GaWx

But there’s no good reason imho to not be that way online as long as most others are that way in their interactions. People look at this in different ways. Some say that the real person may show up better online because of less inhibition to be oneself. OTOH, there are many trolls online.

Hey Barry, He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral? Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

Hey Barry, 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear. Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

AAM: still has Ninoish peak next week Prior run (6 days ago):

Back to 1894-5, I have DJ of 1917-8 and 1976-7 as the coldest DJ in the E 1/2 of the US:

The E ATL avg anom has warmed as of 7/17 significantly: But OHC there as of 7/15 is still near the avg though climo warmer:

But 1916-7 was one of the most -PDO DJFs on record and 1917-8 averaged neutral.

From WB’s Joe D’Aleo today: That warm water east of Japan will move east in the North Pacific current north of the North Pacific Gyre. How much warmth will be carried east before the winter is something we will need to monitor. If it ends up staying more in mid-ocean, a very different winter story would evolve. This is just a heads up. When warm water in the Pacific has settled in the northeast Pacific, winters are brutal. Examples include 1976/77, 1977/78, 1993/94 and 1916/17, 1917/18 and 2013/14, 2014/15/ Those back to back cold winters turned the trend negative for 1996 to 2015. The winter snows also set records.

Today posted by Joe D’Aleo: Dr Viterito reported a new geothermal "hot spot" has emerged over the past 2 weeks, and it appears to be heating up the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific. Specifically, the Wilber 3 System has catalogued 76 seismic events since 6/21 off of the southern coast of Japan. The area impacted is a hydrothermal vent field to the west of the Ryukyu Islands, in an oceanic region known as the Okinawa Trough. See how the surface water has warmed in recent months: I was wondering if the recent very steep PDO drop started on 6/21/25. However, that actually started 6/8/25 rather than 6/21/25. By 6/21/25, the WCS daily PDO had already plunged to -2 from -1 as of 6/7/25:

At my location, the last 10 days have had an enormous contrast between the first 5 days and the last 5: 7/9-13: 6.35” total/rain every day with lots of street flooding and some flooding on my property/lots of standing water 7/14-18: only light amounts a couple of days totaling ~0.10”

Interesting dichotomy between the warm neutral subsurface and the cold neutral surface:

Agreed. But if it turns back down by the end of this month, the record NOAA PDO low of October 2024’s -3.80 would be in danger. For MTD, it’s likely in that vicinity now. That table goes way back to 1854.

Indeed, it’s not surprisingly bounced 0.50 from the extreme low of -3.45 of 7/8/25. This -2.95 WCS PDO translates to ~-3.75 NOAA PDO. NOAA’s dip on 7/8/25 was likely sub -4!

For the first time in weeks, the latest Euro Weeklies actually has a week forecasted to be slightly above the 2005-2024 average in the ATL basin. It’s for Aug 11-17. It has that week at 110% of 2005-24 avg: Just two runs ago it had that week at only 60% of 2005-24 avg: The highlighted areas have the highest chance (5%+) for a TC to be within 300 km:

Maybe this will help some: https://stormtrack.org/threads/highest-500-mb-height-in-history.8224/#:~:text=The source for 1994 onward,22 had no 600 line.