Windspeed

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About Windspeed

  • Rank
    ♪♫ Bucketbot ♪♫

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. Not to focus on / give attention to any one particular met, but since I shared a tweet from Webb earlier and he seems to still be dialed in on the evolution of the upcoming pattern and potential storm tracks, I'll share this as well.. If anyone objects please don't hesitate to speak up.
  2. Fri 00z ECMWF backed off totals several inches from last night's / Thur 00z op. Maybe .5 to 1.5 inches for most areas up Holston Valley and KTRI. KTYS might get a light dusting. Only significant totals are for some of the higher elevations of SWVA across the highest ridges of Clinch and Walker mountains but that's maxing out around 3 inches so nothing too exciting there. Perhaps there will be another swing in outputs but this just look like the bulk of moisture is going to stay south of the region in time for the cold to play ball. What overriding moisture is remaining will be nosed off until the cold can dam against the Apps. Would need a significant shift in the low and better timing with the cold. Hard to bank on that. If the cold pattern / reinforcement can stay in place perhaps some action around Thanksgiving?
  3. The 00z ECMWF output 1-3 inches across upper East Tennessee to 4-5 inches across the higher elevations of southwest VA is certainly eye-opening. More of a light dusting south of 40. 1-2 for KTYS and perhaps 2-3 for KTRI? It's still way early. My pessimism aside, these outputs may even go up today, tomorrow, perhaps even into the weekend, but I'm not buying into even shallow totals until there is a significant increase. Even then it will probably still be at most 1-2 inches for KTRI and 2-4 for higher elevations to the west and northwest. But any snow is cool for mid-November. So there's some optimism.
  4. Halong's development and structure very reminiscent of Mikael in the GOM last year. Probably SS Cat 5 right now. ADT up to 7.3 / 150 kts now. This beast is cranking...
  5. Increasingly warm core now and has eye-like feature. This should be upgraded to a named storm at least.
  6. Since we now have a TC showing up within modeling, the moisture stream is shifting east into the Tennessee Valley. There will still be significant moisture stream up into the Mississippi Valley in combo with the frontal boundary, so the flood threat is still possible there. However, with a well-developed surface low such as TC, the flooding threat may shift east into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. This is a late development that needs to be watched. Of course many areas in the Southeast still need the rain.
  7. To say it's been rare to see GOM development this late in October would be an understatement. The last purely GOM system to become a TC this late in the calender year was Juan in 1985: The reasons meteorologically-speaking are fairly straight forward. Early October is very different than late October. Strong frontal boundaries and the jet stream have typically overtaken and suppressed favorable atmospheric dynamics for cyclogenesis by this point.
  8. This is a good thing as any slower setup would nearly guarantee a north gulf coast hurricane. As it stands, this may still end up making landfall as a "strong" tropical storm. Which again, the flooding potential is the real threat here during frontal merger up the Mississippi Valley.
  9. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche has nearly closed off a low-level vortex. TD is very close to being classified and this likely becomes a tropical storm. Conditions are favorable in the short term for intensification, however, as the system moves NNW, it will probably encounter less favorable conditions due to frontal interaction. For any significant strengthening, it will need to get its act together fast. That is possible though as it is currently under decent atmospheric conditions and upper level divergence. This system is expected to bring significant flooding into the Mississippi Valley this weekend as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough and merges into a frontal boundary.
  10. The worst conditions a very-lopsided asymmetric Nestor has to offer will be well east of the circulation. That appears as a very strong line of convection that will be moving into and over the Florida peninsula tomorrow. Radar show some very powerful cells lining up south to north. This activity is currently southwest of Tampa Bay moving in their direction: