Indystorm

So we have now exceeded 200,000 deaths in America due to COVID, a figure we weren't expected to reach until Election day. Now one model says we may hit nearly 400,000 deaths by the start of the new year if we maintain present behavior. And there are still many who think this is not a problem or will somehow go away on its own. I was startled to see a quote by Soren Kierkegaard from the early 19th century that seems strangely applicable to today. "There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true." Food for thought in our era of disinformation.

Yes, with all of the early focus on NOLA and the MS coast initially and then with all the category one talk I certainly hope people there realized what could happen.

18z suite models are trending east and stronger. Gotta watch this closely for the MS/AL region as well as the spread of GFS ensembles that include NOLA.

Finally looks like we may be getting convection in the CDO. Much more symmetrical than earlier today.

Still have to get hot towers on the west and south sides of the storm.

I think that is a realistic assumption to make at this moment in time. Still, as others have mentioned, surge and rain will be of serious concern as well.

We must watch what happens with the models later today. We must also watch in real time. That 60 mph current wind speed was not forecast to occur until 12 hours from now in earlier forecasts.

Shear seems to be decreasing as the ULL near se GA fills. I think Sally has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Not good for NOLA or the MS Gulf coast.

Look at the developing outflow and geographical envelope of clouds marking the size of soon to be Sally. I don't want to underestimate her.

Yes, it is the NAM, and I realize its limitations for tropics, but I also am wary of the geographical position of the storm and its speed and prior precedents of what can happen as CS Navy has mentioned.

New SPC meso discussion indicates 40% chance of a svr t storm watch being issued for northern IL and Chicago. 700 mb cap is weakening in far northern IL.

Convection blossoming in lower MI, especially just north of Grand Rapids......oh, well.... and SPC maintains slight risk tonight with a 5% tor risk smack dab over Chicago.

Wagons north according to SPC current meso discussion.

From LOT's afternoon discussion with hours of concern from 7 to midnight central time..highlights what we have been discussing Putting this altogether, a highly conditional severe thunderstorm threat exists after 00Z/7pm through the evening hours roughly around and north of the Kankakee river Valley westward toward Peoria. The most significant limiting factor will be the ability for incoming forcing to erode enough of the substantial low-level cap currently in place. If sustained deep updrafts can develop, the environment is favorable for semi-discrete linear segments with embedded supercell structures capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Additionally, a conditional QLCS tornado/mesovortex threat exists within any convection given impressively curved low-level hodographs producing effective SRH values possibly to 500 m2/s2 early to mid- evening. Marginal low- level CAPE values will be a major detriment to this potential, with a low-level warm nose below 700 hPa limiting low-level vortex stretching. Will still need to closely monitor the fine details of the thermo environment this evening as a kinematic environment like this that is highly supportive for tornadoes leaves some concern.

80/66 at Lansing. I'm going to be an optimist here and still follow SPC's afternoon slight outlook. Severe meso parameters continue to increase and a cap of 10-12 at 700 mb can be breakable. At least it's not thermonuclear.