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About olafminesaw

  • Birthday 08/05/1995

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    Greensboro NC

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  1. I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning
  2. Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough
  3. The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet
  4. Good tends on the HRRR in terms of QPF for N and W, FWIW
  5. Yeah, definitely seems to align with models trending towards less moisture pushing North. It should help us though if a good band does move through early on.
  6. Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away
  7. Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
  8. Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable
  9. The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.
  10. The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.
  11. Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.