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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Burnaby, BC, Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. Four Seasons contest update (spring 2017) Forgot to update this sub-contest after May results. This shows the points awarded for March-April-May totals and combines with winter 2016-17 as reported in February. Only scores from those who entered two of three spring months are shown in this table. Scores marked * are for two of three months only. These would probably have gained some points in this contest at the rate of scoring, had they played all three months. SPRING 2017 Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts 1 _ _ RodneyS ___1015 ___10 ______1 _ _ H2OTown_Wx _651 __10 ____ 1 _ _ RodneyS __ 1598 _ 10 2 _ _ DonS _____ 1000 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ RJay ________ 603 ___ 7 ____ 2 _ _ DonS _____ 1554 __ 7 3 _ _ Damage in T_956 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ wxallannj ____ 598 ___ 6 ____ 3 _ _H2OTown_Wx 1537_ 6 4 _ _ Tom _______930 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Roger Smith___ 592 ___ 5 ____ 4 _ _ Dmillz25 __ 1505 __ 5 5 _ _ blazess556 __920 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ Dmillz25______ 591 ___ 4 ____ 5 _ _ Tom _____ 1490 __ 4 6 _ _ Dmillz25 ____914 ___ 3 ______ 6 _ _ RodneyS _____ 583 ___ 3 ____ 6 _ _ wxallannj__ 1480 __ 3 7 _ _ wxdude64 __ 896 ___ 2 ______ 7_ _ SD ___________561 ___ 2 ____ 7 _ _ Damage in T 1469 __ 2 8 _ _ BKViking ___ 893 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Tom _________ 560 ___ 1 ____ 8 _ _ BKViking ___1418 __ 1 9 _ _ H2OTown_Wx 886 __ 1 ______ 9 _ _ DonSutherland _554 ___ 1 ____ 9 _ _ SD ________1414 __ 1 10 _ _ wxallannj ___ 882 __ 1 ______10 _ _ BKViking ______525 ___ 1 ___10 _ _RJay ______ 1411 __ 1 11 _ _ SD ________ 853 __ -- ______11 _ _ Damage in T __ 513 ___ -- ___ 11 _ _wxdude64 __1365 __ -- 12 _ _ Stebo ______ 834 __ -- ______12 _ _ hudsonvalley21_472 ___ --___ 12 _ _blazess556 _ 1328 __ -- 13 _ _ RJay _______ 808 __ -- ______13 _ _ wxdude64 ____ 469 ___ -- ___13 _ _hudsonv 21 _ 1269 __ -- 14 _ _ hudsonv21__ 797 __ -- ______ 14 _ _so_whats_happ*_448___ -- ___14 _ _Stebo _____ 1255 __ -- 15 _ _ neckbeard*_ 728 __ -- ______ 15 _ _ neckbeard93* __423 ___ -- ___15 _ _Roger Smith _1246 __ -- 16 _ _ Roger Smith 654 __ -- ______ 16_ _ Stebo _________421 ___ -- ___16 _ _neckbeard*__1171 __ -- 17 _ _ sowhatshap*_426 __ -- _____ 17 _ _ blazess556 _____408 ___ -- ___17 _ _sowhatshap*_ 874 __ -- 6 _ _ Consensus__ 915 __ 3 _______ 6 _ _ Consensus______589 ___ 3_____ 5 _ _Consensus__ 1504 __ 4 11t_ _ Normal ____ 853 __ -- ______10 _ _ Normal ________ 534 ___ 1____ 11 _ _Normal ____1387 __ -- WINTER 2016-2017 Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts 1 _ _ RJay _______ 885 ___ 10 ______1 _ _ RJay ______ 674 ___ 10 _____ 1 _ _ RJay _______ 1559 _ 10 2 _ _ Blazess556 __ 796 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ DonSutherland_634__ 7 ______2 _ _ Blazess556 ___1413 __ 7 3 _ _ DonSutherland 752 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ dmillz25 ___ 628___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ DonSutherland 1386 __ 6 4 _ _Maxim _______740 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Blazess556 _ 617___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Maxim ______ 1294 __ 5 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 701 ___ 4 ______ t5 _ _Stebo _____ 614 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 1276 __ 4 6 _ _Stebo _______ 609 ___ 3 ______ t5 _ _Tom _______610 ___ 4 ______ 6 _ _dmillz25 ____ 1224 __ 3 7 _ _ Damage in T_ 605 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ BKViking ____575 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ Stebo ______1223 __ 2 8 _ _ dmillz25 ____ 601 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 574 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 1179 __ 1 9 _ _ wxallannj ____595 ___ 1 ______ 9 _ _ wxdude64 __ 560 ____ 1 _____t9 _ _ hudsonvalley _1124 __ 1 10 _ _ hudsonvalley_ 569 ___ 1 _____t10 _ _hudsonvalley_555 ____ 1 _____t9_ _ wxdude64 ___ 1124 __ 1 11 _ _ wxdude64___ 564 ___ - _____t10 _ _H2OTown_wx_555 ____1 _____11_ _ wxallannj ____ 1098 __ - 12 _ _ H2OTown_wx_511 ___ - ______12 _ _Maxim _____ 554 ____ - _____12_ _ H2OTown_wx_1066 __ - 13 _ _ so_whats_hap_499 ___ - _____ 13 _ _Roger Smith_ 508____ - _____ 13_ _ Tom ________1037 __ - 14 _ _ RodneyS ____ 491 ___ - ______14 _ _RodneyS ____506____ - _____14_ _ so_whats_hap_1003 __ - 15 _ _ SD ________ 459 ___ - ______15 _ _so_whats_hap 504____ - _____15_ _ RodneyS _____ 997 __ - 16 _ _ Prestige WW _452* ___ - ______16 _ _wxallannj __ 503_____- _____16_ _ SD __________ 935 __ - 17 _ _ Tom _______ 427 ____ - ______17 _ _SD ________476 ____ - _____17_ _ Roger Smith ___865 __ - 18 _ _ Roger Smith _ 357 ___ - ______18 _ _Prestige WW_363*____ - _____18_ _ Prestige WW__ 815* _ - 7_ _ Consensus __ 608 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _Consensus __ 583 ____ 2 _____ 8_ _ Consensus ___ 1191 __ 1 19 _ _ Normal_____ 324 ___ - ______18 _ _Normal _____446 ____ - _____19_ _ Normal ______ 770 __ - * Prestige Worldwide missed Dec 2016, ranked 2nd, 13th and 3rd for Jan-Feb TOTAL POINTS (winter + spring) Original Six ___________________ Western ________________________ All Nine DonSutherland1 ___ 13 _________ RJay ___________ 17 _____________ DonSutherland1 ____ 13 Blazess556 _______ 11 _________ H2OTown__Wx___ 11 _____________ RJay ______________11 RodneyS _________ 10 _________ Dmillz25 ________ 10 _____________ RodneyS ___________10 RJay ____________ 10 __________DonSutherland1 ___8 _____________ DMillz25 ____________8 Damage in Tolland __8 __________wxallannj ________ 6 _____________ Blazess556 __________ 7 Tom _____________ 5 __________ Roger Smith _____ 5 _____________ H2OTown__ Wx ______ 6 BKViking __________ 5 __________blazess556 ______ 5 _____________ Maxim ______________ 5 Maxim ____________ 5 __________Tom __________ 5 ______________ BKViking ____________ 5 Dmillz25 __________ 4 __________ Stebo __________ 4 _____________ Tom ________________ 4 Stebo _____________3 __________ RodneyS _______ 3 _____________ Damage in Tolland _____ 3 wxdude64 _________ 2 __________ BKViking _______ 3 _____________ wxallannj ____________ 3 wxallannj __________2 __________ SD ____________ 2 _____________ Stebo _______________ 2 H2OTown_Wx ______1 __________ Damage in Tol ___ 1 _____________ hudsonvalley21 _______ 1 hudsonvalley21 _____ 1 _________ hudsonvalley21 ___ 1 _____________ wxdude64 ___________ 1 _____________________________ wxdude64 ________1 _____________ SD _________________ 1 Consensus _________ 5 _________ Consensus _______ 5 _____________ Consensus ___________ 5 Normal ____________ 0 _________ Normal _________ 1 ______________ Normal _____________ 0
  2. I tried for the 1984 total eclipse in northern NC (something like late May, can't remember now) and got mega-clouded-out, pre-internet so not much chance of fine tuning but it was deadly overcast and raining everywhere along the track -- so that was interesting too, it gets extremely dark under cloud cover for two or three minutes. Anyway, saw the Blue Ridge parkway on that trip so not a total bust. (hoping to go 2 for 3 on this one)
  3. Will be there, night of August 19th probably in Utah finishing up a few days of holidays, make a decision where to see it, find a remote campsite within 2-3 hours of track Sunday 20th, and hit the best view weather forecasting can provide (Monday August 21) at 10:22 a.m. PDT around Baker City OR or 11:32 MDT Rexburg ID (times approx). Other locations being considered range from Madras OR to Casper WY. Would avoid the Oregon coast even if skies clear, traffic congestion around Lincoln City OR is always a problem and with half of Portland there to see this, a no go zone. Would also not be leaving a location to the last minute near I-5 (Albany OR) as it could get very congested along the interstate. Best bet for clear skies by climatology is the OR-ID border near Huntingdon OR (last exit in Oregon from I-84, 70 miles northwest Boise which is just outside the path, 70% chance). The good thing about a morning eclipse is, afternoon convection over the inland western valleys and ranges not yet underway and if a bit of that has started, the cooling effect of the eclipse will suppress it further. In Nebraska by the way, Grand Island is near the center line (2 min 30 sec totality) and that's right at 1:00 p.m. CDT. Casper WY is around 11:45 MDT and it's also right on the line. Nebraska chasers are probably going to be dealing with a frontal system somewhere in that state, would not be too fixed on one location and time (it moves very fast, takes about 15 minutes to cross each state). Definitely check the latest guidance morning of, and avoid obvious frontal cloud zones. Saw a total eclipse in Virginia Beach in March 1970, awesome display, the diamond ring effect is stunning (at both ends of totality). Also quite awe-inspiring is the rapid descent into darkness and natural signs on display such as birds calling. Don't miss this one if you have a chance (but don't take my campsite). Motels in the totality path and nearby are already fully booked and charging astronomical rates. Not sure how far outside the zone this now applies, a month ago the rates were holding near regular prices at 100 miles outside the zone (not a bad option given the late morning to afternoon timing). You need a plan where you camp outside the zone or cheap motel well outside the zone, and drive in to make it feasible. Helps if you live in that nearby stretch, I suppose worst case scenario would be to pull an all-nighter (from almost anywhere in the U.S.A.) and just be there, you'll get your sleep in a rest stop and then figure out the details of getting home again.
  4. Extreme Forecast Update for June 2017 DCA and NYC appear likely to fall well inside our range of forecasts and will not qualify. BOS would need to finish +1.7 or higher, currently projected at +1.5 so just outside the zone. ORD likely to give CCM a win at +3.5. ATL oddly will qualify if it finishes +0.1 or cooler, our lowest forecast was 0.0 from RJay and Normal. The current projection is --0.5. IAH is also within range if it finishes at 0.0 as projected, that is second lowest forecast from RJay (DonS at -0.2). DEN has been near the extreme high forecast from me (+4.0) but appears headed lower to finish out of qualifying range. PHX will probably give Damage in Tolland a win (he has +3.0) as the current value of +3.5 seems to be holding to the end. SEA will need to finish +2.0 or higher, then it's a tussle between Damage (+2.0) and wxallannj (+2.8). Currently looks to be finishing a bit too low around +1.5 but will be at +2.0 on Monday so if forecasts are a bit too cool then this could join.
  5. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-June) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 22 for provisional June scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Janiary-June are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Best scores for June will be added when confirmed as they all seem subject to change, except for ORD and PHX which seem unlikely to change. Those are marked by asterisks. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores 1 DonSutherland.1 _____291 _296 _266 __853___302 _362 _391_1061__1914 _001.111..1.2_ Jan, May 2 blazess556 _________ 301 _301 _328__930___322 _307 _299__928___1858 __001.000 3 RJay _______________250 _319_294 __863 ___243 _354 _383__980 ___1843__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr 4 BKViking ____________252 _268 _296__816 ___261 _339 _274 __874 ___1690 __000.001 t5 dmillz25 ____________264 _249 _266 __779 ___262 _290 _314 __866 ___1645 __100.101 t5 wxallannj ___________ 263 _250 _298 __811 ___175 _321 _338 __834 ___1645 __001.011 (June*) 7 Consensus __________234 _256 _241 __731 ___242 _325 _335 __902 ___1633 7 H2Otown_WX _______265 _268 _284 __817 ___192 _269 _283 __744 ___1561 __110.001..1.0 8 hudsonvalley21______ 225 _235 _226 __686 ___244 _328 _285 __857 ___1543 __000.010 9 Stebo ______________244 _247 _216 __707 ___197 _334 _288 __819 ___1526 __000.001 10 Tom ______________ 255 _249 _227 __731 ___202 _280 _297 __779 ___1510 __000.100 11 RodneyS ___________216 _212 _170 __598 ___233 _289 _389 __911 ___1509 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 12 SD ________________254 _257 _233 __744 ___244 _263 _254 __761 ___1505 13 Damage in Tolland ___195 _217 _192 __604 ___260 _297 _294 __851 ___1455 __000.010..0.0 14 wxdude64 _________ 267 _216 _221 __704 ___202 _271 _260 __733 ___1437 __110.000..1.0 15 Normal ____________ 258 _245 _224 __727 ___209 _202 _244 __ 655 ___1382 __010.000.0.0 __ May 15 Roger Smith ________ 156 _179 _104 __439 ___130 _244 _295 __669 ___1108 16 Neckbeard93*_______ 102 _142 _107 __351 ___244 _242 _266 __752 ___1103 17 so_whats_happening#_197 _155 _172 __524 ___138 _224 _209 __571 ___1095 18 CCM % _____________134 _104 _150 __388 ___146 _138 _132 __416 ___ 804 __000.1*00 19 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 20 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ____50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001 ________________________________________________________________________________ Provisional annual scoring for western and all nine contests January-June 2017 FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 338 _414 _503___1255 __ 1 0 1 _ Jan _____3098 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR 2 Roger Smith _________313 _389 _542 ___1244 __ 0 0 1_ Feb _____ 2352 (= 15) 3 Consensus ___________347 _405 _470 ___1222 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2855 ( = 5) 3 wxallannj ___________ 338 _439 _440 ___1217 __ 0 1 1 __________2862 ( = 5) 4 H20TownWx _________367 _358 _451 ___ 1176 __ 0 0 1 _________ 2737 ( = 7) t5 dmillz25 ____________ 340 _355 _464 ___ 1159 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____2804 ( = 4) t5 BKViking ____________287 _378 _494 ___ 1159 _________________ 2849 ( = 6) 7 RodneyS ____________340 _431 _380 ___ 1151 __ 0 1 0 __________ 2660 ( = 8) ___ MAR 8 Damage in Tolland ____ 280 _412 _457 ___1149 __ 0 1*1 _________ 2604 ( =10) 9 DonSutherland.1 ______ 373 _399 _376 ___1148 __ 2 0 0 _________ 3062 ( = 2) ___JAN, MAY 10 Tom _______________ 259 _407 _468 ___ 1134 _________________2644 ( = 9) 11 SD_________________ 322 _367 _384 ___ 1073 ________________ 2578 ( = 13) 12 Stebo ______________ 311 _346 _408 ___ 1065 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2591 ( = 11) 13 so_whats_happening#_221_297 _290 ____1064 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _2159 ( = 16) 14 wxdude64 ___________299 _348 _416 ___ 1063_________________ 2500 ( = 14) 15 blazess556 __________332 _359 _370 ____1061 ________ June* ___ 2919 ( = 3) 16 hudsonvalley21 ______ 281 _352 _404 ___ 1037 _________________2580 ( = 12) 17 Normal _____________ 282 _302 _392 ___ 976 _________________ 2358 ( = 16) 17 Neckbeard93* _______381 _ 247 _135 ___ 763 __ 2 0 0 __________ 1866 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 1176 ( =t18) 19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 __________________ 1055 (= 20) 20 CCM % _____________ 106 _100 _166 ___ 372 __________________ 1176 (=t18) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr) @ two months played (Jan, Feb) % two months played (May, June) Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). April late penalty deductions: ... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). May late penalty deductions: ... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12). June late penalty deductions: ... Stebo lost 42 (26,16). __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.
  6. The annual race in the original six portion (to be updated in June thread, I have the provisional scores ready) continues to be a three-person race among DonSutherland1, blazess556 and RJay with the chase pack keeping fairly close behind -- the June scoring did not move many from one position to another. Time for the July forecast contest, I hope to alert everyone before the long, long four-day weekend as the penalties will be horrendous by the 5th (I will be sending private messages to anyone who hasn't posted by Friday noon to see if we can avoid that). For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations: DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Entries are due by 06z Saturday, 1st of July (in other words, Saturday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z July 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th. Good luck to all !!
  7. Provisional scoring for June 2017 Scores are based on provisional end of month anomalies posted above, and will be adjusted when these change. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ____ TOTAL wxallannj ________________ 96 _ 80 _ 96 ____ 272 ____ 60 _ 66 _ 76 ____ 202 _____ 474 so_whats_happening _______98 _ 78 _ 92 ____ 268 ____ 76 _ 54 _ 56 ____ 186 _____ 454 H2OTown__Wx ___________ 90 _ 86 _ 98 ____ 274 ____ 74 _ 30 _ 84 ____ 188 _____ 462 BKViking _________________82 _ 82 _ 96 ____ 260 ____ 60 _ 74 _ 62 ____ 196 _____ 456 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 70 _ 96 _ 76 ____ 242 ____ 50 _ 80 _ 74 ____ 204 _____ 446 CCM ____________________70 _ 50 _ 88 ____ 208 ____100 _ 54 _ 84 ____ 238 _____ 446 blazess556 _______________ 94 _ 74 _ 94 ____ 262 ____ 72 _ 56 _ 52 ____ 180 _____ 442 DonSutherland.1 __________ 66 _ 96 _ 72 ____ 234 ____ 22 _ 88 _ 96 ____ 206 _____ 440 RJay ____________________ 60 _ 90 _ 70 ____ 220 ____ 30 _ 90 _100____ 220 _____ 440 Normal __________________ 60 _ 90 _ 70 ____ 220 ____ 30 _ 90 _100____ 220 _____ 440 dmillz25 _________________100 _ 80 _ 94 ____ 274 ____ 60 _ 40 _ 60 ____ 160 _____ 434 SD ______________________80 _100 _ 70 ____ 250 ____ 40 _ 70 _ 70 ____ 180 _____ 430 Tom ____________________ 72 _ 98 _ 74 ____ 244 ____ 40 _ 60 _ 84 ____ 184 _____ 428 Consensus _______________76 _100 _ 74 ____ 250 ____ 46 _ 60 _ 72 ____ 178 _____ 428 Stebo ___________________ 90 _100 _ 60 ____ 250 ____ 50 _ 60 _ 60 ____ 170 _ 420 Stebo ___ (-6%) __________ 85 _ 94 _ 56 ____ 235 ____ 47 _ 56 _ 56 ____ 159 _____ 394 RodneyS _________________ 50 _ 92 _ 54 ____ 196 ____ 45 _ 82 _ 96 ____ 188 _____ 384 Roger Smith ______________ 70 _ 86 _ 54 ____ 210 ____ 04 _ 60 _ 66 ____ 130 _____ 340 wxdude64 ________________ 52 _ 76 _ 54 ____ 182 ____ 00 _ 70 _ 78 ____ 148 _____ 330 Damage in Tolland _________ 50 _ 62 _ 30 ____ 142 ____ 24 _ 50 _ 58 ____ 132 _____ 274 Neckbeard93 ______________42 _ 70 _ 12 ____ 124 ____ 06 _ 62 _ 66 ____ 134 _____ 258 Provisional scoring for western and all nine contests, June 2017 FORECASTER _____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _________ All nine ( = rank ) blazess556 ______________ 100 _ 66 _ 96 _______ 262 ____________ 704 ( = 4 ) Damage in Tolland _________80 _ 90 _ 90 _______ 260 ____________ 534 ( =17 ) so_whats_happening _______96 _ 68 _ 92 _______ 256 ____________ 710 ( = 1 ) Stebo ___________________100 _ 70 _100 _ 270 Stebo _____ (-6%) ________ 94 _ 66 _ 94 _______ 254 ____________ 648 ( = 6t) BKViking _________________92 _ 68 _ 92 _______ 252 ____________ 708 ( = 2 ) Roger Smith ______________70 _ 70 _100 _______ 240 ____________ 580 ( =15 ) Consensus _______________ 92 _ 58 _ 90 _______ 240 ____________ 668 ( = 5 ) wxallannj ________________ 94 _ 64 _ 74 _______ 232 ____________ 706 ( = 3 ) RodneyS ________________100 _ 56 _ 70 _______ 226 ____________ 610 ( =13 ) wxdude64 ________________80 _ 50 _ 92 _______ 222 ____________ 552 ( =16 ) SD ______________________70 _ 60 _ 80 _______ 210 ____________ 640 ( = 8 ) hudsonvalley21 ___________ 82 _ 54 _ 74 _______ 210 ____________ 656 ( = 5 ) Tom ____________________ 72 _ 48 _ 74 _______ 194 ____________ 622 ( =11 ) CCM ____________________ 54 _ 46 _ 90 _______ 190 ____________ 636 ( = 9 ) RJay ____________________ 50 _ 50 _ 90 _______ 190 ____________ 630 ( =10 ) H2OTown__Wx ___________ 42 _ 56 _ 88 _______ 186 ____________ 648 ( = 6t) dmillz25 _________________ 80 _ 50 _ 50 _______ 180 ____________ 614 ( =12 ) Neckbeard93 _____________ 88 _ 60 _ 28 _______ 176 ____________ 434 ( =18 ) DonSutherland.1 __________ 40 _ 36 _ 74 _______ 150 ____________ 590 ( =14 ) Normal __________________ 50 _ 30 _ 70 _______ 150 ____________ 590 ( =14t )
  8. Anomaly tracker with predictions based on NWS 7 day and GFS beyond that, now appearing every third day to 27th ... _______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA _______ (7d) __________ --0.1 _--5.3 _--5.3 __ +3.9 _+1.0 _--1.1 ___ +1.6 _+4.9 _+4.0 ______ (10d) __________ --0.8 _--4.2 _--3.3 __ +4.8 _+0.1 _--2.1 ___ +3.9 _+4.1 _+2.0 ______ (15d) __________ +2.1 __ 0.0 _+0.7e__ +7.4 _+0.7 _--1.0 ___ +3.4 _+1.4 _+0.7 ______ (18d) __________ +2.6 _--0.1 _--0.1e__ +7.2 _+0.5 _--0.2 ___ +3.7 _+1.6 _+0.5 ______ (21d) __________ +2.7 _+0.5 _+1.4e__ +6.0 _+0.1 _+0.1 ___ +4.3 _+2.9 _+0.7 ______ (24d) __________ +2.8 _+1.0 _+2.2e__ +5.5 _+0.1 _+0.1 ___ +3.1 _+3.5 _+1.4 ______ (27d) __________ +2.4 _+0.6 _+1.9 __ +4.0 _--0.4 _--0.3 ___ +2.7 _+4.0 _+1.9 _____ (p 30d) __________+2.0 _ +0.5 _+1.5 __+3.5 _--0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.5 _+1.5 (note 28th, will make some minor changes to provisionals later today and update each day to end of month ... for now scoring has not been adjusted yet). Max only 52 on 6th at BOS. Probably colder in 1816 though (snowed then). Then 95 on two days within a week. Highs reached 119 at PHX and 99 DEN, 96 SEA. Seasonal max contest is being updated back in the May thread, I plan to move it into the July thread when that's underway.
