Roger Smith

Members
  • Content Count

    3,451
  • Joined

  • Last visited

2 Followers

About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    CONTEST ORGANIZER
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Provisional scoring for November 2020 -- based on the latest provisional estimates, these would be the scores for Nov 2020. * Tom's small late penalties are shown with asterisks per point lost, mostly 1 pt, one instance of 2 pts. -- no minimum progression invoked for low scoring locations as one raw score always above 60. -- a reminder, when actuals are > 5.0 anom, scoring differentials drop to 1 point so for ORD at +7.0 (est) scores for forecasts 0.0 to 2.0 get same number of points as forecast units of 0.1, then two points from 2.0 to 5.0, had any forecasts been 5.1 to 7.0 those would have lost scoring points at 1 per 0.1 also. (but none were). -- DEN will likely finish just slightly into the 5+ range, ATL and NYC could also do so. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTALS Roger Smith ____________100 _86 _ 80 __266 __ 74 _ 84 _ 80 __ 238 __ 504 __ 00 _ 10 _ 50 __ 060 _____ 564 BKViking _______________ 58 _ 46 _ 84 __ 188 __ 06 _ 42 _ 50 __ 098 __ 286 __ 39 _ 54 _ 92 __ 185 _____ 471 RJay ____________________50 _ 40 _ 80 __ 170 __ 20 _ 20 _ 20 __ 060 __ 230 __ 35 _ 60 _ 80 __ 175 _____ 405 Don Sutherland.1________30 _ 22 _ 60 __ 112 __ 13 _ 08 _ 34 __ 055 __ 167 __ 67 _ 90 _ 78 __ 235 _____ 402 wxallannj _______________ 50 _ 50 _ 74 __ 174 __ 14 _ 26 _ 28 __ 068 __ 242 __ 19 _ 40 _ 64 __ 123 _____ 365 hudsonvalley21 _________26 _ 20 _ 56 __ 102 __ 04 _ 14 _ 44 __ 062 __ 164 __ 27 _ 64 _ 94 __ 185 _____ 349 Consensus ______________36 _ 24 _ 60 __ 120 __ 10 _ 24 _ 38 __ 072 __ 192 __ 13 _ 42 _ 92 __ 147 _____ 339 RodneyS _______________ 24 _ 06 _ 52 __ 082 __ 32 _ 40 _ 38 __ 110 __ 192 __ 03 _ 40 _ 98 __ 141 _____ 333 Tom ____ (-2%) _________ 39*_ 24 _ 59*__122 __ 00 _ 31*_ 37*__068 __ 190 __ 05 _ 41*_88**_ 134 _____ 324 Scotty Lightning ________ 30 _ 10 _ 50 __ 090 __ 05 _ 20 _ 50 __ 075 __ 165 __ 00 _ 40 _ 80 __ 120 _____ 285 wxdude64 ______________18 _ 14 _ 58 __ 090 __ 02 _ 10 _ 36 __ 048 __ 138 __ 00 _ 36 _ 88 __ 124 _____ 262 Normal _________________10 _ 00 _ 40 __ 050 __ 00 _ 00 _ 20 __ 020 __ 070 __ 00 _ 20 _ 80 __ 100 _____ 170 _______________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT All but SEA have the warmest forecast in play, Seven are outright wins and one is a win-loss. DCA, NYC, ORD, ATL and IAH will be heading to Roger Smith for 5 wins, BOS will likely be a loss to BKViking's win. DEN and PHX are going to Don Sutherland with high forecasts there. SEA is looking like third or fourth highest forecasts for high score, not a qualifier. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Will post the annual update after these scores confirmed, but apparently the race has tightened up considerably -- almost everyone in the hunt gained a bit on the contest leader RodneyS. My previous total was too far back for this month to bring me into that mix (had the west worked out as well as the east, different story). But at least I am leaving Normal in my dust.
