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About andyhb

  • Rank
    240+ kts G2G
  • Birthday March 18

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Norman, OK
  • Interests
    Severe Wx, Music, Sports

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  1. Cleveland Superbomb part II in April.
  2. We were very close to at least partially realizing those crazy HRRR runs from Friday afternoon/evening.
  3. It’s got that violent helical motion going on seen with some other big ones in the past.
  4. Too much shear for the updrafts currently. Dewpoints not where they need to be.
  5. Instability worse than forecast, shear better than forecast. Question is which one wins.
  6. Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that.
  7. Obs > CAMs especially on a day like this.
  8. I mean model soundings up there are yielding moderate buoyancy even with 67/63 type T/Td pairs, which I think is achievable with the dry slot. Cold air aloft helping a lot.
  9. Liking the IA triple point right now given the dry slot pushing in. Should see large hodographs juxtaposed with sufficient low level buoyancy for tornado potential there. The junk further south and lack of warm frontal progression really has me questioning the current moderate risk area.
  10. All of that convection in AR and MO is probably going to have some say in whether better moisture can make it far enough north in time. Mesoscale trends aren’t exactly looking favorable for a bigger event at this time.
  11. Big TBSS on that Jefferson City storm. Looks to be on track to impact some of the STL metro (after they already got hailed on last night).
  12. I mean, you could always try and go work for them then.
  13. 12z Euro was a bit of a downtick from earlier. Weaker wind fields/less instability.
  14. Pretty ridiculous fixed layer STP ensemble mean from the 12z HREF.
  15. Synoptics here scream regional severe wx outbreak. One of the more synoptically evident events we’ve seen in recent years. Now it’s down to the mesoscale to decide on ceiling. Not every day you see a trough with a 110+ kt 500 mb max impinging on a warm sector with mid-upper 60s dewpoints regardless of season. Wind fields seem to be gradually shifting towards more of the “these cells could be strongly tornadic” idea, but I’d also like to see what we wake up with tomorrow. I have little doubt the NAM 3 km is at least somewhat off in terms of eastward extent of the warm sector though.