  9. Table of entries -- North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane seasonal contest Note: Contest Normal is 14 8 3 based on 1989 to 2016 data but is adjusted to incorporate pre-season Arlene in April, this maintains the monthly values of Contest Normal. Consensus is the mean of forecasts from American Weather Forum participants and does not include outside agencies listed, or Normal. Any forecasts received without complete data are assigned representative values for scoring purposes. These are marked with asterisks. Contest rules allow you to submit revised monthly forecasts before any month begins without penalty. You are not stuck with these monthly forecasts but you are stuck with the seasonal forecast (as of June 7th table creation). Later forecasts are accepted but we have started the late penalty countdown of one point per day, which means no point in entering past July 27th when seasonal points (50) would be reduced to zero. Note: sent Kurzov a message as their seasonal and monthlies are out of sync, in any case they have to end of June to provide updated monthlies from July to Nov-Dec. However, nobody is required to have monthlies that add up to a seasonal so these will play if not adjusted. I did edit July which reads 1/2/0 in the entry, to 2/2/0. Update _ have verified the completed forecast for pcbjr by pm. FORECASTER _______ Season __ APR __JUN __JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT__NOV-DEC Kurzov _____________22 8 2 ____1 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 0 0 _ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Windspeed _________21 11 5 ___ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 _ 6 4 3 _ 4 2 2 _ 1 0 0 Roger Smith ________19 13 6 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 3 1 _ 5 4 3 _ 4 3 2 _ 2 1 0 Kalasea ____________18 13 6 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 2 2 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 4 3 _ 3 3 0 rockchalk83 ________ 18 10 5 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 1 _ 4 3 1 _ 6 4 2 _ 4 2 1 _ 1 0 0 dmillz25 ____________17 7 3 ____1 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 6 4 2 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 Stebo ______________16 9 4 ____1 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 3 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 2 1 1 _ 1 1 0 NJwx85 ____________ 16 9 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 5 4 2 _ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0 NCforecaster89 ______ 16 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 5 4 1 _ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Consensus* _________ 16 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 3 2 _ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 Ser Pounce __________15 9 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 3 1 _ 5 3 2 _ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 Contest Normal ______ 15 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 RJay _______________ 15 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 3 1 _ 4 3 2 _ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0 NWLinnCountyIA _____ 15 6 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 Matt Petrulli _________ 15 6 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 _ 5 2 1 _ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ..... NHC (mid-range) __14 7 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 Yoda _______________13 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 3 2 _ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 ldub23 _____________ 13 8 3 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 5 3 2 _ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 radarman ___________ 12 5 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 1 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 pcbjr _______________ 11 5 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 1 0 0 ..... CSU ____________ 11 4 2 ___ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 _ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ________________________________________________________________ * Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) Mean _________ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0
  10. <<< --- FINAL REPORT on SNOWFALL CONTEST 2016-17 --->>> The first table is the assumed final standings showing total errors to date. Errors in red represent forecasts that are higher than actual amounts, and where errors could increase with any further snow (the season officially ends June 30, only DEN has any chance of snow in June and current models suggest very little chance, in fact, no snow fell in May there.) Errors in black are cases where you haven't reached your predicted value yet and these errors could decrease (until you do reach your target). Your total error is shown in the last column. This table will still be updated whenever snow falls at DEN but nobody is within 7" of using up their DEN forecasts so we can assume this table is a final report even if these numbers all change slightly. Meanwhile, the second table is the table of forecasts from November. FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error ___ Amount to date _______ 3.4 _ 30.2 _ 47.6 ___ 26.