olafminesaw

The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.

A sharp turn back to the right now per tracker

Probably just a wobble, but more likely to be closer to Bradenton at landfall.

I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017

Funky things happening in the eye, but does seem to be moving ENE right now (almost due East). Really hard to determine movement with the ongoing structural changes.

Much larger eyewall evident on radar

https://x.com/IMCFTraveller/status/1844017969468432551 Confirmed tornado earlier

The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards.

I actually wonder if the ERC is nearly complete. This image was as of a couple hours ago

Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield.

Wind field starting to expand a bit

Is that one massive feeder band? Or another feature.

Also been moving south a bit the past couple hours away from the dry air and shear, probably the biggest reason for the rapid improvement

The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll