olafminesaw

Canadian also has two back to back storms, the first ice, the second snow

LA Nina starting to flex it's muscles it seems. Makes it much harder to keep storms from cutting. Trends have been positive overnight though, so still watching

Hard not to be optimistic up your way, especially if you're a fan of the mixed precip winter storms.

It seems like in general storms have tended south this winter FWIW

Eh, the GFS has it too, just a little further north. Worth watching trends anyway

Some agreement here

Volatility! These are within a 4 day timeframe

Starting to think there will be an extremely sharp cutoff East of which will get 1"+ and ~30 miles west gets little or nothing. I'm guessing a long or a little east of 85

Seems like the HRRR is depicting ground truth reasonably close so far. Actually 6z was probably a bit to far inland for LA Island corrected at 12z. Doesn't mean we won't get precip further inland in the Carolina's, but it is all to easy to look at virga and think the models are to suppressed with the moisture

I'm a bit concerned about the evening commute in the triad wouldn't take much moisture to cause problems. Wouldn't be surprised to see WWAs issued up to Guilford county sometime this morning. News 2 is not really buying into any snow for Guilford county, guess we'll see!

The clear trends towards a more neutral trough. Probably too late for Raleigh to get into the 1"+ zone, but could be a good storm from Fayetteville to Wilmington

Happy for the Gulf Coast, this will be a once in a generation type storm for many.

Honestly kinda a relief to come to terms with the reality of just flurries to half an inch in these parts. Anything else is gravy! Better than being on the edge right to the end only to be on the outside looking in

I'm not exactly sure, but I think that's the average of the 6z suite

Frankly, hard to ignore at this point

Yeah I do think the many competing pieces of energy adds complexity which tends to favor suppression (think of tropical season when a phase with the trough on models tends not to work out more often than not). At the same time, the expansion of the precip shield due to models failing to account for the mid level warmth sufficiently, pulls the other way allowing many to score even if the more suppressed storm track is what plays out. So the disagreement as to whether the NW trend is legit comes down to this tension between two factors affecting snow totals on a map

I think it's great for long range, not so good for short and medium range.