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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    INKAPABL OF EROR
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Burnaby, BC, Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. These amounts can still fall without changing the order of scoring (everyone would improve the same amount) ... MQT ___ 19.0" CLE ____ 11.5" FWA ____ 8.8" CMH ____ 6.3" IND _____6.3" PIA _____ 5.8" MSP ____ 4.9" STL _____ 4.8" PAH _____3.8" SDF _____ 3.3" ORD _____1.9" MLI _____ 0.4" (any snow at the other eight stations could already change the order) Of the above, probably MLI, ORD and MQT are the two most likely to achieve those amounts.
  2. As always, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals at DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA Deadline is 06z April 1st, penalties run at 1% every 2 hours late (to 18z Apr 2nd) and thereafter it would be 1% an hour. Good luck!
  3. EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (This will be edited later to include standings through January to March) DCA currently projected at +1.0 would be a win for wxdude64 (+0.5) score minus 4. Becomes a win for RodneyS (+1.8) and loss for wxdude64 if the finish is +1.1 or higher. NYC (-2.0) will probably be a win for low forecast wxdude64 at +0.5 with Normal also scoring a win. BOS (-3.0) will probably be a win for RodneyS at -0.5. ORD (+2.0) is currently not in play, 5th lowest forecast is high score. ATL (+3.0) is currently not in play, 9th lowest forecast is high score. IAH (+6.0) would need to finish +7.0 or higher to qualify, currently 5th highest forecast is high score. DEN (+8.0) looks like a win for Neckbeard93 whose guess of +8.3 is well above second place +6.6 from so_whats_happening. PHX (+5.0) will probably be a win for so_whats_happening at +3.3. SEA (-1.0) is currently well out of contention.
  4. How will the apparent carnage in March scoring leave the annual race? (In the eastern and central portion) ___ (In the western contest) __ (All nine) 1. RJay at 701 _________________ 1. RJay at 633 _________ 1. RJay at 1334 2. DonSutherland1 at 674_________2. Roger Smith at 620 ___2. DonS at 1231 3. Blazess556 at 596 ____________ 3. wxallannj at 603______ 3. Prestige at 1081 4. Prestige Worldwide at 538 _____ 4. sowhat's at 584_______4. blazes at 1057 5. RodneyS at 505_______________5. DonS at 557 ________ 5. wxallannj at 1044 6. Maxim at 506 ________________ 6. H2OTown at 555 _____ 6. ... ... Con at 1001 7. BKViking at 489 _______________7. Prestige at 543 ______ 6. RodneyS at 987 8. hudsonvalley21 at 471 _________ 8. . ... ... Con at 531 ___ 7. Maxim at 986 9. ... ... Consensus at 470 _________ 8. dmillz25 at 528 ______8. Roger at 978 9. DMillz25 at 448 ________________9. Tom at 527 _________9. dmillz25 at 976 10. SD at 447___________________ 10. Damage at 495 ______10. BKViking at 958 11. wxallannj at 441 _____________ 11. RodneyS at 482 _____ 11. Tom at 954 12. Tom at 427__________________12. Maxim at 480 _______t 12. hudsonv at 910 t 13. wxdude64 at 417 ____________13. BKViking at 469 _____t 12. Damage at 910 t 13. Stebo at 417 ________________14. Stebo at 465 _______ 14. sowhat's at 899 15. Damage in Tolland at 415 ______ 15. blazess556 at 461 ____ 15. H2OTown at 889 16. neckbeard93 at 391 ___________ 16 hudsonv at 439 ______ 16. SD at 869 17. Roger Smith at 358 ____________17. SD at 422 __________ 17. Stebo at 882 18. H2OTown_wx at 334 ___________18. wxdude64 at 415 ____ 18. wxdude64 at 832 19. so_whats_happening at 315 _____19. neckbeard93 at 285 __ 19. neckbeard at 676 (Normal 282, 372, 654) ranked 20th, 19th and 20th ... Neckbeard93 did not play January so in adjusted terms Normal is likely 20th in west also. (these standings will be adjusted as March scoring adjusted, more detailed scoring tables will appear later)
