olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Comes north slightly in the end, but not much different than 6z
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A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54
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Slightly south with a stronger HP
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Same for the RGEM. It does have a good period of sleet but heavy ZR with temps in the low to mid 20s
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That warm nose is incredible given the precip hasn't even arrived yet
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Not much difference overall I guess but if we wanted to trend towards a stronger wedge it moved in the right direction
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Diabolical sounding for Raleigh
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Chance of major ice impacts
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Seems reasonable for now. I still think we get mostly sleet in the triad, but better to prepare for ice if it's a coinflip
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php
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This is a communications nightmare for news outlets. Could be 5" of sleet and minimal icing or half an inch of ice. The 5" of sleet is more likely, but when some models are spitting out significant icing it's hard to ignore knowing that it's better to be prepared for the worst
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I don't really think the NAM is better in that regard. A dry slot would mean hours of freezing drizzle during the first half of the storm that would otherwise be sleet with heavier rates/a more southerly track. In fact, I am convinced that is the only way a crippling ice storm will play out East of the Apps
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The 6z Euro coming in a bit South, no major changes
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Yeah that does look like a meaningful improvement
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Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)
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the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking
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February 94 as well.
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What in the heck is that mess? I think the red and orange should be flipped?
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Euro vs GFS, big differences still
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Come on Euro. Make happy hour great again
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We kinda already have a bit I think in general. Really need the Euro to move in that direction, it has been stubborn
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Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East
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I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.
