olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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HRRR holds steady. The sleet fluctuates back and forth over Guilford county for the second half of the storm -
There really aren't any models showing precip before around 5pm, but also these overrunning events tend to start 2-3 hours earlier than modeled (at least as far as light flurry action goes)
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RAH has onset much later than many of the news outlets which are saying 12-3. I am guessing somewhere in between, around 4ish for the triad.
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Those generally come with the changeover, so you should get them eventually
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Snow being reported well south of Atlanta. Meanwhile the NAM...(Which had onset a few hours later)
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HRRR has the sleet line push north quite early but then gets pushed back south when the heavier rates arrive
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It's okay, gotta watch for cavities but throwing back a few apple juices with the boys never hurt anyone
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I gotta say, having moved here from the DC metro, it feels odd getting a winter storm warning for 2-3" of snow!
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It's a game of inches! (Or miles anyway) VA line Archdale Asheboro Greensboro
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Even accounting for the NAM being too far north I would be a bit concerned that this is what it's showing not too long after onset in the triad Weenie phase 2 is here,just 30 minutes later!
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Illustrates the expression ,where you can smell the sleet line is where the heaviest snowfall occurs
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Very reminiscent of 2022. Although that was more like .75"+ of QPF IIRC
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Sleet line moving north as expected, but not before dropping solid snow totals for most
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Kinda what I would expect precip type to look like
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A nasty refreeze likely Saturday night with highs near 40 on Saturday before dipping into the teens Saturday night.
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Be careful with precip type maps! The NAM seems to be overplaying the ZR, this sounding for Raleigh area would likely be sleet, especially with that much lift.
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Latest GRAF is solid https://x.com/AndrewWMBF/status/1877304541500109179
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And I don't the RAP ever has a wheelhouse
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Perhaps 18z will at least stop the bleeding if not start moving back the other way!
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Virga virga virga
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Hmmm
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I actually think dry air is the reason that we will see the mix line further south through evaporative cooling. Or if the moisture is more robust the mix line pushes north sooner, but the front end thump is better. Which is why near and south of 85 snowfall outputs have been similar regardless of QPF totals
