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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Really impressive structures with the cells all along the VA. Just not enough spin to drop tornadoes (for long anyway) but a couple nasty looking hooks.
  2. If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though
  3. Good people, great smiles!
  4. Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?
  5. If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless
  6. Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%
  7. I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other
  8. Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection
  9. Thankfully, not the tightest of couplets on the west tuscaloosa storm, for now
  10. Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?
  11. Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)
  12. For those wondering, blacksburg radar should be back up and running this evening and Raleigh should be back up by the end of Wednesday
  13. This sounding is just....bonkers
  14. Sorry, I was in the wrong thread
  15. Kinda ironic that suppression only becomes a problem when march rolls around
  16. When the NAVGEM is all you've got...
  17. Just need DCA to be the jackpot on a March snowstorm. How hard could it be?
  18. Definitely a classic case of radiation cooling with clear skies and calm winds. Low spots significantly cooler. Made for some heavy frost and icy spots from runoff. Today and tomorrow are classic coat in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon weather.
  19. 1031 high in the ohio valley with a low developing in Louisiana on the Euro. Checks chip stack....shoves all in Edit: welp, high slides east and another ice storm for us (and yes, I realize models are mostly useless at this range)