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About Windspeed

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. It is tighter and more consolidated than a trough. That's a sharp wind shift and there is a circulation there, it's just weak. The promixity to the SA coastline may inhibit it from organizing into a TC however.
  2. This thing is pulling a Bonnie. It did not consolidate at a high enough latitude as I thought it would. Therefore unless the axis lifts/folds north, land interaction with SA will keep it in check until it clears Colombia. May still become a hurricane / develop rapidly then, but significantly limits developmental time.
  3. Trough interaction is still very difficult to forecast and model. That being said, there were some strong TC model runs. But overall, it's still a science that still cannot be considered a mature discipline. Much research is still in its infancy.
  4. We are scheduled for recon this afternoon. If something is organizing under the convective canopy, we'll know then. There is presently good low-level convergence into that suspicious area of the northern dense blob. The old vort has been kicked out to the NW.
  5. Despite the drop in %/color code for TCG potential, I'm sticking to favoring development of 91L sooner than later. Current convective activity may look anemic, however, these semi-permanent clusters of storms will aid in organizing a low level vorticity maximum if they can persist beyond diurnal maximum and into the day tomorrow. Sure, global op modeling remains meh, but visually 91L remains a vigorous wave with turning, albeit weak, that appears to have the ingredients for genesis. I still favor this becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean that will threaten CA.
  6. Very evident mid-level rotation. There does appear to be low-level westerlies on the southside of the wave axis. Really nice moist envelope. Despite lack of early enthusiastic modeling, I'm still on the TCG train. Just needs to fire and sustain convection near the nascent center. The positioning of the axis folding is far enough south of the ULL/upper trough to avoid hinderance as far as strong shear. There may still be shear in the eastern Caribbean for a short window to deal with, but I really like this system to take off in the short term, then perhaps a steady state until the TC gets south of the Greater Antilles. Hopefully we'll get a recon flight out there in the next day or so.
  7. Carribean runner. I actually like development of this system and a hurricane landfall somewhere from the Rivera Maya, Yucatan, down to Nicaragua. Outflow looks really great. There will be some enhancement by an ULL to the north that may aid TCG. But then may impart a window of shear. By the time the system is south of the DR, however, conditions will support a strong hurricane all the way into CA.
  8. The pattern flipped late, but it flipped. We may be facing an active October. We aren't going to reach hyperactive for the season, but active/above normal is looking like a lock. We are now in a +AMO setup. If this had occurred in August as was previously forecasted by seasonal outlooks, the year probably would have ended up hyperactive. Wave breaking issues aside, this is a classic look...
  9. This is getting bantery but I do not think category dictates the financial restitution in any given legislative or emergency coordinated relief and assistance. A distaster is a disaster mitigated by the severness of the aftermath.
  10. Unfortunately, as has been reiterated time and time again, it only takes one to make a season memorable and historic, regardless of overall activity. [emoji17]
  11. Down shear quadrant. It won't matter when the eastern eyewall starts making landfall however. Frictional convergence will most likely enhance and light that quadrant up like Time Square on New Year's Eve.
  12. Unreal... Eye should continue to clear with such strong subsidence. Did not expect the eyewall to get so intense this morning. GLM flashes are booming with the hot tower. Horrible timing is an understatement.
  13. RE: An intensifying hurricane into landfall...
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