  2. Predict the temperature anomalies in deg F for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... and check last month if you haven't already entered the winter snowfall contest (closes with this deadline).
  3. That looks generally similar to winter 1975-76. I recall that one producing about two weeks of intense cold in the Great Lakes region (mid to late Jan) and record warmth by end of February. There was quite a long stretch of heavy mixed precip at the start of March (in southern/central ON at least, probably also in the Midwest U.S.). My thoughts for the winter are fairly similar by the way. I think it will be more about week to week variability than long-term trends, with the warming more pronounced towards end of February. Some part of January could be a brief east coast wintry spell but I can't see it dominating south of the lower Great Lakes. Great Lakes water temps must be well above average given the very warm November, similar to 1975. Then there was a spell of extremely heavy lake effect snow in Dec 1975 and Jan 1976, London ON had a state of emergency from huge snowdrifts created during this period. Good luck with this.
  4. One half-decent storm and two thirds of the field are eliminated. I'll take those odds. Otherwise would this be three bad winters in a row? Seems harsh.
  5. Iota now a hurricane and forecast to become a major soon, if so, the count will reach 30/13/6 (currently 30/13/5). For 30/13/6 these are the scores using the contest method and the beta method developed to give a more balanced comparison in this rather unusual season with its numerous weak tropical storms earlier inflating the count ratio. Updated scoring summary for 30/13/6 (30/13/5 in brackets) FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 820 _____ 11 (10) WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 921 _____ 02 (03) (all others drop below 00) ================================================================= A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below. This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared). The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ... Points for 30/13/6 FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 8 2 0 _____ 81 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 9 2 1 _____ 76.5 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 ____10 0 1 _____ 75.7 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 ____10 1 2 _____ 72.7 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 ____10 2 1 _____ 72.7 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 ____11 1 1 _____ 70.5 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 ____10 3 1 _____ 69.7 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _5 ____12 1 1 _____ 66 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _7 ___ 12 1 1 _____ 66 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 ____11 3 1 _____ 65.5 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __11.5, 2.7, 1.1 __ 63.8 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 ____11 4 1 _____ 61.5 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ 11 4 2 _____ 59.5 Newman _________________________18 _10 _4___ 12 3 2 _____ 59 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _6___ 13 3 0 _____ 57.2 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4___ 12 5 2 _____ 50 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5___ 13 4 1 _____ 52.2 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5____14 4 1 _____ 47 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5__14 5 1.5 ___ 41.3 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4____14 5 2 _____ 40 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 ___ 15 5 2 _____ 34.5 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3____15 5 3 _____ 31.5 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  6. True, I will update once Iota actually does the deal on hurricane and major. If this happens, I will be tied with several others for the least error stats (0,1 or 1,0) on hurricanes and majors, but the extra TS has sunk me out of any score at all in the contest scoring method (a), will maybe move up slightly in the order of beta scoring effort as will a couple of others.
  7. First look at anomalies and projections ... ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th ____ (anom 10d) ______ +4.0 _ +6.3 _ +4.5 __+12.9 _+4.5 _ +2.2 __ +10.5 _ +4.0 __ 0.0 21st ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.7 _ +3.8 _ +2.9 __ +7.9 _ +4.4 _ +3.5 ___ +7.9 _ +4.0 _ +0.7 11th ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 ___ +7.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 11th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 21st ____ (anom 30d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 __ 0.0 29th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 ___ +7.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0 ================================================ This month I plan to update only around the 20th and end of month anomalies. As of the 11th, the month had started out quite warm in the west and changed to colder than normal a few days ago. The record-breaking warmth then spread into the central and eastern states. Anomalies were largest in the Great Lakes region (STL not in our contest had an anomaly of +8). Projections are based on a much less pronounced warmer than average middle third and a slightly warmer final third for most regions. There will be anomalous cold at times in the upper Midwest, plains states and interior Pac NW, but it will be shallow and its intrusions further south will be moderated quickly. Next update 21st. ... Those who would still like to join the winter snowfall contest can post or edit up to then, with reminders going out to no-shows, then a table of forecasts will mark end of entries. 21st _ Looking quite mild across the southeast, Gulf coast, more variable further north to end of month. Some decrease likely in most of the current large positive anomalies. 29th _ Have edited in the new projections as of today. These include CFS to 28th and climate data for 29th, model projections for 30th. Provisional scoring will follow shortly.
  8. I have updated the two scoring tables for Theta's addition to the never-ending total (29/12/5 now). With Iota forming, count is 30/12/5 and could be 30/13/6 if it does become a major hurricane. Will update the scoring later in the life cycle of Iota but can say that anyone at 20 named storms now drops to zero in the contest scoring (a) version, the average change to the beta scoring is -3 or -4 with each new named storm although if you have hurricanes or majors left to "give" your score could stay level.
  9. My main disagreement would be early in the winter for interior western regions, I suspect it will turn out a lot colder than shown. That would only have the effect of shifting your depicted warm core a bit further east to the mid-Atlantic states possibly (with more of an up and down regime in the central plains states). Otherwise I could certainly see the scenario of a relatively mild winter getting milder towards February. This may be one of those winters like 2015-16 with a lot of mild weather but one great winter storm anyway (for the east).
  10. BWI _ too far north to miss ... 27.5" DCA _ too far east to miss ... 19.9" IAD _ too far west to miss ... 26.8" RIC _ too far south to miss ... 15.5" SBY _ too far southeast to snow (10.5" not my tiebreaker) LYH _ too far northwest to miss ... 30.1" (tiebreaker) conclusion _ not too shabby middle of the pack winter ahead.
  11. You are sitting on a perfect forecast of hurricanes and majors, which is no small accomplishment. If we had ended up 24/12/5 then your score in the conventional method would be 35/50 and the leaders would have had 45 and 43. About four or five of these 28 named storms were very short-lived and marginal (in my opinion), so really your forecast in the real world was quite good. In this slightly bizarro world, we are all left to fend for ourselves.
  12. Table of forecasts for Nov 2020 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ____________ +4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 BKViking _______________ +2.4 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 ___ +0.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.6 wxallannj _______________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 RJay ____________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 Tom ____ (-2%) __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ --0.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ___ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Consensus ______________+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 Don Sutherland.1________+1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.7 ___ +3.6 _ +3.5 _ +2.1 Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 _________+0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _+1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 RodneyS _______________ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 wxdude64 ______________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 ___ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.4 Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______________________________________________________________________ warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue ... Normal is colder for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and (tied) IAH. snowfall forecasts can be added to your post or submitted separately, up to mid-month, will signal a deadline.
  13. Updated scoring summary for 29/12/5 _ table has been updated in more recent post FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 20 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 13 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 04 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 04 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 02 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 01 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000_____ 00 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020_____ 00 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 1031 _____00 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 1030 _____00 (all others drop further below 00) ================================================================= A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below. This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared). The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ... FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 85 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 83 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 80 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 80 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 78 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 77 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000 _____ 76 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020 _____ 76 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __10.5, 1.7, 0.1 __ 75.0 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____1030 _____ 71 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 ____1120 _____ 70 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 ____1102 _____ 70 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____1031 _____ 70 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 ____1121 _____ 70 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 ____1221 _____ 64 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 ____ 1141 _____ 63 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 _____1230 _____62 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 _____1330 _____ 62 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 ___13 4 0.5 __ 54.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 _____1341 _____ 54 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 _____1441 _____ 47 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 _____1442 _____ 45 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Folks, give yourselves a pat on the back, as a group and in almost all cases, we came out ahead of the experts (I know, some of you are qualified experts). Given that the "real" count is maybe 24,12,5 with a bit of an atmosphere of find every possible marginal contender, I think the above scoring system is probably a better fit to the real differences between forecasts and the "reality" we now have (don't get me wrong, we would be into the Greek alphabet even with a very strict set of rules to eliminate the marginals, and that is still a very solid 2nd to 2005 which maybe could have had one or two more under similar counting procedures? ... matter of opinion to be certain).
