andyhb

Jackpots of over 16” in central IA and S WI with this, seems like many areas got over 10” by the end of it.

Looks like the advertised spread the wealth event is coming into fruition. Seems like N IN is doing pretty well compared to expectations, widespread 6-12" elsewhere.

Des Moines looks like it’s getting hammered.

18z EPS mean is 10" for the QC even at 10:1 ratios, pretty impressive considering I'd expect the ratios to be better than that through a good chunk of the storm. This will punch above its weight class SLP depth wise given the favorable dynamics aloft and very strong LLJ/WAA minus a lot of strong convection in the warm sector. Height falls look excellent on the 00z GFS.

HRRR continues to be very impressive, albeit likely overdone. Verbatim would likely mean some pockets of 12-18" over IA and N IL/S WI.

IIRC that wave had a deepening trend closer to verification as well as the PV lobe became better resolved, I remember having some back and forth with @RCNYILWX about it at the time. The issue this time is that the upstream ridge isn't quite as amplified as that, and there's a bit more phasing required here for a higher end outcome.

500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.

Visibility is effectively zero on that Skydeck webcam now.

How has no one said "rdy 2 b buried" yet?

Incredible and I mean incredible tree/vegetation damage from Melissa across a large area in this video. There's only a few TCs in recent memory that have produced damage on this scale.

The damage in this overhead imagery is pretty mind boggling.

This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.

Wait, recon made another turn. They seem to be trying to find a flight path around the strong convection on the east side of the CDO.

Annnnnnd recon bailed.

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.