olafminesaw

I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning

Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough

The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet

Good tends on the HRRR in terms of QPF for N and W, FWIW

Yeah, definitely seems to align with models trending towards less moisture pushing North. It should help us though if a good band does move through early on.

And the 12z NAM confirms this

Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away

Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN

Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable

The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.

The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.

Euro takes a step North

The HRW models all came north from 0z

Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.