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About olafminesaw
- Birthday 08/05/1995
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Greensboro NC
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
My weeds sure are happy! Haven't really had any significant drought here since moving here in 2018. I like the rainy periods this time of year. If nothing else, it keeps the house comfortable without having to run the AC -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
The only interesting weather in the CONUS upcoming is the potent front in about 5 days. The GFS has about 500 miles to go from single digits in Wyoming to near 80 degrees in central Kansas. Of course it will not deliver meaningful arctic air to this side of the country. Because why would it? -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Some signs of a few non-accumulating pity flakes Saturday evening from the ULL. The really shocking thing is we haven't even had more than 30 minutes of frozen precip of any kind during the snow drought. I'm sure the same can't be said of the 90s drought. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
You'll be back on March 12th, when the Pacific finally relaxes and we're on our way to 33 and rain. Just you wait! -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Eh, the mean is a near perfect track and still, the probabilities aren't great. The overall setup is still rather poor. Still, we might luck into something -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
May happy hour be happy for once. Hard to stomach the big three indicies being favorable, including a 3 std dev negative AO resulting in the same old la Nina pattern. But I prefer to focus on the fact that we have a storm to track that isn't dead yet. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Average out the 12z and 18z and you get great storm for many. Good run considering suppression from the EPS -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Also of note, the models are trending towards a quick reload after the system to not really deviate from a favorable pattern. Of course we will be fighting an uphill battle with climo at that stage but it's also not necessarily do or die for the PD storm -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
The GFS looks much more like the EPS than the Euro OP. Sustained source of cold air aloft and multiple opportunities for wave development in the WAA region. Sometimes moisture can over perform in these setups far away from any kind of low pressure development. Knoxville scored big from WAA moisture last month even though they were thought to be on the dry side of the storm. Ideally we need to have the northern stream energy not interfere too much for this to work. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
To me GFS looks much better through 168. Better stream interaction. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Last night's EPS had like 3-4 waves it's trying to resolve. Kinda a good thing because with a big amped up storm we always flip to rain/ice. Moisture riding the boundary is our path to a big storm as yesterday's 12z GFS depicted. Having to rely on a well timed phase does make me nervous, but that's just winter in the South -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Interesting how the ensembles have consistently much more suppressed than the OP. Thankfully the Euro is nearly in range and can hopefully give us a somewhat clearer picture.