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About Windspeed

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    ♪♫ Bucketbot ♪♫

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    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
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    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. SS Edmund Fitzgerald bombogenesis material there.
  2. How rapidly will 93L/potential Cristobal organize and intensify out over the BOC? As stated above, formation of a surface vort and its coupling to the MLC further north might buy more time for significant intensification -- which could allow the TC to stall, loop and detach from the overall flow around the CAG. The TC would then become susceptible to feel the weakness in the 500 hpa CONUS heights later in the week. However, a weaker system might fail to detach, ending back over Mexico (12z GFS & ECMWF). Interestingly, another secondary TC develops out of the eastern appendage of the CAG with interaction of WCARIB surface trough/wave that moves over the Yucatan on the ECMWF, which could hypothetically become Dolly. Too much uncertainty without knowing when and where our initial surface vort forms with 93L, and potential strength.
  3. Might the African wavetrain get an early start this year?
  4. Based on current location and motion of Amanda's old mid-level vort, now 93L, the system may now exit further north off of the western shoreline of the Yucatan and not linger as long near or over the southern BOC shoreline. This may allow a future surface vort to form further away from the coastline and have an even longer period of time to organize versus previous ICON modeling, which was actually one of the more aggressive globals for intensification.
  5. SSTs along the NW GOM are still relatively minimal 26-27°C to support an intense TC. However, if Amanda or newly named system's location is timed just right, a more favorable divergent upper pattern could be in place as it approaches landfall. Also SSTs may warm to 28°C by next weekend if cloud coverage/storminess clears out for the most part. We'll have to wait a few more days to see how the forecast ahead of any potential TC will be influenced by the synoptic and oceanic environment.
  6. I hate to April 27th a meteorological topic for hyperbole, but many of the characteristics of 2005 are coming into play with the late pattern swings here. That year saw a strong -NAO flip postive with a favorable AMO and ENSO for a hyperactive Atlantic. There are other variables, of course, not excluding WAM (West African Monsoon) and ITCZ suppression/placement along the surface wave-breaking entrance into the MDR and SAL. But with a +AMO and +NAO, a late shift like we saw in June that year gave us some incredible early fireworks out of the MDR as well. This year is going to be incredibly interesting to watch unfold.
  7. That is NOAA though. Though SSTs may lag on rapid warmth due to the late swings in pattern, negative to positive NAO and positive AMO, -ENSO, etc., June looks amplified for strong favorable environmental gains to support an active TC setup in the western ATL basin by July. Might even see some W Caribbean / Gulf development into early June. Looks like an active to hyperactive season.
  8. Amphan is likely a Cat 5 Saffir-Simpson right now. But it has a very tiny core. Outer banding is also clearly intensifying and consolidating a circular structure on MW. An ERC within 24 hrs will be underway. The real question is what happens after that ERC for the low-delta and coastal plain. Will a larger eyewall begin intensification prior to landfall or will Amphan struggle through landfall? Varying landfall intensities with a larger eyewall could be mitigatable or catastrophic event for Bangladesh. All we can so at this point is wait and see how Amphan morphs and evolves.
  9. It's May. Fun to track. Probably will cause some coastal winds and flooding per typical coastal low, but Arthur does looks anemic. We'll see if any convective forcing could tighten up its gradient tonight, but that's probably asking a bit much at this point. I think coastal Carolinians will handle poor Arthur without much of a hiccup.
  10. Windspeed


    Yeah, also a +AMO. If the pattern does flip late and a +NAO roars into June and July, there's going to be some serious fireworks in the tropics w/ southerly hot & muggy flow across the greater Tennessee Valley and Southeast CONUS. Essentially successive rinse & repeat days until soil moisture begins to decline by August. A lot of variety isolated afternoon thunderstorms giving way to greater and greater spreads between days with precipitation. So still thinking Aug.-Oct. 2020 will lean dry barring a land-falling TC making its way across the region.