olafminesaw

Yeah, moderate as a 4/5 on the scale makes no sense. Moderate has always been a significant severe threat, despite the connotation of the word, and even when they only had three categories was probably a poor choice for communicating threat level to the public. So when they forced in a category between slight and moderate they had to choose something that meant "relatively significant", which sounds more severe than "moderate". But in a perfect world this would make more sense: Minimal (green) Slight (yellow) Moderate (orange) High (red) Extreme (magenta) In reality this would be super confusing to everyone to make a switch, so I kinda feel like they should just refer to the color or number as a threat level.

First severe threat In a while, primarily for hail

No mention yet of smoke in the RAH disco yet. Should be impacting our area most Wed-Friday. Mostly high level smoke but probably some impact to air quality/visibility.

At GSO airport the total for the month has risen to 5.19", with 2.96" coming over the past three days. This puts us ahead of average by about 4" on the year, well on our way to yet another wetter than normal year. At this time in 2018 (the year of the all time rainfall record), Greensboro was actually slightly below normal rainfall.

Same here pretty much, on the edge of the good stuff, but it added up. The plus side is it gives the ground time to soak it all up.

I think just a bit of unforecasted shear did the trick. But for now, it's stayed just east of me. Surprise surprise

Yeah, I've never seen the totality, so I'll do what it takes to see it in 2024. Last chance in a long time

Since the weather is as boring as can be, here's a fascinating article about cloud cover climatology for the 2024 eclipse: https://eclipsophile.com/2024tse/

They did a good job, choosing the east side of guidance. Consensus of the models was for about 2-2.5"

Hmm... Interesting indeed

https://twitter.com/LyftGyft/status/1412898761123192834?s=20

Looking good

Haha, and I expect them to be right too! We've found so many creative ways of having boring weather around here lately

I wouldn't be surprised if wind gust end up higher for eastern NC than they were for most of the Florida coast

Let the hallucinations commence! Seriously though, it's going to be a real close call for Tampa proper, saint Petersburg/Clearwater will bear the brunt of the wind I think. Max surge is just about locked in for the bay. Hard to believe the worst is still hours away for Tampa, as close as it appears

Yeah, he decided last minute, so he's rushing to get to the landfall point

Hurricane warnings issued for Tampa and up the coast. Elsa is now forecasted to reach hurricane strength very soon

Nothing to support an upgrade in the most recent pass, 60 kt max winds and pressure holding steady

I figure they will be conservative and call it a 70 mph TS, even if there is reasonable evidence to upgrade, for this very reason. They don't want to have to downgrade a few hours later and confuse the public.

You can see on visible, the convection being sheared to the east. If anything, this enhances the flood threat, especially inland.

Is this the LLC?

This feels like one of those reddit April fool's things. Like, it's a practical joke, where we all descend into madness trying to figure out how to get points and badges and why certain new members move up the ranks faster and have special powers.

We are all newbies on this blessed day

Seems like Elsa will be crossing land at the optimal strength for surviving landfall well. Big differences though between a track to the south (less weakening) and North (more weakening)

Wow, 7 degrees colder than the airport.