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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. BWI _ 10/09 IAD _ 10/09 DCA _ 10/16 RIC __ 10/22 max DCA 74F Oct looks near-record cold from latest guidance.
  2. Table of forecasts for October 2022 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 _______________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +0.1 RJay __________________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 BKViking ______________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.2 __+1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.4 __ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 so_whats_happening __________+0.7 _ +0.4 __0.0 __ +1.4 _-0.5 _ +0.4 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +2.5 wxdude64 ____________________ +0.5 _ +0.5 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ Consensus ________________ +0.4 _ +0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.0 _ +0.4 _+0.8 __ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 DonSutherland1 _______________+0.3 _ +0.4 _+0.3 __ +1.2 _+0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 wxallannj _____________________ +0.2 _ -0.5 _-0.9 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ Normal _____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.2 _ -0.3 _ -0.3 __ +0.3 _ -0.6 _ +0.6 __ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 Roger Smith __________________ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ +0.2 __ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.8 RodneyS ______________________ -1.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.9 ____ 0.0 _-1.5 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ -0.1 __+1.5 Stormchaser Chuck! __ (-1%) __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -3.0 ___-3.0 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 __ -0.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 ________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for SEA (+0.1 lowest among forecasters).
  3. If you scroll back to the post before the scoring updates, you'll find the final scoring results for the 2022 Seasonal Max contest. Congrats RJay who won with a total of just 11 error points for the nine locations.
  4. ===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Sep 2022) _____________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. Despite fairly close scoring in September, RodneyS managed to move into third place ahead of so_whats_happening who is now fourth, and RodneyS also passed Consensus which is now a rank lower (between third and fourth). Hudsonvalley21 moves into fifth ahead of wxallannj who is now sixth; BKViking moved closer to the sixth position but remains seventh. Normal remains between 10th and 11th and Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score has dropped from equivalent to 8th to 10th (still ahead of me but now also behind Normal). FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________633 _657 _647 __1937 __649 _679_ 548__1876_3813 __606 _716 _577 __1899 ____5712 DonSutherland1 ________ 718 _664 _624__2006__678 _610 _472__1760 _3766 __522 _746 _650 __1918 ____5684 RodneyS ________________ 654 _592 _558__1804__534 _720 _566__1820 _3624 __690 _732 _622__2044____5668 ___ Consensus ___________642 _646 _598 __1886__622 _652 _504__1778 _3664__632 _722 _627 __1981 ____5645 so_whats_happening ____610 _630 _634__1874__621 _654_ 504__1779 _ 3653 __ 588 _712 _670 __1970 ____5623 Tom _____________________ 635 _653 _573 __1861__622 _631 _615__1868 _3729 __643 _619 _530 __ 1792 ____5521 hudsonvalley21 __________606 _650 _612 __1868__594 _612 _494__1700 _3568__576 _708 _562 __ 1846 ____5414 wxallannj ________________558 _578 _552 __1688 __576 _560 _506__1642 _3330 __686 _690 _662 __2038____5368 BKViking ________________ 632 _640 _578 __1850__554 _588 _458__1600 _3450 __650 _658 _598 __1906 ____5356 RJay _____________________588 _652 _636 __1876__569 _602 _460__1631 _3507 __620 _564 _565 __1749 ____5256 Scotty Lightning _________632 _620 _582 __1834 __568 _596 _524__1688 _3522 __548 _686 _484__1718____5240 _____ Normal _____________662 _596 _532 __1790 __562 _628 _516 __1706 _ 3496 __502 _610 _512__1624____5120 Roger Smith _____________ 540 _488 _366 __1394 __476 _500 _466 __1442 _2836 __668 _692 _657__2017____4853 Stormchaser Chuck (6/9)_360 _400 _389 __1149 __350 _ 438 _282 _1070 _2219 __380 _461 _291 __1132____3351 __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5026 total points. ========================================= __ Best Forecasts __ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May RodneyS _________________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 2___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ____ 1 __ Sep ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2 ____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 4 ____ 2 __Jun, Aug Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked. (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 59 of 81 forecasts qualify, 25 warmest and 34 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 __ 16-5 (14-5) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 ___10-2 (8.0 -2) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0 __ 9-1 Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- __ 6-1 (4.25 - 1) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _ 5-0 (3.5 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- __ 3-0 (2.5 - 0) hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- __3-2 (2.0 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- __ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)
