GaWx

This was likely helped by recent dry weather. This peak being in mid November compares to the average peak being in late October a few decades ago. Here, some trees are just starting to turn a little. With the current chill though, the changes should accelerate and thus may allow for a peak around Thanksgiving, which is near the average of the last 30 years. If so, that would be earlier than some recent years that didn’t peak til well into December. Going back more than 30 years, this area used to peak around now on average. Today was a near perfect day to be outside as I was.

I’d say there’s a decent shot at another big (for SAV) winter storm here sometime within the next 15-20 years or so based on history. Will it have to wait 15-20+years? Will it come much sooner? You never know! Looking back in history at historic/major for SAV..say ~2”+ of snow/IP and/or significant ZR (so not near all wintry events…just the biggest ones), I know of these since 1800: 2018, 1989, 1973, 1968, 1922 (ZR), 1914 (ZR/IP), 1899 (blizzard with 2”), 1895, 1851-2 (two 2” snows that winter!), 1837 (2nd biggest), ~1810-15 (I think), 1800 (the biggest one by far). Plus there were a few in the mid to late 1700s. (SAV founded 1733 for those who don’t know). So, again about once every 15-20 years on average.

Final storm recap: My county had a storm total range of 3-5". My location ended up with ~4", which included short periods of moderate to heavy rains returning late last night on the backside after several hours of light or no rain. The last of the rain didn't end til 9 AM this morning. It started around noon on Friday. So, the elapsed time from the start of the storm's rain til the very end was ~45 hours! It wasn't a totally continuous 45 hours of rain but a good 40 or so of the 45 hours had rain. A storm with that much elapsed time of nearly continuous rain is pretty rare. I was looking back at records and there was a similar November storm with heavy rains and chilly temperatures due to a similarly far SE tracking low November 15-16 of 2019. @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81(fellow SAV posters), any totals or thoughts regarding this storm?

Here it has rained nonstop for over 30 hours with temps in the 40s and gusty NE to N winds. The heaviest just happened between 5 and 6 PM today, which produced street flooding. Storm totals will end up exceeding 3” at the very least in much of the region. Like 24 hours ago, mid to late afternoon temperatures were near the coldest in the lower 48 with only a very few exceptions being barely colder, this time mainly in the NW US. Lake City in FL at 45 at 5 PM was just about the coldest at 5PM at a nonmountainous lower 48 major station! KSAV was then 46 and has since dropped back to 45. KSAV coldest with the rain was 43 this morning, which is their coldest so far this season. This is the type of track that once every few decades on average will give this area a very rare major winter storm. The last one was in January of 2018 and the prior one was in 1989. This one would have been a ZR/IP type of setup if it were midwinter and cold enough due to the wedge of cold air that is colder than that at 5K feet/850 mb. In summary, this has been and still is quite the memorable storm here due to the rare combination of longevity and various impacts producing quite the anomalous situation. To add, the very slow moving low center to our SE has been strengthening and is likely near 1,000 mb. The very slow movement is what has allowed the steady rain to last so long.

Yeah, I predicted within a range of -1.0 to -1.4. I'm sticking with that. Keep in mind that that is for the ONI trimonthly fall/winter peak. The weeklies, themselves, would peak higher than the trimonthly, of course.

Nino 3.4 dropped to -1.1 C fwiw.

Indeed, 12Z EPS/18Z GEFS/0Z GEFS about as busy as anytime recently late in their runs in the W Caribbean. Early Nov climo supports this to some extent with still a respectable 13 geneses over the 10 day period 11/1-10 vs about the same rate during the 11 day period 10/21-31 of 15..so this area may bear watching, folks, as that's one every 13 years on average with the last one being Ida of 2009:

Thank you. Yes, it is working. It has -1.4 for AS.

I haven’t tried it. Please provide a link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for - Nino 3.4, is at -0.8 vs -0.6 a week before - It appears that they've just restated past weeks to reflect on the new dataset. Remember my post about that last week's showing a 0.7 cooling from 0.0 to -0.7? Now last week shows only a 0.1 cooling from -0.5 to -0.6

It doesn't get much more awesome than today with temps in the low 70s and dewpoints in the low 40s here...near ideal weather for outdoors!

It is a shame (for those who prefer cold E US winters) that there is virtually no correlation of Oct NAO to winter NAO during La Niña because there's a chance for it to be the most -NAO October on record for a non-El Nino (back to 1950), which is currently 2012’s -2.06. For whatever reason, the monthly NAO is often close to double what the dailies average out to. At a minimum, it seems to be at least 1.67 times the daily average. Based on that, this month has a good chance of ending up sub -1.8 and could easily end up sub -2.0 (see GEFS based forecast below). Here is the link to the monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table The following Octs were sub -1.7: 1960, 1968, 1980, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2012 The subsequent DJF NAO along with ENSO: 1960: +0.3/not El Niño 1968: -1.4/El Niño 1980: +0.7/not El Niño 1992: +0.9/not El Niño 1997: -0.2/El Niño 2002: -0.2/El Niño 2006: +0.4/El Niño 2012: 0.0/not El Niño Only one of the 8 subsequent winters had a strong -NAO (1968) and it was El Niño. Two others were slightly -NAO and they were also El Niño. The 4 non-El Niño winters were in the 0.0 to +0.9 range and averaged +0.5. Looking at all 8 winters, they averaged +0.1. Conclusion: Despite the forecast for Oct of 2021 to have one of, if not THE, most -NAO on record for any Oct, it by no means is predictive of a -NAO this winter. Of course, that doesn’t mean it can’t end up that way. I’m just saying that history says that this month being so strongly -NAO doesn’t mean an increased chance for -NAO this winter vs climo based chances. Furthermore, this winter being La Niña, if anything, reduces the chances based on ENSO climo. Here’s the impressive GEFS NAO forecast:

Today's SOI was +28 (though that should be a peak for awhile as it will now drop) , the 30 day is +11, and the 90 is at +9. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The 0Z GEFS maintains the moderate signal for W Caribbean genesis mid to late next week that then moves NE toward far south FL or FL Straits.

The period in and around 10/17-21 has been quite active in terms of frequency on and near south Florida/Bahamas based on past seasons. It is essentially the final peak period for that area for the season. Will there be another for around that period? The 12Z GEFS was also pretty active. Perhaps this one isn’t a fake like the one earlier. Let’s see if future GEFS runs persist with this activity.