olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Does anyone have the NBM trends for precip over the past few models cycles? My sense is models trended wetter generally through 6z until the 12z models generally took a step back in terms of QPF -
Will be nice to have instant stickage with highs in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens leading up to the storm
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As we look at precip type over the next few days, just need to keep in mind the sleet line will come much further north than modeled and the flip from sleet to ZR will be slower than expected. At least that's how these dynamic storms normally play out
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I would focus on track with the UKMET, does funky things with thermals.
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The 12z GFS aligns pretty closely with the 6z GEFS. Let's see if the OP is adjusting to match it's ensembles, or if the trend is south on the ensembles as well
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I have nothing to complain about, but if I was going to, it's the timing of this thing. Right now looks like we get very little snowfall during daylight hours.
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RAH now has snow likely 70% chance of precip in my forecast Friday night!
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The GFS is still the Northern outlier, maybe a tiny step towards the rest of guidance at 6z. Nice to see the model on an an island with everything else being favorable for once and not the other way around!
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Anyone look back fondly on the old NCEP maps? They've changed a bit, but not much!
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Good summary! Our resident Debbie Downers wouldn't know a good storm chance if it kicked them in the face!
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Zero complaints
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Seems reasonable
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Average out the GFS and Euro and you get a solid storm
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Positive changes at H5 on the Euro
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Would be a January 2022 redux in the triad
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Just a reminder that ZR accumulation maps aren not realistic, especially with heavy precip.
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Much better thermals for sure
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I agree, and also the upside could come from the backside if the storm bombs out off the coast, as the GFS hints at. I think we want to risk mixing with a stronger storm at this point, because we will run into surface temp issues with a sheared system.
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Trough orientation looks better than the prior run
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The AI version tilts neutral just in time, while OP Euro stays positive. I am guessing it is related to the Baja energy
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Comparing the Euro this morning to the GFS 36 hours ago, totally different look at H5. We need the trough to tilt more neutral, which is why the system is so weak / sheared on the Euro (positively tilted trough = weak system)
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At this range the Euro AI was much further north than the rest of guidance with today's storm. The correct solution was between the Euro AI and the consensus. So hopefully it will prove a useful tool to see which direction model consensus is wrong at least
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Happens all the time in March!
