Indystorm

I'm thinking that the dry line will be displaced farther east than usual which has seemed to have happened in recent seasons with a relative lack of Plains activity. Way out on the models, of course, but I'd watch the March 4-5 time frame now for lower and possibly mid MS valley for severe wx.

I have to admit the wind is increasing more than I expected for this system.

But spring and svr wx season is coming... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 442 PM EST MON FEB 15 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN DOUGHERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... NORTHWESTERN BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... EAST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 515 PM EST. * AT 442 PM EST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF COLQUITT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MORGAN AND LEARY AROUND 455 PM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE COMMISSARY HILL, IVEYS MILL, MILFORD, CRESTVIEW, BERMUDA, DOUGLASVILLE, HOLT, PATMOS AND DAMASCUS.

Nor do winter warnings often occur from southern TX to Maine.

And I used to live in Fortville for six years so I pay attention to what is going on down Indpls-Carmel way.

As radar indicates the heavier returns are now approaching the Kankakee valley from the sw. That 700 mb low in eastern KS is great to ensure we get the goods in Chicagoland.

Record breaker over Jan. 1967 storm......23 inches I believe.

That Chicago LES band extends as far ne as Muskegon. Chicago will really get it today.

And I was living in Indpls at that time attending seminary. Apartment where I lived lost power for two days. I feel fortunate enough to have experienced that storm and Chicago's Jan. 26-27 1967 historic snowstorm as well while living in Hobart Indiana.

Aside from our Chi-town area concerns I just saw that 2.5 million Texas customers are without power due to an excess of demand over capacity with the power grid due to the storm.

Models are not the be all and end all in forecasting even though we have fun with them here. They are a useful tool to be used with good old fashioned synoptic meteorology..

I've been reading that NWS is not expecting wind and duration to meet the criteria at present. Mainly heavy snowfall rates.

That's why I trust Hoosier and Ricky. lol

I doubt it, especially if the storm keeps trending negative tilt. Large swath of good moisture for central In to Ohio Valley. Keep watching what's happening from TX on northeast.

Gotta love the GFS for next Friday Feb. 19 snow total for the Calumet region.