Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

1 Follower

About Windspeed

  • Rank
    ♪♫ Bucketbot ♪♫

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

Recent Profile Visitors

2,152 profile views
  1. Windspeed

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    I-81 corridor between Bristol and Abingdon was hit pretty hard tonight. Localized 2-3 inches within an hour caused some problems for Lee Hwy, King Mill Pike, Old Jonesboro Rd, Reedy Creek Rd and Wyndale Rd with reports of flooding.
  2. Windspeed

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Positioning of the Azores High and the easterly jet is absolutely in no way conducive for healthy waves and the ITCZ much less tropical cyclone development right now. Anything that could or would consolidate in the MDR is only going to have gaps of very limited developmental time surrounded by hostile atmospheric conditions. As things are going, we're likely going to be waiting until mid-late September, perhaps even early October, for any substantial activity originating from the MDR this season. However, we still may have opportunities for development near the Bahamas, the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with possible interactions of hanging stationary frontal boundaries and weak-to-moderate tropical waves. That would be an issue of timing though. Remember, it only takes one surface low in the right position to make for a memorable event. But at least for now or until a significant pattern shift, I'm not very keen on significant MDR development in 2018 with the current pattern that is in place.
  3. Windspeed

    2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

    Hector is attaining some characteristics of an annular hurricane. Though it still has a relatively small or modest clear eye, it has lost most of its banding features outside its main ring of convection. Annular TCs can be fairly resilient and long-lasting major hurricanes, even thriving in 26-27°C SSTs and surrounding dry/stable airmasses, as long as the system remains in light/negligible windshear and a region of cooler than average upper tropospheric conditions. Will be interesting to see how long Hector can maintain major hurricane status as it passes by just south of The Big Island of Hawaii.
  4. Windspeed

    2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

    Today's 12z ECMWF is building a huge dominate central Pacific high and driving Hector all the way into the WPAC now. My previous post may very well end up a non-issue. GFS still breaks down the ridge, but only after Hector misses Hawaii to the SW. Still early though.
  5. Windspeed

    2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

    In regards to Hurricane Hector and any potential threat to Hawaii, the GFS has trended south over the past few runs and is now more in line with the ECMWF for Hector's 5-7 day track. However, the Euro is considerably slower with track. Though obviously too early for track certainty at this range, there should be a brief weakness in the central Pacific ridge that will allow a more WNW and even NW component of motion before Hector reaches the longitude of Cape Kumukah and before the ridge is shown building back. This could very well end up being a very close call, if not outright landfall, and definitely something to watch for with respect to The Big Island of Hawaii, especially considering the ongoing relief efforts in the lower Puna/Kapoho area and the ongoing eruption in the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano. There are still many displaced residents living in temporary shelters awaiting a more long-term solution beyond just the horrible inconvenience of dealing with a landfalling hurricane. Hopefully the core will miss to the south but I'd feel a little uneasy being that close on the north edge of track guidance in early modeling at that range. As for intensity, though OHC/TCHP and the 26° isotherm isn't that deep around the islands, the near-surface temperatures are warm enough to support a steadily moving hurricane at Category 2 intensity if atmospheric conditions are favorable and shear is low. SSTs are running between 26-27° at the surface and above 27° just south of the Big Island. As is typical with Hawaiian TCs, especially hurricanes, the more southerly the track, the better the potential for a stronger system; furthermore, we don't generally see the stronger hurricane threats outside of El Niño.
  6. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    The window for Chris to reach MH status has closed. For a while yesterday, I was convinced it would make it. Still, a very nice intensification phase Monday evening through Tuesday. A solid Category 2 isn't too shabby considering the region of development in July. As for impacts, it will be interesting to see how the ET transition completes and what (if any) effects for portions of Nova Scotia and New Foundland. Based on track and modeling, Chris may miss NS altogether and only impact NF from the weaker NW side of circulation. I certainly don't think this will be the worst they've seen recently.
  7. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    Well I can't say I'm surprised. Chris looks to be undergoing strong intensification now with plenty of time remaining before the environment becomes hostile. Category 3 seems almost a certainty at this point by perhaps midday Wednesday.
  8. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    This was pretty much expected through current time. Shear has relaxed. Should be less mid-level stable air getting forced into what appears to be a developing core. This evening through tomorrow should be good steady identification, perhaps even a burst of significant intensification on Tuesday. I don't know if this will ever have the ingredients to experience RI though. But tomorrow may very well surprise once the SW steering flow begins to develop. Upwelling isn't so much of an issue simply due to the fact that the 26° isotherm is plenty deep enough at that location, enhanced by the Gulf Stream, and the upper atmosphere is a bit cooler than a typical tropical environment setup to help with tropospheric instability and convection. Also there should be some baroclinic support as the mid-level trough digs in on Wed. Though how much is a question. I suspect the window will close rather quickly on Wed though with increasing shear and colder SSTs. So the next 36-48 hrs is feast and afterwards, famine.
  9. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    000 WTNT43 KNHC 092052 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 Satellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data this afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has improved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened some. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR surface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected. However, by 36 hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S. Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5 as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45 percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new 15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by 48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE, which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.2N 74.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 34.0N 71.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.1N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 42.2N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 48.3N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 52.0N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
  10. Windspeed

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Do you think we'll see any flirting with thermometer records for portions of the eastern Valley this weekend?
  11. NOAA's older Satellite Products and Services Division (SSD) NESDIS website is being phased out perhaps? This includes their Tropical Floaters page. At any rate, they have a new site here for GOES 16 products. Granted, I use a lot of different satellite products from a plethora of sites. Obviously, the newer high resolution products have much better bands, micrometer enhancements and filters. WITH THAT BEING SAID, I am bummed the old Tropical Floaters page is no longer supported for the numero uno reason that I miss my bloody NHC Aviation Color Enhancement for IR imagery. I cannot seem to find any other products or site that replicates this exact color spread for GOES-16. Though, again, I use all the new stuff, the spread of AVN is what my mind has recognized for 20 years of meticulous observing of cloudtop characteristics. I always want to compare and contrast in it for historical imagery and realtime changes. Everything else just feels off. Have I overlooked a site? If not, does anyone have any suggestions? At this time, SSD still has products up for HIMAWARI satellite imagery over the Eastern hemisphere at least. I suppose I could annoy NESDIS until they add classic AVN as a filter on the new site to go along with all those new enhancements. For anyone lost on what I am referring to, this is the classic Aviation Color Enhancement for coldness of cloudtops that was available through NHC/SSD since the 90s. Yes, I realize there are "cleaner" enhancements for micrometer bands now but this is still too important not to have available simply due to historical comparisons:
  12. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    A good reason we should never rely on any NAM products. Not even going to bother mentioning its resolving of Chris. However, please ignore the mesoscale NAM products especially. Actually, all of NAM is just hot garbage when it comes to TC intensity and tracks as they don't handle strong warm cores very well. It’s not a TC model really isn't the best excuse but whether the blame is on how NCEP designed its downstream handling of feedback or pollution, beyond just poor initialization, its products depicting TCs always mauls itself with convective feedback of strong warm cores. Simply put, though you should never trust any single model product for TCs, forget the NAM.
  13. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    Yes, that was sloppy typing. Already corrected. And ADT noted.
  14. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    Honestly surprised at that 1002mb reading. That is a fairly steep drop from the next closest bouy (1016mb), which also isn't that much further away from the previous center fix. The LLC may be relocating again or is being pulled under the MLC in the variable surface flow. If that is the case, this could be an interesting night of intensification ahead.
  15. Windspeed

    Tropical Storm Chris

    MH status is certainly possible. The ESE jog/relocation this morning certainly helps in the short term even with slow development. Places the LLC just enough SE from the stronger shear axis so it isn't as tilted for the MLC. With persistent convection over night into Monday nearto the LLC, this just gives it a head start when the environment becomes more favorable by Monday evening. I'm starting to lean more in favor of Chris reaching Cat 3 intensity than it merely maxing out as a Category 1. But Cat 2 is still the most likely for now. As always, intensity forecasts are difficult when you only have a 48-72 hr window and small geographic location for significant intensification. Positioning is critical. But if the core is consolidated and an eyewall is trying to form during the day on Monday, there's no reason it can't milk the environment for all it's worth on Tuesday and Wednesday as it lifts northeast. The ECMWF OP is also eye-opening (excuse the pun) and shows a very favorable environment between 48 and 96 hrs for a NE moving storm along and across the Gulf Stream.