Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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    CONTEST ORGANIZER
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
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    Male
  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. After the first week ... _________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ____ (7d) ________________+3.9_ +4.0 _+1.4 __ +5.9 _+4.6 _+1.9 __ +0.3 _+1.7 _--2.1 ____ (p14d) _____________ +1.0_ +1.0 _--1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 __ --2.0 _+0.5 _--1.0 ____ (p24d) ______________ 0.0__ 0.0 _--2.0 __ --1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.5 _+0.5 __ 0.0 (8th) _ The trends in the coming week appear fairly cold relative to normal, and this remains the case to some extent in the longer range although departures do not look very great. Quite a few of the locations are slowly trending towards a near normal overall outcome after this faintly warm start, more or less the afterglow of the warm March we just finished.
  2. Thanks, RJay, as a friend of the contest in many ways, and in view of extenuating circumstances which you explained to me privately, I am going to post your forecast with just a small time penalty that would protect the field given that you had a bit of extra information by posting time. But I won't apply the entire penalty. As I mentioned, anyone else who (in coming months) has more pressing concerns at forecast time should feel free to seek a partial waiver on late penalties. I am just going to say -x% for now and see what I think is fair after assessing a few things that aren't in my head right now, such as trends in modelling since 1st, and differential from consensus in the forecast submitted. Anyone who would like to offer an opinion on this, would prefer in private message.
  3. Forecasts for April, 2020 FORECASTER _________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Maxim ________________ +4.5 _+4.2 _+4.0 ___+5.9 _+3.6 _+4.0 __ +2.2 _--1.0 _--1.3 Brian5671 _____________+4.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 ___+3.0 _+5.0 _+4.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 BKViking ______________+3.4 _+3.3 _+2.8 ___+2.2 _+4.0 _+2.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 wxdude64 _____________+3.1 _+2.9 _+2.6 ___+1.6 _+3.1 _+3.3 __ --1.1 _--1.6 _--2.6 JakkelWx _____________ +2.9 _+3.0 _+1.3 ___+1.9 _+3.5 _+2.7 __ --0.1 _+0.8 _--0.5 RodneyS ______________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+0.7 _+2.8 _+4.5 __ --0.2 _--0.2 _--1.9 ___ Consensus ________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+1.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.8 wxallannj _____________ +1.7 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+1.7 __ +1.2 _--1.0 _--2.3 RJay ___ (tbd) ________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom __________________ +1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.8 _+2.5 __ --0.3 _+0.3 _--1.5 Scotty Lightning ______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 (-2%) _ +0.9 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.3 _+0.9 _+0.7 __ +0.3 _--0.1 _--0.4 DonSutherland.1 ______ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___--1.0 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --0.5 _+0.2 _--1.5 ___ Normal _____________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith __________ --0.5 _--0.8 _--1.0 ___ --2.2 _--1.0 _--1.5 __--3.0 _--1.5 _--0.8 ______________________________________________________________________ Color codes reveal the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location.
