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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Yeah it's great to see that we could get accumulating snow even with the less amplified solutions knowing that a more amplified look would increase rates and crash temps even faster. That is, if the trough can stay sufficiently far south
  2. Of course, Kuchera will be more accurate, but that's still pretty sweet. I hope somehow Raleigh gets 3"+ just for the memes
  3. Yep! Hard to ignore the trends, going to come down to temps/rates at this point
  4. I don't disagree with where this is going. Everything has to go perfectly. I think up along the VA border may do okay with this event, especially if trends towards a more amped system continue
  5. GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct
  6. It always seems like this would happen growing up in Northern Virginia. We'd get a big snow and then a few days later a sneaky little system that uptrended at the last minute to drop a few inches
  7. The 6z GFS made a big change up top. Not far from something halfway decent
  8. Holy cow, just incredible temp swings at GSO
  9. Euro AI is pretty amped. Definitely trending towards a little snow, although temps will be borderline for accumulation
  10. Me after getting the deformation band but checking every model run hoping for a little wet snow
  11. Some in that Western max had over 20:1 ratios. GSO reported .4" liquid
  12. Feel pretty happy with the map I made last night based on how things are currently playing out
  13. Deformation band about to swing through too should be 1"per hour rates easy
  14. The RAP hasn't been perfect but it has easily been the best short range model for this storm so far. Consistent on showing the dry slot in the right place and the band from Charlotte extending up to the VA border.
  15. You can see the dry slot begining to shrink, I think Wake county should be getting into it in about 2-3 more hours
  16. Models are notorious for under doing moisture associated with robust ULLs. I think the Western ULL piece will over perform West of 85 and the coastal generally underperform
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