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About Windspeed

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    ♪♫ Buckethead ♪♫

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. Virac also has a sizable population around 73k. Again, not the 250k with a much larger and denser region of inhabitants, but 73k is still a good size city. So I wasn't trying to downplay impact. That being said, hopefully the eye misses them to the north or they at least have offshore flow to avoid surge. Edit: Actually I feel foolish. The entire island has about 250k inhabitants. That is actually pretty sizeable for a small region. Hate to see a city get in an eyewall such as Goni's, but obviously much of the island will regardless and a lot of people are about to have a terrifying experience. Apologies for the geography mistake there. I am getting rusty. Edit: Ugh...This current motion may actually land Goni's eye smack over Virac as well. Well so much for optimism.
  2. Yeah this is approaching landfall. Likely to tie Haiyan and Meranti as the most intense landfalling cyclones on record. Obviously, again, no recon. Just ADT which supports 170 kts / 195 mph sustained. I'd argue Haiyan was probably stronger at landfall than Goni will be or what Meranti likely was at its landfall, but it's just speculation. Fortunately it's not hitting a greater populated region like when Haiyan struck Tacloban for the intial intense point of landfall.
  3. We'll have to see what the 12z ECMWF does. 0z continued wanting to drive a weaker Eta through Nicaragua / Honduras into the EPAC. The 12z GFS is also weak forming an almost gyre-like low that stalls, gets captured by trough and lifts towards the EGOM while intensifying into a formidable hurricane. I have problems with both solutions. It looks like Eta is going to intensify way ahead of modeling. If it becomes a hurricane, much more a strong hurricane by the time it reaches 80°W longitude, the mid-level flow might allow it to miss the Honduras / Nicaraguan coast entirely. I think this either slams the Yucatán as a major hurricane with the ECMWF ridge or stalls and eventually turns right into the GFS westerlies and Florida. If it were weaker it could stall over central America and gyre out with the lower level flow. But mid-level flow is going to probably keep a stronger system north of Honduras.
  4. Weakening to a Cat 4 prior to landfall is looking unlikely now. Cloudtops are cooling and the eye is warming again. Old cloud fill/remnants of the old eye are dissipating as Goni bears down on the coast.
  5. First recon isn't until 1800z tomorrow. I'd say by the time they get there, this is going to be a strong TS based on the rate of organization currently underway. This already looks like a TD. NHC could even skip TD and go straight to TS if we had a little better RS data to analyze. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 311600 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EDT SAT 31 OCTOBER 2020 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020 TCPOD NUMBER.....20-158 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71 A. 01/1800Z A. 02/0530Z B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0229A CYCLONE C. 01/1500Z C. 02/0145Z D. 15.6N 78.0W D. 15.8N 80.0W E. 01/17300Z TO 01/2100Z E. 02/0515Z TO 02/0830Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 A. 02/1130Z B. AFXXX 0329A CYCLONE C. 02/0800Z D. 15.7N 81.0W E. 02/1115Z TO 02/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN
  6. There now looks to be a closed surface vortex under that mid-level canopy. Clear low-level cumulus are streaking ESE and eastward now within the cloud field, a sign low-level westerlies are increasing. Still no good recent ASCAT. We'll see if we get a better one this afternoon, but a spade is a spade.
  7. MW pass is about 4 hrs old...
  8. No reconnaissance flights until tomorrow so we'll have to make due with visible satellite evidence and ASCAT today. Perhaps a ship report or two. All station bouys in this region of the Caribbean for air pressure and winds are not currently operational.
  9. Banding on the south side of evident mid-level cyclonic rotation. Still no certainty of a vortex down at the surface but with that strong convective band aligned west to east and curving into the MCS, I have seen far worse classified a Tropical Depression. Getting a little impatient. We do not have any recon flight plans yet. [emoji848]
  10. There's no way this isn't sub 890 mb... The inner eyewall has continued to contract yet intensify despite the intensifying outer eyewall. This is a classic Gilbert '88 or Tip '79 looking concentric eyewall monster.
  11. Need recon. This convection looks like it is encompassing a very small surface vortex. Same general latitude as was suspect earlier prior to waning. Don't know if it will be enough to garner TD status by 11PM ADT, but the disturbance continues to organize.