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Windspeed

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About Windspeed

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    ♪♫ Bucketbot ♪♫

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. Vanu began a westward drift and should avoid landfall as a strong cyclone. Globals show a westward motion for a few days before eventually getting sheared off. A weaker system may still get pulled via the low level flow into Pakistan/NW India so flooding rainfall may still be a concern in the coming week.
  2. Windspeed

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    Day 1 Outlook Graphic...
  3. Windspeed

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    SPC sticking with marginal for Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...MISSOURI/ARKANSAS VICINITY...AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast and coastal Carolinas, Missouri/Arkansas vicinity, and west Texas. Marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... For convective purposes, the mid/upper-level pattern will be dominated by a high-amplitude, synoptic-scale trough now located from northwestern ON across the upper Mississippi Valley, to the KS/MO border area and deep south TX. By 12Z, this trough should shift eastward to Lakes Superior and Michigan, IN, middle TN, AL, and the north-central Gulf. Several embedded/minor shortwaves will traverse the associated cyclonic-flow field through the period, contributing to relatively maximized potential convective coverage on the mesoscale. Farther west, a weak shortwave trough will move inland over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern CA, contributing to locally gusty dry thunderstorms, as noted in the SPC fire-weather outlook. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary frontal zone from southern SC across central/southern GA, to near the LA coastline, and across deep south TX. This boundary should move little through the day, while becoming more diffuse west of central/eastern GA. Another cold front was drawn from Hudson Bay across northern ON, Lake Superior, to a low near CID, to another weak low near TUL, and finally, to yet another weak low near INK. This front will move eastward/southeastward through the period, reaching lower MI, southern MO, the Arklatex region, and portions of central/southwest TX by 00Z. By 12Z, the approach of the mid/upper trough will induce frontal-low formation over southeastern Lower MI. The cold front will extend from the MI low across eastern TN, southeastern MS, and south-central TX. ...Southeastern CONUS to Ohio Valley... Scattered thunderstorms should develop through this afternoon in an arc of favorable buoyancy and weak CINH, wrapping around the southern/western Appalachians, along and outside of the low-theta-e damming air mass. Isolated severe hail and damaging to marginally severe gusts are possible. The most favorable conditions at various levels for severe will be horizontally displaced from each other across this broad, arching area, but individual elements may contribute to at least marginal severe potential locally. Moisture quality and theta-e will be greatest over the FL/GA/Carolinas swath, while mid/upper flow, cooling aloft, and deep shear will increase northward/northwestward through the western Appalachians/Ohio Valley lobe. Warm and moist advection north of the frontal zone, across western GA and eastern portions of AL/KY, will contribute to destabilization through the afternoon, in tandem with diabatic heating, enabling a narrow corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to develop there. Despite modest midlevel lapse rates, pockets of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should develop this afternoon in the Southeast. Weak low-level flow is forecast area-wide, except for some hodograph enhancement possible above the surface late afternoon and evening near the Atlantic coastal areas of GA/Carolinas. An assortment of boundaries will focus convection, including the frontal zone, outflow, differential- heating areas, confluence lines in the warm sector, and sea breezes. ...Ozarks and vicinity... Airmass recovery following the morning clouds/convection should become favorable for the next round of thunderstorms -- this time including surface-based cells -- by mid/late afternoon. Seasonably cold, -16 to -18 deg C 500-mb temperatures will spread over this region this afternoon, near the mid/upper-level trough. When juxtaposed with residual boundary-layer moisture, afternoon surface diabatic heating and related strengthening of low/middle-level lapse rates, forecast soundings reasonably suggest around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with little or no MLCINH and a well-mixed subcloud layer. Organization will be tempered by lack of more robust moisture and shear, with little directional shear and effective-shear magnitudes generally less than 30 kt. However, strong anvil-level flow will aid in ventilation aloft, and the most robust cells may offer marginally severe hail/gusts. With convective potential extending northward into much of IA, the northern bound of the marginal risk area is, in reality, much fuzzier than the graphical line indicates, but already low-end severe potential still appears to diminish with northward extent into lesser magnitudes of cloud-layer shear and low-level theta-e. ...TX Big Bend/Trans Pecos... Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over this region south of the cold front, especially near higher terrain where diabatic heating will erode MLCINH preferentially. Severe hail and strong to marginally severe gusts are possible from any sustained convection that can form, though convective coverage is in question. Low-level convergence will be maximized near the generally southward-moving surface low, and any associated convergence zone extending southward. The main uncertainty involves whether associated lift will be sufficient to form/maintain thunderstorms long enough to produce severe, in an environment characterized by steep low/middle-level lapse rates and adequate boundary-layer moisture. Surface dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s F contribute to potential MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg in modified model soundings. In areas south to southeast of the low where an easterly surface wind component will enhance directional shear, 35-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes may be found. Any severe threat in this region should be conditional and short-lived, decreasing markedly after dark. ..Edwards.. 06/12/2019
  4. TC Vayu in the NW Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea is forecast to become a Category 2 cyclone in the coming days and make landfall over the NW Indian and Pakistani coastline / borderlands. HWRF is most agressive in intensification making Vayu a Category 4 cyclone. The late track may be quite problematic for significant flash flooding as the cyclone will slow down and drift somewhere between Sindhu (Indus) of Pakistan and Mahi River Valleys.
  5. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    There is a strong MCS along the ITCZ boundary there that is attached to an inverted wave axis stretched back over Guinea and Sierra Leone. There is clearly mid level rotation on visible, but microwave does not show anything at the surface yet. If it persists, not impossible that an MCV/LLC could cutoff at the surface, but it would need to move WNW and break away from the ITCZ boundary. OTOH, if you will glance at the central Atlantic, you will easily notice a very strong and persistent westerly upper level jet out of the Caribbean very typical of this time of year. Anything that would come out of the eastern MDR is going to get shredded until that subtropical jet lifts out.
  6. Windspeed

