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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    INKAPABL OF EROR
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Burnaby, BC, Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf
  1. I believe the fastest moving Atlantic tropical cyclone on record was the 1938 "Long Island Express." It went from 30 N 75 W at 00z Sept 21 to 35 N 73.5W at 12z, near 40 N at 18z and made landfall on Long Island (41 N) at 21z. By 00z it was in southern VT at 43N. So it gained 13 deg of latitude while shifting about 2 deg east in 24 hours, and was travelling over 60 mph at some points. You have to wonder how well modern computer models would have handled it.
  2. and vice-versa
  3. <<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (January-September) ---=--- >>> ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 23 above for provisional September scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Leading scores for September shown with asterisks, if number greater than 1 with asterisk, that means previous months had best scores, September additional to previous total. All best scores are amended as provisionals change. Meanwhile, best total scores January-August are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded both within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field; this explains some double entries this month. FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ___TOTAL__Best scores, months 1 DonSutherland.1 ____523 _498 _460 _1481___512 _626 _649_1787__ 3268 _001.122.1.3_Jan, May 2 RJay _____________ 476 _523 _480 __1479 ___465 _610 _631 __1706___3185_122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 3 BKViking __________ 478 _464 _478 __1420 ___445 _591 _474 __1530___2950 __000.001 4 Consensus _________466 _452 _431 __1349 ___454 _571 _553 __1598___2947 __010.000 4 wxallannj __________499 _466 _494__1459 ___391 _505 _554 __1470___2929 __002.012..1.0 _Jun 5 Stebo _____________468 _485 _431 __1384 ___397 _566 _573 __1536___2920 __011.11*2.1.0 __ Jul 6 SD _______________ 492 _491 _463 __1446 ___482 _479 _462__1423 ___2869 __0(212)*00.1*.0 _ Sep* 7 hudsonvalley21______445 _427 _422 __1294 ___450 _548 _549__1547___2841 __000.010 8 RodneyS __________ 438 _400 _348 __1186 ___457 _527 _653__1637___2823 __011.201*..0..1 _ Mar 9 Normal ____________404 _413 _400 __1217 ___359 _374 _412__1145 ___2806 __101.000.0.0 __ May 9 Tom ______________491 _435 _413 __1339 ___386 _534 _533__1453___2792 __000.110 10 dmillz25 ___________504 _443 _440 __1387 ___420 _456 _492__1368___2755 __2*00.101 11 wxdude64 _________ 470 _427 _440 __1337 ___409 _482 _473__1364___2701 __120.000..1.0 12 Roger Smith _______ 426 _419 _296 __1141 ___354 _448 _525__1327___2468 __100.001.0.0_Aug 13 Neckbeard93*______ 334 _368 _303 __1005 ___452 _494 _484__1430___2435__111.01*0.1.1* 14 Damage in Tolland __ 371 _359 _334 __1064 ___404 _423 _461__1288___2352 __000.010..0.0 15 so_whats_happening#427_351 _358 __1136 ___350 _434 _427 __1211___ 2347__200.1*00 16 H2Otown_WX~~____ 335 _323 _322 __980 ___217 _345 _330 __ 892___ 1872 __110.001..1.0 17 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 __001.000 18 CCM %%__________ 136 _106_156 __398 ___146 _134 _126 __ 406____ 804 __000.100..0.1 19 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __ 283____ 624 __110.010 20 Maxim^____________ 80 _ 85 _ 78 __ 243 ____ 50 _150 _142 __ 342____585 __100.001 22 rainsucks // ________ 52 _ 76 _100 __ 228 ____ 80 _ 54 _ 94 ___ 228____ 456__001*00.0.1*_Sep* 22 IntenseBlizzard 2014// 80 _ 72 _ 66 __ 218 ____ 50 _ 96 _ 80 ___ 226____ 444 __000.01*0.0.0 23 JBG % _____________88 _ 64 _ 32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___220____ 404 ________________________________________________________________________________ Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - September 2017 (note: Sept 21 16z _ This table has been edited above this line but not to end of table, until this note removed) FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 1 Rjay _______________ 560 _634 _733___1927 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 5122 ( = 2) __ FEB, APR,JUL 2 Consensus ___________581 _635 _708 ___1924 __ 1 0 1* ________ 4881 ( = 3) 2 wxallannj ___________ 580 _659 _682 ___ 1921 __ 0 1 1 __ Sep* ___4860 ( = 3) __ JUN 3 Roger Smith _________523 _611 _780 ___ 1914 __ 0 1*2__ Feb ____4392 (= 11) 4 RodneyS ____________606 _669 _604 ___ 1879 __ 2 1 0 ________ _4712 ( = 5) __ MAR 5 DonSutherland.1 _____ 559 _665 _616 ___ 1840 __ 2 1 0 __ Aug ___5138 ( = 1)__JAN, MAY,AUG 6 BKViking ____________483 _558 _754 ___ 1795 __ 1*0 1* __ Sep*__4755 ( = 4) __ SEP* 7 dmillz25 ____________ 526 _541 _712 ___ 1779 __ 1 0 1 __ Apr ____4544 ( = 8) 8 hudsonvalley21 ______ 483 _604 _630 ___ 1717 __ 0 0 1* _________4570 ( = 7) 9 so_whats_happening#_ 517 _605 _590 ___ 1712 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May_4069 (= 14) 10 Damage in Tolland ____440 _571 _697 ___ 1708 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun ____ 4070 (= 13) 11 Tom _______________ 441 _647 _606 ___ 1694 _________________4496 ( = 9) 12 wxdude64 ___________461 _543 _652 ___ 1656 __ 1 0 0 _________ 4367 (= 12) 13 Stebo ______________ 507 _552 _585 ___ 1644 __ 1 0 0 _________ 4578 ( = 6) 14 SD_________________ 