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About olafminesaw
- Birthday 08/05/1995
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Greensboro NC
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In the latest drought monitor, 70% of NC is at least in the abnormally dry category. Also notable, 87% of the contiguous US is under at least abnormally dry which is the highest on record going back to 2000
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What an absolute unit, the outer eyewall is about 300 miles across. That's about from Jacksonville FL to the NC border
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
It's been nice to not have to run HVAC for the most part at least... The 0z GEFS had less than .5" for the western Piedmont/mountains over the next two weeks. Don't think I've ever seen totals that low for that long of a timeframe. -
The only saving grace is I feel like winds have been dead calm the past couple weeks. And while humidity levels have been low they have not been exceptionally so. There's a low spot in my yard where the water drains that has turned into a bit of a jungle. It actually still has some moisture at the roots.
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Looks like some decent ensemble agreement on some rain around the 4th or 5th. Nothing crazy, but hopefully that keeps things from getting too dry until we can get our usual pattern shift sometime in December
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The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.
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A sharp turn back to the right now per tracker
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Probably just a wobble, but more likely to be closer to Bradenton at landfall.
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I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017
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Funky things happening in the eye, but does seem to be moving ENE right now (almost due East). Really hard to determine movement with the ongoing structural changes.
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https://x.com/IMCFTraveller/status/1844017969468432551 Confirmed tornado earlier
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The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards.