olafminesaw

Definitely not out of the question that the system could bring snow showers to the area, most likely just in the high elevations, but you never know with the cold air mass aloft. It will probably be too dry east of the mountains with that storm track though, after the frontal passage

The Low of 16 at Sanford is really impressive. Could be a record for the month of November, but I can't find that data.

GSO dropped into the teens for the first time since the day after Christmas 2022. The average first date for the low to drop below twenty is Dec 14th

It's a bit of an outlier, but it does seem we will only have opportunities on 2-3 quick moving systems over the next 10 days. Some are promising however and it seems that rainfall is most likely to fall in the .75-1.75" range in that timeframe based on ensemble consensus.

Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control

I love days like this every once in a while, a chilly all day rain. The 12z HRRR indicates we should receive 2-3" across the triad

Starting to finally look like a wet period upcoming

An Interesting look at the end of the 12z Euro run

Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've gotten the past 6 weeks or so

The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well

No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January!

Some signs of moisture in the 4-10 day period

On the other hand...

More rain to come after the run ends. This would certainly be a drought buster