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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. I know I know, this one's free to access, otherwise I would of course have picked higher of kuchera or 10:1
  2. Hmm, getting back in the game again as alluded to yesterday?
  3. It's frustrating, because at the surface this looks like it's setting up for something really good. Then it gets suppressed to oblivion
  4. Yeah, unfortunately southern stream systems have been getting squashed. Not much from ensembles to suggest optimism for this system right now, but as you say, bears watching. It's right in that optimum window where if the plinko chip jumps to the left, we're in business.
  5. I also feel like the constant stream of systems prevents the blocking from ever progressing far enough East. Every low either gets squashed by the HP to the West or pulled north by the system ahead of it.
  6. Any snow before Christmas is bonus snow. Let's wait until then and see how the pattern shakes out, once the Arctic air has been established. If we continue to get pushes of cold air, we're bound to score eventually (even if we have to wait until mid January)
  7. Still a long shot on the table for the upcoming weekend
  8. Our next system to watch is this coming weekend. Looks suppressed for now, but definitely worth keeping an eye on:
  9. Don't know if I've ever seen an ensemble run this anomalous at this range
  10. Meh. It was probably never going to be our storm, at least if you wanted any snow. The 18z Euro has a stronger HP though, so we shall see if a bit of an ice storm can still develop
  11. I've noticed the GFS had been unrealistically bombing out coastal storms lately. Seems like a 970mb low deepening that quickly is just a tad unrealistic. A weaker storm would mean rain for the coastal plain
  12. Perhaps, flooding rains before the cold moves in (pretty decent amounts for a smoothed mean)
  13. Nearly the entire eastern half of the US has cloud cover. Seems unusual to me.
  14. Our last look at the sun for a while too. A persistent wedge is the worst kind of weather, especially in December
  15. I would imagine a -NAO/-PNA would work out a lot better in January. Hopefully moving the PNA closer to neutral by then anyhow
  16. Generally the kind of look to hope for at this range. Of course, we have about 5 days of waiting before we can get much better an idea of what will happen
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