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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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    FREE SAMPLE ONLY $29.95
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    New Denver BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    This graphic shows how actual snowfall compared to the eleven forecasts made for the contest. It is in pseudo-map format to make the regional breakdown a bit easier to see. The number at each station tells which forecast (ranked 1 to 11 with 1 being the most snow) is currently closest to the actual value. Any entries that show 1 as the value cannot change with any new snowfall. All other numbers 2 to 11 could change. When it's 11, that means low forecast is closest. ......................................................... MQT 1 ................................ .................................................................................. APN 1 .............. .......................MSP 1 ............GRB 1 .......................................................... YYZ 2 ................................LSE 1 ...........................................................YXU 11 ....... .............................................. MKE 1 .........GRR 3 ........................................ ................................MLI 1.......ORD 2 .......................DTW 11 ....... .................................................................FWA 11.......................... CLE 11 .........................................PIA 1 ......................................................... ...........................................................IND 10..................CMH 6 ...... ................STL 5 ........................................SDF 9 ............... ................................PAH 11.......................................... This table shows who has the closest forecasts for each location (and notes who could take over the lead with additional snow) LOCATION __ Amount __ Leader _____ Forecast __ error __ ranked ___ lead changes possible with more snow __ MQT _____ 221.7 __ vpbob21 ______ 216.0 ____ -5.7 ____ 1 _______ none __ APN _______99.4 __ Mississauga snow _96.0 ____-3.4 ____ 1 _______ none __ GRR _______81.3 __ dmc76 _________ 82.0 ____+0.7 ____3 _______ DonSutherland1 at 83.1, Roger Smith at 90.0 __ MSP _______77.1 __ Roger Smith _____66.0 ___-11.1 ____ 1 _______ none __ GRB _______74.5 __ Roger Smith _____70.0 ____-4.5 ____ 1 _______ none __ LSE _______ 64.0 __ Roger Smith _____55.0 ____-9.0 ____ 1 _______ none __ MLI _______ 60.8 __ cyclone77 _______46.0 ___-14.8 ____ 1 _______ none __ YYZ _______ 55.0 __ Roger Smith _____55.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 2 _______ dmc76 at 63.2 __ MKE _______54.4 __ dmc76 _________ 54.0 ____-0.4 ____ 1 _______ none __ ORD ______ 47.0 __ dmc76 _________ 45.8 ____ -1.2 ____ 2 _______ DonSutherland1 at 50.0 (+3.0) __ PIA _______ 36.4 __ vpbob21 _______ 36.3 _____-0.1 ____ 1 _______ none __ CLE _______ 35.2 __ Mississauga Snow_41.0 ____+5.8 ___ 11 _______ vpbob21 at 49.5, DAFF at 50.0, all others higher __ YXU _______ 34.0 __ Stebo __________ 60.0 ___+26.0 ___11 _______ Jackstraw at 64.0, all others higher __ DTW _______31.3 __ slowpoke _______ 38.0 ___ +6.7 ___ 11 _______ DAFF at 39.0, cyclone77 and Jackstraw at 41.0, all others higher __ CMH _______27.4 __ madwx _________ 27.3 ___ -0.1 ____ 6 ________ slowpoke and cyclone77 at 29.0, vpbob21 at 34.7, two others higher __ FWA _______24.7 __ cyclone77 _______ 26.0 ___ +1.3 ___11 ________ slowpoke, DAFF and Roger Smith at 30.0, seven others higher __ STL ________24.2 __ cyclone 77 ______ 24.0 ___ -0.2 ____ 5 ________ dmc76 at 25.0, DonSutherland1 at 25.2, vpbob21 at 26.6, Miss' snow at 30.0 __ IND ________19.4 __ DAFF __________ 20.0 ___ +0.6 ___10 ________ cyclone77 at 24.0, slowpoke and Stebo at 25.0, six others higher __ SDF _______ 11.2 __ Mississauga Snow _11.0 ___ -0.2 ____ 9 _______ slowpoke and DAFF at 12.0, six others higher __ PAH ________ 6.1 __ cyclone77 _______ 11.0 ___ +5.9 __ 11 _______ madwx at 11.4, slowpoke and Roger Smith at 12.0, seven others higher. ____________________________________________________________________ Best forecast count ... Roger Smith, cyclone77 ________4 Mississauga snow, dmc 76 ______3 vpbob21 ____________________ 2 Stebo, madwx, DAFF, slowpoke __1 __________________________________________
  2. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Congrats to the winner and top ten leaderboard. It was an interesting winter even if not as epic as many had hoped. Maybe you should have a summer contest too, keep the interest up. Would suggest mean June to August temperature anomaly at BWI, total rainfall May to September at BWI and max temp at the four airports or just BWI. Maybe also number of severe weather warnings that include a chosen location (May to September). I don't think I should try to run a contest here, as a visitor to the shrine.
