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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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    FREE SAMPLE ONLY $29.95
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    New Denver BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  2. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  3. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  4. Jaxjagman is doing pretty well for your forum ... you might want to back him up in later months. I'm playing solo myself against the NYC powerhouse and it's an unequal struggle but I'm ahead (blind luck mostly and my occasional helpers).
  5. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  6. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  7. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  8. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  9. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  10. This is your invitation to participate in the 2018 American Weather Forum North Atlantic tropical season forecast contest. All the details are at this link: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51267-2018-north-atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-forecast-contest/ Entries will be accepted until June 4th (06z June 5th to be more exact). Hope you'll consider entering.
  11. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    MQT continues to have a snow-free May, the normal amount cited in the daily climate report for 21st is 1.5" and the normal amount cited last May 31 was 1.5" so I surmise that it normally does not snow after this date. The normal June snowfall is cited as zero, I imagine there have been small amounts on a few occasions in the historical record. The current GFS output shows no strong chances for snow in the next sixteen days. So I think we can wrap this contest up. FINAL RESULTS declared. Drive safely. Don't forget to play again next late October into early November.
  12. May 20 _ I have just checked the latest forecasts and guidance to end of month, the provisionals in use for the table above appear to be on track in general, so here's how the annual races are now shaping up ... --- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - May 2018 ====>>>> -- ---- Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. MAY based on provisional scoring ... best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year. ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... the same applies to monthly award as shown, and to eastern subtotal best score as shown. FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________316 _304 _296 ____916 ____ 257 _330 _132 ____ 719 ___ 1635 __2*2*1 03*1 .2*.1 __ MAY* so_whats_happening _178 _229 _311 ____ 718 ____ 263 _290 _220 ____ 773___ 1491 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB hudsonvalley21 _____ 243 _260 _272 ____ 775 ____ 163 _283 _263 ____ 709 ___ 1484 ___ wxdude64 _________ 282 _270 _330 ____ 882 ____ 206 _247 _142 ____ 595 ___ 1477 ___ 110 000 .1.0 DonSutherland.1 ___ 250 _252 _292 ____ 794 ____ 205 _282 _179 ____ 666 ___ 1460 ___ 001*.100 .0.0 jaxjagman _________ 234 _220 _306 ____ 760 ____ 182 _284 _196 ____ 662 ___ 1422 ___ 001 000 .0.0 ___Normal _________234 _227 _309 ____ 770 ____ 262 _235 _107 ____ 604 ___ 1374 ___ 000 101 .0.0 Scotty Lightning (SD) _227 _217 _316 ____ 760 ____ 247 _217 _137 ____ 601 ___ 1361 ___ 000 100 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 221 _227 _286 ____ 734 ____ 183 _262 _175 ____ 620 ___ 1354 ___ RJay ______________196 _252 _291 ____ 739 ____ 137 _266 _209 ____ 612 ___ 1351 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR BKViking ___________231 _255 _294 ____ 780 ____ 147 _235 _183 ____ 565 ___ 1345 ___ Stebo _____________ 196 _202 _268 ____ 666 ____ 195 _262 _210 ____ 667 ___ 1333 ___ 000 001 .0.0 wxallannj __________ 216 _252 _276 ____ 744 ____ 184 _218 _185 ____ 587 ___ 1331 ___ 000 001 mappy ____________ 184 _195 _279 ____ 658 ____ 175 _244 _204 ____ 623 ___ 1281 ___ 001 000 .0.0 RodneyS __________ 226 _216 _254 ____ 696 ____ 185 _244 _154 ____ 583 ___ 1279 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR Tom ______________ 207 _223 _282 ____ 712 ____ 144 _261 _123 ____ 528 ___ 1240 ___ dmillz25 ___________ 187 _157 _204 ____ 548 ____ 202 _238 _192 ____ 632 ___ 1180 ___ 000 010 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(4/5)_101 _157 _206 ____ 464 ____ 124 _092 _151 ____ 367 ____ 831 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 Mercurial (2/5) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/5)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/4) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (1)_080 _090 _096 ____ 266 ____ 060 _080 _080 ____ 220 ____ 486 ___ 111 010 .1.0 __ MAY nrgJeff _ (2/5) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: all shown (2/5) missed March to May, Orangeburgwx (4/5) missed January and H2OTown_wx (3/5) missed April, May. Part Two: Western and All Nine contests ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 282 _ 318 _ 340 _____ 940 __________ 0 0 2 __ Apr ______ 2301 (= 2) BKViking _______________244 _ 292 _ 310 _____ 846 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2191 (= 6) RodneyS_______________ 256 _ 344 _ 240 _____ 840 __________ 1 1 1 __May _______2119 (= 8) __ MAR, APR so_whats_happening _____249 _ 319 _ 237 _____ 805 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2296 (= 3) __ FEB DonSutherland.1 ________ 272 _ 260 _ 272 _____ 804 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______2264 (= 5) Roger Smith ____________260 _ 280 _ 260 _____ 800 __________ 1 0 0 __ Jan _______ 2435 (= 1) __ MAY Tom __________________ 273 _ 268 _ 246 _____ 787 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2027 (=12) hudsonvalley21 _________ 246 _ 263 _ 275 _____ 784 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2268 (= 4) __Normal ______________256 _ 238 _ 290 _____ 784 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2158 (= 8) __ FEB __ Consensus __________ 242 _ 278 _ 262 _____ 782 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2136 (= 8) wxallannj ______________ 234 _ 296 _ 238 _____ 768 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2099 (=10) RJay __________________198 _ 248 _ 268 _____ 714 __________ 1 0 0 _____________2065 (=11) Orangeburgwx (4/5)______232 _ 259 _ 220 _____ 711 __________ 1 2 1 __ Feb _______1542 (=16) wxdude64 _____________ 240 _ 226 _ 235 _____ 701 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2178 (= 7) jaxjagman _____________ 192 _ 248 _ 250 _____ 690 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2112 (= 9) dmillz25 _______________ 181 _ 257 _ 222 _____ 660 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1840 (=14) Stebo _________________ 138 _ 202 _ 192 _____ 532 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1865 (=13) mappy _________________140 _ 196 _ 175 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1792 (=15) H2OTown__WX (3/5) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18) Mercurial __ (2/5) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 080 _ 100 _ 010 _____ 190 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 676 (=20) nrgJeff ____ _(2/5) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/5) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25) __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-May) Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS Mid Atlantic _______________1084 _____ 877 _____ 917 ________2878 Central + Western _________ 1070 _____ 858 _____ 846 ________2774 NYC ______________________961 _____ 820 _____ 984 ________2765 PHL ______________________972 _____ 657 _____ 964 ________2593 PA / NY ___________________718 _____ 773 _____ 805 ________2296 TN Valley _________________ 808 _____ 662 _____ 700 ________2170 ___Normal ________________ 770 _____ 604 _____ 784 ________2158 ___ Consensus _____________734 _____ 620 _____ 782 ________2136 Southeast _________________ 628 _____ 513 _____ 828 ________1969 Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 666 _____ 667 _____ 532 ________1865 New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979
  13. Provisional scoring for May 2018 Most stations are running at or above our highest forecasts so if that trend is not reversed, the following order of scoring would be likely to persist, even if the totals go up or down for all forecasters. Scores are based on the latest provisionals posted above (previous post) and the scoring table is adjusted whenever those change. Scores in red at this point are for those very few forecasts higher than provisional values (to make it faster for editing later). High scores are in bold type. Since late penalties are small (1-2 pts) I have just incorporated them directly into the scoring for now. The station scores are pre-penalty and the various subtotals and grand totals from those subtotals are post-penalty (this is why the scores for various late entrants don't quite add up). I will probably have to wait until early June to make decisions about two issues, high scores and boosted scores for ATL possibly. The old policy was to award high scores to both occasional and regular contest entrants but with this being May it's possible that afewU-bn will become a regular. His score is also blocking a boost of ATL scores to minimum progression, same issue in previous cases later into the forecast season. So you may see higher scores appearing for ATL even if the anomaly there exceeds 5.0. FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA___west___ TOTALS Roger Smith ___ C + W___________72 _ 88 _ 80 ___ 240 ___ 70 _ 70 _ 86 ___ 226 __ 466 __80 _ 94 _ 48 __ 222 ___ 688 afewUniverses bn __MA __________80 _ 90 _ 96 ___266 ___ 60 _ 80 _ 80 ___ 220 __486 __80 _100_ 10 __ 190 ___ 676 DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________60 _ 82 _ 94 ___ 236 ___ 76 _ 36 _ 36 ___ 148 __ 384 __60 _ 76 _ 52 __ 188 ___ 572 so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_36 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 169 ___ 56 _ 54 _ 74 ___ 181 __ 350 __68 _ 94 _ 10 __ 169 ___ 519 BKViking ______ NYC ____________ 40 _ 64 _ 76 ___ 180 ___ 40 _ 64 _ 50 ___ 154 __ 334 __60 _ 76 _ 46 __ 182 ___ 516 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________32 _ 56 _ 64 ___ 152 ___ 42 _ 52 _ 68 ___ 162 __ 314 __58 _ 98 _ 22 __ 178 ___ 492 wxallannj _______ NYC ___________44 _ 76 _ 74 ___ 194 ___ 64 _ 30 _ 36 ___ 130 __ 324 __56 _ 76 _ 14 __ 146 ___ 470 ___ Consensus __________________40 _ 56 _ 70 ___ 166 ___ 46 _ 52 _ 48 ___ 146 __ 312 __56 _ 80 _ 20 __ 156 ___ 468 RodneyS ________ MA ___________ 30 _ 42 _ 70 ___ 142 ___ 14 _ 20 _ 44 ___ 078 __ 220 __80 _ 92 _72__ 244 ___ 464 jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ 42 _ 66 _ 62 ___ 170 ___ 58 _ 66 _ 48 ___ 172 __ 342 __32 _ 74 _ 14 __ 120 ___ 462 Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____42 _ 50 _ 66 ___ 154 ___ 36 _ 72 _ 48 ___ 152 __ 306 __34 _100_24 __ 153 ___ 459 Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____50 _ 62 _ 84 ___ 192 ___ 42 _ 42 _ 46 ___ 127 __ 319 __56 _ 78 _ 04 __ 135 ___ 454 dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________20 _ 30 _ 50 ___ 100 ___ 50 _ 50 _ 80 ___ 180 __ 280 __20 _ 80 _ 40 __ 140 ___ 420 wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____42 _ 52 _ 86 ___ 178 ___ 38 _ 36 _ 52 ___ 125 __ 303 __46 _ 56 _ 14 __ 115 ___ 418 Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________20 _ 30 _ 50 ___ 100 ___ 30 _ 50 _ 50 ___ 130 __ 230 __60 _ 90 _ 30 __ 180 ___ 410 RJay __________ NYC ____________30 _ 50 _ 60 ___ 140 ___ 30 _ 30 _ 30 ___ 090 __ 230 __30 _ 90 _ 20 __ 140 ___ 370 Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________40 _ 50 _ 54 ___ 144 ___ 50 _ 64 _ 40 ___ 154 __ 298 __18 _ 38 _ 00 __ 056 ___ 354 mappy _________ MA ____________32 _ 40 _ 44 ___ 116 ___ 46 _ 60 _ 36 ___ 142 __ 258 __22 _ 54 _ 00 __ 076 ___ 334 Normal ________________________ 00 _ 20 _ 40 ___ 060 ___ 20 _ 20 _ 30 ___ 070 __ 130 __40 _ 60 _ 20 __ 120 ___ 250 Regional Rumble Provisional Scoring Region _________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTALS Mid-Atlantic ________ 266 ________ 220 ________ 244 ________ 730 Central + Western ___240 ________ 226 ________ 222 ________ 688 New York City ______ 236 ________ 180 ________ 188 ________ 604 PA/NY ____________169 _________ 181 ________ 169 ________ 519 Philadelphia _______ 192 _________ 130 ________ 180 ________ 502 ___ Consensus _____166 _________ 146 ________ 156 ________ 468 TN Valley _________ 170 _________ 172 ________ 120 ________ 462 Southeast _________ 154 _________152 ________ 153 ________ 459 Great Lakes / OV ___ 144 _________ 154 ________ 056 ________ 354 Normal ___________ 060 _________ 070 ________ 120 ________ 250 ________________________________________________________________________________________ (without the help of afewU-bn, MA scored 564)
