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About Windspeed

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. The 18z GFS and HAFS-B globalnest have very robust cyclonic signatures with the strong MCS about to advance off Africa over the next few days. Monsoonal flow has become robust into the Cabo Verdes. Latitude for wave break and axis will still be critical for downstream development however as SSTs are still quite marginal due west of the islands. A surface trough more SSW of CV would obviously increase potential, as 27°C+ SSTs better support thermodynamics needed for cyclogenesis.
  2. Well anytime both the ECMWF and GFS ops are sniffing development out of the MDR, take note. But this is the midrange middle August, therefore climatologically time for the switch to flip on. There are some decent AEWs that will be rolling off over the next week and the WAM flow looks to extend and tug on the ITCZ to 40W during that time. Enjoy the quiet, doesn't look like it's going to last much longer.
  3. The question posed was to explain the lack of Cat 5 landfalls in Texas. I think it's a combination of factors, some just luck/chance, some geography. You mentioned Katrina and Rita. Those were Cat 5s that would eventually make landfall as 3s, but not in Texas. Harvey and the 1900 Galveston Hurricane are most likely the most powerful landfalls in Texas within record-keeping range. Hurricane Beulah in 1967 attained Category 5 status and would eventually make landfall as a 3 in Texas. Allen reached 5 multiple times but only made landfall as a 3 near Brownsville as well. Let us not forget that Florida generally wins the Category 5 lottery for a reason. It is 1) a peninsula surrounded by Gulf Stream Loop & Current and 2) located within a higher frequency of high-end 'cane paths due to trade winds. But the idea here is that it would be unwise to assume hurricanes do not and will not strike Texas at Category 5 intensity. Edit: Should have mentioned Carla '61 along with Harvey and the Galveston 1900 above. Also a correction: though the point of landfall was recorded in extreme SW Louisiana, Rita's weaker western eyewall was across the border in Texas. So it's a little cheap on my part to not consider Rita a Texas 'cane.
  4. Geography does play a major role. Most TCs that strike Texas develop out of the WCARIB and must deal with land interaction of the Yucatán. This limits organizational/developmental time before RI can top out maximum potential energy. I am sure VWS relationship with dry continental airmass does play a role on occasion. However, typically westward vector is supported by easterly mid-level steering flow across the GOM. That should supercede dry airmass ever so often with these TCs. There have been some close calls however in documented history and almost certainly there have been many 155+ mph landfalls pre-colonialization. I'd wager Harvey would have attained Category 5 had it had more time over the GOM. Its structure was absurd well into post-landfall. The shallow shelf is sometimes plenty deep enough with 28°+C SSTs to support a Category 5 that is moving at a favorable rate of motion. To the point, though we have not seen a Cat 5 strike Texas, it will eventually happen again whether we as humans are still around to witness it.
  5. Convection is waning where the more vigorous MLC was located earlier. That may delay progress a bit more in line with modeling. We'll see where it's at during the diurnal maximum tonight. Convection may redevelop.
  6. Felicia at 18z on Tuesday per HWRF. I suspect it will weaken even faster than the HWRF is modeling due to very dry stable airmass being advected into the core with the increasing southwesterly VWS.
  7. Felicia indeed still looks impressive. Some WSW VWS should begin increasing over the next 24-36 hrs. This combined with a subtle decrease in thermodynamic support should bring on a gradual weakening into abrupt faster weakening into Tuesday. The HWRF shows a period of rapid weakening on Tuesday as the MLC gets decoupled.
  8. No. There is certainly nothing official with regards to forecast discussion or analysis that suggests this is a Category 5. TAFB Dvorak analysis hit T6.5/127 kts per discussion and ADT numbers are about 10 kts lower. Felicia has already maxed out for an annular-type TC within the current thermodynamic environment. It would need to drop a bit more latitude and reach warmer SSTs to get any stronger. Even with cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, Felicia's core is riding a 26.5 to 27°C isotherm. Its eyewall has probably maxed out potential intensity at its current westward vector of motion.
  9. 1) Nowhere will you ever find data to support classification or naming of an ULL. The sarcasm here is noted, but out of bounds. As far as areas of interest, there are plenty of examples of mid-level systems and cold core upper troughs transitioning to warm core systems. But that is for another discussion. 2) Satellite technology and ever increasing shipping traffic now enable us to recognize and discern warm core and assymetric warm core cyclones that warrant more subtropical classifications than in years past. There is no agenda here except to supercede and fulfill a critical obligation by the TAFB division of the National OCEANIC and Atmospheric Agency. That role is to protect life and property for maritime shipping interests, not just the inhabitants of coastlines. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified. This is a scientific agency, there are rules, but technology and subsequently guidlines evolve over time. 3) Going to nip this in the bud right here. Any more talk of an agency misleading or lying to fit a political agenda, much less climate change, will be removed. This is not the thread for such discussion.
  10. Already at the "F" named storm and we didn't even make a thread. We have not seen anything crazy at this point, but it's not exactly been quiet either. Felicia is intensifying and expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow. No threat to land. I am sure someone will want to post "bye" when it dissipates over cooler surface waters next week.
  11. There's a good discussion ongoing about 2021 following suite with 2020, '18, '16, that late September through October will experience peak activity versus a traditional climo-favored late August to mid September peak. This would not surprise me in the least. Especially if there is robust MDR warming in September versus typical late July-August and heft poleward motion of the ITCZ. A slightly below average MDR SST anomaly is currently in place. That may be the only other negative factor against early CV August activity beyond PVs and SAL. Though we are still weeks away and slightly below mean SST data sets can reverse pretty quickly given a few weeks of decreased low level easterlies.
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