olafminesaw

0z Euro AI was Ice ice baby. Proves your point about the cold holding back to the west, because the track is quite nice

Typically to get a transition zone that mixes with overrunning events. Basically the cold front stalls over our region and warm moist air to the south is what is both providing the moisture as well as warming the mid levels, while cold air reinforces itself from the cold/dry air to the north. An overrunning event can produce heavy wintry precip without a strong low pressure system developing along the boundary at all, although this does tend to happen eventually as the push of warm air occludes with the cold front once it rounds the corner of the trough. https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/behind-the-weather-the-science-behind-overrunning-100931920

Nice to see the Atlantic isn't bath water for once

Always good when the new England crowd is thinking the pattern will be too suppressed for them

The Euro AI says don't give up on the Monday system

Feels like a more plausible version of yesterday's Euro run.

18z only runs out to 144 hrs

Let's just say Brick is fortunate he's not as passionate about slot machines as he is snow

I've been around long enough to know, that combo is a lock for DC special, or clear blue skies with falling iguananas alerts in Florida

Also...

I can't imagine there have been very many storms where the max for the state of Georgia is over Altanta

I have no idea, all the Mets on Twitter seem to think once it changes over it will be all sleet. But the Hires NAM has the same progression, so I wouldn't totally discount it

The HRRR does seem to have a good handle on the sleet line right now and pushes it back south in an hour or two. A possiblity anyway, not sure that I would expect it

Something I never thought about, why do the obs often include mist while snow is falling? Like GSO obs currently read "light snow, mist". Is this to do with the visibility?

First flake sighted! South Greensboro

Only at 31 at 1 pm, I seriously doubt we hit close to our forecast high of 37 today!

GRAF is the same https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds/status/1877671619683848519

HRRR holds steady. The sleet fluctuates back and forth over Guilford county for the second half of the storm

There really aren't any models showing precip before around 5pm, but also these overrunning events tend to start 2-3 hours earlier than modeled (at least as far as light flurry action goes)