It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1"
Something to watch, the warm nose currently isn't super strong, which kinda makes sense due to the favorable storm track. Dynamic cooling may help flip some areas along the changeover line back to snow when heavier rates/better dynamics set up. Need to watch the wraparound for a changeover as well
As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)