Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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    CONTEST ORGANIZER
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
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    Male
  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. Updated anomalies and projections: ____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (8th) ____ (7d anom) _______ +8.9 _+8.2 _+10.5 __+10.6 _+6.0 _+4.4 __ +7.1 _ --0.9 _+6.6 (15th) ___ (14d anom) _____+10.2_+10.0_+12.3__ +9.2_+10.5 _+5.7 ___ +4.1 _--1.4_ +1.0 (22nd) __ (21d anom) ______ +7.4 _ +6.9 _ +8.8 __ +5.3 _ +8.3 _+6.5 ___ +3.3 _--0.2_ +1.3 (8th) ____ (p14d) ___________ +7.0 _+6.5 _+8.0 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _--1.0 _ +1.0 (15th) ___ (p21d) ___________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.5 __ +4.0 _+5.0 _+3.0 ___ +1.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 (22nd) __ (p28d) ____________+5.0 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +3.5 _+5.0 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+1.8 (8th) ____ (24d) _____________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 _ --2.5 (15th) ___ (31d) _____________+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 (22nd) ___ (31d) ____________ +4.5 _+4.0 _+5.0 __ +3.0 _+4.5 _+3.5 ___ +2.0 __0.0 _+2.0 __________________ (8th) _ The month has started out very mild in all regions. Much colder air is pressing south from western Canada and will soon be impacting on those positive anomalies in ORD, DEN and SEA. The effects will be weaker or slower to arrive in the east and south. Even in the outlook period (days 8 to 16) the east coast will remain rather mild with occasional colder interludes, while the severe cold in central regions may begin to shift more to eastern Canada. (15th) _ Large positive anomalies have continued to build over central and eastern regions while the west turned quite cold in the second week. Forecasts for this coming week begin to eat away at the larger anomalies and should see them reduced to contest-range values at some point around the 21st. This trend will peter out later in the month with a more variable regime expected. End of month projections show reduced but still fairly sizeable positive anomalies at most locations. (22nd) _ The huge anomalies at mid-month have been somewhat reduced but not by quite as much as predicted a week ago. The trend from now to end of month looks rather close to average January values and a good chunk of the present anomalies will survive. Will post some preliminary scoring based on these estimates which are by and large higher than most forecasts except for western stations.
  2. Looks like a slowly improving trend over the second half of January from current guidance. No obvious big hits but potential is growing towards end of the current GFS run. I thought this might be a back-loaded winter anyway so if it starts up that quickly, could become epic.
  3. Well I'm old enough to remember the winter of 1966-67, in southern Ontario it was quite a wild ride (I was operating a backyard weather station about 30 miles west of Toronto at that time as a high school senior). November 1966 was very mild and rainy. There was a brief cold spell with a strong arctic high in early December then it warmed briefly to about 60 F. Following that most of late December was rather cold with some snow, not a lot. January 1967 turned very mild in stages, culminating in some record highs on 23rd and 25th. The second of these was again near 60 F. At this point the ground had thawed out and all the previous moderate snow cover was gone. The famous Chicago snowstorm came along the next two days, at my location it was a mixture of rain, sleet, ice pellets and heavy snow with thunder and lightning, quite a storm (we were supposed to write our SAT exams one of those days and it was postponed for a month as a lot of people couldn't get into school). The onset of much colder weather was very fast, after another snowfall of about 7" in early February, it turned bitterly cold and never warmed up much at any point until late March. There was another strong arctic high and record cold morning temperatures on March 17th and 18th. After that it warmed up quite rapidly and records (since broken) were set on the first two days of April. I would think that was one of the most variable winters on record in the region. From what I've seen of the stats from 1905-06 and 1949-50, they ran quite similar in many aspects (I am not quite that old).
