wxmx

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About wxmx

  • Birthday 12/29/1973

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    MMMY
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Monterrey, MX

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  1. 24 hours rainfall, as reported near the airport, 507mm (20 inches)... Slight rain at the moment, and not big accumulations are expected, although the next few 2-3 days we are still expecting precipitation.
  2. "Wimpy" Fernand has dumped 10" IMBY and counting.
  3. Around 14+ hours non stop rain around MBY today. I estimate around 6-7" have fell, and it's raining cats and dogs out there attm.
  4. Just like in last November, and last winter as well, strato snow (low level cold dome, with overrunning warm, relatively moist air) was seen at around 1300m+ a couple of days ago. Pretty uncommon occurrences, that have become more frequent these last 2 winters. By Saturday we expect highs in the mid 90s. Not even Vivaldi executed his Four Seasons so fast.
  5. Last winter's pattern appears to be showing up again. It's veeery early for snow here, but models show that there's an outside chance, especially over high land.
  6. That impressive outflow channel, helping vacate the upper levels and the higher OHC are offsetting the 25kts shear. Strong and continuous bursts of convection due to increased instability are doing the trick. Looks like it's at least steady state until landfall.
  7. Looking at the MJO, the GEFS and EPS continue to show a very strong wave about to enter phase 7, but past day 7 significantly slowing and losing amplitude. The operational models aren't as aggressive with the wave plummeting, and that would be a better prospect for storminess overall.
  8. Yeah, fully agree with your assessment. Looks like constant cold seeping south, east of the Rockies, but dry overall, other than South TX, MX and the Gulf Coast, which could have drizzle and lows developing east of Brownsville. Unless we get that strong PV weaken, move south and elongate in a positive trough, lowering the heights in the SW, much more colder and wetter prospects look hard to obtain.
  9. Not necessarily...you can get a Baja low that doesn't dig that far into MX and some ridging near the SE coast. That could create a nice bowling ball low for N TX. Also, you can get a big low level high moving south the plains, with ridging in MX...that would be a good setup for overrunning events in N TX as well. What I'm trying to highlight is that there's a good chance that we'll get a very cold source in Canada and that eventually the cold dam will burst. Whatever happens next is up for grabs.
  10. A PV near the Hudson Bay is one of the elements present in a McFarland signature. A tightly wound vortex won't unload the cold into the lower latitudes, or it will in small doses, but a deep storm moving south from the upstream flow can relax the heights into the lower latitudes. That can happen if we get a strong west coast ridge, better if it connects to the EPO ridge (we have had a few this winter). It can lead to suppression (again, this winter), but a not so strong ridge (neutral PNA) can benefit the southern Plains with a storm. All this is speculative, and, as I said before, I think the models were too fast with the pattern change to colder, and as expected they have been delaying the cold dam burst past day 10. But a passage of a coherent MJO wave into phases 8-2 would activate the above mentioned storms, and relax the heights with high amplification. With a so cold and dense air mass, you don't even need that much amplification, and even can have overrunning events without a strong mid level storm present. The synoptic events to watch are 1. the migration of the Aleutian ridge to NE Siberia then progress east to Alaska, plus a strong vortex near the Hudson Bay...that's a recipe for very cold anomalies in Canada (very confident it will happen) and 2. a ridge building near the West coast, that allows amplification, and storms to ride south, downstream from said ridge and upstream from the Canadian vortex (much more iffy, especially considering it's in the long range).
  11. We are probably heading, yet again, to a similar configuration around day 10, with potentially the coldest air mass of the season in our side of the globe.
  12. Models are showing the coldest and most expansive air mass of the season in Canada, with the NE Siberian and West Coast ridges joining up in Alaska, in a classic -EPO configuration. Temps < -40C/F bottle up and are ready to burst the dam by the end of the first week of February. The question is if it's going to be a direct hit or a glancing blow, as these super dense air masses can't be kept forever up there. * First time I see a 1070mb high in NW Canada in the GFS...although it's day 13