  3. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    You never know ... here's the result of the snowfall yesterday and into early hours of today, now updated into tables above. For the main scoring table, vpbob21 moved into second but with no snow at STL or Ohio valley stations where he has an advantage, he is still 15.3" out of the lead, which means that 7.7" would have to fall at the right locations (plus twice whatever fell at GRR) so if he got the 2.4" to fall at STL still to his advantage plus any amount at CMH and SDF plus amounts greater than my residuals at IND (7.6") and PAH (5.9"), any of those results could move him into first, problem being that no snow is apparent on forecast charts to end of April in any of those places. This is the only route to get past my lead that I can see from the numbers. Anywhere else, we are either both in the red (most of the northern stations) or I have more left to give (CLE, DTW, YXU) so no help is available there. Slowpoke has fallen to third place and has no mathematical route back to second or first (other than an implausible very heavy snowfall at CLE to edge into second). I can't see any realistic paths for any other forecasters to move much further ahead than where they are now. So the contest is almost settled but there remains a slight chance of the needed results as discussed above. The percentage tables are also probably near their final outcomes. The order of finish there is somewhat different, mainly because the stations that underperformed like YXU, CLE and PAH have large enough percentage errors to swing the results, so the forecasters who went low there have a boost compared to their average departures.
  4. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    Contest updated through April 11th, still some chance for vpbob21 to overtake the two ahead of him if enough snow were to fall at PIA, STL, ORD and possibly in the Ohio valley, without too much at GRR to negate the gains made. (see updates of scoring tables posted above, the first one back is an alternate scoring system using percentages, the main contest scoring has the date Feb 2 attached).
  5. First reports on April anomalies and forecasts ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (8th) ______ (7d) _______+0.1 _+0.2 _+3.1 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _--1.4 __ +5.3 _+2.8 _+5.1 (15th) ____ (14d) _______+5.4 _+3.2 _+2.1 __ +0.9 _+5.5 _+0.2 __ +0.8 _+1.9 _+3.0 (8th) ______ (p14d) _____+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.8 _+0.8 __ +1.8 _+1.4 _+3.0 (15th) _____ (p21d) _____+4.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+5.0 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 (8th) ______ (p24d) _____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 (8th) ______ (p30d) _____ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+5.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+0.5 ______________________________________________________ 15th _ Forecasts for the past week were mostly good if a bit conservative on changes, average error 1.1 but with large changes in anomaly, that's fairly good (and the conservative bias might have been more my input than NWS so it's on me). Projections to 21st mostly based on a subdued warmish regime although quite warm for both PHX and DEN at times. The extension to end of month based on GFS trends which look mainly like continuations of next week, although SEA shows a downward trend in general as west coast ridge shifts further inland. Too early for reliable provisional scoring, consensus score at present is 652/900, but changes likely in the snowfall contest which continues to be adjusted over in the March thread, will bring it here in a few days time when the current event in the Midwest is completed.
  6. Table of forecasts for April 2019 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith __________________+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8 __+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.8 _+1.2 BKViking _____ (-2%) __________+2.3 _+1.7 _+1.1 __--0.6 _+1.9 _+1.4 ___--1.0 _+0.2 _+1.3 Stebo _______________________ +2.2 _+2.7 _+2.2 __+1.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___--1.5 _--1.0 _--1.0 wxallannj ____________________ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.8 __+1.0 _+1.4 _--0.4 ___+1.2 _+0.5 _--0.6 wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.7 __--1.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 ___--1.8 _+0.4 _+1.5 DonSutherland.1 ______________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.4 __+3.5 _+1.8 _+0.6 ___+1.0 _+1.6 _+2.0 ___ Consensus ________________+2.0 _+1.9 _+1.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 ___+0.6 _+0.5 _+1.0 RodneyS _____________________+1.9 _+1.9 _+2.0 __+0.9 _+1.7 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.8 _+1.5 hudsonvalley21 _______________ +1.8 _+2.2 _+1.7 __+1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___--1.1 _--0.3 _+0.7 Tom ________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.4 __+2.3 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___+0.6 _+0.5 _+0.5 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 __0.0 _+0.5 RJay __________ (-10%) _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.7 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0
  7. Roger Smith

    Early April Winter Storm Discussion(LOL)

    This is true on the 00z GFS run there is almost nothing depicted under the inland center and all the development is supposed to take place with the coastal. Radar shows a different story. I have a hunch this could surprise and bring 1-3" snowfalls to some areas in the Mid Atlantic. It's after midnight now so no April fool's joke intended.
