GaWx
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As I posted in the storm thread, we had some snow pellets 12:50AM-1AM. Temp 35.4F with calm winds. Temp was earlier 33F. 850s are -1C. This is the first wintry precip here in 7 years!
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We just got some snow pellets over the last 5 minutes since ~12:50AM! This came from the streak of wintry that gave you sleet earlier. First frozen precip here in 7 years. Here they were shaped like sleet but were softer and white. They made sleet like noises when landing. Temp 35.4F. Our modeled 850s are a bit colder, near -1C. Interesting that that light precip made it to the ground. Our dewpoint isn’t overly low, low to mid 20s. I’m easily excited!
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0Z Euro sleet 0Z ZR:
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Indeed, here’s 0Z Euro qpf: Here’s Kuchera:
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0Z Euro NW shift vs 18Z
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The sleet is consistent with the modeled 850s of +1 as of now at AYS.
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0Z GFS is a big hit of a mix in SE GA/S SC: Kuchera snow IP: ZR:
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0Z GFS qpf: fairly similar to 18Z
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0Z GFS early maps look pretty similar to 18Z fwiw.
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Houston started having sleet at 8PM EST/7PM CST. I wonder how that compares to the timing of the qpf start on various models.
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0Z ICON: slight SE shift vs 18Z 0Z 18Z was a little to the NW of 0Z
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It’s important that current dewpoints be compared to modeled dewpoints: Example: KATL actual 9PM DP is 0F What do models show for 9PM there? 0Z 3K NAM: way up at +14F! It’s 14F too high! 0Z NAM 12K: +10F (10F too high) 18Z Euro: +3F (only 3F too high…so very close) 18Z GFS is -10F (10F too low) So, 18Z Euro is by far the closest for KATL. You guys might want to check your locations as dewpoint will be very important in determining how long it will be virga. For here, Euro is spot on making it easily closest to reality like at KATL.
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0Z NAM going north means more sleet and ZR down here on it: now may go ahead and charge my backup power packs in case ZR ends up dominating and is heavy sleet: would undoubtedly be alltime record IP by far in SE GA: some of this is off the top end of the chart! @dsaur
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Compare that to 0Z NAM radar as of 9PM: And 10PM radar as if 10PM: p
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0Z NAM a good bit further N!
