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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    New Denver BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

    Without any local preference, I would say 10-15 inch lake streamer band will be the main feature by about midnight, oriented ENE-WSW through Chicago and curving more to E-W as it is shaped by frontal boundary wind inflow pattern. Possible resonant bands of 8-12 and 6-10 inches further north with lesser amounts in between. Will more or less double ORD's seasonal snowfall by Monday.
  2. Here we go with the anomaly trackers, after the first two weeks of February ... I left the p14d line in place to compare outcome with prediction. And I left the old p24d up for comparison with the new p21d as well as the new p28d now that the GFS goes out to March 3rd. ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ________ (7d) _______--2.0 _--0.6 _+0.2 ___ --8.1 _+1.3 _+3.0 ____+4.3 _+6.8 _+5.5 _from 8th (p14d) _____+1.5 _+2.2 _+3.0 ___ --6.5 _+4.0 _+2.0 ____+2.0 _+5.4 _+4.0 _______ ( 14 d) ______+1.5 _+2.7 _+2.2 ___ --7.1 _+4.6 _+0.2 ____+1.0 _+5.9 _+1.9 _from 15th (p21d) ____ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ --4.0 _+4.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.8 _--1.5 _from 8th _ (p24d) ___+0.8 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___ --4.5 _+5.0 _+4.0 ____+0.5 _+5.0 _+2.5 _from 15th (p28d) ____+2.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ --2.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 ____--1.0 _+3.5 _--2.0 notes: (8th) _ The 8 to 16 day projections are based on a strong frontal zone setting up at times around 36N so that ATL should remain mostly on the warm side, closer to normal in DCA and the northeast but quite cold most of the time in ORD. DEN stays near the frontal boundary too with oscillations on either side of normal. PHX generally warm and SEA gets occasional below normal days tempering their very warm start. Turning very cold in the northeast at the end of the GFS run, so verbatim those anomalies might not stay positive to the 28th. (15th) _ The 7-d forecasts from the first week to today's update proved reasonably accurate, the average error for the nine forecasts was 0.9 F deg and these forecasts (based on NWS 7-d available on 8th) would have scored 742/900 in our contest scoring system. The comparison at 24d interpolating the current p21 and p28 values is not as good, it was about 2 deg off, mostly warmer in the latest forecasts, but SEA and DEN colder (but this is comparing forecasts to forecasts so we don't know yet the comparison of either forecast set to reality). My assumptions based on 8 to 16 day GFS were that the milder turn of events in the east would continue at least to some extent, and that there would be muted warmth across the south, with colder than normal values prevailing in the northwest, leaving DEN near a fluctuating zero anomaly but more often on the cold side. The west-central cold would relent at ORD but not to enough extent to flip the anomaly there with only seven days left to work on it (it appears likely to turn milder at ORD most of this coming week, eroding the current large negative anomaly).
  3. February 7th Snow To Rain Event

    It could be a snowstorm, if either it moves 100 miles south, or you move 100 miles north.
  4. Super Bowl Slop Storm

    I have to admit, this system looks wacky on the 24-36h panels with copious moisture developing out of an essentially bone dry stale arctic air mass over the southeast U.S., and almost no energy available to the system. There may be some potential here for surprise snowfalls in the 2-4" range but it could be very hit or miss too. When I look at the current surface charts, a typical temp/dp reading ahead of the developing southern wave is 50/10. This suggests that if saturation can even happen in time, the temp/dp will be something close to 34/31 as precip begins. It may prove helpful to snow production that the heaviest part of the precip will arrive after 6 p.m. Sunday lasting through much of the night to early Monday. So I have revised my forecast from snow only well away from cities to scattered 1-3" throughout and 3-5" potential. I don't think models have much of a handle on this since it's so weak and disorganized. Biggest surprise snow might be well to the southwest of DC in parts of western VA and higher Piedmont areas of NC.
