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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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    New Denver BC Canada
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    global climate research, golf

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  1. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    You should keep the keys, the contest is great but I just like to see the spread of forecasts as we move forward (if we move forward). That way, I know it's not just me who cut one. SBY snow will eventually appear in the CF6, would be my guess, but they had a map showing some amounts like 2" in the same general area. On the bright side, 49 of 59 forecasts can still accommodate some additional snow at RIC. Half of us can make room for another 5.5" -- but most of us need storms that mostly miss RIC now. I would be hard pressed to name a favorite at this point. We all tend to look for confirmation of our own forecast, but just as a pure statistical exercise, I would say Grothar of Herndon might have the best chance given this odd start to the season.
  2. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    This is the same table that I posted earlier, reorganized in order of RIC forecasts. In "snow to date" I am showing 2.0 as an estimate for SBY, they had .25" liquid for the event but show "msg" for snowfall. I have placed snow to date near its closest RIC forecasts. (RIC in blue, DCA regular type, IAD red, BWI green and tiebreakers orange (if LYH, * added) ... Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80" Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6 MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1 Bristow Wx _________ 1 __________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ______ 12.6 13.8 supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0 Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5 leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0 dmillz25 ____________1 ___________________________10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0_____18.0 ______ 23.0_________ 32.0 _ Snow to date __ 9 Dec __ 1.41.7 2.03.0______ (11.5)*11.5 cae ______________ 30 _____________________________ 11.7_12.7 _______________ 21.8 _______27.6___ 31.3 LP08 ______________ 5 ___________________________________13.314.6 _______ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6 RodneyS __________ 21 ____________________________ 10.5 __ 13.3 13.9 ________ 20.3 __23.6 mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________ 10.4 ______ 13.9 _________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 __________38.7 Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0 Bob Chill __________ 27 ___________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _____________ 26.0 _29.0 Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4 ____________ 14.1 __________21.8 _________ 29.6 __32.9 GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5 biodhokie __________ 8 _________________________________________ 14.5__17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2 Weather53 _________21 _________________________________________ 14.7_16.516.8___21.2_22.1 Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 _ 14.9 __ 18.4 ___________ 26.7_28.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5 ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0 Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9 ___________15.5 _ 17.7 ________________28.8 ___ 33.3 Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________ 12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 ______ 32.2 WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________ 16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5 Shadowzone _______ 14 ____________________________________________ 16.8 ___ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7 Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______ 17.0 _________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0 ___ Consensus ____ median ___________________________________Sby14.4_17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0 Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 _______________________________________14.3 ___ 17.117.7 ____24.5 __ 27.8 Stormpc ___________26 _______________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9 __ 24.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 ______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 ___________ 36.5 37.5 nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 ______________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9 mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1 North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________ 14.0 ________ 19.6_21.1 _______ 28.8 ________35.7 OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5 psuhoffman ________ 1 _________________________________________________19.0 20.0 __________ 28.0 ____________37.0 39.0 HighStakes _________ 6 ________________________________________________ 18.7 20.0 ___ 24.5 ___________________ 37.4 _41.1 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 _____ 16.0 _____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0 C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9 Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8 WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ________21.1 22.7 _________31.5 _ 35.2 SnowLuvrDude _____30 _________________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ______________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4 weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ____________________ 46.8_49.6 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0 JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0 budice2002 _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0 29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0 wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0 tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0 T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0 osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9 RIC Airport ________ 1 _________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5 George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