  5. I wasn't thinking of that, but what's happening with the first frost contest?
  6. This reminds me of Charley (2004) in terms of quickly changing track shifting east (and therefore landfall south). I can remember talk about Tampa Bay being the landfall quite close to the final 12-18 hour tracking of Charley. Then it shifted to a landfall at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. A few days ago this was heading for Cedar Key if I recall, now it may not even make it to Sarasota before landfall. There are good things about this, a full storm surge and strongest cat-3 wind gusts in Tampa Bay would be a lot worse than a backside impact there. But all regions of west Florida need to be on high alert of course.
  7. Predict the anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) in F deg for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline is 06z Saturday 1st of October.
  8. I can't see these values being exceeded now, so this is probably the contest wrap ... Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ Errors to date ____ TOTALS _01 __LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 2 _02 __WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 3 _03 __tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 5 _04 __87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 6 _05 __Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 6 __ tiebreaker 04/05 is 1st higher dep _06 __GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 _07 __Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 06/07 is order of entry _08 __NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 _______ 2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 07/08 is 1st higher dep _09 __biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 08/09 is order of entry _10 __WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 09/10 is order of entry _11 __toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 8 _12 __nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 9 _13 __peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 9 __ tiebreaker 12/13 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2) _14 __CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 ________ 9 __ tiebreaker 13/14 is 1st higher dep _15 __HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 10 _16 __Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 15/16 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2) _17 __WxUSAF __ (27) __________ 100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 16/17 is order of entry _18 __RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 11 _19 __nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 5 _______ 11 __ tiebreaker 18/19 is 1st higher dep _ 20 __Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9 _____ 1.4 _ 3.5 _2.3 _3.9 ______ 11.1 _20 __yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 ______ 12 _21 __Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4 ______ 13 _22 __StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 14 _23 __wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 6 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 22/23 is 1st higher dep _24 __mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 6 _ 3 _ 4 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 23/24 is 2nd higher dep (4 vs 3) _25 __PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 5 ______ 16 _26 __Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 _____ 5 _ 9 _ 6 _ 9 ______ 29 _27 __George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 ______ 9 _12 _11 _12 ______ 44 ____________________________________ Tiebreaker info relates to the entry above, explaining why the entry with the note is ranked below that one. In one case a rank is a combination of two different tie breakers relating to entries above then below _________________ ____________________ Congrats to LittleVillageWx with a one-point win over WinterWxLuvr (will keep an eye on temps just in case but I don't foresee this changing)
  9. Now at 9/3/1, Ian forecast to change this to 9/4/2 eventually. That is if Gaston and Hermine die out as TS.
  10. I would say you will have the center passing very close to you around 3 hours from now let's say 0830z. I estimate it is just east of Canso NS at this time, heading NNW. There's going to be a nasty storm surge at Louisbourg which faces southeast.
