olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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I think part of what we're seeing is both have a similar track/evolution, but the Euro is picking up on a more expansive precip field. I think it's probably more realistic in that regard, although it clearly is indicating dry air will eat into the moisture and limit QPF. As Eric Webb has indicated, the WAA should beat out dry air relative to what the models are showing. More and more January 2014 seems to be a really solid analog
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Womp womp... I think the triangle is going to end up right on the line, but the triad may be out of the significant snow potential
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Seems reasonable
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My gut is the GFS is going to come in a bit more south. Proves me wrong GFS!
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I mean, these are pretty massive differences for 3.5 days out
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Meanwhile the RGEM looks juiced at 84 hours
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I count 3 (6%) that have moderate to heavy snow for the I85 crowd. So while trends are good, if the pendulum stops at 12z, this may well remain an I95 special
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Vs 6z. Differences mostly noise I think
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My understanding is ratios over about 15:1 are pretty hard to achieve. Also, have to consider compaction being more of a factor when it comes to storm total snow depth
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Overall a step back towards consensus on the Canadian. More positive tilt to the trough
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Slightly more suppressed than last run but minor changes
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Does the RGEM generally follow in close step with the CMC? Or more like how the GFS and NAM aren't really closely related?
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I believe the ICON verification scores are below most every other major global model TBF
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H5 looks like a step in the right direction but surface is extremely suppressed
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Check out this sounding on the Canadian at GSO. The part of the sounding marked in yellow represents the layer where temps are optimal for dendrites, i.e. the highest possible snow ratios. Never seen anything like it in these parts, pure weenie fuel!
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While we wait for 12z... a helpful guide for our friends on the coast
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I'm
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Definitely a tend towards hugging the coast. Could be one of those classic storms where Raleigh gets 6"+ and Greensboro gets an inch or two
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You've been tracking this thing longer than your average Vegas marriage! Gotta take a break from time to time.
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18z eps
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another step in the right direction! Hopefully 0z will be the model suite to draw us back in, in the Piedmont https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1880034827464044968
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Still pretty squashed but light snow over the FL panhandle
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Iight snow breaking out over Louisiana at 114, definite improvement, should be a decent run for the coast