  14. < < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Oct) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________708_ 742_ 790 __2240 __615 _614_698__1967 __4207 __720_669_672_ 2061 ____6268 hudsonvalley21 ____________601 _694 _761 __2056 __540 _616 _733 __1889 __3945 __557_702_659_ 1918 ____5863 Don Sutherland.1 ___________662 _736_742 __2140 __585 _640 _716 __1941 __4081 __458_668_640_ 1766 ____5847 RJay _______________________680 _711 _661 __2052 __573 _646 _683 __1902 __3954 __600_634_640_ 1874 ____5828 ___ Consensus _____________598 _664 _765 __2027 __512 _618_744 __1874 __3901 __558_699_660_ 1917 ____ 5818 BKViking __________________ 569 _643 _706 __1918 __544 _545 _697__1786 __3704 __581_712_712_ 2005 ____ 5709 wxallannj __________________616 _708 _743 __2067 __458 _615 _734__1807 __3874 __548_645_632_ 1825 ____5699 Tom _______________________ 592 _648 _724 __1964__478 _644 _697__1819 __3783 __553_685_609_ 1847 ____5630 Scotty Lightning ____________514 _522 _612 __1648 __450 _623_766__1839 __3487 __506_624_652_ 1782 ____ 5269 wxdude64 __________________509 _549 _612 __1670__450 _544 _724__1718 __3388 __ 528_655_540_ 1723 ____5111 Roger Smith ________________468 _521 _620 __1609__486 _619 _650__1755 __3364 __ 558_506_478_ 1542 ____4906 ___ Normal _________________408 _432 _528 __1368 __382 _565 _636__1583 __2951 __448_496_ 612_ 1556 ____4507 Brian5671 _ (8/10) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313 JakkelWx _ (7/10) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748 yoda _ (4/10) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098 rclab _ (1/10) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/10) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/10) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/10) _____________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 ___ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to October 68 of 90 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 45 for warmest and 23 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct __ Standings to date RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 _ ---- ___ 13-4 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 _ 2-0 __ 12-0 Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 11-2 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 11-3 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- _ 0-1 ___ 8-1 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 _ 2-0 ___ 6-1 Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 5-2 Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 4-0 yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 _ 2-0 ___ 4-1 RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 2-0 Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 ___ 2-1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to October Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than total of months best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. From Oct to Dec, high scores are always given among regular annual entrants when "occasional" entrants take high score awards. (* marks these) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS _________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep hudsonvalley21 ___________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1*___Oct* DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 2*____2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2*____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr RJay _____________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3*___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul ___ Consensus ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj _________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ______________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*_____0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxdude64 ________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug Brian5671 ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx _________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Yoda _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 ___ Oct RClab ____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 ____________________________________________________________________________________ * includes one win in this category among regular entrants only (Yoda had higher score). ... this rule only applies in fourth quarter of season. ... not retroactive.
  15. Will ask a moderator if those posts (above) perhaps should be moved to the more appropriate 2020 season discussion. Our count is now 28/12/5 (Eta has become a major now), and I suspect could change to 28/11/6 if Zeta is upgraded to major status before landfall (in the balance of time remaining this year, the contest will be scored from the official numbers at end of December). I will wait until Eta is done to change the scoring (edit, can now update as Eta has hit major). And I will work out a scoring system that will maintain the order at the top but give the lower scoring entries a chance to receive a fair scoring, the huge number of marginal storms this season has made the outcome somewhat disproportionate to effort, I think, and quite a few of the forecasts were actually quite good despite low scoring by the method in place. Perhaps a system that scores storm number by only error (not mean of error + error squared) and the already sanctioned method for hurricanes and majors will yield a result that will give us all a better picture, would get it to add up to 100 to make it more user-friendly.