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2pm Advisory has it as a 100 kt Cat 3 hurricane.

959.4 extrapolated MSLP and 97FL/91SFMR in the NE quad. There's a chance it might be downgraded all the way to high end Cat 2

On that I agree.

Visible shows the eye is almost fully offshore now. When recon approached, they got into part of the eye, but winds were still above 20 kts in there. Eye looks big, probably around 30 nm or so. Highest winds were 89FL/87SFMR, but I expect higher winds in the NE quad. My WAG is low end cat 3 right now.

That is now, but Maria's circulation is expected to grow as it gains latitude, while forecasts for Jose show it gradually weakening. Forecasts show that Maria will be the dominant feature, by far, in case of an interaction. 0z Euro and 12z GFS

Eye is still partially inland, but looking at data from recon, pressure is probably up in the 950s

Latest Maria's IKE @11 pm EDT calculated by myself is 46 (up from 38 @5 pm EDT). SDP (Surge Destructive Potential Index), up to 3.7 from 3.4 (out of a max of 6)

Low resolution

Radius or diameter?...maybe you are both measuring the same thing.

It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked"

TIKE is just the sum of IKE during the TC lifespan. Similar to ACE http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00349.1

Time is not a variable taken into account by IKE. It's a compact storm, that's why it's "low". Andrew's IKE was around 20 at peak and Charley's around 10.

No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory

How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2

I guess my point is that storms with a lot lower SS rating have had a similar IKE. Gotcha. My point with that statement was to show skepticism at the 60TJ IKE figure. My own calculations point to around 40TJ

No I did not. Just responding to the last sentence, to not create confusion that 60 IKE is like the max a hurricane can get. I'm sure you know that's not even close to the max. Not sure what you are talking about. I'm comparing IKE when the mentioned historic storms were at their max IKE.

Can't really do a "hurricanes with ike around x are so and so." It takes into account a cyclone's size. Did you follow the links? You have to input data related to size

You can calculate it yourself: http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/ikeCalculator/IkeCalculator.php You can fill in the data with the latest Forecast Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/192042.shtml? The only data missing is the Rmax, which is the radius of maximum winds. It's not that important for results, but I calculated about 6-7 nm. Not sure where the 60TJ came from, I think the standard is to use the IKE TS, and I only get an IKE of around 38, which is double of Andrew's, for example. Hurricanes with IKE around 60 are like Camille or Ike.

148FL/139SFMR, 912.7mb extrapolated during the last pass. Comparing to previous pass, it looks like it's down to around 914mb, which was the lowest for Irma.

It looks to me like a secondary eyewall is there. It will take some time to constrict the inner eyewall

I don't know, it seems pretty vulnerable...prone to surge, a very fragile airport location (in a barrier island)...and Blue Mountains did nothing during Gilbert...it even wobbled in the worst way possible towards Kingston. A place like Montego Bay looks much more protected. There have been plenty cyclones moving around Kingston in late season, coming from the SW, it's just that they have been relatively weak.

That's right. Obviously it also depends on the storm intensity and size...a larger, stronger storm from the south, would trump a smaller cane from the "ideal" direction. Drz1111 made a good point about cities being established on the protected side of an island/peninsula. Also, a good deal of coastal cities prone to cyclone hits were first built a bit inland and in higher terrain. There are exceptions, of course, and most exceptions are in the CONUS