Windspeed

That's due to SPH placement. I mentioned last night that it's really the only thing suppressing TC development. Keeping the bottle corked, per se. Once the A-B begins to slightly weaken and gain latitude into a more typical position for ASO, given other factors in place, the fireworks should begin. There will always be a plume here or there, but once the ITCZ lifts, the MDR will become more favorable for CV waves.

This is a reminder that we had this microwave presentation in the Caribbean Sea, in the Atlantic, on.... July 2nd.... Better thank the current interseasonal behometh Azores-Bermuda ridge suppressive regime right now. That's the only thing holding in the cork. Every other climatological factor is a bloody damn powder keg. This season is going to suck. And yes, that is intense hyperbolic acid coming from me to pour in your stiff drink. It's going to be very bad.....

We've seen these crazy cyclonic loops in the past in interaction with the mountainous island of Taiwan. It's still quite eye-opening, no pun intended.

Gaemi has thrown on the brakes and made a hard left turn down the eastern coastline. It's absolutely incredible to see such a scenario unfold in real-time.

Well, that escalated quickly. Gaemi is now a powerful Super Typhoon with a very intense eyewall and evolving concentric structure. Most likely, this concentric banding structure will result in an ERC prior to landfall and hopefully bring down intensity prior to crossing the shoreline. Hopefully, any such cycle will not be completed with haste to allow reintensification, but Gaemi is no doubt going to be a powerful strike on Taiwan regardless.

Typhoon Gaemi is visibly intensifying and may peak prior to land interaction. Moderate northerly shear has decreased somewhat to allow Gaemi to intensify. The eyewall has become thick and intense on the radar, but the eye is still cloud-filled.

Wrong thread.. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48875-wpac-indian-ocean-and-southern-hemisphere-tropical-cyclones/&share_tid=48875&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app

Nobody is ragging on you. You have valid points that the numbers of NS in some of the higher-respected forecasts might be too high. 2024 could be a lot like 2017: Quality over quantity (i.e. hyperactive ACE values but a lower number of named TCs), which, perhaps, is an even worse outcome. As that means several long-duration / long-tracking TCs with multiple landfall threats. Big ACE producers verses frequent occurance of short duration events that stack up to lower ACE values. It's all guesswork at this point however. I do think some of these numbers are too high as well. Not because 25+ NS isn't possible this year. It certainly is possible. It's just so rare that it's harder to forecast that versus just forecasting hyperactivity in general, even though that is also rare. 2020, a good example, got a lot of junk TCs that encountered unfavorable environments that merely didn't stack a lot of ACE, regardless if that years also had a few big producers. Then you have years like 2004 and 2017 that had lower numbers of NS, but numerous violent long-tracking hurricanes. Of course, we also have '33 and '05 that had both high numbers of NS (for their record-breaking seasons) and big ACE generators ('33 still holds the record there).

Good lord. Unfortunately, they're dead wrong and doing what they always do. Their annual moaning and complaining posts because it's been more than 12 days without a major hurricane. It's nothing to do with climatology or interseasonal states. It's not even a lack of understanding about patterns. They're just trolling. Back to reality. Scroll up and read. This slow period and the preceding period of activity has been forecasted well. The reasons Beryl occurred when it did have been thoroughly discussed. Even still, Beryl struggled through portions of the central and NW Caribbean due to, yep, climatological factors. Unfortunately, those factors weren't in place in the western MDR and eastern Caribbean, hince we've a devastated Grenadines, and it's not even August yet. Not to mention, we have a $6+ billion CONUS landfall already. Enjoy the quiet interseasonal period, folks. Mid-August through October is going to be crazy. People will be complaining about not being able to keep up with all the chaos.

It's slow in the tropics right now. But there's still great discussions going on about potential upcoming patterns and any that may lead to CONUS landfalls during ASO. As such, a really good one is ongoing right this minute between Hazelton and Webb...

Irma was indeed a classic long-tracking CV hurricane, but even by comparison to the historical record, it took precedence. After TCG occurred 120 n mi WSW of São Vicente in the Cabo Verde Islands, it only took 48 hrs to become a major hurricane. But even with respect to its initial RI, perhaps what stands out most is its track. Irma gained a decent amount of lattitude due to a modest weakness in the eastward extension of the Bermuda-Azores SPH. The hurricane also weakened due to some interaction with SAL and cooler SSTs, undergoing some internal restructuring. However, Irma turned back WSW during its four-day trek across the MDR. Irma's position timed perfectly and, unfortunately, with respect to the Leewards, with restrengthening of the ridge and east-north-easterly flow of the 700-500 hPa steering layer. Above normal SSTs across the central and western MDR combined with exceedingly stacked/aligned atmospheric flow from the surface to 300 hPa level and favorable ULAC aloft enabled Irma to become, at that time, the most intense CV hurricane on record (surpassing Isabel) at 914 mb prior to slamming Barbuda and St. Martin. Beyond the more technical meteorological discussion, in general, when you have a CV hurricane losing latitude on its westward track through the MDR, it is bad news. Note: Irma first reached 20N at 40W. After its turn WSW, it didn't reach that lattitude again until 66W, north of Puerto Rico.

The Caribbean Low-level Jet (CLLJ) is usually why the Caribbean, from east to west, is a graveyard in June and July. Especially if there is a TUTT in place over top. The CLLJ tends to relax by mid-to-late August, if not earlier, as the SPH cells gain a bit of latitude. Generally, the westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high propagate east and west across the basin in a tug of war with exiting CONUS trough and jetstream interaction. But this year, with a +AMO in place and cool neutral ENSO, we may see the Bermuda cell linger into the ECONUS coastal region, even if the eastward Azores extension waxes and wanes with digging central Atlantic troughs.

Ongoing electrical infrastructure woes...

Latest ECMWF rainfall anomaly for ASO from Ben Noll's site. Interior CONUS is dry except for portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and very suggestive of cool neutral ENSO / La Niña pattern. Note the very active Atlantic and long-track setup for TCs. Potential drought conditons during the period for the Tennessee Valley without much progressive frontal precipitation. Hopefully, some weaker systems will bend around the ridge a curb drought conditions. Unfortunately, some of those systems will likely be hurricane strikes for the SE CONUS.

The latest rainfall anomaly by the ECMWF for ASO from Ben Noll's site. You'd not expect to see a more ominous pattern / setup for TCs being driven west. Ridging is in place, so frontal / trough induced precipitation in the CONUS interior is below normal. This not only smells of a cool neutral ENSO / La Niña, but also suggests long-tracking TCs with late recurves.