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About wxmx

  • Birthday 12/29/1973

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  • Location:
    Monterrey, MX
  1. I think it's related to the following variables: Decaying cyclones have a more uniform and large RMW than intensifying TCs, on which the RMW is tighter and steeper, on average. Usually, intensifying TCs are more convectively active near the center, meaning they can transport winds from the lower layers of the atmosphere more efficiently On landfall, the intensifying cyclone carries some impetu, so they are more prone to keep higher winds farther inland than decaying TCs, which are probably rapidly decelerating in terms of wind speed.
  2. You can clearly see in visible it's a very broad low, with two distinct low level vortices. The one south, just east/over Laguna de Terminos is the one the models were pinning for development a few days ago, the one near the NW tip of the Yucatan is the one they are favoring for development now. The mid level vorticity is very stretched north/south. All this means is that it will take it's sweet time to develop, but also suggests it won't be a small TC. It will probably be able to carry a lot of moisture with it.
  3. There's a north/south oriented ridge squeezed between the strong ULL near the FL Keys and the trough you mention in the Central Atlantic. Harvey is positioned in the SE side of that ridge, so that's the reason we see NE to E shear affecting it. As Harvey progresses westward, a trough will swing across the CONUS and weaken the SE ridge, allowing the cyclone to put the brakes on and gain latitude. Depending on how much the ridge weakens, it's the latitude gain. Guidance is relatively tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Then there's guidance scattering afterwards, with some models slamming Harvey into Central America and never seeing the light in the BoC, and the Euro as far North as the NW GoM, near the TX upper coast. BTW, after slamming the brakes, the atmosphere gets very conducive for development, but there will be land interaction by that time.
  4. Recon is in the storm and a rather impressive convective burst is going on. Current findings suggest a healthy 35 kts TS
  5. Vis imagery shows that there's a good chance that 92L has a closed low. There's some NE shear, but nothing major. Convection is not that great, but it's increasing, especially around and west of the LLC. Next TWO will probably pump probabilities a good deal. [Time sensitive]
  6. @ldub23, ok we get it, the MDR has had suboptimal conditions for several seasons now. Let's move past that, it sounds like a broken record now.
  7. Eyewall tightened some according to latest MW. Franklin also gained a bit of latitude, which is important due to the orientation of the coast line.
  8. The BoC is working it's magic. Too bad it almost always gets out of magic in the end Pretty sure Franklin will attain hurricane strength and be considered so at the 4PM CDT advisory. Let's see if it's currently in a RIC, so that it can get most of it the next 6 hours, before conditions halt the cycle.
  9. MW shows eyewall's forming. Also, that is evident on the most recent satellite imagery.
  10. Right, especially since where Franklin is headed to is where the mountains are closer to the coast.
  11. Unlike the Tamaulipas coast, the Veracruz coast is full of small towns and villages all along. He can position himself in a good place. Nautla, Vega de Alatorre, Laguna Verde (in a big storm is a no-no, as it hosts the country's only nuclear power plant), Zempoala, etc.
  12. Franklin didn't waste time. Pressure is back down to pre landfall levels and a strong convection blowup erupted right on top of the center. For the next 24 hours conditions are optimal and Franklin can become a hurricane.
  13. And as sickly as it looks, it apparently is trying to build an eyewall.
  14. Outflow is spectacular and pressure was still slowly dropping, but yes, this is a skeleton of a cyclone. As convective diurnal minimum ends and maximum starts we'll probably see some pretty decent convection fire up at landfall and afterwards.
  15. Latest recon pass shows slight strengthening wrt previous passes. FL and SFMR now support the 50 kt sustained winds.