  3. There isn't really a big range in the forecasts, and having the large dump at MLI, PIA and ORD already tends to even out the range of further forecast amounts. Looking at yours, you just went a bit lower at a lot of the locations and yet all three of your tiebreakers are above the averages too. The only real outlier forecasts I can see from anyone would be the higher and lower ends for CLE so there's a question mark placed over the lake effect potential there, I suppose some might be thinking it will be so cold that Lake Erie will freeze early and limit CLE that way, others may be thinking it will be so cold there will be a lot of snow from Lake Huron getting all the way across anyway. Some may have reasoned that while cold, the flow will be WSW which keeps squalls away from CLE (but limits them for YXU and GRR also). The contest may be won or lost with the CLE forecast since it has such a wider range than many of the others. This Tillsonburg site may not be a perfect match for YXU, they seemed to avoid one snow squall event in November that I'm sure gave 5-10 cms at YXU. But their long term averages are only marginally smaller.
  4. If you want to share any forecasts I can score them sort of equivalent rank, as it's only a fun contest, but I guess we are pretty far into the season now (especially for some places).
  5. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Took a while but done in a few separate intervals of an hour or so, just started into it and kept going for some amusement, the weather here is cold but no snow so not much inviting me out of the house. Can't golf and yard work all done, had some football on TV so almost like drone work, have been checking it carefully though as I don't want to find mistakes later. Now finished final check where I fixed up a few minor errors. I am becoming more aware of the power of group thinking in these contests (involved in quite a few elsewhere too) and how well group consensus often does -- it could be an untapped resource for long range forecasting. This winter could prove to be an exception to that idea however.
  6. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Hey, I thought it might be fun to have an interactive table of forecasts where I can move the "actual" portion through the table close to the leading forecasts. This is how it looks now with RIC at 11.5" from this storm. The SBY or LYH tiebreakers will also appear in the table. I will set them at 5" total for season (each) for now then adjust when this storm is finished. Would expect LYH to be higher than SBY after today. (edit 10th -- LYH reporting 11.5", SBY about 2" to be confirmed). You'll see your forecast in its appropriate place with DCA snowfall used to position all entries regardless of amounts of other locations. Not sure why DCA for anchoring the table but if somebody wants to see it anchored by a different location, it would take a few edits. Tied forecasts at DCA appear in their chronological order of posting. Let me know if you spot any errors, I constructed this going backwards through the thread to catch later revisions first. The scale is somewhat exponential to cover the range of forecasts best. The higher forecasts are not as widely separated by spacing as most of the others. Color coding is used for the five locations. Key: DCA, IAD, BWI, RIC, tie (SBY) tie* (LYH) __ 3 tiebreakers used LYH, they have the * with their numbers. These station codes do not appear in the table, the numbers are your forecasts. The tiebreakers are all orange but the few that are LYH have the asterisks. Numbers are placed in the table as close to correct positions as possible, when two or more station forecasts are similar. Sometimes they will not be exactly aligned when close together. Then reality intrudes on this with bold versions of the above. For now, only one tiebreak amount is showing, until I can separate actual amounts for SBY and LYH. (have now shown both of them). A date is shown for the posting of the last forecast, in each case that was in November 2018. In some cases there may have been a later edit, I am going by posting dates in the thread but in only one case has the poster dated their edit, so not every date shown corresponds to a posting date (exceptions where shown by ^ and second number is original posting date of a later edited post). In one case (clskinsfan whose post was on the first, mentions an edit on the 20th), I went by a comment posted at a later date. (this is not important to the contest anyway, just FYI). The only other known to me edit date was my own forecast originally posted 1st, edited 26th. I expect there were other similar edits made but they won't appear in this table unless you want them to appear. The consensus values in the table are median values, the 30th ranked out of 59. For consensus, with 55 selections of SBY, median is 28th ranked, and for the three selecting LYH, it is the middle of the three values. This table will be edited from time to time (for actual to date snowfalls), and perhaps moved forward in the thread or given a reference post. When or if we get past some of the lower clusters of numbers, we can move the snow to date into the heart of the table and perhaps increase the type size for readability. In any case, enjoy this addition! (some stats are compiled at bottom end of the table). Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80" _ Snow to date __ 9 Dec __ 1.41.7 2.03.0__________ (11.5)*11.5 George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1 Bristow Wx _________ 1 ___________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ____ 12.6 13.8 supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0 leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0 RodneyS __________ 21 ___________________________ 10.5 _13.3 13.9 __________ 20.3 __23.6 MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 ____ 16.0 ____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0 Bob Chill __________ 27 ________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _______________ 26.0 _ 29.0 Weather53 _________21 ______________________________________14.7_16.516.8____21.2_22.1 Stormpc ___________26 ___________________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9_ 24.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 _______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0 Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5 Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 ______________________________________ 14.3_17.117.7 __________24.5 _ 27.8 Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9________ 15.5 _ 17.7 __________________28.8 ___ 33.3 biodhokie __________ 8 ______________________________________ 14.5 ___17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0 _____18.0 _______ 23.0_________ 32.0 Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1 Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 14.9 ___ 18.4 ___________26.7_28.6 dmillz25 ____________1 _____________________________ 10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0 LP08 ______________ 5 ______________________________________13.314.6 ___ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5 North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________14.0 _____ 19.6_21.1 _________ 28.8 ________35.7 mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________10.4 _____13.9 __________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 ___________38.7 WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5 Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4___________ 14.1 ___________21.8 _________29.6 ___ 32.9 cae ______________ 30 ________________________________11.7_12.7 _____________ 21.8 _______27.6 ___ 31.3 WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ____21.1 22.7 _____________31.5 _ 35.2 ___ Consensus ____ median ____________________________________Sby14.4 _17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 _____ 32.2 T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0 Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______17.0 __________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0 Shadowzone _______ 14 ___________________________________________ 16.8 ____ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7 HighStakes _________ 6 _________________________________________________18.7 20.0 ___24.5 __________________ 37.4 _41.1 Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0 mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0 OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5 Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4 weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ______________________ 46.8_49.6 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 _____________ 36.5 37.5 psuhoffman ________ 1 ___________________________________________________19.0 20.0 _______ 28.0 _______________37.0 39.0 nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 _____________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9 Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0 ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0 C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5 budice2002 _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0 29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9 tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0 JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0 GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5 SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ____________________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4 wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0 RIC Airport ________ 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5 osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Some stats of interest: 27 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls from least to greatest _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD ___ RodneyS, MN Transplant, Bob Chill, Olafminesaw, Prince Frederick Wx, Gopper, Chris78, Millville Wx, North Balti Zen, mattie g, WxWatcher007, Yoda, cae, WxUSAF, North Arlington 101, Prestige Worldwide, BTRwx's Thanks Giving, High Stakes, Onceinalifetime2009, Cobalt, weather CCB, nj2va, snowgolfbro, southMDwatcher, showmethesnow, GATECH, osfan24. 6 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI ___ Thanatos_I_Am, dmillz25, clskinsfan, psuhoffman, Roger Smith, tplbge ... in addition, one more is the same as the above with no tiebreaker __ AfewUnivbelowN 11 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ RIC _ (tiebreak) _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD ___ nw Baltimore wx, WinterWxLuvr, LP08, shadowzone* Sparky, mappy, ravensrule, budice2002, JakkelWx, SnowLuvrDude, wxdude64* 1 of 59 forecasts have this order of snowfalls _ RIC _ (tiebreak) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI __ C.A.P.E. 2 forecasts go in the order of RIC _ DCA _ (tiebreak) _ IAD _ BWI __ supernovasky, RIC Airport* 2 forecasts go in the order of DCA _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD __ East coast NPZ, stormPC 3 forecasts go in the order of (tiebreak) _ DCA _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD __ Gramax Refugee, Grothar of Herndon, Wonderdog 1 forecast goes in the order of DCA _ (tiebreak) _ RIC _ IAD _ BWI __ Bristow Wx 1 forecast goes in the order of DCA _ BWI _ IAD _ RIC _ (tiebreak) __ George BM 1 forecast goes in the order of (tiebreak) _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _ BWI __ T. August 2 forecasts go in the order of RIC _ DCA _ (tiebreak) _ BWI _ IAD __ leesburg 04, Weather53 1 forecast goes in the order of RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ (tiebreak) __ biodhokie * 3 forecasters who selected LYH as their tiebreakers __________________________________________________________________ Leaving out the tiebreaker, the clusters are as follows: RIC _ DCA _ BWI _ IAD ___ 40 RIC _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI ____11 DCA _ RIC _ BWI _ IAD ____ 5 DCA _ RIC _ IAD _ BWI ____ 1 DCA _ IAD _ RIC _ BWI ____ 1 DCA _ BWI _ IAD _ RIC ____ 1 ___________________________________________________________________ RIC was therefore placed higher than DCA 8 times, higher than IAD 2 times and higher than BWI once. DCA was never placed higher than IAD or BWI by any forecaster. BWI was placed higher than DCA by 13 of 59 forecasters. The tiebreaker when SBY was placed lowest by 36 of 55, LYH was not placed lowest by any of 3. The tiebreaker when SBY was placed second lowest above only RIC by 12 of 55 and by two choosing LYH. The tiebreaker when SBY was placed second lowest above only DCA by 3 of 55. The tiebreaker when SBY was placed higher than both DCA and RIC by 2 of 55 and by one choosing LYH. The tiebreaker when SBY was placed higher than all four contest locations by 2 of 55. ____________________________________________________________________ No forecaster predicted the same amount of snow at any of their five locations (several were 0.1" different). _____________________________________________________________________ The IAD to DCA ratio averaged close to 2:1 in the lower half of the forecasts and narrowed to about 1.5:1 in the heavier snowfall forecasts. The smallest IAD to DCA ratio in the contest is 18.1:17.8 (about 1.016:1) from biodhokie. ______________________________________________________________________ Hope you enjoy using this table to track the ever-mounting snow totals (in February, let's say).
  7. Roger Smith

