andyhb

That is an impressive shortwave coming through the S Plains for the end of June on Sunday. Setup looks more May-like synoptically.

Yeah this is a pretty wicked signal for rising severe potential past mid month somewhere from the GEFS (standardized anomalies of SCP aggregation).

Early June has been very quiet for most of the 2010s, the exception being 2010 itself. I definitely think the latter part of next week will have a chance beyond the amplification of the ULL near the Great Lakes. There is a strong signal in the GEFS for at least some activity in that period (and there has been for awhile), and note that the GEFS SCP chiclets on Gensini's website are anomaly based, rather than using raw count, so it gives a better idea of elevated activity relative to climo. Signal on the EPS is rather nebulous, but I wouldn't expect a really large signal in the heights at this point since it looks to be more centered around subtle disturbances in the flow.

Debris to around 20k ft with that Jefferson City tornado, that was a bad, bad hit.

130 kts GTG with a large TDS, major tor in Carl Junction there.

Tower going up W of SPS (Wichita Falls) via visible sat.

Pretty volatile looking 1530z sounding taken from the NWC here in Norman. Loaded gun more or less.

Can confirm this based on SPC image, showed Jon Hart adding it in.

Upstream observations are usually a good clue to what may unfold the day later. These ones speak volumes.

Sitting in Altus right now, eerie feeling for lack of a better term. The 00z HRRR is pretty frightening with a swarm of warm sector supercells followed by some monsters on the dryline. You don't see this kind of blend of late spring instability and early spring dynamics very often, folks. Could storm mode go awry? Yes. However, even a mixed mode here is likely yielding some high end severe.

D2 and D3 ENH w/ sig hatching for Tues/Wed. If I didn't have prior commitments, Tuesday would be a slam dunk chase as it looks like a pretty high quality TX Panhandle day. Wednesday is more up on the air in terms of how much the cold front sinks south, prior convective influences, and also the degree to which the shortwave deamplifies as it ejects during the day. If wave timing is off, low level winds may veer, muting the threat.

Blue/Bokchito tornado rated EF3, strongest in OK in April since 4/14/2012 (Woodward).

All I know is if the front is as far south as the Euro/NAM project (albeit they have been shifting north a bit), the threat is pretty much cooked. The LLJ axis to the E might get interesting though if there isn't a large amount of antecedent convection.

Lovely start to May, not. Just stupid.

Screw that. That is all. #analysis