olafminesaw

Meanwhile the Wpac, which has hit peak climo, had been completely quiet. It must be near record low at the moment. Does anyone know if the two basins often have an inverse correlation?

Looks not half bad on radar

Seems in the Triad we'll get stuck between any PRE to our. NW and he bulk of the precip to the east. I wanted a good rain storm...oh well.

It tries to close off the eye, but looks more lopsided/weakens some as it approaches FL. Also stalls out before the turn

Why is it that the clouds on the west side of the storm appear to be getting sheared away from the storm as they expand outward, when the area of shear on maps is NE of the storm? Edit: on second glance, it's maybe just pulsing?

And really far west, down near the SC border. It seems the stronger solutions end up further East

anecdotally, the probability of an OTS solution with minimal impact to land always seems to be higher than the guidance envelope would suggest when hurricanes run up the east coast. We're in a range where major shifts can definitely still happen, and my money would be on an eventual East shift.

Huge uptick in intensity on the GFS

What an absolute unit. The SW corner of PR is getting waterboarded right now. Thankfully not super heavily populated, because there's no light at the end of the tunnel right now.

Seems reasonable

If the NHC track is correct I can't see it being any stronger than low end hurricane when it gets to Florida. Probably nothing more than a big plate of scrambled eggs

Probably because it tends to reach criteria a lot for the region

Today or tomorrow might be our first 90 degree day in Greensboro, which would be our fourth latest on record behind: July 2nd (1983) July 5th (2017) July 18th (1972)

I have a feeling that's exactly how this summer is going to go