olafminesaw

Yeah, definitely a long shot but I think we could too. This look is the kind of thread the needle that sometimes works in January (even with the lack of any real cold air mass)

Extrapolating the 384 hr GFS is an excercise in futility, but this would be a really good look:

Definitely less moisture behind the front on the morning models. We'll see but the problem is there's really only a 1-2 hr window for snow now and not as much moisture in that window either. It does seem the precip type panels are underestimating how quickly the changeover will take place, but this kinda ends up as a wash due to melting at those temps. I think .1" QPF is a pretty reasonable bet. Which we can't assume will be much more than 10:1 ratios. The HRRR does seem to have some banding features which may yield some more localized totals. For that reason I would go with .5-1.5" with localized 2"+

Worth monitoring, but I feel like we can weigh it lightly until it gets inside about 12-18 hrs. That being said, the afternoon trends have been to diminish snowfall somewhat.

Looks like a fine day for a brisk sail on Lake Erie Friday afternoon, with 20 foot waves, negative 20 windchills and 50 mph sustained winds!

And it's sandwiched up against a bomb that could produce LP records in that region (don't have time to research, but could drop into the 960s). The wind field is incredible

At minimum it's 36 hours lead time. So probably they will go up this evening or tommorow morning Edit: at maximum 36 hours

This is a weenie model, but it shows the potential that exists for some really heavy snow at the backend of the front. Even if it's short lived, it could get us to 2" in short order. I do suspect that moisture will be cut off quickly, once any dynamic lift shuts off.

TBH, we may not really know how much will fall until about 8-12 hours before the event. Mesoscale models will be key. It does seem that the door has been closed on more than 3" though

Definitely a thread the needle/depend on a stronger storm to produce it's own cold kind of setup. Not exactly our bread and butter, but what else do we have to track?

I agree. People knock 10:1 maps, but it's really much better for comparing run to run differences. Even so it probably will have some changeover timing issues, with how quick the front is moving through.

Right, I guess that's the issue is technically the NWS forecast is correct. But it makes it look like the temp will drop to 10 in the early morning before rising to 33 in the afternoon. The only way I can think to present this better is to make the low match the high and put the little arrow indicator showing that the temp falls throughout the day. (None of this really matters, I just think it's wonky)

Lol, yeah, I've noticed the Thursday night forecast has been broken all day. Or is this just how it works and is pulling the afternoon temperature based on when the cut off timeframe they set for the low temp? Either way, seems like a good way to confuse the public.

In case you were wondering why this is close to record breaking December cold, check out where the air is coming from!

Hard to say what ratios will be like. But the bulk of the time that moisture and cold overlap (per the GFS anyway), Is pretty much ideal for dendrite growth. As for whether they get obliterated by the wind, no clue

Yeah... It's dry up there for sure

Yeah, that's kinda what I'm thinking. Might get a little sketchy around Beckley/NRG, but thankfully that route sticks to fairly low elevation.

Yep! Trying to drive up on Friday soooo...

Could have a band of heavy precip that cools the column and leads to a quicker changeover. Could drop a couple inches of snow in an hour, depending on the timing of the cold with the precip.

Going to be incredible waves on lake Michigan

Retreating cold too. The Canadian looks intriguing though so, at least something to track I suppose

Ugh, thank you. Now it's just a matter of figuring out if it's a terrible idea to tackle frozen roads with AWD. It's going to be mostly highway, (RT19/I-79) which might be okay, depending on a number of factors.

Lol, the ULL rounds the corner like one of those fair rides that gives you whiplash. Probably something like that is the only way we can score in this pattern

Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time.