NorthHillsWx

I really really really have tried to see how this system should’ve been named but I cannot. Nearest convection is hundreds of miles from coc and clearly is and has never been purely tropical.

0.08” this afternoon from a couple n to s moving showers

For anyone who wants to see what high-end hurricane damage looks like. Reminiscent of Mexico Beach after Michael.

The longer 95L takes to develop, the further south it will track as a weak wave will remain embedded in the tropic easterlies rather than a stacked system with a tendency to gain latitude. This may have impacts down the road in keeping that system from being a “fish” storm. Some of the more northern solutions the last couple days had the system as a developing tropical storm at this point, not a weak wave. If it holds off on development until the area of the Antilles, it will likely hold much further south and west than previous modeling. Guidance has shifted south and westward significantly this cycle given the waves present lack of organization

Neither 95L nor 96L look anywhere close to becoming more organized this morning.

Strong wind shear really prevented this from being a worse flooding situation. Shear was so strong it kept most of the heaviest rainfall over the gulf and has displaced the rain shield well away from the coc, causing less intense bands. Storm slightly over produced in the wind department, several gusts over 90 mph and many hurricane force wind gusts showing up (along with incredibly impressive videos from the landfall area), but really seemed to be significantly over modeled in the rainfall department. Have seen some totals over 14” but they seem to be extremely isolated

Just a normal day at the beach

Very possible this gets upgraded to a hurricane at 11. Current flight has several unflagged SFMR readings of near hurricane force and FL winds near 75 knots

Up to 70 mph pressure down to 988

Make it stop!

What I *think* is going on here is there are two week sub vortices rotating around a larger vorticity maximum between them. I think the coc can likely be determined by the midpoint between these small circulation centers. Likely, this will consolidate into a larger single circulation as the smaller vortices will have a difficult time sustaining themselves within the larger circulation

Good luck with the forecast on this one. This is something we usually don’t see on radar and is usually reserved for formative storms. There are 3 possible centers atm and I have no clue which one will take over. Assuming one does, I believe this storm will make a run at a hurricane before landfall given the eastward shifts, but good luck predicting that given current look

Convection that had temporarily tried to become a formative core looks like it was sheared away from lllc, which may actually be reforming to the East. There’s clearly a strong MLC well to the northeast of the LLC, and this is becoming even more apparent on radar. May have to watch here for another center reformation. Pretty awesome process to watch on radar as the convection quite literally seems to be trying to drag the llc with it

Looks impressive on radar imagery. However, seems to have taken a NW jog. Time over water may be extremely limited now

On radar, a little core looks like it could be coming together. Also, underneath deep convection. Do not give up on this one in the wind department. That’s a tight circulation and shear vector is not as detrimental as it could be and may also add to some ventilation as seen from the growing moisture stream north of the system.