olafminesaw

Nasty

If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).

This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0:

Apparently this was shot at Tyndall AFB. Pretty sureal. https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OyJAQWOqyoJb?t=6s

3" per hour rain rates

Yeah, it's a little out of it's range though. If it sticks to it's guns through 6z, then I'm all in for 60-70 ( east of the triad anyway).

And when you get run to run consistency from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.

I don't think I've seen a troll have this much success since way back around the time the internet troll was invented.

It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess.

Most are weak, but wow, what a lot of couplets.

Quiet around here, but perhaps what will in many ways be the worst part of the storm, still to come.

Winds should remain more or less where they are right now for a long while. Flooding rains may be a concern, but totals over 6" should stay to our south and the higher terrain.