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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
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    Male
  • Location:
    New Denver BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    I just added 12" at BWI-IAD, 8" at DCA and 4" at RIC, which is the over-under on what I expect this pattern to produce now to end of contest. That gives the following top six: 1. Shadowzone ___ 6.1" 2. BTRwxT-G _____8.2" 2. Prestige ww ___ 8.2" 4. NorthBaltiZen __ 8.4" 5. Mappy ________ 8.6" 6. wxwatch007 ___ 9.9" The maximum that could conceivably be added might be 20" at BWI-IAD, 15" at DCA and 8" at RIC. That gives this top six finish: 1. OnceinaLifetime2009 ____ 12.0" 2. southMDwatcher ________12.1" 3. budice2002 ____________ 13.0" 4. Roger Smith ___________ 13.1" 5. Jakkelwx ______________ 13.6" 6. High Stakes ____________13.8" Half way from the over-under to the extreme, it's Cobalt in the lead but mostly the same leaders as above. So there's a group around 30th to 40th place now who could do quite well with perhaps one big storm or two moderate ones and a few minor top ups. Let's say there's just one more event and it goes south, so I add 2" to the northern three and 12" to RIC, then this is the outcome: 1. stormPC _____________ 14.2" 2. Grothar in Herndon ____ 16.3" 3. Prince Frederick wx ____ 16.5" 4. weather53 ___________ 20.7" 5. Chris78 ______________21.0" 6. RodneyS _____________22.3" __________________________________________________ How about an oddball event that nails IAD and is skimpy at BWI? Adding 2" at BWI, 4" at DCA, 8" at IAD and 2" at RIC gives this outcome: 1. NorthArlington101 ____ 12.1" 2. winterwxluvr ________ 12.8" 3. wxwatcher007 _______ 13.7" 4. millvillewx ___________14.0" 5. Yoda _______________14.4" 6. gopper _____________ 14.7" ______________________________________________________
  2. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Just finished, Mr President, no foreign interference found anywhere. My list is back on January 14th, since you've posted the entire list, I won't bother moving it to this page but it has pretty colors to look at. By the way, LYH added 3.2" and is at 19.6" now. SBY was still missing as of last check, did it snow over there? They were at 5.0" before this event. All kidding aside, just one big storm and this whole exercise becomes academic.
  3. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Have updated the files back on page five that give the overview against RIC and DCA actuals. Working on the list of snowfall required, as we have the full list now from Prince Fred wx, I am checking it against that, so far down to 15th place and it all matches up. Will go faster now that I am past most of the adding on type errors, down to the thundering herd of reducing errors. But will we find that distant watering hole? Coach Belichek says yes, the secondary looks tired and this play should work Tom ... and Tom says yeah, I can do this. (on three, KU wide right cut to the left sidelines).
  4. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    We're just going into the fourth quarter, and Belichek is whispering stuff in Tom Brady's ear, and he's smiling that smile. Current leaders, enjoy what little time you have left.
  5. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Looks like it was a mere 0.1" for RIC ... will update my tables for all locations back in the thread later Thursday.
  6. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    LSE and GRB have now become 6th and 7th locations to surpass contest normal snowfalls. MSP will join them after its next snowfall event. Good locations to have surplus snow in your forecast would seem to be APN, GRB, MSP, LSE, MQT and YYZ. The contest is getting very close now in terms of projected total errors. If I assume that each location will add 20% to its current total, then the order would be considerably altered from the current contest order. These are the total "locked in" errors that you have to date (where your forecast already exceeded by actual snow, sum of red numbers in the tables). But it all depends on where you have the snow available to use up, if most of it is CLE and YXU, then everyone else has similar totals there. This list shows the total locked in errors, amounts left to use up, and total amount left to use up at APN+MQT+GRB+LSE+YYZ+MSP which are still in play for some. vpbob21 ___ 31.2" (has 210.8" left at 16 locations). ... 47.7" at the six (APN etc) Roger Smith_32.2" (has 271.7" left at 17 locations). ... 84.2" at the six (APN etc) slowpoke ___36.6" (has 129.6" left at 14 locations). ... 10.2" at two of the six (APN etc) cyclone77 __ 39.9" (has 151.9" left at 13 locations). ... 15.3" at APN only madwx ____ 43.2" (has 174.1" left at 12 locations). ... 17.8" at two of the six dmc76 _____48.4" (has 306.3" left at 16 locations). ... 29.1" mostly at YYZ DAFF ______ 58.8" (has 107.8" left at 10 locations). ... 0.3" at APN Miss. snow __59.9" (has 174.3" left at 13 locations). ... 48.2" at four of the six. DonSutherland 88.5" (has 314.6" left at 15 locations). ... 12.9" at APN and YYZ Stebo ______ 96.9" (has 177.9" left at 10 locations). ... 9.2" at MQT and YYZ jackstraw __105.7" (has 211.7" left at 11 locations). ... 2.7" at YYZ ______________________________________________________________ It seems very likely that all (perhaps most for YYZ) of those six-location totals will come off the total errors so with my total of 84.2" coming off, it means you will be trading at double the differential of your total (applied to current differentials) so that only looks good for vpbob21 and Mississauga Snow who will lose about 80" but are ahead by more than that now. I can catch just about anyone else ahead of me on these stations. However, this does not factor in when MKE, DTW or perhaps CMH flip to accumulating errors, I don't have anything left at MKE. So there's one scenario, if it snows heavily across the north and not much in places where I'm behind, such as ORD, then I have a chance. You can look over the errors and see what's your best bet for a high finish. I don't think there's any point in looking at CLE or YXU, they aren't going to reach anybody's forecasts (so your errors there in relative terms will not change). MLI is used up for all forecasters and PIA soon will be (vpbob21 has a bit more to use there, an advantage of about 12").
  7. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

    Yeah it will be there by tomorrow, won't be much (0.4" or so )
  8. The best storm of the winter will probably come around 10th to 15th of March. Just a hunch based on the pattern we have now translating into a deeper mid-continent trough once it finally shifts away from the west coast. Although there's currently lots of cold air in good places to your north, that other feature of arctic air diving south into Arizona and New Mexico is bound to produce lows heading northeast from Texas. Like the current one, the best they can do is give a front-end thump. Get one of these fat boys to form further east and head up the east coast, and you've got yourselves a HECS. Thinking March will deliver that potential.
  9. Roger Smith

    February 19-21 snowfall contest

    I decided to go up a bit, looks like it should start at coldest time of diurnal cycle which may give it a boost. If only this would all swing south, watch BTV rack up another 15-20 inches. They have had so much snow around Montreal and southern Quebec, roofs are collapsing all over the province.
  10. Roger Smith

    Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

    MLI -- the CAR of the Midwest.
  11. Roger Smith

    February 19-21 snowfall contest

    My forecast is a bit of a placeholder based on a quick look yesterday for that other contest (which Herb mentioned, it's cancelled which may tell us something). I may up those figures but looking at the guidance now, looks like a long-term 33 degree rainer once it gets the bit of snow out of its column.
  12. Roger Smith