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    Though they kept the graphic marginal, the wording is such that they definitively left the door open for a slight risk to be added tomorrow over the eastern Valley. Perhaps even a small area of enhanced if buoyancy and lapse rates are in line with the sharpening trough. We shall see...
  7. Windspeed

    Spring-Summer Observations 2019

    Though we needed the rain, this is just too much at once. 4 inches since yesterday and potentially another 2-3 tonight if this southeasterly training maintains into mid AM hours. Edit: Fortunately the persistent heavy downpours tapered off to lighter showers around midnight.
  8. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    2019 hurricane forecast & landfall probabilities raised by Colorado State https://www.artemis.bm/news/2019-hurricane-forecast-landfall-probabilities-raised-by-colorado-state/
  9. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    High risk for flooding has been issued today for portions of Texas and Louisiana by the NWS/WPC due to the tropical disturbance over the western GOM.
  10. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Meh, the disturbance in the western GOM probably has degraded from "iffy" to unlikely at this point. There is still disorganized convection and perhaps a broad mid-level low, possibly even weak surface circulation near Brownsville. Despite current trends the HWRF continues to develop a deeper asymmetric tropical storm that gets pulled NNE-NE into LA, but unless the disturbance takes a drastic turn in consolidating convection, I'm giving up expecting anything other than weaker lows merging over ETX and MS Valley. Still significant impacts from severe storms and flash flooding over next 2-5 days to watch from those points, east.
  11. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    There may be enough time for a TS to become fairly organized prior to landfall Thur/Fri along the NW to central gulf coast. Though in a sheared environment and asymmetric in structure, the low may support severe supercells that ride over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the weekend.
  12. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Based on this video and the report above, it appears the tornado did weaken and rope out as it moved into Canton proper. Probably cycled as the couplet seemed to reintensify NE of the city. If so, they are fortunate, as it clearly looked intense in the earlier video. Still likely caused damage as there were high winds and RFD on the right side of the meso that clearly moved through the area based on early photos, but hopefully the folks at the trade event took shelter.
  13. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Video of the Canton tornado when it was SW of the city.
  14. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Donut hole moving right over Canton. The couplet looks broader, perhaps weaker than before on velocity, however, unsure if due to distance moving away from radar or circulation of a large tornado.
  15. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    There it is...
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