  5. ---- <<<< Updated standings for 2016-17 snowfall contest >>>> ---- These standings will be updated each day moving forward, when there is additional snowfall. The PAE segment indicates errors that can only increase, otherwise your total error is subject to decrease with future snowfalls. You want at least some more snow at all stations except those listed under locations for PAE. There you want no further snowfall to occur. FORECASTER __ Total error (inches) ___ PAE (portion already established) __ Locations for PAE Slow poke _______ 143.9 _______________17.8___________ DTW, GRB, LSE, MKE, YXU Buffalo weather __ 222.5 _______________ 28.8 _____________APN, GRB, LSE, MKE Ontario snow lover_230.5_______________ 26.1 _____________ GRR, GRB, LSE, YYZ mad_wx ________ 250.8 ________________ 8.5 _____________ GRB cyclone77 _______ 298.9 _______________ 10.3 _____________ GRB, LSE 1986-2015 avg ___311.2 ________________ 0.0 Toronto4 ________321.1 ________________3.5 ______________GRB Contest average __ 324.6 _______________ 2.4 _____________ GRB IWXwx __________351.2 _______________ 0.0 Stebo __________ 357.2 _______________ 26.7 _____________ GRB, LSE, MKE hawkeye_wx ____ 362.5 ________________ 3.1______________ GRB Kokomowx ______379.8 ________________ 0.0 Slimjim 101 _____ 380.9 ________________ 0.0 OHweather _____ 390.3 _________________0.0 DAFF __________ 393.8 ________________15.7 ______________GRB, LSE weatherbo ______ 408.1 ________________ 0.0 Confused kitten __ 437.8 ________________ 0.0 Roger Smith _____469.3 ________________ 8.1 _____________ GRB ____________________________________________________________________________ (ANALYSIS -- Slow poke leads Buffalo weather by 78.6" and Ontario snow lover by 86.6". All three have been passed by GRB and LSE so the outcome (among them at least) is not affected by further snow at these locations. Slow poke and Buffalo weather share MKE as an error accumulation site, Ontario snow lover can gain on both for another 4.4" -- the gain is double the amount, so if 4.4" falls there, and no other snow affecting the contest falls, Ontario snow lover would edge ahead of Buffalo weather by 0.8". Further snow at MKE would be irrelevant to the contest results (among these three). Beyond those dynamics, Slow poke loses ground with further snow at DTW and YXU, where Buffalo weather has 8.5" and 13.1" left to use up, so if that happened, the lead would shrink from 78.6" to 35.4", while for Ontario snow lover the ifgures are 13.2" and 40.3", probably cannot be totally used up, but needs a total of 43" at these two within those bounds to catch up. Now also, Buffalo weather loses ground with further snow at APN, but Slow poke has only 1.5" left before this neutralizes, and Ontario snow lover has 6.5" or 5" against the leader. Those are likely to happen so we could assume that the real lead is respectively (ignoring all other considerations, that means really 76.6 over Ontario snow lover and 81.6 over Buffalo weather.) As to all other stations where these three have not exhausted their forecasts yet, the main challenges that I see for Slow poke are at MQT and YYZ. At MQT, Slow poke has 19" left to "use up" and Buffalo weather has 23.7" but Ontario snow lover has 67" ... So Buffalo weather can only gain 9.4" there but Ontario snow lover can erase his deficit with 38" over top of the 19" or 57" more. At YYZ, however, Ontario snow lover is already on defense having used up his prediction, and slow poke has 2.9" to go (a further 5.8" gain is likely there) but Buffalo weather has 15.8 to go, so additions from 3.0 to 15.8 will count double for Buffalo weather. All things considered, slow poke looks fairly comfortable if MQT doesn't add a lot of new snow. Looking at fourth place mad_wx who has only passed forecast amount at GRB, there is a chance of catching the leader but it would require a substantial amount of new snow at stations mainly in Michigan and Ontario. I will revisit this if the dynamics of the scoring race change, if you're below fourth, you will need a lot of snow in just the right locations. It happened to some extent in April 2016 so the contest is far from "done" yet.