  11. Final scores for September 2022 These scores are based on end of month anomalies listed in the previous post above. . FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS RodneyS ______________________86 _ 80 _ 66 __ 232 __ 88 _ 94_ 84 __ 266__ 498 __ 78 _ 78 _ 76 __ 232 ____ 730 DonSutherland1 ______________ 84 _ 76 _ 52 __ 212 __ 98 _ 70 _100 __ 268__ 480 __ 42 _ 98 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 712 wxdude64 ____________________80 _ 76 _ 58 __ 214 __ 94 _ 90 _ 92 __ 276 __ 490 __ 50 _ 84 _ 84 __ 218 ____ 708 ___ Normal ____________________94 _ 94 _ 92__ 280 __ 78 _ 94 _ 96 __ 268__ 548 __ 16 _ 62 _ 56 __ 134 ____ 682 ___ Consensus _______________ 68 _ 62 _ 48 __ 178 __ 98 _ 82 _ 96 __ 276 __ 454 __ 48 _ 86 _ 88 __ 222 ____ 676 so_whats_happening _________78 _ 76 _ 50 __ 204 __ 88 _ 80 _ 92 __ 260 __ 464 __ 40 _ 76 _ 94__ 210 ____ 674 Scotty Lightning ______________86 _ 86 _72 __ 244 __ 98 _ 64 _ 74 __ 236 __ 480 __ 36 _ 92 _ 64 __192 ____ 672 BKViking _____________________ 66 _ 62 _ 48 __ 176 __ 98 _ 92 _ 78 __ 268 __ 444 __ 54 _ 76 _ 84 __ 214 ____ 658 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 72 _ 64 _ 42 __ 178 __ 92 _ 88 _ 86 __ 266 __ 444 __ 54 _ 88 _ 60 __ 202 ____ 646 Roger Smith __________________66 _ 56 _ 32 __ 154 __ 72 _ 64 _ 88 __ 224 __ 378 __ 86 _ 92 _ 84 __ 262 ____ 640 Tom _________________________ 64 _ 66 _ 50 __ 180 __100 _ 86 _ 92 __ 278 __ 458 __ 44 _ 72 _ 58 __ 174 ____ 632 RJay __________________________52 _ 46 _ 48 __ 146 __ 92 _ 86 _ 66 __ 244 __ 390 __ 46 _ 72 _ 76 __ 194 ____ 584 wxallannj _____________________ 50 _ 46 _ 28 __ 124 __ 86 _ 42 _ 76 __ 204 __ 328 __ 40 _ 86 _ 96 __ 222 ____ 550 Stormchaser Chuck __________ 26 _ 26 _ 22 __ 074 __ 52 _ 24 _ 34 __ 110 ___ 184 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36__ 200 ____ 384 _______________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS _ Scotty Lightning takes three wins here, tied with RodneyS for DCA, and Normal also has three wins. ORD did not qualify as highest scores were near consensus. ATL did not qualify as third coldest forecast had high score. IAH also did not qualify as highest scores were near consensus. DEN is a win for Roger Smith with warmest forecast. PHX did not qualify with third warmest forecast at high score. SEA did not qualify with fifth warmest forecast at high score.
  12. Well hands up if you thought we would be at 6/3/0 after the median peak of the season. Okay Ed you can put your hand down now. Going back, the least productive seasons of the past 170 years include these: * 2014 (8/6/2) and 2009 (9/3/2) have the lowest storm counts since 1997. (Numerous other years had only 2 majors though) * 2013 (14/2/0) has the lowest H count since 1914 (tied with 1982, 1930, 1919 and 1917) and is most recent year to have no majors. * 1997 (8/3/1) is tied with 2014 for low storm count and with 2009 for second lowest H count. * 1994 (7/3/0) is tied with 1997 and 2009 for second lowest H count and is the second most recent year to register no major hurricanes. * 1993 also a low count season (8/4/1) although 1994 was one lower for each element. * 1992 (7/4/1) tied 1994 for low storm count, Andrew however made it a more notable season. * 1987 (7/3/1) is tied with 1992 and 1994 for low storm count, and with 1994, 1997, 2009 for second lowest H count. * 1986 (6/4/0) had the least named storms after 1983 and is tied with 1994, 2013 for no major hurricanes. * 1983 (4/3/1) set a low storm count since 1930 and is tied with 1987, 1994, 1997 and 2009 for second lowest H count. * 1982 (6/2/1) had the fewest hurricanes since 1914 (tied 1917, 1919, 1930 and 2013). * 1946 (7/3/0) was a rather weak season, but zero major hurricanes occurred several times between 1946 and 1986. * 1930 (3/2/2) set a low storm count and a low H count (later tied in 1982 and 2013) since 1914 * 1917 and 1919 also had only 2 H, back that far the non-identification factor has to be considered though. * 1914 (1/0/0) set records for low counts in all departments. Before 1914 these were the lowest seasonal counts since 1850: * 1907 (5/0/0) tied 1914 for low H (zero M is fairly common in the early portions of the records) * 1857 was tied with 1868 (both 4/3/0) and also 1883 (4/3/2), 1884 (4/4/1) and 1890 (4/2/1) for the third lowest storm count with 1925 and 1983.
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