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andyhb

Meteorologist
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About andyhb

  • Birthday March 18

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOUN
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Norman, OK
  • Interests
    Severe Wx, Music, Sports

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  1. Now high end EF3. Have some suspicion that there are a few points that may be consideration for EF4. The Taco Bell and the church that were both completely destroyed in particular.
  2. I'm not sure on the number of confirmed dead. The last more official statement I saw was 3 dead with the likelihood to rise. Also I believe the Lakeview tornado has been upgraded to EF3 from the earlier EF2 PNS in Orchard Island.
  3. The fatalities in Winchester were redacted later. I think someone got "casualties" lost in translation or something of the sort.
  4. https://www.whio.com/news/local/injuries-storm-related-damage-reported-mercer-county/ZE7JIPWZNNAFVKOUSCV3VTT5N4/ Fatalities confirmed in Logan Co. OH from the Wapakoneta/Lakeview tornado.
  5. 00z ILN sounding is very favorable for strong tornadoes.
  6. Winchester IN just had a tornado go right through the middle of town. This is turning into a tornado outbreak very quickly.
  7. Thursday will depend highly on the degree of cyclonic curvature within the mid/upper level flow. Most guidance is not in agreement with the 12z NAM/NAM 3 km idea of having a substantial shortwave eject ENE and induce stronger surface cyclogenesis and LLJ response. The 18z NAM also backed off on that idea. Moisture looks like a non issue and I don't see much concern for a washout especially further south, but the wind fields will be strongly affected by how amplified that feature is.
  8. 18z NAM is absolutely nasty in the Midwest (IA/IL) on Thursday. Other models generally are not as favorable although they appear to be shifting towards a solution where a coherent shortwave ejects ENE/NE after Wednesday, which would increase the threat. Very, very cold air aloft with temperatures approaching -20 at 500 mb and -45 to -50 and 300 mb means that you won't need a lot of moisture to get strong updrafts.
  9. Blocking pattern looks to setup beyond mid month given the ongoing significant SSW and prolonged disruption/decay of the stratospheric PV (perhaps the final warming). Would think moderation of some of the warmth should occur during that period along with a decrease in severe weather chances.
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