  8. +2.5 __ +2.0 __ +1.8 ___ +3.0 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 ___ +1.5 __ +1.8 __ +1.2
  9. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    Small amounts of snow on March 30th have put the contest over the 1986-2015 average of 1013.9" by a fraction of a percentage (1014.4"). The contest still depends on whether more snow falls at stations such as PIA, STL, APN and YYZ where the various leaders are in different positions relative to snowfall they can absorb with lower departures. See the tables above, the percentage table just above this is an alternate scoring system, the main contest scoring has the date January 23rd and has been edited since then. We won't know until the end of April who wins the contest.
  10. I wonder if anyone actually reads this post, I could really do well in the contest if I changed the format to actual instead of anomaly-based ... just kidding ... So it's as always the nine locations and a forecast of departures from 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (forecasts in F deg relative to normals). The usual deadline and late penalties apply. Good luck !!
  11. <<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Mar 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL wxdude64 _______________244 _260 _230 __ 734 __228 _160 _224 __ 612__1346 __227 _198 _ 72 __497____1843 ___ Consensus ___________ 254 _266 _216 __ 736__150 _176 _228 __ 554 __1290 __ 173 _204 _124 __ 501 ____1791 DonSutherland.1 __________212 _254 _170 __ 636 __166 _162 _220 __ 548 __1184 __ 189 _218 _198__ 605____1789 hudsonvalley21 ___________220 _264 _230 __ 714 __132 _188 _216 __ 536 __1250 __ 141 _230_148 __ 519 ____1769 RodneyS ________________ 188 _212 _230 __ 630 __132 _202 _244 __ 578 __1208 __ 207 _198 _136 __ 541 ____1749 Stebo ___________________235 _233 _238 __ 706 __146 _145 _201 __ 492 __1198 __ 191 _189 __87 __ 467 ____1665 wxallannj ________________220 _224 _258 __ 702 __ 92 _220_214 __ 526 __1228 __ 116 _192 _114 __ 422 ____1650 Roger Smith _____________ 258 _188_212 __ 658 ___74 _150 _270 __ 494 __1152 __ 183 _162 _130 __ 475 ____1627 ___ Normal ______________212 _264 _214 __ 690 __136 _136 _214 __ 486 __1176 __ 089 _223 _123 __ 435 ____1611 BKViking _________________232 _270_217 __ 719 __156 _137 _191 __ 484 __1203 __ 174 _153 _ 79 __ 406 ____1609 Scotty Lightning ___________230 _234 _232 __ 696 __106 _196 _196 __ 498 __1194 __ 080 _176 _136 __ 392 ____1586 Tom ____________________168 _246 _168 __ 582 __226 __ 82 _224 __ 532 __1114 __ 095 _208 _134 __ 437 ____1551 RJay ____________________148 _181 _173 __ 502 __188 _124 _212 __ 524 __1026 __ 186 _218 _118 __ 522 ____1548 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 0 RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 Roger Smith ____________ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 _ March provisional DonSutherland1 ______ 4-0 RodneyS ____________ 3-2 Roger Smith _________ 3-2 Stebo ______________ 2-0 Scotty Lightning ______ 2-0 wxallannj ____________1-0 RJay ________________1-0 Normal ______________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 ______________________________________________________________________________
  12. Final scoring for March 2019 Scores in orange are subject to late penalties (shown in next line). High scores in bold (after late penalties). FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________ 98 _ 90 _ 80 __268 __ 90 _ 90 _ 78 __ 258 __526 __ 75 _ 96_ 40 __ 211 _____737 RodneyS ________________64 _ 86 _ 64 __ 214 __ 74 _ 64 _ 94 __ 232 __ 446 __89 _ 90 _ 46 __ 225 _____ 671 ___ Consensus __________ 98 _ 94 _ 66 __ 258 __ 52 _ 90 _ 80 __ 222 __ 486 __ 47 _ 88 _ 46 __ 181 _____ 661 hudsonvalley21 __________ 86 _ 80 _ 94__ 260 __ 42 _ 90 _ 80 __ 212 __ 472 __ 13 _ 90 _ 52 __ 155 _____ 627 Tom ___________________ 96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 46 _ 76 _ 92 __ 214 __480 __ 07 _ 86 _ 48 __ 141 _____ 621 DonSutherland.1 _________ 60 _ 82 _ 60 __ 202 __ 68 _ 50 _ 86 __ 204 __ 406 __ 67 _ 88 _ 60 __ 215_____ 621 ___ Normal _____________100 _ 84 _ 86 __ 270__ 28 _ 78 _ 86 __ 192 __ 462 __ 00 _ 92 _ 62 __ 154 _____ 616 Scotty Lightning __________80 _ 64 _ 94 __ 238 __ 08 _98 _ 66 __ 172 __ 410 __ 00 _ 82 _ 72 __ 154 _____ 564 wxallannj _______________ 76 _ 68 _ 90 __ 234 __ 48 _ 76 _ 56 __ 180 __ 414 __ 00 _ 82 _ 42 __ 124 _____ 538 RJay ___________________ 50 _ 66 _ 36 __ 152 __ 98 _ 48 _ 86__ 232 __ 384 __ 47 _ 72 _ 62 __ 181 _ 565 ____________ (-5%) _____ 48 _ 63 _ 34 __ 145 __ 93 _ 46 _ 82 __ 221 __ 366 __ 45 _ 68 _ 59 __ 172 _____ 538 BKViking ________________96 _ 94 _ 62 __ 252 __ 52 _ 88 _ 60 __ 200 __ 452 __ 33 _ 64 _ 36 __ 133 _ 585 ____________ (-8%) _____ 88 _ 86 _ 57 __ 231 __ 48 _ 81 _ 55 __ 184 __ 415 __ 30 _ 59 _ 33 __ 122 _____ 537 Roger Smith _____________64 _ 68 _ 42 __ 174 __ 46 _ 48 _100__ 194 __ 368 __ 87 _ 80 _ 00 __ 167 _____ 535 Stebo __________________ 70 _ 74 _ 66 __ 210 __ 52 _ 82 _ 66 __ 200 __ 410 __ 47 _ 52 _ 32 __ 131 _ 541 ____________ (-5%) _____ 67 _ 70 _ 63 __ 200 __ 49 _ 78 _ 63 __ 190 __ 390 __ 45 _ 49 _ 30 __ 124 _____ 514 _____________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report There are now four extreme forecasts in play at this time. BOS is a shared win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) and hudsonvalley21 (+0.4) with a finish at +0.7. IAH is a win for Roger Smith with the coldest forecast at -0.7. DEN is a win for RodneyS (-4.6) as it finished -5.3. SEA will be a win for Scotty Lightning (+0.5) expected to finish around +1.9.
  13. Updates on the trends and forecasts ... ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (7d) _______ --6.5 _--8.8 _--6.1__--14.9 _--3.8 _--9.2 ___--17.1 _+3.8 _--5.3 ___ (14d) _______ --1.9 _--4.2 _--2.8__ --6.3 _ +2.5 _+0.6 ___ --9.6 _--1.4 _--4.6 ___ (21d) _______ --0 5_--2.0 _--0.7__ --4.6 _ +0.8 _--1.0 ___ --7.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4 ___ (28d) _______ --0 8_--1.7 _--0.3__ --3.5 _ +0.8 _--0.2 ___ --5.0 _+0.4 _+1.4 _8th __ (p14d) ___ --4.5 _--6.0 _--4.0 __ --8.0 _--1.0 _--2.0 ___--11.0 __0.0 _--3.5 15th __ (p21d) ___ --0.5 _--2.0 _--1.3 __ --4.3 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --6.4 _+1.1 _--1.5 22nd __ (p28d)___ --0.7 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --3.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --4.5 _+1.0 _+0.1 _8th __ (p24d) ___ --3.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 __ --5.0 _--0.5 _--0.5 ___ --7.0 _+0.5 _--2.0 15th __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ --2.5 _+2.0 _--2.0 22nd __ (p31d) ___ --0.5 _--1.5 _--1.0 __ --2.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --3.0 _+1.0 _--0.5 29th __ (p31d) ___ --0.2 _--1.0 _+0.2 __ --4.0 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --5.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 final anomalies ____ 0.0 _--0.8 _+0.7 __ --3.6 _+1.1 _--0.7 ___ --5.3 _+0.4 _+1.9 __________________________________________________________________ (15th) _ Trends in the past week turned out more extreme than predicted, leading to moderate errors (the expected warming outpaced forecasts especially by 13th-14th). Even so the forecasts caught about two-thirds of the actual warming. SEA on the other hand only moderated slightly. A larger western warming is expected this coming week with temperatures returning to near normal values in most of the eastern and central states. The outlook period from 22nd to 31st (GFS guidance) was handled as near normal in the northeast and ORD, trending to +3 warmth in the southeast and southwest, and a return to slightly below normal values for SEA.... seems a bit early to work out provisional scoring yet with those late month trends looking subject to revision later. (22nd) _ Forecasts for the past week have verified well (average error was 0.72, a larger portion for SEA which warmed up to record levels for several days where the forecast had been a bit less robust). This coming week looks fairly close to normal or a touch below in most places, and the month end portion 29th to 31st appears to confirm the earlier trends. So I will post some provisional scoring for the month soon. (29th) _ Forecasts have been quite close this past week (average error 0.49) but the outlook for 29th-31st at that last forecast has changed enough to make it necessary to adjust most of the provisionals. DEN and ORD will now fail to gain any further ground and will stay near the cold end of our forecast range. SEA had the largest error last week and is finishing warmer than predicted in the provisionals. The eastern stations are all getting a slight boost too. (1st April) _ Final anomalies have been posted overnight and on Monday morning. Scoring has been adjusted.
