olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The GFS is still the Northern outlier, maybe a tiny step towards the rest of guidance at 6z. Nice to see the model on an an island with everything else being favorable for once and not the other way around! -
Anyone look back fondly on the old NCEP maps? They've changed a bit, but not much!
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Good summary! Our resident Debbie Downers wouldn't know a good storm chance if it kicked them in the face!
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Zero complaints
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Seems reasonable
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Average out the GFS and Euro and you get a solid storm
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Positive changes at H5 on the Euro
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Would be a January 2022 redux in the triad
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Just a reminder that ZR accumulation maps aren not realistic, especially with heavy precip.
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Much better thermals for sure
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I agree, and also the upside could come from the backside if the storm bombs out off the coast, as the GFS hints at. I think we want to risk mixing with a stronger storm at this point, because we will run into surface temp issues with a sheared system.
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Trough orientation looks better than the prior run
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The AI version tilts neutral just in time, while OP Euro stays positive. I am guessing it is related to the Baja energy
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Comparing the Euro this morning to the GFS 36 hours ago, totally different look at H5. We need the trough to tilt more neutral, which is why the system is so weak / sheared on the Euro (positively tilted trough = weak system)
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At this range the Euro AI was much further north than the rest of guidance with today's storm. The correct solution was between the Euro AI and the consensus. So hopefully it will prove a useful tool to see which direction model consensus is wrong at least
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Happens all the time in March!
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The biggest surprise isn't the burst of snow, it's the sub-freezing temps. The magic of low dewpoints!
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I mean, the models last night all supported a happy medium to some degree, aside from the Euro. Not a blockbuster storm, but 2-6" across the region is certainly still on the table, and the model average supports that idea for now. Certainly we can fail on one side or the other,but last night's runs were solid
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To prove your point, the 6 z Euro is missed the phase entirely
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That's a good look. Best case scenario would be overrunning much like tommorow's system, just much further south
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The 6z Euro is super amped. We need to figure out a way to get some cold air ASAP
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What's with everyone reporting mudslides?