  4. Thanks for entering the Jan 2020 contest. Welcome to about half a dozen new and returning forecasters, hope you will continue to participate. And belated thanks to RJay whom I believe has been helping us out through 2019 by pinning these threads on a regular basis. So here are the forecasts. I have added a summary of scoring procedures for the benefit of our new entrants. Your forecasts appear in the same order as DCA forecasts from warmest to coldest, if those are tied, then NYC determines it, etc. Table of forecasts for January 2020 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Brian5671 ____________________ +6.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ 0.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.0 __ --3.0 _ --4.5 _ --4.0 dwave ________________________ +4.3 _ +4.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.3 __ --1.4 _ --2.9 _ --3.0 RodneyS ______________________ +4.3 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +4.2 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 __ +0.2 _ --1.7 _ +0.3 RJay __________________________ +4.2 _ +4.6 _ +4.2 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 __ --1.0 _ --2.2 _ --2.5 wxallannj ______________________+2.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 __ +0.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 __--0.7 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 yoda __________________________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.9 __ +0.4 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 __ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --0.3 Don Sutherland.1 ______________ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.4 BKViking ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 __ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___ Consensus ________________ +2.2 _ +1.8 _ +1.3 __ +0.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 __ -1.0 _ --1.0 _ --0.4 JakkelWx ______________________+2.1 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +0.7 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 __ --1.5 _ --0.2 _ --1.7 wxdude64 _____________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __--1.1 _ --0.9 _ --0.6 Roger Smith ___________________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 __ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --0.5 Tom ___________________________ +1.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.6 __ --0.5 _ --0.2 _ --0.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +0.3 __ --0.7 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 rclab __________________________ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ --1.4 __ --0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.3 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Rhino16 _______________________ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ --0.1 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 __ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____________________________________________________________________ In the table above, highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal is lower for ATL and tied lowest for IAH. Scoring procedures: 1. For most months, scores are based on 100 for a perfect call, less 2 pts per 0.1 error. Scores that would be negative remain zero. 2. For months with anomalies greater than 5.0 (+ or --), the system is similar but for the amount by which the anomaly exceeds 5.0, that portion deducts only one point (at both the low and high ends). Example, you predict +3.5 and outcome is +6.0, your score would be 50 using the first rule, but is boosted by 10 since you lose only one point per 0.1 error from 5.0 to 6.0, making your score 60. Or if you score from zero up, you have 10 points by +1.0 then add another 50 for +2.5 further correct portion. In this way, anyone with the right anomaly sign always gets a non-zero score. If a month ends up with a greater anomaly than +10 (for example, March 2012) then scores are calculated from percentage of anomaly achieved (+8.0 against +12.0 would score 2/3 or 67). 3. If neither of those procedures result in a raw score of 60 or higher from one forecaster, then we go to a "minimum progression" of scores where the closest forecast gets 60, and all others get a pro-rated value down to a zero value for the least accurate forecast. However, any progression score that is lower than your individual raw score would convert to the higher raw score, so you can only gain, not lose, from this rule. As a result of this rule, some forecast always scores at least 60. This month, with 16 forecasts, the step function will be 4 points (60, 56, 52 etc ending in zero). Tied forecasts both or all score the highest of the step values (e.g., three tied for fourth best forecast this month would all get 48 points). 4. Consensus and Normal are scored using all the same rules. Your rank and score assigned, however, is only within the group of forecasters. Consensus and Normal can be allotted intermediate step scores in the progression system, or they may be equal to a forecaster's score. Consensus forecast is the median rather than the mean (to reduce if not eliminate any influence of one or two outliers). I am going to keep track of two scores for Normal, one a contest score, and the other a raw score based on no adjustments from rule one, that way we have a log of the total departure from normal. 5. Late penalties are strictly applied once we get past this month. For 2020, these will be 1% for every four hours or portion late through 36h (possible 9% penalty to 18z 2nd) then a further 1% per hour.
  5. I assume you are asking raindancewx that question, but from my point of view it would not change the outlook. My timing was a bit off, the warming trend in the east began around mid-December rather than early in January. That mid-month reversal happened in other years, notably 1875, 1889, 1936, 1949 and 1964. Most of those were followed by very mild Januaries and first half of Februaries in the east. A general trend towards colder than normal weather late February and March could be noted in those same years. January 1950 was particularly warm in the east and set records in the 70s on the east coast towards the end of the month (25th-26th). Although the lead-in was somewhat different, 1905-06, 1908-09 and 1915-16 as well as 1966-67 converged on the same late January warm signal. Most of those turned a lot colder in February. I think the odds are pretty good that winter 2019-20 will feature a core warm spell with bookend cold periods, and the second phase of cold might be fairly potent when it does arrive. Temperatures in the western Canadian arctic have been running colder than average, so there is a source region available. (-40 at YCB recently).
  6. Not sure how close to the actual count this would be, but Wikipedia currently lists 1,390 confirmed U.S. tornadoes (to Dec 30th) and says the most severe was an EF4 in Alabama on March 2nd.
  7. Will say 1492 and first high risk a major outbreak in the south-central states around Feb 8th-9th.
  8. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  9. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  10. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  11. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  12. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Our top two forecasters for the 2019 contest year were Mid Atl forum members, wxdude64 and RodneyS. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  13. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. From this forum we have a couple of regular entrants, Scotty Lightning and Tom. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  14. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Several well known NYC forum members are regulars, including Don Sutherland, wxallannj, BKViking and hudsonvalley21. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/
  15. Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/