  4. < < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Mar) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________246_212 _211 __ 669 __253_171_170 __ 594 __1263 __202_188_200__590 ____ 1853 wxallannj __________________168 _194 _189 __ 551 __155 _149 _134 __ 438 __ 989 __156_242_188__586_____1575 RJay _______________________220 _236_165 __ 621 __ 99 _ 137 _128 __ 364 __ 985 __ 146 _218_152__516 ____1501 Brian5671 _________________ 237 _213 _187 __ 637 __ 72 _ 228_172 __ 472 __1109 ___ 41 _189_147__377 ____1486 Don Sutherland.1 ___________172 _182_155 __ 509 __195 _126_124 __ 445 __ 954 __ 114 _170 _212__496 ____1450 ___ Consensus ______________148 _148 _175 __ 471__131 _139_146 __ 416 __ 887 __132 _252_178__562 _____1449 BKViking ___________________161 _159 _175 __ 495__151 _141 _126__ 418 __ 913 __ 132 _239_156__527 ____1440 hudsonvalley21 _____________124 _142 _161 __ 427__141 _135_116__ 392 __ 819 __148 _266_168__582 ____1401 Tom _______________________ 111 _111 _133 __ 355__110 _134_119__ 363 __ 718 __ 119 _260_177__556 ____1274 wxdude64 __________________ 82 __ 74 __ 91 __ 247 __ 98 _125 _167__ 390 __ 637 __ 114 _238_161__513 ____1150 Scotty Lightning _____________50 __ 44 __ 65 __ 159 __ 82 _117_162__ 361 __ 520 __ 120 _236_202__558 ____1078 Roger Smith ________________ 52 __ 55 __ 98 __ 205 __ 89 _127_136 __ 352 __ 557 __ 134 _116 _ 56__306 _____ 863 ___ Normal __________________04 __ 04 __ 30 __ 038 __ 52 _ 46 _ 94 __ 192 __ 230 __ 92 _ 260_ 212__ 564 _____ 794 yoda _ (2/3) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 JakkelWx _ (1/3) ____________ 28 __ 21 __ 40 __ 089 __ 07 _ 37 _ 48 __ 092 __ 181 ___ 12 _ 88 _ 06 __ 106 _____ 287 rclab _ (1/3) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/3) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Rhino16 _ (1/3) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 22 of 27 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 18 for warmest and 4 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 8 - 1 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 5 - 1 RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 2 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to March Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Only those who have any best scores are listed. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0
  5. -0.5 __ -0.8 __ -1.0 __ -2.2 __ -1.0 __ -1.5 __ -3.0 __ -1.5 __ -0.8 (late penalties will start soon but will waive for any legit cause)
  6. Predict the temperature anomalies for nine locations relative to the 1981-2010 averages ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline for entries is 06z April 1st, with late penalties applying from then to 18z April 2nd, larger penalties kick in at that point. Good luck !!
  7. I do have an excel file that I hope to make available after some cleaning up and quality control. The station has changed its operating procedures twice since 2003 and still exists at least in the format of daily temps, precip and snow depth. To maintain the record, I will need to estimate the snowfall from a combination of snow depth reports and closest actual measurements, plus any clues I can derive from reading reports here or on the Weather Network. I am hoping to make an appeal to the powers that be, to restore the level of observations in coming winters -- the other parts of the year do not suffer that much from the reduced format. I can't promise this excel file will be up within days, but will set end of April as a target date. It is fine for my own use because I know where everything is but it kind of grew out of a much different file that I was maintaining for my research and needs to be edited severely for anyone else to find their way around in it. Also, the core of the data is the original Fahrenheit temps and I have not logged daily precip, only noted the monthly totals and the daily records. Trying to decide how to proceed on all those fronts. However, there is no deadline, I can continue to improve the file going forward from any feedback that I get. So the short answer is yes, an excel file will be available within a relatively short period of time.
