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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. BWI: 8.7" IAD: 9.9" DCA: 6.4" RIC: 6.3" SBY: 5.8"
  2. Even with the inevitable movement of the band north (and again back south), you should get another 12-18" through Sunday
  3. That's wild. Truth stranger than fiction. I can picture the trailer for: Sharknado 14, lake effect....
  4. If the HRRR is to be believed, you will double that by the end of the storm
  5. Seems based on the GEFS & EPS, the pattern flips to torch right around the 1st of December. Right on schedule!
  6. Pretty impressive low at GSO of 24. It was 27 at 4:30 and 4:45 and dropped 3 degrees and back up in those 15 minutes. Noticeable cold pockets north of the airport as well on my way to work this morning, about 3-4 degrees colder than near the airport.
  7. I feel like this is probably not quite right...
  8. The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas
  9. I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently
  10. The 12zHAFS nailed the evolution today if you flip through the IR frames. Like, shocking really. Gets convection ramping up again around midnight
  11. Recon finds a pressure of 980 mb or so and supports winds of 55-60 kts
  12. 45 kt surface winds recorded 200 miles or so West of the center (from the upper level recon flight), this thing is really starting to expand
  13. Indeed, looks pretty darn good all of a sudden
  14. It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field
  15. Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size
  16. The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development
  17. The 4 pm discussion said it's still moving westward. I will say, watching the LLC in the short-term can be misleading, but still seems odd
  18. It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.
  19. The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall
  20. Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look
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