Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. About the forest fire smoke situation -- 2017 was not that exceptional a year, we had a lot worse smoke in western Canada in 2018. Last year was fairly moderate and this year only became bad after mid-August. However, it has had a very noticeable effect on air mass temperature as it did in late August 2018. For several days where I am located, the uppers would have been good for 28-30 C each day but some days were as low as 20 to 23 C. As the smoke has thinned slightly yesterday and today we are back up to 24-25 C. But we're under a ridge with 570dm thickness. It should be 30 to 32 C here and 35 C in lower elevations of the inland Pac NW. The temperature anomaly is fairly widespread (meaning the temperature reduction due to smoke). I can see its signature into Alberta and Montana. The effects on subarctic temperatures could be significant too, if smoke layers advect north into the traditional source region for autumn arctic air outbreaks (NWT-w Nunavut). At those higher latitudes, solar angle becomes very low by late September and October, the influence of any particulates would be even more pronounced. On the other hand, pseudo-frontal boundaries created by these impacts could have ripple effects downstream, modelling that is not just a sketch on an envelope sort of proposition. It can also be noted that the weather in arctic Canada has not been unusually warm this past "summer" and August began the cooling cycle if anything a bit ahead of the recent average pace. This indicates prospects for a healthy arctic production of cold air masses through the autumn season. The trend in recent years has been for polar vortex positioning near Baffin Island and the Hudson strait region. When that expands to include large parts of Hudson Bay and Quebec, a cold regime can then extend well south of 40 deg latitude.
  2. Now at 20/8/2, would be 22/8/2 if two invests in Gulf, tropical Atlantic reach TS status (and not hurricane).
  3. Except for 2005, a lot of the more active tropical seasons have been followed by cold winters in eastern NA. 1933 was second most active before this year, and the winter of 1933-34 was epic although punctuated by a ho-hum January. 1995 was a very active year, and 1969 at least had a cold winter although rather dry following on. The most active season before 1900 was 1887, say no more. However, 1936 and 2005 were not rewarded and more recent active seasons are part of the larger shift away from cold winters. So I'll just say that the tropical activity is by no means a red card situation for the winter prospects. The large amounts of forest fire smoke being generated over the interior west could be a factor assisting early cold regimes that are available even if they won't be directly created by the smoke layers. Temperatures in some places have dropped considerably under the thick smoke despite no real change in air mass. Those are some minor factors compared to teleconnections that most people would consult. I don't see anything too well-defined from the standard parameters. So I had a look at some research index values for any hints. What I found was that this should be a cold and snowy winter (in the eastern U.S. generally) with any luck. I suspect it would be a stop and go type of winter where you have to be patient and take limited opportunities, but one of them might click to produce a good snowfall event. So mark me down as mildly optimistic.
  4. Contest trivia ... Smallest maximum error overall __ 1 F _ NWBaltimorewx had three plus one on the money to tie for the lead (3 error points) Most perfect forecasts _ 2 _ Rhino16 had IAD and RIC on the money, accumulated 3 error points and is also tied for the lead. ________________________ 2 _ Wxwatcher007 had DCA and RIC on the money, accumulated 3 error points and is also tied for the lead. ________________________ 2 _ CAPE had DCA and IAD correct, but accumulated 7 error points elsewhere, finished t-9th with ________________________ 1 _ Soundmdwatcher who had DCA correct and also 7 error points. ________________________ 1 _ Weather 53 had IAD on the mark, and was tied 4th with MN Transplant and Winston Salem Arlington who ____________________________ both had three errors of 1 degree , and one of 2 degrees. Closest to average of four __ (99.75) _ NWBaltimorewx had an average of 99.50, WxUSAF was second closest at 100.25, and co-leaders ______________________________________ Rhino16 and Wxwatcher007 tied for third at 99.00. It can be seen from the above that 3 error points tied for first, and 5 error points tied fourth, while 7 points tied 9th. The missing link is that 6 error points tied for 7th (two in that position were WxUSAF, and Eskimo Joe; also our consensus).