  8. Final scoring for March 2020 Scoring is based on the provisional forecasts for end of the month (two posts back).IAH will probably require a scoring boost (max 60 rule). The two lowest raw scores remain as they would be higher than the adjusted progression scores. The late penalties are shown in separate scoring lines after raw scores (in orange type) but for wxdude64, who could only drop one point, raw scores are shown with * meaning a deduction of one point. Scores in bold are high and the color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts are retained. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ____ TOTAL DonSutherland.1 ___________68 _ 81 _ 80 __ 229 __ 98 _ 37 _ 24^__ 159 _ 388 __ 78 _ 84 _ 88 __ 250 _____ 638 RodneyS __________________ 78 _ 69 _ 90 __ 237 __ 86 _ 22 _ 54^__ 162 _ 399 __ 88 _ 48 _ 66 __ 202 _____ 601 RJay ______________________ 86 _ 95 _ 60 __ 241 __ 52 _ 20 _ 24^__ 096 _ 337 __ 48 _ 84 _ 96 __ 228 _____ 565 hudsonvalley21 ____________54 _ 67 _100__ 221 __ 76 _ 18 _ 30^__ 124 _ 345 __ 70 _ 88 _ 60 __ 218 _____ 563 wxallannj __________________58 _ 71 _ 90 __ 219 __ 82 _ 20 _ 24^__ 126 _ 345 __ 68 _ 68 _ 80 __ 216 _____ 561 ___ Consensus ____________ 54 _ 67 _100 __ 221 __ 64 _ 20 _ 30^__ 114 _ 335 __ 68 _ 80 _ 70 __ 218 _____ 553 BKViking __________________ 64 _ 73 _ 92 __ 229 __ 88 _ 20 _ 10 __ 118 _ 347 __ 46 _ 80 _ 88 __ 214 __ 561 _______________(-4%) _______ 61 _ 70 _ 88 __ 219 __ 84 _ 20 _ 10 __ 114 _ 333 __ 44 _ 77 _ 84 __ 205 _____ 538 Brian5671 _________________ 46 _ 45 _ 70 __ 161 __ 02 _ 77 _ 60^__ 139 _ 300 __ 38 _ 96 _ 94 __ 228 __ 528 ______________(-3%) ________ 45 _ 44 _ 68 __ 157 __ 02 _ 75 _ 58 __ 135 _ 292 __ 37 _ 93 _ 91 __ 221 _____ 513 wxdude64 ___ (-1%) ________ 48 _ 52*_ 83*__183 __ 63*_ 22_ 36^__ 121 _ 304 __ 73*_ 69*_61*__203 _____ 507 Tom _______________________36 _ 47 _ 82 __ 165 __ 40 _ 20 _ 12 __ 072 _ 237 __ 68 _ 82 _ 70 __ 220 __ 457 ____________ (-7%) __________33 _ 44 _ 76 __ 153 __ 37 _ 19 _ 11 __ 067 _ 220 __ 63 _ 76 _ 65 __ 204 _____ 424 Roger Smith _______________ 26 _ 35 _ 70 __ 131 __ 42 _ 20 _ 48^__ 110 _ 241 __98 _ 44 _ 26 __ 168 _____ 409 Scotty Lightning ___________ 16 _ 15 _ 50 __ 081 __ 22 _ 20 _ 48^__ 090 _ 171 __ 58 _ 64 _ 56 __ 178 _____ 349 ___ Normal _________________00 _ 00 _ 30 __ 030 __ 02 _ 00 _ 00 __ 002 _ 032 __ 58 _ 84 _ 66 __ 208 _____ 240 _________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts DCA, NYC, ORD, ATL and IAH -- the warmest forecasts have prevailed, earning two wins for RJay (DCA, NYC) and Brian5671 (ATL, IAH) and one for DonSutherland1 (ORD). At PHX (-0.8) the coldest forecast has won, one more for Brian5671 (total of three this month). At SEA (-1.7) the high score was second coldest (RJay -1.5) so he has a win and Brian5671 (-2.0) adds a loss to the three wins. At DEN the final value (+2.1) gives Roger Smith a win (+2.0) and RodneyS (+2.6) a loss. BOS ended up in the middle of our range and did not qualify. Annual update to follow, and this table subject to adjustments as the actual values are reported.
  9. Update on the no-fall contest ... Here's an update on the snowfall contest. FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Snowfall to date (Mar 31) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.1 ___ 30.1 __38.3 _ 64.6 ___ 53.9 __ 0.7 _ 69.5 Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1 wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4 BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8 Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0 Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0 DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0 ___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 32 ______ 68 ___ 82 ___ 67 _____ 78 ___ 8.7 __ 74 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ In a few days I will post a scoring table, to be updated (for DEN mostly) until snow stops falling (there). It is quite unusual, I believe, for both DCA and SEA to have an essentially snowless winter, usually it would be one but not the other. Preliminary scoring for the snowfall contest Due to the low snowfall totals, unless shown in red, all these departures are errors on the higher side, and can be reduced if any further snowfall occurs at any locations (still quite possible for DEN and perhaps the inland northeast). FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ____ TOTAL wxallannj _____________________ 21.8 _ 28.7 _ 29.6 ____ 8.8 __ 0.5 __ 5.0 ___ 12.6 __ 6.5 __ 9.9 ___ 123.4 BKViking ______________________18.4 _ 31.2 _ 35.9 ___ 11.9 __ 9.3 _ 19.4 ____ 1.1 __ 7.3 __ 7.5 ___ 142.0 RodneyS ______________________13.8 _ 20.3 _ 24.9 ____ 4.9 __ 0.3 _ 35.4 ____ 26.1 __3.3 _ 18.5 ___ 147.5 DonSutherland1 ________________9.4 _ 18.7 _ 20.9 ____ 0.1 __ 3.3 __ 45.4 ___ 29.1 __ 5.8 _ 20.5 ___ 153.2 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 32.6 ___ 12.1 _ 14.3 _ 26.7 ____ 7.2 __ 9.7 _ 19.3 ___ 163.5 ___ consensus (mean) _________ 16.9 _ 28.8 _ 32.1 ____ 14.0 __ 7.6 __31.1 ____ 14.3 __ 7.3 _ 24.5 ___ 176.6 Scotty Lightning _______________11.4 _ 19.2 _ 20.9 ___ 17.9 _ 28.7 _ 40.4 _____8.9 __13.3 _ 20.5 ___ 181.2 Tom __________________________ 27.0 _ 43.3 _ 44.7 ___ 14.4 __1.5 _ 33.0 ____ 14.7 __ 4.1 _ 15.6 ___ 198.3 wxdude64 ____________________ 20.0 _ 37.7 _ 39.0 ___ 20.5 _ 14.4 _ 36.3 ___ 15.9 __ 8.9 _ 27.9 ___ 220.6 Roger Smith __________________ 14.9 _ 33.7 _ 40.7 ___ 30.4 _ 21.9 _ 37.9 ____ 55.8__ 6.8 _ 41.0 ___ 283.1 __________________________________________________________________________________ Standings are subject to change, especially if DEN picks up more snow, as the contest leader (wxallannj) will be accumulating error with additional DEN snowfall, and second place BKV has only 1.1" left before starting to do the same; third and fourth place Rodney and DonSutherland1 have some snow left to give -- Rodney can overtake the leader if 12" or more should fall at DEN. Otherwise it would appear that a few more inches at say BTV or ORD-DTW would make no great difference to the outcome. So we await further developments at DEN.
  10. The Toronto (downtown) weather observatory was founded near its current location in 1840 and began compiling data on March 1st, 1840. So we have recently passed the 180th year milestone of more or less continuous observations at this location (which is near the University of Toronto or the northwest margin of the central business district). While the setting is slightly parkland by mid-town standards, it is not as modified a location as New York's Central Park observatory might be. My data analysis includes ranking all months, before and after applying an urban heat island filter to reflect the growth of the city from a small town (with presumably no urban effects) in the first few decades, to a mid-sized city by turn of the 20th century, to a large metropolitan area by 1950. All of the data compiled can be seen at this link over on the UK equivalent of this forum, Net-weather. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-180-years/ My plan is to transfer all of this information to a free-standing website just for the security aspects, but that may take a month or two. So for now this is the only place where the Toronto-180 project can be seen. You'll find a lot of information there including all daily records and notes on historical weather events. If you happen to have any information that didn't make my study, or feel any corrections are needed, please let me know,. This is a work in progress. My urban heat island factor was a rather conservative 1.1 C (2.0 F) adjustment to the recent data, and a scaled fraction of that from 1881 to 1980. It could be argued that the city has a larger heat island than 1.1 C, but a lot of weather patterns in the Great Lakes are UHI-unfriendly, for example, cold and wet spells, windy weather and cloudy conditions in general. The 1.1 C is really a blend of a few occasions of 3-5 C or more urban heating, and long intervals of smaller or zero increases. One needs to separate out the urban effect from the site's natural climatic tendency being close to the Lake Ontario shoreline (4-5 kms inland at various times in the 180 year history). Even with no city there, the location would see a natural warming tendency in southeast winds in winter, changing some mixed precipitation over to rain. The urban heat island probably adds somewhat to that geographical tendency. For whatever combination of reasons, winter snowfall is shown to have decreased by 30% in recent decades, and those had decreased by an even larger amount relative to the bonanza snowfall winters of about 1860 to 1875. There are some surprises in the adjusted temperatures even if my UHI estimate is too low. The warmest September becomes 1881, and the warmest July even before adjustments was 1921. The warmest January was 1932. It's not all about modern warming although there is plenty of that in evidence (in particular, record high minima are being set at a rapid pace in recent decades). Whatever your opinions on climate change, you'll find this an interesting data base. My objective was to produce something to rival the CET (and EWP) data bases for both longevity and data quality. I have spent a long time amassing these data, starting from a printed publication issued in 1968 covering the years 1840 to 1967. I've had that since a few days after it appeared in print and marked it up extensively. The rest of the data came from the on-line historical data section of the Environment Canada website. I also cross-checked my computer files built up over the past twenty years from the printed version and the on-line additions for accuracy. With this volume of data, it's perhaps inevitable that one or two typographical errors might remain but I did go through the ranking tables with a special program designed to verify that all years appeared once and only once, and in the correct location. I'm hoping hard work will prove to be an antidote to the virus but maybe living in the middle of nowhere might help also.
