Floydbuster

Looks like a nasty night out there, but perhaps not as insane as some earlier forecasts, thankfully. (I'm just guessing that because my social media feed is going insane with cope threads when earlier it was chasers sayings things like "memories of Joplin 2011".

The good news for those of us in Northeast Ohio is that the models seem to show a dramatic decrease in storm intensity, coverage and even lightning by the time it makes it all the way here in the east. Nevertheless, it sure seems like Indiana and potentially parts of Western Ohio could get a smack before night-time cooldown decreases the storm intensity.

https://twitter.com/fmnews__/status/1783980266643431752/photo/1 Is that debarking on the trees? Good lord.

The tornadoes that Ohio has seen this year don't even begin to compare with the hype I've seen for severe events the last few months. The way social media acts is insane.

Good point. I do see a trend of Thursday-Friday twitter hype for the upcoming Monday-Tuesday work week, and it just dawned on me this seems to keep repeating without any *actual* large events.

Legit question: For several weeks, actually over two months now, my social media feeds have been filled with images of model runs and warnings of severe weather. Soundings and HRRR runs and NAM runs for the upcoming week, etc. etc. Yet week after week passes without any images of tornadoes or tennis ball sized hail or anything half as significant as what I see warned about on social media the week prior. This goes for the Ohio valley, the Great Plains, pretty much anywhere. So my question is...are the models overestimating storms this year? Or am I just on social media filled with salivating amateur storm chasers desperate to get a glimpse of a funnel cloud?

Here comes the meltdown.

Worth a watch, but we will see. So far tonight's event out west seems to be underperforming bigtime.

I came to this thread to see if anything was taking place because Twitters weather nuts are strangely quiet and I thought today was going to be insanity...

I just think this year feels a little more hype driven than past years. Whether or not that's because of La Nina or because of storm chasers being disappointed they haven't had 1974 or 2011 chase seasons, I don't know. I do feel like everyone is a little too eager to err on the side of enhanced severe threats than the likelihood that they're more scattered. When I'd forecast "the potential for some occasional scattered rumbles of thunder" they're saying things like "Mod risk! Tornado threats! Chase mode!" and I think its way off. I'm speaking less about the official mets and more about social media, although local mets seem to buy into the hype too and that impacts people's opinions when it seems 90% of these go bust. Twitter today is literally post after post of people coming down off their Monday tornado high as the models have significantly backed off as severe a threat for the plains next week, and depression with the likelihood of a cold snap for most of the remaining weeks of April. My original question was whether there are things they see that make them expect such hellish weather that don't come to fruition, or if it's more that these people are seeing what they want to see? Two very big differences.

What exactly do these people (SPC, Storm Chasers, Social Media crazies) keep seeing to make them get so bullish on severe risks the last few weeks? Literally, twitter had people talking about 1974 outbreak for Ohio last week, now they're talking about May 3, 1999 for the Great Plains/Oklahoma next week. I'm assuming those are rare events. Why is everyone so crazy bullish? After these events underperform, what exactly is not occurring that these people keep expecting to happen? Is it not enough instability? Is it not high enough dew points?

If I'm being honest...forget about the severe threat...I think that even the rainfall forecast may be too aggressive. I'm currently under a dark yellow blob on radar and outside is literally a springtime steady mist-type rain with 5 kt variable winds. I'm wondering if not only is the severe way too overestimated, but whether or not even the rainfall and wind forecast should be lowered. Is the yellow blob rain on radar not hitting the ground? What the hell?

Agree. I think many areas especially around Coshocton over towards Pittsburgh have been really waterlogged.

Here's the 00Z HRRR lightning map. Much less and way south, almost all in West Virginia. I don't see any reason why the SPC will keep such a higher risk, and especially not as far north as it was this afternoon.