Sunday is shaping up to be an active day in the mountains.
SPC AC 120730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday -- centered over
the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and central and southern
A strong mid- and upper-level trough exiting the Plains early in the
period is expected to advance steadily east across the
Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and central Gulf Coast states,
reaching a position from the lower Great Lakes to the southern
Appalachians/Southeast late in the period.
At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to shift east-northeast
across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then across the central
Appalachians to the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
Widespread thunderstorms -- and a broad severe risk -- will
accompany this system.
...The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians south to the
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in a
north-south band from Indiana to Alabama early in the period, ahead
of the advancing cold front. As modest heating of a moistening
pre-frontal warm sector commences, 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
is expected to evolve ahead of the ongoing band of convection, from
the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. This should result in a gradual
intensification of storms through the afternoon, aided by a very
strong deep-layer wind field accompanying this storm system --
including 80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels.
Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with
embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts. Damaging winds will
likely be the primary threat, though tornadoes will also be possible
across much of the area -- particularly near and west of the
mountains. Risk should diminish gradually through the evening,
though local wind risk may persist through the end of the period.