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About andyhb

  • Rank
    240+ kts G2G
  • Birthday March 18

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Norman, OK
  • Interests
    Severe Wx, Music, Sports

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  1. Hmm, that has to be one of the more direct in situ measurements ever gathered of a tornado.
  2. Looking like we're on track for the first year without an F/EF4+ rated tornado since at least 1880, extending the database back through Grazulis' archives. Speaking of that, I am getting my hands on both volumes of the new Significant Tornadoes out next year come hell or high water.
  3. andyhb

    December 1 Severe Weather

    Gotta wonder what this exact setup would've done with spring time thermodynamics at the surface. Not even necessarily "prime" spring time thermodynamics, I'm talking like 67-71 T/60-64 Td here. 00z ILX sounding had a classic sickle shaped hodograph with over 400 m2/s2 ESRH, with most of that concentrated in the 0-1 km layer, not to mention 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. Pretty solid mid level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km as well thanks to 500 mb temps below -20˚C, that was the key here. Should note that none of the global models had surface winds even close to that strongly backed over the area.
  4. andyhb

    December 1 Severe Weather

    Overheads of the damage in Taylorville.
  5. Will likely be driving southbound on 35 tomorrow towards Austin, wonder if I might take a detour or two along the way... I have strong doubts that initiation will hold off until 00z given the synoptic setup. That is a pretty potent, negatively tilted wave ejecting right overtop of the warm sector, which should provide plenty of forcing for ascent and the cap is not overly strong. Have seen some funky looking wind fields in a few forecast soundings, but most of them don't seem to be too crippling in terms of storm mode problems. Speaking of storm mode given the degree of forcing, have to wonder if it is a relatively quick transition to linear, some more low level backing would certainly help.
  6. andyhb

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    DDC gusted to 62 mph at the 15z obs.
  7. andyhb

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    That one has some similarities as well, although I think that shortwave was a bit flatter. Something splitting down the middle with maybe a bit more weight on 2015.
  8. andyhb

    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    Haven't been paying attention to this as much due to other priorities, but I'll be damned if this setup on a synoptic scale doesn't remind me of GHD 2015. Quite a similar 500 mb evolution. And yeah the 12z Euro is a crush job for Chicago and vicinity.
  9. If the Euro is on the right track (and it has been fairly steady), we could be dealing with a very significant severe weather event Monday evening continuing into Tuesday afternoon from E Texas and SE Oklahoma extending into AL and GA. Sampling one of the parameter spaces at 06z in along the I-55 corridor in MS reveals SBCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, deep layer shear of 60-70 kts and low level shear in places in excess of 50 kts (this type of environment is generally in place through the whole period in one place or another). This would be an environment capable of long lived supercells with significant tornadoes. Moreover, this trough is quite low amplitude (compared to its wavelength) and would likely portend a long period of discrete/semi-discrete storm mode. Extent of the threat will be dependent on moisture return of course, but it is important to note that notable destabilization in this case will occur nearly independent of the diurnal cycle given the strong advective processes (WAA, moist advection) vs. diabatic insolation.
  10. andyhb

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    That trough early next week showing up across guidance, including quite a strong signal on the ensembles, has my attention for a potential severe wx threat (and a widespread one at that) assuming enough moisture return is available. There already is an established low amplitude trough across the central US and a powerful jet max slides SE into it and somewhat amplifies/kicks the trough negative tilt. The 12z Euro was getting 60s dewpoints all the way into Michigan. There are, as it sits right now, some similarities synoptically to the 10/18/07 severe wx event.
  11. The more problematic event might be early next week with a very favorable 500 mb pattern for a larger scale severe episode across the S US showing up on the ensembles. Going to hinge on how much moisture return can take place since there could be a FROPA or two through the Gulf prior to then, but that definitely looks to be something to watch especially since it may fall on Election Day.
  12. andyhb

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I could say a lot of other words towards your attitude in here, but I'll refrain. Your original post was that "it was not cat x inland" and you're basing category on unrealistic (based on a literal horde of previous cases) expectations/criteria.
  13. andyhb

    Major Hurricane Michael

    That model is also fitted for observations, which means failure of the instruments can compromise its max wind/gust estimates. Regardless of that, once again, it is common in observations that peak gusts over land match peak sustained over the water (130 is borderline between Cat 3 and 4, 110-120 is Cat 3), which in this case validates exactly what you are scoffing at.
  14. andyhb

    Michael Banter Thread

    Don't let the fact that Kansas beat Texas in football distract you from the fact that Michael was a Cat 2 at landfall.