    December 9/10 Storm

    Just reading the comments about any similar cutoff, I wonder if anyone there can either remember or look up what happened with a big snowstorm that hit southeast VA on Feb 29 to Mar 1 1980, I remember it was very heavy snowfalls around Norfolk area (15-20") but don't recall what happened further north. I was working in the Accu-weather office that winter on a business project and probably sitting next to JB when this storm happened (he got so excited even then). Maybe there was a similar cutoff with that storm as I don't think it snowed in State College PA.
  8. Roger Smith

    December 9/10 Storm

    A separate concern for heavy snow in south-central VA would be phase given that the uppers never become better than marginal, and the depth of cold air is not dramatic. I expect places like RIC could see enough precip for 10" snowfalls but how much will lie on the ground at any given time as snow? Maybe 2-4" ... somewhat higher regions further west might do better with their ratios. If the storm does jog north and overspreads DCA to BWI then snow ratios should be better since the storm would have to tackle a colder air mass in place there. So the odds on all snow would be good if there's anything to be had at all. My current view is 30% chance measurable for DCA, 15% for IAD to BWI, 50-50 in southern suburbs. Best snowfall locations likely to be near NC-VA border west of Danville.
  9. First set of anomalies and forecasts ... ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ______ (7d) __________+0.3 _--1.3 _+0.2 ___--0.6 _+0.4 _+1.6 ___--4.0 _--0.6 _--1.2 _ 8th ____ (p14d) _________ --1.5 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--1.0 _--2.0 _--1.7 ___--1.0 _--1.8 _--1.5 _ 8th ____ (p24d) _________ --1.0 _--2.0 _--1.5 ___--1.0 _--1.0 _--0.3 ____ 0.0 _--1.0 _--0.5 ______________________________________________ 8th _ The month began quite warm in eastern and central regions, then turned colder. This cold trend is supposed to last a few more days, then go briefly milder, with another cold interval before the 20th and milder again towards Christmas. No large temperature swings are foreseen, most days expected to remain within 5 degrees of normal. The 16-day forecast is an extension of the 7-day NWS numbers using the GFS output for 8th to 16th. As many stations are converging on small final anomalies, the consensus score if Normal scores the max of 900 would be 756. Forecasts are scattered around that median to the extent that almost anybody could win the contest if they get top score in December.
  10. Snowfalls to date -- this post will be updated whenever new snow is reported LOCATION ________ Oct __ Nov __ Dec (to date) ___ Contest total __ % Normal (full season) APN ______________ 0.2 __ 9.9 __ 2.1 ______________ 12.2 ________ 15 ORD ______________ Tr __12.7 __ 0.3 ______________ 13.0 ________ 34 CLE _______________0.0 __ 4.4 __ 1.7 _______________ 6.1 _________ 9 CMH ______________0.0 __ 1.9 __ 0.6 _______________ 2.5 _________ 8 DTW ______________ Tr __ 6.7 __ 0.1 _______________ 6.8 ________ 15 FWA ______________0.0 __ 2.1 __ 0.1 _______________ 2.2 _________ 7 GRR ______________ Tr __14.4 __ 1.9 ______________ 16.3 ________ 21 GRB ______________ Tr __ 3.8 __ 3.0 _______________ 6.8 _________13 IND ______________ Tr __ 0.4 __ 0.5 ________________0.9 _________ 3 LSE ______________ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 2.7 _______________ 4.7 _________10 YXU ______________0.0 __ 3.2 __ 2.0* ______________ 5.2 _________ 4 SDF ______________0.0 __ 0.5 __ Tr ________________ 0.5 _________ 4 MQT _____________ 4.2 _ 37.7 _ 21.0 ______________ 62.9 _________31 MKE ______________ Tr __ 6.6 __ 0.2 _______________ 6.8 _________14 MSP ______________0.3 __ 4.0 __ 3.0 _______________ 7.3 _________15 MLI ______________ 0.2 _ 18.4 __ 0.3 ______________ 18.9 _________56 PAH ______________0.0 __ 2.3 __ Tr ________________ 2.3 _________25 PIA _______________Tr __ 9.8 __ 0.4 _______________10.2 _________41 STL ______________0.0 __ 5.2 __ 1.7 ________________6.9 _________38 YYZ ______________1.0 __ 6.2 __ 1.4 ________________8.6 _________20 ________ TOTAL to date ___________________________________201.1 _______ 19.9 % _________________________________________________________ * Tillsonburg (for YXU) updated to Dec 12, rest are Dec 13 ... Canadian locations are converted to inches from cms.
  11. 2018-19 Snowfall forecast contest ... this will move along month by month, updated to Dec 7th ... FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date __________ 1.4 __ 6.4 __ 0.1 ___13.0 __ 6.8 __22.2 ___ 7.7 __ 0.0 __25.0 RJay __________________33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0 Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6 wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0 Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0 BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0 ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8 dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0 wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3 hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0 Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0 Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0 RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0 _____________________________________________________________________ High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .
  12. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Just like there's a greater than zero chance that I will be the next president of the United States. A lot of things have to happen, none of them very probable. By the way, I don't want to be, it seems to require explaining all your actions from age 16 to 30 and there is a zero chance of that happening.
  13. Roger Smith

