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About Windspeed

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  1. That is technically the center of the old wave axis left over from the western Caribbean. The entire axis is aligning on a more north to south orientation with the broad low near the NW Yucatan. That is where most of the models want to develop the surface vortex after that feature pulls away from the peninsula into the northern BOC.
  2. I expect this to change by morning if not overnight. The NHC can use their new Potential Tropical Cyclone products to lay out the threat besides, even if the surface vortex takes longer than anticipated to organize. Additonally, I imagine the NWS will begin coordinating with local news affiliates from Brownsville, TX to LA to bring attention to the potential flooding threat.
  3. Yes I'm not buying the backtrack as much as just realizing a stall or slow drift up the coast is still very much in play. The thing we're hoping to avoid.
  4. Well this ECMWF run is bunk. So much for thinking lower QPF.
  5. WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It literally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts.
  6. More importantly, the ECMWF shows the surface low making progress inland and away from the immediate coastal region. Still poses an inland flooding threat, but that will help bring down those insane QPF amounts.
  7. 100% agreement here. The absurd QPF amounts aligning over large areas of the central and eastern Texas coastal region on the majority of global models is far more concerning to me than the potential wind strength or surge from even a major hurricane landfall. Yes, clearly a major hurricane would be bad for a port or city, but that can be mitigated somewhat by evacuations. A stalled intense coastal surface low with a strong moisture fetch in the environment that is being modeled over such a large region is a worse possible weather outcome here. Obviously both scenarios ocurring is the worst.
  8. The 00z ECMWF looks awful. Slowly drags hyper moisture fetch into the central and eastern Texas coastal region for four days. GEM was similar. Catastrophic flooding would occur.
  9. If the vortex develops at a higher latitude overnight then we're going to have some big changes in the modeling consensus tomorrow. That could also mean less time for a potential center to be over the Yucatan as well, though obviously dependant on how far north it forms.
  10. GFS has shifted north and is now parralleling the southern Texas coast before a landfall near Corpus Christi. Looking at the upper pattern, Harvey would have good potential to be a strong system if that solution were to play out.
  11. Shear is weakening. But I don't even think there is a broad surface circulation with this disturbance now. Just some weak vorticity in the mid levels. This mess will still have an opportunity to develop in the Bahamas or near the SE coast in the coming days however. Still bears watching for development.
  12. I think the poster meant October. Just for clarification, folks should know that, with respect to time, back means later and forward means sooner for posterity. I don't think peak season has shifted back a full month, but it may have shifted back a few weeks over the past decade. Might be something to look into when I have the time to break down seasonal trends since 2007.
  13. 92L has my attention not necessarily for short term developement, but where it will be in four days. Yes, this may well reach TS status over night or in the very near short term, but it will also encounter a developing unfavorable mid-to-upper level environment as is progresses W-WNW over the next 72 hours. However, what has me concerned about a potential Irma is the position of its surface low in 96 hrs, whether it is still a tropical storm or even a weak circulation. If Irma survives the trek north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it may end up positioned in the central Bahamas with a strengthening ridge directly north and a corridor of favorable atmospheric conditions for significant intensification. This could be a real threat to Florida or eventually the GOM down the road.
  14. Levi Cowan discussed the issues with this system in his afternoon update and why the models have a difficult time showing any significant intensification during the 72-96 hr time frame. Simply put, Harvey will endure northerly shear as it traverses the eastern and central Caribbean and may not reach favorable mid and upper level conditions until the western Caribbean. The mid level ridge strengthening behind the strong ULL over the Greater Antilles is spreading NW of Harvey. As the TS enters the eastern Caribbean, moderate northeasterly and northerly shear may impede it from the flow around that amplified ridge. If the cyclone can survive this onslaught of northerly flow and position itself under or SW of the strong ridge, or the LLC breaks down, or both instances occurring, it may find itself within a more favorable atmosphere between Jamaica and the Yucatan/Honduras.
  15. Not too shabby. This is easily a Cat 2. Gert will most likely succumb to shear over night but it is looking really good right now.