olafminesaw

What's this feature showing up on long range radar? The dry line?

High risk expanded south slightly and wind driven moderate risk expanded east

I've never seen a storm with such high DBZ values not get Severe warned. Quite odd! Must be just small hail.

The CPC released the updated summer forecast last week. Probabilities below for the Piedmont: Temp: Highest 10% of years: 14.3% Above average: 45.3% Near average: 34.7% Below average: 19.9% Lowest 10% of years: 3.6% Precip: Highest 10% of years: 15.4% Above average: 43.6% Near average: 32.5% Below average: 23.8% Lowest 10% of years: 5.8%

About as strong of wording as you will see say 6 The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area.

Not bad, the warm sunny weather is making me not too jealous of the snow headed your way. I have made peace with summer and hope for some good thunderstorms this spring

My weeds sure are happy! Haven't really had any significant drought here since moving here in 2018. I like the rainy periods this time of year. If nothing else, it keeps the house comfortable without having to run the AC

Pretty much in line with what everyone else was saying:

The only interesting weather in the CONUS upcoming is the potent front in about 5 days. The GFS has about 500 miles to go from single digits in Wyoming to near 80 degrees in central Kansas. Of course it will not deliver meaningful arctic air to this side of the country. Because why would it?

Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year

Some signs of a few non-accumulating pity flakes Saturday evening from the ULL. The really shocking thing is we haven't even had more than 30 minutes of frozen precip of any kind during the snow drought. I'm sure the same can't be said of the 90s drought.

You'll be back on March 12th, when the Pacific finally relaxes and we're on our way to 33 and rain. Just you wait!

Sigh...

Eh, the mean is a near perfect track and still, the probabilities aren't great. The overall setup is still rather poor. Still, we might luck into something

May happy hour be happy for once. Hard to stomach the big three indicies being favorable, including a 3 std dev negative AO resulting in the same old la Nina pattern. But I prefer to focus on the fact that we have a storm to track that isn't dead yet.

Average out the 12z and 18z and you get great storm for many. Good run considering suppression from the EPS

Also of note, the models are trending towards a quick reload after the system to not really deviate from a favorable pattern. Of course we will be fighting an uphill battle with climo at that stage but it's also not necessarily do or die for the PD storm

The GFS looks much more like the EPS than the Euro OP. Sustained source of cold air aloft and multiple opportunities for wave development in the WAA region. Sometimes moisture can over perform in these setups far away from any kind of low pressure development. Knoxville scored big from WAA moisture last month even though they were thought to be on the dry side of the storm. Ideally we need to have the northern stream energy not interfere too much for this to work.

To me GFS looks much better through 168. Better stream interaction.

Last night's EPS had like 3-4 waves it's trying to resolve. Kinda a good thing because with a big amped up storm we always flip to rain/ice. Moisture riding the boundary is our path to a big storm as yesterday's 12z GFS depicted. Having to rely on a well timed phase does make me nervous, but that's just winter in the South

Interesting how the ensembles have consistently much more suppressed than the OP. Thankfully the Euro is nearly in range and can hopefully give us a somewhat clearer picture.

Yeah not really a great place that's free. Weather.us has limited individual member maps as well as plume graphs for a specified location.

College of dupage doesn't have all the members. I think it's just one member skewing the mean. There's one that drops 2 feet of snow on Montgomery Alabama.