olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Not way out in fantasy range anymore
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Last few runs of the Euro AI have just been comical
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Euro vs EL nino climo. I think slightly below normal starting in May is a good bet. Which honestly isn't the worst outcome to keep the drought from accelerating.
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More like :
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King Euro AI would have to agree
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Ties the all time DSCI record for the SE region previously set 12-18-2007
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How many inches in my back yard?
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Somewhat lower odds of a washout in the 10-14 day timeframe we are watching, but odds continue to increase for at least some rainfall
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Glued to every model cycle from here on out, we can reel this fantasy range rainstorm in
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The Mariana islands gets just about as many high end typhoons as anywhere else I nthe world. Saipan took a direct hit from a cat 5 back in 2018. I am guessing that Saipan didn't get much above cat 2 winds from this, with maybe some higher gusts. Good timing with the ERC. -
Some signs of a pattern change, but I fear this will just keep getting kicked back
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My forecast for Saturday is 94 with a dewpoint in the low 50s, flash drought conditions under any circumstances
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I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change
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Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge
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It also is peaking earlier than normal, so may be coming down towards moderate by Winter. Hard to say
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Probably somewhere in-between, although there's not a lot of analogs for a strong summer El Nino
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Yeah not looking good. Ensembles not much better
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Oof
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Lock it in
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