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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater

    August 2019 General Discussion

    Yea, rather impressive wake low/MCV this morning. Not to mention this series of MCSs is doing wonders for our dry stretch.
  2. hlcater

    August 2019 General Discussion

    Levi changed the way the maps load to make them load slower to reduce server load. Now instead of loading all the frames at once, it only loads the current and then a few on either side.
  3. hlcater

    August 2019 General Discussion

    Surprised they introduced D1, it’s been fairly wet here recently, or at least enough to green things up a bit.
  4. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    I didn’t see it, but I know a few people that did.
  5. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    Looking like there’s pretty solid chances for a strong/severe MCS somewhere across E IA and W IL come Monday. Might be a shot for an isolated tornado early given rather impressive parameters in place, but seems more liable to go upscale sooner rather than later.
  6. I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.
  7. hlcater

    Severe Weather Risk 8/8/2019

    Yes, actually, gotta keep the place tidy
  8. hlcater

    Severe Weather Risk 8/8/2019

    We couldnt use the short/medium severe thread for a slight risk?
  9. hlcater

    August 2019 General Discussion

    This pattern we’ve been in for the past month is insufferable. Unsurprisingly, D0 has begun to show up like a rash across portions of the sub.
  10. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Really starting to get concerned with drought prospects around here after our dry July and likely dry start to August. Probably going to see a rather rapid expansion of D0 and maybe introduction of D1 for some.
  11. hlcater

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    supercell structure immediately south of St. Cloud organizing.
  12. hlcater

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    Super outflow dominant, looks exactly how I expected it would. 0 tornado threat with that storm. The one to the east however, is working on becoming surface based. It could produce, but strength/longevity of any tornado may be precluded by more linear convection developing to the south and west.
  13. hlcater

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    Funnel cloud on a storm with no 0-3km CAPE, no surface based parcels and that's outflow dominant? I understand covering your bases and being safe but I'd probably call BS on a funnel report, even from a trained spotter, in the environment that storm is in unless I had a picture.
  14. hlcater

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    No idea why, those storms are almost certainly at least somewhat elevated.
  15. hlcater

    7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

    Those supercells are well elevated at this time. I'd watch for more development on the front down by Benson where there is currently a patch of agitated cumulus. I do think storms up by Little Falls do eventually become surface based, but probably not within the next hour.
  16. hlcater

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    HRRR and other CAMs are still pretty gung ho on supercells this evening across central and E IA, however CAMs are doing a terrible job handling the MCS in NW IA right now, so I’m highly doubting these solutions.
  17. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Fine with me. I hate heat.
  18. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Sounds rough but lucky injuries weren’t worse. An injury you can recover from, no matter how long it takes, is better than something that’s permenant. Wishing you best.
  19. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Yuck at the upcoming pattern. Hot and dry is my least favorite weather. If models are correct, interestingly some spots might be starting to look at drought concerns in 10 days or so. The GFSs have backed off on precip thru D10 as well. I dont know how I posted that in the OH thread, but I did, but now its here.
  20. hlcater

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Random question here, does anyone know if the FV3 is ocean coupled?
  21. hlcater

    Hurricane Barry

    Maybe I'm the worlds biggest noob, but I'm not totally sure dry air is currently the biggest issue. I'm sure it is at least part of the equation, as convection isn't really firing at all in the northern semicircle, but it's not getting entrained to the southern half, or at least I dont think it is. If it were, I feel like we'd be seeing surging OFBs/towers that dont last. Think I want to blame much stronger than anticipated northerly shear more than anything.
  22. hlcater

    Hurricane Barry

    Barry's surface presentation, actually presentation in general, still sucks. Heavily lopsided to the south and west with an elliptical low at the surface with a mesovort at each end. As long as this structure persists, I just cant see Barry strengthening quickly, if at all. I do think that the mesovort currently on the southern side of the ellipse will become more dominant with time, as it is more favorably oriented with respect to both the convection on the southern side and the mid level center. Meanwhile the currently dominant northern mesovort is in the process of swinging out into the northern semicircle, and given the lack of convection here, should shear out over the next several hours. It remains to be seen if the southern mesovort can take over as it passes under the deep convection, or whether this same cycle just repeats itself a few more times until northerly shear abates. Either way, Barry's presentation sucks and is not conducive for rapid strengthening.
  23. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Models this morning have relaxed the ridge just a little bit allowing a few thunderstorm chances to creep in over the next 7 days along the periphery of the ridge while areas immediately to our south and west continue to dry out.
  24. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    I too had a really solid funnel yesterday, not totally sure if it was down, but assume it was at least briefly as there were times when it was 1/2 to 2/3rds the way down. DVN knows about it so I presume they’ll probably try and find some damage if it was really down.
  25. hlcater

    July 2019 General Discussion

    Cicadas are gross.
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