  5. We continue to track the snowfall contest forecasts in this post. I have added total snowfalls for each forecaster, and an error column (dep) which for most is the difference between forecast and current snowfall totals. The few forecasts marked in red have been overtaken by actuals, and they count double in this departure column as it is calculated by adding twice the error values to total departure. Here's an example of why that is so. Let's say everyone in the contest was 100" above the actual snowfall but one forecaster had one error of 10" at one station that was a lower forecast than actual, and every other forecast made was above the actual. That one forecaster would then have 110" more in total forecasts than actual for the other eight locations since the -10" value would bring his total to 100" so his total error is 110" + 10" or 120". This also tells you that once you are passed by actual values for any forecast, each 0.1" at that location will count 0.1" towards your total error while others not yet passed will be improving by 0.1" so relatively speaking, your red marked errors are counting twice as they increase. Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total _____ dep so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 ___ 438.0 ___ 183.9 Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 ___ 533.3 ___ 246.2 Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0___ 460.0 ___ 194.1 dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 ___ 528.0 ___ 240.9 wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 ___ 482.3 ___ 195.2 hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 ___ 466.5 ___ 182.4 DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 ___ 478.3 ___ 191.2 H2OTown_WX ________ 14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ 368.4 ___ 108.9 ___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0___459.0___174.9 Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 ___ 398.5 ___ 147.6 wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0 ___ 340.3 ___ 132.4 BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0___ 511.0 ___ 228.9 RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _105.0 ___ 536.0 ___ 248.9 Scotty Lightning (SD) ___10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 ___ 486.0 ___ 198.9 RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 ___ 384.4 ___ 110.9 SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0 _ 75.0 ___ 367.0 ___ 132.1 Table of departures (errors) Numbers in red show forecasts already passed by actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to increases. Numbers in black show forecasts still below actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to decreases. Rank _FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total dep 01 H2OTown_WX ________ 11.3 _ 03.8 _ 12.0 __ 16.1 _ 13.8 _ 10.3 __ 25.2 _ 02.4 _ 14.0 ___ 108.9 02 RodneyS _____________05.0 _ 05.6 _ 06.6 __ 24.1 _ 06.8 _ 12.7 __ 36.7 _ 09.5 _ 03.9 ___ 110.9 03 SnoSki14 ____________ 01.1 _ 14.4 _ 05.8 __ 11.7 _ 07.5 _ 03.1 __ 39.6 _ 27.0 _ 21.9 ___ 132.1 04 wxallannj ____________ 09.2 _ 07.6 _ 03.8 __ 09.7 _ 09.5 _ 30.1 __ 42.6 _ 16.0 _ 03.9 ___ 132.4 05 Stebo _______________ 09.4 _ 14.3 _ 20.8 __ 21.7 _ 04.8 _ 18.1 __ 35.1 _ 04.0 _ 19.4 ___ 147.6 (06) __ Consensus _____11.3 _14.3 _24.2 __20.6 _01.5 _ 12.7__40.4_07.0 _42.9__ 174.9 06 hudsonvalley21 _______ 12.4 _ 22.6 _ 27.8 __ 18.7 _ 01.5 _ 07.9 __ 48.6 _ 07.0 _ 35.9 ___ 182.4 07 so_whats_happening___ 18.9 _ 18.6 _ 33.8 __ 02.7 _ 16.5 _ 01.9 __ 37.6 _ 11.0 _ 42.9 ___ 183.9 08 DonSutherland.1 ______ 12.0 _ 14.9 _ 24.2 __ 20.6 _ 01.7 _ 29.5 __ 40.4 _ 04.3 _ 43.6 ___ 191.2 09 Roger Smith __________16.4 _ 20.6 _ 30.8 __ 04.7 _ 07.5 _ 03.1 __ 39.6 _ 14.5 _ 56.9___ 194.1 10 wxdude64 ____________13.2 _ 08.3 _ 08.3 __ 26.5 _ 03.0 _ 19.1 __ 62.2 _ 08.2 _ 46.4 ___ 195.2 11 Scotty Lightning (SD) ___06.9 _ 03.6 _ 15.8 __ 26.7 _ 14.5 _ 26.9 __ 69.6_ 01.0 _ 33.9 ___ 198.9 12 BKViking _____________07.9 _ 13.6 _ 40.8 __ 11.7 _ 02.5 _ 26.9 __ 61.6 _ 07.0 _ 56.9___ 228.9 13 dmillz25 _____________ 13.9 _ 21.6 _ 27.8 __ 38.7_ 17.5_ 21.9 __ 44.6 _ 12.0 _ 42.9 ___ 240.9 14 Tom ________________ 16.5 _ 24.4 _33.9 __ 31.1 _ 00.9 _ 20.7 __ 56.1 _ 06.4 _ 56.2 ___ 246.2 15 RJay ________________ 06.9 _ 20.6 _ 40.8 __ 21.7 _ 02.5 _36.9 __64.6 _ 03.0 _ 51.9 ___ 248.9 Amounts to date _______ 3.1 _19.4 _29.2 __28.3 _52.5 _83.1__15.4 _3.0 _ 53.1 __ 287.1 ... snowfalls through Feb 15th ... updated daily (when snow falls). _____________________________________________________________________________ 15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked). Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold. Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics. Forecasts passed by totals to date are in red.
