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hlcater

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About hlcater

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    Formerly NWLinn

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KVTI
  • Location:
    Hiawatha, Eastern IA

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  1. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Sounds rough but lucky injuries weren’t worse. An injury you can recover from, no matter how long it takes, is better than something that’s permenant. Wishing you best.
  2. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Yuck at the upcoming pattern. Hot and dry is my least favorite weather. If models are correct, interestingly some spots might be starting to look at drought concerns in 10 days or so. The GFSs have backed off on precip thru D10 as well. I dont know how I posted that in the OH thread, but I did, but now its here.
  3. hlcater

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Random question here, does anyone know if the FV3 is ocean coupled?
  4. hlcater

    Hurricane Barry

    Maybe I'm the worlds biggest noob, but I'm not totally sure dry air is currently the biggest issue. I'm sure it is at least part of the equation, as convection isn't really firing at all in the northern semicircle, but it's not getting entrained to the southern half, or at least I dont think it is. If it were, I feel like we'd be seeing surging OFBs/towers that dont last. Think I want to blame much stronger than anticipated northerly shear more than anything.
  5. hlcater

    Hurricane Barry

    Barry's surface presentation, actually presentation in general, still sucks. Heavily lopsided to the south and west with an elliptical low at the surface with a mesovort at each end. As long as this structure persists, I just cant see Barry strengthening quickly, if at all. I do think that the mesovort currently on the southern side of the ellipse will become more dominant with time, as it is more favorably oriented with respect to both the convection on the southern side and the mid level center. Meanwhile the currently dominant northern mesovort is in the process of swinging out into the northern semicircle, and given the lack of convection here, should shear out over the next several hours. It remains to be seen if the southern mesovort can take over as it passes under the deep convection, or whether this same cycle just repeats itself a few more times until northerly shear abates. Either way, Barry's presentation sucks and is not conducive for rapid strengthening.
  6. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Models this morning have relaxed the ridge just a little bit allowing a few thunderstorm chances to creep in over the next 7 days along the periphery of the ridge while areas immediately to our south and west continue to dry out.
  7. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    I too had a really solid funnel yesterday, not totally sure if it was down, but assume it was at least briefly as there were times when it was 1/2 to 2/3rds the way down. DVN knows about it so I presume they’ll probably try and find some damage if it was really down.
  8. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Cicadas are gross.
  9. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    Nice little MCS here in CR. Had numerous 50-60mph wind gusts as the gust front passed through.
  10. hlcater

    June 2019 General Discussion

    This MCS has an impressively dense canopy and combined with a cold pool that’s still well in place, we might struggle to reach posted highs 88-90. It’s still only 68 at noon.
  11. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    I think we'll be too far SW, especially initially, but it seems plausible that the ridge settles into a more traditional position centered over the Panhandles with time. Once this happens a more favorable pattern for severe weather/NW flow may return, but I think this is at least 8 or 9 days out. For now, areas in the northeast of the sub have the greatest chances.
  12. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    The upcoming pattern isn't great at all for severe lovers, which is bad news considering severe weather never really showed up for western portions of the sub(though IN has been having a great season so far). All models build in a suffocating ridge centered directly over the midwest and keep it there for at least a week. Think it's safe to write off any notable chances for severe weather until at least the 4th, if not later. Tomorrow holds some conditional chances of an MCS for IA/IL, but I would like a respectable setup worth chasing. Too much to ask for? Apparently so. As of now, I think I'd have to put the season so far as the worst one since 2013 in my area.
  13. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    The local severe season has kinda sucked so far, not gonna lie.
  14. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    From a tornadoes standpoint, Thursday looks more interesting to me than Friday does(Friday seems like it's gonna be upscale city). Very subtle/low key setup in central/western IA but CAMs this evening seem to agree decently enough on 1-2 supercells in a solid environment. SPC doesn't even acknowledge this potential, which for some reason makes me more enthusiastic about it given Iowa's track record with SPC outlooks.
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