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About Windspeed

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  1. 00z GFS and ECMWF models back off much of anything in the medium-to-long range. Surface trough is too far SW and everything is either over C. America or kicked out into the E. Pac. Perhaps a weekend of slow model watching aside from any climatological favorability. I still think we get another storm out of the SW or W. Caribbean, but it may just be too long range for any ops to simulate with consistency in successive runs right now.
  2. Not to be outdone, but the ECMWF resolves a weak surface trough east of Nicaragua. Granted, it is not as aggressive as the GFS and is reluctant to close off anything beyond weak vorticity, but that isn't as significant in mid-to-long range versus the overall surface pattern. Eventually a tropical wave is going to move into this feature so I think the chances of something developing are decent and are likely to improve as modeling progresses this feature into the weekend. It will also help if the MJO phase can back off being in such a suppressed regime.
  3. Ophelia seemingly has redeveloped an eye feature via warm seclusion. The center is clear and is passing over Kerry Cliffs of Portmagee. Perhaps that is where the official landfall will be or very near it. Could also be Puffin Island just SW of there.
  4. Wow!
  5. Fastnet Lighthouse in Cork, Ireland past hour: Avg Wind: 59kts, Highest Gust: 76kts, Wind Dir:176 °(S), Gust Dir:178 °(S) Fastnet Lighthouse (@FastnetLHouse): https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse?s=09
  6. With Ophelia becoming post-tropical, ACE is now 223.2 (90.9). The Tropical Atlantic looks kind of ho-hum right now. The invest 92L has a nice MCS tonight but it's under a sheared environment. The NHC has a 30% chance of a hybrid or subtropical storm in few days after interaction with an advancing cold front. The tail end of that same frontal boundary is flaring up convection in the west-central GOM. Next weekend, modeling wants to break off energy and form a closed upper low near Texas or the northern Gulf coast. Long range GFS hints at something forming in the W. Caribbean. That setup could get something to move or develop up into the Gulf. But this stuff is way out in long range fantasy. Otherwise, the ITCZ and MDR look quiet, as does the W. Caribbean for now. After nine consecutive weeks of hyper activity, we may finally be getting a breather. Edit: Corrected total ACE to account for last advisory.
  7. Rain!!!!! Oh it sounds so nice... Looking forward to the cooler temperatures after the front pushes through as well. [emoji869]
  8. Ophelia has completed extra-tropical transition and as such, the NHC has issued their final advisory. For posterity...
  9. Ophelia's strong southerly surface flow combined with negligible precipitation over Portugal and NW Spain created a horrible high wind environment for flaring up and expanding ongoing wildfires. Pretty dramatic images coming out of that region of the Iberian Peninsula tonight. http://observador.pt/2017/10/16/as-fotografias-brutais-do-dia-com-mais-incendios-do-ano/
  10. Ophelia's broadening surface vortex is moving faster than the forecast points. This thing has gained forward motion and is screaming N faster than 35 kts. The mid-level vortex looks to have finally seperated as well. I think Ophelia will definitely be classified a PT Hurricane on the 11 PM AST. But just going on satellite plots from the past three hours, the LLC is going to landfall on the left of the forecast cone. Perhaps even left of guidance further up the western coast.
  11. Still classified a tropical hurricane per NHC with the presence of core convection over the surface vortex. Ophelia is transitioning rapidly though and probably will be a Post-Tropical Hurricane by 11 PM AST. We're a little more than 14-16 hrs from landfall based on forward motion. Looks like a pretty hard hit for southern Ireland, especially the SE coast. The Irish Sea may have the strongest winds as pressure gradient increases away from the center with strong southerly low-level flow at the surface. The Isle of Man will be just a bit breezy tomorrow. Probably not a good day for motorcycling. [emoji102] FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  12. As a purely tropical entity, yes. This is a classic example of baroclinic warm seclusion at work.