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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Not the biggest fan of this trend, although I could just as easily see temps crashing faster than the HRRR is depicting
  2. Definitely favor Short-range models from here on out
  3. I've been burned to many times with, "the rates will be amazing" and get drizzle instead. Works pretty well for coastal regions, Piedmont is crapshoot even with unanimous model support. There's my unscientific opinion.
  4. It takes time for the low to get stacked and really start generating cold air. By the time the low gets cranking, it's at the coast and dry air is pushing in behind. So the triad will sit on the tightrope between the moist air pushing north and the backend of the system
  5. Definitely makes me nervous. The mesoscale banding won't be so uniform though, could see half an inch and three inches 20 miles apart.
  6. This model often gets overlooked, but I think it often does well
  7. When I see this, I don't for a second think: winter storm incoming
  8. It seems at 500mb, the ens support the op, so I would guess there are a few outliers that have a more GFS-like solution, while the majority are weak with hardly any snow for anyone
  9. The Ukmet is quite suppressed. Pretty good place to be at this range.
  10. Yep, need more blocking for sure. Feels like this year there either isn't enough blocking or the storm hardly develops at all, to where there isn't even really any legit thread the needle opportunities.
  11. Honestly, his maps would be really solid if he just cut his totals in half. It's like he posts his max potential map every storm by accident, or something
  12. Ugh, stuck in the subsidence between the blobs. Even so, snowing very lightly.
  13. This has been the most suspense for half an inch of snow I've ever experienced. I also grew up in snowier climates, so, this is especially tortuous.
  14. You can see the deform band start to form/fill in. Hoping for a few hours of moderate snow at this point
  15. I just would like to observe, the HRRR has been a pile of hot garbage. The WRF- ARW has done probably the best so far
  16. Hires NAM had like a 6 hour dry slot for the triad. Otherwise decent though
  17. RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.
  18. This map created midday yesterday is starting to look awfully reasonable (if a bit aggressive)
  19. For those stuck in the dry slot, could be be a pretty frustrating event, looks promising to start, get a dusting, then hours of drizzle/light snow. For those at the pivot point, it could be pretty epic: a couple inches on the front end, then possibly mixing with sleet, then a couple more inches as the deform band rolls through. The triad could go either way at this point, but 1"+ is feeling pretty solid right now
  20. Hires nam is blah on the front end (outside the mountains), brings the goods on the back end.