  6. 2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    February updates to snowfall amounts and contest The following chart continues on from January which was tracked in the previous post. That post is now retired. The contest results are beginning to take shape in the post before that one (two posts back), forecaster departures from actual snowfall. But so far, most of the "errors" are just snow in the future catching up to our forecasts. There are a few cases where actual amounts have passed a few predictions. Those errors can continue to increase. So here is the February update, the orange numbers on the far left will track February snowfall, and other colored numbers are explained in the first line. Your forecasts appear across each line in the order they hold from lowest (left) to highest (right). Actual seasonal snowfall (which continues to increase) are the red numbers moving slowly across the chart and sometimes passing your forecast. This has happened to most of us at PAH, a few at CMH, and just one forecaster as of Feb 2nd, at PIA and DTW. (update 11th _ Red numbers are moving faster across the charts and now almost a third of the forecasts at half the stations are lower than actual values. Some stations like APN, MQT and CLE continue to have some room left before anyone gets passed by their totals, if it even happens at all (APN is lagging the most). LOC _ Feb totals __ season to date_MIN______________ 8615 avg __ ConA _______________________MAX_______________ APN __ 8.0 _____ 37.1 ____ 72 RS_DM _VP _CI _CM _ST SP 80.4 TH MA 85.3 _HA_ MI__ DA___ IT__ IW,CY 105 ___________________________72.6_73_74_75_77_80___ 81.1_85 ___ 90_92.1_97.6_100 ORD _18.3 _____________27.6 DM_28.3 CM,RS_TH__HA ST 38.1 SP,CI,VP 40.0 CY _ MA_ MI__ DA ___ IW __ IT 65 ______________________________ 30 __ 30.5_35_37 ____ 39 ______ 41 _44 _44.6_44.9__54 CLE _5.8___35.8_45.3 DM _CI ST CM TH_IT VP RS59.2HA MI 67.2 CY SP,IW MA ___ DA 89.7 ___________________46 47 48 48.5 50 53 55__60 64.4___69_70 _ 72 CMH 5.3_____14.7 DM_CM ST RS,MA_TH23.9_25.1 CI MI VP 28.4 SP,IT,HA DA CY IW 34 __________________15_18 20 __ 22 _______26 27 28 _____ 30 _ 30.1_31 DTW _ 20.8 __________________30.5 DM___VP RS,SP _ CM _ 44.8 CI,HA MA CY TH 49.3__IW52.5ST MI _ DA __ IT 83 __________________________________38 _40 __ 43______ 45 _46 48 49.1____52___55_55.4_69.2 FWA __ 7.3 ______________ 22.2 TH 25.9 __CM RS DM MA 34.0 HA SP 36.9 DA MI VP ST,CI,IW CY_ IT 47 ________________________________ 28_30_32.2_33___35_36___ 38_39_41__42__ 45 GRR _20.4_______________57.8 DM_66.5_ST _TH_ CM CI 77.1 SP RS,HA 80.3 MA DA__ MI___ CY, VP _IW __ IT 106 _______________________________68_69.6_70_71 ___ 78__80_____83_83.1_86.8__90___91 GRB _6.2__23.9_ 37 VP TH DM CM,RS CY DA CI SP 52.1ST MI54.2 HA __ IW _ MA ____________________ IT 84 _________________42.4_43.3_45_47 50.3 51 52__53 53.3___56 __ 60 _62 IND _ 1.4____ 9.0 _11 RS DM _ CM,CY HA MA,ST DA 23.5 MI 25.9 SP TH CI, VP IW IT 35 ____________________ 11.6 _ 19 _20 _ 22 _22.1___24.4___26 27__ 31_ 32 LSE _6.9__22.1_31.7 DM RS VP,CI,CY,ST DA TH43.7SP,HA,CM46.1_ MI _ MA _ IW ____________________ IT 81 ___________________ 34 __35 ___41.2 42.1 ___ 45 ______ 47.7_51_52 YXU _14.5 __________ 55 CM 56.8 VP _ CY,CI MA ST,TH DM 75.7 SP 77.9 RS,HA_ IW _DA __ MI ____________ IT 145 __________________________ 59 __ 64_ 68 __70_73 ____76 _____ 80 __81_87.3_95.9 SDF _0.4____5.6__7 CY_MA_ST,CI_DM TH _RS _MI_CM 13.1_13.9 IW,SP,HA__ DA ____ VP ________________ IT 29 __________________7.5 _8.5_9.7_9.9_10_11.8_12__________ 15___ 17.2 __ 21 MQT _3.5_103.3_142 CI_ST DM__CM_ RS_TH__VP MA192.4_199.8 SP _HA __IT __IW __DA __ MI___ CY 233 ________________157 167.5 168 176 182.5 186 188______ 200 203.4 205 216 222.3 223.4 MKE_16.2__32.4 35 DM,RS_VP CM CY TH_ MA ST,CI 45.9DA SP49.2 HA MI ___ IW __________ IT 71 _____________________ 38 40 41 42.7 44_ 45 ___47.2 48 __ 50_51.1 _ 55 MSP__3.2_____29 CI_30.7ST VP RS DM CY_HA,CM 48.1 DA SP 50.6 MA MI ___ IW _TH _________________ IT 87 ___________________ 34 37 38 42.5 43_ 45 ____ 49.9 50 __52 52.6___57_59.8 MLI 14.7_14 DM___RS_CY,HA,CM 26.5 VP TH DA30.9 CI ST SP33.5 MI __ MA IW ___________________ IT 58 _______________ 22 _ 25________28 29 30.2___31 32 33__34.5__38 39 PAH _ 0.1_____ 4 CI ____ ST _MA ______ TH _ HA ___ MI _ CM 9.2 _ 10.9 RS,CY SP,IW 12.5 DM __ DA __ VP ____ IT 23 ____________________ 5 _ 5.5 _____7.7 _ 8 ___ 8.8 __ 9 ________ 11 ___ 12 ____ 12.6 _ 14.3 _ 20 PIA _ 7.6_____8.9 DM__RS__ST,HA_18.5_CM_MA VP 24.0=SP 24.9 MI _TH __CY _DA __ IW ___ CI __ IT 40 __________________12 __ 18 ____ 19__21_23___24 _____ 25.7_27.1_28_28.3_ 30 __ 37 STL_0.1_4.8_10 HA,CM_MA,DM ST TH RS MI IW,VP DA SP 18.1 18.4__ CY CI _____________________________>> IT 52 _________________ 12.5_14_14.5_15_16.1_17_17.2_18 ____ 22 23 YYZ _ 11.5 _________ 27 IW _____RS 35.6__ TH __ CI,CM,SP 42.5 HA DM ST,MA 46.8 _CY_DA_ VP _ MI ______>> IT 104 __________________________ 35 _____ 37.5__ 40 _______ 43_44.6_45 ___ 48_48.2_49_55.5 Total snow to date __ 651.7" (64.3%) __ Feb 16 _ Amounts are now updated through Feb 15, (YXU now through 14th) and at all locations no new snow on 13th to 15th ... total seasonal snowfalls at the two Canadian locations are 141.0 cm for YXU and 90.1 cm for YYZ. We are using an alternate reporting site for YXU located in a similar zone relative to the Lake Huron snowbelt, namely Tillsonburg which is 40 km east of London (YXU not measuring snow this winter). The contest will be scored both with and without this YXU alternative data. ... percentages of 1986-2015 normal so far at ... PAH (136) DTW (117), GRR (86), CMH (84), YYZ (84), MLI (79), FWA (76), YXU (75), ORD (74), PIA (74), MKE (66), MSP (61), CLE (53), MQT (52), LSE (48), APN (46), GRB (44), SDF (40), IND (35), STL (26) (about 72% would be "normal" at this stage of winter assuming steady increase to end of season so lower MI and s ON appear to be doing better than an average winter, also recently central IL-IN-OH, most other places perhaps less than expected at this point.) Forecasters and snow totals, tie-breakers ... bold is shared win for Dec (ORD) and lone winner for Jan (IND). code _ FORECASTER __ SNOW TOTAL ______T-1 __ T-2 __ T-3 _____________________________Actual___ 5.3 __ 3.7 _20.8 (to 9th) DM ____ dmc76 ________ 787.6 __________ 2.3 __ 3.8 __ 6.8 CM ____ cmillzz ________ 841.0 __________ 4.2 __ 8.2 _ 15.0 RS ____ Roger Smith ____ 851.0 __________ 6.5 __ 3.5 _ 17.2 ST ____ Stebo __________882.5 __________ 7.0 __ 8.0 _ 13.5 CI ____ Central Illinois ___ 883.5 __________ 9.0 _ 11.0 __9.5 TH ____ Thomp2mp _____ 915.2 __________13.1 _ 4.5 _ 18.0 VP ____ VPBob21 _______ 943.0 ___________ 6.5 _13.6 _ 9.9 HA ____ Hawkeye_wx ___ 995.0 ___________ 7.0 __ 9.0 _13.0 MA ____ Madwx ________ 999.5 __________ 10.2 __ 6.3 _ 9.2 c avg __ Contest average _1003.5 __________ 8.2 __ 7.7 _13.3 SP ____ Slow poke ______1012.0 __________ 8.0 __ 8.0 __ 8.0 8615 _1986-2015 avg _1013.9 ________ 8.5 __8.6_10.2 CY ____ Cyclone77 ______ 1052.0 _________ 6.4 __5.0 _16.8 MI ____ michsnowfreak __ 1111.0 _________ 9.8 __ 9.0 _12.1 DA ____ DAFF __________ 1128.3 ________ 10.2 __ 8.1 _13.3 IW ____ IWXwx _________1145.0 _________ 8.5 _ 11.0 _16.5 IT ____ IndTenn ________ 1506.0 _________15.0 __6.0 _20.0 First tie-breaker was a tie with cmilzz 1.1" below ORD (5.3") in Dec and cyclone77 1.1" above. The second tie-breaker was won by DMC76 with 3.8" (actual 3.7") for Jan snow at IND. The third tie-breaker is Feb snow at DTW. -- IndTenn had already won this one on the 10th with highest forecast of 20.0" (when 19.6" had fallen, the rest won't change this result which is already up to 20.8").
  7. Record breaking warmth in the US in the 5-15 day

    Records most likely in southern AZ and south-central CA, further north and east there will be some mixing in of cooler air masses moving southeast from Canadian prairies to plains states. In about a week could see some spring-like conditions in Pac NW and southwest BC also. Huge contrasts in snow cover this month, perhaps not that unusual, but 2-3' of snow in Cascades, snow-free either side of that range (extending into southernmost parts of BC including the south Okanagan valley). Another peak in snowfall over the Monashee range in south central BC but not snow-free in next valley east, about 3-6" on the ground there. The recent temperature trend has been near normal in the inter-mountain valleys to about +4F on the coast.
