olafminesaw

I think the one after is the one to watch. At least outside the mountains

Notably, variability up until Thanksgiving and then stays below average temps all the way to the end of the run.

A pretty wild elevation dependent snow event coming for NE PA, the forecast is calling for 1-2" for Scranton at about 1,000 feet of elevation and for a foot of snow above 2,000 feet. That would be torture!

Feels like the last time cold air made it over the mountains without moderating considerably was the 2022 Christmas arctic blast. Certainly nothing with any staying power.

I'm surprised not to see an appearance from @GaWx with updates on the ensemble forecast. Though odds are low for any threat on early December, I normally expect deep dive analysis from even the most far fetched of threats.

We may have an opportunity at freezing Tommorow night, to avoid the record. Usually we expect to have dropped into the mid 20s by now

Not at any of the long term climate stations. Probably some isolated stations have dropped to freezing.

Also seems to be annular.The only annual cyclone I can think of this season

The core very much intact after interacting with the island. Successfully completed an ERC right before landfall

With the Eye going directly over then may have missed the worst of the surge. The small villages on the north end of the island on the other hand...

The GEFS illustrated the two scenarios well from an intensity perspective. Still need to watch and see if models trend back East.

https://x.com/PivotalWeather/status/1856751025610203429 Weenies rejoice! The Euro now goes out to 360 hrs on Pivotal Weather

Agreed. All major models (Euro, Icon GFS, UKMET), now make landfall somewhere in Central America. A track into the Gulf after landfall is now more of a 50/50 proposition at this point as well.

Less than 3 hours apart

Deja Vu intensifies

Looking back over the past 60 years at GSO there is a correlation between warm temps in October and November and lower snowfall totals. It's possible some of this is due to the warmer months falling in more recent years due to global warming and heat island which also affects snow totals. See data below: Average snowfall : 8.23 Average snowfall top 20 warmest November temps: 6.49 Mid 20 Nov : 9.42 Bottom 20 Nov : 8.79 Top 20 Oct : 6.71 Mid 29 Oct : 9.93 Bottom 20 Oct : 8.06 October came in ranked 11th and November has a 76% chance to surpass the top 20 warmest in this dataset per the IEM ensemble scenarios comparison tool. So basically add historical correlations between warm fall temps and low snowfall totals to the growing pile of reasons we will fail this year

Good point about the timing. I kinda wonder if records should be keep in a rolling 24 hour period where the highest value would be assigned to the date with more hours total hours in that timeframe. Obviously only makes sense for records rather than daily statistics.

GSO has surpassed the latest sub-40 low temp on record, set November 6 2004. December 1st is the latest first freeze on record, which seems achievable at this rate (although some signs of cooler air in the long range)

It continues to shock me just how feast or famine this year has been. Feels like we haven't had a stretch of normal variable weather all year. Stuck in the same pattern and then a pattern change and stuck in that pattern for a while, rinse, repeat

BWI: 9.8" DCA: 8.7" IAD: 13.1" RIC: 2.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1"

Big structural improvements overnight, should be ready to take off.

Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded.

Tropical storm coming at the next advisory per Tropical tidbits.

Seeing a PRE setting up associated with Rafael. Thankfully not currently much reason to believe heavier rainfall will set up over the mountains. Both the Euro and GFS agree central Georgia is the area to watch.