olafminesaw

Another way to measure our cool start to the warm months:

At GSO, the percentage of years in which the first 90 degree day falls in each month are as follows: March:1.7% April: 18.6% May: 45.8% June: 30.5% July: 3.4% (4 years out of 118) Funnily enough, 2 out of the 4 years that made it to July were 2017 & 2020, and we haven't had a March or April date since 2006. It's going to be really close to making it to July, with a forecast high of 89 on Friday.

Spaghetti plots going to be messy! May have to move away from showing the individual members.

I think that cell moving over North Wilkesboro is going to be the one to watch for the Triad. Hard to say if there will be more spread between cells as the HRRR depicts or if it will eventually form a fragmented line like the hires NAM.

Going to be a couple more hours until storms initiate per the HRRR. Still a weak cap per the meso analysis, although eroded significantly since this morning.

FWIW, I think the latest SPC discussion is a lot less enthusiastic about a higher end threat. Seems like CAPE values are lagging a bit and CAMS have less impressive parameters. Might be the sweet spot where we get some fun storms without having to worry too much about damage.

Most heating will occur after 10 am anyway, with solar noon around 1:15. Lack of shear seems to be the biggest inhibitor out that way.

Actually I think the opposite, cloud cover will linger East of 77, through around lunchtime for the triad (per the HRRR) that may limit CAPE somewhat, but areas west of 77 are about to get full sun.

SPC is definitely highlighting the hail threat, citing the potential for isolated very large hail. The last hatched hail event from SPC was May 23, 2014.

This makes more sense. Cool temps don't prevent foliage. It would have to be consistently dropping below freezing at night for temps to be the cause

Nam sounding looking rather impressive for Monday.

This June has a real possibility of making the top 10 coolest Junes going back to 1903 at GSO, even with the upcoming warmup. At the very least, it should beat out 2003, the coolest of this century.

With the majority of the rain behind us, time to look ahead to Monday to our next severe threat. Not a particularly high ceiling, but looks like it could be an enhanced type day if the timing is right ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats.

Not under a tree, probably like 10 feet from the edge of canopy. I was thinking maybe it collects water and gets blown into the gauge.

Just got a new basic rain gauge recently, reporting over 3.5" on the day. I think that's definitely higher than it should be. Local obs and radar suggest 2-2.5". Any ideas why it's so high? I tried to put it in an opening but we have massive oak trees that surely skew the data.

Strong agreement on what could be the wettest week since 2018.

The GEFS actually ticked north at 12z, but in general the trend has not been our friend. I do think Charlotte and South should get enough rain to mitigate drought concerns. And for them mountains many areas will do well as a result of orographic lift.

Pretty intense looking MCS rolling towards Jackson MS now.

A bullseye of over 20" in 24 hrs NW of Spartanburg

Good model agreement on heavy rainfall next week.

I didn't realize how unprecedented tornado outbreaks were in June for Dixie alley. No part of that region has ever gotten a 10% risk (going back to 2006):

Starting to look a little soggy next week with a cutoff low and plenty of moisture

Just curious, does anyone know what city is pictured in the NWS haze icon?

While the GFS is unrealistic in terms of intensity, I'd be a little concerned about a weak tropical system meandering inland and causing flooding. The 12z & 6Z GFS both support this idea, although I kinda expect the GFS to drop the system altogether at some point.