 1988 (98F) ___ (1941 2nd (96F), 1921 3rd (95F), 1943 4th (94F), 1888 5th (93F)). _94F ___ June 27 __ 1875,76,80,1900 (92F)_ 1943 (98F) __ 1966 (101F) ___ (1943 2nd (98F), 1963,83 t3rd (95F), 1941 5th (94F)). _95F ___ Aug 8 _____________ 1896 (95F) _ 1980 (96F) __ 2001 (99F) ___ (1980 2nd (96F), 1896,1941,1983 t3rd (95F), 1916,18,79 t6 (94F)). _93F ___ Aug 26 ____________ 1900 (93F) _ 1948 (103F) _1948 (103F)__ (1993 2nd (96F), 1980 3rd (95F), 1900,41 t4th (93F)). _91F ___ Sep 17 ____________ 1915 (91F) __ 1972 (92F) __1991 (93F) __ (1972 2nd (92F), 1915,41 t3rd (91F), 1942 5th (90F)). _88F ___ Oct 4 ___ eventual record .. (1959, 2013 2nd (86F), 1891, 1967, 1983, 2007 t4th (84F), 1954 8th (83F)). _94F ___ Oct 5 ___ eventual record .. (1922 2nd (89F), 1891, 1967 t3rd (86F), 1931,51 t5th (84F). 2007,17 (83F)). [Oct monthly max] _90F ___ Oct 6 ___ eventual record -- (1959 2nd (88F), 1946 3rd (87F), 1931,95 t3rd (86F), 1910,90 t5th (84F), 2007 7th (83F)). _66F ___ Nov 14 ___ 1937 (64F) __________ 1951 (67F) __1993 (72F) __(1973,80 t2nd (71F), 1989 4th (70F), 2011 5th (69F), 1955 6th (68F), 1951,59,78 (67F)). _61F ___ Dec 24 ___ 1891 (60F) __________ 1990 (63F) __ 2015 (72F) __ (1990,96 t-2nd (63F), 1941 4th (61F), 1891 5th (60F)). ++++++++++++++++++++++++________________________________________________+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1942 _ The year 1942 was somewhat closer to average and its main warm intervals came in April and November. The year set seven new records, two ties reduced the count to 6.00. Of those, one (Apr 30) has survived, a rate of 16.7%. The average amount by which these 1942 records increased previous values was 1.9 F deg. The average year breaking six 1942 records was 1977, which changes to 1984 if the April 30 record goes in 2022. The average surplus of eventual records to the 1942 marks is 4.6 F deg. There was one surviving record low maximum, 37F on April 10th. A value of 8F on Dec 20th was one higher than a record set in 1899 and since tied twice. From an original count of 2.33 record low minima, there were two surviving record low minima, including a one-third share of 42F on Sep 29, and -4F on Dec 20 (count 1.33). A record set on Jan 8th (5F) was later broken in 1968 (2F). The year has no surviving record high minima. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _69F ___ Mar 8 ___ 1878 (65F) ___________ 1987 (76F) __ 1987 (76F) __ (2012 2nd (71F), 2016 3rd (67F), 1878 4th (65F), 2009 5th (64F)). _84F ___ Apr 26 ___1872 (83F) ___________ 2009 (92F) __ 2009 (92F) __ (1942 2nd (84F), 1872, 2011 t-3rd (83F), 1970 5th (82F), 1925,69,85 t6th (80F)). _91F ___ Apr 30 __ eventual record .. (1941 2nd (86F), 1985 3rd (84F), 1903 4th (82F), 1901,10,44,65,2007 t5th (80F)) _83F ___ May 4 ___ 1919 (82F) ___________ 1944 (85F) __ 2001 (92F) __ (1965 2nd (90F), 1963 3rd (86F), 1944, 2015 t-4th (85F), 2018 6th (84F), 1942,49 t-5th (83F)). _92F ___ May 30 ______________1871 (92F) _1986 (94F) __1987 (97F) __ (1986 2nd (94F), 1871,1942 t3rd (92F), 1931 5th (91F), 1895,1969,1991,2013 t6th (90F)). _95F ___ July 14 ___ 1936 (93F) ___________ 1952 (96F) __1954 (100F) _ (1952, 1995 t2nd (96F), 1942,66,74 t4th (95F), 1983,97 t7th (94F)). _74F ___ Nov 20 ______________ 1934 (74F) _1985 (77F) __1985 (77F) ___ (1934,42,48,91 t2nd 74F), 1913,41 t-6th (72F), 1953 8th (71F)). +++++++++++++++++++++++ ______________________________________ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1943 _ A rather cold first five months were followed by a hot June, but the rest of 1943 was rather average most of the time. The year set only five record highs, a bit more than its random expectation of 4.87. Of these, one has survived with a later tie (June 25, tied by 1952). This is a count of 0.50 and a survival rate of 10%. The average amount by which 1943 broke previous records was 2.2 F deg. We now see a year that broke mostly non-starter records (four of five). The average year breaking four 1943 records was only 1953, which changes to 1967 if the June 25 record falls this year. The average surplus of eventual records to 1943 values was 3.25 F deg which reduces to 2.6 F counting the surviving record. 1943 had shares in four eventual record low maxima, but with one ordinary tie and two three-way ties, the count was only 2.17. (a reminder, random expectation here is 2.4 since we are discussing surviving records), and the most noteworthy was 8F on Feb 15th. The year set five record low minima, including a benchmark -8F also on Feb 15th (no later readings in the first part of the calendar year this low, and the third lowest temperature recorded at NYC, only 1917 and 1934 have colder records (Dec 30 and Feb 9). This was a brief cold spell that quickly reverted to near-record warmth in the low 60s for several days. Later in the year, 1943 was part of a six-way tie for March 3rd (11F), and holds the record for April 15 (28F), July 1 (52F) after a week of record heat, this was July's lowest minimum in the data set, and 1988 hit 53F on this date after similar heat earlier. It's interesting that even with the urban heat island well advanced by 1943 (and more so by 1988) these July 1st minima were colder than anything recorded in the 1869-1900 era in July. The only other July minimum of 53F occurred in 1979. The total count for these four records is 3.17. The only loss of records set during the year was the further three ties for March 3rd as the count was 3.33 during the year itself, a survival rate of 95%. The June heat wave produced two surviving record high minima, but before those, June 3 and 4 also produced record high minima of 75F and 78F. Then 76F on 27th set another record, and 77F on 28th tied 1876. A reading of 78F on 25th (tying 1904) fell to 81F in 1952. The count is 3.50. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _99F ___ June 25 __ eventual record tied later by 1952 .. (1923 3rd warmest (97F), 1963 4th (95F), 1870,80,98 t-5th (94F)). 1997 (93F).) _96F ___ June 26 ___ 1923 (94F) _____________ 1952 (100F) _ 1952 (100F) __ (1943,49,63 t2nd (96F), 1950 5th (95F), 1923 6th (94F)). _98F ___ June 27 ___ 1941 (94F) _____________ 1966 (101F) _ 1966 (101F) __ (1943 2nd (98F), 1963,83 t3rd (95F), 1941 5th (94F)) _94F ___ Aug 25 ___ 1893,1900 (93F) ________ 1948 (95F) __ 1948 (95F) __ (1943,69,93 t-2nd (94F), 1893,1900,68,80 t-5th (93F)). _83F ___ Oct 7 ____ 1912,27,39 (81F) ________ 1944 (88F) __ 1944 (88F) __ (1946,61 t-2nd (86F), 1943,63 t-4th (83F), 1990,2007 t-6th (82F)). ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++_________________________ ---------------------------------------------- 1944 _ The year 1944 is mainly noteworthy for severe heat in August that lasted about two weeks setting frequent records, most of which have survived. Most other months were either near average or occasionally slightly warmer than average but not so warm as to produce a lot of record highs. Twelve days set records but three were ties (one ordinary, one three-way) for a count of 10.17. Seven of these have survived, one being tied in 2015, for a count of 6.50. That is a survival rate of 63.9%, the highest so far encountered, and not surpassed until 1953 (84.2%). These records surpassed earlier marks by an average of 2.5 F deg. The five broken 1944 records were broken by 1973 on average, but that changes to 2001 if the seven surviving records fall later this year. Five 1944 records have been surpassed by an average of 4.4 F deg, but this reduces to 1.8 F if the seven unbroken ones are included. The year set no surviving low maximum records. Nor were there any low minimum records, with the one tied record (50F June 5th) being broken the next year by 1945's eventual record low of 47F (so this is also the extinction date for 1944 record low minima). With the count of 0.5 for the year, 1944 was tied with 1931 at second lowest (1908 had zero) until 1948 also had zero during the year. Surprisingly, there were also no record high minima. The long August heat wave must not have been very humid because minima consistently dropped to the low to mid 70s, while earlier records already set in many cases were in the high 70s or even low 80s. It was oppressive enough with the lowest reading August 11-17 being 73F. (highest min was 77F on the 14th). