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wxmx

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About wxmx

  • Birthday 12/29/1973

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    MMMY
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Monterrey, MX
  1. Yeah, but not too much. A full phasing could suppress the storm south, and give Houston another taste of snow.
  2. Yeah, and pretty early in the season. The Euro is bullish as well. It all comes down to how much phasing of the current Baja low goes on as the Polar Jet brings an s/w to meet it. The models are trending for much more interaction with the latest 12z runs, hence the sudden change of tune for this parts in relatively short notice.
  3. Models are starting to show snow for places > 5000 ft around here for this Friday, with the GFS being the most bullish. Pattern allows for storm after storm from the Pacific to dig south. A very cold pattern is taking shape for the Christmas week as well. It's a truly exceptional weather pattern.
  4. We didn't get the snow jackpot, but the big prize was so close that I could smell it. From my bedroom window you could see the mountains to the NW and N that got the main snow band. The highway from Monterrey to Laredo was closed with vehicles stranded for over 15 hours. Reports indicate 10+ inches of snow there (40 kms north of Monterrey). Mountains to the NW showed incredible gradients, with some peaks completely snow capped, with at least 1.5 feet of snow, probably closer to 2 feet at least. While 3 kms to the east there was probably less than 6 inches. Mountains to my south are higher, but probably got less than 6-8 inches top. In another news, the pattern appears to reload, with models showing the classic Hawaiian trough/Alaskan ridge progressing east into a W Pac ridge, mid Conus trough. Even the 6z GFS today shows a clear and extreme McFarland signature, with a 588dm ridge into south Alaska :o. It's in the long range, so I won't take it very seriously until it shows in the <7 days progs.
  5. Here around the state: http://www.elnorte.com/libre/players/mmplayer.aspx?idm=89149&te=100&ap=1
  6. Increasingly likely that the low lands here we'll see accumulating snow. Modeling has trended colder, wetter and more energized with almost every single run since Dec 3rd. Now looking at mesoscale models and the Euro that are developing a heavy snow band about 50-80 kms north of Monterrey. Some models show more than 10"of snow in that band. The 12z GFS shows over an inch of precipitation IMBY while the whole column plummets below freezing. Not all would be snow, but at least half of it would (conservatively) if taken verbatim. It would be the largest snowfall here in 50 years.
  7. Models have trended for the polar jet s/w to phase with the stj s/w in NW MX, bringing colder air and more moisture. This has translated to enhanced probabilities of wintery precipitation IMBY...and my literal BY could see snowflakes, not just the mountains. This would beat the earliest snowfall from Dec 12, 1997 in modern times. The synoptic setup is similar to Dec 1997 and Dec 2004, but with a less tilted trough and a bit less height crash, although the Pacific ridge is much stronger, allowing to tap a bit colder air from Canada. 850mb temps in 1997 and 2004 dipped around -5C, I expect similar this time, although the coldest models show something around -7/-8 C. The boundary layer will be relatively warm for the most part of the event, with temps hovering above freezing, although models have trended colder and are now showing freezing for a few hours Friday morning. That and bands of heavier snowfall could allow for some trace or little accumulation near the valley (500-600m ASL) with a nice tight gradient the further up you go, up to maybe a foot above 2000m. Latest GFS (Tue 12z)
  8. Chances of wintry precipitation are increasing in the higher parts of MBY for Thu/Fri. Kind of early this far south.
  9. Any threshold? As TS, TD or ET? 0 TS 1 TD (Vince) Many ET Some noteworthy ETs are Storm #2 1883 (80 kts), Debbie 1961(70 kts) and Floyd 1993 (70 kts)
  10. Not just forward speed, but also size is a factor on whether OHC is important or not. Big cyclones will tend to churn water ahead of it, cooling SSTs. Also, another example of an intense cyclone strengthening up to landfall in a very shallow shelf was Felix. Does it matter much that you upwell water from 15-20 mts below sea surface when the whole column is 30C?
  11. I edited my response regarding "less wind". I meant that for a single point, the time it will be under damaging winds is going to be less than in a slow moving system. That translates to less damage, even though the max winds are the same. Also, the wind distribution is asymmetric as you say, but that means the other half of the cyclone will have a larger area of max winds than it would have if it had been moving slower. It kind of compensates.
  12. Fast moving storms will tend to do less damage than a same size, same intensity storm in all aspects. Less rain, less surge piling and less time under damaging winds over a defined region.
  13. And of course, as I was typing that, the 12z GFS decided to accelerate things by a few hours :S. Still, I think there's a good time buffer for you to get inbound with no issues, but hope there are no flight delays that day.
  14. Randy, I think you're safe, even if it intensifies into a hurricane. CUN shouldn't get TS winds until late tomorrow. A little more dicey, since the airline has to make a call several hours before 11 am. At 11 am it should be all clear, and I think the chances of you having a cancellation are less than 50%, but it will be a close call. I think the incoming flights that have a higher chance of being disrupted range from 8pm Friday to 5am Saturday for landing time.