olafminesaw

First wedge of the year! (Yay) Easier to scour out this time of year, but still. Wouldn't be surprised to see temps stay in the mid 70s today in the Triad

No thanks What a sad system

Seems typically with a large, tilted, fast moving system you tend to see more wind field expansion than an increase in max winds. But I suppose possible the eyewall could reorganize somewhat

*sad cricket noises* Anyway, with the MCS that moved through, I doubt we will hit our forecast high of 86 in the triad. Muggy muggy though

125 115 940 Cocodrie

Hilly terrain, up to about 1000 ft, should halt intensification somewhat for at least a few hours. But hard to believe it will have much of an impact long term

The GFS had been pumping out lots of gulf systems a couple days back as well. The signal is there

GFS at 33 a tou ch east of 18z. heading for a landfall just east of LI i think

Because it's the first model to run and addicts need their fix. Kinda like the SREF for snowstorms. I much prefer looking at the 3km version if I want my fix of complete nonsense

Certainly true that it's not yet aligned. But the center is under the edge of the convection and even though convective bursts don't last forever, it should help the system align. Shear is definitely lessened

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wow, last few frames convection really started pushing north over the LLC. May be all systems go at this point

You see this all the time as Typhoons recurve past Japan. They normally do ramp down pretty quick, but can bring pretty strong winds while looking pathetic on IR

Seems to support FL wind data. I would go 70 mph

Looks like there's some Saharan dust on pushing in from the South East of the circulation. Any chance it gets ingested and effects the system?