  6. Provisional scoring for March 2017 These scores are based on the provisional values end of month given in the table above. Scores will change when and if these provisionals change. Late penalties are shown only against the totals at this stage. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent_____ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________84 _ 38 _ 50 ___172 ___96 _ 68 _ 74 ___ 248 _____ 420 Tom ______________________ 78 _ 22 _ 06 ___ 106 ___ 96 _ 82 _ 40 ___ 218 _____ 324 SD ________________________80 _ 40 _ 20 ___ 140 ___ 80 _ 80 _ 20 ___ 180 _____ 320 DonSutherland.1 ____________ 70 _ 16 _ 06 ___ 092 ___ 88 _ 80 _ 22 ___ 190 _____ 282 Normal _____________________80 _ 60 _ 40 ___ 180 ___ 60 _ 40 _ 00 ___ 100 _____ 280 wxdude64 _________________ 90 _ 50 _ 30 ___ 170 ___ 50 _ 60 _ 10 ___ 120 _ 290 ___________ (-4%) _________ 86 _ 48_ 29 ___ 163 ___ 48 _ 58 _ 10 ___ 116 _____ 279 Neckbeard93 _______________ 24 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 024 ___ 98 _ 64 _ 88 ___250 _____ 274 Roger Smith ________________44 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 044 ___ 70 _ 66 _ 91 ___ 227 _____ 271 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 62 _ 04 _ 00 ___ 066 ___ 76 _ 94 _ 30 ___ 200 _____ 266 Consensus _________________ 42 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 042 ___ 68 _ 84 _ 70 ___ 222 _____ 264 dmillz25 ___________________ 30 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 030 ___ 80 _ 80 _ 50 ___ 210 _____ 240 wxallannj __________________ 56 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 056 ___ 22 _ 88 _ 74 ___ 184 _____ 240 Damage in Tolland ___________20 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 020 ___ 62 _100 _ 66 ___ 228 _ 248 _________ (-5%) ____________19 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 019 ___ 59 _ 95 _ 63 ___ 217 _____ 236 BKViking ___________________50 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 050 ___ 66 _ 80 _ 30 ___ 176 _____ 226 Stebo _____________________ 40 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 040 ___ 40 _ 80 _ 40 ___ 160 _____ 200 H2OTown__Wx _____________ 26 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 026 ___ 14 _ 64 _ 95 ___ 173 _____ 199 Rjay ______________________ 30 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 030 ___ 40 _ 60 _ 90 ___ 190 _ 220 _________ (-10%) __________ 27 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 027 ___ 36 _ 54 _ 81 ___ 171 _____ 198 blazess556 _________________ 36 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 036 ___ 38 _ 78 _ 44 ___ 160 _____ 196 so_whats_happening _________24 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 024 ___ 00 _ 48 _ 80 ___ 128 _____ 152 Maxim _____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 80 ___ 120 _____ 120 Prestige Worldwide __________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 ___ 02 _ 02 _ 82 ___ 086 _____ 086 Provisional scores for western and for all nine contests FORECASTER _____________ DEN_PHX_SEA _______ TOTAL _________ All nine (= rank) so_whats_happening _________86 _ 66 _ 72 _________224 ___________ 376 (=10) H2OTown__Wx _____________ 76 _ 44 _ 96 _________ 216 ___________ 415 (= 6t) wxallannj __________________ 74 _ 50 _ 92 _________ 216 ___________ 456 (= 4) Roger Smith ________________70 _ 50 _ 88 _________ 208 ___________ 479 (= 2) Prestige Worldwide __________ 72 _ 50 _ 58 _________ 180 ___________ 266 (=17t) Rjay ______________________ 70 _ 60 _ 60 __ 200 __________ (-10%) _________ 63 _ 54 _ 54 _________ 171 ___________ 369 (=11) Tom ______________________13 _ 36 _ 98 _________ 147 ____________ 471 (= 3) Neckbeard93 _______________97 _ 44 _ 00 _________ 141 ____________415 (= 6t) RodneyS __________________ 20 _ 50 _ 70 _________ 140 ____________ 560 (= 1) Maxim ____________________ 40 _ 20 _ 80 _________ 140 ____________ 260 (=19) dmillz25 ___________________20 _ 30 _ 90 _________ 140 ____________ 380 (= 9) Consensus _________________ 18 _ 30 _ 90 _________ 138 ____________ 402 (= 8) SD ________________________00 _ 20 _100_________ 120 ____________ 440 (= 5) Damage in Tolland __________ 15 _ 30 _ 80 __ 125 ______________ (-5%) ______ 14 _ 29 _ 76 _________ 119 ____________ 355 (=12) DonSutherland.1 ____________ 09 _ 28 _ 76 _________ 113 ____________ 395 (= 8) BKViking ___________________11 _ 00 _ 76 _________ 087 ____________ 313 (=15) hudsonvalley21 _____________ 08 _ 08 _ 68 _________ 084 ____________ 350 (=13) Normal ____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 80 _________ 080 ____________ 360 (=12) Stebo _____________________ 15 _ 00 _ 60 _________ 075 ____________ 275 (=16) blazess556 _________________ 14 _ 00 _ 56 _________ 070 ____________ 266 (=17t) wxdude64 __________________05 _ 00 _ 40 __ 055 ____________ (-4%) _________05 _ 00 _ 38 _________ 043 ____________ 322 (=14) ______________________________________________________________________________
  7. Apologies if this was posted earlier ... (from BGM NWS) ...ALL TIME 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL SET AT BINGHAMTON NY... A 24 HOUR RECORD SNOWFALL OCCURRED AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT FROM MARCH 14TH TO MARCH 15TH. A TOTAL OF 31.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL BETWEEN 3 AM ON THE 14TH TO 1 AM ON THE 15TH. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF 23 INCHES SET IN FEBRUARY 1961. OUR SEASONAL SNOWFALL NOW STANDS AT 127.7 INCHES WHICH IS 3.6 INCHES SHY OF THE 131.3 INCHES ALL TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL SET IN 1993-94. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO LAST WINTER WHERE ONLY 32 INCHES FELL FOR ENTIRE 2015-16 SNOW SEASON. THIS WAS A RECORD LOW SNOWFALL. NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT IS 83.4 INCHES. RECORDS AT THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT GO BACK TO 1951. -------------------------------------------------------- (end of NWS release, back to my thoughts ...) ----------- (4.1" additional on 15th, storm total so far 35.3" since 31.2 fell on 14th. add 4.0" to above seasonal total too). And with 30-40 inches on the ground in large parts of e NY, VT, 20-30 in hilly areas of w New England, would suggest that any opportunities for radiational cooling in entire region will max out ... could create record low temps whenever arctic air and clear skies present.
  8. Re the QPF issue, one place that received more than models depicted (or same) was ACY, they had a storm total of 3.22" all rain (trace snow). For the record, obs show 976 low about to emerge into Mass Bay south of BOS, based on reports from offshore buoys earlier I would expect very strong SW winds to develop in about 2 hours across Cape and parts of southeast MA. Next landfall appears to be somewhere near Mount Desert Island around 06z. Winds over coastal ME and NH (and extreme ne MA) will probably back steadily to NW 30-50 mph and snow bands will begin to wrap around to some extent. So for the Maine poster who was wondering about further snow, I think what this means is about 4-8 inches more around Portland, less than that from there to NH border, 8-12 more around Bath to Bangor. Those might be a bit generous, could be minor taint. I think the storm has almost peaked in terms of further pressure drops, but could reach 974 at some point before leaving the Gulf of Maine. Some weakening will follow as a secondary low still on the front begins to sap energy late tonight.
  9. Low appears to be close to 980 mbs south of Long Island between buoys 44025 and 44066. Still seems to be tracking towards a landfall around Fall River or New Bedford and into Mass Bay. A secondary low seems to have formed further south, not sure if this may complicate the wind forecast, if not, expect severe gusts in se MA and possibly parts of RI this evening.
  10. Offshore buoys all gusting near or above 50 knots, wind backing at 44066, pressure falls on the order of 13 mb per 3h. The center now appears to be about 986 mb located 100 nm e.s.e. ACY tracking northeast, should pass close to 44066 at about 15z. Link is here for this and other nearby buoys south of Long Island and east of the Hudson. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066 (Long Island buoy south of Islip) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025
  11. Here's my take, might be somewhat different or maybe not ... Low is deepening so rapidly that it may reach central pressures lower than most guidance around 970 mbs. Track likely to be across eastern LI and into se MA around Fall River back into Gulf of Maine just south of BOS. Anyone to east of that track could see damaging wind event (SW to W 50 G 80 mph) -- I think this will miss BOS by 20 miles or so south but may hit New Bediford and Brockton as well as the Cape -- and in general the wind field around this storm could intensify more than expected (but on the left side of the track that would mean NE 30-50 mph in exposed locations). As to snowfall amounts, I now expect these to range from 30-40 inches in parts of w CT and w/c MA to near zero in the Cape and islands, so perhaps 3-6 in around TAN, 6-10 PVD to BOS, 10-15 ne corner of CT to Lowell, about 20 in ORH, 20-25 BDL and Springfield MA, local 30-40 on east-facing slopes. Because of the massive interest in Tolland, I would say 19.9" there. Snowfalls in VT will range 20-40 inches and in NH 15 to 40, Maine likely to be about 20 most places locally a bit higher but low will be losing some energy after 00z. This thing has been cranking for past three hours, central pressure is dropping about 2 mb an hour. I've read a lot over the past hour about busts etc but I think the very strong dynamics will partially rescue the situation despite a lot of very mild air in lower-mid levels racing inland ahead of low. That situation will probably slam to a halt soon as the low is moving more northeast now than it was from Cape Lookout NC to Virginia Beach where it is now.
  12. Hang in, conditions around DC to BAL should improve as low is now dropping 2 mbs an hour and this warm air aloft should begin to pour northwards up and over the cold dome over the northeast. Your sleet will probably be an issue for NJ soon. Meanwhile, could see p types changing back to snow in MD next 2-3 hours. Diamond Shoals off NC just ramped up to 50 knot southerly winds and track of low currently 996 mbs near NC-VA border appears to be across VA beach towards a position off Ocean City then northeast.
  13. A stunning range of forecasts (not surprisingly, mine is highest for all four elements but not by a lot). I rarely see this sort of range so close to an event. Not my responsibility so I didn't work this out, but reading through my subjective impression was that the median and/or mean of the 50 or so forecasts is something like 4" DCA, 9" IAD and 6" BWI.
  14. I think the error distribution from some of these near-coastal depictions is like 20 miles west equals 50 miles east, and I would put my money on east, the 500-mb wind direction never backs enough to sustain these coastal-hugging depictions; the intensity will go into surface pressure deepening on a track NNE through Montauk into se MA. A very strong frontal boundary will run NNE from central LI to eastern CT to BOS and not oscillate very much in my opinion. As a result NYC and HV, n NJ could get 18-24 inches of snow with just minor mixing. Watch for later models to catch onto even more intensification once they detect that the primary center is the ne GOMEX low and not the leading wave. As that speeds up and deepens, we'll be seeing historic pressure falls and precip rates. I think an eventual pressure in the 965-970 range is possible. There's going to be frequent thunder with all the precip types too.
  15. Obviously a wide range of possible outcomes for NYC, LI and CT, more definite snow for n NJ and HV. But I think the storm is on a good track for heavy snow anywhere west of ISP to PVD. It will try to push back warm air to the west but the steady advance of the ULL and the strong dynamics will keep most of the precip snow, so I am going for 15-20 inches in NYC and western LI, 17-24 in HV and parts of n NJ. I think there is some potential for this to deepen even more than models currently depict and to reach 965 mbs before landfall in se MA. The fastest development will take place from Hatteras to 39N.