  14. What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you foresee? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). Last year the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 4th as we often seem to be getting entries past the season's June 1st starting point. I will try to expand the field by publicizing the contest in regional forums this year. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, but if there is an outcome (GFS keeps showing a late May hurricane in the eastern Gulf) earlier forecasts that are backed up by monthly predictions will be adjusted if it appears that the May storm is not anticipated. Seasonals that have no complete monthly component will be left unadjusted as it could be assumed that the May storm is included. Last year, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise them by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. Since most of the seasonal forecasts were the sum of the monthly predictions, I assumed that any May activity could be factored in. Some past years, we have had to deal with even earlier storms that happened before the contest announcement (January, April). I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 21 16 7 ____ (Jun) 2 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 2 __ (Sep) 7 5 3 __ (Oct) 5 4 2 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 1 0 (this assumes a 1 1 0 May, would be adjusted to 20 15 7 if 0 0 0 or 21 15 7 if 1 0 0) Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set will earn 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month. As you see, I am expecting a very active season. There seems to be no particular reason why the outcome from 2017 would change very much this year, hopefully the majors will stay out to sea more often and avoid the sorts of landfalls that caused so much devastation in 2017.
  15. Update on the anomaly tracker ... seasonal max contest table of entries posted so the first edition of this is back in the thread, will be adding the presumed final report on snowfall contest to that post next (later today) so check back if it isn't there when you read this. _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ notes _8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7 15th ______ (14 d) ______ +7.9_ +5.9 _ +4.8 ___ +6.6 _+5.5_ +3.0 ___ +4.5_ +2.6 _+6.8 ___ ** compares to ** below 22nd ______ (21 d) ______ +6.7_ +4.3 _ +4.2 ___ +4.1 _+5.1_ +3.3 ___ +3.1_ +2.1 _+5.9 ___ ## compares to ## below _8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0 _ +0.5 _+4.0 ___ ** actuals above at ** 15th _____( p21st NWS) __+6.6_ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.2 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +4.0 _ +2.5 _+5.7 ___ ## actuals above at ## 22nd_____( p28th NWS) __+6.0_ +4.4 _ +4.0 ___ +4.5 _+4.5_ +3.7 ___ +3.5 _ +1.8 _+4.7 _8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 15th _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _+4.0 22nd _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+4.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _+4.0 _____________________ 15th _ The past week forecasts proved a little warm for parts of the northeast and Great Lakes as it actually turned very cool for two days, while for SEA the opposite occurred, warmth was predicted but record heat developed in the past two days, and combined that likely accounts for the larger errors but overall the accuracy of NWS estimates was fairly good at other locations, the overall average error was 1.34 deg. (0.5 for the best five). My longer term estimates (bottom row) take the p21d NWS values and assume half-strength continued warming at most locations since the patterns don't appear to change very much, continued similar for southeast to Gulf, so I feel that these end of month estimates are more likely to err on the conservative side. As all nine are still warmer than almost all forecasts, could be a green light for early provisional scoring. 22nd _ This past week, NWS forecasts averaged an excellent 0.43 deg average error. The end of month projections all remain the same except for ATL which now appears closer to our forecast range so that gives all forecasters a boost of about 20 points. ________________________________________________________________
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