wxmx

Looks like a well defined LLC

El Niño & +AMO ... but the lack of significant below normal areas is quite something.

Source

Looking at the models/ensembles, the stronger/earlier development, the farther right it goes, looks like a good example of beta drift.

Officially a cat 2 - 85 kts hurricane, with 967mb central pressure.

968mb extrapolated, 85 kts SFMR. It will probably be upgraded to cat 2

Visible imagery. Sunset are the beer googles of hurricanes.

Hopefully before sunset. Would be a very photogenic image of Grace

Shear has abated some, to around 10-15 kts. Looks like it gained a bit of latitude during the convective explosion, but not much. Now looks like Tecolutla may be ground zero. If trends continue we can speculate on a major at landfall.

Diana 1990 and Gert 1993 are possible analogs to strength and landfall location. They both caused record flooding in the area.

Yeah, no cyclone is match to the Sierra Madre. The bigger and meaner, the more dramatic the fall. Only thing is all it's juice is squeezed out, causing mudslides and extensive flooding.

Yes, now I have this image in my mind

And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.

Briefly yesterday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al07/al072021.discus.022.shtml?

Three hours old, but that's a pretty good structure. If it can get steady < -70C cloud tops in the eyewall, it can RI.

990mb from dropsonde and 10kts wind. Slowly but steadily intensifying.

989mb extrapolated

Recon supports an upgrade to at least 60 kts, with FL around 74kts and several SFMR obs 60-67 kts.

1002 according to dropsonde

Yes, it has evolved from a classic "9" low, to a more symmetric cyclone, with good outflow in the western semicircle. Most of the core is still over land, and although Jamaica is a bit rugged, the highest peaks are in the eastern portion of the island. It probably still has around 6 hours over land before exiting fully over water. Shear is low, less than 15 knots, and since structure seems to be improving, at least steady strengthening should be expected until landfall in the Yucatan. I don't discard RI, but we will have more info this evening.

Especially in the middle of August

It's even gaining some latitude in the short term, that enhances the probability of Puerto Cabezas/Bilwi being in the northern eyewall, plus the highest surge.

885mb 165 kts

That's because that awesome outflow channel is evacuating the upper levels of the cyclone nicely, forcing strong connection to popup over Gamma. The next 24 hours it'll see the strongest shear, relaxing a bit gradually afterwards