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About 1900hurricane

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    Luckless Stormchaser

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  • Location:
    College Station, TX

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  1. I suspect the anvil rain from the upstream storms is keeping that lead cell from going off more than it already has.
  2. Strong couplet back east of Graham too.
  3. I don't think veer-back was really an issue actually. Low level wind shear was ridiculous with huge to borderline comical hodographs (see special 21Z CLL sounding). I think the real failure mode was due to the boundary layer temperature profile. Using 00Z and 06Z LCH as a comparison, when the low level jet kicked to next level, it advected warmer temperatures into the 850-700 mb layer which killed low level instability. Between the 00Z and 06Z soundings at LCH, 3CAPE dropped from 126 to 28 J/kg despite nearly identical surface temperature and dewpoint at both times. I think this make it hard for storms to root at the surface level. A couple more degrees of surface heating may have made a big difference. Areas I drove yesterday were all in the 70-72ºF range and socked in clouds.
  4. About to get rough in Bryan/College Station. The strong and somewhat wavy signature on radar velocity makes me think QLCS tors aren't out of the question.
  5. Open warm sector convection tomorrow is a big question mark, but with me able to sneak out of a commitment a little early tomorrow, I might be in as good a position as any to try to catch any possible WAA streamer shower that tries to mature into something more. Open warm sector setup reminds me somewhat of 12/26/2015, which was one of the event mentioned in the FWD discussion posted above. Streamers often take time to become open warm sector convection, perhaps because of capping, so I think it's more likely that I'll be headed north than south. 12/26/2015 had streamers that developed around my area but didn't mature until around the FWD area, to unfortunate consequences. CAMs have been pretty lacking with such storms so far, but the 18Z HRRR did perhaps give it a shot. I'll certainly be watching trends with interest. Not expecting much from a chasing standpoint, but figured it doesn't hurt to try and catch something fairly local.
  6. HGX's most recent AFD seems very reasonable for Friday.
  7. Typhoon Faxai looks like it could be the rare typhoon to make landfall on Honshu as a fully tropical (not transitioning) system in the next 24 hours. Worse, it could hit the Tokyo Bay/Kanto Plain area head on.
  8. The cell near Childress looks to be taking even a harder right heading, almost due east the last few radar frames.
  9. Here's his Twitter feed. https://twitter.com/islivingston
  10. https://twitter.com/theweathermanda/status/1130569853046329344
  11. Quincy is discussing the event tomorrow live on Twitter right now (you can actually hear notifications from this thread on his stream). https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/1130320524385505280
  12. The 00Z HREFs have big UH maxima concentrated in two areas, Central Oklahoma and the Permian Basin of Texas, which matches the warm front/open warm sector and dryline threats, respectively. The NCAR Ensembles are still from about 24 hours ago, but they were highlighting the same areas. I'd probably play dryline tomorrow personally, mainly due to me having a higher confidence that storms will be better spaced with a better chance at staying discrete out there, but won't be playing anything in actuality due to prior commitments.
  13. It's just one solution from guidance, but to have open warm sector, warm front, and dry line supercells like the 00Z HRRR depicts would really be something else. Not sure when the last plains system had a ceiling this high.