olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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A bit south/more positive tilt through 69, seems to be a step towards the Euro
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RGEM tilts neutral too late and too far north so it's a late bloomer, best precip over VA by the time the cold air arrives. Axis of best dynamics over DC
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Timing will be key too, if we can get that band of WAA moisture to set up early enough in the AM it will be easier for temps to crash and snow to start accumulating
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The things is, we're in a great spot to thread the needle in terms of model spread. It's just frustrating we have no wiggle room one way or the other and it's trended that way for a days now (even as track/vortex evolution has trended favorable)
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I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end
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My biggest concern is the trend towards the low popping off the coast further north, in a more miller B fashion. This would allow more warm air to migrate inland and best dynamics to stay north of the VA border until the low starts moving more NE. At that point it becomes a cold chasing moisture kind of situation
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It brings the arctic front in late, Eric Webb had mentioned this is a concern for East/central NC. I also noticed it is developing moisture much later/further north (in addition to bringing more moisture West/inland)
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RGEM and ICON start the party off significantly more amped than 18z
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Hard to take it seriously, it's holding the trough way back in Texas while the rest of guidance has it over the central gulf coast
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AI GEFS
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AI models favor this solution with the highest totals in NE NC and a sharp cutoff west of the Triangle
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I have a feeling that while the NW trend is our friend for now, it will become the villain before it is all said and done, at least for those East of 85
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Subtle improvements through 84 on the Euro I think. Hard to say yet if just noise
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The 12z OP was an amplified outlier to it's ensemble to some degree, so it makes sense that the op and mean split the difference and became aligned at 18z
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Boom big increase from 12z
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At 84 the RGEM looks good with respect to the trough orientation, but again, not quite in range
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Third the of weather club: toss the 84 hour NAM in the garbage and wait for the RGEM to run
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I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though
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FWIW the Euro AI looked better than the OP at 500 mb, while the GFS AI generally supports the OP GFS
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Ironically, unless all other models fold to the GFS, warm air aloft could be the savior of many with this system
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Looks like 10-15% support the GFS
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AI GFS Ensembles
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Not a disaster but not a step towards the GFS either.
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Yeah, some big differences in surface low location to resolve. Unclear if along 85 or the coastal plain will be the spot to be just yet
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As does the HRRR. As with the Sunday event, jet stream dynamics coming into play, often only gets picked up by short range models. Not saying something will happen on Thursday, but just something to keep an eye on