  14. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    That 3 to 5 inch potential has vanished more recently, could see faint hope near end of the current run but we all know what usually happens to snow at 15 days. The maps are available at this link: http://wetterzentrale.de click on "Archiv" option and go to 20th century NOAA which in fact is now 1851 to 2014 NOAA. From there, navigate using "nordhemispher" option. Let me know if that is not sufficient to get you to the maps. This link should go to April 28, 1898. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&amp;var=1&amp;nmaps=24&amp;map=2&amp;model=noaa&amp;jaar=1898&amp;maand=04&amp;dag=28 My German is not that good, but I now know the words for day, month and year. Abschicken is what you press to activate a selected date from the menu. Hover works to allow you to change maps within the 3-day adjacent menu without the help of Abs chicken.
  15. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    This is the updated "snow you need" table with error amounts already logged and surpassed in brackets. I have added the interesting feature of forecasts passed by actual snowfall, each time somebody adds to that total, the running total changes (same order as the forecast departures). As you'll see, only four forecasts have been overtaken by BWI, while it is 11 for RIC, 12 for DCA and 14 for IAD. Of the 59 forecasts, 18 have at least one forecast passed by actual snowfall, 41 therefore can still finish perfect with the right residual snowfalls (one forecast is currently on the money for DCA). The leader in that category (no forecasts surpassed) is event host Prince Frederick wx. Forecaster ______ Nov date ____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ____ RIC ____ TOTAL _ (forecasts passed by actual) Stormpc ___________26 _______ 1.7 ___(0.2) ___ (1.9) ___ 4.1 ______ 7.9 ____ 0 1 1 0 Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 1.2 ___ 0.4 ____(3.0) ___(3.3) ______7.9 ____ 0 1 2 1 RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 2.1 ___(3.0)___ (2.9) ____ 0.2 ______8.2 ____ 0 2 3 1 Weather53 _________21 ______ 3.0 ___(0.4)___ (4.4) ____ 1.6 ______ 9.4 ____ 0 3 4 1 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______ 3.8 ___ (0.9) ___(1.5)___ (5.1) _____ 11.3 ____ 0 4 5 2 Bob Chill __________ 27 _______ 7.8 ___ (0.9) ___ 2.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 12.1 ____ 0 5 5 2 Prince Frederick Wx __1 ________6.3 ___ 0.8 ____ 1.3 ____ 4.0 ______ 12.4 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ________4.8 ___ 1.1 ____ 5.5 ____ (2.1) _____ 13.5 ____ 0 5 5 3 biodhokie __________ 8 _______ 3.1 ___ 0.9 ____ (8.4) ___ 1.4 ______ 13.8 ____ 0 5 6 3 Chris78 ____________ 1 _______ 8.5 ___ 1.5 ____ 2.1 ____ 1.8 ______ 13.9 leesburg 04 _________1 _______ 3.8 ___ (4.9)____(3.5) ___(2.1) _____ 14.3 ____ 0 6 7 4 MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ (0.4) ___(2.7)___(6.9) ___ (5.3) _____ 15.3 ____ 1 7 8 5 dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 10.8 ___ 2.1 ____(1.5)____(2.1) _____ 16.5 ____ 1 7 9 6 Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 1.4 ____(0.7)____ (5.6) _____ 17.1 ____ 1 7 10 7 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______ 7.5 ___ 1.4 ____ 2.6 ____ 6.1 ______ 17.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _______ 9.2 ___ 4.2 ____ 3.0 ____ 1.9 ______ 18.3 supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 1.8 ___ (5.9) ___(7.5) ___(4.1) _____ 19.3 ____ 1 8 11 8 cae ______________ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 4.8 ____(0.4)______ 19.5 ____ 1 8 11 9 Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 10.6 ___ 0.8 ____ 6.8 ____ 2.4 ______ 20.