Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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    CONTEST ORGANIZER
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
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  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. First updates on anomalies and forecasts ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ________ (7d) __________ 0.0 _ --5.3 _ --4.8 ___ +3.0 _ +2.6 _ +3.2 ___ +3.3 _ +3.2 _ +5.5 _______ (14d) _________+0.6 _ --1.3 _ +0.3 ___ +2.5 _ +2.4 _ +3.9 ___ +4.1 _ +3.3 _ +5.1 _______ (p14d) _______ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 _______ (p21d) _______ --0.4 _ --1.6 _ --0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 _ +2.6 ___ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 _______ (p24d) ________ 0.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 _______ (p31d) ________ +1.0 __0.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 (8th) _ The following week looks quite variable with very mild followed by quite cold and back to milder before the end. Then the interval from the 15th to 24th looks rather cold in the east and near normal in the west. I went with some rather conservative assumptions in these projections. Really all forecasts seem to have some chance at this point. (15th) _ The forecasts for the past week were reasonably good and averaged an error of 1.1 deg. The coming week is looking somewhat colder than average, on balance, after a mild start in some eastern and central locations. It appears likely to remain rather mild in the west. Then the outlook period (22nd to 31st) from GFS looks generally mild and the provisionals shown are probably a bit conservative from that guidance. The days leading up to Christmas may be well into the 60s in the eastern states. There is a bit of a return to colder weather near the end of the run. I need me to be wrong.
  2. Forecasts for December 2019 For your interest, I have posted points differential against the current contest leader, RodneyS and also wxdude64 who is 40 points behind going into this month ... this tells you how many points more or less you could score relative to RodneyS and wxdude64 if you're right on or they are right on with forecasts. Actual values "outside" your forecast (e.g. you're predicting lower and it's even lower than your prediction) will count full value in this regard unless the anomalies get very large, then we could get into factored scoring systems. End of month anomaly values between the two forecasts being compared will have reduced impact on the differential. Chances are quite high there won't be this much separation in points either way (you're generally closer or the leader is generally closer to outcomes -- one or two will perhaps work against the rest). Note the three highest scores from November's annual update are all separated enough to give them leverage on each other. Should be an interesting conclusion to a great contest year. (note, it is possible but unlikely that you could gain more points than shown here if some stations go to max-60 scoring, but with the two leaders likely to score medium numbers of points in those cases, very unlikely that the math would work for anybody if that happens). With my colder forecasts, almost the entire field can pass me (currently third and 96 points behind RodneyS and 56 behind wxdude64) if I'm out to lunch (and it is lunch time). FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ pts diff (1st, 2nd) BKViking __________________+1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +0.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 ___ 262, 168 wxdude64 _________________+1.7 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ 122, 000 DonSutherland.1 ___________+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +1.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ___ 134, 052 Scotty Lightning ____________+1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 114, 120 hudsonvalley21 ____________+0.9 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ +0.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.8 ___ +1.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 ___ 230, 168 ___ Consensus _____________ +0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ____ +0.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ 108, 094 wxallannj __________________ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ +1.9 _ +2.6 _ +2.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +1.2 ___ 172, 162 RodneyS ___________________ +0.7 _ --0.3 _ --0.3 ___ +2.6 _ +0.7 _ +2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.6 ___ 000, 122 Tom _______________________ +0.5 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.6 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ 134, 168 Jakkelwx ___________________+0.3 _ --0.2 _ --0.7 ___ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +0.5 _ +2.1 ___ 224, 286 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 166, 200 Roger Smith _______________ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.5 ___ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 ___ --2.0 ___ 0.0 _ --1.7 ___ 546, 552 ====================================================================================== Consensus is the median value, or mean of 5th and 6th ranked forecasts out of ten received. Welcome back Jakkelwx, and good luck everybody. __ Snowfall contest will be updated in place in the November thread __
  3. I just hope it doesn't go full 1949-50 on us, extreme cold developed over my part of the world that winter and after a coldish start to winter it turned very mild in the east at least to mid-Feb before becoming more seasonable. I mention that winter because we are in a very unusual dry pattern here where the PNW meets western Canada. It appears to be breaking down a bit to cold and snowy. That was about the same transition that brought in the severe cold later in Dec 1949 and all of Jan 1950 which ran 15-20 (F) deg below normal in many parts of the west while Jan 1950 was a top ten mild month in the east. The storm track was eventually set up near Chicago running SW-NE. That lasted to mid-Feb then more of a cold pattern with coastal lows. I think we'll see at least a modified version of this in 2019-20 and a good start to winter in the east perhaps reversing form some time around or just after New Years.
