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About wxmx

  • Birthday 12/29/1973

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  • Location:
    Monterrey, MX
  1. Any threshold? As TS, TD or ET? 0 TS 1 TD (Vince) Many ET Some noteworthy ETs are Storm #2 1883 (80 kts), Debbie 1961(70 kts) and Floyd 1993 (70 kts)
  2. Not just forward speed, but also size is a factor on whether OHC is important or not. Big cyclones will tend to churn water ahead of it, cooling SSTs. Also, another example of an intense cyclone strengthening up to landfall in a very shallow shelf was Felix. Does it matter much that you upwell water from 15-20 mts below sea surface when the whole column is 30C?
  3. I edited my response regarding "less wind". I meant that for a single point, the time it will be under damaging winds is going to be less than in a slow moving system. That translates to less damage, even though the max winds are the same. Also, the wind distribution is asymmetric as you say, but that means the other half of the cyclone will have a larger area of max winds than it would have if it had been moving slower. It kind of compensates.
  4. Fast moving storms will tend to do less damage than a same size, same intensity storm in all aspects. Less rain, less surge piling and less time under damaging winds over a defined region.
  5. And of course, as I was typing that, the 12z GFS decided to accelerate things by a few hours :S. Still, I think there's a good time buffer for you to get inbound with no issues, but hope there are no flight delays that day.
  6. Randy, I think you're safe, even if it intensifies into a hurricane. CUN shouldn't get TS winds until late tomorrow. A little more dicey, since the airline has to make a call several hours before 11 am. At 11 am it should be all clear, and I think the chances of you having a cancellation are less than 50%, but it will be a close call. I think the incoming flights that have a higher chance of being disrupted range from 8pm Friday to 5am Saturday for landing time.
  7. 12z reliable guidance has shifted a bit west. Land interaction with Nic/Hon seems unavoidable and a Yucatan's landfall more likely now before entering the GoM. Interaction with land seems of a rather short duration and over "cyclone friendly" land, so I expect any disruption to be short lived and with little consequence to the structure. In the longer term, it appears the GFS is forecasting a shallower trough that has a hard time coming south, while the Euro is deeper/colder for the central/southern states, which in turn erode the Atlantic ridge to a greater extent than the GFS, making future Nate to turn more to the east in the GoM.
  8. Agree...same goes for Homestead during Andrew. Wooden frame houses and mobile homes don't stand a chance against a cat 4/5...OTOH reinforced concrete buildings will remain with little to no structural damage. Yes, windows, doors, roof tiles and damage related to falling trees/flying debris may occur, but you won't see a clean slab in the aftermath of a cat 4/5.
  9. Yes, those are the two areas to watch by the end of the first week of October. It looks like a monsoon gyre in the progs, with a big western trough and upstream ridging for 2/3 of the CONUS. Looks like a hot October start for most of the CONUS east of the Rockies and wet in MX, FL and W GoM.
  10. While recon is not finding winds that support a 110 kts cane, it's also showing a decrease in central pressure. This is probably related to an eyewall restructuring that is happening now. MW imagery now shows a fairly decent eyewall, especially in the north half and IR shows very cold cloud tops surrounding the eye. This is probably the best Maria has looked since leaving Puerto Rico behind. Another thing of note is that shear is shown as just below 20 kts again, as well.
  11. Stan was retired
  12. It is factored in, other than the immediate coast, maximum winds are never expected inland, unless it's at an unimpeded height, but those winds are not representative of the near surface winds.
  13. Shear increased temporarily according to CIMSS to between 20-30 kts very early this morning, then went down to around 20kts, but it's on the rise again.
  14. Maria up to 110 kts and 955mb