NorthHillsWx

Humberto is beginning to get "the look" of a major. Eye clearing out nicely. LARGE eye at that. NWS does a good job explaining how significant pressure falls does not always indicate the jump in windspeed you'd expect as the system is so spread out (evidenced by that giant eye). Still, this is a pretty looking Atlantic storm this afternoon. Hopefully the worst passes North and West of Bermuda but they are definitely in line for some low-end Hurricane conditions if trends continue.

Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something!

It was bound to happen if it shows the same thing every time, at least once it'll be right! Like people calling the NAM king after Michael last year lol

There is a non-zero threat of some tornadic spinups coming in the Cameron-Port Arthur Area with some of those feeder bands beginning to move onshore, especially in peak heating conditions.

Storm looks better on radar than Barry did at ANY point

This is one that people on the TX coast should be glad that it formed so close to land... These super small circulations in a moist atmosphere and with a relative lack of shear can really spin up quick. This thing went from an open trough to a TS in essentially 18 hours and is strengthening through LF. Big time rains coming onshore. Very interesting to watch. Seems, from land measurements, this thing may actually be stronger than 40 mph too. I wonder if frictional effects of land helped tighten the circulation?

Just like that, NHC has designated a TD. Expected to become a storm shortly. Pretty interesting to watch the rapid organization over the last 12 hours. Big rain-maker for Texas

Ready for the ccoldown! A warmer than expected 91 imby! Per ususal

Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry

Rode the storm out in Morehead City. Gusts peaked between 4:30-6:00 this morning. Guessing gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Lots of branches and leaves down. Lots of transformers exploding and arcing. Got that jet noise you only get over hurricane force. Genuinely doubted we’d see hurricane force winds as the lead up was so tame but we definitely had a period when sustained had to have reached that level. No clue on rain but I’d guess it’s have to be around 5 in. North eyewall was surprisingly weak. Western side brought the goods, well what was left of them anyway. Most areas do not have power. Damage very minimal and no water rise. Very thankful this thing lost the fury it had down south. We didn’t need another big hit. Oh yea, my neighborhood kept power!

We don't have AC so power isn't really an issue. Got several YETI's I can fill with ice. I'm pretty much directly across from the bridge to Manteo so getting off the island shouldn't be an issue. Wasn't planning to leave until Sunday anyway. Even with Isabel this spot was not hit hardm outside the main beach road. We own the lot behind us and can park cars there assuming any overwash makes it under this house, which would require a 6-8 foot surge and I don't see that from a storm coming from the SW instead of the east. I think southern beaches and Hatteras have much more impact.

A common subject on the main thread has been model performance but I do not think they have performed as poorly as some on the rhetoric emanating from there. Storms rounding a ridge are notoriously difficult to predict where the northward turn begins. The new GFS, in particular, was one of the first to identify a slowdown and turn before the mainland. I commented on the thread Friday that this was noticeable, despite most of the operational means still showing a track well into Florida. Once most of the models on Friday showed a stall and a turn North, details are everything but well within what I would consider the 3-day margin for error. it just mattered more because of the implications of where the turn happened. If this was in the middle of the Atlantic, no one would notice. But being the difference in 80-100 miles meant a monster storm sitting over Florida or sitting in the Bahamas this was extremely seen as poor model performance. I disagree. From Thursday night through now (Tuesday) I do not think they missed by much at all. However the margin of error was so thin and consequences at the coast so dire that it amplifies any model errors. Just my .02!

I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory. Key Questions Though: 1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening) 2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue 3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow. Thoughts?