  5. Three are tied for the lead (3 error points) with almost zero possibility of higher temperatures to come. If the leaders wish, a tiebreaker could be highest temperature in October at the same four locations. I will score any predictions made but only current leaders could win the contest as a result of those. Deadline for the October tiebreakers would be October 1st 0600z. Here's mine just for the heck of it ... BWI 88 .. DCA 87 .. IAD 86 .. RIC 91 If enough people enter this, I'll declare it a free-standing separate contest as well as our tiebreaker. (Tiebreaker null and void if any actual seasonal max is altered now to 30th) Tiebreaker valid if one or more tied leaders enters. Will be pm'ing any who don't appear by 27th. Tiebreaker edits are of course permissible and no need to draw attention to them as no record will be kept until October 1st.
  6. Seasonal Max contest -- Preliminary results __ error points __ those shown in blue are too low, rest are too high or on the mark (for 0) ... Seasonal Max to date __ 99 __ 96 __ 95 __ 97 _ 96 _ 102 _101 _118 _ 98 FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ORD_ATL_IAH _DEN_PHX_SEA ____ Total RodneyS ________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 3 __ 0 __ 5 ______ 17 wxallannj _______________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 4 ______ 18 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 20 DonSutherland1 ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 0 __ 4 ______ 21 hudsonvalley21 _________2 ___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 0 __ 5 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 0 __ 3 ______ 23 BKViking _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 __ 5 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 0 __ 3 ______ 25 Tom ____________________3 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 5 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 30 Scotty Lightning ________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 4 ____ 1 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 32 Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___ 4 ___ 6 ____ 2 __ 7 __ 5 _____ 6 __ 2 __ 2 ______ 37 ======================================================================== (actual forecasts) Scotty Lightning ________ 102 __ 102 ___ 99 ___ 96 __ 103 __ 107 ___ 97 __ 117 __ 97 Roger Smith ____________ 102 __ 100 __ 101 ___99 __ 103 __ 107 __ 107 __ 120 __ 96 Tom ____________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___102 __ 102 __ 104 ___97 __ 119 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 97 __ 101 __ 105 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 95 BKViking _______________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 103 __ 101 __ 103 ___ 99 __ 118 __ 95 DonSutherland1 ________ 101 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 104 ___ 97 __ 118 __ 94 wxdude64 ______________ 100 ___ 99 ___ 99 ___ 98 __ 100 __ 105 __ 103 __ 117 __ 96 RodneyS _________________ 99 ___ 98 ___ 97 ___ 96 ___ 99 __ 103 ___ 98 __ 118 __ 93 wxallannj _________________97 ___ 96 ___ 95 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 ___ 98 __ 116 __ 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These results will be confirmed by end of September.
  7. (forecast was 21/11/5 compared to 22/11/6 from windspeed) ... bawk bawk bawk ... you are fine with the 11/5 part anyway, maybe 30/11/6? We are now at 20/7/1, could reach 20/7/3 if both Sally and Paulette reach major status, and 20/8/4 if Teddy does also. Some variations on that more likely, perhaps by the time Teddy goes major Wilfred will be along and the count may be 21/8/3 if only one of Sally or Paulette become cat-3. If the season then slows a bit compared to 2005 (I would expect maybe Nov 2020 won't keep up to Nov 2005) the final landing point might be 25/10/4 or something like that. If 25/10/4 verifies, then the best seasonal score will be Windspeed at 40/50 with WxWatcher007 at 38/50. Points as always are calculated as follows: For each of the three elements ... penalty points from original total of 50 are 1 for an error of 1, 3 for an error of 2 (average of 2+4), 6 for an error of 3 (average of 3+9), 10 for an error of 4 (average of 4+16), 15 for an error of 5 (average of 5+25), etc. So nobody with a forecast of 20 or fewer storms can beat 40 even if they have H and M perfect (assuming 25 storms). If the count goes much past 28, nobody will