496 _593 _518 ___ 1607 ________________ 4486 (= 10) 14 Normal _____________ 466 _544 _506 __ 1516 __ 0 1 0 _________ 4332 (= 13) 15 Neckbeard93* _______619 _501 _355 ____1475 __ 2 1 0 _________3940 (= 15) 16 H20TownWx~~______ 438 _420 _494 ____1352 __ 0 0 1 _________ 3234 (= 16) 17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ____1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17) 18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (=18) 19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 ________________ 1055 (= 20) 20 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 _________________1168 (= 19) 21 IntenseBlizzard 2014//__ 76 _100 _ 96 ____ 272 __ 0 1*1* _________ 726 (= 21) __ SEP* 22 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 __________ 612 (= 22) 23 rainsucks // __________ 46 _ 46 __ 40 ____ 126 _________________ 558 (= 23) _______________________________________________________________________ NOTES: * one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), ~~ two months missed (July, August) ~ three months missed (July, August, September) ^ three months played (Jan, Feb, Mar) %% two months played (May, June) ... % one month played (July) // one month played (September) Reports on ranking with late penalties removed Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) -- no change in rank March late penalty deductions: ... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). ... those points would change RJay overall from 2nd to 1st, he would remain 2nd in original six and is already first in western. _ Damage, see July _ wxdude64, see September. April late penalty deductions: ... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18). ... H2O_Town__wx see September. Neckbeard would move up one rank in original six, no change of rank in western or all nine. May late penalty deductions: ... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12). ... BKViking would stay 3rd in original six, amd no changes to western or all nine rankings. June late penalty deductions: ... Stebo lost 39 (24,15). ... Stebo would move up to fourth in original six moving ahead of wxallannj in third and also Consensus) and would not move up in western as wxdude64 also adds points to stay ahead; and also would not move up in all nine. July late penalty deductions: ... Damage in Tolland lost 98 (75, 23). annual total now 116 (88, 28) ... Damage in Tolland would remain 14th place in the original six, would move up two places in the western (to 8th) and would remain 13th overall. September late penalty deductions: ... wxdude64 lost 6 (3,3) bringing the annual total to 20 (15,5), and H2OTown_wx lost 17 (9, 8) for an annual total of 68 (34, 34). ... wxdude64 would move up one rank in the original six and would be unchanged in western and all nine. ... H2OTown_wx would not change ranks. __ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters. NEW THIS MONTH __ comparative scoring for Neckbeard93 and so_whats_happening ... These two regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January and so_whats_happening missed April. I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western) and 469 for April (249, 220). Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these two would be Neckbeard93 ____________ 2606 __ 1699 ___ 4305 ____ 12th __ 11th __ 13th so_whats_happening _____ 2606 __ 1932 ___ 4538 _____ 12th __ 1st ___ 9th (these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low).
  4. Arecibo reports now updated to (edit) 1418z, peak gust 98 knots at 1354z (wind still NE to 1418z and still gusting to 96 knots). Degraded eye must be very close now, next hour of reports will probably capture it if the sensors survive the surge. Interesting to note that sustained winds increase from 72 knots at 10m to 78 knots at 20m. If that rate of increase was sustained to 100m (top of high rise buildings in San Juan) it would imply 126 knots at that level -- probably not quite that linear but over 100 knots likely.
  5. The Arecibo reports have updated for 1254z to 1318z and show a slight veering from NNE to NE, peak gust so far was at 1312z, 87 knots. Eye might come very close to this location soon.
  6. On subject of "weakening" at landfall, in these cases where a strong hurricane approaches a hilly or mountainous region, we have to understand that the forward half of the circulation is being squeezed up so there would be some tendency for the surface elements of the eyewall region to be lifted up near the coast, net effect being a pressure rise and wind decrease at sea level but no doubt the cat-5 winds continued on to make an elevated landfall. When Patricia came inland there was evidence that pressures had risen 30-40 mbs in the six hours to landfall but winds at some elevation inland (northwest portion of eyewall) were still representative of lower eye central pressures, so really this discussion is somewhat moot, it depends on where you want to measure the winds -- but officially it is the conditions at the sea level landfall point. Those may not be known for a while but from the radar I suspect there may be patchy cat-5 damage evidence in the right front quarter of the eyewall. There will probably be widespread cat-5 type blowdown on ridges (and unfortunately the radar was located in such a spot).