  8. Table of forecasts for February 2018 Forecaster ______ Region ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _____ C + W ___+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _--1.5 _+0.5 ____+2.0 _+4.5 _+5.3 so_whats_happening ______ (-4%) ____PA / NY __+1.4 _+0.8 _--1.1 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _+1.8 ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+0.8 Mercurial ________C + W ___+0.8 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +2.4 _+1.1 _+1.5 ____+2.0 _+2.4 _+2.5 Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ____+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____+0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___Normal _______ -- -- _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ______0.0 __0.0 __0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___ NYC ____--0.2 _--0.8 _--1.2 ___ --1.9 _+1.6 _+1.5 ____+1.7 _+2.8 _+1.8 DonSutherland.1 __ NYC ____--0.8 _--1.4 _--1.8 ___ --3.0 _+0.2 _+1.6 ____+5.0 _+6.0 _+5.0 H2O _____ (-4%) _ M A ____--0.9 _--1.4 _--2.1 ___ --2.0 _--0.1 _+1.0 ____+2.5 _+3.0 _+1.8 BKViking __ (-2%) _NYC ____--1.0 _--1.2 _--1.2 ___ --2.1 _--0.5 _+0.3 ____+1.5 _+2.8 _+1.5 dmillz25 __ (-4%) _ NYC ____--1.0 _--1.9 _--2.5 ___ --2.5 _--0.9 _+1.3 ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 nrg Jeff _________ TNV ____ --1.0 _--2.0 _--2.0 ___ --4.0 __0.0 _+1.0 ____+3.0 _+5.0 _+3.0 mappy ___ (-4%) _ M A ____ --1.3 _--1.0 _--1.8 ___ --1.6 _--0.2 _+1.3 ____+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 ___ Consensus ___ -- -- _____--1.3 _--1.7 _--1.8 ___ --2.0 _--0.5 _+1.0 ____+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.8 Stebo __________ GL/OV ___ --1.4 _--2.0 _--2.6 ___ --1.2 _--0.5 _+0.7 ____+1.2 _+1.5 _+1.2 RJay ____________ NYC ____--1.5 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ --1.5 _--0.5 _+1.0 ____+4.0 _+4.0 _+2.0 wxallannj ________ NYC ____--1.5 _--1.8 _--1.3 ___ --2.4 _--0.8 _+0.7 ____+2.4 _+3.5 _+2.2 wxdude64 _______ M A _____--1.6 _--2.1 _--1.9 ___ --2.9 _--0.5 _+0.6 ____+1.8 _+3.4 _+1.8 jaxjagman _______ TNV ____--1.8 _--2.2 _--2.8 ___ --1.8 _+0.1 _+1.1 ____+2.7 _+4.7 _+3.2 H2OTown_WX____ N E _____--2.3 _--2.4 _--2.6 ___ --2.5 _--3.2 _--1.3 ____+1.7 _+0.5 _+1.3 Tom ____________ PHL ____--2.4 _--2.2 _--2.2 ___ --4.2 _--1.9 _--0.8 ____--0.9 _+0.5 _+0.7 Orangeburgwx _____ SE ____--2.5 _--1.7 _--0.8 ___ --2.9 _--1.1 _+1.0 ____--2.7 _+0.4 _--1.5 CPcantmeasuresnow NYC ___ --3.4 _--5.0 _--4.4 ___ --2.0 _--1.4 _+1.3 ____+4.3 _+3.5 _+2.1 RodneyS _________ M A ___ --4.4 _--3.8 _--3.0 ___ --6.3 _--3.9 _--1.3 ____+2.6 _+8.1 _+3.1 ______________________________________________________________________________ so far, 21 entries, consensus (median) is 11th ranked value. highest forecasts in red, lowest in blue (Normal is lowest for PHX). mostly the same entrants as January, two new faces, welcome to Orangeburgwx who is handling the SE duties and CPcantmeasuresnow who adds a seventh participant for the NYC crew. The only forum to see any downward change in turnout is TNV at 2 (had 3 last month). Good luck to everyone, and hold on tight because this looks like a wild ride. Consensus is that after a cold start things may reverse at least partially, otherwise I think the eastern and some central forecasts might be 2-3 deg lower. A warm scenario for the west is more widely shared. Lots of spread especially for the eastern three and ORD. DEN will obviously be near a frontal boundary much of the time and this leads to a variety of forecasts (their standard deviation is also higher than most).
