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Windspeed

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About Windspeed

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTRI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tri-Cities, TN/VA
  • Interests
    Geography, Climate and Geoarchaeology.

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  1. From Ben Noll's site. Long range ECMWF-UKMET superblend indicative of La Niña and AMO+ pattern taking hold by ASO. If this unfolds, expect a dry late summer pattern into autumn. Caveat being any landfalling tropical systems moving inland over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley regions to break potential dry conditions. We're still in a period of transitional ENSO until that time, however. We should still experience periods of frontal boundary precip through June into mid-July, with hot and humid days intermingled by August. How hot and humid remains the question, though. Muggy August and September humidity can still lead to isolated evening thunderstorms, so here's to hoping we avoid any outright drought conditions.
  2. The ECMWF-UKMET superblend for July-Nov from Ben Noll's site. That pattern/look is classic AMO+ combined with a La Niña. More to toss on the pile.
  3. Toss the latest NMME into the evidence pile for a busy ASO.
  4. Probably needs its own thread at this point. The MDT coverage area increased for Day 1/tomorrow now with larger hatched and 15% TOR probs.
  5. It's straight stupid how anomolous the current 28°C isotherm is across the MDR. I always pay more attention to that as it's really the harbringer of major hurricane potential. As soon as the upper atmosphere begins to settle into more of a late Summer / July pattern combined with La Niña and weakening trades, I fully expect an early onset of CV ASO+ and a hyperactive season.
  6. The Henagar radar signature has that violent nasty look to it. Hopefully, it cycles out soon.
  7. Fantastic thread about long-range MDR and an equatorial Atlantic Nino vs ENSO Nina event; furthermore, any implications on the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season.
  8. Accuweather is such a joke. At least show some semblance of professionalism instead of fearmongering like some weenie posting on Reddit. Also, a "15% chance of 30 named storms or more" seems rather high considering it's only happened once on record. How does a meteorologist even determine that statistic scientifically? "Explosive" as a headline is just clickbaity BS.
  9. The latest NMME now reaches into the heart of the Atlantic tropical season, and it's pretty eye-opening. Mighty strong positive AMO look. Obviously too early to start hyping as things are fluid and we still have a few months of long-range modeling precursors; however, if this pattern does evolve, it would certainly favor a low-shear MDR and long-track setup for Cape Verde hurricanes. SST patterns are not the end all, be all, of said pattern, but such a look could support north-central Atlantic and Bermuda ridging as well. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas4.html
  10. Work in progress as the column moistens. It's like flipping on a switch. We've got moderate flakes falling here now just south of Bristol.
  11. Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.
  12. Isentropic lift is increasing, and radar is filling with heavy returns along the TN/AL border. That is all moving NE, and as such, we should see a heavy snowband from SW of Knoxville, the I-75 corridor, up into Holston Valley and the I-81 corridor for the remainder of the day. I haven't really seen any of the mesoscales balk yet. Pretty confident in this snowstorm for a large 4-10" swath up the eastern Tennessee watershed, minus the mixing issues that may persist in the Chattanooga area.
  13. I actually like the current placement of the precip shield 60-72 hrs out. I feel like suppression might increase totals for the eastern Valley to TN/NC border as we dial into the event. But not so shifting that the I-75 corridor doesn't score big in your neck of the woods. I suppose this is our biggest chance of a good snow in a number of years if modeling doesn't crap the bed this weekend. Hopefully, as the higher resolution mesoscales come into better range, they maintain 3-6" coverage for all or most of East Tennessee.
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