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hlcater

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About hlcater

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    Formerly NWLinn

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KVTI
  • Location:
    Hiawatha, Eastern IA

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  1. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    I absolutely think the poor low level lapse rates and deep saturation had a lot to do with it. None of the updrafts were as explosive as expected, evidenced by the weak cores on even the established convection.
  2. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Huh? Are you sure you're not watching them replay old footage?
  3. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    We get it. No need to beat the dead horse here.
  4. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    99.999% chance destructive interference coming in from that angle and at that intensity.
  5. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Looking like a constructive cell merger on the sole remaining discrete supercell near hollis.
  6. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Poor lapse rates are probably inhibiting the development in OK. Or at least that's my guess.
  7. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    SPICY TAKE: The cell spacing right now is far too close to in order to maximize the tornado threat. Probably gonna have to wait for new updrafts to develop that are better separated from what's already becoming grunge. Gonna take some time for dominant storms to come out of that.
  8. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    I dont think this is worthy of a 60%. This is going to be a significant, possibly historic event, but people need to keep their expectations in check. I've seen comparisons to 4/27/11 on twitter and elsewhere and that's simply not what this is. We aren't gonna get 10 violent tornadoes today. I think 1-2 violent tornadoes is certainly within the realm of possibility and that something as high end as 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 is in the cards if the potential in this event is totally maximized, but something more like 5/24/11 seems like a reasonable outcome at this point.
  9. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Perhaps, but I think the warm front is gonna take on a more SW-NE component with time. It may have stalled in the west, but still seems to be continuing to lift northward farther east.
  10. hlcater

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    One thing worth mentioning is the appearance of several bands of confluence evident on visibile satellite here. These bands will provide somewhat of a focus for open warm sector supercells to develop on. This is one of the concerns I had last night with warm sector development remaining rather nebulous/slow to intensify essentially due to a lack of a boundary to focus things. The presence of these bands all but precludes that concern at this point. Dangerous day ahead.
  11. hlcater

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    This is some of the strongest wording I've personally read prior to an event(ie classics like 4/14/12 or 4/27/11 don't count because I read those after the event --- so basically since 2015). They weren't this bullish on any of the 2017 events. Heck, they even mentioned violent tornadoes. The amount of prior outlooks that mention violent tornadoes has to be no more than a handful.
  12. hlcater

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Also was just thinking about the possibility of dual high risks tomorrow. One issued by the WPC for flooding in N OK. The other being issued by the SPC for tornadoes, as it sounds like we're already getting that one. Don't think that's ever happened before, but I also don't think the WPC has been doing SPC style risks for very long, so small sample size.
  13. hlcater

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    I also think even barring any MCS activity along/north of warm front tomorrow morning(unlikely, but just for purposes of this post), I think new warm front development is gonna grow upscale into an MCS almost immediately. High CAPE values, coupled with a very strong 50kt LLJ and largely boundary parallel storm motion vectors scream upscale growth and subsequently, this is likely to be where the highest flash flooding threat is located. Given the strong low level shear, decent 0-3km CAPE(~150 J/kg) and low LCLs, even if a large MCS blows up, still could have a threat of embedded tornadic circulations, coupled with possible flash flooding? That has the potential to pose further issues, even if the significant tornado threat is farther away from the warm front.
  14. hlcater

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Yea it's very interesting that it's trending *down*, farther away from the WRF suite. The HRRR was significant as it was, but is seemingly getting more significant. Not good.
  15. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    That MCS threw down an OFB that is favorably oriented to storm motion vector. If it gets time to cook, could get interesting(in W IL) late this afternoon should redevelopment occur.
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