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About hlcater

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    Hiawatha, Eastern IA

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  1. Models as a whole have kind of abandoned this idea today. Now looks like its only gonna last 5-7 days before switching back to a more severe wx favorable base state.
  2. This isnt gonna be linear off the pacific front. Discrete storm mode with splitting cells seems most likely to me personally right now. Look at nature of boundary, storm speeds and shear vectors.
  3. Euro just popped a CA of 60. Quite a step up from previous runs and the NAM with CAs of 35-40.
  4. I do think this setup has the potential to be pretty clean. Certainly cleaner than 11/17 ended up verifying as. This doesn't mean this setup is superior to 11/17(because it isnt) but as far as storms themselves go, I think they're gonna be more isolated. The only things I'm worried about from a setup perspective are the critical angles/linear hodographs(see below) and the fairly limited residence time storms will have on the axis of best parameters before flying out of the warm sector at light speed. Storms, especially those at the triple point, may only have 2 hours or so before they go stable. With all this being said, even some small modification to the 0-3km hodograph yields pretty big changes and a much higher caliber of a setup. Whether or not this can be successfully chased remains to be seen.
  5. The NAM is actually the worst model in the suite right now. I think the globals(particularly the UK) are painting a better setup. The primary difference between them and the NAM is the fact that the NAM is significantly faster
  6. Quite a signal coming in from the UKie. Has had something similar for 3 or 4 runs now.
  7. Iowa has closed all schools for 4 weeks per Kim Reynolds.
  8. SARS-CoV-2(the virus itself) is susceptible to UV light just like all coronaviruses are. So I’m optimistic that once we get to may, this thing will be winding down. Heres a few links that I really like and are extraordinarily useful Fairly in depth and comprehensive synopsis of what this virus actually is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ ArcGIS dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Graphs and growth curves for certain countries: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Needless to say im disappointed in the amount of media catalyzed hype and panic buying that I’ve seen on twitter and elsewhere. Namely a certain joe rogan podcast with 6M views that was an absolute crime and is the equivalent of a weenie freaking out over a 384hr GFS kuchera map. But I think moving universities online and closing large public gatherings makes sense and is a necessary step to flatten the curve and prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed like it was in Italy and China.
  9. So... Apparently, its been 47 YEARS since CID last measured 12" of snow. I measured 12" in 2008, but apparently the airport did not. Absolutely astonishing how hard a measly 12" is around here. http://www.midwestweathercenter.com/nstew-blog/2020/2/28/missing-the-big-one-streaks-without-a-big-snow-storm
  10. Looks like we will. +NAO/AO looks to remain through at least the first half of March highly unlike the previous several years where we just couldn't shake -AO/NAO. The lack of an SSW this year also helps.
  11. This storm has trended yikesly. 24hrs ago I was worried about narrowly missing a big dog/the storm of the season. Now? Not so much. This thing could still become DET’s system yet. What would be excellent is if we could still manage to get a BS SSW in mid march like I mentioned at the beginning of this thread to ensure maximum suffering.
  12. CAMs are almost universally northwest of the globals, but that probably doesn't mean a whole lot as they kind of tend to overamp towards the end of their runs.
  13. If it's the UK vs the GFS, I'll be siding with the UK's evolution every time.