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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough
  2. olafminesaw
    I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west.
  5. olafminesaw
    Ensembles still looking solid.
  6. olafminesaw
    Through dinnertime Friday on the HRRR
  7. olafminesaw
    HRRR starts things off with an Appetizer Friday afternoon
  8. olafminesaw
    EPS should be better as well with more stretching of the NS lobe
  9. olafminesaw
    Just a little extra tilt does a lot of heavy lifting
  10. olafminesaw
    Yeah it cut totals in half in the Triad. Also more in line with It's ensembles
  11. olafminesaw
    GFS a touch flatter. No surprise, as guidance begins to tighten up
  12. olafminesaw
    RGEM looks really nice overall, but particularly for the foothills/NE GA crowd
  13. olafminesaw
    Yep, not massive changes up top but works out to a much better look on the surface.
  14. olafminesaw
    NAM popping a low over Arkansas at hour 33. Are we about to get NAMed?
  15. olafminesaw
    I need more maps with pretty colors injected into my veins stat!
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    12Z EPS also a tough East and drier, but still, widespread 5"+ of snow East of 77
  20. olafminesaw
    Yep, I will add, the Euro ensembles run at full resolution, so it is very good at eliminating some of the noise around the model wobbles. Moisture has been on the upswing which is huge for the Western half of NC
  21. olafminesaw
    Still looking good for a 2-4" type deal of cold powder. Could be more as well depending on if the coastal throws back any moisture
  22. olafminesaw
    Pretty minor adjustments. Of course minor adjustments matter a good deal for the foothills
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems so. Last time this happened it came out on the sites that have the delayed version (tropical tidbits). It comes out all at once once the full run is out, I think around 1:30/2:00
  24. olafminesaw
    .75 QPF across the Eastern 2/3 of North Carolina, for both the GEFS and EPS. Reduced by 25% to get an idea of the footprint of snowfall = 6-10" snowfall at 15:1 ratios. Banding within that broad footprint will allow for 12-18". Some dry slotting may occur West/East of that band where "only" 3-6" falls. The footprint and magnitude of this general consensus will continue to shifts as models try to resolve the Dance of the ULL and developing powerful storm
  25. olafminesaw
    3-6"+feels like a good bet right now. 8-16" is within reach but models still have lots to resolve, so trying to stay reasonable about the more extreme solutions
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