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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. Would think I clicked onto the NYC sub Jesus
  2. I mentioned exactly that on a different forum. Call me bullish, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see blizzard warnings whipped out tomorrow if we can squeeze out even an inch on top of the frictionless surface from overnight. It really doesn't take much with winds gusting to 45-50mph to create ground blizzard or even full blizzard conditions if that band ends up being fairly robust.
  3. Same out here. I measured 4.7" as a composite right as we started to switch to sleet. Appears as if the 3-5" calls were money across much of the area. This could change if the HRRR has it's way tomorrow...
  4. Anyone know why the HRRR/pivotal weather p-depiction algorithm continuously paints mixed precip with a profile like this? Just a bug, or is there some reason for it that I'm not aware of? For context, this is from an area immediately on the backside of the low tomorrow (of which the HRRR is very aggressive with breaking out precip, much more so than the rest of guidance).
  5. The HRRR verbatim would be a crippling winter storm over here. 0.10-0.20 of ice here, with 6"+ of snow. Not to mention the light rates of the FZR would be ideal for ice accretion, as well as coming off a single digit arctic airmass yesterday.
  6. High currently over MN is either side of 1050mb currently. Doubt it really matters a whole lot, but this is a few mb stronger than forecast.
  7. DVN opts for WSW for the QCA and Iowa north of I-80. 4-6” with up to 0.10 of ice.
  8. Also took a step towards the GFS with the surface trough extending into MN. All but assures a fairly swift transition to rain for many. I think this is the most likely solution. MN/WI continue to look golden though.
  9. I’m still not ready to be an optimist
  10. HRRR brings another wave of precip across my area tomorrow morning, and while temps would definitely support snow, the complete lack of moisture in the DGZ suggests otherwise. Could get some more freezing rain or graupel rather than snow if it's right.
  11. Freezing rain has begun here. Looking at radar, we could see 0.10+ of accrual before switching to snow.
  12. FWIW, the WRF suite NSSL/ARW/NMMB is not as bullish on the first wave as the NAM/HRRR/RAP are.
  13. I’m still not sure what exactly to expect from this system. Some models(UK/GEM/ICON) show very little, while others(NAM/EC/GFS) show a solid hit. I’m still worried about being missed SE.
  14. Thinking with trends this morning of a more progressive, and therefore more southerly, second wave that it seems fairly likely that the best snow slides southeast of here. If I had to take a stab, Id bet area from Kirksville to Sterling and far SE WI get the best snow. It’s a narrow band in any case, so any additional change in track to the south and we may get shut out entirely.
  15. One thing that puts a hold on that for me is the positive NAO/AO. To me, that would lend more credence to the storm cutting more NW, like it currently is, opposed to sliding south.
  16. Do you happen to have the operational by chance?
  17. Current snow depth: 0.0". What a lovely way to head into Christmas!
  18. Might squeeze some dixie severe out of that.
  19. Looks like yet another 2010s december for the trash bin. Yippee1
  20. where we can have split flow in April to maximize suffering.