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _85F ___ May 4 ___ 1942 (83F) __________ 1963 (86F) __ 2001 (92F) __ (1965 2nd (90F), 1963 3rd (86F), 1944, 2015 t-4th (85F), 2018 6th (84F), 1942,49 t-5th (83F)) _94F ___ July 25 __________1873,85 (94F) _1987 (95F) __ 1999 (97F) __ (1987 2nd (95F), 1873,85,1944 t3rd (94F)). _100F ___ Aug 4 ___ eventual record .. (1993,1995 t2 (96F), 1936,55,2005 t4 (95F), 1888,1928,1987 t7 (94F)). _101F ___ Aug 5 ___ eventual record .. (1955 2nd (100F), 2005 3rd (98F), 1930 4th (96F), 1918,31,2010 t-5th (95F)). _102F ___ Aug 11 __ eventual record .. (1949 2nd (99F), 2005 3rd (97F), 1896,1900 t-4th (96F), 1988 6th (95F)). _97F ___ Aug 12 ___ eventual record .. (2002,05 t-2nd (96F), 1988,95 4th (94F), 1896,2016 t-6th (93F), 1872,91,1907,29 t-8th (92F)). _96F ___ Aug 13 ____________ 1881 (96F) _ 2002 (98F) __ 2005 (99F) __ (1881,1944,1988,2016 t-3rd (96F), 1947 7th (95F)). _96F ___ Aug 16 ___ eventual record .. (1938 2nd (95F), 1888 3rd (94F), 1970,1997,2002,2015 t4th (93F)) _95F ___ Aug 17 ___ eventual record tied later by 2015 .. (1922,1987,2002 t3rd (94F), 1913,59,97 t-6th (93F), 1937,56, 2009 t-9th (92F) _97F ___ Sep 2 ___ 1929, 32 (96F) ______ 1953 (102F)_ 1953 (102F) __ (t 2nd 1944 (97F), t3rd 1929,32,80 (96F), t5 1921, 2010 (94F)). _90F ___ Sep 5 __________ 1884,98 (90F) _1961 (93F) __ 1985 (94F) __ (1961 2nd (93F), 1983 3rd (91F), 1884,98,1944,59,70,71 t-3rd (90F)). _88F ___ Oct 7 ___ eventual record .. (1946,61 t-2nd (86F), 1943,63 t-4th (83F), 1990,2007 t-6th (82F) 1912,27,39,2017 t-8th (81F)). ________________ 1945 _ After a cold January, the spring turned very warm and set numerous records until around mid-April when the trend went in the other direction, and frequent cold records were set into early June. (After two records were set Apr 12-13, the 14th was a warmer day at 83F but had already been beaten by 1941 (85F)). The rest of the year alternated between near normal and somewhat warmer than average spells and there were a few more records set in the autumn before a cold December spell set in. With a total of 18 records, including five ordinary ties and two three-way ties, the count was 14.17, roughly three times random expectation (4.68). After 1945, only 1949 held more records at the end of its run. The survival rate is 35.3% for the five untied (four in March) survivors which include a monthly maximum of 86F (29th, later tied 31st 1998). 1945 records surpassed earlier marks by an average of 2.2 F deg, and the 13 since broken were overtaken on average by 1964. This would change to 1980 if the five surviving records fell by this time next year. The 13 records broken have been surpassed by an average of 6.8 F deg by eventual records, which falls to 4.9 F deg counting the five surviving records. There were also six record low maxima, with two ties reducing that count to 5.00, so 1945 reaches the end of the series with equal counts. Four records fell June 1st to June 5th and 52F on June 4th is tied with 2nd 1907, 1946 as the lowest for any June day (and a benchmark being later than those). Others include a share of Aug 24th and 57F on Sep 17th. There were five record low minima, again most of them in early June, one also in January (2F on 25th). 44F on June 1st was the June monthly minimum also. The count was 4.20 with one five-way tie entered. As 1945 was the fourth year to enter that tie (1946 completed the set of five), and there were no other 1945 low minimum records that have not survived, the survival rate for the count of 4.25 is 98.8%, ranked fourth so far behind three years with 100% survival rates (1891, 1910, 1932). It would remain fourth until 1949 joined the 100% group (and also 1953, 1955). However as 1945 had more records than any of the years mentioned, it can be seen as the most robust year for maintaining record lows. Two other values (53F Aug 24th, and 38F on Oct 4th, tied 1974) came within one degree of breaking records established in 1888 and 1890, and those would probably have succeeded without the much larger (by 1945) urban heat island. Two others were within 1F of records set in 1926. There were three record high minima in 1945, but none from March have survived. Readings of 59F, 60F and 58F March 28-30 all survived until 1998 (63F, 62F, 59F). Earlier March candidates fell to years such as 1948 and 1990. April 13th had more luck, 61F surviving 60F lows in 1987 and 2018. June 15 and 30 have tied values and the count for three days with shares is 1.83. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _63F ___ Mar 15 _____________ 1913 (63F) _ 1983 (68F) __ 1990 (77F) ___ 1913, 1945 later tied by 1971 _75F ___ Mar 17 __ eventual record .. (1990 2nd (72F), 1989 3rd (70F), 2003 4th (69F), 1927,35 t5th (67F)). _83F ___ Mar 20 __ eventual record .. (1921 2nd (78F), 2020 3rd (77F), 2010 4th (74F), 2012 5th (73F), 1976 6th (72F)). _74F ___ Mar 27 ___ 1914,39 (73F) _________ 1949 (75F) __ 1998 (83F) ___ (2007 2nd (78F), 1949 3rd (75F), 1945, 1985 t-4th (74F)). _84F ___ Mar 28 __ eventual record .. (1921 2nd warmest (82F), 1998 3rd (80F), 1946 4th (79F), 1985 5th (78F)). _86F ___ Mar 29 __ eventual record .. (1985 2nd (82F), 1977,1998 t-3rd (81F), 1946 5th (78F)) [monthly max later tied 31st 1998] .* _75F ___ Apr 3 ______________ 1892 (75F) _ 1967 (76F) __ 1981 (81F) __ (2002 2nd (77F), 1967 3rd (76F), 1892, 1945 t4th (75F)). _73F ___ Apr 12 ___ 1889 (68F) ___________1947 (78F) __ 1977 (90F) ________ 1996 (80F). _81F ___ Apr 13 ___ 1890 (79F) ___________ 1968 (82F) __ 1977 (88F) ___ (1968, 2018 t-2nd (82F), 1945 4th (81F), 1890 5th (79F), 2006 6th (78F)). _93F ___ June 17 ________1892, 1939 (93F) _1952 (95F) __1957 (96F) _ (1892,1939,1945 t3rd (93F), 1891,1929 t6th (92F), 1944,2017 8th (91F)). _97F ___ June 30 ___ 1901,31 (95F) _______ 1964 (99F) __ 1964 (99F) __ (1945 2nd (97F), 1901,31 t3rd (95F), 1906,66,68 t5th (94F)). _93F ___ Aug 29 _____________ 1926 (93F) _1948 (95F) __ 1953 (99F) ____ 1926, 1945 (93F) t5, 1948t1973 t2, 2010 (94F) 4th. _88F ___ Sep 29 ___ eventual record .. (1921 2nd (86F), 1923,48 t-3rd (84F), 1952,53,59,2015 t-5th (83F), 1884,91 t-7th (82F)). _80F ___ Oct 19 ___ 1928 (79F) __________ 1963 (83F) __ 2016 (85F) __ (1963 2nd (83F), 1965 3rd (81F), 1945 4th (80F), 1928 5th (79F)). _71F ___ Oct 29 ________ 1918,35 (71F) ___ 1946 (77F) __ 1971 (78F) __ (1946 2nd (77F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1984 4th (74F), 2015 5th (73F)). _76F ___ Oct 31 ___________ 1933 (76F) ___ 1946 (81F) __ 1946 (81F) __ (1933,45,50,61 t2nd (76F), 1919 6th (74F), 1942,94 t7th (73F)) _72F ___ Nov 8 ___ 1938 (71F) ___________ 1975 (76F) __ 1975 (76F) __ (2020 2nd (75F), 1945 3rd (72F), 1938 4th (71F)). _72F ___ Nov 9 ____________1895 (72F) ____1975 (75F) __ 1975,2020 (75F) _ (1986 3rd (73F), 1895,1945,1950 t4th (72F), 1916 7th (71F)) . * Mar 29 previous high 76F 1910. ______________________________________________ 1946 _ The following year took a somewhat different path to a similar warm March outcome, from modest warmth in January and February. After this warm