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Windspeed

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About Windspeed

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    ♪♫ Bucketbot ♪♫

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
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    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
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    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Continuing to improve. Deep convection and hot towers with rapid lighting detection in the past hour right over the center. Vortex should take off now with pressure drop. Core formation should be underway.
  2. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Being a small system, it probably does have a rough go in a few days. However, in the short term, it still has a good deal of ocean to cross and improving favorability for intensification prior to reaching the islands. Again, it only takes this pulsing convection to deepen the vortex and low enough and it will begin increasing its own surface convergence. It looks like there is a nice mcs and cdo perhaps starting for form right over the vortex during the past several hours.
  3. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

  4. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Even though convection is still sparsely distributed, the recent microwave scan posted above by Papin was very revealing. Following that scan, even looking at a simple AVN IR image, you can clearly make out the compact vortex with a ring of cooler cloudtops with several strong cells. Sure, just focusing on the spread of cold cloudtops / deep convection doesn't tell the complete tale. You could say this still looks like crap. But it is still near the organizing / formative stages. Already having a symmetrical structure will be important if deeper convection can and does take off in the next 12 hours. This could ramp up intensity rather quickly.
  5. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    The most interesting feature to me isn't so much mid level ridging completely breaking down. That will still be in place to keep the wnw heading. However, after three days, a 400-300 mb level upper low/trough or TUTT north of the Antilles is being modeled. Positioning of Dorian when that forms is most critical as a strong shear axis will either impede Dorian negatively or create strong ventilation to the north based on proximity. Though difficult to forecast that precisely looking this far in advance.
  6. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    500 mb ridging will remain strong enough to get Dorian into the eastern Caribbean and Antilles on a WNW heading regardless of TC intensity. Afterwards, western Atlantic ridging may be weaker allowing for a more NW to northern track. But Dorian may encounter Hispaniola as well. It's really too early to know or even guess how that will play out. That breakdown is also enough days out in modeling that it may not even occur.
  7. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Dorian has a small area of concentrated convection around a small vortex. It already has curved banding near the center, even if the cloudtops aren't all that impressive yet. There is just enough convective bursting and cells to keep assisting the vortex however with it being so small. Keep in mind, that is delicate and easterlies could interfere pretty easily with such a small system. But the easterlies are forecast to continue relaxing. Therefore if the small vortex has a persistent MCS develop over the core, we might get to see a rarer microcane form prior to interaction with the Lesser Antilles. Of course with time the system would grow larger and evolve out of microcane size to something more typical, especially after an ERC or two. Dry air could also play factor in keeping the system compact in the short-to-midterm. With relaxing easterly shear and a decent upper ridge for the next 3 days, dry air intrusion is the only limiting factor. But it is a big factor.
  8. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Dorian

  9. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Up to 70% probs. Per evening visible and shortwave, the cyclonic turning looks even more pronounced than earlier today. No doubt that the axis has indeed closed. However, that does not mean we have a confined low level vort. Mid level circulation, certainly, and even a broad low level cutoff, albeit weak. But the invest needs some robust convection. Like I said in an earlier thread, a good period of convection/MCS right over the cutoff, this thing increases vorticity and should be a go for cyclogenesis and classification.
  10. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    If this does become a TS, score one for the GFS op. The Euro op missed on this pretty hard. Sure, it continuously resolves the disturbance but hasn't even flirted with sub 1000 mb yet. The GFS has been on the feature for days and has had a number of runs at moderate TS strength. If this does develop, it will probably impact the islands. Late term there will be an upper pv that should pull whatever remains into the Bahamas and near Fl / SE coast.
  11. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Yeah I was referring to ASCAT this morning. Still, even with respect to that most recent successful pass, the overall circulation still looks rather weak. Obviously directional winds on the N-NW side are going to be stronger due to the folding of the axis and easterlies. If convection can ramp up again this evening, we may have an interesting development. Still expect odds to go up at 2 PM.
  12. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Invest 99L east of the Lesser Antilles is looking very suspicious that it is trying to cutoff the wave axis in the low levels. It clearly has cyclonic turning in mid levels evident on visible. Convection keeps pivoting west and wsw of the axis however. If mid level flow can relax just a bit more and the disturbance can sustain or, even better, an MCS develop at the low level cutoff, we may have a a classified storm in the MDR. Perhaps the NHC did not have a great look at the feature this morning. ASCAT missed. But I figure the odds will increase to moderate on the 2PM AST 5-day outlook besides.
  13. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores. 1. Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit development during that time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central Florida through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves generally westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven
  14. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Westerly windshear has dramatically decreased across the Caribbean and much of the MDR below 20-25° latitude. Additionally there are signs of backing Azores ridging, which should continue to relax easterlies somewhat over the next week. Robust waves and inverted troughs are exiting Africa during this time. Though the globals are reluctant to latch onto anything yet aside from occasional blurps out of the GFS, I expect a shift towards favorable atmospheric conditions and a decrease in subsidence going into early September. Some of these waves should be strong enough to break off the suppressed ITCZ and amp up moisture feed, convergence and lift across the lower central development region. Essentially, aside from obvious climatological cues, I don't expect things to be quiet much longer.
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