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 11.3 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 4.1 ______ 20.9 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 _______ 7.5 ___ 5.9 ____ 5.7 ____ 2.9 ______ 22.0 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________8.8 ___(0.3)____ 6.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 22.5 ____ 1 9 11 9 Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 11.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 6.4 ____ 1.0 ______ 23.7 WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 10.7 ___ 4.2 ____ 6.0 ____ 3.3 ______ 24.2 mattie g __________ 28 ______ 12.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 12.2 ____ 0.8 ______ 29.6 Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 12.8___ 6.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 2.7 ______ 30.1 North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 10.6 ___ 4.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 6.5 ______ 30.5 ___ Consensus ____ median ___ 12.4___ 5.8 ____ 8.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 30.6 Bristow Wx _________ 1 ______ (4.4) _ (10.2) __(13.9) ___(4.4) _____ 32.9 ___ 2 10 12 10 Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 13.5___ 7.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 3.7 ______ 33.6 LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 16.2 ___ 2.8 ___ 16.1 ____ 0.2 ______ 35.3 wxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 13.3 ___ 5.8 ____ 8.7 ____ 8.0 ______ 35.8 mappy _____________5 ______ 13.8___ 8.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.9 ______ 36.3 Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 15.8___ 8.1 ___ 12.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 37.3 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _____ (7.3) __(10.4) __(15.4) ___(4.4) _____ 37.5 ___ 3 11 13 11 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 15.8___ 7.1 ___ 11.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 38.3 T. August _________ 21 ______ 17.8___ 6.0 ____ 1.0 ____16.1______ 40.9 Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 15.0___10.0 ___12.9 ____ 3.7 ______ 41.6 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___19.3___10.6 ___ 10.0 ____ 5.4 ______ 45.3 OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______11.9___ 9.8 ___ 18.0 ____ 6.8 ______ 46.5 HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 19.2___ 7.6 ___ 14.6 ____ 6.9 ______ 48.3 ravensrule _________12 ______ 19.8___13.1 ___ 13.5 ____ 1.9 ______ 48.3 psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 20.8___11.1 ___ 10.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 49.3 C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 20.3___13.4 ____ 9.3 ____ 7.0 ______ 50.0 Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 25.6___12.3 ___ 16.0 ____ 7.9 ______ 61.8 JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 21.8___18.1 ___ 15.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 66.3 GATECH __________ 1 _______ 27.7___18.8 ___ 21.0 ____ 1.2 ______ 67.7 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______25.6___14.2 ___ 21.4 ____ 7.6 ______ 68.8 budice2002 _______ 14 ______ 23.8___14.1 ___ 19.5 ____12.9 ______ 70.3 weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 28.6___10.5 ___ 23.1 ____ 9.9 ______ 72.1 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 28.8___13.1 ___ 25.5 ____ 4.9 ______ 72.3 nj2va _____________ 1 _______30.5___12.3 ___ 33.4 ____ 5.8 ______ 82.0 George BM ________ 15 _____ (16.5) __(15.5) __ (23.5) __ 29.6 _____ 85.1 ___ 4 12 14 11 SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 30.4___20.2 ___ 25.9 ____ 8.6 ______ 85.1 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 31.8___17.1 ___ 27.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 87.3 tplbge ____________16 _______34.8___17.1 ___ 22.5 ___ 15.9 ______ 90.3 wxdude64 ________ 13 _______37.6___21.5 ___ 30.9 ___ 13.0 ______103.0 osfan24 ___________ 7 _______36.1 __29.3 ___ 29.4 ___ 18.2 ______ 113.0 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______46.8 __23.1 ___ 29.5 ___ 14.9 ______ 114.3 RIC Airport ________ 1 _______44.3 __29.1 ___ 35.4 ___ 19.1 ______ 127.9 __________________________________________________________
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