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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Like an angry hornet and Jamaica just stepped on it's nest
  2. olafminesaw
    If we go off the assumption that the 11 am center fix from NHC is correct, it tracked a hair East of what satellite is showing. Also a close up of where the line is
  3. olafminesaw
    Sooo close. He experienced the max winds that's for sure. Start to be concerned about surge in his location. The caveat is that satellite is a little off from reality based on the curvature of the earth I believe
  4. olafminesaw
    The center of the eye is likely to pass very close to White house (maybe just East)
  5. olafminesaw
    Without a nearby radar it's hard to say for sure, but his location is just West of the 11 am fix, so I think it's likely he got into the eye
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Black River looks to bear the brunt of the right eyewall. Population 4,261. Looks to me like more of a local residential area with not as many resorts
  8. olafminesaw
    That's my concern. There are tons of homes scattered among the hills if you look on satellite, that aren't marked as towns on the map
  9. olafminesaw
    Dorian gives some hope, because a lot of the structures are similar: solid cinder block construction. The concern is the roofs blowing off.
  10. olafminesaw
    Treasure Beach may take the brunt of the surge
  11. olafminesaw
    Jaw on floor
  12. olafminesaw
    The next recon should make another pass in an hour or so
  13. olafminesaw
    Thank you! Glad Kevin was able to grab an image. Yeah, Melissa's core has been one of the most resilient I can remember since perhaps Dorian and Irma at such a high intensity. It's one of the biggest gaps in weather forecasting, we don't really have any good metrics for predicting ERCs. The hurricane models actually usually do a pretty good job and were spot on in predicting a stable eye through landfall once it reached cat 4 strength
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    That pressure gradient is insane. Reading 992 MB at this point
  16. olafminesaw
    I mean per the 5 pm track, it could track within (to the West side) the cone and the center could still miss landfall West of the island, so per the NHC it is well within the realm of possibility
  17. olafminesaw
    Recon has taken off, should get some more data in a couple hours
  18. olafminesaw
    Of course not, I just mean totals are a 4 standard deviation instead of a 5 standard deviation event, or whatever.
  19. olafminesaw
    Lots of parallels to Helene in western NC from a flooding standpoint. Somewhat similar topograph/rainfall amounts/duration. Jamaica can probably handle it a little better with heavy rainfall from tropical systems being much more common in that part of the world
  20. olafminesaw
    Definitely making the turn
  21. olafminesaw
    Pressure still dropping
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    In fact, too soon to say but that may be starting now. Westward progress halted the last few frames and wobbled South
  24. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba
  25. olafminesaw
    The only one I could find that made a sharp turn was Mitch, didn't seem to significantly weaken when making the turn, but did weaken gradually not too long after. Matthew maintained Cat 4 strength well after the turn, but did weaken slightly
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