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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Heavy bands of rain starting to hit Jamaica
  2. olafminesaw
    No doubt that the Euro has outperformed the GFS on this one, with the NHC being remarkably consistent
  3. olafminesaw
    Anyone have an idea of the construction quality in Kingston? I. Know a lot of these Carribean islands are pretty well constructed cinder block buildings, but poor areas/slums may be vulnerable. Obviously flooding a huge concern regardless
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    Looks like it will get the upgrade to hurricane at 11
  6. olafminesaw
    Maybe an eye showing on radar?
  7. olafminesaw
    I do think that if this rapidly intensifies overnight or Tommorow it is very likely to go through an ERC before landfall on Jamaica. Timing will be key if that is the case, but the conditions support a relatively quick ERC more often than not, so not sure that's a good thing with wind field expansion and wider footprint of flooding rains
  8. olafminesaw
    Recon reporting a much more organized storm this morning. Well defined center, pressure down towards 1002 mb, LLC had been pulled under the robust convection
  9. olafminesaw
    Land interaction actual may help it to wind up at that approach angle, at least for a while. The island is small enough to not choke off the storm too much unless it gets really close
  10. olafminesaw
    Also worth noting the GFS is an outlier against it's own ensembles
  11. olafminesaw
    Actually some consensus starting to emerge. Aside from the stubborn GFS of course
  12. olafminesaw
    The Google models have been really consistent
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil
  15. olafminesaw
    And the Sandhills all the way to near the coast. Just inland from Jaxonville got down into the upper 30s
  16. olafminesaw
    Alas seems pretty paltry West of I95
  17. olafminesaw
    Pretty crazy how closely 2015 matches to this season
  18. olafminesaw
    Could be the first season since 2015 without a land falling US hurricane. Ironic given that 2015 featured Joaquin, which like Imelda was forecasted to hook into the coast from the Bahamas a few days out but exited stage right instead
  19. olafminesaw
    No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI
  20. olafminesaw
    I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed
  21. olafminesaw
    Models haven't really been showing meaningful organization for another 24 hours or so, so we appear to be on track
  22. olafminesaw
    Pretty grim for a mean
  23. olafminesaw
    I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform
  24. olafminesaw
    A bit more towards the stalled solution, with Humberto and Imelda's latitude closer together
  25. olafminesaw
    For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence
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