NorthHillsWx

I mean, that’s almost identical. Thanks!

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day.

I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point

Keep in mind ICON doesn’t show sleet or freezing rain on this depiction but it’s pretty similar to the Euro… Has triangle staying pure snow tho!

Not at all. We’ll take the check, please!

Nope, you had your storm. Share some with your brethren further east

A la last January

I love how in Raleigh we literally do better 99 times out of 100 with weaker, slider type systems than blockbuster lows like last weekend. Excited for this one, perfect setup for us and the freezing line is nowhere near wake county

Don’t think anyone thought they were bad for central NC

Agreed. We’re in a great spot given all the recent runs except the super suppressed Canadian solution from 12z

TBH- for once in recent memory I feel like the the Triangle is in a good spot

Oh that’s a pretty sight

***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen

Anyway you slice the models today: 1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out 3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east 4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today

Long range NAM but that’s a big time storm growing at the end of the run. Also- the duration of this even looks amazing