GaWx

-2025’s 1.46 is 52nd of the last 75 seasons ACEwise as of July 12th -The last season with 7/12 ACE lower was 2009’s 0 -But 2004, 1998, 1985, 1969, and 1955 also had 0 in addition to 11 others -The predictive value of 7/12 ACE for the remainder of season’s ACE is virtually 0 -Here’s the 7/12 ACE position out of 74 for seasons with 150+ ACE remainder of season: 2nd, 6th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 24th, 31st, 34th, 59th-61st, 66th -So, avg 7/12 position of seasons with 150+ ACE to follow: 33rd of 74

We’re getting blasted with a thunderstorm now! 2nd day in a row.

He doesn’t post here. Of course I have no idea if he reads it.

RONI could dip as low as moderate La Niña but I currently am forecasting ~-0.4 cold neutral ONI low point and -0.6 to -0.9 RONI low point (weak La Niña).

I have EPO and PNA back only to 1950: -1962-3, 1967-8, Jan of 1985, and 2013-14 were all -EPO dominated -All of the above were +PNA dominated except just Jan of the 2013-4 winter

Snowman, Further to my post above, three of the greatest (and arguably the two greatest are in this) E US Arctic outbreaks on record occurred during 2nd year -ENSO: -Feb of 1899 -Jan of 1985 -Jan of 2014 Mere coincidence especially with sample size tiny? @snowman19

There are usually exceptions to any rule. These 2nd year -ENSO winters or portions of winters were cold in much of the E US: -1898-9 (including great 2/1899 frigid period)(March was also cold with its own outbreak early) -1909-10 (Dec/Feb) -1962-3 (frigid) -1967-8 (Jan-Feb) -Jan of 1985 (though Dec of 1984 warm) -2013-4 especially Midwest

In the longer term, it’s still looking pretty quiet on the Euro Weeklies in the ATL basin through August 10th with much more activity in the WPAC and EPAC vs ATL. The GEFS runs still show a small chance for something in the NE Gulf next week.

Thanks, Chuck. I see that the Euro op has 6000+ at peak. The 0Z GFS also barely has it. But I think most or all of the others are just shy of 6K. Is they what you see?

+1.95 trimonthly peak for ONI (border between strong and super) +1.50 trimonthly RONI peak (border between moderate and strong)

Very strong thunderstorms in a band moving SE into this area now. Edit 6:37PM: these were severe warned. Huge mess all over during rush hour as I had to drive in it. CTG is quite frequent. Many roads flooded. Edit: I ended up with ~1.25” although some in the county had 3”+. Lots of bad street flooding occurred, especially in the city.

Implies SE ridge dominance?

I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”.

This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts.