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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I am guessing rain will be on the low side of forecast in the triad. Many approaching 3", but if the HRRR is to be believed, heavier rain bands will be more hit or miss from here on out. Still many hours to go. On the other hand wind way over performed. The NWS was calling for gusts under 30 mph, but GSO has reported 5 out of the last 6 hours with gusts over 40mph and one gust to 47
  2. olafminesaw
    For the triad a dry slot approaches. Remains to be seen how much it fills in.
  3. olafminesaw
    Some homes in that area but not a heavily populated area. May have been a direct hit on the solar farm though. (Didn't realize we had anything at that scale in NC)
  4. olafminesaw
    It's really picked up speed. At this rate she will make landfall by late afternoon/early evening
  5. olafminesaw
    Wow, up to 60mph, I wasn't expecting that at all after the NHC reduced landfall strength to 50mph
  6. olafminesaw
    Seems to be trending West with the track after landfall. May be a big event for upslope areas especially near the VA border
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Yeah I mean think of the most extreme example, Harvey. Obviously a totally different situation, but most of the extreme rainfall fell after if dropped to a weak TS/TD. I remember reading somewhere that the majority of fresh water flooding from TCs comes from TSs and TDs
  9. olafminesaw
    It's been a bit of a trend in that direction, but hard to buy into the GFS when it's such an outlier from all other models.
  10. olafminesaw
    The 11 am advisory has Debby right at the coast just south of Tybee island. It is still expected to reach 60 mph before landfall and maintenance TS strength deep into central NC. Keep in mind even though the track makes it look like Debby won't spend much time over water, it won't make landfall again for another 36-48 hours
  11. olafminesaw
    Seems like every flood event there's somewhere that's supposed to get crushed that doesn't and somewhere that's on the fringe that gets way more than expected. It's near impossible to predict where so the forecast is always smoothed out, and an unrealistic depiction of reality. Which frustrates the general public, but there's not a great alternative.
  12. olafminesaw
    It does seem like most of the coastal areas will get a dry slot as the center passes. A lot of models push a lot of the moisture to the west side of the storm once the storm has made it back over water and starts moving inland. This is where the bad flooding will occur. Probably impacting the SC coast the most.
  13. olafminesaw
    Raleigh now in the high risk of excessive rainfall day 3 (Thursday), the Triad in the moderate.
  14. olafminesaw
    Still seeing big differences between the GFS and The rest of the models. It sure is stubborn!
  15. olafminesaw
    The majority cluster moves the storm much further inland/West than most globals, matches close to the UKMET
  16. olafminesaw
    There's also a fairly significant amount of shear evident on satellite if you watch the West side of the storm. Should be a shell of it's former self once it reaches the Atlantic.
  17. olafminesaw
    The SC coast is under a moderate risk of high risk for 4 straight days.
  18. olafminesaw
    0z vs 12 UKMET
  19. olafminesaw
    Radar can be deceptive, but after stalling out for a while it seems to be moving slowly NE again
  20. olafminesaw
    The WPC is bullish on heavy rain inland. Coastal areas still the main risk region with the possibility for the biggest flood event since Florence.
  21. olafminesaw
    Crazy the differences between the GFS and Euro 3 days out! Big differences in rain totals for the Piedmont. Coastal areas especially in South Carolina of course should get soaked regardless
  22. olafminesaw
    GFS takes a big step North towards the Euro
  23. olafminesaw
    Still a lot to resolve wrt track
  24. olafminesaw
    Just in time to take advantage of dmin Tommorow morning
  25. olafminesaw
    Getting more and more symmetrical. Rare to see a TD with such a clear CoC
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