spell ended in early April, there was no return to warmer than normal conditions through the summer which was relatively temperate by NYC standards. The autumn however was almost as warm as the March spell, and for much of the time in both October and November, with the warmth fading gradually in December. The count for fourteen days with records was 12.50 (well above the random expected 4.68). Of these, seven have survived, one later tied in 1961, for a count of 6.50 and a survival rate of 52%. Jan 7 (62F) was tied second warmest after 1907 (64F). Two days in late March were near 80F but had been beaten the previous year by all-time records. The records set in 1946 surpassed earlier marks by an average of 3.4 F deg. The average year breaking seven of these records was 1973, but if the other seven are broken within the next year, that would change to 1997. The average by which seven broken records of 1946 were surpassed by eventual record highs was 4.6 F deg, which is reduced to 2.4 F counting the surviving records. There were three record low maxima surviving from 1946, two tied for a count of 2.00. April 27th (45F) was the lone exclusive mark, but a tie with 1907 on June 2nd (52F) matched the June monthly minimum set the previous year. A third tied record was 70F (tied 1881) on Aug 19th. Two tied low minima survive from 1946 (June 2nd 48F tied with four other years and July 16th 56F tied 1926) for a count of 0.70. During the year 1946 had a count of 1.70, holding Jan 20th (5F) until 1985 (4F) (eventually 1994 set this record at 0 deg F). There are also five record high minima, including 54F on Jan 7, Oct 29 and 30 (63F and 64F, tied 1918), Nov 26 (55F, tied in 2020), and Dec 10 (54F tied in 1966) for a count of 3.50. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _62F __ Jan 6 ____ 1929 (61F) ____________ 1950 (63F) __ 2007 (72F) ___ (1946 3rd (62F), 1929 4th (61F), 1998 5th (59F)). _63F ___ Feb 14 ___ eventual record .. (1949 2nd (59F), 1938, 1990, 2011 t3rd (58F), 1984 6th (57F)). _69F ___ Mar 4 ______________1880 (69F) __1974 (70F) __ 1974 (70F) __ (1880,1946 t-2nd (69F), 1874 4th (64F), 2008 5th (63F)). _74F ___ Mar 7 ___ eventual record .. (1987 2nd (71F), 2009 3rd (70F), 1878, 1974 t-4th (69F), 1921 6th (68F)). _75F ___ Mar 14 __ eventual record .. (1903,2007,2012 t-2nd (70F), 1957 5th (69F), 1990 6th (68F), 1953,2002 t-7th (67F)). _90F ___ Sep 19 _____________ 1906 (90F) __1983 (94F) _ 1983 (94F) __ (1906,46 t2nd (90F), 1947 4th (88F), 1882,1963,67 t-5th (87F)). _77F ___ Oct 24 ______________1900 (77F) _ 2001 (79F) _ 2001 (79F) __ (1900,46,63 t-2nd (77F), 1973 5th (76F), 1940,72, 2017 t6th (74F)). _77F ___ Oct 29 ____1918,35,45 (71F) _____1971 (78F) __ 1971 (78F) __ (1946 2nd (77F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1984 4th (74F), 2015 5th (73F)). _82F ___ Oct 30 ___ eventual record later tied by 1961 .. (1950 3rd (79F), 2016 4th (76F), 1918,94 t5th (75F), 1971 7th (74F)). _81F ___ Oct 31 ___ eventual record .. (1933,45,50,61 t2nd (76F), 1919 6th (74F), 1942,94 t7th (73F)). _63F ___ Nov 25 ___ 1931 (62F) __________1966 (64F) __ 1979 (73F) __ (2014 2nd (68F), 2001 3rd (66F), 1973,90 t-4th (65F), 1966 6th (64F)). _67F ___ Nov 26 __ eventual record .. (1895,1979,1988 t2nd (66F), 2011,2020 t-5th (65F), 1986,99 t-7th (63F)). _61F ___ Dec 9 ___ 1889, 1924 (60F) ____1966 (66F) __ 1966 (66F) ___ (1991 2nd (64F), 1980 3rd (63F), 1946,53 t4th (61F), 1889,1924,87 t6th (60F). _70F ___ Dec 10 ___ eventual record .. (2008 2nd (65F), 1953 3rd (63F), 1966 4th (62F), 1911,39 t5 (61F), 1878,1885,2015 t-7th (60F)). ______________________________ 1947 _ While parts of Europe were having record-breaking cold, as well as northwestern Canada and Alaska, the regime in eastern North America was rather close to normal in temperatures, with the occasional brief spell of milder readings. The colder period for NYC was in the spring and early summer. This reversed to heat waves in August and September and the warmth persisted into October when it peaked relative to normal (although not in absolute terms), leaving the month near the top of the October average rankings with several records to show for it. Oct 21st (83F) lost out to earlier 1920 (84F). This autumn warmth oscillated away to a colder pattern by December. Some later spikes in temperature can be seen across the Atlantic in Britain in late November 1947 with several CET daily records set. The year set or tied 12 records, for a count of 9.33 (four ordinary ties, one three-way ties). Four have survived, although two with one tied year and another with two tied years, for a surviving count of 2.33, and a survival rate of 25%. The 1947 records surpassed earlier marks by an average of 2.7 F, and the average year breaking eight of them was 1969, which would change to 1987 if the four surviving records fell within the next year. The average by which eventual records broke 1947 records was 3.8 F, which changes to 2.5 F deg counting the surviving records. There were just two record low maxima, for a count of 1.33, but May 8th (50F) was only beaten by one degree later in 1962. 56F on June 8 marked the third consecutive year to break records in early June. With the count originally 8.0, there were six eventual record low minima in 1947, two ties in May (one with 1920 and one with 1966), and four more records (including one tie) September 23rd (41F) to October 1st (36F). The latter was a benchmark for earliest in season. The count was 4.50 with the ties. Also the year produced a total of three record high minima, 58F on April 12th later tied in 2017, 74F on Sep 14th, and 64F on Oct 21st (tied in 1979) for a count of 2.00. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _60F ___ Jan 20 ___1907 (58F) _________ 1951 (61F) __ 1951, 2006 (61F) __ (1947 3rd (60F), 1907 4th (58F), 1900 5th (57F), 1913, 1933 t6th (56F)). _56F ___ Jan 25 ____________ 1938 (56F) _1967 (60F) __ 1967 (60F) __ (2010 3rd (56F), 1938,47,90 t3rd (56F), 1916,34 t6th (55F)). _63F ___ Jan 30 ___ 1932 (60F) _________ 2006 (64F) __ 2006 (64F) __ (1947 2nd (63F), 2002 3rd (61F), 1932 4th (60F), 2013 5th (59F)). _63F ___ Jan 31 ___ eventual record tied by 1916 .. (1913, 2013 t-3rd (61F), 1974 5th (60F), 2012 6th (59F), 1953 7th (57F)). _79F ___ Apr 6 ___ eventual record tied by 1912, 1921 .. (2010 4th (78F), 1928,1991 t-5th (77F), 1910 7th (76F), 2005 8th (75F)). _78F ___ Apr 12 __ 1945 (73F) __________ 1977 (90F) __ 1977 (90F) __ (1996 2nd (80F), 1947 3rd (78F), 2008,17 t-4th (76F), 1965 6th (74F)). _93F ___ Aug 24 ____________1898 (93F) _ 1972 (94F) __ 1972 (94F) __ (1898,1947 t-2nd (93F), 1969 4th (92F), 1895,1905,19,53,64,74,80,95 t-5th (91F)). _89F ___ Sep 13 ____________ 1931 (89F) _ 1952 (94F) __ 1952 (94F) __ (2005 2nd (92F), 1957 3rd (91F), 1931,47,48,76 t4th (89F)). _80F ___ Oct 20 ___ eventual record later tied by 1969 .. (1965 3rd (79F), 1938,53 t-4th (78F), 1916,36,39 t-5th (77F), 1979,84 t-8th (76F)). _85F ___ Oct 23 ___ eventual record .. (1979, 2007 t-2nd (78F), 1871,1900,1978 t-4th (76F), 1901,86,95 t-7th (75F), 1928,2017 t-10th (74F)). _76F ___ Oct 26 ___1924 (73F) __________1963 (78F) __ 1963,64 (78F) _ (1989 3rd (77F), 1947 4th (76F), 1971,73 t5 (75F), 1924 7th (73F)). _78F ___ Oct 27 ___1899 (75F) __________1963 (82F) __ 1963 (82F) __ (1947 2nd (78F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1899.1991,2010 t-4th (75F)), _________________________________________________________ 1948 _ There were brief warm spells in the spring of 1948 although nothing exceptional, then after a rather cool July, August turned very hot near the end of the month. This warmth persisted through much of September, disappeared