olafminesaw

Really impressive structures with the cells all along the VA. Just not enough spin to drop tornadoes (for long anyway) but a couple nasty looking hooks.

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

Good people, great smiles!

Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?

If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other

Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection

Thankfully, not the tightest of couplets on the west tuscaloosa storm, for now

Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?

Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)

For those wondering, blacksburg radar should be back up and running this evening and Raleigh should be back up by the end of Wednesday