hlcater

One thing worth mentioning is the appearance of several bands of confluence evident on visibile satellite here. These bands will provide somewhat of a focus for open warm sector supercells to develop on. This is one of the concerns I had last night with warm sector development remaining rather nebulous/slow to intensify essentially due to a lack of a boundary to focus things. The presence of these bands all but precludes that concern at this point. Dangerous day ahead.

This is some of the strongest wording I've personally read prior to an event(ie classics like 4/14/12 or 4/27/11 don't count because I read those after the event --- so basically since 2015). They weren't this bullish on any of the 2017 events. Heck, they even mentioned violent tornadoes. The amount of prior outlooks that mention violent tornadoes has to be no more than a handful.

Also was just thinking about the possibility of dual high risks tomorrow. One issued by the WPC for flooding in N OK. The other being issued by the SPC for tornadoes, as it sounds like we're already getting that one. Don't think that's ever happened before, but I also don't think the WPC has been doing SPC style risks for very long, so small sample size.

I also think even barring any MCS activity along/north of warm front tomorrow morning(unlikely, but just for purposes of this post), I think new warm front development is gonna grow upscale into an MCS almost immediately. High CAPE values, coupled with a very strong 50kt LLJ and largely boundary parallel storm motion vectors scream upscale growth and subsequently, this is likely to be where the highest flash flooding threat is located. Given the strong low level shear, decent 0-3km CAPE(~150 J/kg) and low LCLs, even if a large MCS blows up, still could have a threat of embedded tornadic circulations, coupled with possible flash flooding? That has the potential to pose further issues, even if the significant tornado threat is farther away from the warm front.

Yea it's very interesting that it's trending *down*, farther away from the WRF suite. The HRRR was significant as it was, but is seemingly getting more significant. Not good.

That MCS threw down an OFB that is favorably oriented to storm motion vector. If it gets time to cook, could get interesting(in W IL) late this afternoon should redevelopment occur.

Will have to watch the behavior of the late morning MCS tomorrow. Truly has the potential to make/break the setup. On one hand, an OFB given off by MCS could serve as a focus for initiation tomorrow afternoon. On another, it could just plow through and overturn the entire warm sector. Honestly, I'm thinking the latter is the more likely of the two. Primarily because of how late the MCS is progged to come through the target area(~17-19z). This inherently brings a whole host of problems and concerns typically associated with the passage of an MCS. If this thing doesn't weaken like it's expected to, cloud debris and an overturned warm sector are serious issues. Heck, even if this thing *does* weaken as forecasted, could still have remnant cloud cover and subsequent hinderance of destabilization. If you can't tell, I'm highly skeptical of the potential here. If the MCS passes favorably(like they always do, right??), maybe we have an event, but prior experience with these sorts of setups is screaming to me that this MCS won't weaken as quickly as expected and that it persists into NW IN before it becomes detached from MUCAPE gradient and weakens. Even if MCS fails to weaken, south and west portions of the warm sector should be alright, but initiation is super questionable over there.

Yesterday was a straight sin. Worst day of this spring so far easily.

CAMs still look good...

Can we just not with the snow?

I'd add a 15% hail risk and probably drop the 2% tor. Low-mid 50s dews are the best that can be found today, coupled with mid-upper 70s? That just ain't gon' work. Steep mid level lapse rates between 7.0-7.5 would suggest potential for marginally severe hail with stronger storms though.

You guys can have this one.

lol

My attention is on the cell near Alexandria. Meso still taking shape upstairs, but it's noticeably more isolated/robust than everything around it and heading towards the pristine delta region. EDIT: The next few scans have continued to increase meso intensity, tighten it, and inflow/low level rotation is now increasing as well. This one could be a mean one.

HRRR now popping areas of over 4000(!) SBCAPE later today coupled with ~400 0-1km SRH and 500+ 0-3km SRH with supercells moving through an hour later. Extremely volatile picture being painted for central/east LA if this can be realized to even half of its potential. Not sure I understand the decision to not go high at 1630z.

Franklin cell getting ready for part 2. The cell to itself has a noticeably robust updraft and should be watched too down the line.

Got your boosters strapped for that 50kt SMV? Though I’d probably chase too if I weren’t busy. I’ve been eying tomorrow for the past few days and think we could definitely see a tor or two, especially if the higher instability on the HRRR is realized.

Doubt it.

Could be a cold core event over Iowa Thursday. Doesn’t look great but perhaps something worth watching.

I'm concerned about moisture on the 10th and concerned about veering in the warm sector on the 11th. Unless moisture markedly increases on the 10th or the low occludes slower, I cant see this amounting much more than a decent QLCS.

Weenie supreme...

There's some long range support for such a pattern showing up week 2 of april.

Why are people even acknowledging that guy? That sort of stupid isn’t worth y’alls time.

Yea I’m far more optimistic for this season over last season to say the least.

The launch of the FV3 has been delayed in order to try and correct the significant cold bias.