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About Windspeed

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. The high-rise structures are built to withstand some pretty strong EQs. Acapulco exists on a subduction zone prone to violent quakes. Of course, that doesn't mean the guts of floors didn't have cheaper materials. But I'd imagine some of these more expensive high-rises that got gutted weren't cheap. The rich and famous like their Acapulco.
  2. The eye fill was right at landfall. Yes, you have to take into account parallax. You also have to attribute eyefill most likely to the rugged terrain that immediately began disrupting the core at landfall. But as they say, too little too late. No doubt it was a Cat 5 landfall to me.
  3. Perhaps for something right on the immediate waterfront in the bay due to wave action on top of some surge. But the water is rather deep for fetch versus abrupt elevation change. Everything away from the immediate waterfront is above 6 ft in much of Acapulco. Nobody should be on the harbour walls unless they're being careless. Now that being said, the flat estuaries around the airport and lagoons both east and west of Acapulco would be far more susceptible to surge. But again, this is a very small hurricane, despite its intensity. Wind and run-off are my greatest concerns for the greater populace and Otis' core.
  4. I'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter.
  5. Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind.
  6. Helpful post regarding surge prone areas via Jeff Masters:
  7. I think we're about to get some bad news. Trichoidal wobbles aside, it looks like Otis is going to turn too late to miss Acapulco proper. Even still, urban coastal communities extend east and west along the coastline. The core of Otis may move right over some densely populated areas.
  8. Wow... There's not really much to add here other than Otis has a very small core. The worst wind damage should be confined to a small area, but it may be pretty bad. The flooding is going to be widespread with the slow motion. I'm still hoping for the eyewall to begin breaking down and weakening some prior to landfall since it is moving slow versus faster motion and carrying momentum. Perhaps some terrain influences.
  9. ACE has now surpassed 140 thanks to Hurricane Tammy's persistence. Barring some ridiculous unforseen WCARIB activity during the remaining weeks of the season, I think we're nearing the close. Consider that last year's total ACE didn't even surpass 100, despite one of the costliest hurricanes in American history. Yet, yadda yadda, it only takes one. It's still one of the weirdest El Niño years in my lifetime, but thanks to a strong +AMO, this was a very active season. I must add that having a strong El Niño was a blessing. Despite the overall activity, quite a bulky pattern of shear managed to keep many of our MDR systems in check. And virtually nothing strong got within a whiff of the SE CONUS, beyond the homegrown WCARIB/GOM major hurricane Idalia. Imagine long-trackers without the shear? Could have been another 2017.
  10. Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast.
  11. Otis is looking rather mean at present..
  12. Good lord, so much activity going on world-wide (despite the usual suspect WPAC), I can't keep up. Of course, work...
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