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09-10 analogy

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About 09-10 analogy

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    tenleytown, dc
  • Interests
    irony and black humor, hiking, crossfit, reading history and lit'ry novels, (trying to) match wits with my daughter, playwrighting, and storms of all types of course

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  1. 09-10 analogy

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    How’d they get through Dorian? SW of Charleston it wasn’t bad at all. Nothing like Matt or Irma. My impression was that it wasn’t too bad up the coast to the border, except for the Charleston downtown flooding and a couple of spin ups.
  2. 09-10 analogy

    September Discobs 2019

    All just prologue to the conga line of tropical system the 0z Euro sends our way starting late next week. Of course no real effects in the DMV, but at least we’ll get cloud cover to knock temps down. Around here, you takes what you can gets.
  3. 09-10 analogy

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    So, 16 days of Dorian. Sure seems like it was a lot longer.
  4. 09-10 analogy

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Anyone else ever recall seeing a PDS Tornado Warning with a hurricane-affiliated tornado?
  5. 09-10 analogy


    Effects on the Lowcountry offshore islands (e.g., HHI, Fripp, Harbour, Hunting) seem quite minimal at this time. One person on the Fripp Next Door page said the King Tides from a few days ago were worse than anything from Dorian. There's still a high tide later today, but evidently the effects at least from Beaufort on south were less than Matthew. EDITED to say "less than Matthew" instead of "nothing like Matthew." I'm basing this on only a few observational data points from social media, so I shouldn't be so assertive. That said, it seems like Dorian was not as bad.
  6. 09-10 analogy

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    And for Fort Pulaski (nearer Savannah and my interests in Fripp Island), last I looked, Dorian would be a close third behind Matthew and Irma. Matthew was about 12.5 and Irma about 12.2. Last I looked, Dorian was forecast to be 10.9. OT, but I don't think Hugo showed up even in the top 10 historic tides at Fort Pulaski. For Beaufort County, HHI, and southward, Hugo was just a run-of-the-mill stormy night.
  7. 09-10 analogy

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    I gotta say, the journalistic philosophy of Bahamas Press, at least from its social media content, seems to have a distinctly yellow tint to it. Most assuredly places like Abaco have been brutalized and there are fatalities, maybe a good number. And maybe the Bahamanian authorities' response is not ideal. Not surprising there, as this is a nationwide catastrophe that no amount of planning, I would think, could prepare for. But BP with its ALL CAPS AND EXCLAMATION POINTS! rhetorical style reminds me of some of the less savory approaches used by other media outlets whose claims of objectivity sour with their ready recourse to unsupported accusations of deliberate negligence. Of course the press should hold the authorities accountable. But darkly assuming the PM is deliberately lying about fatalities, when parts of the Bahamas are still getting pounded by Dorain, may or may not be irresponsible, but certainly isn't helpful. At least now. And if they do take that tack, which is certainly within the right of a free media (which I assume the Bahamas has), then maybe the organization shouldn't present itself as strictly reportage, which to me it seems to do. I know this is OT even for the banter board, so if it's deleted, that's OK. As someone in media, I just wanted to get my impression out there, see how others are reacting to BP.
  8. 09-10 analogy

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    That convection to the SE of Dorian, it doesn't seem to be wrapping into the storm. Would it be considered "part" of Dorian? Toward the end of the loop, it seems to be dying out while the inner core of Dorian is really putting on the Ritz, stadium effect and all. In fact there seems to be some outflow pushing into that blob of convection and weakening it. Or maybe this is all just a phantasm.
  9. 09-10 analogy