    February 19-21 snowfall contest

    Only if BTV is in the contest. Thanks for the reach out, I didn't know this contest was happening and would have missed it. Going to give this some serious analytical insight, how much front end thumpage ahead of the miserable 52 degree fogfest? Second and final call ... BWI 4.8" IAD 5.4" DCA 2.8" RIC 0.4" tiebreaker 1.25"
  13. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    ORD is now our fourth location to surpass the contest normal value. GRB missed out and remains just below, as does YYZ until perhaps data for 18th ... confirmed, YYZ is the fifth location to pass contest normal. LSE has increased its total to the point where most forecasters are now accumulating errors there, although still not at the seasonal average. MKE is closing in on that range. In general there has now been about 10% more snowfall than normal across the grid, considering what stage of the season normally shows 82% (closer to Feb 24th than 17th). Nobody has much to worry about (yet) at YXU or CLE. From there towards DTW and FWA, even IND, snowfall totals have been rather low this winter. Relative to normal, it picks up further west and even south into Kentucky.
  14. Provisional scoring for February 2019 For ATL and PHX, scoring is based on adjusted rank order as no raw scores exceed 60 on current provisionals. However, for IAH one adjusted score was lower than raw score of 20 so that one remained at 20. For SEA, the normal scoring for an anomaly greater than 5 produces raw scores as high as 64 so no adjustments here, would need to finish --6.5 or lower to get into that range and this would narrow the scoring differential after two highest scores. ... scores in orange type are pre-penalty for two forecasters. Scores in red or blue are warmest or coldest forecasts (after penalties) and scores in bold, including some of those, are high scores. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL (all nine) RodneyS __________________ 84 _ 84 _ 62 __ 230 __ 98_ 54 _ 64 __ 216__ 446 __ 56 _ 30 _ 16 __ 102 ____ 548 ___ Stebo _________________90 _ 88 _ 60 __ 238 __ 70 _ 30 _ 44 __ 144 __ 382 __ 86 _ 60 _ 24 __ 170 _ 552 Stebo ____ (-3%) __________ 87 _ 85 _ 58 __ 230 __ 68 _ 30 _ 43 __ 141 __ 371 __ 83_ 58 _ 23 __ 164 ____ 535 Roger Smith _______________74 _ 66 _100__ 240__ 64 _ 60_ 90 __ 214 __454 __ 20 _ 00 _ 60 __ 080 ____ 534 wxallannj __________________84 _ 88_ 54 __ 226 __ 84 _ 48 _ 40 __ 172 __ 398 __ 46 _ 24 _ 00 __ 070 ____ 468 DonSutherland.1 ____________80 _ 60 _ 34 __ 174 __ 62 _ 36 _ 22 __ 120 __ 294 __ 60 _ 48 _ 64 __172____ 466 hudsonvalley21 _____________60 _ 78 _ 42 __ 180 __ 90 _ 42 _ 20 __ 152 __ 332 __ 56 _ 42 _ 12 __ 110 ____ 442 ___ Consensus _____________ 76 _ 78 _ 46 __ 200 __ 76 _ 30 _ 32 __ 138 __ 338 __ 56 _ 30 _ 10 __ 096 ____ 434 wxdude64 _________________ 70 _ 76 _ 46 __ 192 __ 70 _ 30 _ 32 __ 132 __ 324 __ 78 _ 18 _ 00 __ 096 ____ 420 BKViking __________________ 72 _ 84 _ 60 __ 216 __ 76 _ 12 _ 38 __ 126 __ 342 __ 70 _ 06 _ 00 __ 076 ____ 418 Scotty Lightning ____________ 76 _ 74 _ 40 __ 190 __ 96 _ 20 _ 30 __ 146 __ 336 __ 30 _ 12 _ 05 __ 047 ____ 383 ___ Normal ________________ 56 _ 64 _ 40 __ 160 __ 96 _ 10 _ 10 __ 116 __ 276 __ 50 _ 44 _ 00 __ 094 ____ 370 ___ RJay __________________ 36 _ 44 _ 20 __ 100 __ 76 _ 00 _ 20 __ 096 __ 196 __ 70 _ 54 _ 10 __ 134 _ 330 RJay _____ (-3%) ___________35 _ 43 _ 19 __ 097 __ 74 _ 00 _ 19 __ 093 __ 190 __ 68 _ 52 _ 10 __ 130 ____ 320 Tom ______________________46 _ 54 _ 28 __ 128 __ 74 _ 06 _ 12 __ 092 __ 220 __ 44 _ 36 _ 00 __ 080 ____ 300 _______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts Eight of the nine locations may qualify, ORD scores are scattered around consensus at this point. DCA __ at +2.2, would be a win for Stebo (+1.7) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.5) ... win for RS at +2.6 or higher NYC __ at +1.8, would be a win for wxallannj (+1.2) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.5) ... win for RS at +2.4 or higher BOS __ at +3.0, would be a win for Roger Smith (+3.0). ATL __ at +5.0, would be a win for Roger Smith (+2.5). IAH __ at +4.5, would be a win for Roger Smith (+4.0). DEN __ at --2.5, would be a win for Stebo (-1.8). PHX __ at --4.5, would be a win for Stebo (-1.8). SEA __ at --6.0, would be a win for DonSutherland.1 (--3.7).
  15. Roger Smith

    2018-2019 Great Lakes / Ohio Valley snowfall contest

    As you may have noticed, I posted the contest standings in order recently (previous post) and it looks like we're entering a volatile phase of the contest now. The numbers of stations with at least one forecast passed by reality of 2018-19 snowfall has increased with this past event to ten out of the twenty. For quite a while, we were holding at three (MLI, PIA, STL). Then ORD and MSP joined the list a couple of events back. More recent additions are APN, LSE, MQT, GRB and YYZ. We all went quite high on CLE and YXU, those two snow belt areas have been a general dud this winter, while the Lake Michigan snow belt (GRR) has done a bit better (both from lake effect and synoptic scale snow) and our forecasts are already not way too high there on average. Our current leader DAFF has been approaching the red zone (accumulating errors) at quite a few locations recently and may come under some pressure from slowpoke and cyclone77 who are both about 30 inches behind in total departures. Cyclone77 has a big advantage for APN where his forecast can absorb another 25". Anyone further back is going to need to see large additions to various locations where they have some excess capacity. When you look at the table, and compare to any other forecaster, you only have a potential advantage for any stations where your black numbers are larger than theirs. If you have similar numbers, you have no advantage. If you have red numbers of any size, same story (you'll both be adding errors at the same pace). A black minus red differential can be black-doubled to establish advantage (example, I am in the red by 0.5 at ORD, DonS has 14.5 left in his account, so his advantage is 29, as for the next 14.5" he will be decreasing his error total and I will be increasing on mine. ... the size of my red number plays no role, just the black number doubled is in play in those situations.) I think anyone can still win this depending on where the rest of the snow actually falls. However, you don't want to be accumulating at MQT which has a higher ratio of percentage errors to total errors. Later in the contest I will calculate other scoring metrics such as ranks for station errors and average percentage error. Last year we found these were somewhat different from the principal method of total accumulated error. Good luck and remember, April can be very snowy as we saw a couple of years ago (or was it three, time flies).
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