score points but I'll declare the winner to be whoever is least below zero. Looks like a two-person race now, although those of us with 20 named storms have faint hopes with the right set of future outcomes, not very likely ones given current model projections and the statistical likelihood of passing 22 named storms. If we finished at 21/10/4 NCForecaster89 (20/10/5 predicted) would have 48 points, but the only route to that finish is for Vicky to become a hurricane and Wilfred also, plus any three of Sally, Paulette, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred becoming majors. This is not entirely impossible. In fact 49 points is theoretically possible at 21/10/5 (four of five become majors). At 21/9/5 (Vicky not a hurricane) it would be 48 points. If the current season froze with maximum hurricane development of all candidates, the final count would be 20/9/5. Vicky seems unlikely to become a hurricane at all, so 20/8/4 is realistically the highest we can reach from current levels (unless Rene unpredictably comes back to life). Orangeburgwx at 20/11/5 is unable to pass NCForecaster89 mathematically since there is no chance of reaching 21/11 from 20/7 without a re-do on a previous storm, only 21/10 is possible now with two current storms yet to reach hurricane status. A 22/10/3 finish would leave NCForecaster89 at 46 points, Orangeburgwx at 45, and windspeed at 43 with wxwatcher007 also at 45. So NCForecaster89 needs a slowdown of the season but with some vigor in the hurricane production. Beyond 23 named storms, the storm-20s fall out of contention rather quickly, by 24 the error component of named storms is 10 points which is hard to overcome given that more storms probably means more canes. The other two at 20 (Nutley Blizzard and myself) have little mathematical chance either, although I would come within a point or two around 30/13/7. The way this season is going, 30/13/7 sounds difficult, 30/11/3 perhaps.
  8. Yes I did realize that Alpha was named Oct 22, 2005, in fact it says that in my post. ... My points were (a) the post-season naming of the Azores STS in 2005 jogs the comparative name - date paradigm so that Alpha 2020 will be comparable to Wilma 2005 as the 22nd named storm. Wilfred will be comparable to Vince as the 21st named storm. These points are already recognized in the evolving wikipedia list of earliest storm development as Teddy was shown vs Azores while Vicky was shown vs Tammy 2005. and (b) I don't see a lot of candidates on model output past what we have now so perhaps Wilfred will take his time appearing then Alpha 2020 could be well into October. I am pretty certain we'll see Alpha, Beta and Gamma in 2020, not so sure about Delta, Epsilon and Zeta because 2005 was able to keep producing well into November and that may not necessarily be the case this year. The tipoff may be that while we're on a faster pace, the average intensity is lower. This is sort of a mini-me version of 2005 at the present time. It could still gain in the overall intensity department but so far it's all about numbers and not so much about ACE values being out of the ordinary. Worth noting that 2020 is now tied with 2nd place 1933 for total number of nameable storms (some will say named storms but then they didn't name them in 1933).
  9. Meteociel I should mention to the AmWx membership in general is a terrific source of weather info especially for Europe. They also have a forum. same general idea. MrFreeze6298, also look into UK forum Net-weather and the weather forum on (in Ireland). You'll probably find them interesting also. I am on both, same name as here on net-weather, and "M.T. Cranium" on weather forum. There are several members of Net-weather who are residents of France although I think in most cases they are British ex-pats. I was in France several times many many years ago (sadly) and never once saw a drop of rain, just lucky I guess. Besides Paris I have been in the northeast, Loire valley, Bordeaux-Bergerac region and the Med coast from Spanish border after visiting Barcelona to Marseilles then Lyon to Paris, but not the Riviera or the Alps. This was back around 1972 and 1974 when I was free to travel. Loved it but found that you didn't want to drive in most parts of France with a "75" registration (Paris). One thing I recall is that people drove with only parking lights on at night, is that still true? I found it quite dangerous being used to full headlights.