    August Banter 2019

    Main thread, as, lamentably, so often, being soured by pompous and ignorant dorks who cite their decades long experience at "tracking" as irrevocable proof that a slow moving Dorian will upwell enough water in its approach to Florida so that it will hit as at best a weak CAT 1. Never mind the best in the world in Miami, with the best tools available, now forecasting a CAT 4 landfall. But, you see, they don't have the snowflake special insight of grizzled veterans of "tracking" using NOAA weather radio and lat/long map plots back in 1979 when they were analyzing David with their state-of-the-art dart throwing. Put the blindfold on, pin the tail on Dorian, like they did with David. And Frederic. And etc. Not to knock David. It was a hell of a storm for the mid-Atlantic. One of my earliest weather memories, growing up in northern DE.
  10. 09-10 analogy

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Matthew and Irma both were pretty dicey situations along the SC coast. My interest is a house I own on Fripp Island (near Beaufort) with my sister (that we need to sell, but that's most assuredly OT). It is built 8 feet off the ground on one of the "highest" (10 or so feet) points on the Island. So it'd take a dead on strike from a Hugo-redux to probably endanger it, but still .... Matthew had regular hurricane wind force gusts (the island next to Fripp, Hunting Island, is a state park, and the tree damage there was immense.) Storm surge was bad in HHI, Hunting, and into Beaufort itself. (For some topographical reason, Fripp didn't suffer so much from surge as from the wind.) Then Irma came along the next year and broke many of the surge marks set by Matthew (and this time the surge was a problem on Fripp). Winds with Irma weren't as strong, however. Then Michael passing to west gave it a glancing blow (though with no real problems) and Florence menaced the sea islands somewhat but ended up barking more than it bit or even snarled. So the op EC track, as I understand it, would move Dorian right along the coast of FLA/GA and maybe SC as well. 20 miles out of sea, a lot of rain. 20 miles inland and potentially quite a mess. No means is that guaranteed but yesterday at this time it was looking that the SC lowcountry was more or less out of the line of fire. Less justifiable to say that today. And always in the back of my mind, is this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Sea_Islands_hurricane Some similarities in that track and in some of the modeling with Dorian. I want that megaridge to build and hold its ground, even if we soar into the 90s well into next week. Sorry if this went a little off-topic. Just venting, like any good hurricane does.
  11. 09-10 analogy

    August Discobs 2019

    That storm has weakened but is it ever presenting here an ominous look to the W/NW. Plus CG strokes out in front, prolly in Great Falls area now. This would be the third one of the day, although the second one was not much. Still, a bit reminiscent of June 4, 2008; one of my favorite severe days ever. Today doesn't compare to that, but the multiple rounds after the big one that comes through in the mid/late afternoon does reflect the pattern. Back then of course we had five or six rounds, it seemed; it didn't calm down until after midnight, IIRC.
  12. 09-10 analogy

    August Discobs 2019

    Honestly that was about as impressive as anything I can remember since the derecho. Dime-sized hail, winds well into the 50s (times like this I wish I had an anemometer, even a cheap handheld one), lots of CG, torrential rain. Had it all. Another one incoming. While driving I saw a couple of streets cordoned off (I'm assuming downed trees) and lots of small branches and foliage littering the streets. I have power but a good bit of the Tenleytown area doesn't. Second significant hailer (well, for around here) this season. At least dime size won't dent up the car like the larger hail from June 2 did. Nice to be in the sweet spot for a change. My subjective take is that upper NW has been kinda fringed a lot this season. But we were evidently bullseyed today.
  13. 09-10 analogy

    July Discobs 2019

    That’s some June 2012-ish rhetoric there
  14. 09-10 analogy

    July Discobs 2019

    I was just on the southeastern side of that cell. Even with the limited visibility from my house (didn't get a chance to go up to Ft. Reno) I could see numerous ground strokes. Can only imagine what it must have been like to be directly under it! Hopefully upper NW bullseyes today. MBY has been fringed a lot this summer, except for the g/d hailstorm several weeks back that caused $1500 or so damage to my car (at least that was the estimate, you have to look pretty hard to see more than one or two dents.
  15. 09-10 analogy

    July Discobs 2019

    Not a bad little storm. Certainly halting the HI train in its tracks. Some pretty close in CG with it.