  11. Here's an update on anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 18th _____ (17 d) __________ +7.1 _+8.0 _+6.0 __+6.7 _+5.0 _+8.4 __+5.4 _+1.8 _--2.5 25th _____ (24d) ___________+6.9 _+6.6 _+4.7 __+5.0 _+6.3 _+8.4 __+2.6 _+0.1 _--1.7 18th ____ (p24 d) __________ +5.0 _+5.5 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+3.5 _+6.0 __+3.5 _+1.0 _--1.5 18th ____ (p31 d) __________ +4.5 _+4.5 _+3.0 __+2.5 _+2.5 _+4.0 __+2.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 25th ____ (p31 d) __________ +6.0 _+6.0 _+5.0 __+4.0 _+7.0 _+8.0 __+2.0 __0.0 _--1.0 Final anomalies ___________ +6.4 _+5.5_+3.7e__+4.9_+7.3 _+8.3 __+2.1 _--0.8 _--1.7 __________________________________________________________ Current GFS guidance suggests temperatures somewhat closer to average than the warm start for the month, but except for the western states, anomalies will remain significantly above normal. Small negative anomalies for SEA may largely disappear in coming days but a few colder days are indicated in the outlook. FWIW, there's a major arctic outbreak coming for April 1st in the Great Lakes and northeast. (25th) _ Updated through the 24th and projections look very warm for the eastern and central locations, although only slightly warmer than our higher forecasts, so well done to most ... will post some provisional scores in a while. (1st April) _ Final anomalies are posted (as of 1230z) except for BOS which is estimated from 30th CF6 and 31st climate reports. Scoring adjustments will be ongoing until scoring post title changes to Final Scoring.
  12. It was the 10th mildest winter in the past 180 at Toronto (unadjusted for urban heat island, if adjusted, would rank 15th). Some fairly similar winters include 1918-19 and 1932-33. So far there hasn't been much sign of a late winter recovery, seems that the most likely outcome will be a gradual transition to a warmer than average spring. I can't imagine a more boring winter than this, weather-wise, on a global basis. Even Moscow is too warm.
  13. Forecasts for March, 2020 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay _______________________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.5 __+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___--0.5 __0.0 _-1.5 RodneyS __________________ +4.6 _+3.7 _+4.0 __+4.2 _+2.2 _+3.0 ___+2.6 _+1.8 __0.0 DonSutherland.1 ___________+4.1 _+4.3 _+4.5 __+5.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 ___+1.0 __0.0 _--1.1 BKViking _____ (-4%) _______+3.9 _+3.9 _+3.9 __+4.3 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___--0.6_ +0.2_ --1.1 wxallannj _________________ +3.6 _+3.8 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___+0.5_ +0.8_ --0.7 hudsonvalley21 ____________+3.4 _+3.6 _+3.5 __+3.7 _+1.8 _+1.7 ___+0.6_ --0.2_ +0.3 ___ Consensus ____________ +3.4 _+3.6 _+3.5 __+3.1 _+2.0 _+1.7 ___+0.5_ +0.2_ --0.2 wxdude64 ___ (-1%) _______ +3.1 _+2.9 _+2.7 __+3.1 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___+0.8_ +0.7_ +0.2 Brian5671 ___ (-3%) _______ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___0.0 _+5.0 _+3.5 ___--1.0_ --1.0_ --2.0 Tom ________ (-7%) ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.6 __+1.9 _+2.0 _+1.2 ___+0.5_ +0.1_ --0.2 Roger Smith ______________ +2.0 _+2.0_ +2.0 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___+2.0_ +2.0_ +2.0 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.5 _+1.0_ +1.0 __+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____0.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _______________________________________________________________________ Consensus is the median of 11 forecasts or the 6th ranked forecast. Color codes show warmest and coolest forecasts, but Normal is lower for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH and equal for ORD. ... Will move over the snowfall contest for easier reference and plenty of laffs.