  7. Just for the historical record in this thread, CNN reporters in San Juan and on east coast just north of landfall have taken cover inside and their videos of outside conditions appear consistent with cat-3 or cat-4 conditions ... they can't stand up to report from even sheltered spots outside. Meanwhile, eye approaching Arecibo on northwest coast, winds steadily increasing to NNE 62 knots gusting 85 knots at 0048z. Observing site on shoreline reports every 6 min, don't think we get to see next ten reports until 0148z transmission (but watching for them). No pressure report from this data buoy.
  8. Rainfalls of 20-30 inches cannot be ruled out over higher ground in PR, based on observed rainfall rates over Guadeloupe last night. Similar intensity typhoons hitting south-central Taiwan have produced 8-12 inch per hour rates and 30-50 inch totals.
  9. Maria within range of PR/VI radar now https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
  10. This Guadeloupe radar is now giving a better image: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html and on the same site, you can access hourly obs from various locations in Guadeloupe. Unfortunately Basse-Terre was not reporting winds in the past hour, rainfalls appear to be 20-30 mm per hour.
  11. The radar reminds me of that emoticon with a head banging against a wall. What I said earlier is of course conjectural, a hurricane this small and intense encountering a hilly but not overly large island could have a variety of solutions. My thinking was that the northern eyewall would be draped over the middle of the island (the really high terrain is in the northwest quadrant) and the 150-200 mph winds would downslope through every river valley to the coast. As for storm surge potential, storm history is important but with this sudden vacuum created by a 30-mb pressure drop, and winds likely to come around to WSW 120 mph, I wouldn't downplay the potential. There was a 15-20 ft storm surge with the 1935 Keys hurricane which was also small and could not be said to be carrying along a long-term cat-5 storm surge either.
  12. There could be a major disaster in the making here and if anyone better connected than me (to large government or military resources) reads this, it would no doubt save lives down the road to begin plans for a rapid response, the local government will not only be overwhelmed, it could easily be obliterated. I envisage a combination of Homestead wind damage and Tacloban storm surge, thousands left with very little shelter and hundreds of injured in massive debris fields (all over the island basically but 75% of population lives in southwest quadrant). There will only be a small trickle of info coming out for 2-3 days but we could assume this need will exist starting in about an hour. Large French resources probably exist very close, although the way this thing is going, city of Basse-Terre will take quite a wallop and Pointe-a-Pitre a major storm surge so that will perhaps tie down those resources. This will be far worse than even St-Maarten. I don't think Roseau is protected at all by terrain or wind direction considerations because of the extreme intensity of this storm. Will be happy to be proven wrong but I expect the place to be flattened and exposed to 20-30 ft storm surge. (this also happened in 1780, and everything on Barbados was destroyed despite them being south of the eye). It should be noted that new moon is just 30 hours away and this will be an aggravating factor down the road in PR and eastern Dominican Republic storm surge potentials.
  13. Radar has almost Andrew-like appearance: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles (different track but Charley 2004 perhaps) Heading straight for Roseau Dominica unfortunately, pray for a wobble.
  14. Maria is on a track running slightly north of that taken by the Great Hurricane of October 1780 which ran from just north of Barbados (on Oct 9) across St Lucia and Martinique then northwest to the Mona Passage west of Puerto Rico. That storm killed over twenty thousand people and from the damage reports must have been a cat-5 when north of Barbados. This storm apparently tracked north-northeast after leaving Hispaniola and missed Bermuda slightly to the southeast. Another interesting factoid is that there had been two previous major hurricanes (three counting one in June), one of which hit New Orleans on August 24 and the other hitting Cuba and the Bahamas about a week before the Great Hurricane. And there was to be yet another major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico ten days later.
  15. The only good thing about this hurricane season is that some of us are learning a lot about the Leeward Islands. Dominica is an independent nation state with just under 100k residents. About one third of those live in or near the capital Roseau which is on the southwest coast, so if the eye tracks across the island they would likely see very strong NE then NW winds and therefore not as protected from storm surge as one might initially suppose. I checked a news website and the island is on high alert with the government warning people to move away from coasts and rivers that might flood, remove potential flying debris etc. Martinique to south and Guadeloupe to north are both integral parts of France and populations of both islands are roughly similar (400k). Guadeloupe is actually two connected islands, Basse Terre and Grande Terre. I was reading that both Hugo and the 1928 "Okeechobee" hurricane devastated the economy of Guadeloupe. Martinique is the island that contains the volcano that erupted in 1902 killing 30k people and changing the location of their capital city in the process. That volcano is near the northern tip of Martinique. Looks to me like Maria will soon be cat-4 and will have major impacts on all three of these islands (regions). I think the eye will go over central Dominica but this will expose southern parts of Basse-Terre region of Guadeloupe to cat-3 winds as the distance to the track is not that large.