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Orangeburgwx

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About Orangeburgwx

  • Birthday 10/19/1994

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOGB
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Orangeburg, SC
  • Interests
    I have been looking at weather since I was 5, but have been studying patterns since the February 2010 snowstorm...

    Was one of Ken Aucoin's weather spotters for several years.

    There are multiple guarantees with SE snow threats: 1) NW trend applies 99.98% of the time, 2) someone will ALWAYS get screwed by the warm nose

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  1. Orangeburgwx

    2019 Tropical Weather Discussion

    For what it is worth: 12z GFS spawns Tropical Storm Barry off the Carolina coast next weekend (second run in a row) 12z FV3 is off its rocker with a 961mb hurricane in the Bay of Campeche 12z CMC was a goose egg (BUT no 100° temps) 12z EURO just started rolling
  2. Orangeburgwx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    No freaking lie...
  3. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    I can verify, got hit with the outflow
  4. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    My temp is 81, getting 20+mph gusts from due South
  5. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    Right now I got sunshine, but am now under a Tornado Watch
  6. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    I'm in the moderate, lets go!
  7. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    One of those is parked right over my house in that image.... 50+mph winds?
  8. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    We are in the dead of night and they are moving quicker, no surprise
  9. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    This T skew over my house for tomorrow... Not gonna be a fun day for me:
  10. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    And that makes things worse for us downstream of where it is at now... Because it will increase instabity .
  11. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Florida into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen as it pivots northeast out of MS/AL across eastern TN/KY, with a leading midlevel speed max in excess of 100 kt. Meanwhile a cold front will strengthen and surge eastward across GA and the western Carolinas during the afternoon while 60s F dewpoints are maintained to the east. Shear profiles will be strong, with 50+ kt southerly 850 mb winds aiding potential damaging winds or tornadoes throughout the day. ...Northern FL...Eastern GA...Carolinas...VA... A line of storms, possibly severe, will be ongoing Friday morning across central GA into the Florida Panhandle along the cold front. Strong winds veering with height will favor supercells embedded within the line producing damaging wind or tornadoes with dewpoints in the 68-70 F range. This line will likely remain severe into southeast GA into early afternoon, with a gradual decrease in threat with southward extent into FL. Heating will occur ahead of the frontal line, leading to an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from FL to southern VA. Given the track of the upper low, there will not be much cooling aloft ahead of the cold front, leading to less favorable lapse rates aloft and marginal instability. Still, sufficient levels of instability will be attained given very strong southerly deep-layer mean winds and low-level shear to support supercells within the line. Swaths of damaging wind and a few tornadoes are expected as storms move rapidly northeastward during the day, mainly from GA into VA.
  12. Orangeburgwx

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    Even with just a 10% chance, downdrafts and hail are going to be a major problem and combined with heavy flooding, it will be a mess
  13. Orangeburgwx

    General Severe Weather

    Yeah but when the EURO backs it up?...
  14. Orangeburgwx

    General Severe Weather

    This is from 1025pm (waiting on the update) Friday, a cold front riddled with convection will work through the CWA from west to east. I have high confidence that everyone will see rain, starting in the northwestern counties during the morning, then reaching the eastern areas by afternoon. We are still 2 days away from the event, so there could be some adjustments needed to the timing. As far as the severe threat is concerned, the current slight risk from SPC looks like the most reasonable course of action this far in advance. However, it would not surprise to see the enhanced risk expanded westward by at least a couple of tiers of counties when the new Friday forecast from SPC comes out overnight. Shear looks to be very strong Friday, with the area in the favorable quadrant 100+ knot jet at 500 mb. Instability will be modest because mid lapse lapse rates will only be seasonable, but it won`t take a ton of CAPE to cause problems given the expected bulk shear. The biggest area of uncertainty lies with the convective evolution, as well as the mesoscale high/low couplet that should form with forcing this strong. The GFS is not picking up well on this, whereas the 00Z/06Z ECMWF and the 12Z hi res guidance do have a reflection of this evolution. If the ECMWF/NAM solution is correct with the mesolow moving north northeastward bisecting the CWA on Friday, areas along and east of the mesolow track will have an enhanced risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, due to increased low level helicity, increased surface convergence, and the potential for stronger rear inflow jets behind any bow echos that form. Unfortunately, our models are simply not good enough yet to forecast the exact evolution of these features 48 hours in advance, so we just have to mention the possibility in our discussions and hope we can refine things more as we get closer to the event. There will also be some heavy rain with the front as PWs increase to 1.5+ inches under strong divergence aloft. At this time, excessive amounts do not seem likely due to the quick speed of the front, but local issues may arise that could require flood advisories, or possibly a warning or two in our flashy areas. One other issue Friday will be the winds ahead of the front. Given the strong winds expected at 850 mb, we will likely have strong enough winds mixing down to warrant at least a Lake Wind Advisory, if not a full on Wind Advisory.
  15. Orangeburgwx

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    A friend of mine on vacation in Germany thought it would be a good idea to gloat that he saw snow today...
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