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About olafminesaw

- Currently Viewing Topic: February Medium/Long Range Thread
- Birthday 08/05/1995
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Greensboro NC
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Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days
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As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
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A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
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Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5
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No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well.
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The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped
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Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless.
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This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
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I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
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