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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Rank
    FREE SAMPLE ONLY $29.95
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    New Denver BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    So the project is to turn this into a cat-2 in a couple of days. Good luck with that. Maybe no surge guy can assist. (I noticed that no surge guy went from no surge to "won't last long" which you have to wonder, how brief is an okay surge?). I hope those Tyndall folks can back up their 150-170 mph estimates, not because I doubt them at all but because it will be helpful for the eventual decisions about how strong this really was at landfall. Thinking 70% likely cat-4 and 30% possible cat-5 somewhere in the zone, but we may never know for sure.
  2. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    This tweet is interesting, wonder if we will see any proof of this assertion:
  3. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    Going to post this in the main thread too, cannot comment on the accuracy but very interesting: (from twitter, this didn't post quite the way it looks on my reply screen)
  4. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    A footnote, the 2000 Michael was no dud either, it became a cat-2 hurricane just before hitting isolated villages on the south coast of Newfoundland and it did some damage there, I don't recall all the details but if that same storm had hit Long Island then this would have had a different name than Michael.
  5. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.
  6. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    SENC, all of the data-based arguments you have presented fall into one of two categories: (a) the data were incomplete due to instrument failure before the strongest winds, or (b) the data are correct but are taken from locations that nobody claims to have been in the strongest wind zone. I'm surprised you haven't figured this out for yourself, even as dim an intellect as my own managed to reach these conclusions. To be more specific, it is quite plausible that winds continued to increase at Tyndall AFB and the Panama City buoy, review your own data and you'll see that both cut out and stopped reporting. And the Panama City Beach and Tyndall Tower (located south of Cape San Blas) data are correct but pressures will show you how far they were outside the core. I don't see any evidence that you're disputing the central pressure being around 920 mb at landfall. So how could that possibly be a cat-2? Then there's the entire issue of no data yet known at least for wind speeds between Tyndall AFB and Appalachicola. For that we have only secondary evidence such as the widespread damage at Mexico Beach.
  7. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    Near the time of landfall there was a 35 mb pressure difference between the two reporting buoys at Panama City and Panama Beach, located maybe 10 miles apart. Tyndall AFB was reporting 924 mb when the station went off-line (with northeast winds gusting to 119 knots). If the usual ratio of RFQ to back side prevailed, Mexico Beach or some location a bit closer to Panama City possibly would have been 1.3 to 1.5 times that with the same pressure. (1.3 x 120 = 156 knots, about 175 mph right?). But I suspect the ratio may have been more like 1.1 in this storm due to unequal radar signatures indicating squallier conditions on the normally weaker side, so perhaps 132 knots instead. I don't think we will ever know except from secondary evidence and that will include damage that might have been partially due to wind and partially due to storm surge. In any case, the 918 mb pressure tells most of the story. Also that 119 knots may not have been the peak wind gust at Tyndall, although it occurred quite close to the maximum radar wind potential just as the eyewall was coming on shore.
  8. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    This discussion about the real wind speeds (on land) is pointless because (a) instruments failed before those might have been recorded at some locations, and (b) we have yet to see any documented evidence of actual wind speeds near Mexico Beach. There may be none available. Sometimes an assertion can be true for unexpected reasons too. If there's a 12-15 foot storm surge with waves added, the maximum winds will be dislocated higher by at least 12-15 feet. Look at the readings from any ocean buoy in a passing eyewall situation. They rarely get anywhere near the dropsonde measured wind speeds within 50 feet of the mean sea surface, partly because of the low exposure altitudes and partly because of the wave environment. It's hard to get a 145 mph wind between two 30' waves. This was no cat-2 but a sustained cat-3 will do considerable damage, a lot of the outcome depends on duration rather than peak gusts. I was living near a tornado path about thirty years ago and watched very brief gusts hit trees near my home that seemed to be EF-2 (like the tornado itself) but they only lasted a few seconds and the trees were not destroyed as they would have been if the gusts had continued for 2-3 minutes.
  9. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The radar loops (and this was apparent in real time also) indicate that the usual RFQ stronger than opposite side of eyewall may have been modified somewhat in this hurricane because the radar intensity was always quite a bit higher over Panama City than on the Mexico Beach side. That is not to say wind speeds were higher but I have to wonder if they weren't close to being equal due to the squally nature of the stronger echoes on the so-called weak side. Also the damage in Mexico Beach may be a combined result of wind and storm surge. I think any speculation that the hurricane was less than cat-4 at landfall is based on assumptions that the wind speeds recorded are the main test, but of course if wind recordings go down due to equipment failure, that argument is pointless. The only real debate will be whether the storm attained cat-5 at any point near or during landfall. That was about the same debate that occurred for Patricia in southern Mexico a few years ago, with mixed opinions. Anyway, Josh was in Tacloban and at the landfall site of Patricia, so he's seen two of the strongest landfalling hurricanes of recent years. If he's impressed, that's good enough for me.
  10. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    That main thread is like this one, only longer with a few interruptions from people who seem to be meteorologists or something.
  11. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I guess it's not really air B n B if you arrive by water.
  12. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    In a recent ob, PAC1 buoy pressure was about 35 mb lower than PAB located about ten miles to its west (roughly 930 vs 965). Wind sensors failed at 90 knots at PAC1 but continued in the 50-80 knot range further west (direction there being NNW).
  13. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As per Google earth, Mexico Beach is a 2-3 mile long strip of flat land with a population of about 2 or 3 thousand people, and the only building of any size appears to be the "El Governor" Hotel right on the coast, a four storey concrete structure that, based on previous Josh encounters with eyewalls (e.g. Patricia) is almost certain to get its roof blown off. There are several mobile home parks also. A 15 foot storm surge would likely go right through this location as the general elevation seems to be lower than 12 feet. I hope most of the people in that town evacuated yesterday. An Andrew-Homestead outcome is certainly possible around there.
  14. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Bookmark this location for the late overnight hours https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
  15. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Center appears to be due south of Fort Walton Beach on radar and motion is due north in past hour.
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