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Everything posted by wxmx

  1. It's even gaining some latitude in the short term, that enhances the probability of Puerto Cabezas/Bilwi being in the northern eyewall, plus the highest surge.
  2. That's because that awesome outflow channel is evacuating the upper levels of the cyclone nicely, forcing strong connection to popup over Gamma. The next 24 hours it'll see the strongest shear, relaxing a bit gradually afterwards
  3. It's moving a bit faster than forecasted. About to get it's feet wet. I think it will get a bit farther north than the forecasted track before turning west, southwest
  4. The only place in the GOM where where shear is forecasted to remain low (and there's little dry air) is the Bay of Campeche. There have been a few GFS runs showing a significant cyclone there (not the Euro), but most just shove it well SW, after the Yucatan, towards land, without much chances to develop.
  5. Doing ok...yeah, I have little time nowadays, but Hannah, and now TD22 (and the likes) will always pull the weather weenie out of me
  6. Warming up sea surface wouldn't take much time, and usually, more important than sun light is wind. Calm seas, with little churning can sensibly warm sea surface...and low clouds at night to trap some of the low level atmospheric heat would also help. But that would be at depths of no more than a few meters. The heat capacity of the area south of LA is pretty low right now, so I don't think it would recover much in that aspect. A smaller, faster moving system would resent this heat content loss less than a bigger, slower moving one.
  7. Would be quite a feat, being inland ... but yeah, it looks like a bona fide TC around 22.2N
  8. Stations around the city are reporting from 6.5 to 12 inches of precipitation...and according to radar, we are not half done yet. https://www.semaforo.mx/articulo/carretera-saltillo-coahuila
  9. Bumped to 80kts in the 4pm advisory, just short of cat 2.
  10. ^ That, with a 20% reduction would translate to ~90kts...Cat 2 very achievable
  11. Two 81 kts and two 80kts SFMR
  12. No minimum extrapolated pressure this pass, but the last one was 972.6 and was 5 observations before the calmest wind. Maybe a drop of ~2mb? We'll have to wait for the dropsonde.
  13. Flooding chances for MBY are pretty high with the increase of cloud envelope and nudge south of the track. Mountains here really squeeze these systems out of their moisture.
  14. That's for Gonzalo. For Hanna its a bit later 2. TROPICAL STORM HANNA FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 A. 25/1730Z B. AFXXX 0708A HANNA C. 25/1530Z D. 27.4N 96.9W E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2030Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
  15. Yes, i think so as well, just being a bit cautious. RI up to landfall is a very high probability. We could be looking at a cat 2 at LF.
  16. Infrared is showing a warm spot near the center
  17. A couple of days ago a tornado hit the NE part of the metro area. It was a confirmed EF-2 twister. 3 people died, and there was significant damage. The affected area is more of an industrial zone. It was the first record of a direct hit of a tornado in Monterrey. There have been close calls before, but no direct hits.
  18. 24 hours rainfall, as reported near the airport, 507mm (20 inches)... Slight rain at the moment, and not big accumulations are expected, although the next few 2-3 days we are still expecting precipitation.
  19. "Wimpy" Fernand has dumped 10" IMBY and counting.
  20. Around 14+ hours non stop rain around MBY today. I estimate around 6-7" have fell, and it's raining cats and dogs out there attm.
  21. Just like in last November, and last winter as well, strato snow (low level cold dome, with overrunning warm, relatively moist air) was seen at around 1300m+ a couple of days ago. Pretty uncommon occurrences, that have become more frequent these last 2 winters. By Saturday we expect highs in the mid 90s. Not even Vivaldi executed his Four Seasons so fast.