  4. Final adjustments to scoring have left the tables completed as of now, with RodneyS holding a rather slim 40 point advantage over wxdude64, and 89 points clear of third place RS. DonS is a further 115 points back or 204 behind the leader. These are probably all margins that could be made up from differences in December forecasts, not sure about the math of moving past everyone ahead but it should be a nail-biter for the three leaders for sure.
  5. Okay, everyone made it on time, so here goes nothing ... --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.5 ___ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 ___ --2.0 _ 0.0 __ --1.7 Good luck and check back for updates to the anomaly tracker. Winter snowfall contest entries are posted in the Nov thread. I will move that into the January thread but leave it over there during December with some updates on actual amounts (DEN has already had quite a bit of snow).
  6. _________________________ WOW _____________ YEAH ______________ OKAY _______________ OUCH _____________ ouch _______________ meh _____________ whatever ============================================================== (( __ )) ======================================================== Update on my earlier comments about odd snowfall patterns, we still have not had even 5% of the normal November snowfall where I live, and it is bone dry around this region which is very odd for November. The lower elevations of the Columbia valley (where it leaves Canada and enters WA state) have seen no snow, very little rainfall, and the ground is as dry as it would be in mid-August in our dry summer climate here. So on the principle that it has to snow somewhere if it does not snow here, why not there? BTW I think those are reasonable predictions above, mine are not that different, just havin' a laff.
  7. Note: the annual scoring race was adjusted today ... as DEN and BOS scores are heading for somewhat different results relatively speaking. The adjustments move wxdude64 past yours truly into second place and also help RodneyS gain back some of the points advantage he had at end of October. His lead is now up to 68 over nearest competitor. Still looks like an epic finish to our contest year.
  8. I have been posting winter snowfall contests here for several years, just can't really get into the mood of it this winter for some unknown reason. I am hoping to be away for a large chunk of time later in the winter which may be one reason. Maybe some other more active member of the sub-forum would like to run a contest. But rather than just dropping it entirely, why not compare notes on expectations. I think the winter will be quite productive (again) in this region and the sweet spot relative to normal may not be far from an axis running NE-SW through Chicago. The current rather cold pattern in the east seems likely to persist for a while then retrogress in mid-winter, placing the storm track just about over the Midwest and central Great Lakes. So I'm expecting maybe 50-60 inches of snow total in ORD and 40-50 for DTW, higher amounts but not necessarily higher compared to normal to the north of ORD to APN. A significant amount of that may have already happened. Probably a rather average lake effect sort of outcome with long intervals not suitable and a few periods very heavy. I think this might be a winter with relatively mild intervals at the core and a return to colder than normal in March-April, prolonging the season. What are you expecting?
  9. Provisional scoring reveals that the contest will be very close going into the final month. As always, predict the temperature anomalies for these locations relative to 1981-2010 normal values (in F deg). DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA The usual deadline, with the Thanksgiving holiday landing late, I am expecting some later entries, will be lenient especially if you're not in the hunt. Have a great Thanksgiving by the way. (we did that back in October up here)
  10. 2019-2020 winter snowfall contest -- table of entries FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (Dec 6) _____ 0.0 __ 1.6 __ 7.1 ____ 8.4 __ 9.7 _ 20.5 ___ 26.2 __ 0.0 _ 16.0 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0
  11. <<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Nov 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>   A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals.  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL  RodneyS ______________665 _814 _743__2222 __656 _680 _830__2166 __4388 __ 723 _758 _738 __ 2219___ 6607 wxdude64 ____________ 739 _856 _719 __2314 __678 _627 _809__2114 __4428 __ 637 _754 _748 __2139 ___6567 ___ Consensus ________709_ 854 _756 __2319__643 _653 _814 __2110 __4429 __ 589 _764 _744__2097 ____6526 Roger Smith __________ 776 _800 _750 __2326__641 _609 _770__2020 __4346 __ 746 _722 _704 __2172____6518 DonSutherland.1 ______627 _824 _669 __2120 __624 _664 _840 __2128 __4248 __ 581 _806_ 768__2155____ 6403 wxallannj _____________691 _764 _772 __2237 __559 _689 _772 __2020 __ 4257__ 521 _776 _728 __2025____ 6282 BKViking _____________ 716 _817 _748 __2281 __599 _553 _751 __1903 __4184 __ 529 _723 _740 __1992 ____6176 hudsonvalley21 _______646 _758 _804 __2308 __575 _659 _784 __2018 __4326 __ 391 _766 _680 __1837____ 6163 Scotty Lightning_______635 _796 _735 __2166 __605 _642 _812 __2059 __4225 __ 433 _690 _610 __1733 ____5958 Tom __________________553 _751 _635 __1939 __640 _542 _802 __1984 __3923 __ 521 _744 _701 __1966 ____5889  ___ Normal ___________440 _756 _620 __1816 __598 _430 _768 __1796 __3612 __ 444 _737 _547__1728 ____5340 Stebo (4/10) __________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225 RJay (4/10) ___________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 tplbge (1/10) ___________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684 Orangeburgwx (1/10) ___ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____ 682 smerby (1/10) __________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660 Jakkelwx (1/10) ________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___ 390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 ___ 258 ____ 648  _______________________________________________________________________  Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).  _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). _ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine  RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY wxdude64 ______________ 2 ___0 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___2*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___1 ___3 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN  ___Consensus__________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith ____________6 ___2 ___2 ____ 5 ____ 4 ___4 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 3 __ JUL, SEP, NOV DonSutherland.1 ________0 ___1 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^ wxallannj _______________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___0 ___1 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 1 ___4 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Scotty Lightning ________ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG Tom ____________________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB  RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Orangeburgwx _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  jakkelwx _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0  __________________________________________________________________________________  Extreme forecasts    STANDINGS to date in 2019 Roger Smith _________27-8 (3 _/) RodneyS ____________ 12-5 DonSutherland1 ______ 8-0 wxdude64 ___________ 8-0 wxallannj ____________ 8-2 Scotty Lightning ______6-1 Normal ______________ 6-1 hudsonvalley21 _______5-1 (1 _/) Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2 Tom _________________ 4-1 Stebo ________________3-1 BKViking ____________ 2-0*^% RJay ________________ 1-0  tplbge _______________1-0  Jakkelwx ____________1-0  *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.  ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason. % also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason. _/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley21 (BOS) same reason for symbol. ... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. ... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).  ______________________________________________________________________________
  12. Rogue Waves -- about the winter of 1842-43 ... The Toronto records for some years in the 1840s have either lost their snowfall data or the observers didn't record it for a few winters. It becomes a complete record of both rain and snow after 1848 but there are some partial records for years between 1845 and 1847. Some of this material may be recoverable. For example, old published annual summaries (from the 1950s) gave all-time records that included 12" of snow in October 1844, but this did not make it into the published records or the on-line historical weather section on the EC website. I don't know why that happened, the snow matches the coldest temperatures for October recorded on the same days (end of the month). As to the winter of 1842-43, we do have all temperature and rainfall records. I don't think the rainfalls are anything but rain, no melted snow seems to be in them, because in those first few winters all the rainfall reports are on mild days only. There was some sort of almost singularity type storm on January 31st, 1843. Apparently there are some accounts of it in the Midwest, perhaps others reading this will know where they are sourced. I can see that the temperature dropped sharply from that date to early February and the reported rainfall for the date was 2.50" which is considerably larger than any other one-day January rainfall at Toronto. Basically it seems to have been fairly mild up until that storm and quite cold for February through April afterwards. I assume the storm must have been a blizzard to the north of its track and must have had some severe lake effect bands during the transition. Perhaps it had some similarities to the Jan 1978 storm although I imagine it ran more southwest to northeast than south to north. The high for Jan 31 is given as 36 F with a reading of -3 F by early Feb 2nd. Combined with the very heavy rain that suggests some sort of track where the warm sector stayed over western New York, and perhaps part of the rainfall event was freezing rain. With that moisture signal it would not surprise me to learn that the snow side of the storm was also quite heavy and there may have been some very strong winds wrapped around the system. There was another rainfall around the 10th and 11th of February with one brief return into above freezing temperatures, after which it stayed around 20 F most of the time with some subzero nights, not as cold as some months back in that era like Feb 1855 which had some days entirely below zero F. (later edit) Spent some time googling the winter of 1843 and the period in question, didn't find much except for this account from Minnesota: https://www.climatestations.com/minnesota-weather-for-1843/ and also a New York City newspaper reporting gales from south to southwest on (Tuesday) Feb 1, 1843, spreading up the coast to Boston. I searched some old newspapers from the Great Lakes region, nothing was available in Michigan, anything else I could find had no references to recent news of any kind and the contents were either political reports, advertising or short stories and poems. However these were not major city newspapers of that period so perhaps a search of Detroit or Chicago newspaper files from the days after the storm. Perhaps the severe period was later than just this one big storm, as evidenced by how the weather was described in Minnesota, certainly the storm in question began the severe period but it seemed to become worse later in February there.
  13. I am working on a project to extend the records of the (downtown) Toronto city weather station. This was a first order station back in the day and I have published records for it starting in March, 1840. I have recently updated all the daily record highs and lows for temperatures, and rainfall and snowfall. Some of that required taking estimates from nearby locations as there is not quite a continuous observation program (it was most incomplete in 2016 and 2017, seems to be back up to 100% this year). The past week produced two record lows, which makes a grand total of six from the past thirty years. There were two in January 1994, one in November 1997, one in March 2007, one in November 2017, and now the two just observed. Before that there were only record lows in 1972, 1976, 1980, 1981 and 1982, since the publication of daily temperatures and extremes that I used as my starting point. There have been of course a lot of new record highs although I've found that the frequency of them is not really different from the period 1910-1967 (the year when the publication came out). I will publish some links to the full results in a month or two, although the real target for ending the project is March 1, the 180th anniversary of the first records. Before that, I happen to have some data from Providence, RI to cover the 1830s, and some overlap with Toronto in 1840, from which it appears that the temperatures are quite similar if perhaps a day later in their arrival at Providence compared to Toronto. That probably wasn't always the case, but it seemed to be working that way in March, 1840 which oddly enough started out with record warmth in what turned out to be quite a cold year generally. The recent records for your interest are Nov 12 ____ 16 F ___ breaks 17 F from 1894, 98 Nov 13 ____ 12 F ___ breaks 14 F from 1873 That 1873 record was perhaps a midnight low as the record low for the 14th was also in 1873 and was 11 F. The 1873 record lows were also the earliest in the winter season that the temperature went below 15 F which had been observed on the 4th and 5th in 1854. But that quickly escalated to 7 F on 15th-16th in 1933, then progressively lower after the 20th reaching -5 F on Nov 30, 1875 as the absolute low for November. The daily high reported on the 12th of 24 F appears to be the earliest such reading, the 1873 outbreak had 26 on the 13th. The high on the 15th in 1933 was 19 F, the earliest sub-20 recorded, but the absolute low once again went to Nov 30, 1875 with a high of only 5 F. The 1880 cold shows up big time also, with daytime highs continuously below 30 F from 18th to 27th and below 20 F from 21st to 23rd when lows reached 4 F. This part of November has done much better for record cold than most parts of the year in modern times, this being the third new record along with 21 F on 8th (1976) and 15 F on 10th in 2017. The reason why so few records have fallen in the past half century is mainly the urban heat island effect which was already becoming evident in the data around the 1890s and 1900-09 decade. The rate of production of surviving record lows drops sharply after 1888 and even back around 1950 it was just about as difficult as nowadays to break a record, any time that a half decent cold air mass hit in the 19th century there was no city there to modify the radiational cooling, so the records set nowadays are mainly from exceptional cold air masses that have a bit of velocity to get them into the city's core without losing too much of their cold. Snowfall observations have become a bit problematic, it appears that two different observation programs are underway (since 2003) and one observer logs temperatures and rain/precip and snow depth, while another one goes to a slightly different location and logs rain and snow in the winter season only. This secondary site usually reports very similar rainfalls and snow depths match the snowfall amounts. So far I have not seen that secondary report and have only the 14.1 mm precip and 15 cm snow depth as guides to what fell on November 11th. That would edge out the previous record of 4.8" on Nov 11, 1933 (which was followed by record cold of 7 F on both 15th and 16th). The 1898 cold was preceded by 5.5" snow on November 10th. (15 cm is 5.9" but as the station has variable water content results for snowfalls I can only estimate that from snow depth). Daily rainfall records seem to have decreased slightly in frequency although match random expectation fairly closely (in the past half century). Daily snowfall records have fallen to about two-thirds the expected pace based on 50 of 180 years, but there are peaks around mid-November and early April (more heavy snowfall events than expected at random). The month where winter has been most visibly eroded is February, a lot of new record high temperatures and very few snowfalls of consequence. January by contrast has produced about the usual crop of cold records and snowfalls. I may get after that snowfall contest for the forum, last year the deadline for it was December 1st and was extended to about the 10th, so no rush on that.
