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About andyhb

  • Rank
    240+ kts G2G
  • Birthday March 18

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Vancouver, B.C.
  • Interests
    Severe Wx, Music, Sports

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  1. Spring 2018 Discussion

    I really, really hope what's happening at the end there doesn't become a base state for spring.
  2. Spring 2018 Discussion

    I am really not a fan of that temperature or precip outlook aside from the cold in the NW. That's really the only redeeming factor.
  3. Spring 2018 Discussion

    Need to get rid of that recurrent Pacific pattern with the anticyclonic wavebreaking over the E Pacific/West Coast being driven by the troughing over eastern Asia and subsequent jet extensions. Otherwise we'll wind up with another dud of a severe season.
  4. 12z Euro was showing a fairly significant severe weather setup (first of the year if it comes into fruition) over the Red River Valley eastward into the Arklatex on Tuesday.
  5. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    (excuse my lack of analysis in here recently, busy on my final leg to getting my own red tag on here come spring)
  6. Multiple reports of damage trickling out of that area now.
  7. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    I want to like this post for the excellent analysis, but I just can't bring myself to do it. If we could just get this cold dump to occur further west, that would be great...
  8. I wasn't necessarily judging it just from the perspective of chasing though.
  9. Well that's quite the tone to come back to this site with. 10/15 of the EF3+ tornadoes occurred before April last year. EF3+ tornadoes occur when the setups are most favorable for classic supercells most of the time, regardless of biases in terms of buildings to hit/etc. Was 2011 a great chase season? No, but that was mainly because the setups were in unfavorable locations. 2017 had a number of Plains "potential events" that underperformed or just were generally not that great in terms of photo/video opportunities. Removing the subjectivity of ratings, 6/12 was basically the only above average chase day during the AMJ period last year.
  10. Based on observations, I tend to think that VBV is more a symptom of an unfavorable synoptic/mesoscale setup that already tends to discourage discrete supercells as opposed to being the cause of a bust. These setups tend to favour updrafts not propagating away from boundaries and for large amounts of updraft seeding to occur. 4/26/2016 is a classic example.
  11. Well it's about that time of year again with just over two months until meteorological spring begins. Closest to first high risk date last year -> Stebo: March 13th (actual: January 22nd) Closest to number of tornadoes last year -> lookingnorth and hurricaneman: 1300-1400 (actual: 1359 as per December 27th) As mentioned in the previous thread, last year was one with a generous amount of tornadoes overall, yet very few intense (EF3+) tornadoes, yielding a very strong contrast between overall numbers and "quality" of events. There were four high risks that generally underperformed due to various factors, one being the hangover sub-tropical influence from the 2015-16 super Nino, despite the presence of weak La Nina SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. Looking forward to the coming year, it appears we'll have lingering La Nina influence in place once again, but this time with a less prominent sub-tropical jet. The analogs presented below in Anthony Masiello's tweet represent years with a good QBO/ENSO match to the current winter. As one can see, the current December regime is a close match to the December 250 mb geopotential height anomalies, although a sample size of just three winters is not ideal. Other years that have been mentioned in analogs from various winter forecasts include 1954-55, 1995-96, 2005-06, 2007-08 and 2013-14 (I've seen some other bigger years thrown around, although they don't appear to be as good matches to the SSTA patterns, QBO structure, etc). We've also seen a dominant East Siberia/Sea of Okhotsk standing wave vortex as of late, whose downstream effects have generally encouraged a persistent -EPO via wavebreaking (something that hopefully eases a bit later in the season). The southeast ridge has also been fairly suppressed. The PDO has also fallen into a more neutral state lately, as opposed to the positive conditions of the past few years, which is at least somewhat promising. We also currently have a -TNI in place with cooler SSTAs in Nino 1+2 vs. Nino 4, and a positive state has shown some correlation to increased chances for larger outbreaks. The PDO and weakened sub tropical jet appear to be two factors favouring an uptick in activity vs. the mean of the past 5 or so years. It remains to be seen how much La Nina will influence the upcoming late winter and spring (MEI has been relatively weak), although I'd tend to lean towards at least cold neutral forcing come peak season. Number of tornadoes: 1225 First High Risk: March 16th