Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+
One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.
models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough
I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side
The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west.
Yep, I will add, the Euro ensembles run at full resolution, so it is very good at eliminating some of the noise around the model wobbles. Moisture has been on the upswing which is huge for the Western half of NC