olafminesaw

I guess an asymmetric storm can increase the flood threat because it focuses all the moisture on a smaller area.

GFS Trends over the past two days

That's exactly what Levi was talking about in his update last night. Time will tell if convection can develop to the point where the dry air won't penetrate the core.

I'm sure their reasoning is to err on the side of too strong so people take it seriously. They are usually quite resistant to decreasing forecast intensity, which is why I think they're better off starting with a very conservative forecast and working up from there. And I'm sure it's been discussed to death, but adding some kind of overall impact scale would help (although the media seems on top of the flood threat this time around)

A fairly aggressive forecast. There's seems to have been a noticeable shift the past couple years by the NHC to forecast intensity based on model consensus, even a little on the high side, rather than starting conservative and working up from there.

Flash flooding in New Orleans this morning, 5-7" radar estimates centered over downtown. Not a good way to lead up to the storm.

Pretty good winds with the main line. I would guess mid 50s and got some long sustained gusts. On the south side of Greensboro. I was stupid enough to leave my windows cracked even though I knew the rain was coming. Parked perpendicular to the winds too.

A steady downpour, GSO reported .96" in the past hour

It's starting to get that firehose look, aimed straight at the mountains. Meanwhile, further north we've been getting on and off sun with CAPE rising. I'm dubious the northern Piedmont will be the focus for the heavy rainfall until perhaps later tonight, but any slow moving cells will have some fuel to work with.

Hope you're a good swimmer

No drought concerns heading into the start of Summer

It weakened quite a bit. Must have hit a pocket of higher instability earlier

That's a new record for CAE, beating the previous record of 3 days of 100+ in 1953. And the second most number of 90+ days on record for AVL. Greensboro's 7 days of 90+ fell three days short of the record, as did Raleigh's 8 days

Found this on the Greensboro subreddit taken on Hope St. Road: