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  1. Will the MJO and ENSO shifts have significant influence? Will our current late Feb. stormy pattern on the GFS continue as temps and dews increase in the Midwest? And what about the rubber band theory regarding tornado frequency after relatively modest totals the last few years? What do you think? After a rather disappointing met winter down in my neck of the woods I'm hoping that met spring provides interesting scenarios for us to follow.
  2. Latest parameters from model runs have me expecting a QLCS type scenario with some possible spin ups for this Friday over much of IN and Chi-town region. Very good lapse rates and CAPE around 1000 j/kg for this time of year is surprising in addition to all these record setting temps.
  3. Correct. I might be in Highland In on Friday visiting relatives and coming back to the Indpls area on Sat. so we'll see what happens in our state.
  4. Yes, and the geographical placement is a bit farther north than I would have initially expected. It seems the threat at present is for a strong squall line. But after what happened last night in northern San Antonio you never know.
  5. As was alluded to earlier in this thread wrt pattern, I get the feeling that this is going to be a much more active svr season than we have seen in recent springs. Baroclinic zone battles will be forthcoming.
  6. Models do struggle with these issues, particularly as we approach seasonal changes from what I have noticed. At least we have had consistency with a storm happening somewhere.
  7. 63 under hazy sunshine here. Rain down along the Ohio River.
  8. Yep, things are slowly progressing for next Thursday/Friday, but I still wish we didn't have low pressure meandering in the Gulf prior to the event. On the positive side it doesn't take all that much moisture or surface CAPE this time of year to get an event of interest.
  9. Yeah, if this thing slows down and maintains intensity in subsequent model runs things will get really interesting in parts of the Midwest.
  10. Model wars continue. Tuesday EURO has a 988 mb storm over northern Nebraska on Friday Feb. 24 vs GFS 1004 mb storm near Kansas City. Something to watch at least as we near the end of met winter, even though the EURO might likely lead to greater chances for svr.
  11. Houston and Lake Charles AFD's highlighting shear, helicity, and concern for tornadoes on Tuesday.
  12. "D" for me down here with Indpls having under 9 inch season total.
  13. Yeah, it will push the dry line farther east this spring.
  14. OK....I'm done with winter. I just noticed today that I have yellow, white, and purple crocuses starting to bloom in my yard!
  15. Monday's 12z GFS again has quite a potent fantasy storm at the end of its run around March 1. Of greater significance is something I've noticed and Gil Sebenste of NIU Weather commented on today is that the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm with no arctic intrusions. Research has shown that with the greater amount of available moisture the svr season could be enhanced. I'm thinking of the March 2, 2012 Henryville IN EF 4 as we come off a mild LaNina to more neutral territory and enter met spring.