  9. Super Bowl Slop Storm

    This appears to be a very marginal event highly dependent on urban heat island and elevation controls for snow outcomes that will range from trace in larger urban areas to 1-2" in higher rural locations (2-4" in mountains). Still some time for it to develop better dynamics but it just hasn't got much energy, it is trudging along without much organization or focus. Sort of like me.
  10. Relaxed late penalties this year (1% each four hours to 18z 2nd) will make that a rather gentle 2% deduction ... we just passed from 3% to 4% ... so I am hoping some of the other January participants will enter soon before the larger penalties begin. Table of entries will follow when it seems that all entries have been posted.
  11. January scoring is final (previous post) and Mercurial is the champion, anchoring Central / Western to first place in the regional rumble, despite a strong performance by the deep NYC crew. I was able to boost Mercurial's individual score in the rumble by tying DonS for high score in the western portion. Third place in the rumble is a tie between Mid Atlantic and Tennessee Valley, with Philadelphia taking fifth place (on SD's score, SD now being Scotty Lightning). Extreme Forecasts Here's a summary of extreme forecasts that succeeded in January. (An extreme forecast must be either the most extreme or second most extreme capturing high score to qualify ... and in our scoring table, a loss is given only if the extreme is not high score but the second most extreme is ... so quite often, a loss in this table is not a bad outcome for the forecaster, depending on how wide of the mark they were. In 2015 to 2017, tracking extreme forecasts, we found that more than half to two-thirds of the months qualified, showing our generally conservative forecasting approach). DCA just missed qualifying (for Scotty Lightning and Normal to share a win, H2OTown_wx a loss), as Mercurial had high score with third coldest forecast. NYC had the same outcome although here Mercurial and several others had higher scores than the extreme entries, but there were only two plus Normal who had a warmer forecast than the outcome. BOS (--0.4) did qualify with H2OTown_wx (-0.1) getting a win, Scotty Lightning and Normal (0.0) sharing a loss. ORD (+0.8) saw Scotty Lightning and Normal (0.0) sharing a win, H2OTown_wx the loss at +2.0 (although a great recovery from where ORD stood at mid-month). ATL (-2.9) failed to qualify, it was fairly close to our consensus and seven of 21 forecasts were colder. IAH (-4.5) gave Stebo (-3.2) a win. DEN (+3.9) produced a win for Mercurial (+2.5). PHX (+4.8) was a winner for NRG Jeff (+4.0). SEA (+3.0) was also warmer than all forecasts and gave DonSutherland.1 (+_2.5) a win. Extreme Forecasts wins and losses DonSutherland1 ________1-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 Normal _______________1-1
  12. I have the feeling the cold pattern will flip near the 15th to 18th with very mild weather ending the month in the central and eastern, hence these numbers (we will be around -5 before this) ... west warm all month. ____ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +3.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___+2.0 _+4.5 _+5.3
  13. I've noticed, in global warming waves are not breaking the western mountains

    Not sure I am totally following the thought of the OP but when Pac systems try to move inland between 47N and 52N there is a lot more mountainous terrain to cross than north or south of that band. 50-51N involves five major ranges each with peaks near 10,000 ft or higher. I live between ranges 2 and 3 in that sequence and we have local rainforest conditions despite fact there is near-desert in valleys 1 and 2 ... and we get a lot of precip so this shows that these waves are losing energy. It's only a two-range crossing in n BC.
  14. February contest and Regional Rumble thread now open at this location: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50880-february-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ or you can enter here. Central/western had two entrants in January and Mercurial has the high score individually (so far based on provisional end of January estimates) anchoring us to second place in the Rumble just behind powerhouse NYC. More help would not hurt our chances.
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