Floydbuster

Almost all the models take this system straight back west under the monster ridge.

I have to agree with Josh about Hurricane Andrew. I was only 3/4 years old, obviously I don't remember tracking it. (The first hurricanes I ever remember hearing about were Gordon 1994 and Felix 1995) However, even with the now dated-1992 radar, Andrew was so small, so strong, and clearly rapidly intensifying. The one thing that does surprise me with regard to Hurricane Andrew is the rather high pressure (922 mb). I'm quite surprised Andrew didn't drop further. My guess is the dominant high pressure ridging to the north kept Andrew from going sub-920 mb. But the damage from Andrew was so severe. My friend down in Florida showed me areas of trees in the Florida City region back in 2010 and even 18 years later you could see signs of Andrew's winds. I understand building codes have come quite a long way, as even as recently as the 1990s storms like the ones of the last 15 years would have caused even greater destruction. I'm assuming Andrew's sustained winds were more in the 175 mph range, not 165. We'll never know. I would love to see a recon or satellite image of the Labor Day Storm of 1935. My assumption is that it became a Category 5 early in the morning (much like Dorian), likely 160 mph, and then went full blast into the landfall around 2pm in the Upper Keys. 892 mb with an eye that tiny, it likely had sustained winds possibly even greater than 185 mph. Maybe more like 205 mph sustained. The stories of sand causing sparks is something I don't often hear about in hurricanes, and the idea of such a massive storm surge in the Keys despite the tiny size leads me to believe there were horrific winds.

They don't seem that enthusiastic about Jerry, mostly because the models don't seem to be either.

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

This thing has really blown some nice convection this evening.

This year's ridging just doesn't seem as strong as we've seen in the last couple of seasons. This is why storms like Dorian, Humberto and now possibly 97L do the whole "slow down" and "stalling" stuff. There isn't enough of a dominant pushing ridge.

The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification. Or the model is on crack.

Pretty close to a landfall near Cape Lookout...

Still tracking Dorian on the video updates. This is actually video update #17 on Hurricane Dorian, beating the previous video update record of 15 videos during Hurricane Irma in 2017.

Corrected maximum sustained winds in table. That was an error. Not a Cat 3.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 79.1W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

I mean, this will likely not be a major hurricane near closest approach or landfall, but based on what I woke up to an hour ago, I find it to be quite a ferocious storms scraping South Carolina. (Of course, I just took a vacation to Myrtle Beach and did fishing near Murrell's Inlet, so that might be adding to my visualization of impact).

No doubt. But I am very disappointed in the models with regards to genesis. Neither the GFS, CMC or EURO showed any activity up through the last two weeks of August into Labor Day weekend. We ended up with 4 tropical storms, and a Cat 5 hurricane.