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olafminesaw

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About olafminesaw

  • Birthday 08/05/1995

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    Mt. Lebanon PA/Newport News VA

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  1. From the WPC heavy rainfall discussion, flash flooding a concern again today: PWs near 2 inches (2.5 standard deviations above normal) and modest deep-layer instability should support organized convection along and ahead of the boundary. Lift will be enhanced by a pre-frontal mid-level shear axis and broadly diffluent flow between the retrograding upper ridge and trough moving across east-central Canada. Meanwhile, the uptick in sw-wsw low level flow ahead of the surface front (25-30 kts) will foster backbuilding convection and cell training, especially over the Slight risk region later this afternoon and evening when the low-level inflow exceeds and becomes more parallel to the 850-300 mb mean wind (Corfidi vectors in opposite direction of the low-level inflow, thus bolstering upwind propagation). In addition, much of the Slight risk area (especially western PA and eastern OH) has lower FFG given the wet antecedent soils. In fact, the latest (00Z) HREF 40 km neighborhood probabilities of 3 hourly QPF exceeding the FFG peak between 50-60% across far eastern OH and western PA between 21-00Z this afternoon and evening.
  2. olafminesaw

    Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    It's no surprise there's flash flooding in texas with moisture being pulled from the pacific, the Caribbean, and right off the extra warm gulf
  3. olafminesaw

    Post-Alberto

    Since the thread is slow, I thought I'd post the impossible feat cooked up the the hires NAM: https://imgur.com/a/YCEku9J
  4. Yet another Arabian peninsula landfall, it's looking rather impressive on satellite and radar.
  5. olafminesaw

    April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Why do you have such a flat roof? It looks like enough snow weight that I'd be nervous, although I have no idea what tolerances they have.
  6. olafminesaw

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest

    Thanks. This is my peak in life I guess. It's all downhill from here .
  7. olafminesaw

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    It snowed pretty good for about half an hour here. I'd call that a win in April (despite all the model shenanigans).
  8. olafminesaw

    April 7-8 snow event

    The trajectory and evolution of the low is similar, PWAT values are similar. It just doesn't make sense to me. Particularly Richmond and SE VA.
  9. olafminesaw

    April 7-8 snow event

    Massive change with respect to the precip field. It came out late too. Seems fishy to me.
  10. olafminesaw

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    I don't like the trend towards a slower Arctic front. Ideally we have a slow, strong storm, and speed up the front. The track's great though, so you never know. Once it hits 35 degrees or so, precipitation type is going to be hard to predict.
  11. olafminesaw

    April Banter

    So this is where we discuss models and stuff, right? Because the only other thread I see is just dumpster fire.
  12. olafminesaw

    April 7-8 snow event

    Props to the UKMET (probably).
  13. olafminesaw

    April 7-8 snow event

    The GFS looks pretty identical so far, maybe a touch North.
  14. olafminesaw

    April 7-8 snow event

    A strung out mess like the NAM would be a disappointment for most. Waiting for cold air and meh rates while the sun is burning through the clouds would suck.
  15. olafminesaw

    April 7-8 snow event

    Quality contribution.
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