olafminesaw

Going back to April has been defined by feast or famine

We went from the 3rd wettest May to the 7th driest June to already the 11th wettest July. With today's rain we may climb into the top 5 for July as well. Talk about weather whiplash!

Was woken last night by heavy rain. Nearest rain gauge is picked up .74 in 40 minutes. Not a single 90 degree day on the 7 day forecast!

I mean TBF, a lot of the county did get the split. But I feel your pain

Storms just firing just south of the VA border along the outflow boundary formed by the morning MCS. Will be interesting to watch and see if that boundary continues to develop and move south.

This would be what happens

Meanwhile GSO has hit 97 already tying yesterday's high which was the hottest day since 2015. We have a legitimate chance of hitting 100 for the first time since 2012 (although more likely temps will stall out at 98/99). With much more reasonable dew points, our heat index is also 97.

Seems like dew points have been running a good bit higher than yesterday's forecast, especially from the triangle East. Temps meanwhile are if anything a little ahead of schedule.

The precip distribution actually ended up being fairly uniform surprisingly enough, but the precip cutoff was just a bit further East than modeled (we were living on the edge anyhow). Thankfully we got the heavy rain last Sunday that put a dent in the drought

Seems to be a big of low level subsidence that is inhibiting the development of heavier precip across the triad. We may end up underperforming unless we can get some better lift.

Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41

YTD heat index values confirm that this has been an unusually warm start to summer.

I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks.

Geography dictates that almost any system coming into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs

Big eye. Might take longer to tighten up/ deepen.