  14. Final scoring for November 2019 FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS Roger Smith _______________ 84 _ 78 _ 80 ___ 242 __ 65 _ 94 _ 70 __ 229 __ 471 __ 68 _ 74 _ 66 __ 208 _____ 679 wxdude64 _________________ 62 _ 60 _ 84 ___ 206 __ 33 _ 94 _ 80 __ 207 __ 413 __ 76 _ 84 _ 92 __ 252 _____ 665 RodneyS ___________________ 56 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 186 __ 39 _ 88 _ 52 __ 179 __ 365 __ 82 _ 70 _ 80 __ 232 _____ 597 Tom _______________________ 36 _ 36 _ 74 ___ 146 __ 17 _ 88 _ 56 __ 161 __ 307 __ 62 _ 88 _ 94 __ 244 _____ 551 Scotty Lightning ____________50 _ 44 _ 80 ___ 174 __ 25 _ 50 _ 74 __ 149 __ 323 __ 48 _ 74 _ 86 __ 208 _____ 531 ___ Consensus ______________ 36 _ 36 _ 74 ___ 146 __ 25 _ 72 _ 56 ___ 153 __ 299 __ 48 _ 88 _ 94 __ 230 _____ 529 DonSutherland1 ____________20 _ 14 _ 62 ___ 096 __ 29 _ 72 _ 68 __ 169 __ 265 __ 34 _ 94 _ 82 __ 210 _____ 475 BKViking ___________________34 _ 28 _ 66 ___ 128 __ 19 _ 38 _ 46 __ 103 __ 231 __ 48 _ 94 _ 96 __ 238 _____ 469 wxallannj ___________________36 _ 28 _ 70 ___ 134 __ 25 _ 46 _ 38 __ 109 __ 243 __ 40 _ 98 _ 82 __ 220 _____ 463 ___ Normal _________________30 _ 24 _ 60 ___ 114 __ 00 _ 70 _ 54 __ 124 __ 238 ___ 58 _ 54 _ 76 __ 188 _____ 426 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 14 _ 04 _ 52 ___ 070 __ 00 _ 56 _ 30 __ 086 __ 156 ___ 26 _ 94 _ 98 __ 218 _____ 374 =============================================== Extreme forecasts Coldest forecasts have scored highest at DCA, NYC, ORD, IAH and DEN. The first three of those go to Roger Smith, IAH to wxdude64, and DEN to RodneyS. BOS and ATL produced winners and losers as second coldest forecasts attained high scores there. BOS (-2.0) is a loss for RS (-3.0) and a win for second coldest wxdude64 (-1.4) ATL (-1.5) warmed up enough on the 30th to transfer the highest score previously held by RodneyS (-2.1) to a tie (Roger Smith -1.8 and wxdude64 -1.2) who share the win while RodneyS gets a loss. SEA does not qualify for extreme forecasts at the moment, consensus values are close to the provisionals with both warm and cold extremes scoring lower than most. PHX (+2.3) was a win for second warmest forecast of wxallannj (+2.2) and a loss for warmest hudsonvalley21 (+2.6).
  15. First report on the anomalies and projections ... ___________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th ___________ (anom 7d) _________--3.0 _ --0.7 _ +1.9 ___ --8.8 _ --3.7 _ --4.6 ___ --7.1 _ +2.6 _ +0.4 16th _________ (anom 15d) ________ --6.2 _ --5.4 _ --3.5 __ --12.8 _ --7.0 _ --9.5 ___ --1.9 _ +4.7 _ +2.5 23rd _________ (anom 22d) ________ --5.0 _ --5.2 _ --3.4 ___ --9.1 _ --4.2 _ --6.1 ___ +0.1 _ +4.0 _ +2.4 8th ___________ (p 14 d) ___________ --7.0 _ --6.0 _ --5.0 __ -11.0 _ --8.0 _ --8.0 ___ --2.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.5 16th __________ (p 22 d) ___________ --4.8 _ --4.5 _ --4.0 ___ --8.0 _ --7.0 _ --6.5 ___ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 8th ___________ (p 24 d) ___________ --4.5 _ --3.0 _ --2.5 ___ --6.0 _ --4.0 _ --4.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 16th __________ (p 30d) ___________ --4.0 _ --4.0 _ --3.5 ___ --5.0 _ --5.5 _ --5.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 23rd __________ (p 30 d) ___________ --3.0 _ --3.5 _ --2.5 ___ --6.0 _ --2.5 _ --3.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 29th ________ changes _________________________ --2.0 _________________________ --2.0 ____________ 1st Dec __ final anomalies ________ --3.5 _ --3.8 _ --2.0 ___--5.5 _ --1.5 _ --2.3 ____--2.1 _+2.3 _+1.2 __________________________________________________________ (8th) _ The month started quite cold in the east and central regions, and looks like getting even colder next week. The projection beyond that is based on a more modest cold anomaly to near normal conditions returning. The west has been a little warmer than average and looks set to stay that way for most of the month. (16th) _ I am updating a day later than usual, so the discussion of errors in the 7d outlook above will refer to estimates of the anomalies to 15th rather than what you see posted for the 16th. Those forecasts were fairly accurate given the large negative anomaly that developed over the eastern and central regions. For most locations the 15th was fairly close to the anomaly shown but for DEN which warmed up it was likely closer to -3 so the error was larger than it looks there. PHX and SEA probably did a bit better as they moved up beyond where they had been on 14th. So overall I am estimating an average error close to 1 deg which for a pattern this anomalous is good. The projections for next week are for modified cold to continue in the east, modified warmth fading to closer to average in the west. Then for the period 23rd to 30th I have extended the values derived for the 22nd with conservative assumptions of pattern persistence (small negative anomalies east, small positives west). Based on the provisional end of month anomalies, the scoring would likely be an inverse of the forecast table but only faintly so, since the larger potential errors in the east seem to be compensated by better scoring in the west. We all seem to have looked for patterns that were less divided east-west than what actually has developed so far at least. (23rd) _ The forecasts for this past week were fairly accurate although ATL did not retain the cold anomaly to the extent suggested, overall the average error in the forecast (based on NWS 7-day) was 0.87 deg. This coming week, using the NWS 7-day and one additional day from the GFS guidance, it looks as though all large negative anomalies will be trimmed down further and this actually brings ATL and IAH back into normal scoring range so we won't likely need provisional scoring there. ORD could on the other hand get into that range, at the moment the provisional is just low enough to keep scoring "raw." Anything colder than -6.5 will change that and I think the field will benefit slightly vs my own lead in the monthly contest as the differentials on raw scores are higher than the progressive scoring would become. Now that BOS has a provisional less extreme than my forecast, there again the field will gain as all scores rise but mine not as much. Feeling more confident that these scores will be a good approximation now, so I will bring in the annual update soon, after revising the provisional scoring. (29th) _ Scoring for BOS and DEN will be adjusted after checking the progress of the last forecasts a week ago. The rest look to be either on track or will produce only a field-wide adjustment not affecting contest scoring relatively. (1st Dec) _ Final anomalies are now all confirmed as of 14z. Most of the scoring is already updated and this will be complete by 15z.