for October and returned in November, fading somewhat in December. Nine days set or tied records, the count reaching 7.67 as two cases were three-way ties set. Of these, five have survived, four in late August and one in November later tied in 2015, for a count of 4.50, which is a survival rate of 58.7%. These 1948 records increased previous marks by 4.2 F deg. The average year breaking four of them is 1963, and with the five surviving records added this changes to 1995. The heat wave Aug 25-28 was similar to one that started around the 28th in 1953 and again in 1973. The average by which four 1948 records were surpassed by eventual records was 4.75 F deg which reduces to 2.1 F counting the surviving five. There was just one low maximum, a tie with 1940 for 41F on April 14th. No record low minima were set during the year, although 0 deg F on Jan 31st was one above the 1920 record. This became the second year after 1908 not to set any record low minima. There were five record high minima. Two were in mid-March (57F on 20th, 22nd). The next two were in the August heat wave (78F and 79F from 26th and 27th survive, while 78F on 28th and 29th have been edged out by 79F, 81F in 2018. The final record was 52F on Dec 30. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _59F ___ Feb 19 ___ 1930 (57F) _________ 1961 (63F) __ 1997 (66F) __ (2017 2nd (65F), 1961 3rd (63F), 1994 4th (61F), 1948,49,54.81 t5th (59F)). _95F ___ Aug 25 ___ eventual record .. (1943,69,93 t-2nd (94F), 1893,1900,68,80 t-5th (93F)). _103F __ Aug 26 ___ eventual record .. (1993 2nd (96F), 1980 3rd (95F), 1900,41 t4th (93F), 1912,25,33,59 t6th (92F)). _101F __ Aug 27 ___ eventual record .. (1980 2nd (97F), 1993 3rd (96F), 1953 4th (95F), 1900,33,59,83 t-6th (92F)). _100F __ Aug 28 ___ eventual record .. (1953,73 t-2nd (98F), 1980,93 t-4th (95F), 1959,2018 t-6th (94F)). repl 1886 (90F). _95F ___ Aug 29 ___ 1926,45 (93F) _______ 1953 (99F) __ 1953 (99F) __ (1948t1973 t2 (95F), 2010 4th (94F), 1926,45 t-5th (93F)). _89F ___ Sep 13 __________ 1931,47 (89F) _ 1952 (94F) __ 1952 (94F) __ (2005 2nd (92F), 1957 3rd (91F), 1931,47,48,76 t4th (89F)). _74F ___ Nov 6 ___ eventual record later tied by 2015 .. 1959 3rd (73F), 1938,78,94,2020 t4th (70F), 2005 8th (69F). _74F ___ Nov 20 ________ 1934,1942 (74F) __1985 (77F) __ 1985 (77F) ___ (1934,42,48,91 t2nd 74F), 1913,41 t-6th (72F), 1953 8th (71F)). ______________________________________________ 1949 _ This was quite a warm year in general with a very mild and snowless winter (1948-49) while parts of the western U.S. suffered from cold and blizzards. Record highs were frequent through the spring and summer and returned in October after a relatively cool September. A very mild winter followed in 1949-50. The year could have added a few near misses to this list, such as 61F on Jan 19 (62F in 1929), 88F on Oct 10, which lost out to earlier 91F in 1939, also 80F on Oct 21 (84F in 1920). There were 17 records, including four ties and one three-way tie, for a count of 14.33, over three times random expectation of 4.51. Of those, ten have survived, two are ordinary ties, one is a three-way tie, and one a four-way tie, for a count of 7.58. That is a survival rate of 52.9%. No year after 1949 held as many records, and now it ranks fourth in record count behind 2001 (9.33), 1990 (8.00) and 1991 (8.5). The count of 1949 by 1990 was 10.17 so this year competed well through a very warm period. The average increase of 1949 records over previous marks was 2.7 F. The average year breaking seven 1949 records was 1981, which would change to 2002 if the ten existing records all fell within the next year. The average surplus of eventual records to seven broken from 1949 is 5.7 F deg, which reduces to 2.4 if the ten surviving records are also counted. There were no surviving record low maxima from 1949. The year managed one record low minimum, 55F on Aug 20th. As this was the only record low during 1949 (no others have been broken since) the survival rate is 100%, the fourth time this happened so far. Two readings that came within 3 deg of records in late May are the closest approach to the record table otherwise. Also there were five record high minima that have survived to the end of the data, those being 50F Feb 14th, 61F Mar 27th, 61F Apr 27th (tied in 2011), 45F Dec 19 (later tied twice) and 57F Dec 27th for a count of 3.83. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ________ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _60F ___ Feb 9 ___ 1898,1937 (51F) _______ 1990 (63F) __ 1990 (63F) ___ (1949 2nd (60F), 2001 3rd (58F), 1960 4th (57F)). _73F ___ Feb 15 ___ eventual record .. (1954 2nd (69F), 1939,2018 t-3rd (62F), 1967 5th (60F), 2019 6th (59F), 1915,72,84 t-7th (58F)). _59F ___ Feb 19 ______________ 1948 (59F) _ 1961 (63F) __ 1997 (66F) __ (2017 2nd (65F), 1961 3rd (63F), 1994 4th (61F), 1948,49,54.81 t5th (59F)). _75F ___ Mar 27 ___ 1945 (74F) _____________ 1998 (75F) __ 1998 (83F) ___ (2007 2nd (78F), 1949 3rd (75F), 1945, 1985 t-4th (74F)). _90F ___ May 5 __ eventual record tied later by 1955, 1980 .. 1930, 1934 t4th (89F), 1919 6th (88F), 1944 7th (87F), 2000 8th (86F). _92F ___ May 6 __ eventual record tied later by 1986 .. (1930 3rd (91F), 1918 4th (90F) 1934,39,2000 t5 (89F)). _96F ___ June 26 ________________ 1943 (96F) _ 1952 (100F) _ 1952 (100F) _ (1943,49,63 t-2nd (96F), 1950 5th (95F), 1923 6th (94F) 2003 (93F). _102F __ July 4 ___ eventual record .. (1919 2nd (99F), 1966 3rd (98F), 1911,55 t-4th (97F), 1898,1999,2002,2010 t-6th (96F)). _98F ___ July 28 __ eventual record tied by 1892, 1931, 1999 .. (5th warmest 1983 (96F), t6th 1929, 1963, 2015,16 (95F)) _99F ___ July 29 __ eventual record .. (1892 2nd (97F), 1894, 2002,15 t3rd (96F), 1898, 1933 t-6th (95F), 1993 8th (94F)). _100F __ Aug 9 ___ 1896 (98F) _____________ 2001 (103F) _ 2001 (103F) __ (1949 2nd (100F), 1896 3rd (98F), 1941 4th (97F), 1924 5th (96F)). _98F ___ Aug 10 ___ eventual record tied by 1891 .. (1944,2001 t-3rd (97F), 1900,13,79 t5th (95F)). 1896,1911 t8th (94F)). _85F ___ Oct 11 ___ eventual record .. (1954 2nd (84F), 1914,55 t-3rd (83F), 1960 5th (81F), 1919 6th (80F), 1904 7th (79F), ________________________ 1918, 1962 t-8th (78F), 1920, 1928,1930,1934,1990,1995,2017,2018 t-10th (77F)).** _74F ___ Nov 11 ___ eventual record .. (2020 2nd (72F), 1880, 2002 t-3rd (68F), 1984,99, 2006 t-5th (66F)). _63F ___ Dec 22 ___ 1875 (59F) _________ 2013 (71F) __ 2013 (71F) __ (1949,1998 t2nd (63F), 1967, 2015 t-4th (62F), 1990 6th (61F)). _63F ___ Dec 27 ___ eventual record .. (1973,2015 t-2 (61F), 1936,1964,2016 t-4th (60F)). _59F ___ Dec 28 _____________ 1936 (59F) _ 1954 (61F) __1982, 2008 (65F) __ (1954 3rd (61F), 2018 4th (60F), 1936,49,88 t5th (59F)). ** Oct 11 _ full list of warm days is unusual for the number near the top and also the relative lack of recent warmth on this date. +++++ __________ ___ +++ 1950 _ January was one of the mildest on record and holds extreme value records for both max (72F on 26th) and min (59F on 4th). The year turned relatively cool from February to mid-summer, then the autumn became warm again, with Nov 1-2 in the 80s. The year missed an opportunity to add a record with 86F (Oct 1st) already taken by 1927 (88F). A memorable storm occurred in late November (24th-26th), bringing heavy snowfalls (over two feet in places) to a region west of the Appalachians into south central Ontario, and very strong southeast winds to NYC, but it had little impact on the temperature records. There were nine record highs set with one ordinary tie and one three-way tie, for a count of 7.83. Of those, five have survived, one later tied in 1993, for an eventual record count of 4.50, and a survival rate of 57.5%. The average 1950 record increase over previous marks was 4.8 F deg. The four broken 1950 records went down to 1975 on two occasions, 1997 and 2007 for an average of 1989. That would change to 2007 if the five surviving records fell within the next year, and this is the most recent such statistic encountered yet (a year with no broken records would come out to 2021 or 2022 in this case). Noting that two of the five are monthly maxima, it seems likely that 1950 will survive a while longer in the list of records. The average surplus of the eventual records to the four broken is 8.0 F deg and that reduces to 3.6 F counting the five surviving records. The count of record low maxima surviving from 1950 is 1.33, with a third of the March 3rd record of 26F (tied 1943, 2009), and 48F on May 19th. The record low minimum count for 1950 is 2.17 with a share of March 3rd (six tied) and also the records for April 14th (26F) and June 18th (48F). The count during the year was 5.45, and 1950 has a worse survival rate (39.8%) than any year except 1951 (after 1944) except for those which set no records that could be preserved. No year since 1950 has lost three record lows. It will be mentioned again at the appropriate time, but Jan 20, 1985 is the last record low minimum not to survive to the end of the data (it was broken in 1994). After the 1950s there are very few temporary record lows. There was only one surviving record high minimum, 59F on January 4th, which is the monthly maximum value for high minima. The late October and early November warm spell had several near misses including 61F on Oct 29th (already set at 63F in 1946). Readings of 58F, 59F on Nov 1-2 were not records even in 1950, but the values that exceeded them then have since been broken by eventual records of 65F in 1956 and 67F in 1971. Even so, the mean temperatures of 71F for both dates (Nov 1-2) in 1950 were more typical of early September at NYC. Toronto also had its warmest November day on Nov 1st (75F). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties _____ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _60F __ Jan 3 ____ 1913 (59F) __________ 1997 (62F) __ 2000 (64F) ___ (1950 3rd (60F), 1913,51 t-4th (59F), 1876, 2004,05 t-6th (58F)). _66F __ Jan 4 ___ eventual record .. (1993 2nd (64F), 1998 3rd (62F), 1951 4th (61F), 1906,1907,2000 t5th (60F)), _64F __ Jan 5 ___ eventual record later tied by 1993 .. (2007 3rd (62F), 1874 4th (59F), 1916 5th (58F), 1997 6th (57F)). _63F __ Jan 6 ____ 1946 (62F) ___________ 2007 (72F) __ 2007 (72F) ___ (1950 2nd (63F), 1946 3rd (62F), 1929 4th (61F), 1998 5th (59F)). _72F __ Jan 26 ___ eventual record .. (1916,52 t-2nd (60F), 1990 4th (59F), 1967 5th (58F), 1913, 2002,17 t-5th (56F)). [monthly max later tied 6th, 2007] _53F __ Jan 29 _____________ 1887 (53F) _ 1975 (55F) __ 2002 (69F) __ (1975 2nd (55F), 1887, 1950, 2006 t3rd (53F)). _84F ___ Nov 1 ___ eventual record .. (1974 2nd (81F), 1982, 2003 t-3rd (77F), 1927,29,52 t-5th (73F)). [Nov monthly max] _83F ___ Nov 2 ___ eventual record .. (1982 2nd (79F), 1968 3rd (77F), 1929 4th (76F), t5th 1971,2001 (75F)). _72F ___ Nov 9 _______1895,1945 (72F) __1975 (75F) __ 1975,2020 (75F) _ (1986 3rd (73F), 1895,1945,1950 t4th (72F), 1916 7th (71F)) . ___________________________________ (decade of 1951-60) __________________________ We now reach the decade of 1951-60 which started out very warm but saw some tendency to cooling later. The decade now holds 28.33 of the 366 daily record highs, and the first half holds 22 of those. There were 59 records for a count of 51.08 daily records set, one or two were duplicates on certain dates; the decade held shares of 54 days, 13 being ties reducing the count to around 46.58 total records set by 1960 (of which 28.33 have survived). As we move into this decade, survival rates generally increase towards 60% but it becomes harder for years to run up large totals as most of the weaker "low hanging fruit" has been taken by the aggressively warm 1930s and 1940s. Now it begins to require the sort of temperature that will not be easily toppled to set records. The first half of this decade continued the run of very warm conditions noted for most of the 1940s, and there were long summer heat waves in 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955 and 1959. Most other summers were average but 1956 and 1958 were relatively cool. The year 1958 is the first one in the study that failed to set a daily maximum record. The closest that it came to doing so was a reading of 89F on September 26th, two below the already existing record of 91F (1881) that was later tied in 1970. Three more such years were found (1992, 2004, 2014). 1951 _ This was often a rather average sort of year with mild spells in the winter and brief warm spells in other seasons, but also a notable cold period in early November. From seven record highs came a count of 7.00, well above the random expectation which by this point has fallen to 4.40. Of those, four survive, one being tied and the count is 3.5, for a survival rate of 50.0%. These 1951 records break existing values by an average of only 1.9 F. The average year breaking the three 1951 records that have fallen is 1962. Counting the four surviving records, the average would be 1996. The average surplus of eventual records to the three broken is 7.0 F but this reduces to 3.0 if we count the four surviving values. The year produced one surviving record low maximum (48F Oct 11). The year has a count of just 0.33 for record low minima, with a share of August 5th. During the year 1951, the count was 1.83, records on June 12th (51F) and June 13th (52F tied 1922) were later broken (in 1979 with 48F and 1953 with 51F). The tied record for Aug 5th had already been tied by 1886 and 1912. This made for a survival rate of just 18.2%. Of all years that set any records at all after 1951 (and about two dozen did not), this is the third lowest survival rate, the lowest after it were 1952 and 1959 (0.0%) which failed to preserve their 0.5 counts. However as mentioned quite a few years set no low minimum records after about 1997. There were three record high minima set late in the year: Nov 14 (58F), and Dec 7-8 which had 53F and 52F, the first is shared with 1956. The count is 2.50. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties _____ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _64F ___Jan 19 ___ eventual record .. (1929 2nd (62F), 1949 3rd (61F), 1876 4th (59F), 1915 5th (58F), 1972 6th (57F), 1933,73,96 t-7th (56F)). _61F ___ Jan 20 ___ eventual record tied later by 2006 .. (1947 3rd (60F), 1907 4th (58F), 1900 5th (57F), 1913, 1933 t6th (56F), 1890 8th (55F)) _64F ___ Feb 13 ___ eventual record .. (1869 2nd (61F), 1880, 1976 t-3rd (58F), 1900,37 t-5th (57F), 1876,82 t-7th (56F), ___ ___ ___ 1903,39,49,71,74 t-9th (55F), 1932,1966.2008 t-14th (54F)). (This is a rare case of a day without a top ten finish since 1975). _84F ___ Apr 29 ___ 1888 (83F) ________1974 (89F) _ 1974 (89F) __ (2017 2nd (85F), 1951 3rd (84F), 1888 4th (83F), 1903 5th (82F), 1938 6th (81F)). _90F ___ May 16 __ eventual record .. (1965,91 t-2nd (87F), 1870 4th (86F), 1998, 2017 t-5th (85F), 1877,1906,29,31,32,54 t-7th (83F)). _67F ___ Nov 14 ___ 1941 (66F) ________1955 (68F) __1993 (72F) __(1973,80 t2nd (71F), 1989 4th (70F), 2011 5th (69F), 1955 6th (68F), 1951,59,78 (67F)) _64F ___ Dec 7 ____ 1932 (63F) ________ 1956 (67F) __ 1998 (75F) __ (1956 2nd (67F), 1951 3rd (64F), 1932 4th (63F), 2011 5th (62F)). _________________________________________________________ 1952 _ The year is noteworthy for its hot summer, and the June and September portions were hottest relative to normal so it had an extended nature. Other than a rather cool October, all months of 1952 were somewhat above normal in temperature so there were frequent opportunities for warm temperature records, however, the total for the year was only seven records and a count of 6.00. Numerous days fell a few degrees short of records in both winter and summer, and again in early October. Of these, three have survived, one tied earlier 1943, and the count is 2.50 for surviving records, a survival rate of 41.67%. The average 1952 record improved on a former record by an average of 2.4 F deg. The average of years breaking four records from 1952 was 1958, with the three surviving records counted this becomes 1975. The average surplus of eventual records to four 1952 broken records was 3.75 F deg and this reduces to 2.1 F if the three surviving records are counted. There were two low maximum records broken, each tied for a count of just 0.83. There were no daily minimum records that survived from 1952, for which the count was only 0.5 after tying the Oct 20th record with 33F (tied with 1940, broken 1972 32F and eventually 1974 31F). With 1959, this is one of a handful of years in the entire record to set some records and fail to preserve any to the end. Four high minimum readings were included, 42F on Feb 2nd, 81F on June 26th (a monthly maximum also), 78F on July 14 and 80F on July 16. This was the first of four consecutive summers with a lot of heat and humidity (1952-55). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _95F __ June 17 ___1892,1939,45 (92F) _ 1957 (96F) _ 1957 (96F) __ (1952 2nd (95F), 1892,1939,45 t-3rd (93F), 1891,1929 t-6th (92F), 1962,2018 8th (91F)). 1952 _99F ___ June 25 __ eventual record tied by 1943 .. (1923 3rd warmest (97F), 1963 4th (95F), 1870,80,98 t-5th (94F) 1997 (93F).) _100F ___ June 26 __ eventual record .. (1943,49,63 t-2nd (96F), 1950 5th (95F), 1923 6th (94F) 2003 (93F). _96F ___ July 13 ___ 1916 (94F) ___________ 1966 (101F) _ 1966 (101F) _ (1952,54,94 t2nd (96F), 1979,93 t5th (95F), 1916 6th (94F)). _96F ___ July 14 ___ 1942 (95F) ___________ 1954 (100F) _ 1954 (100F) _ (1952, 1995 t2nd (96F), 1942,66,74 t4th (95F), 1983,97 t7th (94F)) _95F ___ July 23 ______________ 1918 (95F) _ 1955 (95F) _ 2011 (100F) _ (1955,91 t-2nd (99F), 2016 4th (96F), 1918,52,78 t5th (95F)). _94F ___ Sep 13 ___ eventual record .. (2005 2nd (92F), 1957 3rd (91F), 1931,1947,1948,1976 t4th (89F)). ______________________________________________________________________________ 1953 _ One of the warmest years on record, 1953 is best known for a heat wave in late summer with September's highest reading of 102F set on the 2nd, and also frequent warmth in November. 1949 and 1953 were almost as warm as recent years and without the full benefit of the modern urban heat island (although have estimated 80% or so), so in adjusted terms they are among the warmest years. 67F on Feb 21 was not a record (68F 1930). Also 90F on May 11 was one degree short of the 1896 record already set, but would have been a record or tied on any day from 13th to 21st. And 97F on June 20 fell one degree short of the 1923 record, the next day had the same reading which is currently tied with 1988 as a daily record. 97F on July 16 was one degree below the record from 1879. Three days were in the low 70s slightly below record values Nov 18-20 after the record high on Nov 17th. Dec 10th had a reading of 63F, higher than previous day's record value but lower than previously set 70F (1946). So the count of 11 records (10.00 with two ties) for 1953 could have been considerably higher, and of those, nine remain as records, two being tied for a count of 8.00. That is a survival rate of 80.0% (highest so far, not overtaken until 1964 on 2.5 for 3.0 for 83.3%) and gives 1953 the highest record count so far, eventually tied third with 1990 (2011 9.33 and 1991 8.50). These eleven 1953 records broke previous marks by an average of 3.0 F deg, and the two since broken were surpassed by an average of 3.0 F but this reduces to 0.6 F with the nine surviving records included. The two records broken fell in Dec 1966 and Jan 1995 (average Dec 1980) but that would become 2016 if all nine of the surviving records fell in 2021. There was a share of one record low maximum (38F Nov 6th tied with 1878) in 1953 (count 0.50). Also, there were two record low minima (count 2.00): 51F on June 13th and 57F on July 25th. That was the count during the year also, for a survival rate of 100% (now the fifth such year, and about to become more and more frequent, if years set any records they more often managed to hold on to them). The year produced three record high minima (count 3.00), 51F on March 14th, 78F on Aug 31 (but all other minimum readings in high 70s in that hot spell have been broken recently, or were already eclipsed by 1898), Minima during the November warm spell were several degrees below existing record highs, 55F on 22nd compared to 58F 1931 (later tied 1992). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _57F ___Jan 16 ____________ 1924 (57F ) _ 1995 (58F) _ 1995 (58F) __ (1924,53 t-2nd (57F), 1943 4th (56F), 1890,1933,90,91,2007 t-5th (55F)). _97F ___ June 21 __ eventual record tied later by 1988 .. (1923 2nd warmest (96F), 1949 3rd (95F), 1941, 2012 t-3rd (94F), 1966 5th (93F)). _100F __ July 17 ___ eventual record .. (1955,68,99 t-2nd (98F), 1885,1900,1977,2013 t-5th (97F), 1905,91,97 t-8th (96F)). _101F __ July 18 ___ eventual record .. (1977, 2012 t-2nd (100F), 1991 4th (99F), 1982,1999,2013 t5th (98F), 1955 8th (97F), 1905.88 t-9th (96F)). _ 99F ___ Aug 29 ___ eventual record .. (1948t1973 t2 (95F), 2010 4th (94F), 1926,45 t-5th (93F), 1991,2018 t-7 (92F)). _ 98F ___ Aug 30 ___ eventual record tied later by 1973 .. (1921 3rd (95F), 1991 4th (94F), 1945 5th (93F), 1928,1966,2010 t-6th (92F)). _100F ___ Aug 31 ___ eventual record .. (2010 2nd (96F), 1973 3rd (94F), 1881 4th (93F), 1924,25,41,45, 69 t5th (92F)). _ 97F ____ Sep 1 ____ eventual record .. (2010 2nd (96F), 1924,29,73,80 t3rd (95F), 1961 7th (94F), 1898,1941,69 t8th (93F)). _102F ___ Sep 2 ___ eventual record .. (1944 2nd (97F), 1929,32,80 t3rd (96F), 1961 6rh (95F), 1921,73,77,2010 t7th (94F)). [Sep monthly max] _71F ____ Nov 17 ___ eventual record .. (1896 2nd (70F), 1928 3rd (68F), 1927,87 t-4th (66F), 1903 6th (65F), 1891,1960,1993,2006 t7th (64F)). _61F ___ Dec 9 ______________ 1946 (61F) __1966 (66F) __ 1966 (66F) ___ (1991 2nd (64F), 1980 3rd (63F), 1946,53 t4th (61F), 1889,1924,87 t6th (60F). _____________________________________________________________________________ 1954 _ This year was fairly similar to the previous two but had a few colder spells than they had managed. After a somewhat colder January, February was a notably warm month, and the first half of October very warm, culminating in the northward moving destructive Hurricane Hazel which tracked through NC, VA,WV,PA and wNY into southern ON where its remnants (at tropical storm intensity although people in Ontario remember the event as "hurricane Hazel") set a daily rainfall record in the Toronto area on 15th-16th, the effects at NYC were more in terms of strong south-southeast wind gusts and an end to the warmest part of the late summery spell that had prevailed, although the rest of the autumn stayed quite mild. The year set eight records including three ordinary ties and one three-way tie, for a count of 5.83 (random expectation has fallen to 4.24), of which four (count 3.5) have survived (survival rate of 60%). 69F on Feb 15th, 100F on July 31 and 84F on Oct 11th failed to set records. These 1954 records broke previous marks by an average of 3.1 F deg, and for the first time no starter record was broken or tied (1905 was tied). The average year breaking four 1954 records was 1973. This would change to 1997 if the four surviving records fell within the next year. The average amount by which four records were surpassed eventually is 7.25 F deg, which reduces to 3.6 F if the four surviving records are counted. One low maximum record was set (57F on Sep 15th). There were two record low minima, 24F on April 3rd and 39F on Oct 7 (tied later by 1999) for a count of 1.50. The original count was 2.50, half of the difference explained by the later tie in 1999, and the other half being a tied record of 51F on Sept 13th later broken in 1963 (46F). Four October nights set high minimum records (count 3.00) with 72F on 1st (t1881) and 2nd, 68F on 3rd (t1969), and 67F on 12th. Readings of 66F the next two days fell to 1990 (69F, 68F). A low of 43F on Feb 16th was also one degree short of the 2002 record and 44F on Dec 28 was already beaten by 45F in 1881, was itself tied in 1982 then all these fell to 47F in 2008. The growing urban heat island has displaced a lot of record high minima to more recent years. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _71F __ Feb 16 ___ eventual record .. (1921 2nd (62F), 1976 3rd (60F), 2006 4th (59F), 2018 5th (58F), 1949,82,99 t-6th (57F)). _59F ___ Feb 19 __________ 1948,49 (59F) _ 1961 (63F) __ 1997 (66F) __ (2017 2nd (65F), 1961 3rd (63F), 1994 4th (61F), 1948,49,54.81 t5th (59F)). _96F ___ July 13 _____________ 1952 (96F) _ 1966 (101F) _ 1966 (101F) _ (1952,54,94 t2nd (96F), 1979,93 t5th (95F), 1916 6th (94F)). _100F __ July 14 ___ eventual record .. (1952, 1995 t2nd (96F), 1942,66,74 t4th (95F), 1983,97 t7th (94F)) _86F ___ Oct 12 ___ eventual record tied by 1928 .. (1962 3rd (85F), 1949 4th (83F), 1995 5th (81F), 1938,55,69 t6th (80F)). _87F ___ Oct 13 ___ eventual record .. (1995 2nd (86F), 1940, 61 t3rd (80F), 1928,30 t5th (78F), 1884,1989 t7th (77F)). _61F ___ Dec 28 ___ 1936, 49 (59F) _______ 1982 (65F) __1982,2008 (65F) __ (1954 3rd (61F), 2018 4th (60F), 1936,49,88 t-5th (59F), 1984 8th (56F)). _57F ___ Dec 29 ______________ 1905 (57F) _1982 (65F) __1984 (70F) __ (1982 2nd (65F), 1905,54,2018 t3rd (57F), 1948 6th (56F), 1901,40,96 t-7th (55F)). _______________________________________________________________________________ 1955 _ This was the last of the string of very warm years, on the higher level 1952-55, and on a more moderate level 1948-55 or even 1944-55 can be identified as a warm period which rivals the recent past in many ways. This year had a rather average winter season then saw occasional warm spells through the spring, culminating in one of the hottest summers on record (also warm in Britain). The autumn saw this warmth fading relative to normal and the last two months of the year were near average again. There were 12 twelve record highs with four ties for a count of 10.00. Of those, with later additional ties the surviving records (six) had a count of 4.83, a survival rate of 48.3%. Also, Feb 10th (57F) fell one short of the 1898 set record high. The average by which 1955 broke existing record values was 1.4 F deg. The average year to break six records was 1986, so if the other six were broken later this year or early next year, that average would become 2004. The six broken records have been overtaken by an average of 4.3 F deg which drops to 2.1 F counting the six surviving records. There were no surviving record low maxima. There was one record low minimum of 0 deg F (Feb 3rd), which was the only record set in 1955 for a survival rate of 100%, and despite all the summer heat, no surviving record high minima, with a reading of 78F on July 23rd already beaten (80F 1906, eventually broken by 83F in 2011), and 79F on Aug 2nd (already broken by 80F in 1933 eventually falling to 83F in 2006). Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _71F __ Mar 10 ___ 1879 (69F) _________ 2006 (74F) _ 2016 (79F) _ (2006 2nd (74F), 1955 3rd (71F), 1879,1977 t-4th (69F), 1878 6th (68F)). _67F __ Mar 11 ___ 1879 (66F) _________ 1967 (72F) _ 1977 (73F) _ (1967 2nd (72F), 2021 3rd (71F), 2016 4th (68F), 1955.86,90 t-5th (67F)). _84F ___ Apr 11 __ eventual record .. (2011 2nd (81F), 1922,2017 t-3rd (80F), 1887 5th (78F), 1987 6th (77F)). _90F ___ May 5 __ eventual record tied by 1949, 1980 .. 1930, 1934 t4th (89F), 1919 6th (88F), 1944 7th (87F), 2000 8th (86F). _98F ___ July 5 ___________ 1919 (98F) __ 1999 (101F) _1999 (101F) _ (2010 2nd (99F), 1919,55 t-3rd (98F), 1911 5th (97F), 1949,90,2012 t-6th (95F)). _100F __ July 22 __________ 1926 (100F)_ 1957 (101F) _ 2011 (104F) _ (1957 2nd (101F), 1926,55 t-3rd (100F), 1918 5th (98F), 1952,61 t-6th (97F)). _99F ___ July 23 ___ 1918,52 (95F) ______ 2011 (100F) _ 2011 (100F) __ (1955,91 t-2nd (99F), 2016 4th (96F), 1918,52,78 t5th (95F)). _100F___ Aug 2 __ eventual record .. (1917,33,75 t2nd (98F), 2002,06 t5th (97F) 1995 7th (96F), 1938,43,93,2005 t-8th (94F)). _97F ___ Aug 6 ____ eventual record tied by 1931 .. (1918 3rd (96F), 1900 4th (95F), 1906,24,30,89,2001 t5th (94F)). _97F ___ Aug 20 __ eventual record .. (1983 2nd (96F), 1937 3rd (95F), 1869, 1959 t-4th (93F)). _96F ___ Aug 21 __ eventual record .. (1869,1937,1995 t2nd (95F), 1899, 1942, 1959, 2005 t5th (93F)) _68F ___ Nov 14 ___ 1951 (67F) _________ 1973 (71F) __1993 (72F) __(1973,80 t2nd (71F), 1989 4th (70F), 2011 5th (69F), 1955 6th (68F), 1951,59,78 (67F)) _________________________________________________________________________________________ 1956 __ This year turned rather cold for much of the time, brief respites around May-June and October-November provided some opportunities for records but the closest call in November was 71F on 16th (72F 1928). Four records were set (random expectation 4.16, so the first year since 1940 to fall short of that), of which three remain intact (75% survival). These broke previous marks by an average of 3.0 F deg. The one broken record fell in 1998, so that if the other three fell later this year, the average extinction year for all four would become 2015. There were three record low maxima, with a count of 2.33 -- 37F Apr 8 tied 1916, 2003, 61F July 6th was lowest all-time for July, and 66F July 26th. From an original count of 3.33, surviving record low minima were set on May 17th (39F), and July 30th (57F), for a count of 2.00. There were four high minima that have survived; May 13th (69F), June 15th (76F tied with 1899, 1945), Nov 1st (65F), and Dec 6th (53F tied with 1951) -- count is 2.83. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _89F ___ May 13 __ eventual record .. (1930 2nd (87F), 1944,47,57,2004 t3rd (86F), 1970 7th (85F), 1900,06,85,91 t8th (84F). _99F ___ June 14 __ eventual record .. (1988 2nd (96F), 1892 3rd (94F), 1899,1945,1994 t-4th (92F) 1929,64,83,2005 t-7th (91F)). _84F ___ Oct 15 ___ eventual record .. (1897,1960,75 t-2nd (82F), 1965,85 t-5th (80F), 1915,63 t-7th (79F), 1899 9th (78F), 1947, 90, 2014 t-10th (77F)). _67F ___ Dec 7 ____ 1951 (64F) ________ 1998 (75F) __ 1998 (75F) __ (1956 2nd (67F), 1951 3rd (64F), 1932 4th (63F), 2011 5th (62F)). _____________________________________________________________ 1957 __ Although warmer than 1956 had been, records were fairly infrequent as several opportunities fell short: 85F April 21st was 2 deg below record set in 1923 and 95F June 16th was 2 deg below record set in 1891, 93F on June 18th 2 deg below record set in 1929, 95F Aug 3rd was one deg below ongoing tied 96F (1926,36,75). 