    December 9/10 Storm

    Low appears to be slowly organizing between San Antonio and Monterrey MX. At least it has access to the Gulf. (looking for silver linings)
  14. Table of entries for snowfall contest 2018-19 _________________________________________ These forecasts are arranged in order of total snowfall FORECASTER _________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW__FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_LSE__YXU_SDF__MQT_MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA__STL_YYZ __ TOTAL dmc76 _______________77.0_45.8_82.4_38.9_58.4_47.8_82.0_55.6_28.8_40.6_104.4_17.7__189.0_54.0_47.7_27.0_21.0_22.0_25.0_63.2__1128.3 Roger Smith __________ 90.5_35.0_80.0_27.0_45.0_30.0_90.0_70.0_27.0_55.0__87.0_10.5__200.5_45.5_66.0_39.0_12.0_30.0_14.5_55.0__1109.5 DonSutherland.1 _______81.7_50.0_83.9_45.0_56.5_41.5_82.4_48.9_42.7_38.2_109.4_23.0__145.2_47.1_40.4_32.3_18.5_35.0_25.2_49.2__1096.1 vpbob21 _____________ 76.4_44.1_49.5_34.7_43.2_33.2_65.9_47.0_31.4_38.8__70.1_24.6__216.0_44.7_53.1_45.1_16.9_36.3_26.6_52.0__1049.6 ___ Contest normal ____ 80.4_38.1_67.2_28.4_44.8_34.0_77.1_54.2_25.9_46.1__75.7_13.9__199.8_49.2_50.6_33.5__9.2_24.9_18.4_42.5___1013.9 madwx _______________84.5_45.4_66.1_27.3_52.1_36.1_75.1_49.8_26.2_41.3__65.1_14.2__181.2_42.3_48.3_40.7_11.4_26.3_16.2_51.3__1000.9 ___ Contest median ____77.0_42.0_66.1_27.3_45.0_33.2_75.0_49.0_26.2_40.6__70.1_14.0__188.0_43.0_47.7_39.0_15.0_29.0_22.0_49.2___998.4* Mississauga Snow _____ 96.0_39.0_41.0_22.0_50.0_31.0_70.0_45.0_17.0_35.0__80.0_11.0__200.0_34.0_55.0_40.0_15.0_26.0_30.0_47.0___984.0 cyclone77 ____________ 90.0_44.0_59.0_29.0_41.0_26.0_73.0_47.0_24.0_42.0__78.0__9.0__175.0_43.0_47.0_46.0_11.0_31.0_24.0_41.0___980.0 Jackstraw ____________ 72.0_30.0_91.0_27.0_41.0_36.0_75.0_49.0_31.0_31.0__64.0_14.0__212.0_35.0_30.0_34.0_22.0_20.0_16.0_46.0___976.0 slowpoke _____________72.0_42.0_57.0_29.0_38.0_30.0_68.0_49.0_25.0_42.0__66.0_12.0__188.0_47.0_47.0_40.0_12.0_29.0_22.0_48.0___963.0 Stebo ________________65.0_35.0_83.0_22.0_48.0_37.0_77.0_45.0_25.0_35.0__60.0_18.0__185.0_40.0_35.0_31.0_18.0_20.0_20.0_50.0___949.0 DAFF ________________75.0_37.0_50.0_26.0_39.0_30.0_73.0_51.0_20.0_45.0__65.0_12.0__172.0_41.0_48.0_38.0_14.0_29.0_17.0_37.0___919.0 ______________________________________ *contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0  Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries) dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0" Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5" DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2" vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1" madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3" Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0" cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ___ Feb DTW 13.4" Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___Feb DTW 10.5" slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0" Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2" DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9" (mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"
  15. Roger Smith

    December 9/10 Storm

    That GGEM 72-84h pass looks like 8-12" in central VA to southeast MD, 3-5" DCA to s NJ and a sharp cutoff near MD-PA border. Let's hope that trend of sharp northern cutoffs moving north works with this one. Then it could be more like 8-12" everywhere and let PA worry about where 3-5" ends up.
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