andyhb

PDS tornado watch out for the area surrounding the MS/OH River confluence. 80/80 tornado probabilities.

Probably worth pointing out that the 12z HRRR has a) a lot of morning convection and b) what is likely a significant tornado outbreak later across E MO and W IL. The outflow restricts some of the spatial extent of the threat, but recovery occurs quickly given the strength of the wind fields.

Very strong wording in the latest D3 for Monday, got the feeling this ends up as a D2 MDT.

00z model guidance in so far certainly does nothing to quell concerns for Monday. Could be a widespread outbreak based on just about everything I'm seeing, and the trough/EML looks to favor discrete convection for a pretty lengthy window. Going to need a dedicated thread for this soon.

Potential for a large scale severe weather event from the Lakes southward into the Mid South appears to be increasing for Monday (4/27, go figure) based on recent model guidance. EML looks potent across a large area with plenty of moisture, a favorable trough ejection (as of now), and strong shear across a large expanse of real estate.

I'm not so certain there won't be a few supercells further south into N IL, although things may be a bit more mixed out down there so the tornado threat is less. Haven't looked much into the QLCS threat yet, but I'd imagine with strong shear and strong instability that it is certainly elevated. Oh and the 18z NAM is not just bordering on a tornado outbreak in WI, it is one.

18z HRRR and 12z MPAS variants are bordering on a tornado outbreak in WI tomorrow. The former would be a huge problem for the I-94 corridor.

Tornado just went right through the middle of Clinton MO. Using this thread since it's the same system.

The EML on Friday morning/early afternoon is ridiculous and should raise alarm bells for anyone familiar with what is necessary to get an outbreak in the Midwest.

Friday could be a very volatile severe weather event up north in IA/WI/N IL/E MN based on what I'm seeing come off the latest guidance. Going to almost certainly need a thread for it.

This storm has been officially rated as a Category 5 on the RSI scale for the Upper Midwest. It is the first Cat 5 for any region since Jan 2016, the first for the Midwest since GHD 2011, and it is the highest value on the RSI achieved for any region since the Jan 1996 Nor'easter.

For lack of a more scientific analysis, holy shit.

Man that would be a massive bust if it verified.

Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).

Some pretty jaw dropping wording from the headlines of the latest AFD from NWS Marquette. This thing is going to be a truly remarkable (and dangerous) storm for even the winter-hardened folks of the UP.