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About wxmx

  • Birthday 12/29/1973

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    Monterrey, MX

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  1. Looking at the models/ensembles, the stronger/earlier development, the farther right it goes, looks like a good example of beta drift.
  2. Officially a cat 2 - 85 kts hurricane, with 967mb central pressure.
  3. 968mb extrapolated, 85 kts SFMR. It will probably be upgraded to cat 2
  4. Visible imagery. Sunset are the beer googles of hurricanes.
  5. Hopefully before sunset. Would be a very photogenic image of Grace
  6. Shear has abated some, to around 10-15 kts. Looks like it gained a bit of latitude during the convective explosion, but not much. Now looks like Tecolutla may be ground zero. If trends continue we can speculate on a major at landfall.
  7. Diana 1990 and Gert 1993 are possible analogs to strength and landfall location. They both caused record flooding in the area.
  8. Yeah, no cyclone is match to the Sierra Madre. The bigger and meaner, the more dramatic the fall. Only thing is all it's juice is squeezed out, causing mudslides and extensive flooding.
  9. Yes, now I have this image in my mind
  10. And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.
  11. Briefly yesterday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al07/al072021.discus.022.shtml?
  12. Three hours old, but that's a pretty good structure. If it can get steady < -70C cloud tops in the eyewall, it can RI.
  13. 990mb from dropsonde and 10kts wind. Slowly but steadily intensifying.
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