andyhb

Large tornado in progress just east of KVWX heading for Fort Branch IN.

72 dBZ debris ball south of Indy, that is a mean tornado.

That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.

Main uncertainty being the placement of the warm front and antecedent convection.

Have to imagine a D2 MDT is coming given the magnitude of the setup being shown by the 00z guidance thus far, with some supercells on the CAMs interacting with it. Just incredible wind fields.

Generally when you blend a record strength 500 mb shortwave with a record strength surface low, you're going to expect some pretty anomalous outcomes assuming moisture is available, which it looks to be.

The 12z Euro… holy moly.

As of right now, this looks like an outbreak over potentially a large expanse of real estate, with both strong tornadoes and a derecho possible. I’m amazed at how strong the LLJ is across many models right now.

Agreed, it looks like another potentially widespread and significant severe weather episode with very strong flow overlapping high moisture. Tuesday could have some potential too.

This is hands down one of the best tornado videos I have ever seen. Hopefully a long format one is to follow.

Washburn IL, Streator IL, and Kouts IN tornadoes all preliminarily rated EF3.

Huge wedge tornado reported NE of Kouts per Isaac Polanski.

Tornado down heading for Schaumburg @SchaumburgStormer!

That is a major tornado in the middle of the Lake County burbs, that is not going to be good.

Giant tornado near Streator IL per Colin Davis. Environment near those two supercells in central IL is extreme, STP of 10, SCP of 40, 3000+ MLCAPE and 500+ ESRH.