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 19.4 __ 0.0 _ 11.2 Mercurial ________________13.1" _ 1.8" _ 2.5" __ 24.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 13.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.3" ____57.3 RodneyS ________________ 7.7" _12.1"_22.5" ___ 9.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ____ 7.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.1" ____ 62.7 Maxim__________________ 19.2" _ 9.0" _ 2.5" ___ 3.9" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 25.9" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ____ 64.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________16.4" _ 0.7" _ 4.7" __ 20.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 30.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.1" ____ 65.7 BTRwx ___________________9.1" _ 6.2" _ 5.6" __ 18.9" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ____66.5 Consensus ______________ 14.8" _ 2.9" _ 3.0" __ 15.8" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 28.3" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 68.0 Normal ______________12.0"_ 4.4"_ 3.8" __ 10.2"_2.9"_0.1" __ 32.0" _0.0"_4.4" ___ 69.8 wxallannj _______________ 19.3" _ 1.0" _ 5.6" ___ 9.9" _ 5.7"__ 0.2" ___ 25.5" _ 0.0" _ 3.4" ____ 70.6 Damage in Tolland _______ 11.6" _ 4.8" _24.4" __ 16.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ____ 8.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.2" ___ 74.1 Stebo ___________________14.9" _ 2.4" _ 7.7" __ 22.6" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 26.4" _ 0.0" _ 1.3" ____ 76.1 BKViking ________________12.6" __9.8" _ 9.4" ___ 6.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 33.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 76.1 RJay ___________________ 13.6" _ 4.8" _12.4" ___ 8.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 38.2" _ 0.0" _ 1.2" ___ 80.1 Midlo Snow Maker ________ 14.6" _ 4.8" _17.4" __ 18.9" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.1" _ 2.2" ___ 87.2 SD _____________________ 9.6" _ 9.2" _12.6" __ 13.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 43.2" _ 2.0" _ 1.2" ____92.7 dmillz25 ________________ 13.6" _ 8.8" _ 5.4" __ 24.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 39.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 96.1 Mallow _________________ 29.6" _12.3" _ 3.5" __ 14.6" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 33.7" _ 0.0" _10.1"___105.3 wxdude64 _______________16.5" _ 0.6" _ 6.5" __ 30.6" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 55.7" _ 0.0" _ 6.4" ____119.5 DonSutherland.1 _________ 18.1" _ 1.5" _14.3" __ 18.8" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 57.7"_ 0.0" _ 7.4" ____119.6 Tom ___________________ 18.7" _ 6.6" _17.0" __ 31.8"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 41.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.8" ____122.1 Roger Smith _____________ 32.3"_18.4" _27.5" __ 13.7" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____125.5 _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Actual forecasts FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RodneyS ________________11.1" _18.1" _25.1" __ 35.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 29.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.1" BTRwx _________________ 12.5" _24.0" _42.0" __ 45.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _11.0" SD _____________________13.0" _21.0" _35.0" __ 40.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _2.0" _10.0" Damage in Tolland ________15.0" _35.0" _72.0" __ 43.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 30.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" Normal ______________15.4"_25.8"_43.8" __ 36.3"_2.9"_0.1" __ 53.8" _0.0"_6.8" BKViking ________________16.0" _40.0" _ 57.0" __ 33.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 55.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0" Mercurial ________________16.5" _28.4" _45.1" __ 50.3" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 35.2" _ 0.0" _ 8.9" RJay ___________________ 17.0" _35.0" _60.0" __ 35.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _10.0" dmillz25 ________________ 17.0" _39.0" _53.0" __ 51.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 61.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0" Midlo Snow Maker ________ 18.0" _35.0" _65.0" __ 45.0" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.1" _ 9.0" Consensus ______________ 18.2" _33.1" _50.6" __ 41.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 50.1" _ 0.0" _ 9.0" Stebo ___________________18.3" _27.8" _39.9" __ 48.7" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 48.2" _ 0.0" _12.5" hudsonvalley21 ___________19.8" _30.9" _42.9" __ 39.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.1" wxdude64 _______________19.9" _30.8" _41.1" __ 56.7" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 77.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.8" DonSutherland.1 _________ 21.5" _31.7" _61.9" __ 44.9" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 79.5"_ 0.0" _ 3.8" Tom ___________________ 22.1" _36.8" _64.6" __ 57.9"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 63.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.4" Maxim__________________ 22.6" _39.2" _50.1" __ 30.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 47.7" _ 0.0" _13.4" wxallannj _______________ 22.7" _31.2" _42.0" __ 36.0" _ 5.7"_ 0.2" ___ 47.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.8" Mallow _________________ 33.0" _42.5" _51.1" __ 40.7" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 55.5" _ 0.0" _ 1.1" Roger Smith _____________ 35.7"_49.0"_75.5"__ 40.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0"_15.5"
  11. Table of forecasts June 2017 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA CCM ____________________ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.1 ___+3.5 _+1.8 _+0.8 ____+0.2 _+0.8 _+1.0 blazess556 _______________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___+2.1 _+1.7 _+2.4 ____+2.5 _+1.8 _+1.3 so_whats_happening _______+2.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+2.3 _+1.8 _+2.2 ____+2.7 _+1.9 _+1.1 dmillz25 _________________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+1.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____+1.5 _+1.0 _--1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.7 ___+1.5 _+1.2 _+1.2 ____+2.8 _+1.7 _+2.8 H2OTown__Wx ___________ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.4 ___+2.2 _+3.0 _+0.8 ____--0.4 _+1.3 _+0.9 Stebo ___ (-6%) __________ +1.5 _+0.5 _--0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ____+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.5 BKViking _________________ +1.1 _+1.4 _+1.3 ___+1.5 _+0.8 _+1.9 ____+2.9 _+1.9 _+1.1 SD ______________________+1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Consensus ________________ +0.8 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___+0.8 _+1.5 _+1.4 ____+2.1 _+1.4 _+1.0 Tom ____________________ +0.6 _+0.4 _+0.2 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.8 ____+1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.3 ___+1.0 _+0.5 _+1.3 ____+1.6 _+1.2 _+0.2 Roger Smith ______________ +0.5 _--0.2 _--0.8 ___--1.3 _+1.5 _+1.7 ____+4.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 DonSutherland.1 __________ +0.3 _+0.3 _+0.1 ___--0.4 _+0.1 _--0.2____--0.5 _+0.3 _+0.2 RJay _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ________________ --0.4 _--0.7 _--0.8 ___--1.6 _+1.0 _+1.1 ____+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.9 RodneyS _________________ --0.5 _+0.1 _--0.8 ___--1.0 _+0.4 _+0.2 ____+2.5 _+1.3 __ 0.0 Damage in Tolland _________ --0.5 _--1.4 _--2.0 ___--0.3 _+2.0 _+2.1 ____+3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 Neckbeard93 ______________--0.9 _--1.0 _--2.9 ___--1.2 _+1.4 _+1.7 ____+3.1 _+1.5 _--2.1 ___________________________________________________________ With 18 forecasts, consensus is mean of 9th and 10th ranked (median).
  12. NWS mid-range of forecast will be 14/7/3, fairly similar to our contest normal although they use a 30-year normal and say this would be above normal. I will leave the contest open for entries until there is some action so feel free to edit your posts, I am not making a table until at least Sunday June 4th.
  13. +0.5 __ --0.2 __ --0.8 ___ --1.3 __ +1.5 __ +1.7 ___ +4.0 __ +2.0 __ +1.5
  14. Extreme Forecast Update In May we had five stations qualifying for an extreme forecast (either the most extreme scores high points or second most extreme wins) and two others that were close to qualifying. This brings the annual count to 30 out of 45 possible extreme forecasts. >>> May summary <<< DCA __ At --0.5, a win for H2OTown_Wx (--0.7). NYC __ At --1.3, will also be a win for H2OTown_Wx (--1.0). BOS __ --1.6 a win for wxallannj with lowest forecast of --1.2). ORD __ At --1.2 does not qualfiy, as there are forecasts of --1.9 (Neckbeard93) and --1.8 (Damage in Tolland), also --1.3 (RodneyS) which is high score. ATL __ At +1.0 does not qualify, as too close to our average forecast. IAH __ --0.6 does not qualify, DonS (--1.0) and blazess556 (--1.1) both have lower scores than Stebo (--0.5). DEN __ --1.2 a win for Stebo (--1.0) and a loss for Neckbeard93 (--1.9). PHX __ --0.3 a win for so_whats_happening (--0.3) and a loss for Stebo, at --0.5. SEA __ +1.9 this does not quite qualify with forecasts of +3.1, +2.0 and two at +1.9, third highest forecasts with highest scores. UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses) RJay _____________ 7-0 DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1 Prestige Worldwide __3-0 H2OTown__Wx ____ 2-0 Maxim ____________ 2-0 Wxdude64 _________ 2-0 Dmillz25 ___________2-0 Wxallannj __________2-0 so_whats_happening _2-0 Roger Smith _______ 1-0 RodneyS __________ 1-0 Danger in Tolland ___ 1-0 Normal ____________1-0 Stebo _____________1-2 Neckbeard93 _______ 1-1 ____________________________________________ .
  15. Hello, dropping into all regional forums to mention that there is a 2017 tropical season forecast over at Tropical Headquarters. Entries are welcome into early June without penalty. This is where to go if you're interested ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50014-2017-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-forecast-contest/ Thanks.