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About Hoosier

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    Griffith, IN

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  1. Re: the Euro, there has definitely been a more progressive trend overall. Here are the past several 00z and 12z runs, valid at 00z Dec 1.
  2. I think somebody in/around northwest IN may make a run toward at least transient blizzard conditions with the LES with that enhanced boundary layer mixing downwind of the lake. Not sure on whether that can be achieved with the synoptic storm. My initial thought is no for the most part, unless it bombs out more, but it looks windy regardless.
  3. Very possible. Highest confidence in OH though.
  4. I'd probably start getting excited if I were in Ohio. Not a done deal but generally honing in on an outcome.
  5. 00z NAM is a bit slower with the southern stream closed low so far. *Could* mean a farther west solution down the line on this run.
  6. Swedish Life Expectancy to Drop for First Time in Century Due to Covid-19 (Bloomberg) -- Life expectancy is falling in Sweden, which the country’s statistics agency says is directly tied to the coronavirus pandemic. The average age people live “has increased steadily in Sweden from 1900 to 2019,” the agency said in a statement on Wednesday. “The fact that it’s now falling stands out.” Sweden has suffered a much higher Covid-19 mortality rate than its Nordic neighbors, with its old-age care homes particularly hard hit. The country’s decision not to impose a lockdown remains controversial, and authorities are now shifting gear to place outright bans on some forms of social interaction to fight the virus. For men, average life expectancy has already fallen to 80.8 in the year through August, from 81.3, Statistics Sweden said. For women, it fell to 84.4 from 84.7. Based on the development so far, the statistics agency said it expects that “Covid-19 will cut life expectancy this year.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/swedish-life-expectancy-to-drop-for-first-time-in-century-due-to-covid-19/ar-BB1blluD?ocid=uxbndlbing
  7. The AstraZeneca vaccine is taking on substantial criticism because of how they ran the trials.
  8. What's sad is that all of those recommendations immediately made sense as to why it could increase the transmission risk. Been at this too long.
  9. No doubt there will be some ugly looking data dumps on the rebound.
  10. Don Sutherland is going with a warm winter in the Lakes (>3F above average). But considering the temps, his snow projections for Chicago and Detroit aren't terrible.
  11. Sort of hit a wall. Almost 20 states haven't reported yet.
  12. Lots of cars down the street. Somebody's having a big gathering.
  13. I did look at it a bit, and yes, it would not be your classic colder LES event. The thermodynamics are mediocre, but the duration and at least potential for a very long fetch could still result in some pretty decent amounts somewhere imo. And likely to spread well inland given the robust low level flow.
  14. IWX discussion. Lol @ the first paragraph The social media rumblings are gradually turning to a roar regarding the snow potential Monday through perhaps Wednesday. This event is far from a slam dunk. Regardless of the track of the surface low that has everyone`s attention, there is also a notable lake effect snow threat. The previous three GFS runs (12z Today included) show a closed low at 500 mb over southern Illinois (18z Monday), and a surface low near Pittsburgh. The 12Z ECMWF upper-level pattern is a touch farther east and less of a closed low at 500 mb. However, the surface lows are in similar locations. Go back three runs and the solutions are somewhat steady. However, add an additional 3-4 model runs and the solutions are erratic. I mention this because I would like to see even more run to run consistency. Tracing the northern stream 500-mb jet, this feature should arrive onshore of British Columbia on Friday afternoon. This *should* improve the modeling of this feature in subsequent runs, and therefore improve the confidence in the forecast track. Turning briefly to ensemble clusters (00z Thursday runs), the overall shape of the 500- mb pattern for the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS are similar. However, there continues to be a lot of noise within these patterns. That is, while there may be a 500-mb low located in our neighborhood, its placement amongst the members varies notably. This decreases forecast confidence.
  15. Member #49 must be a wrapped up son of a gun.