91F on Sep 13th was three short of a 1952 record. And 59F was one short of the Dec 20th record from 1895. Only two records were set (count 2.00), with June 17th surviving (50% survival rate). The other record fell in 2011, so that if the June 17 record is broken this year, the average date of extinction of 1957 records would become 2016. The two 1957 records broke previous marks by just one degree each, and the eventual record breaker was three degrees above the July 22 value, with that average falling to 1.5 F deg counting the surviving record. The two records set represent (a) the lowest number so far although the next year had none, and (b) the lowest outcome relative to random expectation (4.1, 49%) since 1909 (39%). There were two record low maxima, 12F on Jan 15th and 51F on May 20th (tied in 2000) (count 1.50). 1957 had two record low minima (0 deg F on Jan 15th, 41F Sep 27th tied 1947) for a count of 1.50. No other records were set and later broken, so once again there is a survival rate of 100%. There were four record high minima, including June 17th (77F), June 18th (76F tied with 2014), and Dec 19th, 20th (45F tied 1949, 2017, and 54F). The count was therefore 2.83. Another high minimum of 48F on Feb 26th fell to 49F in 1976. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _96F ___ June 17 __ eventual record .. (1952 2nd (95F), 1892,1939,1945 t3rd (93F), 1891,1929 t6th (92F), 1944,62,2017 8th (91F)). _101F __ July 22 ___ 1926,55 (100F) ____ 2011 (104F) _ 2011 (104F) _ (1957 2nd (101F), 1926,55 t-3rd (100F), 1918 5th (98F), 1952,61 t-6th (97F)). ____________________________________________________________________ 1958 __ For the first time in the study, a year produced no record highs, the closest call was 89F on Sep 26th (1881 later tied by 1970 had hit 91F, also 90F in 1895). There were some slightly warmer than average months, including April and November, but warmth was limited. If 1958 had been a starter year, it would have set the following records: 53F Jan 22nd (tied 1891), 91F Aug 15 (1 higher than 1896), 84F Sep 15th (tied 1894), 88F Sep 16th (tied 1894), 83F Oct 10th (7 higher than 1887, would have been broken in 1939), 81F Oct 17th (4 higher than 1878), 62F Nov 14th (1 higher than 1879) so if 1958 had been a starter year, it would have had a rather low count even for that time, of only 5.5, fourth lowest among those years, and its extinction date would have been Oct 10, 1939, third behind 1909 and 1877. The other three years later to set no records (1992, 2004, 2014) all did better than 1958 vs starter years. A low maximum reading of 16F on Feb 17th was a record, but the 10F the previous day had been beaten by 7F set in 1896. Two more record low maxima occurred on June 20th (59F) and 21st (63F, tied by 2003). July 22nd (69F) was also a record (count 3.50). There were no record low minima set during 1958, the third such year after 1908 and 1948. At the time Oct 14th was within 1 deg of the record but that has changed to 2 deg with a lower reading in 1988. There were a number of days within 2 deg of a record low, and June 7th remains there (49F vs 47F in 1879) and by the end of the data, one of the more significant cold readings is now 3F on Feb 18th (record 0F in 1979). Also there were no record high minima, so 1958 was totally shut out of warm records. The closest it came in the high minima was on Nov 18th (54F vs record of 57F in 1928) and also fairly close again on Sep 26th (70F vs record of 74F in 1895). ____________________________________________________________ 1959 __ June 29th (97F) fell short of 1934's 101F record. A hot August failed to set any daily records (94F 15th and 28th, 93F 20th,21st). Although Sep 5th (90F) crept in to complete a four-way tie, another 93F on Sep 9th fell one short of the 1915 record. 90F on Sep 23rd was well short of 1895 (97F) but the next day's 89F held that record until 2017 (91F). The year was unfortunate to reach a total of only six record highs (count 4.75), of which two have survived (count 1.5). This was a survival rate of 31.6%. The average 1959 record improved on previous values by 1.5 F deg. The average year to break four 1959 records was 1987, which would become 1999 if the two surviving records were broken in the next eight months. The average by which these four were surpassed eventually was 4.0 F deg which reduces to 2.7 F counting the two surviving records. The year had two record low maxima, 61F on June 17th, and a one-third share of Nov 18th (33F tied with 1914, 1924) (count 1.33). There were no surviving record low minima, with the count during the year only 0.5 (46F tied 1950 on Sept 17th, falling later to 45F in 1986, also 43F May 16th remains within one degree of the 1878 record low) and there were seven record high maxima, with two ties giving a count of 6.00. These were mostly in the spring and summer months : May 12th (67F), May 21st (71F), May 22nd (72F), May 28th (73F), June 30th (79F tied with 1945), Sep 29th (72F tied with 2015) and Sep 30th (70F). There were many readings in the mid 70s not quite into record range in August and early September. Temp ___ date ___ replaces _ ties ______ broken ___ eventual end of data record max, recent max _61F ___ Jan 22 ___ eventual record tied by 1916 .. (1906 3rd (60F), 1986 4th (59F), 1973 5th (58F), 1957 6th (57F), 1967 7th (56F), 1932 8th (54F), _91F ___ May 20 __ 1939 (90F) __________ 1996 (91F) _ 1996 (96F) ___ (1959 2nd (91F), 1939,1962,1978 t3rd (90F), 1903 6th (89F)). _94F ___ May 28 ___ eventual record .. (1977,2016 t-2nd (92F), 1918 4th (91F), 1931,39,91 t5th (90F), 2012 8th (89F), 1899,1935 t-9 (88F)). _92F ___ June 10 __ 1906 (91F) __________ 1974 (95F) _ 2008 (96F) __ (1974,84 t-2nd (95F), 1959,64,2000 t-4th (92F), 1906,67,73 t-7th (91F)). _90F ___ Sep 5 _______ 1884,98,1944 (90F) _1961 (93F) __ 1985 (94F) __ (1961 2nd (93F), 1983 3rd (91F), 1884,98,1944,59,70,71 t-3rd (90F)). _89F ___ Sep 24 ___ 1920 (88F) ___________ 2017 (91F) __ 2017 (91F) __ (1959 2nd (89F), 1920 3rd (88F), 1961,70 t-4th (87F), 1922 6th (86F)). ____________________________________________________________ 1960 __ Only two records were broken or tied in 1960, with a count of 1.50. One has survived (Feb 11, 65F) tied later by 2009, for a count of 0.50 and a survival rate of 33.3%. Although March was very cold, most of the other months were fairly average with few days warm enough to threaten existing records. 87F on Apr 25th was four short of the 1915 record. The hottest days of the year (91F) marked a tie for second lowest annual maximum with 1884, 1889 and 2004. Only 1902 (90F) was cooler. The two records broke or tied existing marks at an average of 1.0 F deg, and the one broken record was eventually topped by 7 F (average 3.5 F for the two). That record was first broken in 1982, so that the average will be 2002 if the Feb 11th record falls in 2022. There were two record low maxima, a quarter share of July 14th (71F) and a reading of 20F on Dec 13th. Three dates in March 1960 came within one degree of adding to this list, the count is 1.25. Record low minima were set on March 11th (14F) and March 26th (20F). A third one was added on Dec 13th (8F). (count 3.0) A fourth record was set on Dec 12th (9F) but that was broken in 1988 (5F), for a survival rate of 75%. There were no record high minima in 1960. 1960_ _65F ___ Feb 11 ___ eventual record later tied by 2009 .. (1887 3rd (63F), 2018 4th (62F), 1966,81 t-5th (57F), 1925,55,2002 t7th (55F)), 1960 _64F ___ Dec 6 _________ 1912 (64F) _ 1982 (68F) __ 2001 (71F) __ (1982 2nd (68F), 1998 3rd (66F), 1912,60 t-4th (64F), 1951,53,94 6th (63F)). ______________________________________________________________________________
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