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About wxmx

  • Birthday 12/29/1973

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    Monterrey, MX

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  1. Looking at the MJO, the GEFS and EPS continue to show a very strong wave about to enter phase 7, but past day 7 significantly slowing and losing amplitude. The operational models aren't as aggressive with the wave plummeting, and that would be a better prospect for storminess overall.
  2. Yeah, fully agree with your assessment. Looks like constant cold seeping south, east of the Rockies, but dry overall, other than South TX, MX and the Gulf Coast, which could have drizzle and lows developing east of Brownsville. Unless we get that strong PV weaken, move south and elongate in a positive trough, lowering the heights in the SW, much more colder and wetter prospects look hard to obtain.
  3. Not necessarily...you can get a Baja low that doesn't dig that far into MX and some ridging near the SE coast. That could create a nice bowling ball low for N TX. Also, you can get a big low level high moving south the plains, with ridging in MX...that would be a good setup for overrunning events in N TX as well. What I'm trying to highlight is that there's a good chance that we'll get a very cold source in Canada and that eventually the cold dam will burst. Whatever happens next is up for grabs.
  4. A PV near the Hudson Bay is one of the elements present in a McFarland signature. A tightly wound vortex won't unload the cold into the lower latitudes, or it will in small doses, but a deep storm moving south from the upstream flow can relax the heights into the lower latitudes. That can happen if we get a strong west coast ridge, better if it connects to the EPO ridge (we have had a few this winter). It can lead to suppression (again, this winter), but a not so strong ridge (neutral PNA) can benefit the southern Plains with a storm. All this is speculative, and, as I said before, I think the models were too fast with the pattern change to colder, and as expected they have been delaying the cold dam burst past day 10. But a passage of a coherent MJO wave into phases 8-2 would activate the above mentioned storms, and relax the heights with high amplification. With a so cold and dense air mass, you don't even need that much amplification, and even can have overrunning events without a strong mid level storm present. The synoptic events to watch are 1. the migration of the Aleutian ridge to NE Siberia then progress east to Alaska, plus a strong vortex near the Hudson Bay...that's a recipe for very cold anomalies in Canada (very confident it will happen) and 2. a ridge building near the West coast, that allows amplification, and storms to ride south, downstream from said ridge and upstream from the Canadian vortex (much more iffy, especially considering it's in the long range).
  5. But the AO and EPO are forecasted to go negative
  6. wxmx

    Cross Hemisphere ridge

    We are probably heading, yet again, to a similar configuration around day 10, with potentially the coldest air mass of the season in our side of the globe.
  7. Models are showing the coldest and most expansive air mass of the season in Canada, with the NE Siberian and West Coast ridges joining up in Alaska, in a classic -EPO configuration. Temps < -40C/F bottle up and are ready to burst the dam by the end of the first week of February. The question is if it's going to be a direct hit or a glancing blow, as these super dense air masses can't be kept forever up there. * First time I see a 1070mb high in NW Canada in the GFS...although it's day 13
  8. The former, looking at the air masses source region. The pattern looks tightly coupled to a currently strong MJO wave. Models are usually too fast with it, so I'll say that we'll see some delay on the arctic outbreak to the second week of February.
  9. Next shot for NM is around the 21st. Then, the 28th+ looks like an opportunity for most of the region if heights in the Pacific coast can build and tap the Canadian cold air. Plus, it looks like the NE will build a semi-blocking ridge, which would give us a deepening, slow moving trough and a 1-2 punch of cold air, plus the resulting positive tilt to the trough can tap moisture from the Pacific.
  10. Wintry mix here. Mostly freezing drizzle, but also snow and sleet. Currently we are having very light sleet.
  11. I said a few days ago that two snow events in one winter was unheard of here and that stratocumulus snow was something I hadn't experienced until this year. I might have to update those two statements in a couple of days.
  12. Models are latching on Canadian's idea of a weak s/w spinning off the W Coast trough into NW MX. That helps to moisten up the STJ and allows the cold to come a bit farther south Euro:
  13. Yes, the region has to watch the very cold air intrusion Tue/Wed which will feature a s/w crossing the area a day afterwards.
  14. wxmx

    Cross Hemisphere ridge

    Use the http version of the image, not the https one. eg. use http://image.ibb.co/jwWvbm/77b.gif, not https://image.ibb.co/jwWvbm/77b.gif
  15. Colder than forecasted, and definitely wetter. Drizzle lasted for over 50 hours...nothing was forecasted until the very last minute. A few hours of stratocumulus snow were included (first I ever witnessed, you can see the rather uncommon sounding we experienced, you can even see in one of the pics that the higher elevations missed the snow) for a trace to small accumulations in places, plus freezing drizzle and freezing fog, making it the second event this far down this winter.