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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud.
  2. Clear evidence of a hurricane at the mouth of Matagorda Bay. Elevation 7m. Assuming they see this observation, they'll upgrade.
  3. My guess is it gets bumped to 100mph at the next advisory.
  4. Yea earlier today I was skeptical that this was worth being named, but you cant really argue with the radar imagery and obs. Pretty solid little TS, no ifs ands or buts about it.
  5. Yea. These will go on the price tag.
  6. The damage tag for this storm will be one of the greats. Thinking north of 50bn is basically locked in.
  7. Do we need threads for every birdfart swirl out in the middle of the atlantic?
  8. It did in grand isle. Water topped Humphress's cam and it was 14ft ASL.
  9. god what a chad
  10. No one will ever top the Mexico Beach cam.
  11. 14 foot surge already is very respectable. IIRC surge shoots way up right as the eye passes. Still a bit out from that yet.
  12. How high is the cam above sea level? Not how high on the pole, but relative to sea level.
  13. Keep in mind the moat will collapse as soon as the storm starts to feel the effects of land interaction. EWRC came but not quick enough.
  14. Mesovorts present in the eyewall. We are losing pressure and fast.
  15. If this is the pace that is being set for the rest of the night, I wouldn't be surprised to see 940mb by 12z tomorrow.
  16. Jim Tang and Matt Coker will be there. As will Ryan Hearne/Ryan Darr.
  17. If we were doing ~3.5mb/hr earlier, pressure is probably in free fall now. Closed -70 ring, universally cooling CDO and multiple convective bursts on all sides of the eyewall.
  18. Starting to get an inner wind maximum indicative of greater core organization.
  19. Well okay, think of it this way, when there’s continuous play by play with “this is the best it’s looked!!!1!1!!1!!” chances are the storm isn’t struggling at all, but rather continuing to steadily intensify.
  20. I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?
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