Indystorm

And I am perplexed as to why the deep Southern states continue to get wave after wave of svr storms when I would have thought as we approach mid May the Plains and Midwest would become more active as is usually the case.

Rain mixed with snow at Valpo around ten am this Sunday morning per a report I saw.

And a new svr storm watch just north of the tor watch. I always am cautious regarding warm fronts in the spring especially in enhanced risk areas.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 642 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT. * AT 642 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARRISTOWN, OR 9 MILES WEST OF DECATUR, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... HARRISTOWN AROUND 645 PM CDT. DECATUR AROUND 650 PM CDT. MOUNT ZION AND LONG CREEK AROUND 705 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOODY, ELWIN, HERVEY CITY, DECATUR AIRPORT AND OAKLEY.

I think we might have a poster on the forum from Mt. Zion area.

Aiming for Decatur area if it stays on the ground.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 616 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT. * AT 615 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MECHANICSBURG, OR 15 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ILLIOPOLIS AND MOUNT AUBURN AROUND 625 PM CDT. NIANTIC AROUND 635 PM CDT. HARRISTOWN AROUND 640 PM CDT.

esoscale Discussion 0503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131... Valid 032215Z - 032345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 through the remainder of the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats, but a tornado is also possible, particularly with any supercell structures. DISCUSSION...Organized linear segments and a discrete supercell have matured across northern and central portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 over the past couple of hours. A couple of severe hail/damaging gust reports have recently been received with the more discrete convection across west-central IL. Here, temperatures have been able to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with mid 60s F dewpoints contributing to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. While mid to upper tropospheric flow is not particularly strong, modest veering with height is contributing to 35+ kts of effective bulk shear, supporting updraft organization. The severe threat is expected to remain locally higher with the more discrete storms across central IL, where instability is more robust relative to points farther north. Low-level shear is weak across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 overall, but given some directional shear in the boundary layer, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with any supercell structures.

Northern parts of Springfield are not out of danger if this thing should make a right turn.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 530 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 529 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLEASANT PLAINS, OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ATHENS AROUND 550 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SALISBURY, LINCOLNS NEW SALEM, CANTRALL AND CAPITAL AIRPORT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 450 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT. * AT 450 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ARENZVILLE, OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEARDSTOWN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... VIRGINIA AND LITERBERRY AROUND 510 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PHILADELPHIA.

Bulk wind shear and helicity are both starting to increase from southern to central IL per SPC mesopage. Line starting to bulge and separate in a few places. This could get interesting.

Svr storm watch issued for much of central lL until 9 p.m.

St Louis issues first svr warning for Lewis County in ne MO, the first warning of what may be our first genuine svr concerns for central IL this season.

5% tor risk now brought up as far north as I-80 in northern IL in morning outlook due to approaching MCV.