  10. This would be Teddy unless that other invest makes it to TS faster, in which case Vicky. After that comes Wilfred, and on to the Greek alphabet. Sally was 20 days earlier than Stan (2005), the former earliest 18th storm on record. In 2005, after the season ended, an un-named storm was inserted between Stan and Tammy in the list, namely the "Azores Subtropical Storm." That was born Oct 4 and Tammy on Oct 5. So Teddy (whichever wave becomes himself) will have to be compared to the Azores STS for record timing, and Vicky to Tammy, Wilfred to Vince (formed Oct 8, 2005), then Alpha if we get that far to Wilma (reached TS status Oct 17, 2005), which could set up the confusing situation that this year's Alpha will be not the earliest 22nd named storm but the earliest Greek letter storm (if it were to form between the dates of Wilma, now bumped to 22nd, and Alpha (23rd named storm) in 2005 which formed Oct 22nd). An Alpha forming Oct 18 to Oct 21 would create that dichotomy. This year's Beta will need to form ahead of 2005 Alpha before Oct 22nd to become earliest 23rd named storm. The other benchmarks for formation are ... this year's Gamma will need to be ahead of Oct 27 2005 Beta for 24th named storm, this year's Delta will be compared with Nov 14 2005 Gamma for 25th named storm, this year's Epsilon with Nov 22 2005 Delta for 26th named storm, this year's Zeta with Nov 29 2005 Epsilon for 27th named storm, and this year's Epsilon with Dec 30 2005 Zeta for 28th. If we get to Eta this year (28th named), we will tie 2005 for total named storms. The Greek alphabet then goes Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda ... and some more but I think that has to be about the limit. Otherwise it might be famous Accuweather forecasters for Tropical Storm Abrams, Hurricane (of course) Bastardi and so on and so forth. But there are 13 more Greek letters after lambda, I think Hurricane Omicron would be worth moving up to get it in there. (Oh my God, it's Omicron) ... Hurricane Omega -- you don't want that hitting your town. There could be a Mu and a Nu on the go at the same time -- ultra confusing. Whether the media or other parties pick up on this or not remains to be seen (I would expect the NWS to issue corrective reports if the date comparisons fail to take the 2005 change into account). My guess is that we will reach the Greek alphabet stage but we might not go six letters in as they did in 2005, with all the very late activity in mid Nov and even Dec 2005 adding four more then. More Greek trivia, only Beta and Epsilon (2 and 5) were hurricanes in 2005, so there is still room for the first Hurricane(s) Alpha, Gamma, Delta, Zeta and all the rest.
  11. So for DEN the actual result (at KDEN) was a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, they're only saying 1.0" on 8th out of 0.72" precip, and today's prelim report is .02" precip with light snow mentioned (but they don't give an amount until end of day). Even if that 0.02" is something like 0.2 to 1.0 more, the total snow was sparse at the location, probably did increase steadily across the DEN metro to reach mostly snow in the mix at higher elevations. Temperature anomalies on 8th (-30) and 9th (-29) have yanked the monthly anomaly down from +6 after 7d to -2 after 9d. This will continue for a day or two then DEN will see what I'm already seeing here, a return to the heat (highs here from Sunday to Wednesday have been 92, 65, 68, 84). Here we had a minimum of 33F on Tuesday morning (DEN had 31F). The anomalous cold was also quite exceptional in Utah. SLC on 8th had 55/43 for a -21 anomaly. Vernal in northeast UT had 41/31, not sure what anomaly that gives but assuming their normal mean is 2 lower than SLC, it would be around -32. Moab (Canyonlands) also failed to break 50. It has warmed up slightly today in Utah. At one point Bryce Canyon had a wind chill in the 20s (F). Normally it would be close to 80 F there at this time of year. I was there in 2016 and it was around 90 degrees on the first of September. Even more bizarre, I think Las Vegas had a midnight high and the entire night was warmer than most of the day. At this time of year, that rarely if ever happens in the desert southwest.