  14. Four Seasons -- Winter 2019-20 scoring This year, I will go back to a simpler format for this contest within a contest. Just points for total score ... ten for top score, seven for second highest, and down from there to one point for eighth (nothing for 9th or 10th this time). So this is the first of four scoring rounds in the four seasons contest. FORECASTER ___________________ Dec-Jan-Feb total points _____ Four seasons points RodneyS ________________________ 1751 ________________________ 10 wxallannj _______________________ 1615 __________________________ 7 BKViking _______________________ 1483 __________________________ 6 DonSutherland 1 ________________1391 __________________________ 5 hudsonvalley21 _________________ 1388 __________________________4 Tom ____________________________ 1296 __________________________3 Scotty Lightning ________________ 1220 __________________________ 2 wxdude64 ______________________ 1190 __________________________1 ________________________________________________ Consensus with 1410 would also score 5.
  15. < < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Feb) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS _____________________168_143 _121 __ 432 __167_149_116 __ 432 __ 864 __114_140_134__388_____1252 wxallannj ____________________ 110 _123 _ 99 __ 332 __ 73 _129 _110 __ 312 __ 644 __ 88_174_108__370 _____1014 Brian5671 ____________________192_169_119__ 480 __ 70 _ 153_114 __ 337 __ 817 __ 04 _ 96 _ 56 __ 156 _____ 973 RJay _________________________ 134 _141_105__ 380 __ 47 _117_104 __ 268 __ 648 __ 98 _134_ 56 __ 288 _____ 936 BKViking _____________________ 100 _ 89 _ 87 __ 276 __ 67 _121 _116 __ 304 __ 580 __ 88 _162_ 72 __ 322 _____ 902 ___ Consensus ________________ 94 _ 81 _ 75 __ 250 __ 67 _119_116 __ 302 __ 552 __ 64 _172_108 __ 344 _____ 896 Tom ___________________________ 78 _ 67 _ 57 __ 202 __ 73 _115_108__ 296 __ 498 __ 56 _184_112 __ 352 _____ 850 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 70 _ 75 _ 61 __ 206 __ 65 _117_ 86 __ 268 __ 474 __ 78 _178_108 __ 364 _____ 838 Don Sutherland.1 ______________104 _101_ 75 __ 280 __ 97 _ 89_100 __ 286 __ 566 __ 36 _ 86 _124 __ 246 _____ 812 Scotty Lightning ________________34 _ 29 _ 15 __ 078 __ 60 _ 97_114 __ 271 __ 349 __ 62 _172_146 __ 380 _____ 729 yoda ___________________________64 _ 43 _ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686 wxdude64 _____________________ 34 _ 22 _ 08 __ 064 __ 35 _103_131__ 269 __ 333 __ 41 _169_100__ 310 _____ 643 ___ Normal _____________________04 _ 04 _ 00 __ 008 __ 50 _ 46 _ 94 __ 190 __ 198 __ 34 _ 176_146__ 356 _____ 554 Roger Smith ___________________ 26 _ 20 _ 28^__ 074 __ 47 _107_ 88 __ 242 __ 316 __ 36 _ 72 _ 30 __ 138 _____ 454 JakkelWx _ (1/2) ________________28 _ 21 _ 40 __ 089 __ 07 _ 37 _ 48 __ 092 __ 181 __ 12 _ 88 _ 06 __ 106 _____ 287 rclab _ (1/2) ____________________05 _ 00 _ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/2) __________________ 72 _ 75 _ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Rhino16 _ (1/2) ________________ 00 _ 05 _ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings 14 of 18 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 12 for warmest and two for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 5 - 0 RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 5 - 0 Scotty Lightning __2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0 Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January and February Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Only those who have any best scores are listed. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb wxallannj ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0