olafminesaw

15/8/4

They need to work on their map legibility

The hires models are showing a band setting up and training over one area somewhere in the Piedmont. Wherever it gets stuck is going to get pounded with at least 2-4" through tommorow morning. As of now concensus seems to put the bullseye somewhere in between the Triad and Triangle up to around Roanoke

Might as well make a thread. Get your paddle.

I'm surprised RAH hasn't issued a FFW yet. The NAM would bring storm totals to the 6-8" mark

As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns

Wonky

Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:

Yup

Interesting how they cluster in a line from Texas to South Carolina

It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.

I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning

Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough