Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    CONTEST ORGANIZER
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. Table of forecasts for March 2021 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ Bias vs con wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____+3.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 ___ --1.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ___ --2.2 _ +1.1 _ --1.1 ____ --0.59 so_whats_happening (-2%) _____+3.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 ___ +2.6 _ +3.2 _ +3.4 ___ +1.8 _ +2.2 _ --0.5 ____ +0.94 RJay __________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ --2.0 ____ +0.57 Tom _______________ (-5%) ______+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ____ +0.42 hudsonvalley21 ________________+2.0 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.3 ___ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ --1.0 ____ +0.40 BKViking ______________________ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.1 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ --2.0 ____ --0.14 ___ Consensus ________________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ --1.0 DonSutherland 1 ______________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.1 ___ +2.2 _ +0.3 _ --2.1 ____ +0.19 wxallannj ______________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +2.9 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ --1.8 ____ --0.02 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ____ --0.32 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --1.27 RodneyS ______________________--0.1 _ --0.2 _ --0.1 ___ +0.8 __ 0.0 _ +0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ --0.5 ____ --1.09 Roger Smith __________________ --1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 ___ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ --1.2 ____ --1.92 =========================================================== Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for PHX. Bias shows your forecast tendencies averaged out relative to group consensus. Most are expecting slightly warmer than average (which is probably where the 1991-2020 normals will come in).
  2. <<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Feb) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> FHigh scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RodneyS ______________________ 160 _170 _170 __500 __ 69 _148 _ 52 __269 __ 769 __112 _184 _164 __460 ____ 1229 DonSutherland1 _______________142 _128 _114 __384 __105 _152 _ 96 __353 __ 737 __114 _166 _146 __428 ____ 1165 BKViking ______________________ 132 _150 _164 __446 __ 20 _152 _ 72 __244 __ 690 __ 68 _178 _158 __404 ____ 1094 ___ Consensus ________________ 158 _154 _154 __466 __ 38 _128 _ 66 __232 __ 698 __ 78 _182 _130 __390 ____ 1088 wxdude64 _____________________ 142 _134 _156 __432 __ 61 _102 _ 66 __229 __ 661 __ 86 _194 _134 __ 414 ____ 1075 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 146 _126 _142 __414 __ 51 _130 _ 82 __263 __ 677 __ 60 _170 _140 __370 ____ 1047 Tom ___________________________ 160 _168 _174 __502 __ 25 _ 90 _ 64 __ 179 __ 681 __ 62 _192 _ 98 __ 352 ____ 1033 Scotty Lightning _______________ 134 _134 _132 __400 __ 06 _152 _ 88 __246 __ 646 __ 88 _172 _114 __ 374 ____ 1020 wxallannj ______________________ 140 _154 _142 __436 __ 38 _120 _ 48 __206 __ 642 __ 66 _170 _128 __364 ____ 1006 Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _108 _ 84 __314 __111 _ 98 _158 __367 __ 681 __ 74 _ 104 _100 __278 _____ 959 ___ Normal _____________________124 _134 _142 __400 __ 00 _112 _ 64 __176 __ 576 __ 78 _172 _124 __374 _____ 950 so_whats_happening ___________144 _112 _100 __356 __ 56 _158 _ 42 __256 __ 612 __ 54 _190 _ 72 __316 _____ 928 RJay __________________________ 134 _112 _ 82 __ 328 __ 56 _112 _ 64 __232 __ 560 __ 84 _142 _ 78 __ 304 _____ 864 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxdude64 ____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, nine locations out of 18 have qualified, 4 in Jan and 5 in Feb. Of those, five were awarded to warmest forecasts, four to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb ______ TOTAL to date Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 _______ 4-1 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 _______ 3-0 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 _______ 1-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 _______ 1-0 __________________________________________
  3. --1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ --1.2
  4. Predict the temperature anomalies relative to 30-year average still in use (1981-2010 until notified otherwise) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
  5. Final scoring for February 2021 Scores are based on final anomalies as listed two posts back in the thread. Scores with ^ symbols are based on the max 60 rule, any raw scores that would be higher are left standing. With eleven forecasts, the scoring progression for boosted scores is 60, 54, 48, 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 06, 00. DEN needs minimum progression, the highest raw score at present is only 11. (outcome -7.1, lowest fcst -1.1). Scores for IAH would also go to this progression if max raw score was under 60. That would require an anomaly of -5.1 or colder. With warmer weather setting in (20th) this is still going to be difficult (-9.6 after 21 days, est -9.0 after 22). However, at the end, very warm weather has reduced the anomaly to -4.7 which produces a max score of 66 and eliminates the scoring boost (sorry, I was the culprit there). ORD has performed a similar reduction of the previously huge negative anomaly to -7.5, and once again you're stuck with raw scores because of my wild guess of -6.0. Despite those two point-bagging episodes, my other cold forecasts scored low and I'm at the bottom of the table anyway. For the minimum progression adjustments, consensus will be the same as one of these and Normal is scored from its relative position. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________ 84 _ 84 _ 84 ___ 252 __ 19 _ 86 _ 00 __ 105 __ 357 __ 48^_ 96 _ 68 __ 212 _____ 569 Tom _______________________ 94 _ 94 _ 98 ___286 __ 25 _ 52 _ 00 __ 077 __ 363 __ 30^_ 98 _ 36 __ 164 _____ 527 wxdude64 __________________62 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 202 __ 39 _ 48 _ 00 __ 087 __ 289 __ 60^_100 _76 __236 _____ 525 ____ Normal ________________ 76 _ 78 _ 82 ___ 236 __ 00 _ 70 _ 06 __ 076 __ 312 __ 42^_ 74 _ 60 __ 176 _____ 488 DonSutherland1 ____________ 72 _ 72 _ 66 ___ 210 __ 09 _ 60 _ 02 __ 071 __ 281 __ 42^_ 82 _ 80 __ 204 _____ 485 Scotty Lightning ____________56 _ 58 _ 62 ___ 176 __ 00 _ 90 _ 00 __ 090 __ 266 __ 42^_ 94 _ 50 __ 186 _____ 452 ____ Consensus ____________ 70 _ 58 _ 66 ___ 194 __ 10 _ 66 _ 00 __ 076 __ 270 __ 30^_ 98 _ 50 __ 178 _____ 448 BKViking ___________________42 _ 54 _ 66 ___ 162 __ 00 _ 86 _ 00 __ 086 __ 248 __ 24^_ 94 _ 70 __ 188 _____ 436 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 70 _ 56 _ 80 ___ 206 __ 03 _ 66 _ 10 __ 079 __ 285 __ 12^_ 92 _ 42 __ 146 _____ 431 so_whats_happening _______44 _ 54 _ 62 ___ 160 __ 10 _ 98 _ 00 __ 108 __ 268 __ 06^_ 98 _ 24 __ 128 _____ 396 wxallannj __________________ 52 _ 54 _ 54 ___ 160 __ 10 _ 44 _ 00 __ 054 __ 214 __ 54^_ 72 _ 48 __ 174 _____ 388 RJay _______________________36 _ 38 _ 32 ___ 106 __ 00 _ 70 _ 06 __ 076 __ 182 __ 18^_ 94 _ 50 __ 162 _____ 344 Roger Smith ________________34 _ 28 _ 14 ___ 076 __ 85 _ 00 _ 66 __ 151 __ 227 __ 00 _ 76 _ 14 __ 090 _____ 317 _____________________________________________________________ ======================================================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Four locations are wins for coldest forecasts -- ORD and IAH (Roger Smith), DEN (wxdude64) and SEA (DonSutherland1). ATL is a win for highest forecast (so_whats_happening). ========================================================= IAH has been adjusted and annual scoring (Jan-Feb) will follow later today. Worth noting that 7 of 9 locations averaged below normal in February, the average departure of all nine was --2.3 F.
  6. Tips for shovelling a sleet drift ... 1. Don't.
  7. DT looks fairly solid to me, would loop that 1" line around western Lake Ontario and put a 3" lolly in there, get some clients in Hamilton, football capital of Canada. A town near there has had 3 feet of snow in the last week mostly from lake effect in east winds.
  8. I hope it's sleet and not freezing rain, that can do a lot more damage to trees and power lines. There's a ton of moisture streaming into the frontal system near the MS-AL border in the same packet that will be over Virginia in 24 hours. You don't have as much wind-turbine component in your energy grid as Texas, I hope.
  9. Agree with the 3 to 6 inch calls (I-95) with best snow axis MRB to 50s ABE ... slight uncertainty remains about part two which depends on any development of low pressure currently in the central GOM south of Houma LA at about 27.5 N, oil rig obs indicate a juicy warm sector has developed (75/73 south wind to 30 mph) and this is supposedly heading for landfall near Pensacola or Mobile Bay then tracking through southern GA and up the Carolina coast. However, almost all guidance does nothing more than drag along an ill-defined trailing wave to the first low that forms in resonance with the inland snowfall energy, and eventually most models just ripple all the energy forward into that leading wave for explosive development south of NS Canada by Friday (late). If that were to prove inaccurate and this Gulf low maintains a stronger and more intact center and develops a circulation, then it could increase your snow and decrease the otherwise apparently inevitable sleet producing longer duration portion of the event. Let's say later models show a 1004 mb center deepening to 996 mb (which is probably only now on a few perturbations in the ensemble) then it would distort the thermals enough to keep the column colder and might turn into a heavier snowfall. That's the only route I see to anything heavier than about 6" and my forecast range is 3-6" for the three airports, 6-8" Frederick and 8-12" max in the MRB to MDT zone. A different evolution of the Gulf low could add several more inches to that but as I say no guidance supports this, although it has to be said that the weak feature now on the map is managing to produce quite a good circulation at the moment in the central to western GOM. Probably what would be needed is more digging of the upper trough to energize this low further, it has all the thermal gradients a low could possibly use.
  10. Here are the forecasts for the snowfall contest (last updated Feb 28 in the previous post) ... Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep snowfall to Feb 28___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.4 ___47.0 _ 41.3 _ 71.5 __ 33.6 _ 12.9 _ 58.2 wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 81.7 (24.2) Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 ____117.9 (21.2) hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 ____114.4 (21.6) Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 165.7 (24.8) Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 118.1 (23.7) wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 ____ 125.3 (20.0) RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 83.5 (39.2) Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____112.9 (55.5) RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____113.7 (76.0) __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______100.3 (25.2) snowfall to Feb 28 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.4 ___47.0 _ 41.3 _ 71.5 __ 33.6 _ 12.9 _ 58.2 _________________________________________________________________________ Current best forecasts are in red. Underlined means settled as there was no higher forecast. In the "total current departure" the first number is subject to reductions as your higher forecasts converge on the eventual totals but a few forecasts (including all at SEA and NYC) are already below the outcome and so the number in brackets is your total non-reducible error (the portion of total departure that can only grow larger). Hard to say who has the advantage at this point, the larger departures will catch up at 2x new snowfalls (in some cases, if you're above the seasonal total and fellow competitor is below) until new snowfalls increase beyond predictions.
  11. Unless this thing explodes you will be near the top, with seven weeks to go until it gets too warm for snow ... seven agonizing, slowly unfolding weeks of dribs and drabs of snow that will move mappy and stormpc inexorably closer to victory.
  12. Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 25 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link) https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable.
  13. Don't forget the min for Tuesday is a 24-hour day min so for DCA it could occur on Tuesday evening.
  14. For DFW, today's normal high and low are 60 and 39 F. The former record low (already broken) was 15 in 1909. The lowest hourly so far today is 4, and climate report just out indicates that's now the new record low. The high for the day is given as 14F at 4:16 p.m., no doubt a record low max (will update this report when they update their record reports). Yesterday (14th) had a record low max of 22 which broke a former record of 27 set in 1951. That year also set the previous daily snowfall record of 3.0" (yesterday 4.0"). Only a trace of snow was added after midnight, snow depth remains 4" for today's early climate report. Yesterday's midnight low of 9 also set a daily record for the 14th. This cold outbreak has made it into northeast Mexico, earlier today 24 F at Matamoros across from Brownsville. Even a couple of hundred miles south of there it was only 32 at Ciudad Victoria and 41 at Tampico. These have to be close to all-time record low readings. It has only warmed a few degrees from those morning readings and currently it's 30 (a.m. 18) at Corpus Christi and 23 (a.m. 17) at Houston. (4 p.m. DEN came in at 18F).
  15. Either way it was 13 at DFW (4 p.m. CST) and DEN has warmed to 19 at 3 p.m. MST. Showing the difficulty of forecasting around DEN, the other airport there south of town is 34 (calm and sunny).