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olafminesaw

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  1. Meanwhile GSO has hit 97 already tying yesterday's high which was the hottest day since 2015. We have a legitimate chance of hitting 100 for the first time since 2012 (although more likely temps will stall out at 98/99). With much more reasonable dew points, our heat index is also 97.
  2. Seems like dew points have been running a good bit higher than yesterday's forecast, especially from the triangle East. Temps meanwhile are if anything a little ahead of schedule.
  3. The precip distribution actually ended up being fairly uniform surprisingly enough, but the precip cutoff was just a bit further East than modeled (we were living on the edge anyhow). Thankfully we got the heavy rain last Sunday that put a dent in the drought
  4. Seems to be a big of low level subsidence that is inhibiting the development of heavier precip across the triad. We may end up underperforming unless we can get some better lift.
  5. Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41
  6. YTD heat index values confirm that this has been an unusually warm start to summer.
  7. I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks.
  8. Geography dictates that almost any system coming into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs
  9. This happens a lot, where the only way for the core to tighten after becoming disorganized is frictional effect in the few hours before landfall
  10. Treasure beach and surrounding areas may get hit the hardest, a big blowup of convection in that area, and some potential to take a step north.
  11. Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain
  12. Bizarre looking, never seen such a sheared looking hurricane with such a healthy looking core
  13. Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.
  14. I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me)
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