Indystorm

This is the start of upcoming model wars, but man, what a gradient from Chicago westward on the GFS.

Even Tom Skilling briefly mentioned a possible storm with phase this evening. Had to go to this site to see what he was referencing. Guess it's time to buy a snow shovel for the winter.

Yes, I certainly admire Tom Skilling's weight loss following his surgery as well as all his meteorological skills.

Congrats to those in ne IN and se MI who saw snow this morning. I saw some nice snow video on TWC from Syracuse IN. Condolences to those who only had sleet.

Hope you soon feel better, and remember there are such viruses as the common cold and other rhinoviruses still around. Have you ever been out to a restaurant since March as of yet?

I just feel so angry at this time. And I do what therapists advise, such as pounding a pillow, yelling for a designated amount of minutes, taking a brisk walk. I also feel frustrated, particularly when I skype or talk with extended family members that still say the virus is no worse than the flu and direct me to a number of fake news websites to prove their point. The failure of political leadership to help ease a transition which could save many lives is also depressing. What has happened in this country to make people so gullible and suspicious of science and facts? Psychologists tell us that when we challenge a person's previously held worldview we are dealing with the fulcrum of the human mind and we seek out people and sites that will reinforce our prior assumptions. Copernicus, Galileo, Darwin and Freud brought us new revelations about the universe and ourselves. There are some who still think we never sent astronauts to the moon. I've had both a scientific and theological background in my professional training and I respect insights from both fields of knowledge. But it grieves and angers me particularly wrt this pandemic that people cannot take a clue from the "greatest generation" who willingly sent their sons and daughters off to war and faced rationing of food, fuel, and other materials for the common good of the nation in a patriotic effort, and so many of us say this pandemic is not as severe as we think and quibble about wearing masks.

With high helicity in the tor watch area....700...these storms are going to spin as they move east. Key to whether or not they produce may be moisture and low level lapse rates.

First tornado warning for Missouri for this Saturday evening episode. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 620 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 645 PM CST. * AT 620 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SENECA, OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAXTER SPRINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEOSHO... SENECA... GRANBY... DIAMOND... WENTWORTH... RITCHEY... RACINE...

Just starting to see lightning now on my western horizon. Squall line is coming and hopefully weakening. My car is near trees.

This line is packing a punch for Chicago metro area due to kinematics. Mixed CAPE is less than 500, but helicity up to 350-400. Wow if that instability had been greater!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 254 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 330 PM CST. * AT 254 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLETA, OR NEAR MORRISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... COLETA AROUND 300 PM CST. MILLEDGEVILLE AROUND 305 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HITT, MALVERN, FRANKLIN CORNERS, WHITE PIGEON AND CARROLL COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

Yeah, and a number of NWS radars are having problems.

Slight risk indeed, with 5% tor probs......could be an interesting afternoon and evening. Washington IL tor was Nov. 17, 2013 so we know we can get svr in this second season. Cloud breaks over parts of IL will enhance insolation and instability. That was a high risk, PDS tor watch scenario however, as instability was much higher than what is expected today. Low pressure near KC is already prompting SPC discussion of an upcoming possible svr or tor watch for much for much of central to ne MO into west central IL.

The lowest estimate of world wide deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic is 21 million, when world population was less than a third of today....675,000 deaths in America. Source....John Barry's "The Great Influenza," a very good historical read. My take is that there is a divide between those who want to get the economy going at all costs and let the virus chips fall where they may and those who believe the government has a role in public health to restrict certain freedoms in the interest of greater good, such as gas, food, and other types of rationing during WWII.

Just heard on WGN tv news that Gov. Holcomb is activating the national guard to assist at nursing homes since over half of the deaths have occurred there. They will not be performing medical duties but will assist with clerical and screening activities to relieve some of the burden on these courageous first responders who have been dealing with the stress of caring for all these months. Don't know if this is just in selected counties or statewide for nursing homes in Indiana.