olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Yep, those two max zones have been showing up on a lot of guidance. Feels familiar (although this time the boom zones will be around an inch)
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Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear
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Hires models conceding to King Hires-RGEM and showing very little moisture East of 77
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We should have known. It can only snow on the weekend
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Wet bulb temp running 4 degrees below forecast at GSO
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We are relying on lift from the WAA to wring moisture out after the frontal passage. Since our system remains weak, it only will produce light precip
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N and West of 85 looking pretty dry. My gut is somewhere between Raleigh/Rocky Mount/Greenville will do well as well as the northern foothills. Hires models this morning have trended in that direction as well
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Can you spot the dry slot?
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Around Valentine's Day features a cutter on all models. Seems like some potential for CAD/messy ice situation depending on track/ridge placement. Also could feature borderline severe if the low tracks across New England instead of PA
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The latest GRAF is also super light with precip. I don't think that the triad is going to get more than a dusting, based on the trend on the short range models
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Sad trombone noises
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Speaking of which, the HRRR joins many other models in painting the southern band directly over Guilford county. Schrödinger's snow band if you will.
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Putting all my money on wherever the HRRR doesn't have the band
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The hires RGEM killed it on the last two storms. Especially the one two weekends ago, but here's a run from Friday that did fairly well as well
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RAP illustrates my thoughts. Need to be able to get moisture and the cold to push far enough south, before cold/dry air shuts off the moisture. Moisture North of the warm front may be somewhat limited but concentrated in a band or two that may over perform. The RAP is a bit further north than the rest of guidance, so I would expect the green zone to set up right along I85
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Some pretty insane banding showing up on the hires RGEM
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Actually I would say Eastern Tennessee is the King of the warm nose and North Carolina is the court Jester
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One reason we are seeing less potential in NC is a small warm nose showing up on short range models. It was looking like a changeover to snow at around 35 yesterday but now right around freezing for the changeover with some ZR mixed in
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Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick
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Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right
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The Euro AI has been very consistent in showing a maximum along the VA border
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The AI GFS looks nice too
