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About Windspeed

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    ♪♫ Bucketbot ♪♫

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
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    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. The worst conditions a very-lopsided asymmetric Nestor has to offer will be well east of the circulation. That appears as a very strong line of convection that will be moving into and over the Florida peninsula tomorrow. Radar show some very powerful cells lining up south to north. This activity is currently southwest of Tampa Bay moving in their direction:
  2. Oh boy... Look way out in lala fantasy land! But nice to see at least some modeling play at snow in the long range.
  3. NSFW for some explicit language, but this is very interesting to see a contemporary issues / political news show focusing on Barry Myers, AccuWeather and the NWS.
  4. A broad surface trough has developed east of Nicaragua near 80W in the western Caribbean. General easterly showers and thunderstorms are moving into Nicaragua along its western boundary, though the trough itself is moving very slowly if hardly a westward drift. This area may get tagged an invest tonight or tomorrow. The trough was modeled with considerable confidence in most of the main globals over the past four to five days, however, only the GFS has remained persistent to develop a tropical cyclone out of this feature. The NHC has not yet mentioned the area in their outlooks, but I would not be surprised if they begin mentioning it by tomorrow if a diurnal MCS goes up tonight out over the Caribbean or somewhere central to the trough axis. Confidence in TC genesis will probably remain low unless this gets better modeling support, or at least something begins resolving on the ECMWF as well. If a TC does develop, score this a win for the GFS though -- much like it did with Dorian back in late August out over the MDR.
  5. Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be. In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way.
  6. Radar confirms that Super Typhoon Hagibis did not actually make landfall on Anatahan Island. The southern periphery of the island got scraped by the core, but the worst conditions of the inner boundary of the eyewall missed just offshore. Again, good example how satellite imagery can be deceiving as it looked like a direct hit in the posts above. Angle of sensor, parallax and lat/long postion of eye is important.
  7. Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era.
  8. Yes, it was inhabited prior to volcanic unrest. The caldera has been active in recent times with a VEI-4 eruption in 2003. Anatahan is a desolate place that nobody has returned to. I should also say that based on angle of satellite and parallax, it may look like a landfall, but we'll need to confirm it with the radar beam out of the N. Marianas. The base of the tiny 3nm wide vortex may actually be missing south of Anatahan though it looks like a direct hit on the island. Edit: Sorry for edits, Tapatalk is being annoying and lagging posts atm.
  9. Well-formed small vortex in the right place at the right time. Nearly all requirements for RI and MPI met at once. Strong banding around such a small vortex will eventually halt this round but there will likely be reintensification after ERC with a larger eye. Having said that, based on sat estimates, peak intensity has been achieved. At this time there isn't much off structurally in comparison to Patricia or Wilma. The eye is doing a trochoidal wobble that may slingshot it right over the island -- a possible sub 900 hPa hit of you've ever seen one.
  10. If there is a silver lining, it's that due to the low soil moisture content and dry airmass in place, humidity has been low in the upper Tennessee Valley. So it's been a dry heat for us. The nights have been very comfortable. Now, of course, for the Piedmont, coastal plain/fall line and areas east and south I am sure it's been miserable. That's not much of a silver lining because obviously we're in a drought. Fortunately we're well past growing season for most crops. My lawn is basically dead and brown. Have not bothered mowing in three weeks. Not even weeds are having any of this...