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About andyhb

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Vancouver, B.C.
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    Severe Wx, Music, Sports

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  1. 00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.
  2. One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.
  3. Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new. There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.
  4. With a pitiful pattern it looks like heading towards May I might add. Upper flow over the CONUS dies with the unfavorable +dAAM/dt tendency. A lot of bad in the CPC analogs too with 2006 and 1987 showing up at/near the top (easily two of the worst Mays for chasing).
  5. On the other hand, the CMC and UK have basically nothing because they aren't nearly as amplified with Friday's trough. Thing more or less just slides through the large scale flow as opposed to really digging.
  6. GFS was definitely more promising than the 00z run though.
  7. I'm pretty impressed with the overall synoptics with this system (especially the strong LLJ throughout the afternoon), looks like a fairly prototypical earlier season High Plains event. Also a strong LLJ like that will help counteract any negative effects the ongoing drought might have on moisture return. Need that lead system to both help recover the Gulf sufficiently after the FROPA this weekend but also stay a bit less amplified so as to not suppress the cyclogenesis/warm sector behind it.
  8. Tornado near Dierks, AR was a beast.
  9. Reminds me a lot of what they did for the Vilonia storm back in 2014.
  10. Debris signature N of Clarksville, AR.
  11. Supercell W of Mountain View, AR (think 2/5/08 territory) has a troubling look on reflectivity. Also very strong inflow.
  12. Large tornado near Mountainburg, AR from a bit earlier.
  13. The current look over AR is rather concerning given the lack of overall convection and especially the lack of a linear mode. Low level wind fields are becoming extremely favorable for tornadoes at this point and that's only going to continue through 00z. That area near LZK has me concerned, once storms start emerging from the Ouachitas/Ozarks.
  14. I didn't call anyone else out for that until you dropped that earlier...