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About andyhb

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    240+ kts G2G
  • Birthday March 18

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    Vancouver, B.C.
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    Severe Wx, Music, Sports

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  1. I think he's tweeting about it because it is fairly weak.
  2. There is a lag, but any substantial changes that occur in Dec or Jan are liable to alter forcing for at least a short period of time during the winter. Another reason we are seeing trades continue this time as opposed to being interrupted is the relatively inactive MJO compared to earlier in the month.
  3. I personally think it's unwise to declare "the Nina will stay weak, period" before the typical December/January peaks in magnitude. Last year, that may have been a more sound notion. Also I get the feeling that some of the people counting on an east-based La Nina through winter may have been a bit premature. This east-west propagation that we might be seeing the initial phases of now is fairly common in Nina events.
  4. I'm not sure I'd call it PDO related since that actual index is basically neutral right now. This is more low latitude/sub-tropical in origin, i.e. off Mexico and the Baja. Ridging there can be a plus for severe season if it isn't too dominant since it enhances the meridional gradient coming through the west -> stronger jet with troughs amplifying out of the NW/Gulf of Alaska. Obviously don't want it to get too prominent though.
  5. While this year is going to end up as the most active overall numbers wise since 2011 with over 1300 confirmed tornadoes by November, it is also is nearly unheard of in its dearth of tornadoes rated F/EF3 or higher. There have only been 15 EF3+ tornadoes this year (13 EF3, 2 EF4), which, should it hold through December, is the least since 1987 (widely considered one of the least active seasons on record). As far as I can tell, this year has been unprecedented in its "quantity vs. quality" aspect. This can obviously be seen in its lack of more quality chase days in April through June. The only day I can say that was surely above average tornado wise (in terms of picturesque opportunities) for most who chased it was 6/12 in WY/NE. This is with the period at the end of April that looked impressive until 3-4 days out when it started to completely unravel (save the Canton-Eustace tornadoes that were generally a mesoscale event) notwithstanding. Many of the strongest tornadoes of the year occurred in the cold season (2/3 to be precise), which is bad in both aspects as it led to a considerable amount of fatalities (eg. 20 deaths in the Jan 20-22 event) and little in the way of better chaser opportunities come peak/late season. Add on four high risks that generally underperformed and...yeah.
  6. Idk, maybe I'm just tired of his arrogance. This kept happening in the tropical threads as well. Believe me, I'm no defender of Chuck.
  7. Most recent CPC weekly SSTA in Nino 3.4 was -1.1˚C, so over a short timespan this already invalidates this claim, but sure.
  8. I am, presenting a poster on high resolution simulations of Cape Verde convection.
  9. Watch this whole schtick carry over to next spring.
  10. Euro gets it down to 968 mb at noon Saturday, when in November...
  11. Naturally the Euro has it coming through on November 17th... Did have enough CAPE in IL to cause some issues (60˚F Tds to PIA) given the degree of shear as well, although I'd like to see some colder temps aloft and sfc temps are also on the cool side, only 60-65˚F. Heh, merge this system with the amount of instability/moisture there was last week and you have yourself a whopper of course.
  12. Likely sig damaging winds on the S side of the metro now with that MCV/outflow surge.
  13. Need a tornado warning on the circulation about to come onshore in the east side of the Cleveland metro.
  14. On the Ohio side. Also major damage in Jay County, IN.
  15. Storm moving down US 50 in S IL looking pretty good, although inflow is still a bit lacking on BV. Also another vid of the E IN tornado.