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olafminesaw

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  1. Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days
  2. Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable
  3. As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
  4. A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
  5. Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5
  6. No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well.
  7. The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped
  8. To beat the dead horse, the ICON looks way different at H5 than the other models
  9. Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless.
  10. This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
  11. I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
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