  12. __ First report on this month's anomalies, trends, and updated seasonal maxima. __ _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH _____ DEN_PHX_SEA _9th ___ (8d) ____________+2.1_+2.6_+1.7 __+2.7_+2.5_+3.9 ____ +1.2_+4.8 _+6.2 _17th __ (16d) __________ +0.7_+0.9_+0.2 __+1.7_+2.7_+3.9 ____ --2.0_+0.9 _+4.5 _9th __ (p15d) ___________+2.5_+2.5_+1.5 __+1.0_+1.5_+2.0 ____--2.5_+1.5 _+5.0 _17th __ (p23d) __________+0.2_+0.3_--0.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+3.0 _____ 0.0_+1.5 _+3.5 _9th __ (p25d) ___________+3.0_+3.5_+2.5 __+2.0_+2.0_+2.0 ____ +0.5_+1.5 _+3.0 _9th __ (p30d) ___________+2.5_+3.0_+2.0 __+2.5_+2.5_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5 _17th __ (p30d) __________+0.5_+0.5__0.0 __+2.5_+2.0_+2.5 ____ +1.0_+2.0 _+2.5 Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 98 Notes: 9th _ DEN plunged from heat wave (seasonal max increased to 101 5th) to mixed rain/snow on 8th, 1.0" reported on 8th along with 0.72" precip. A small additional amount reported today. Anomaly for the day of -30 on 8th (-29 on 9th) was not quite enough to reverse the sign (the anomaly was about +6 after seven days) but now sitting around -3 after nine days. Other locations have had a less adventurous and mostly warmish start to the month. I experienced all but the mixed rain and snow here, temperature fell from 92 F on 6th to morning low of 33 F on 8th, now back up near 90 F. Bizarre to say the least, plus forest fire smoke advecting in from WA state (otherwise border remains closed). ... Following week looks similar to past 2-3 days in most areas, DEN will gradually flip back to warmth but will retain a negative anomaly likely to at least 20th. Longer term, warmish for most regions, cooling off in Pac NW compared to first half (close to normal), GFS 18z shows major hurricane near east coast US at end of run. (this not a factor in the temperature forecast but implies potential for late month cooler interval to follow its passage) Just for comparative purposes later, I extended the usual 16-day projection to end of month to see how much that changes by near end of September, based on assumption of persistence of pattern at end of run. RJay will be hoping I'm right (meaning GFS is right) while I will be hoping for a big error. Will score the seasonal max forecasts made back in May soon, I would think we're pretty much done increasing although ATL could add a degree or two I suppose. 17th _ Was a day late getting to the update, in any case, things have cooled back towards zero anomalies in the east and recovered at DEN to almost normal again. The rest of the month looks fairly bland in the east, warm in the west although not overly so for SEA. End of month projections can be regarded as rather approximate. When I feel more confident about them, I will post some provisional scoring. Looks like a mixed bag of scores at the moment, but too early to be very certain about trends.
  13. Hey raindancewx, 60 mph east wind gusts at KABQ -- that's stronger than almost anywhere else in this storm so far. Las Vegas had a gust to 50 mph at 0700h and I looked on their TV news sites, plenty of minor wind damage and four foot waves on Lake Mead (what's left of it). Looks to me like the cold northeast turning north to northwest outflow is petering out now as the dynamics weaken slowly, will be slowly back to ridge building over the far west from now on. Visible satellite imagery earlier showing massive smoke outflows in northeast CA towards northern central valley. Expect to hear some fire news later but not sure whether any other parts of the central valley experienced strong outflow winds, they did reach 29Palms earlier (in the Mojave). The humid wedge that was over the south-central interior of CA was gently nudged back to where it originated, the Sea of Cortez. Looks like the heat trough is bruised but still standing. Most of Utah is very chilly, Vernal is barely above freezing and they are not high up at all. I'm sure if they got even a trace of snow it would earliest on record (unless the dinosaurs were keeping records maybe).
  14. Welcome, the word presentation I think should be introduction -- a presentation is when you put on a show. This is the place you wanted, no doubt about that. Most of the real action here is in the regional sub-forums. Given your interests, I would recommend the Great Lakes / Ohio valley forum and in the winter, the various east coast forums. J'aime egalement le forum ""