olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The Euro had the same general idea, just didn't quite get it done with the phasing
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A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps
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Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established
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DESI has a phenomenal dashboard that allows you to generate custom graphs and maps for models, including using the national blend of models(below), AI models etc.
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Throwback!
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Yep!
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We've had some, they just haven't panned out.
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Reloads nicely after the 15th as well. Very cold run after the pattern change
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Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)
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I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks
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A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not
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Seems like the sort of pattern where we may get frequent shots at light accumulation but no big storm threat.
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All three major indices favorable (albeit near neutral mid-month), may be hard for models to resolve
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Yeah, as much as the concern has been that cold dumps to our West, it seems like the trend today has been to make any cold air in North America disappear
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Given the -NAO, we would have to really be cursed not to get any cold air in Jan. Linking up the moisture with the cold is of course another matter
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GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm
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Obviously seems like a kick the can situation but beyond the first reshuffle looking good on the AI GEFS
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Yeah, even if PNA developed as advertised yesterday, there is usually a lag before we see impacts. Now that too is in question. Anyone know how PNA works together with Enso? I would think they would be interrelated.
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My wife's home town in Wyoming broke it's record for Christmas eve by 9 degrees and tied the all time December high temp of 65
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Eric webb is one of the best, However he does tend to be a bit reactionary
